Energy input and dissipation in a temperate lake during the spring transition

ADCP and temperature chain measurements have been used to estimate the rate of energy input by wind stress to the water surface in the south basin of Windermere. The energy input from the atmosphere was found to increase markedly as the lake stratified in spring. The efficiency of energy transfer (Eff), defined as the ratio of the rate of working in near-surface waters (RW) to that above the lake surface (P ₁₀), increased from ～0.0013 in vertically homogenous conditions to ～0.0064 in the first 40 days of the stratified regime. A maximum value of Eff～0.01 was observed when, with increasing stratification, the first mode internal seiche period decreased to match the diurnal wind period of 24 h. The increase in energy input, following the onset of stratification was reflected in enhancement of the mean depth-varying kinetic energy without a corresponding increase in wind forcing. Parallel estimates of energy dissipation in the bottom boundary layer, based on determination of the structure function show that it accounts for ～15% of RW in stratified conditions. The evolution of stratification in the lake conforms to a heating stirring model which indicates that mixing accounts for ～21% of RW. Taken together, these estimates of key energetic parameters point the way to the development of full energy budgets for lakes and shallow seas.     

基于氡同位素的平原湖荡枯水期湖水地下水补排通量

水是人类生存之源,而湖荡被称为地球之“肾”,是河湖水系连接的关键缓冲节点,与人类生存和发展息息相关。长三角平原水系众多,河流纵横,天然湖泊与人工沟渠遍布,平原湖荡湖水与周边地下水的水力联系较为频繁,而地下水对湖泊水均衡贡献尚不明确,对平原湖荡地下水赋存和运移规律的认识不足。本研究以苏州吴江区元荡湖为研究对象,选取氡同位素作为湖水和地下水水力交换过程的示踪剂,建立氡箱模型,揭示元荡湖不同区段与地下水的水力联系过程和补给关系,并通过水位动态验证分析湖水—地下水交互关系。枯水期元荡湖水位和氡浓度空间分布特征指示研究区内地下水向湖水排泄,其中以湖泊西侧较为明显,地下水入流补给的氡为7.137×10⁶ Bq/d,输入量源项占比为90%,地下水流入量为4540.801 m³/d,地下水每日流入量对元荡湖水量的贡献率为2.551%。参数敏感性分析结果表明,风速与地下水²²²Rn活度为特别敏感参数,取值差异较大时会导致计算误差急剧增大,改善测点布置和提高模型参数精度能有效提高模型计算结果的准确性和可靠程度。借助氡同位素示踪方法,建立湖泊...     

Parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes for a large shallow freshwater lake

Abstract

A parametric uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of hydrodynamic processes was conducted for a large shallow freshwater lake, Lake Taihu, China. Ten commonly used parameters in five groups were considered including: air–water interface factor, water–sediment interface factor, surrounding terrain factor, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) was used for sampling the parametric combinations, which gave predictive uncertainty results directly without using surrogate models, and the impacts of different parametric distribution functions on the results were investigated. The results showed that the different parametric distribution functions (e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal and triangular) for sampling had very little impact on the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the lake hydrodynamic model. The air–water interface factor (wind drag coefficient) and surrounding terrain factor (wind shelter coefficient) had the greatest influence on the spatial distribution of lake hydrodynamic processes, especially in semi-closed bays and lake regions with complex topography, accounting for about 60–70% and 20%, respectively, of the uncertainty on the results. Vertically, velocity in the surface layer was also largely influenced by the two factors, followed by velocity in the bottom layer; the middle velocity had minimal impact. Likewise, the water–sediment interface factor (i.e. bottom roughness height) ranked third, contributing about 10% to the uncertainty of the hydrodynamic processes of the lake. In contrast, turbulent diffusion parameters and turbulent intensity parameters in the lake hydrodynamic model had little effect on the uncertainty of simulated results (less than 1% contribution). The findings were sufficiently significant to reduce the parameter uncertainties and calibration workload of the hydrodynamic model in large shallow lakes.

