Seismic Reflection Characteristics of Naturally-Induced Subsidence Affecting Transportation

High-resolution seismic reflections have been used effectively to investigate sinkholes formed from the dissolution of a bedded salt unit found throughout most of Central Kansas. Surface subsidence can have devastating effects on transportation structures. Roads, rails, bridges, and pipeliues can even be dramatically affected by minor ground instability. Areas susceptible to surface subsidence can put public safety at risk. Subsurface expressions significantly larger than surface depressions are consistently observed on seismic images recorded over sinkholes in Kansas. Until subsidence reaches the ground surface, failure appears to be controlled by compressional forces evidenced by faults with reverse orientation. Once a surface depression forms or dissolution of the salt slows or stops, subsidence structures are consistent with a tensional stress environment with prevalent normal faults. Detecting areas of rapid subsidence potential, prior to surface failure, is the ultimate goal of any geotechnical survey where the ground surface is susceptible to settling. Seismic reflection images have helped correlate active subsidence to dormant paleofeatures, project horizontal growth of active sinkholes based on subsurface structures, and appraise the risk of catastrophic failure.     

三峡库区奉节县三马山移民小区岩体的变形及其机制

三马山小区巴东组三段泥质灰岩由于岩溶溶蚀作用已全部发生了变形 ,根据变形程度的差别 ,可将变形区分为三个地带 ,即上部轻度溶蚀沉降地带 (Ⅰ ) ,中部溶蚀沉降地带 (Ⅱ )和下部沿江滑坡 (Ⅲ )。建筑设施主要分布在中部溶蚀沉降地带 ,应注意防水。下部沿江滑坡治理难度大 ,不适于移民迁建。     

Halite karst geohazards (natural and man-made) in the United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, Permian and Triassic halite (rock salt) deposits have been affected by natural and artificial dissolution producing karstic landforms and subsidence. Brine springs from the Triassic salt have been exploited since Roman times or possibly earlier, indicating prolonged natural dissolution. Medieval salt extraction in England is indicated by the names of places ending in "wich", indicating brine spring exploitation at Northwich, Middlewich, Nantwich and Droitwich. Later, Victorian brine extraction in these areas accentuated salt karst development, causing severe subsidence problems which remain a legacy. The salt was also mined, but the mines flooded and consequent brine extraction caused the workings to collapse, resulting in catastrophic surface subsidence. Legislation was enacted to pay for the damage and a levy is still charged for salt extraction. Some salt mines are still collapsing, and the re-establishment of the post-brine extraction hydrogeological regimes means that salt springs may again flow, causing further dissolution and potential collapse.     

Evaporites,brines and base metals: Low‐temperature ore emplacement controlled by evaporite diagenesis

