ENSO in a hybrid coupled model. Part II: prediction with piggyback data assimilation

A hybrid coupled model (HCM) for the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere system is employed for ENSO prediction. The HCM consists of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ocean general circulation model and an empirical atmospheric model. In hindcast experiments, a correlation skill competitive to other prediction models is obtained, so we use this system to examine the effects of several initialization schemes on ENSO prediction. Initialization with wind stress data and initialization with wind stress reconstructed from SST using the atmospheric model give comparable skill levels. In re-estimating the atmospheric model in order to prevent hindcast-period wind information from entering through empirical atmospheric model, we note some sensitivity to the estimation data set, but this is considered to have limited impact for ENSO prediction purposes. Examination of subsurface heat content anomalies in these cases and a case forced only by the difference between observed and reconstructed winds suggests that at the current level of prediction skill, the crucial wind components for initialization are those associated with the slow ENSO mode, rather than with atmospheric internal variability. A “piggyback” suboptimal data assimilation is tested in which the Climate Prediction Center data assimilation product from a related ocean model is used to correct the ocean initial thermal field. This yields improved skill, suggesting that not all ENSO prediction systems need to invest in costly data assimilation efforts, provided the prediction and assimilation models are sufficiently close. Received: 17 April 1998 / Accepted: 22 July 1999     

全球海洋模式对不同强迫场的响应

使用中国科学院大气物理研究所研制的全球海洋环流模式(LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model,LICOM),通过设计三个试验,即以德国马克斯—普朗克气象研究所整理的海洋模式比较计划(OMIP)资料和美国国家海洋资料中心(NODC)发布的《世界海洋图集2009》(WOA09)资料为强迫场的试验W,用美国环境预报中心(NCEP)和国家大气研究中心(NCAR)联合推出的NCEP/NCAR再分析资料(简称NCEP资料)中的风应力资料代替试验W中的风应力资料的试验M,以及用NCEP资料中的热力强迫代替试验M中的热力强迫资料的试验N,来研究不同的热力和动力强迫场对模式的影响。三个试验的模拟结果均模拟出了水团和流场的分布型和极值区。从三个试验的结果对比可以看出,NCEP资料较弱的风应力使得试验M环流场明显偏弱,减弱了大洋内部的温盐输送,加大了深海温盐模拟结果与观测资料的偏差,但对原模式过强的南极中层水的输送有所改善。NCEP的短波辐射通量和非短波热通量弱于OMIP,且在两极区域NCEP资料的海表温度比WOA09资料最多低 4℃以上。试验N的模拟结果改善了南大洋60°S以南海区试验W 模拟的海表温度偏高问题,减小了北冰洋部分海域以及副热带大洋东部海表温度的偏差。此外,试验N高纬度较低的海表温度增强了北大西洋深水以及南极底层水的输送,因而改善了深海的温盐模拟结果。三个试验在一些关键海区得到的经向热输送在观测估计及前人模拟结果的范围中,总体上试验M的输送最弱。综合三个试验的模拟结果,可以认为OMIP风应力资料和NCEP海表温度资料更适合作为LICOM模式的强迫场。     

The relative importance of tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways

To what extent is tropical variability forced from the North Pacific through ocean pathways relative to locally generated variability and variability forced through the atmosphere? To address this question, in this study we use an anomaly-coupled model, consisting of a global, atmospheric general circulation model and a 4½-layer, reduced-gravity, Pacific-Ocean model. Three solutions are obtained; with coupling over the entire basin (CNT), with coupling confined to the tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North and South Pacific specified by climatology (TP), and with coupling confined to the Tropics and wind stress and heat fluxes in the North Pacific specified by output from CNT (NPF). It is found that there are two distinct signals forced in the North Pacific that can impact the tropics through ocean pathways. These two signals are forced by wind stress and surface heat flux anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific. The first signal is relatively fast, impacts tropical variability less than a year after forcing, is triggered from November to March, and propagates as a first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave. The second signal is only triggered during springtime when buoyancy forcing can effectively generate higher-order baroclinic modes through subduction anomalies into the permanent thermocline, and it reaches the equator 4–5 years after forcing. The slow signal is found to initiate tropical variability more efficiently than the fast signal with one standard deviation in subtropical zonal wind stress forcing tropical SST anomalies centered on the equator at 135°W of approximately 0.5°C. Allowing extratropically forced tropical variability is found to shift primarily 2-year ENSO variability in a tropics-alone simulation to a more realistic range of 2–6 years.     

