Physiological response to high temperature in the Tropical Eastern Pacific coral Pocillopora verrucosa

The ecological and economic values of coral reef communities have encouraged efforts to implement periodic visual survey programs to secure their conservation. To date, visual monitoring‐based approaches have detected bleaching events weeks or months after the initial onset. An evaluation of the stress response of coral colonies, as well as their ability to resist and recover from the stress events, may increase our understanding of the physiological processes underling the stress and/or acclimation responses. Coral bleaching events, caused primarily by abnormally high temperatures, are continuously affecting coral communities worldwide. To evaluate the stress and recovery responses of the reef‐building coral Pocillopora verrucosa, a laboratory study was conducted herein. Coral nubbins were exposed to high temperatures to induce bleaching, and their ability to resist and recover from bleaching was subsequently monitored after returning the corals to ambient temperature. Lipid and chlorophyll concentrations, as well as Symbiodinium spp. density, decreased in samples exposed to nearly 31°C, slowly recovering to near‐control levels upon return to non‐stressful conditions. The present data set allows for an assessment of the vulnerability and ability of this common species to resist sub‐optimal environmental conditions, particularly the thermal stress events that will occur more commonly in their habitats as global seawater temperatures continue to rise.     

Southwest Pacific subtropical mode water: A climatology

The large-scale distribution and changes in Southwest Pacific subtropical mode water (STMW) are investigated and discussed. The paper presents for the first time geographic maps showing the spatial distribution of STMW thicknesses, with a vertical temperature gradient <2.0 °C/100 m occupying the 14–20 °C range below the mixed layer depth, across the entire Southwest Pacific region. STMW changes in areal thickness extent, vertical cross-sectional area along selected transects, and total volume, are examined on seasonal and interannual time scales between 1973 and 1988.We find that STMW extends across the entire width of the Tasman Sea in a very broad swath between the Tropical Convergence in the north (just to the south of New Caledonia), the southeast Australian coast in the west to as far south as 39°S (likely due to the southward extension of the EAC), and eastwards along the Southern STMW boundary in a meandering pathway that broadly follows the Tasman Front. The total STMW volume across the region (i.e., west of 180°) varies seasonally by a factor of more than three between the estimated maximum of 6.6 (±0.5) × 10¹⁴ m³ in October and minimum of 1.9 (±0.4) × 10¹⁴ m³ in May. Interannual variations O (±0.5 × 10¹⁴ m³) are also observed in the spatial extent of the thick mode water and its total volume. El Niño composite maps show an anomalous thickening of the STMW during the El Niño year with October positive thickness anomalies in excess of +20 m (total volume anomaly of +0.6 × 10¹⁴ m³) manifested throughout the subtropical gyre interior as far north as New Caledonia. Total volume anomalies tend to be positive from January of the El Niño year through to the July following (18 months). The maximum correlation coefficient r = −0.3 between 3-monthly STMW volume anomalies and the Southern Oscillation index is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. We conclude that during the anomalous cooling of the upper Southwest Pacific Ocean in the El Niño year, winter-time convection and STMW formation is enhanced across the region resulting in an El Niño – Southern Oscillation climate signal that is identifiable below the mixed layer by the increased STMW volume which persists through to the following winter. Finally, some evidence for the possible decadal modulation of the STMW variability is also discussed.     

The relationship of anchovy and sardine to water masses in the Peruvian Humboldt Current System from 1983 to 2005

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) is dominated by two pelagic species; Peruvian anchovy or anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax). Using data from 43 acoustic surveys conducted from 1983 through 2005 by the Peruvian Marine Institute (IMARPE), we examined the distribution of these two species relative to water masses. We tested the hypothesis that anchovy was found more frequently in upwelled cold coastal water (CCW) and mixed waters (MCW) than in other water types and that sardine was more associated with more offshore oceanic surface subtropical water (SSW). Surface temperature, salinity, latitude, season and distance to the coast data were used to define water masses. Results using generalized additive models (GAM), modelling sardine and anchovy presence–absence as a function of year, water body, bottom depth and latitude, showed that anchovy were primarily found in CCW and MCS, while sardine were more ubiquitous relative to water masses with some predilection for SSW. These results were supported by various indexes of anchovy and sardine distribution versus water mass as well as temporal and location variables.     