Salt beds and salt allochthons are transient features in most sedimentary basins, which through their dissolution can carry, focus and fix base metals. The mineralisation can be subsalt, intrasalt or suprasalt, and the salt body or its breccia can be bedded or halokinetic. In all these evaporite‐associated low‐temperature diagenetic ore deposits there are four common factors that can be used to recognise suitably prepared ground for mineralisation: (i) a dissolving evaporite bed acts either as a supplier of chloride‐rich basinal brines capable of leaching metals, or as a supplier of sulfur and organics that can fix metals; (ii) where the dissolving bed is acting as a supplier of chloride‐rich brines, there is a suitable nearby source of metals that can be leached by these basinal brines (redbeds, thick shales, volcaniclastics, basalts); (iii) there is a stable redox interface where these metalliferous chloride‐rich waters mix with anoxic waters within a pore‐fluid environment that is rich in organics and sulfate/sulfide/H₂S; and (iv) there is a salt‐induced focusing mechanism that allows for a stable, long‐term maintenance of the redox front, e.g. the underbelly of the salt bed or allochthon (subsalt deposits), dissolution or halokinetically maintained fault activity in the overburden (suprasalt deposits), or a stratabound intrabed evaporite dissolution front (intrasalt deposits). The diagenetic evaporite ‐ base‐metal association includes world‐class Cu deposits, such as the Kupferschiefer‐style Lubin deposits of Poland and the large accumulations in the Dzhezkazgan region of Kazakhstan. The Lubin deposits are subsalt and occur where long‐term dissolution of salt, in conjunction with upwelling metalliferous basin brines, created a stable redox front, now indicated by the facies of the Rote Faule. The Dzhezkazgan deposits (as well as smaller scale Lisbon Valley style deposits) are suprasalt halokinetic features and formed where a dissolving halite‐dominated salt dome maintained a structural focus to a regional redox interface. Halokinesis and dissolution of the salt bed also drove the subsalt circulation system whereby metalliferous saline brines convectively leached underlying sediments. In both scenarios, the resulting redox‐precipitated sulfides are zoned and arranged in the order Cu, Pb, Zn as one moves away from the zone of salt‐solution supplied brines. This redox zonation can be used as a regional pointer to both mineralisation and, more academically, to the position of a former salt bed. In the fault‐fed suprasalt accumulations the feeder faults were typically created and maintained by the jiggling of brittle overburden blocks atop a moving and dissolving salt unit. A similar mechanism localises many of the caprock replacement haloes seen in the diapiric provinces of the Gulf of Mexico and Northern Africa. Evaporite‐associated Pb–Zn deposits, like Cu deposits, are focused by brine flows associated with both bedded and halokinetic salt units or their residues. Stratabound deposits, such as Gays River and Cadjebut, have formed immediately adjacent to or within the bedded salt body, with the bedded sulfate acting as a sulfur source. In allochthon/diapir deposits the Pb–Zn mineralisation can occur both within a caprock or adjacent to the salt structure as replacements of peridiapiric organic‐rich pyritic sediments. In the latter case the conditions of bottom anoxia that allowed the preservation of pyrite were created by the presence of brine springs and seeps fed from the dissolution of nearby salt sheets and diapirs. The deposits in the peridiapiric group tend to be widespread, but individual deposits tend to be relatively small and many are subeconomic. However, their occurrence indicates an active metal‐cycling mechanism in the basin. Given the right association of salt allochthon, tectonics, source substrate and brine ponding, the system can form much less common but world‐class deposits where base‐metal sulfides replaced pyritic laminites at burial depths ranging from centimetres to kilometres. This set of diagenetic brine‐focusing mechanisms are active today beneath the floor of the Atlantis II Deep and are thought to have their ancient counterparts in some Proterozoic sedex deposits. The position of the allochthon, its lateral continuity, and the type of sediment it overlies controls the size of the accumulation and whether it is Cu or Pb–Zn dominated.     

Geological and geophysical study of salt diapirs for hazardous waste disposal

Solving the problem of waste is one of the central tasks of environmental protection. It is becoming increasingly difficult to find suitable sites that are acceptable to the public. Salt and salt formations have relevant properties to be utilizing as a repository for each kind of waste. The favourable properties of salt make rock salt highly suitable as a host rock, in particular for non-radioactive and radioactive wastes. Tehran and suburb as an industrial state require a waste reservoir. The Great Kavir (the largest salt desert in Iran) with more than 50 diapirs has surrounded the eastern and southern part of Tehran Province. The Qom and Garmsar basins are the nearest salt diapirs to Tehran province, and there are suitable repository for waste disposal. Great Kavir diapirs have been investigated as a case study based on surface and subsurface studies for its suitability to host a repository for various types of waste. The procedure should be based on field work for surface investigation and also include geophysical studies for subsurface investigations. This research work is presented in regard to site selection in the Central Iran Salt Basins for deposition of only certain types of waste. Results of this study will indicate if the Central Iran Salt Basins are appropriate place to deposit industrial wastes in the deep bedded salt.     