海洋模式对1995年5月南海AXBT海温资料的同化分析

利用美国普林斯顿大学海洋模式 (POM )对 1995年 5月南海AXBT海洋观测资料和MISST卫星观测的海面温度进行模式四维同化分析研究。POM模式同化处理使用最优插值分析与逼近方法 ,从模式积分到第 4年开始 ,使用COADS气候平均风应力场、净热通量场强迫海洋 ,从第 5年 5月开始加入 1995年 5月的MISST和AXBT资料同化积分 30d ,然后对同化结果进行分析。结果表明 ,资料同化可以改进模式对温度场的预报 ,也可改进模式对海流的模拟。分析结果还显示 ,1995年 5月南海浅层有暖涡和冷涡形成     

Uncertainty in the ocean–atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

The evolution of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean–atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15?years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean–atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the “coupled” reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere–ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones.     

Surface ocean response to synoptic-scale variability in wind stress and heat fluxes off south-central Chile

The effect of the high frequency (synoptic) variability of wind and heat fluxes upon the surface ocean off south-central Chile (west coast of South America) is investigated using a regional ocean model. We focus our analysis in austral summer, when the regional wind experiences significant day-to-day variability superimposed on a mean, upwelling favorable flow. To evaluate the nature and magnitude of these effects, we performed three identical simulations except for the surface forcing: the climatological run, with long-term monthly mean wind-stresses and heat fluxes; the wind-synoptic run, with daily wind stresses and climatological heat fluxes; and the full-synoptic run, with daily wind-stresses and daily fluxes. The mean currents and surface geostrophic EKE fields show no major differences between simulations, and agree well with those observed in this ocean area. Nevertheless, substantially more ageostrophic EKE is found in the simulations which include synoptic variability of wind-stresses, impacting the total surface EKE and diffusivities, particularly south of Punta Lavapie (37° S), where the lack of major currents implies low levels of geostrophic EKE. Summer mean SSTs are similar in all simulations and agree with observations, but SST variability along the coast is larger in the runs including wind-stress synoptic variability, suggesting a rather linear response of the ocean to cycles of southerly wind strengthening and relaxation. We found that coastal SST variability does not change significantly in the first tenths of kilometers from the shore when including daily heat fluxes, highlighting the prominent role of wind-driven upwelling cycles. In contrast, in the offshore region situated beyond the 50 km coastal strip, it is necessary to include synoptic variability in the heat fluxes to account for a realistic SST variability.     

Air–Sea Flux Estimates And The 1997–1998 Enso Event

Bulk formulae for wind stress, sensible and latent heat flux are presented that are suitable for strong mesoscale events such as westerly wind bursts that contribute to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Their exchange coefficients for heat and momentum have a simple polynomial dependence on wind speed and a linear dependence on air–sea temperature difference. The accuracy of these formulae are validated with respect to air–sea fluxes estimated using the standard algorithm adopted by the Tropical Ocean-Global AtmosphereCoupled-Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). The comparison ismade for observations from 96 Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array and National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) moorings in the equatorial and North Pacific Ocean spanning years 1990–1999. The bulk formulae are shown to have very small median root–mean-square differences with respect to the TOGA COARE estimates: 0.003 N m^-2, 1.0 W m^-2, and 10.0 W m^-2 for the wind stress, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux, respectively.The variability of air–sea fluxes during the 1997–1998 ENSO is also examined, along with a possible relationship between air–sea fluxes and surface ocean mixed layer depth (MLD). The wind stress and latent heat flux during the 1997 El Niño are found to be greater in the warm pool of the western Pacific than in the central Pacific where the ENSO is most clearly seen. These differences disappear upon the start of La Niña. The MLD in the equatorial Pacific is found to be moderately correlated to air–sea fluxes just before the start of the 1998 La Niña and poorly correlated otherwise.     

