Changes in daily precipitation under enhanced greenhouse conditions

 An increase in global average precipitation of about 10% is simulated by two global climate models with mixed layer oceans in response to an equilibrium doubling of carbon dioxide. The UKHI model was developed in the United Kingdom at the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and the CSIRO9 model was developed in Australia by the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research. Regional changes in daily precipitation simulated by these models have been compared. Both models simulate fewer wet days in middle latitudes, and more wet days in high latitudes. At middle and low latitudes, there is a shift in the precipitation type toward more intense convective events, and fewer moderate non-convective events. At high latitudes, the precipitation type remains non-convective and all events simply get heavier, resulting in fewer light events and more moderate and heavy events. The probability of heavy daily precipitation increases by more than 50% in many locations. Extreme events with a probability of 1% or less were considered in terms of return periods (the average period between events of the same magnitude). For a given return period of at least 1 y, precipitation intensity in Europe, USA, Australia and India increases by 10 to 25%. For a given precipitation intensity, the average return period becomes shorter by a factor of 2 to 5. Given that larger changes in frequency occur for heavier simulated events, changes may be even greater for more-extreme events not resolved by models. Received: 1 July 1996 / Accepted: 21 March 1997     

Simulated ENSO-tropical rainfall teleconnections in present-day and under enhanced greenhouse gases conditions

El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability and its relationship with precipitation in the tropics and subtropics are analysed using the ARPEGE-OPA ocean-atmosphere coupled model. Three 150-year simulations are considered, differing by greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols concentrations. The first one has constant (1950 level) concentrations, and the two others follow observed values till 1999, then the SRES B2 scenario until 2099. The model is able to reproduce most present-day features characteristic of ENSO in the Pacific. It also displays ENSO as the leading mode of sea-surface temperature (SST) variability, with spatial patterns and explained variance both quite similar to the observation. A detailed analysis of its teleconnections with rainfall variability is carried out on a seasonal basis. Patterns for the last part of the twentieth century compare favourably with the observation, with the notable exception of parts of the Atlantic sector. The overall strong rainfall response arises from the strong interannual variability of simulated ENSO, and also suggests an ability to simulate atmospheric dynamics in a realistic way. In the future climate, the model does not exhibit major changes in the ENSO/rainfall teleconnections. However, on a regional basis, there is some evidence of strengthening (e.g., in parts of Southern Africa) and weakening (e.g., East Africa) in the course of the twenty-first century. In most cases, decadal swings in the correlations suggest that these alterations may partly reflect natural changes in the teleconnections with ENSO, long-term correlation trends (possibly GHG-induced) being comparatively weaker.     

On the control of subantarctic stratification by the ocean circulation

Climate Dynamics - A shallow mixed layer depth bias in Austral winter in the Subantarctic Zone is a common feature of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models, including the Community...     

A unified linear theory of wavelike perturbations under general ocean conditions

A linearized instability analysis model with five unknowns was proposed to describe disturbance motions under general oceanic background conditions, including large-scale current shear, density stratification, frontal zone, and arbitrary topography. A unified linear theory of wavelike perturbations for surface gravity waves, internal gravity waves and inertial gravity waves was derived for the adiabatic case, and the solution was then found using Fourier integrals. In this theory, we discarded the assumptions widely accepted in the literature concerning derivations of wave motions such as the irrotationality assumption for surface gravity waves, the rigid-lid approximation for internal gravity waves, and the long-wave approximation for inertial gravity waves. Analytical solutions based on this theory indicate that the complex dispersion relationships between frequency and wave-number describing the propagation and development of the three types of wavelike perturbation motions include three components: complex dispersion relationships at the sea surface; vertical invariance of the complex frequency; and expressions of the vertical wave-number (phase). Classical results of both surface waves and internal waves were reproduced from the unified theory under idealized conditions. The unified wave theory can be applied in the dynamical explanation of the generation and propagation properties of internal waves that are visible in the satellite SAR images in the southern part of the China Seas. It can also serve as the theoretical basis for both a numerical internal-wave model and analytical estimation of the ocean fluxes transported by wavelike perturbations.     

Dimethylsulphide production in the Southern Ocean using a nitrogen-based flow network model and field measurements from ACE-1

Dimethylsulphide (DMS) has been implicated in climate change as a possible negative feedback to global warming, and several Models have been developed that simulate the production of DMS in the marine environment. The focus of this study is to improve the nitrogen based Gabric Model, using field data collected during the Southern Hemisphere First Marine Aerosol Characterisation Experiment (ACE-1) in the Southern Ocean in 1995. Two Model Runs (Series A and B) were carried out with six simulations of varying biotic and abiotic inputs applied over the voyage transect (41-48°S), reflecting Model default values or field values from the experiment. The abiotic inputs were time-step, dissolved dimethylsulphoniopropionate (DMSP) and DMS, and the biotic nitrogen inputs were from phytoplankton, bacteria, zooflagellates, large protozoa, micro and mesozooplankton. The focus of the abiotic assessment was nutrient (nitrate) uptake and dissolved DMSP and DMS output. Model output of the biotic compartments was assessed for congruence with predicted ecological patterns of succession.