Editor Z. W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor S. Grimaldi     

“引江济星”工程及风场环境影响广东肇庆星湖水龄分布特征

目前大量景观类湖泊在人工布局下呈现形状不规整的特点,容易造成湖湾水体滞留形成死水区,水质恶化问题日益突出,本文以星湖为研究区域,建立基于环境流体生态动力学(EFDC)模型的星湖水动力—风场耦合模型,以水龄作为衡量水体交换速率的指标,设计12种工况模拟计算不同出入湖通道布局及流量配比、"引江济星"工程和风场对星湖水龄时空分布的影响.结果表明:星湖水龄存在季节性和空间性分布差异,春季主导风向与湖体流动主方向互斥,抑制了波海湖水体交换,导致水龄在春季较长,而秋季南西南季风促进中心湖等水体交换,致使水龄偏短,也反映出风向的影响存在湖区空间异质性,风向为南东南时星湖整体水龄最小;入湖口通道布局及流量配比对湖区水体交换速率存在影响,以外坑为波海湖入湖口且波海湖、中心湖、仙女湖入流比为4∶3∶3时,星湖整体水龄最小,拟建的青莲湖出水口和仙女湖出水口能有效加快青莲湖东北部和仙女湖东南部的水体交换速率;综合考虑调水引流效益、经济投资、生态开发和占地的成本,方案二为最优调水引流方案.本研究强调入湖口布局、流量大小和比例、及风场等因素对城市内湖水体置换的影响,为人为干扰下的景观湖泊的治理和管控提供科学支撑.     

Modelling of waves in the Irish Sea: effects of oceanic wave and wind forcing

This study uses a series of scenarios of wave (boundary) and wind (local) forcing to examine the sensitivity and to quantify the effects associated with nesting ProWAM and POLCOMS models for downscaling predictions of waves in the Irish Sea. The model results show that the response of the modelling system to the wave and wind forcing during the downscaling varies widely depending on wind conditions. Generally, the wave forcing has a greater effect on overall wave prediction in most of the Irish Sea, except for the eastern Irish Sea/Liverpool Bay. The study also suggests detailed look-up tables at specific locations to quantify the impacts of the different forcing scenarios over the Irish Sea, which can be readily extended to the location on any other sites.     

Simulating seasonal to multi-decadal variation in lake thermal response to meteorological forcing using the UCLAKE 1-dimensional model code

Lake temperature responses to climate forcing are of interest on account of the important linkages between water temperature and ecosystem processes. This paper describes a new 1-dimensional (1D) numerical model code and its application to investigations of multi-scale linkages between the vertical temperature structure and meteorological forcing. UCLAKE is implemented as highly portable open-source software, based on computationally efficient algorithms, and able to resolve sub-daily (e.g., hourly) dynamics while retaining the efficiency to simulate multi-decadal time scales.A UCLAKE model is calibrated and validated against thermistor profile time series for a small upland lake in North Wales, UK. Some of the challenges in 1D model calibration are explored and a sensitivity analysis reveals a dependence of optimal parameter set values on water column depth and time. An exploratory 52-year hindcast simulation demonstrates the computational efficiency of UCLAKE for multi-decadal studies of trends in lake temperature that vary with depth. A supplementary application of UCLAKE to Windermere, in the English Lake District, demonstrates its performance for larger and deeper lakes.     

定常风对鄱阳湖水动力的影响

鄱阳湖属大风区,风场作为仅次于流域"五河"倾泻和长江顶托作用的另一重要驱动力,或在某些时刻影响局部区域的水流结构,进而影响局部水体中泥沙、污染物、营养盐等物质的输移和扩散.基于鄱阳湖二维水动力数学模型,模拟定常风场条件下的鄱阳湖流场分布及环流形式,并与无风条件下的水流时空结构进行对比.结果表明:3.03 m/s的NE向和SSW向定常风对湖泊水位影响微弱;对流速的影响主要集中在7月中旬至9月底的"湖相"期;其影响区域主要分布在湖区中部大湖面偏西岸及东部湖湾,约占湖泊最大水面积的16%;上述区域出现明显环流,环流结构具有时空异质性特点,环流区流速普遍增至无风时的两倍以上;NE向和SSW向风场产生的环流位置相近,方向相反.相比于以往鄱阳湖水动力研究中对风场的忽略,本次研究揭示了定常风场对鄱阳湖的重点影响区域、影响程度及影响形式,可为泥沙及污染物输移模拟中对风场条件的处理及可能带来的误差与误差的空间分布提供重要依据.     

鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟

本文以鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统为研究对象,鉴于该湖泊流域系统尺度较大,下垫面自然属性呈现高度空间异质性且具有流域-平原区-湖泊不同机制的水文水动力过程,为了真实描述湖泊流域间的水文水动力联系及反映不同过程间的作用机制,构建了鄱阳湖湖泊流域联合模拟模型.该模型基于自主研发的流域分布式水文模型WATLAC和湖滨平原区产流模型以及水动力模型MIKE 21 3个不同功能子模型的连接来实现该复杂系统的模拟.模型的联合采用输入-输出驱动及子模型的顺序执行进程,即将五大子流域与平原区入湖径流量作为输入条件来驱动湖泊水动力模型,模拟湖泊水位对流域入湖径流量的响应.以2000-2005年鄱阳湖流域6个水文站点的河道径流量、流域基流指数以及湖泊4个站点的水位资料来率定模型,其中各站点日径流量拟合的纳希效率系数E_ns为0.71~0.84,确定性系数R²介于0.70~0.88之间,而湖泊各站点水位拟合的纳希效率系数E_ns变化为0.88~0.98,确定性系数R²为0.96~0.98,均取得令人满意的率定结果.本文提出的鄱阳湖湖泊流域系统水文水动力联合模拟模型能较为理想再现湖泊水位对流域降雨-径流过程的响应.水位模拟结果进一步表明,该联合模型能用来获取重要的水动力空间变化特征.该模型可作为有效工具定量揭示湖泊流域系统水文水动力过程对气候变化和流域人类活动的响应.     

我国城市湖泊空间分布格局特征分析及影响因素探讨

城市湖泊作为城市与自然之间进行水气交换的蓝色空间,具有供水、防洪、休闲、气候调节以及改善城市生态环境等诸多生态服务功能。中国地域辽阔、城市众多,不同区域的城市湖泊受自然地理环境和社会经济发展等因素的影响而具有显著的空间差异特征。目前已有研究对我国省会城市和个别大型城市的湖泊空间分布及变化特征等开展研究,但全国范围内各行政等级单元内城市湖泊分布的空间格局及其影响因素仍缺乏综合分析。本研究基于中国城市湖泊数据集,从城市分布的地域单元、行政等级、城市规模3个方面对城市湖泊分布特征进行统计分析和比较,并结合自然和人类活动要素,初步探讨影响城市湖泊分布规模和丰度的主控因子。结果表明,2020年全国共有约11万个面积大于0.001km²城市湖泊(不包括太湖、滇池等大型湖泊),总面积约2112 km²,约占全国城市(遥感城市不透水层区域)面积的1.1%。城市湖泊的分布具有显著的集聚和分异特征,数量超过70%的城市湖泊分布在约20%的县(区)级行政单元,约21%的县(区)级行政单元基本没有(<10 m遥感影像分辨率下10个像元)城市湖泊分布。城市湖泊数...     

近40年洞庭湖区内湖水面面积变化及其驱动因素

选择1979-2016年间多时期、多类型、多光谱遥感数据,分析评价洞庭湖区内湖近40年的面积变化.结果表明,最近40年洞庭湖区内湖面积保持相对稳定,丰水期间呈上升趋势,枯水期间波动下降,2016年内湖总面积比1980s初减少3.94%.随着湖泊面积增加,湖泊水面面积变化的比例和幅度逐渐减小,大型湖泊（>10 km²）和中型湖泊（5~10 km²）面积相对稳定,小型内湖（<5 km²）面积变化尤为剧烈.内湖水面面积主要受降雨、蒸发等气候因素和生产生活取水、防洪排涝和退田还湖等人为活动调控.1980-2000年和2001-2015年两个时期,洞庭湖区多年平均降雨量呈现不同程度的下降趋势,多年平均蒸发量明显上升.三峡工程运行后,三口分流衰减,但水资源需求量不断增长,退田还湖和留蓄雨洪作为水资源使得丰水期间内湖水面面积增长,气候变化和水资源开发利用导致枯水期水面面积趋于减少.有必要加强洞庭湖区内湖的研究和保护,适当退田还湖提高湖泊率,优化三口水系格局,实施河湖水系连通工程,缓解洞庭湖区季节性水资源紧张问题.     