Ocean-atmosphere interactions and climate drift in a coupled general circulation model

 We have analysed numerical simulations performed with a global 3D coupled atmosphere-ocean model to focus on the role of atmospheric processes leading to sea surface temperature (SST) drift in the tropics. Negative SST errors occur coherently in space and time with large positive errors in latent heat and momentum fluxes at the tropical air-sea interface, as diagnosed from forced SST simulations. The warm pool in the western Pacific disappears after a few years of simulation. Strong SST gradients enforce regions of high precipitation that are thin and stationary north of the equator. We detail the implications for the ocean-atmosphere system of such upheaval in the deep convection location. A sensitivity experiment to empirically formulate air-sea drag coefficient shows that the rapid warm pool erosion is not sensitive to changes in the formulation of the surface drag coefficient over the oceans because the corresponding changes in turbulent heat fluxes and LW cooling approximately cancel one another. In the eastern Pacific, the improvement in SST is striking and caused by feedbacks between SST, surface turbulent fluxes and boundary layer cloud fraction, which decreases as SST warms. Received: 8 December 1998 / Accepted: 6 January 2000     

Assessment of Data Assimilation Approaches for the Simulation of a Monsoon Depression Over the Indian Monsoon Region

A low pressure system that formed on 21 September 2006 over eastern India/Bay of Bengal intensified into a monsoon depression resulting in copious rainfall over north-eastern and central parts of India. Four numerical experiments are performed to examine the performance of assimilation schemes in simulating this monsoon depression using the Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Forecasts from a base simulation (with no data assimilation), a four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) system, a simple surface data assimilation (SDA) system coupled with FDDA, and a flux-adjusting SDA system (FASDAS) coupled with FDDA are compared with each other and with observations. The model is initialized with Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast fields starting from 19 September 2006, with assimilation being done for the first 24 hours using conventional observations, sounding and surface data of temperature and moisture from Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder satellite and surface wind data over the ocean from QuikSCAT. Forecasts are then made from these assimilated states. In general, results indicate that the FASDAS forecast provides more realistic prognostic fields as compared to the other three forecasts. When compared with other forecasts, results indicate that the FASDAS forecast yielded lower root-mean-square (r.m.s.) errors for the pressure field and improved simulations of surface/near-surface temperature, moisture, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and potential vorticity. Heat and moisture budget analyses to assess the simulation of convection revealed that the two forecasts with the surface data assimilation (SDA and FASDAS) are superior to the base and FDDA forecasts. An important conclusion is that, even though monsoon depressions are large synoptic systems, mesoscale features including rainfall are affected by surface processes. Enhanced representation of land-surface processes provides a significant improvement in the model performance even under active monsoon conditions where the synoptic forcings are expected to be dominant.     

Isolating mesoscale coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Kuroshio Extension region