厄尔尼诺和台风共同影响下的7月份黄、东海海温变化

基于历史海温数据和台风路径数据,研究了厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜（El Niño/La Niña）背景下7月份中国近海海温变化特征。结果表明:7月黄、东海海温异常与El Niño/La Niña有显著相关关系,OISST和GODAS海温数据与Niño3指数同步相关系数分别为-0.32和-0.45。El Niño年7月,黄、东海海表温度异常低于-0.5℃的概率超过60%;La Niña年7月,黄海海温异常高于0.5℃的概率约有60%;正常年7月,海温异常的空间分布与El Niño年相反,但量值偏低。El Niño年7月,中国近海及邻近区域大气异常能够给局地带来更多降水;同时,受El Niño背景场的影响,入侵黄、东海的台风强度更强、影响时间更长。大尺度的降水和台风活动的影响是导致黄、东海海温异常降低的重要原因。因此,分析和预测7月份中国近海海温异常,在充分考虑El Niño/La Niña背景场的基础上,需要结合局地的大尺度降水和台风的影响同时分析,这为特定背景下结合不同时间尺度上的因素共同分析中国近海海温变化提供了一种思路。     

南海珊瑚礁区34年卫星遥感海表温度变化的时空特征分析

选取NOAA OISST数据集的1982-2015年南海月平均海洋表面温度（SST）,先对东沙、西沙和南沙礁区海域的多年SST进行时间尺度上的统计,然后对该数据集进行距平场的经验正交函数（EOF）分解,研究南海海表温度的时间和空间年际变化特征。研究显示:（1）不同的礁区海域SST升温趋势不同,东沙礁区海域SST升温趋势最明显（0.216℃/（10 a））,西沙和南沙礁区SST的升温趋势分别为0.180℃/（10 a）和0.096℃/（10 a）;（2）西沙和南沙礁区全年处于珊瑚生长的最适海温范围内,东沙一年中有4个月海温较低,SST最高的月份分别集中在7月（东沙礁区）、6月（西沙礁区）和5月（南沙礁区）;（3） EOF第一模态的空间分布显示南海SST变化是同相位的,由西北—东南振幅量值递减,在礁区振幅从大到小依次为东沙、西沙、南沙;（4） EOF第一模态时间系数显示南海SST变化与El Niño事件相关。南海海表温度异常场与Niño3.4指数的相关性分析显示两者关联度最高为0.723,平均关联度也高达0.655;南海SST的变化滞后Niño3.4区7~8个月。综上,在全球变暖背景下,南海SST的变化不仅受到El Niño事件的影响,其不断上升也在悄然威胁珊瑚的正常生长。     

A poleward jet and an equatorward undercurrent observed off Oregon and northern California, during the 1997–98 El Niño

The timing and intensity of the effects of the 1997–98 El Niño on sea-surface temperature (SST) and coastal sea level along the US west coast are examined using in situ time-series measurements, and the effects on upper ocean currents on the continental shelf and slope off Oregon and northern California are examined using repeated shipborne ADCP transects, a mid-shelf mooring off Newport Oregon and an HF surface current radar. An initial transient positive anomaly was observed in both adjusted sea level and SST during May–June 1997, followed by anomalously high coastal sea levels, generally strongest during September 1997 through February 1998 and abruptly returned to normal in late February 1998, and by positive temperatures anomalies over the mid-shelf that persisted longer, into April 1998. Low-frequency coastal sea-level anomalies propagated poleward at 2.1 m/s. Poleward flow over the shelf and slope was enhanced at most depths during the El Niño, compared with following years. Northward currents in the upper 12 m over the continental shelf off Newport, Oregon averaged 13.7 cm/s stronger during August 1997 through February 1998 than during the same period the following year. Enhanced poleward flow was present at all latitudes sampled during November 1997 and February 1998, particularly over the continental slope. These transects also provided clear views of a fall/winter equatorward undercurrent, which was both strongest and had the most alongshore similarity of form, during the ENSO. Finally, subsurface-intensified anticyclonic eddies originating in the poleward undercurrent appear to be a recurrent feature of the circulation off Newport late in the upwelling season.     