1975-2007年中亚干旱区内陆湖泊面积变化遥感分析

中亚干旱区内陆湖泊的湖面变化反映了气候波动和人类活动对流域水文过程的影响.本文以中亚干旱区平原区尾闾湖泊、吞吐湖泊和高山湖泊三类典型内陆湖泊为研究对象,利用1975-2007年Landsat遥感影像,基于归一化水体指数提取湖泊水域边界信息,分析近30年来内陆湖泊湖面变化特征.结果表明,近30年来,研究区内有超过一半的内...     

Monitoring the water balance of Lake Victoria, East Africa, from space

Using satellite gravimetric and altimetric data, we examine trends in water storage and lake levels of multiple lakes in the Great Rift Valley region of East Africa for the years 2003–2008. GRACE total water storage estimates reveal that water storage declined in much of East Africa, by as much as , while altimetric data show that lake levels in some large lakes dropped by as much as 1–2 m. The largest declines occurred in Lake Victoria, the Earth’s second largest freshwater body. Because the discharge from the outlet of Lake Victoria is used to generate hydroelectric power, the role of human management in the lake’s decline has been questioned. By comparing catchment water storage trends to lake level trends, we confirm that climatic forcing explains only about 50decline. This analysis provides an independent means of assessing the relative impacts of climate and human management on the water balance of Lake Victoria that does not depend on observations of dam discharge, which may not be publically available. In the second part of the study, the individual components of the lake water balance are estimated. Satellite estimates of changes in lake level, precipitation, and evaporation are used with observed lake discharge to develop a parameterization for estimating subsurface inflows due to changes in groundwater storage estimated from satellite gravimetry. At seasonal timescales, this approach provides closure to Lake Victoria’s water balance to within . The third part of this study uses the water balance of a downstream water body, Lake Kyoga, to estimate the outflow from Lake Victoria remotely. Because Lake Kyoga is roughly 20 times smaller in area than Lake Victoria, its water balance is strongly influenced by inflow from Lake Victoria. Lake Kyoga has been shown to act as a linear reservoir, where its outflow is proportional to the height of the lake. This model can be used with satellite altimetric lake levels to estimate a time series of Lake Victoria discharge with an rms error of about .     

有限水域近水面气流演化特征试验研究

气流作为湖泊、湿地等有限水域的主要驱动力之一,其演化特征是研究水-气间能量与物质传递的基础,决定了水域水环境与水生态格局,具有重要研究意义.采用室内风洞水槽,通过设置不同试验风速,研究近水面气流与风速和吹程的响应关系与演化特征,并将光滑壁面条件下的气流特征作为试验对照组,分析时间域内风速垂向分布形式、摩阻风速、特征粗糙...     

巴丹吉林沙漠湖泊水分补给机制的模拟——以苏木吉林湖区为例

巴丹吉林沙漠气候干旱,蒸发强烈,与之形成鲜明对比的是沙漠腹地湖泊群的长久不衰,目前对于湖泊水分的补给来源仍存在争议.本文以水量均衡为基础,在苏木吉林湖区开展了降水、蒸发及湖水位和地下水位的动态监测,结合已有的水文地质资料建立地下水流动三维模型,重现湖区地下水位的季节动态变化,并基于模型进行水均衡分析.结果表明:苏木吉林湖区降水入渗补给量不足以平衡湖泊蒸发量,湖泊需要深层承压水的越流补给;湖水位和地下水位均呈现正弦曲线形态,11月最低,4月达到峰值,水位变幅分别为22和18 cm;湖区地下水多年平均总补给量为11620 m3/d,其中降水和承压水越流分别约占13%和87%,降水补给量夏季高、冬季低,承压水越流补给量季节变化不明显;承压水越流补给量可能主要来源于沙漠周边山区降水,未发现明显的水量亏空需要断裂导水来弥补.研究结果为巴丹吉林沙漠地下水资源分析及合理利用提供科学依据.     