The Kuroshio Extension region is characterized by energetic oceanic mesoscale and frontal variability that alters the air–sea fluxes that can influence large-scale climate variability in the North Pacific. We investigate this mesoscale air-sea coupling using a regional eddy-resolving coupled ocean–atmosphere (OA) model that downscales the observed large-scale climate variability from 2001 to 2007. The model simulates many aspects of the observed seasonal cycle of OA coupling strength for both momentum and turbulent heat fluxes. We introduce a new modeling approach to study the scale-dependence of two well-known mechanisms for the surface wind response to mesoscale sea surface temperatures (SSTs), namely, the ‘vertical mixing mechanism’ (VMM) and the ‘pressure adjustment mechanism’ (PAM). We compare the fully coupled model to the same model with an online, 2-D spatial smoother applied to remove the mesoscale SST field felt by the atmosphere. Both VMM and PAM are found to be active during the strong wintertime peak seen in the coupling strength in both the model and observations. For VMM, large-scale SST gradients surprisingly generate coupling between downwind SST gradient and wind stress divergence that is often stronger than the coupling on the mesoscale, indicating their joint importance in OA interaction in this region. In contrast, VMM coupling between crosswind SST gradient and wind stress curl occurs only on the mesoscale, and not over large-scale SST gradients, indicating the essential role of the ocean mesocale. For PAM, the model results indicate that coupling between the Laplacian of sea level pressure and surface wind convergence occurs for both mesoscale and large-scale processes, but inclusion of the mesoscale roughly doubles the coupling strength. Coupling between latent heat flux and SST is found to be significant throughout the entire seasonal cycle in both fully coupled mode and large-scale coupled mode, with peak coupling during winter months. The atmospheric response to the oceanic mesoscale SST is also studied by comparing the fully coupled run to an uncoupled atmospheric model forced with smoothed SST prescribed from the coupled run. Precipitation anomalies are found to be forced by surface wind convergence patterns that are driven by mesoscale SST gradients, indicating the importance of the ocean forcing the atmosphere at this scale.     

Assessing 4D-VAR for dynamical mapping of coastal high-frequency radar in San Diego

The problem of dynamically mapping high-frequency (HF) radar radial velocity observations is investigated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the San Diego coastal region and an adjoint-based assimilation method. The HF radar provides near-real-time radial velocities from three sites covering the region offshore of San Diego Bay. The hydrodynamical model is the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) with 1 km horizontal resolution and 40 vertical layers. The domain is centered on Point Loma, extending 117 km offshore and 120 km alongshore. The reference run (before adjustment) is initialized from a single profile of T and S and is forced with wind data from a single shore station and with zero heat and fresh water fluxes. The adjoint of the model is used to adjust initial temperature, salinity, and velocity, hourly temperature, salinity and horizontal velocities at the open boundaries, and hourly surface fluxes of momentum, heat and freshwater so that the model reproduces hourly HF radar radial velocity observations. Results from a small number of experiments suggest that the adjoint method can be successfully used over 10-day windows at coastal model resolution. It produces a dynamically consistent model run that fits HF radar data with errors near the specified uncertainties. In a test of the forecasting capability of the San Diego model after adjustment, the forecast skill was shown to exceed persistence for up to 20 h.     

Influence of a Southern Shift of the ITCZ from Quick Scatterometer Data on the Pacific North Equatorial Countercurrent

By analyzing the climatologically averaged wind stress during 2000-2007,it is found that the easterly wind stress in the northern tropical Pacific Ocean from Quick Scatterometer(QSCAT) data was stronger than those from Tropical Atmosphere Ocean(TAO) data and from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis I.As a result,the Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) in the Pacific Ocean is more southward in the QSCAT data than in the NCEP/NCAR data.Relative to the NCEP wind,the southern shift of the ITCZ in the QSCAT data led to negative anomaly of wind stress curl north of a latitude of 6 N.The negative anomaly results in downward Ekman pumping in the central Pacific.The excessive local strong easterly wind also contributes to the downward Ekman pumping.This downward Ekman pumping suppresses the thermocline ridge,reduces the meridional thermocline slope and weakens the North Equatorial Countercurrent(NECC).These effects were confirmed by numerical experiments using two independent ocean general circulation models(OGCMs).Furthermore,the excessive equatorial easterly wind stress was also found to contribute to the weaker NECC in the OGCMs.A comparison between the simulations and observation data indicates that the stronger zonal wind stress and its southern shift of QSCAT data in the ITCZ region yield the maximum strength of the simulated NECC only 33% of the magnitude derived from observation data and even led to a "missing" NECC in the western Pacific.     