Despite a limited data set the study provides a good insight into the utility of the Model, which functioned as a heuristic rather than predictive tool. In simulation 1 (Series A) where the only field value was nitrate, all latitudes from 41-48°S concurred with the ecological succession predicted by the Model authors and the successional pattern predicted by other researchers, with a double phytoplankton peak indicating remineralisation of nitrogen via the microbial loop. In many simulations the Model produced lower values of dissolved DMS than were measured, and production of DMS in the Model appears constrained. However, in simulation 5 (Series A) DMS model outputs were closest to the mean dissolved DMS levels reported on RV Discoverer. In this simulation, field values were used for phytoplankton, nitrate, dissolved DMSP and DMS, with bacterial abundance and micro and mesozooplankton increased over their Gabric default values. Also, the phytoplankton double peak occurred earlier, as did the peaks in bacteria, zooflagellates, and large protozoa. Simulations that deviated more significantly from the predicted successional patterns were characterised by single peaks in phytoplankton growth and delayed bacterial growth. Series C simulations at latitude 43°S, in an attempt to reduce phytoplankton predation by bacteria, increased DMS output reasonably successfully. However, significant recalibration of the Model is recommended in conjunction with field studies to gather vital background biological data - particularly in the areas of nutrient limitation, phytoplankton speciation, and the cellular content of the DMS precursor compound, DMSP.     

冬暖式大棚内茄子栽培气象条件分析

应用2003年1-4月、10-12月在寿光蔬菜基地的冬暖式大棚内茄子栽培生长情况所取得的温度、光照和湿度资料及同一时期外部环境气象资料,分析了冬暖式大棚内的温度、光照及湿度等气象条件对越冬茄子的影响情况,提出了改进措施。     

Global comparison of the regional rainfall results of enhanced greenhouse coupled and mixed layer ocean experiments: Implications for climate change scenario development

The extent of agreement amongst current global climate models (GCMs) on the global pattern of rainfall change simulated under enhanced greenhouse conditions is assessed. We consider the results of five experiments which use a simple mixed layer ocean formulation and five which use a fully dynamic ocean model (coupled experiments). For many regions of the northern hemisphere there is strong agreement amongst both mixed layer and coupled experiments on the sign of simulated rainfall change. However, in the southern hemisphere there are large, and apparently systematic, differences between the coupled and mixed layer experiments. In particular, whereas the mixed layer experiments agree on simulated rainfall increase in summer in the tropics and subtropics of the Australian sector, the coupled experiments agree (although more weakly) on rainfall decreases. These differences appear to relate to the much reduced warming simulated by the coupled experiments in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. However, recent oceanographie evidence suggests that this suppressed warming may be considerably overestimated. We conclude therefore that despite the in-principle advantages of coupled models, it may be too soon to base some regionally specific climate change scenarios solely on the results of coupled experiments.     

Water-Soluble dicarboxylic acids, ketoacids and dicarbonyls in the atmospheric aerosols over the southern ocean and western pacific ocean

Water-soluble dicarboxylic acids (DCAs), ketoacids, and α-dicarbonyls in the marine aerosol samples collected over the Southern Ocean and western Pacific Ocean were determined. Oxalic acid was the most abundant species, followed by malonic acid and then succinic acid. It is suggested that aerosol concentrations of the organics over the Southern Ocean in this work represent their global background levels. Over the Southern Ocean, total concentrations of DCAs ranged from 2.9 to 7.2 ng m⁻³ (average: 4.5 ng m⁻³), ketoacids from 0.14 to 0.40 ng m⁻³ (av.: 0.28 ng m⁻³), and dicarbonyls from 0.06 to 0.29 ng m⁻³ (av.: 0.11 ng m⁻³). Over the western Pacific, total concentrations of DCAs ranged from 1.7 to 170 ng m⁻³ (av.: 60 ng m⁻³), ketoacids from 0.08 to 5.3 ng m⁻³ (av.: 1.8 ng m⁻³), and dicarbonyls from 0.03 to 4.6 ng m⁻³ (av.: 0.95 ng m⁻³). DCAs over the western Pacific have constituted a large fraction of organic aerosols with a mean DCAs-C/TC (total carbon) of 7.0% (range: 0.59–14%). Such a high value was in contrast to the low DCAs-C/TC (av.: 1.8%; range: 0.89–4.0%) for the Southern Ocean aerosols. Based on the relative abundances and latitudinal distributions of these organics, we propose that long-range atmospheric transport is more important over the western Pacific Ocean, in contrast, in situ photochemical production is more significant over the Southern Ocean although absolute concentrations of the organics are much lower.     