Hydrography, nutrients and chlorophyll during El Niño and La Niña 1997–99 winters in the Gulf of the Farallones, California

Nutrient and chlorophyll concentrations were measured in January 1997, 1998 and 1999 in the Gulf of the Farallones, CA at locations stretching north/south from Point Reyes to Half Moon Bay, and seaward from the Golden Gate to the Farallon Islands. The cruises were all carried out during periods of high river flow, but under different climatological conditions with 1997 conditions described as relatively typical or ‘neutral/normal’, compared to the El Niño warmer water temperatures in 1998, and the cooler La Niña conditions in 1999. Near-shore sea-surface temperatures ranged from cold (9.5–10.5°C) during La Niña 1999, to average (11–13°C) during 1997 to warm (13.5–15°C) during El Niño 1998. Nutrients are supplied to the Gulf of the Farallones both from San Francisco Bay (SFB) and from oceanic sources, e.g. coastal upwelling near Point Reyes. Nutrient supplies are strongly influenced by the seasonal cycle of fall calms, with storms (commencing in January), and the spring transition to high pressure and northerly upwelling favorable winds. The major effect of El Niño and La Niña climatic conditions was to modulate the relative contribution of SFB to nutrient concentrations in the coastal waters of the Gulf of the Farallones; this was intensified during the El Niño winter and reduced during La Niña. During January 1998 (El Niño) the oceanic water was warm and had low or undetectable nitrate, that did not reach the coast. Instead, SFB dominated the supply of nutrients to the coastal waters. Additionally, these data indicate that silicate may be a good tracker of SFB water. In January, delta outflow into SFB produces low salinity, high silicate, high nitrate water that exits the bay at the Golden Gate and is advected northward along the coast. This occurred in both 1997 and 1998. However during January 1999, a La Niña, this SFB feature was reduced and the near-shore water was more characteristic of high salinity oceanic water penetrated all the way to the coast and was cold (10°C) and nutrient rich (16 μM NO₃, 30 μM Si(OH)₄). January chlorophyll concentrations ranged from 1–1.5 μg l⁻¹ in all years with the highest values measured in 1999 (2.5–3 μg l⁻¹) as a result of elevated nutrients in the area. The impact of climatic conditions on chlorophyll concentrations was not as pronounced as might be expected from the high temperatures and low nutrient concentrations measured offshore during El Niño due to the sustained supply of nutrients from the Bay supporting continued primary production.     

Oceanographic influences on the distribution and relative abundance of market squid paralarvae (Doryteuthis opalescens) off the Southern and Central California coast

Market squid (Doryteuthis opalescens) are ecologically and economically important to the California Current Ecosystem, but populations undergo dramatic fluctuations that greatly affect food web dynamics and fishing communities. These population fluctuations are broadly attributed to 5–7‐years trends that can affect the oceanography across 1,000 km areas; however, monthly patterns over kilometer scales remain elusive. To investigate the population dynamics of market squid, we analysed the density and distribution of paralarvae in coastal waters from San Diego to Half Moon Bay, California, from 2011 to 2016. Warming local ocean conditions and a strong El Niño event drove a dramatic decline in relative paralarval abundance during the study period. Paralarval abundance was high during cool and productive La Niña conditions from 2011 to 2013, and extraordinarily low during warm and eutrophic El Niño conditions from 2015 to 2016 over the traditional spawning grounds in Southern and Central California. Market squid spawned earlier in the season and shifted northward during the transition from cool to warm ocean conditions. We used a general additive model to assess the variability in paralarval density and found that sea surface temperature (SST), zooplankton displacement volume, the log of surface chlorophyll‐a, and spatial and temporal predictor variables explained >40% of the deviance (adjusted r² of .29). Greatest paralarval densities were associated with cool SST, moderate zooplankton concentrations and low chlorophyll‐a concentrations. In this paper we explore yearly and monthly trends in nearshore spawning for an economically important squid species and identify the major environmental influences that control their population variability.     

The evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the northeast Pacific during the El Niño and La Niña events of 1995–2001

From late 1995 through early 2001, three major interannual climate events occurred in the tropical Pacific; the 1995–97 La Niña (LN), 1997–98 El Niño (EN), and 1998–2001 LN. We analyze atmospheric and upper oceanic anomalies in the northeast Pacific (NEP) during these events, and compare them to anomalies both elsewhere in the north and tropical Pacific, and to typical EN and LN anomaly patterns. The atmospheric and oceanic anomalies varied strongly on intraseasonal and interannual scales. During the 1995–97 LN and 1997–98 EN, the Northeast Pacific was dominated by negative SLP and cyclonic wind anomalies, and by upper ocean temperature and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies. The latter were positive along the North American west coast and in the NEP thermal anomaly pool (between Hawaii, Vancouver Island, and Baja California), and negative in the central north Pacific. This atmospheric/oceanic anomaly pattern is typical of EN. An eastward shift in the atmospheric teleconnection from east Asia created EN-like anomalies in the NEP during the 1995–97 LN, well before the 1997–98 EN had begun. The persistence of negative sea-level pressure (SLP) and cyclonic wind anomalies in the NEP during the 1997–98 EN intensified pre-existing upper oceanic anomalies. Atmospheric anomalies were shifted eastward during late 1996–early 1998, leading to a similar onshore shift of oceanic anomalies. This produced exceptionally strong positive upper ocean temperature and SSH anomalies along the west coast during the 1997–98 EN, and explains the unusual coastal occurrences of several species of large pelagic warm-water fishes. The growth and eastward shift of these pre-existing anomalies does not appear to have been linked to tropical Pacific EN anomalies until late 1997, when a clear atmospheric teleconnection between the two regions developed. Prior to this, remote atmospheric impacts on the NEP were primarily from east Asia. As the 1998–2001 LN developed, NEP anomalies began reversing toward the typical LN pattern. This led to predominantly negative SLP and cyclonic wind anomalies in the NEP, and upper ocean temperature and SSH anomalies that were mainly negative along the west coast and positive in the central north Pacific. The persistence of these anomalies into mid-2001, and a number of concurrent biological changes in the NEP, suggest that a decadal climate shift may have occurred in late 1998.During 1995–2001, NEP oceanic anomalies tracked the overlying atmospheric anomalies, as indicated by the maintenance of a characteristic spatial relationship between these anomalies. In particular, wind stress curl and SSH anomalies in the NEP maintained an inverse relationship that strengthened and shifted eastward toward the west coast during late 1996–early 1998. This consistent relationship indicates that anomalous Ekman transport driven by regional atmospheric forcing was an important contributor to temperature and SSH anomalies in the NEP and CCS during the 1997–98 EN. Other studies have shown that coastal propagations originating from the tropical Pacific also may have contributed to coastal NEP anomalies during this EN. Our results indicate that at least some of this coastal anomaly signal may have been generated by regional atmospheric forcing within the NEP.     

Understanding El Niño — The importance of Grey Literature in Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management

Access to information about past states of the environment and social systems is fundamental to understand, and cope with, the challenges of climate change and over-exploitation of natural resources at the onset of the 21st century. The loss of (old) data is a major threat to understanding better and mitigating long-term effects of human activities and anthropogenic changes to the environment. Although this is intuitively evident for old and local literature of any kind, even present-day international publishing of papers without the underlying raw data makes access to basic information a crucial issue. Here, we summarise experience resulting from a EU-funded International Science & Technology Cooperation (INCO) project (CENSOR) addressing Coastal Ecosystem Research and Management in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) context. We show that indeed “Grey Literature” is still one of the most important sources of knowledge about natural science research and management of natural resource systems in Latin American countries. We argue that public archiving of original data of present-day research and old (Grey) Literature and easy public access are important for appreciating today's global environmental challenges caused by human activities, both past and present.     

Spatial and temporal patterns in the distribution and abundance of macrozooplankton on the southern North West Shelf, Western Australia

We describe the spatial and temporal dynamics of macrozooplankton on the southern North West Shelf (NWS) of Australia over two consecutive summers (1997/1998 and 1998/1999). Sampling was conducted using submersible light traps, deployed at the surface and at depth, along one cross-shelf transect in 1997/1998, and along two cross-shelf transects and one long-shore transect in 1998/1999. Our results revealed large inter-annual changes in macrozooplankton assemblages during the two summers. An upwelling regime associated with El Niño conditions prevailed during the first summer, resulting in high chlorophyll concentrations and an abundance of both meso- and macrozooplankton. During this time, there were distinct inshore and offshore macrozooplankton assemblages that reflected an abrupt transition from upwelling-enriched shelf waters to oligotrophic oceanic waters. In contrast, the second summer was characterised by a downwelling regime associated with La Niña conditions that resulted in low chlorophyll concentrations and decreased abundances of meso- and macrozooplankton. The lack of upwelling activity weakened horizontal gradients in macrozooplankton assemblages so that differences between surface and deep assemblages were more pronounced. Catches in light traps were dominated by hyperiid amphipods during the first summer and by the neritic euphausiid Pseudeuphausia latifrons during the second. There was little within-season change in macrozooplankton assemblages during both summers, and only weak relationships were found between the environmental parameters and the distribution of individual macrozooplankton taxa.     