Uncertainties in Quantitatively Estimating the Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau

As a huge,intense,and elevated atmospheric heat source(AHS) approaching the mid-troposphere in spring and summer,the Tibetan Plateau(TP) thermal forcing is perceived as an important factor contributing to the formation and variation of the Asian summer monsoon.Despite numerous studies devoted to determine the strength and change of the thermal forcing of the TP on the basis of various data sources and methods,uncertainties remain in quantitative estimation of the AHS and will persist for the following reasons:(1) Routine meteorological stations cover only limited regions and show remarkable spatial inhomogeneity with most distributed in the central and eastern plateau.Moreover,all of these stations are situated at an altitude below 5000 m.Thus,the large area above that elevation is not included in the data.(2) Direct observations on heat fluxes do not exist at most stations,and the sensible heat flux(SHF) is calculated by the bulk formula,in which the drag coefficient for heat is often treated as an empirical constant without considering atmospheric stability and thermal roughness length.(3) Radiation flux derived by satellite remote sensing shows a large discrepancy in the algorithm in data inversion and complex terrain.(4) In reanalysis data,besides the rare observational records employed for data assimilation,model bias in physical processes induces visible errors in producing the diabatic heating fields.     

Assessing 4D-VAR for dynamical mapping of coastal high-frequency radar in San Diego

The problem of dynamically mapping high-frequency (HF) radar radial velocity observations is investigated using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the San Diego coastal region and an adjoint-based assimilation method. The HF radar provides near-real-time radial velocities from three sites covering the region offshore of San Diego Bay. The hydrodynamical model is the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) with 1 km horizontal resolution and 40 vertical layers. The domain is centered on Point Loma, extending 117 km offshore and 120 km alongshore. The reference run (before adjustment) is initialized from a single profile of T and S and is forced with wind data from a single shore station and with zero heat and fresh water fluxes. The adjoint of the model is used to adjust initial temperature, salinity, and velocity, hourly temperature, salinity and horizontal velocities at the open boundaries, and hourly surface fluxes of momentum, heat and freshwater so that the model reproduces hourly HF radar radial velocity observations. Results from a small number of experiments suggest that the adjoint method can be successfully used over 10-day windows at coastal model resolution. It produces a dynamically consistent model run that fits HF radar data with errors near the specified uncertainties. In a test of the forecasting capability of the San Diego model after adjustment, the forecast skill was shown to exceed persistence for up to 20 h.     

热带太平洋海表能量收支平衡特征及其与两类ENSO事件的联系

利用月平均的HadISST海表温度、NCEP再分析资料、OAFlux海表面热通量及相关物理量资料、NCAR/NOAA云量场资料,分析了热带太平洋海表热通量的年际特征,并且进一步分析了传统El Ni?o和El Ni?o Modoki事件中湍流热通量的异常演变特征以及影响因子。在热带太平洋上,净热通量的年际变化最大振幅出现在赤道太平洋上,且主要取决于潜热通量和短波辐射通量的变化。本文还利用两类ENSO事件旺盛期海温指数对不同时期海面热通量场的偏回归分析,考察了热带太平洋海表面热通量与两类ENSO事件中海温的联系。两类海温指数对各时期热带太平洋净热通量的回归均表现为赤道太平洋上存在显著的负异常,在Ni?o3指数偏回归下的负异常范围和强度都较El Ni?o Modoki指数回归的要大,且更偏于赤道东太平洋,而旺盛期海温对同期赤道东太平洋上湍流热通量的影响最大。     

4D-variational assimilation over the Bay of Bengal using the Adjoint of a Variable Resolution Global Ocean Model

Summary The adjoint technique has been widely used over the last two decades in applications involving the dynamics of the Atmosphere and Ocean. This present study applies this technique in the assimilation of oceanic parameters such as temperature and net-surface heat flux, in a variable resolution Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM). The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) 1999 July–August global data (sea-surface temperature and derived surface heat flux) and vertical temperature profiles collected from ORV Sagar Kanya and INS Sagardhwani during the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX 1999) are used for assimilation over the Bay of Bengal. The net-surface heat flux and temperature obtained after assimilation show good agreement with their respective seasonal patterns over the whole Indian Ocean, though there are some differences in the numerical values of heat fluxes. The vertical profiles of temperature after assimilation over the Bay of Bengal show strong resemblance with the corresponding ship observations, emphasizing the importance of the adjoint technique in ocean data assimilation.     