水质较好湖泊环境保护的理论基础及中国实践

目前,我国湖泊富营养化及蓝藻水华问题十分突出,国家高度重视湖泊的生态环境保护.自“九五”以来,国家就投入太湖、巢湖、滇池“老三湖”等重污染湖泊的治理,但成本巨大,且历经近30年才初见成效.按照湖泊污染程度,湖泊治理与保护可分为“污染治理型”“防治结合型”“生态保育型”3大类.“老三湖”的治理是典型的“先污染、后治理”的模式,水质较好湖泊主要属于生态保育型湖泊,因此,“老三湖”治理模式不适用于水质较好湖泊的保护.本文系统总结了我国水质较好湖泊优先保护理念的形成和水质较好湖泊专项实施的历程.根据水质较好湖泊的特点,及其生态系统退化与修复的一般过程,提出了水质较好湖泊保护的基本思路.从热力学角度,阐明了氮磷营养盐输入湖泊生态系统中是熵增过程,也是湖泊生态系统退化的根本原因,湖泊氮磷污染负荷源头控制是关键.湖泊流域生态安全格局是确保湖泊生态系统健康的基础,从景观生态学角度,阐明了优化湖泊流域水土资源利用、优化发展模式是减轻湖泊环境压力的重要途径.在浅水湖泊生态系统,以沉水植物占优势的“清水态”和以浮游植物占优势的“浊水态”转换过程不是沿着同一条途径,存在上临界阈值和下临界阈值,水生态修复过程表现出一种迟滞的现象.从湖泊水生态系统稳态转换理论角度,阐明了湖泊生态修复工程应在湖泊生态系统发生退化转变之前实施,才能获得较高的环境效益.通过国家财政专项对81个水质较好湖泊的支持,既能促进湖泊流域经济社会发展,又能确保湖泊水环境质量变好,湖泊水生态系统逐步改善.建议加强不同类型湖泊保护模式的总结,深入对水质较好湖泊生态系统演替理论和保护技术研究,支撑国家系统开展水质较好湖泊保护.     

Spatiotemporal variations of actual evapotranspiration over the Lake Selin Co and surrounding small lakes (Tibetan Plateau) during 2003–2012

Actual evapotranspiration(ET_a) over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is an important component of the water cycle,and greatly influences the water budgets of the TP lake basins.Quantitative estimation of ET_a within lake basins is fundamental to physically understanding ET_a changes,and thus will improve the understanding of the hydro logical processes and energy balance throughout the lake basins.In this study,the spatiotemporal dynamic changes of ET_α within the Lake Selin Co(the TP's largest lake) and its surrounding small lakes and land area during 2003-2012 are examined at the basin scale.This was carried out using the well-established Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model(WEB-DHM) for the land area,the Penman method for the water area when unfrozen,and a simple sublimation estimation approach for the water area when frozen.The relationships between ET_a changes and controlling factors are also discussed.Results indicate that the simulated land ET_a from the WEB-DHM reasonably agrees with the estimated ET_a values from the nonlinear complementary relationship model using appropriately calibrated parameter values at a point scale.Land ET_a displayed a non-significant increase of 7.03 mm year~(-1),and largely depends on precipitation.For the water area,the combined effects of reduced wind speed and net radiation offset the effect of rising temperature and vapor pressure deficit,and contributed to a non-significant decrease in evaporation of 4.17 mm year~(-1).Sensitivity analysis shows that vapor pressure deficit and wind speed are the most sensitive variables to the changes of evaporation from the water area.     

Background aspects of lake restoration: water balance,heavy metal content,phosphorus homeostasis

Perturbations of the lake water balance, inputs of heavy metals to lakes, and intensifying fertilization of lakes through input and accumulation of phosphorus—these three classes of phenomena are among the more important background processes in lake restoration. Lake restoration consists of a series of measures animed at producing a homeostatic response of a lake system to external perturbations. The success of its implementation is affected by the morphometric and edaphic parameters of different types of lakes. The relationship between the volume (V) and mean-depth of fresh-water lakes indicates a trend of . Glacial lakes occuring on or near crystalline shields have relatively shallow depths, whereas volcanic lakes, rift valley and deep valley lakes have relatively greater depths for the same volume. For saline lakes (21 lakes, V>1 km³) that undergo cycles of expansion and shrinkage, the V to relationship is closer to power 1. Water residence times (τ) of small and big fresh-water lakes show a trend of τ approximately linear in or τ∝V^0.3. Volcanic lakes and Maare have longer residence times in comparison to other lakes of similar volumes. For the major inorganic chemical species and heavy metals, the regulatory upper-limit concentrations in drinking water in the USA and EEC are from several times to more than 100 times higher than their concentrations in a global mean river water. Only three elements (Fe, P, and Al) occur in river water at concentrations approaching such upper-limit recommendations. Rates of accumulation of phosphorus in lake water and sediments, computed as the difference between input and ouflow removal rates for 23 fresh-water lakes, are generally lower for lakes of longer water residence time. The rate of accumulation is a measure of homeostatic response of the lake system to input load: it is equivalent to the rate of all the removal processes needed to maintain phosphorus concentration in lake water at a steady state.     