Changes in the Structure of a Coastal Fish Assemblage Exploited by a Small Scale Gillnet Fishery During an El Niño–La Niña Event

During 1998 an experimental gillnet fishing survey was carried out in a Mexican Central Pacific inshore zone. One-hundred and thirty fish species belonging to 51 families and 18 orders were identified. The most abundant species wereMicrolepidotus brevipinnis (29·0% of the total abundance) and Caranx caninus (19·2%), followed by C. caballus (6·3%), Kyphosus analogus (4·3%) and C. sexfasciatus (3·4%). Thermal SST anomalies showed the existence of two periods. The first, from January to April with positive anomalies, defines the end of an El Niño episode. The second period, from May to December, constitutes the beginning of the La Niña episode. The typical seasonality in a non-anomalous year continued for a large percentage of the inshore fish community, and the effects of the anomalous event consisted of changes in seasonality of occurrence in some individual species and the unusual abundance of some uncommon species. The species richness was higher during the El Niño–La Niña event than in a non-anomalous year, and therefore the event could be considered an interannual environmental mechanism that favours fish diversity in inshore waters.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part I: Comparing trophic linkages under La Niña and El Niño conditions

The El Niño of 1997–98 was one of the strongest warming events of the past century; among many other effects, it impacted phytoplankton along the Peruvian coast by changing species composition and reducing biomass. While responses of the main fish resources to this natural perturbation are relatively well known, understanding the ecosystem response as a whole requires an ecotrophic multispecies approach. In this work, we construct trophic models of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE) and compare the La Niña (LN) years in 1995–96 with the El Niño (EN) years in 1997–98. The model area extends from 4°S–16°S and to 60 nm from the coast. The model consists of 32 functional groups of organisms and differs from previous trophic models of the Peruvian system through: (i) division of plankton into size classes to account for EN-associated changes and feeding preferences of small pelagic fish, (ii) increased division of demersal groups and separation of life history stages of hake, (iii) inclusion of mesopelagic fish, and (iv) incorporation of the jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas), which became abundant following EN. Results show that EN reduced the size and organization of energy flows of the NHCE, but the overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators, detritus and export) of the ecosystem was maintained. The reduction of diatom biomass during EN forced omnivorous planktivorous fish to switch to a more zooplankton-dominated diet, raising their trophic level. Consequently, in the EN model the trophic level increased for several predatory groups (mackerel, other large pelagics, sea birds, pinnipeds) and for fishery catch. A high modeled biomass of macrozooplankton was needed to balance the consumption by planktivores, especially during EN condition when observed diatoms biomass diminished dramatically. Despite overall lower planktivorous fish catches, the higher primary production required-to-catch ratio implied a stronger ecological impact of the fishery and stresses the need for precautionary management of fisheries during and after EN. During EN energetic indicators such as the lower primary production/total biomass ratio suggest a more energetically efficient ecosystem, while reduced network indicators such as the cycling index and relative ascendency indicate of a less organized state of the ecosystem. Compared to previous trophic models of the NHCE we observed: (i) a shrinking of ecosystem size in term of energy flows, (ii) slight changes in overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators and detritus), and (iii) the use of alternate pathways leading to a higher ecological impact of the fishery for planktivorous fish.     