Decadal-scale climate variability in the tropical and North Pacific during the 1970s and 1980s: observations and model results

An abrupt change in the large-scale boreal winter circulation pattern over the North Pacific was observed during the mid-1970s. Most notably, this change was marked by a southward shift and intensification of the Aleutian Low and prevailing westerlies over the mid-latitude central and eastern Pacific. Associated changes in diverse North Pacific climatological, hydrological, and biological variables have been noted by numerous researchers. Intriguingly, the timing of these changes in the extra-tropical circulation was coincident with a shift in the background state of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system over the tropical Pacific. These changes include increases in SST over broad regions of the central and eastern tropical Pacific and an eastward displacement of the region of persistent convection in the western Pacific. This paper presents a variety of observed data and model results to describe the climate shift, and to understand some of the links within the coupled climate system that produced it. Five main findings are emphasized: (1) evidence of abrupt, simultaneous, and apparently related changes can be found in many fields and in many model results; the climate shift is not an artifact, (2) over the tropical Pacific the climate change represents a shift in the state of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, some aspects of which resemble features associated with El Niño episodes. However, the shift in state is not well characterized as due to a change in the frequency of intensity of El Ni~no episodes; it is better described as a change in background mean state, (3) when forced with observed SSTs, both a very simple atmospheric model and a full general circulation model (GCM) qualitatively simulate aspects of the decadal-scale shift over the tropical Pacific, (4) when forced with observed surface wind stress, two ocean models of the tropical Pacific, in which surface heat fluxes are parameterized as Newtonian damping, reproduce some aspects of the near-equatorial decadal SST signal. However, the models do not reproduce the large changes in SST observed at higher latitudes of the tropical Pacific, suggesting that altered surface heat fluxes dominated in producing these changes, and (5) an important new finding of this study is the success of a GCM in reproducing important aspects of the observed mid-1970s shift in winter northern hemisphere circulation. Comparative analyses of the observed and GCM simulated circulation suggest the altered patterns of tropical Pacific SST and convection were important in forcing the changes in the mid-latitude circulation, a finding corroborated by recent GCM experiments.     

Intercomparison of the performance of MM5/WRF with and without satellite data assimilation in short-range forecast applications over the Indian region

The present study is conducted to verify the short-range forecasts from mesoscale model version5 (MM5)/weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Indian region and to examine the impact of assimilation of quick scatterometer (QSCAT) near surface winds, spectral sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) wind speed and total precipitable water (TPW) on the forecasts by these models using their three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme for a 1-month period during July 2006. The control (without satellite data assimilation) as well as 3D-Var sensitivity experiments (with assimilating satellite data) using MM5/WRF were made for 48 h starting daily at 0000 UTC July 2006. The control run is analyzed for the intercomparison of MM5/WRF short-range forecasts and is also used as a baseline for assessing the MM5/WRF 3D-Var satellite data sensitivity experiments. As compared to the observation, the MM5 (WRF) control simulations strengthened (weakened) the cross equatorial flow over southern Arabian sea near peninsular India. The forecasts from MM5 and WRF showed a warm and moist bias at lower and upper levels with a cold bias at the middle level, which shows that the convective schemes of these models may be too active during the simulation. The forecast errors in predicted wind, temperature and humidity at different levels are lesser in WRF as compared to MM5, except the temperature prediction at lower level. The rainfall pattern and prediction skill from day 1 and day 2 forecasts by WRF is superior to MM5. The spatial distribution of forecast impact for wind, temperature, and humidity from 1-month assimilation experiments during July 2006 demonstrated that on average, for 24 and 48-h forecasts, the satellite data improved the MM5/WRF initial condition, so that model errors in predicted meteorological fields got reduced. Among the experiments, MM5/WRF wind speed prediction is most benefited from QSCAT surface wind and SSM/I TPW assimilation while temperature and humidity prediction is mostly improved due to latter. The largest improvement in MM5/WRF rainfall prediction is due to the assimilation of SSM/I TPW. The assimilation of SSM/I wind speed alone in MM5/WRF degraded the humidity and rainfall prediction. In summary the assimilation of satellite data showed similar impact on MM5/WRF prediction; largest improvement due to SSM/I TPW and degradation due to SSM/I wind speed.     