Sensitivity of the southern annular mode to greenhouse gas emission scenarios

The leading mode of southern hemisphere (SH) climatic variability, the southern annular mode (SAM), has recently seen a shift towards its positive phase due to stratospheric ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. Here we examine how sensitive the SAM (defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function of SH sea level pressure anomalies) is to future GHG concentrations. We determine its likely evolution for three intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES) for austral summer and winter, using a multi-model ensemble of IPCC fourth assessment report models which resolve stratospheric ozone recovery. During the period of summer ozone recovery (2000–2050), the SAM index exhibits weakly negative, statistically insignificant trends due to stratospheric ozone recovery which offsets the positive forcing imposed by increasing GHG concentrations. Thereafter, positive SAM index trends occur with magnitudes that show sensitivity to the SRES scenario utilised, and thus future GHG emissions. Trends are determined to be strongest for SRES A2, followed by A1B and B1, respectively. The winter SAM maintains a similar dependency upon GHG as summer, but over the entire twenty-first century and to a greater extent. We also examine the influence of ozone recovery by comparing results to models that exclude stratospheric ozone recovery. Projections are shown to be statistically different from the aforementioned results, highlighting the importance of ozone recovery in governing SAM-evolution. We therefore demonstrate that the future SAM will depend both upon GHG emissions and stratospheric ozone recovery.     

Analysis of temperature series in Europe in relation to the detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect

Summary A method is developed for analysing climate series. It is based on the assumption that climate undergoes abrupt changes by natural means. It is a generalization of an existing method for dividing a series into two parts. It is assumed that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases will lead to a gradual climate change (trend) and that this change will be superimposed upon the natural abrupt changes (jumps). On the basis of these facts, jumps in the direction of a climate change resulting from the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to be stronger than those in the opposite direction and previous jumps in the same direction. Different criteria are used to support this assumption. The method of analysis is applied to time series of summer and winter temperatures of 13 European stations.The largest increases in temperature do not occur in the recent past; they occur around 1910 in winter and about 1930 in summer. As the test for detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is made stricter, the assumption put forward becomes weaker. Most time series do not have significant trends within various sub-periods. Differences in variability between successive sub-periods are generally not significant. There is agreement between the results reported here and others in the literature. So far, there is no definite evidence that the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases is affecting the climate of Europe.With 6 Figures     

Implications of climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on floods and droughts in Australia

Potential impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall events and flooding in the Australian region are explored using the results of a general circulation model (GCM) run in an equilibrium enhanced greenhouse experiment. In the doubled CO₂ simulation, the model simulates an increase in the frequency of high-rainfall events and a decrease in the frequency of low-rainfall events. This result applies over most of Australia, is statistically more significant than simulated changes in total rainfall, and is supported by theoretical considerations. We show that this result implies decreased return periods for heavy rainfall events. The further implication is that flooding could increase, although we discuss here the many difficulties associated with assessing in quantitative terms the significance of the modelling results for the real world.The second part of the paper assesses the implications of climate change for drought occurrence in Australia. This is undertaken using an off-line soil water balance model driven by observed time series of rainfall and potential evaporation to determine the sensitivity of the soil water regime to changes in rainfall and temperature, and hence potential evaporation. Potential impacts are assessed at nine sites, representing a range of climate regimes and possible climate futures, by linking this sensitivity analysis with scenarios of regional climate change, derived from analysis of enhanced greenhouse experiment results from five GCMs. Results indicate that significant drying may be limited to the south of Australia. However, because the direction of change in terms of the soil water regime is uncertain at all sites and for all seasons, there is no basis for statements about how drought potential may change.     

Mechanisms of enhanced ocean surface warming in the Kuroshio region for 1951–2010

Climate Dynamics - Since the early twentieth century, observations have shown that the ocean surface has warmed almost globally, but the rate of sea surface temperature (SST) rise in the Kuroshio...     