Oceanographic influences on seabirds and cetaceans of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific, the oceanic region centered on the eastern Pacific warm pool, but also including the equatorial cold tongue and equatorial current system, and summarizes what is known about oceanographic influences on seabirds and cetaceans there. The eastern tropical Pacific supports on the order of 50 species of seabirds and 30 species of cetaceans as regular residents; these include four endemic species, the world’s largest populations for several others, three endemic sub-species, and a multi-species community that is relatively unique to this ecosystem. Three of the meso-scale physical features of the region are particularly significant to seabirds and cetaceans: the Costa Rica Dome for blue whales and short-beaked common dolphins, the Equatorial Front for planktivorous seabirds, and the countercurrent thermocline ridge for flocking seabirds that associate with mixed-species schools of spotted and spinner dolphins and yellowfin tuna. A few qualitative studies of meso- to macro-scale distribution patterns have indicated that some seabirds and cetaceans have species-specific preferences for surface currents. More common are associations with distinct water masses; these relationships have been quantified for a number of species using several different analytical methods. The mechanisms underlying tropical species–habitat relationships are not well understood, in contrast to a number of higher-latitude systems. This may be due to the fact that physical variables have been used as proxies for prey abundance and distribution in species–habitat research in the eastern tropical Pacific.Though seasonal and interannual patterns tend to be complex, species–habitat relationships appear to remain relatively stable over time, and distribution patterns co-vary with patterns of preferred habitat for a number of species. The interactions between seasonal and interannual variation in oceanographic conditions with seasonal patterns in the biology of seabirds and cetaceans may account for some of the complexity in species–habitat relationship patterns.Little work has been done to investigate effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycles on cetaceans, and results of the few studies focusing on oceanic seabirds are complex and not easy to interpret. Although much has been made of the detrimental effects of El Niño events on apex predators, more research is needed to understand the magnitude, and even direction, of these effects on seabirds and cetaceans in space and time.     

中西太平洋金枪鱼围网渔场聚类及其原因分析

本文根据1995-2010年我国中西太平洋金枪鱼围网生产统计数据,按年和月不同时间空间分辨率对金枪鱼围网渔场进行聚类分析,划定不同渔场类型;同时结合海表温度（SST）及Niño3.4区指数,探讨其渔场类型形成的原因。研究表明,在月为时间尺度下气候异常事件（El Niño和La Niña事件）发生频次与渔场聚类结果类别相关联,在1-12月发生气候异常事件频数分布可划分为以下几个阶段:1-3月、4-6、7-9月、10-12月,与月时间尺度下金枪鱼围网中心渔场4种聚类结果的时间范围具有一致性。通过渔场重心聚类结果和El Niño和La Niña事件分类统计对比发现,在年时间尺度下,气候异常事件的类型与聚类结果相关联,聚类结果同一类别包含的年份发生的气候异常事件具有一致性,即在同一类别下1995年、1997年为强El Niño年;1998年、2007、年、2009年为正常年份;2010年为强La Niña年;1999年、2000年、2001年为La Niña年;1996年、2008年为La Niña年;2002年、2004年为El Niño年。研究认为,中心渔场的年际聚类变化与El Niño、La Niña事件的发生分布具有很强的相关性,因此可以利用El Niño、La Niña指标来预测渔场的年间和月份间的变化。     