Models to predict Secchi depth in small glacial lakes

This study quantifies and ranks variables of significance to predict mean values of Secchi depth in small glacial lakes. The work is based on a new, extensive set of data from 88 Swedish lakes and their catchments. Several empirical models based on catchment and lake morphometric parameters are presented. These empirical models can only be used to predict Secchi depth for lakes of the same type, and the models based on geological map parameters can evidently not be used for time-dependent and site typical predictions of Secchi depth. However, many of the principles behind the results ought to be valid for lakes in general. Various hypotheses concerning the factors regulating the variability in mean Secchi depth among lakes are formulated and tested. The most important variables are: Lake colour (expressing allogenic input of different types of humic materials), total-P and lake temperature (measures of production of autogenic materials). The most important map parameters are: The mean depth (linked to resuspension and lake morphometry) and the ratio between the drainage area and lake area (expressing the linkage between catchment and lake). The predictability of some of the models cannot be markedly improved by accounting for the distribution of the characteristics in the drainage area (using the drainage area zonation technique). The variability in mean Secchi depth from other factors, such as precipitation and anthropogenic load, may then be quantitatively differentiated from the impact of these geological factors, which can statistically explain 68% of the variability in Secchi depth among these lakes. The model based on map parameters can also be used to estimate natural, preindustrial reference values of Secchi depth.     

一个三维斜压水动力模型的建立及其在日本琵琶湖中的应用

水温的空间分布对很多湖泊水文现象关系甚大,本文建立了日本琵琶湖的三维斜压水动力数值模式。模拟计算结果表明：１）在不同风速驱动下,湖的上、下两层可形成不同的环流型;２）除形成环流处外,其它部分流速、流向在上、下层表现出明显的垂直切变;３）闭合式温度场储存位能,即使在无风和初始静止流场情况下,也可驱动湖流并形成若干环流特征;４）风对水的驱动作用是形成北湖北部稳定环流的决定性因子,并且本身可构造出温度场     

Analysis of groundwater–lake interaction by distributed temperature sensing in Badain Jaran Desert,Northwest China

The Badain Jaran Desert is the second largest desert of China with a total area of 49 200 km². At least 72 perennial lakes are scattered throughout the desert, sustaining a unique desert–lake ecosystem. Groundwater of various origins was believed to play an essential role in maintaining those desert lakes, but hydrological measurements are lacking due to difficult field conditions. This study applied the distributed temperature sensing technique to continuously measure temperature variations in one of the desert lakes – the Badain Lake – to identify groundwater discharge to the lake based on the temperature differences between groundwater and lake water. Because temperature may be influenced by various unforeseen and temporary factors, it is critical to discern those factors that may affect the temperature such as solar radiation and vertical temperature stratification and to ensure that the temperature variations of the lake water as detected by the distributed temperature sensing are mainly caused by groundwater discharge. A time window was identified during which the groundwater discharge is the dominant factor that determines the temperature pattern of the lake water. The results show that the temperature near the eastern and southeastern lakeshore of the eastern Badain Lake is colder than the average, indicating that this area is the main groundwater discharge zone. Near the northwestern lakeshore adjacent to a sand dune, a weak cold abnormal area was identified, indicating that the sand dune is another recharge source to the lake through channelling the local precipitation toward the lake. The contribution from the sand dune, however, appeared to be less than that from the regional groundwater flow. This study provides the first identification of the temperature abnormal areas, which imply groundwater discharges into desert lakes and contributes to a better understanding of the unique desert–lake ecosystem. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.