Consistent past half-century trends in the atmosphere, the sea ice and the ocean at high southern latitudes

Simulations performed with the climate model LOVECLIM, aided with a simple data assimilation technique that forces a close matching of simulated and observed surface temperature variations, are able to reasonably reproduce the observed changes in the lower atmosphere, sea ice and ocean during the second half of the twentieth century. Although the simulated ice area slightly increases over the period 1980–2000, in agreement with observations, it decreases by 0.5 × 10⁶ km² between early 1960s and early 1980s. No direct and reliable sea ice observations are available to firmly confirm this simulated decrease, but it is consistent with the data used to constrain model evolution as well as with additional independent data in both the atmosphere and the ocean. The simulated reduction of the ice area between the early 1960s and early 1980s is similar to the one simulated over that period as a response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere while the increase in ice area over the last decades of the twentieth century is likely due to changes in atmospheric circulation. However, the exact contribution of external forcing and internal variability in the recent changes cannot be precisely estimated from our results. Our simulations also reproduce the observed oceanic subsurface warming north of the continental shelf of the Ross Sea and the salinity decrease on the Ross Sea continental shelf. Parts of those changes are likely related to the response of the system to the external forcing. Modifications in the wind pattern, influencing the ice production/melting rates, also play a role in the simulated surface salinity decrease.     

A world ocean model for greenhouse sensitivity studies: resolution intercomparison and the role of diagnostic forcing

We have developed an improved version of a world ocean model with the intention of coupling to an atmospheric model. This article documents the simulation capability of this 1° global ocean model, shows improvements over our earlier 5° version, and compares it to features simulated with a 0.5° model. These experiments use a model spin-up methodology whereby the ocean model can subsequently be coupled to an atmospheric model and used for order 100-year coupled model integrations. With present-day computers, 1° is a reasonable compromise in resolution that allows for century-long coupled experiments. The 1° ocean model is derived from a 0.5°-resolution model developed by A. Semtner (Naval Postgraduate School) and R. Chervin (National Center for Atmospheric Research) for studies of the global eddy-resolving world ocean circulation. The 0.5° bottom topography and continental outlines have been altered to be compatible with the 1° resolution, and the Arctic Ocean has been added. We describe the ocean simulation characteristics of the 1° version and compare the result of weakly constraining (three-year time scale) the three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields to the observations below the thermocline (710 m) with the model forced only at the top of the ocean by observed annual mean wind stress, temperature, and salinity. The 1° simulations indicate that major ocean circulation patterns are greatly improved compared to the 5° version and are qualitatively reproduced in comparison to the 0.5° version. Using the annual mean top forcing alone in a 100-year simulation with the 1° version preserves the general features of the major observed temperature and salinity structure with most climate drift occurring mainly beneath the thermocline in the first 50–75 years. Because the thermohaline circulation in the 1° version is relatively weak with annual mean forcing, we demonstrate the importance of the seasonal cycle by performing two sensitivity experiments. Results show a dramatic intensification of the meridional overturning circulation (order of magnitude) with perpetual winter surface temperature forcing in the North Atlantic and strong intensification (factor of three) with perpetual early winter temperatures in that region. These effects are felt throughout the Atlantic (particularly an intensified and northward-shifted Gulf Stream outflow). In the Pacific, the temperature gradient strengthens in the thermocline, thus helping counter the systematic error of a thermocline that is too diffuse.Partial support is provided by the Office of Health and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

Simulated changes in daily rainfall intensity due to the enhanced greenhouse effect: implications for extreme rainfall events

In this study we present rainfall results from equilibrium 1 ×– and 2 × CO₂ experiments with the CSIRO 4-level general circulation model. The 1 × CO₂ results are discussed in relation to observed climate. Discussion of the 2 × CO₂ results focuses upon changes in convective and non-convective rainfall as simulated in the model, and the consequences these changes have for simulated daily rainfall intensity and the frequency of heavy rainfall events. In doing this analysis, we recognize the significant shortcomings of GCM simulations of precipitation processes. However, because of the potential significance of any changes in heavy rainfall events as a result of the enhanced greenhouse effect, we believe a first examination of relevant GCM rainfall results is warranted. Generally, the model results show a marked increase in rainfall originating from penetrative convection and, in the mid-latitudes, a decline in largescale (non-convective) rainfall. It is argued that these changes in rainfall type are a consequence of the increased moisture holding capacity of the warmer atmosphere simulated for 2 × CO₂ conditions. Related to changes in rainfall type, rainfall intensity (rain per rain day) increases in the model for most regions of the globe. Increases extend even to regions where total rainfall decreases. Indeed, the greater intensity of daily rainfall is a much clearer response of the model to increased greenhouse gases than the changes in total rainfall. We also find a decrease in the number of rainy days in the middle latitudes of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. To further elucidate these results daily rainfall frequency distributions are examined globally and for four selected regions of interest. In all regions the frequency of high rainfall events increases, and the return period of such events decreases markedly. If realistic, the findings have potentially serious practical implications in terms of an increased frequency and severity of floods in most regions. However, we discuss various important sources of uncertainty in the results presented, and indicate the need for rainfall intensity results to be examined in enhanced greenhouse experiments with other GCMs.