Monitoring ground subsidence induced by salt mining in the city of Tuzla (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Salt mining induced ground subsidence is a major hazard in the city of Tuzla (Northeastern sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina) and its surroundings since 1950, when solution mining of salt deposits by boreholes began. An analysis of the large (and never before processed) amount of topographical data collected during two periods: from 1956 to the Balkan War, and from 1992 to 2003 has been made. The analysis reveals a cumulative subsidence as high as 12 m during the whole period, causing damage to buildings and infrastructures within an area that includes a large portion of the historical town. Human-induced subsidence, (with rates up to 40 cm/year in the most developed area), has been investigated to recognize the areas affected by the sinking phenomenon and to produce a subsidence hazard. The time series of topographical observations have been enlarged by conducting new surveys in the urban area by modern space-geodesy methodologies, such as static relative GPS (Global Positioning System) and high resolution satellite imageries. The GPS monitoring started in 2004 and detected a decrease in the subsidence rates to 20 cm/year related to the reduction of salt exploitation. There is close correlation between the average subsidence rate and the annual amount of salt extracted.     

Characterization of regional land subsidence in Yangtze Delta, China: the example of Su-Xi-Chang area and the city of Shanghai

Su-Xi-Chang area and the city of Shanghai, located in the south of Yangtze Delta, China, has subsided due to groundwater overpumping. Because of the regional scale of the groundwater exploitation, cone of depression and land subsidence at present, Su-Xi-Chang area and Shanghai are treated as a single area for a land subsidence study, which could more clearly elaborate the relationships between the deformation features of hydrostratigraphic units and the different sites of the cone of depression. All hydrostratigraphic units in the study area were discussed throughout. Based on the field data, including data on compression of individual strata from groups of extensometers and groundwater levels from observation wells, the relationship between the deformation and the groundwater level was analyzed. The results indicate that the deformation features of the hydrogeologic units are greatly related to hydrogeologic properties and groundwater-level variations. An identical hydrogeologic unit may exhibit different deformation features in different locations such as along the periphery and in the center of the cone of depression. In addition, in the same location, a hydrogeologic unit also exhibits different features in different periods because of different groundwater level variations. The delay phenomenon of the sandy aquifer is not specific but occurs widely.     

Principles of geomechanical safety assessment for radioactive waste disposal in salt structures

Today, a large amount of knowledge is available concerning various sites of potential high active waste (HAW) repositories in salt media. Domal Zechstein salt formations have been examined at several sites in Germany. Extensive R&D work was initiated in the former Asse Salt Mine in order to explore the suitability of salt for waste isolation by laboratory tests, theoretical studies and in-situ tests with test results forming a technological base for future repository development.

Resulting from the inhomogeneity of salt structures the demanded safety of a permanent repository for radioactive wastes can be demonstrated only by a specific site analysis in which the entire system, “the geological situation, the repository, and the form and amount of the wastes” and their interrelationships are taken into consideration.

The site analysis has three essential tasks: (1) Assessment of the thermomechanical load capacity of the host rock, so that deposition strategies can be determined for the site; (2) Determination of the safe dimensions of the mine (e.g. stability of the caverns and safety of the operations); and (3) Evaluation of the barriers and the long-term safety analysis for the authorization procedure.

The geotechnical stability analysis is a critical part of the safety assessment. Engineering–geological study of the site, laboratory and in situ-experiments, geomechanical modelling, and numerical static calculations comprise such an analysis.

Within a scenario analysis — according to the multi-barrier principle, the geological setting is checked to be able to contribute significantly to the waste isolation over long periods. The assessment of the integrity of the geological barrier can only be performed by making calculations with geomechanical and hydrogeological models. The proper idealization of the host rock in a computational model is the basis of a realistic calculation of stress distribution and excavation damage effects. The determination of water permeability along discontinuities is necessary in order to evaluate the barrier efficiency of each host rock.