TEST OF A SENSIBLE HEAT FLUX – RADIOMETRIC SURFACE TEMPERATURE RELATIONSHIP FOR HAPEX-SAHEL

The estimation of the sensible heatflux from thermal infrared temperature requires anestimate of the excess resistance to be added to theaerodynamic resistance to the transfer of heat fromthe surface. This excess resistance can be expressedin terms of kB-1. An earlier studysuggested that the sensible heat flux over semi-aridregions could be derived from satellite thermalinfrared temperature using a value of kB-1= 7. Values of kB-1 were derived frommeasurements of sensible heat flux, radiometricsurface temperature, air temperature and wind speedtaken over millet, savannah and open forest sitesduring HAPEX-Sahel. These were comparable to valuesderived over similar sites during a previous study. Sensible and latent heat fluxes were estimated usingno excess resistance, kB-1 = 7 andkB-1 set to the values derived from theHAPEX-Sahel data set. There was an improvement on theestimated fluxes when an excess resistance wasincorporated. However, there was no apparentdifference between the errors in the estimated fluxeswith kB-1 set to either the derived orfixed values. This provides additional support forthe use of kB-1 = 7 in the derivation ofsurface fluxes from satellite data for sparsecanopies.     

Pacific interdecadal variability driven by tropical–extratropical interactions

Interactions between the tropical and subtropical northern Pacific at decadal time scales are examined using uncoupled oceanic and atmospheric simulations. An atmospheric model is forced with observed Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) decadal anomalies, computed as the difference between the 2000–2009 and the 1990–1999 period. The resulting pattern has negative SST anomalies at the equator, with a global pattern reminiscent of the Pacific decadal oscillation. The tropical SST anomalies are responsible for driving a weakening of the Hadley cell and atmospheric meridional heat transport. The atmosphere is then shown to produce a significant response in the subtropics, with wind-stress-curl anomalies having the opposite sign from the climatological mean, consistent with a weakening of the oceanic subtropical gyre (STG). A global ocean model is then forced with the decadal anomalies from the atmospheric model. In the North Pacific, the shallow subtropical cell (STC) spins down and the meridional heat transport is reduced, resulting in positive tropical SST anomalies. The final tropical response is reached after the first 10 years of the experiment, consistent with the Rossby-wave adjustment time for both the STG and the STC. The STC provides the connection between subtropical wind stress anomalies and tropical SSTs. In fact, targeted simulations show the importance of off-equatorial wind stress anomalies in driving the oceanic response, whereas anomalous tropical winds have no role in the SST signal reversal. We further explore the connection between STG, STC and tropical SST with the help of an idealized model. We argue that, in our models, tropical SST decadal variability stems from the forcing of the Pacific subtropical gyre through the atmospheric response to ENSO. The resulting Ekman pumping anomaly alters the STC and oceanic heat transport, providing a negative feedback on the SST. We thus suggest that extratropical atmospheric responses to tropical forcing have feedbacks onto the ocean dynamics that lead to a time-delayed response of the tropical oceans, giving rise to a possible mechanism for multidecadal ocean-atmosphere coupled variability.