Nonlinear aspects of sea surface temperature in Monterey Bay

Nonlinear aspects of sea surface temperature (SST) in Monterey Bay are examined, based on an 85-year record of daily observations from Pacific Grove, California. Oceanic processes that affect the waters of Monterey Bay are described, processes that could contribute to nonlinearity in the record. Exploratory data analysis reveals that the record at Pacific Grove is non-Gaussian and, most likely, nonstationary. A more recent test for stationarity based on a power law approximation to the slope of the power spectrum indicates that the record is stationary for frequencies up to ∼8 cycles per year (∼45 days), but nonstationary at higher frequencies. To examine the record at Pacific Grove for nonlinear behavior, third-order statistics, including the skewness, statistical measures of asymmetry, the bicorrelation, and the bispectrum, were employed. The bicorrelation revealed maxima located approximately 365 days apart, reflecting a nonlinear contribution to the annual cycle. Based on a 365-day moving window, the running skewness is positive almost 80% of the time, reflecting the overall impact of warming influences. The asymmetry is positive approximately 75% of the time, consistent with the asymmetric shape of the mean annual cycle. Based on the skewness and asymmetry, nonlinearities in the record, when they occur, appear to be event-driven with time scales possibly as short as several days, to several years. In many cases, these events are related to warm water intrusions into the bay, and El Niño warming episodes.The power spectrum indicates that the annual cycle is a dominant source of variability in the record and that there is a relatively strong semiannual component as well. To determine whether or not the annual and semiannual cycles are harmonically related, the bispectrum and bicoherence were calculated. The bispectrum is nonzero, providing a strong indication of nonlinearity in the record. The bicoherence indicates that the annual cycle is a major source of nonlinearity and further implies that the annual and semiannual cycles are harmonically related. Based on the wavelet power spectrum (WPS), the appearance of the semiannual cycle is transitory; however, pathways between the annual and semiannual cycles appear at certain times when nonlinear interaction between them could occur. Comparisons between the WPS and the running skewness suggest that there is a tendency for periods when pathways exist, to coincide with increased positive skewness, and, often, with El Niño warming episodes. The Hilbert-Huang transform, a relatively new tool for nonstationary and nonlinear spectral analysis, was used to further examine the origin of the semiannual cycle. The time-dependent Hilbert spectrum reveals large and erratic variations in frequency associated with semiannual cycle but far greater stability associated with the annual cycle. As a result, the time-integrated Hilbert spectrum does not indicate the presence of a semiannual cycle. The method of surrogates from the field of nonlinear dynamics was also employed to test the Hopkins record for nonlinearity. Differences between the data and the surrogates were found that were statistically significant, implying the existence of nonlinearity in the record. Using the method of surrogates together with a one-year moving window, El Niño warming episodes appear to be a likely source of nonlinearity, consistent with the other analyses that were performed. Finally, the influence of stochastic variability due to serial correlation in the data was examined by comparing standardized statistics for the observations and for simulations based on an autoregressive model whose properties were obtained from the observations. The magnitude of the variability for the simulations was found to be far less than that associated with the original data, and thus stochastic variability does not appear to be a factor that significantly affects the interpretation of our results.     

两类El Niño事件对中国近海及毗邻海域海表温度的影响

为研究东部型和中部型两类厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)事件与中国近海海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)变化间的联系,基于中国科学院大气物理研究所连续80年(1940—2019年)的SST再分析数据,采用EOF分解、合成分析等方法做了初步分析,发现中国近海及毗邻海域近80年SST变化与全球变暖密切相关。并且两类El Ni?o事件对中国近海SST变化的影响存在显著差异。东部型El Ni?o事件发展过程中,中国近海及毗邻海域SST在发展年主要为负异常,衰退期为正异常;中部型ElNi?o事件发展过程中, SST变化区域差异大,发展年日本附近海域为正异常, 28°N以南为弱的负异常。两类El Ni?o事件引发西太平洋风场反气旋涡的时间、位置与强度等的不同,是造成中国近海风场与海表温度异常(sea surface temperature anomaly, SSTA)差异的主要原因。     

Spatial and temporal structure of Tropical Pacific interannual variability in 20th century coupled simulations

Tropical Pacific interannual variability is examined in nine state-of-the-art coupled climate models, and compared with observations and ocean analyses data sets, the primary focus being on the spatial structure and spectral characteristics of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spatial patterns of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from the coupled models are characterized by maximum variations displaced from the coast of South America, and generally extending too far west with respect to observations. Thermocline variability is characterized by dominant modes that are qualitatively similar in all the models, and consistent with the “recharge oscillator” paradigm for ENSO. The meridional scale of the thermocline depth anomalies is generally narrower than observed, a result that can be related to the pattern of zonal wind stress perturbations in the central-western equatorial Pacific. The wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in the models is narrower and displaced further west than observed. The meridional scale of the wind stress can affect the amount of warm water involved in the recharge/discharge of the equatorial thermocline, while the longitudinal location of the wind stress anomalies can influence the advection of the mean zonal temperature gradient by the anomalous zonal currents, a process that may favor the growth and longer duration of ENSO events when the wind stress perturbations are displaced eastwards. Thus, both discrepancies of the wind stress anomaly patterns in the coupled models with respect to observations (narrow meridional extent, and westward displacement along the equator) may be responsible for the ENSO timescale being shorter in the models than in observations. The examination of the leading advective processes in the SST tendency equation indicates that vertical advection of temperature anomalies tends to favor ENSO growth in all the CGCMs, but at a smaller rate than in observations. In some models it can also promote a phase transition. Longer periods tend to be associated with thermocline and advective feedbacks that are in phase with the SST anomalies, while advective tendencies that lead the SST anomalies by a quarter cycle favor ENSO transitions, thus leading to a shorter period.