In this paper some important processes for the performance assessment are described, namely creep and fracturing, permeability and infiltration, and halokinesis and subrosion.

For the future, the role and contributions of geoscientific and rock mechanics work within the safety assessment issues (e.g. geomechanical safety indicators) must be identified in greater detail, e.g. considerations of geomechanical natural analogy for calibration of constitutive laws.     

Geomechanical model for the post-Variscan evolution of the Permocarboniferous–Mesozoic basins in Northeast Germany

The Permocarboniferous basins in Northeast Germany formed on the heterogeneous and eroded parts of the Variscan orogene and its deformed northern foreland. Transtensional tectonic movements and thermal re-equilibration lead to medium-scale crustal fragmentation, fast subsidence rates and regional emplacement of large amounts of mostly acidic volcanics. The later basin formation and differentiation was triggered by reversals of the large-scale stress field and reactivation of prominent zones of weakness like the Elbe Fault System and the Rhenohercynian/Saxothuringian boundary that separate different Variscan basement domains in the area. The geomechanical behaviour of the latter plays an important role for the geodynamic evolution of the medium to large-scale structural units, which we can observe today in three dimensions on structural maps, geophysical recordings and digital models. This study concentrates on an area that comprises the southern Northeast German Basin, the Saale Basin, the Flechtingen High, the Harz Mountains High and the Subhercynian Basin. The presented data include re-evaluations of special geological and structural maps, the most recent interpretation of the DEKORP BASIN 9601 seismic profile and observations of exposed rock sections in Northeast Germany. On the basis of different structural inventories and different basement properties, we distinguish two structural units to the south and one structural unit to the north of the Elbe Fault System. For each unit, we propose a geomechanical model of basin formation and basin inversion, and show that the Rhenohercynian Fold and Thrust Belt domain is deformed in a thin-skinned manner, while the Mid-German Crystalline Rise Domain, which is the western part of the Saxothuringian Zone, rather shows a thick-skinned deformation pattern. The geomechanical model for the unit north to the Elbe Fault System takes account to the fact that the base of the Zechstein beneath the present Northeast German basin shows hardly any evidence for brittle deformation, which indicates a relative stable basement. Our geomechanical model suggests that the Permocarboniferous deposits may have contributed to the structural stiffness by covering small to medium scale structures of the upper parts of the brittle basement. It is further suggested that the pre-Zechstein successions underneath the present Northeast German basin were possibly strengthening during the Cretaceous basin inversion, which resulted in stress transfer to the long-lived master faults, as indicated for example by the shape of the salt domes in the vicinity of the latter faults. Contrary to this, post-Zechstein successions deformed in a different and rather complex way that was strongly biased by intensive salt tectonic movements.     

Subsidence hazards due to evaporite dissolution in the United States

Evaporites, including gypsum (or anhydrite) and salt, are the most soluble of common rocks; they are dissolved readily to form the same type of karst features that typically are found in limestones and dolomites, and their dissolution can locally result in major subsidence structures. The four basic requirements for evaporite dissolution to occur are: (1) a deposit of gypsum or salt; (2) water, unsaturated with CaSO₄ or NaCl; (3) an outlet for escape of dissolving water; and (4) energy to cause water to flow through the system. Evaporites are present in 32 of the 48 contiguous states of the United States, and they underlie about 35–40% of the land area. Karst is known at least locally (and sometimes quite extensively) in almost all areas underlain by evaporites, and some of these karst features involve significant subsidence. The most widespread and pronounced examples of both gypsum and salt karst and subsidence are in the Permian basin of the southwestern United States, but many other areas also are significant. Human activities have caused some evaporite–subsidence development, primarily in salt deposits. Boreholes may enable (either intentionally or inadvertently) unsaturated water to flow through or against salt deposits, thus allowing development of small to large dissolution cavities. If the dissolution cavity is large enough and shallow enough, successive roof failures above the cavity can cause land subsidence or catastrophic collapse.     

盐岩地下储备库引发地表沉陷事故的风险分析

在盐岩储备库的建设和运营过程中,由于腔体不断收缩而导致上覆岩层发生变形,从而引起储库上部地表发生碟状沉降变形,甚至造成地表塌陷事故是盐岩地下储备库的重要事故类型之一。针对盐岩地下储备库引发的地表沉陷事故进行分析,找出了该类事故的发生机制并建立相应的故障树模型,计算得到地表沉陷事故的14种发生模式和10个基本致因事件,并提出了相应的控制措施。并从风险分析的角度对盐岩储备库引发的地表沉降事故的后果严重性进行预测分析研究,并以湖北云应盐矿为例,假设该地区在储气库的建设或运营过程中发生地表沉降事故,采用模糊综合评价法对该类事故后果的严重性进行风险预测,得出后果为可忽略、需考虑、严重、非常严重、灾难性的概率分别为0.24、0.28、0.29、0.15、0.04。为有效预防盐岩储备库运营引发地表沉陷事故以及在事故发生前进行损失严重性预测提供了依据和方法     

Faults in crystalline rock and the estimation of their mechanical properties at the Olkiluoto site,western Finland

Brittle deformation zones at the Olkiluoto nuclear repository site in western Finland play critical roles in the strength and hydrology of the host rock mass. We present a procedure implemented there for incorporating information on deformation zones obtained through boreholes into quantitative engineering design. First, ductile and brittle deformation zones are classified based on their characteristics in drillhole cores as brittle joint clusters, brittle fault zones, or semi-brittle fault zones, with an awareness of the geologic processes that caused the zones to develop as they did. Next, it is shown that the mechanical properties of the brittle deformation zones can be calculated by one of several methods, each of which has advantages and disadvantages. The site geology must be kept in mind at all stages to arrive at meaningful estimates of the mechanical properties of the deformation zones.     

Simulation of groundwater flow and environmental effects resulting from pumping

In coastal lowland plains, increased water demand on a limited water resource has resulted in declining groundwater levels, land subsidence and saltwater encroachment. In southwestern Kyushu, Japan, a sinking of the land surface due to over pumping of groundwater has long been recognized as a problem in the Shiroishi lowland plain. In this paper, an integrated model was established for the Shiroishi site using the modular finite difference groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, by McDonald and Harbaugh (1988) and the modular three-dimensional finite difference groundwater solute transport model, MT3D, by Zheng (1990) to simulate groundwater flow hydraulics, land subsidence, and solute transport in the alluvial lowland plain. Firstly, problems associated with these groundwater resources were discussed and then the established model was applied. The simulated results show that subsidence rapidly occurs throughout the area with the central prone in the center part of the plain. Moreover, seawater intrusion would be expected along the coast if the current rates of groundwater exploitation continue. Sensitivity analysis indicates that certain hydrogeologic parameters such as an inelastic storage coefficient of soil layers significantly contribute effects to both the rate and magnitude of consolidation. Monitoring the present salinization process is useful in determining possible threats to fresh groundwater supplies in the near future. In addition, the integrated numerical model is capable of simulating the regional trend of potentiometric levels, land subsidence and salt concentration. The study also suggests that during years of reduced surface-water availability, reduction of demand, increase in irrigation efficiency and the utilization of water exported from nearby basins are thought to be necessary for future development of the region to alleviate the effects due to pumping.     

Effects of tectonic structures, salt solution mining, and density-driven groundwater hydraulics on evaporite dissolution (Switzerland)

Subsurface dissolution (subrosion) of evaporites such as halite and gypsum can lead to extensive land subsidence. Recent land subsidences have been surveyed at six separate locations in northwestern Switzerland. The diameters of the affected surface areas range from 100 to 1,500 m, and corresponding subsidence rates reached more than 100 mm/year. Based on a geometrical model, three sites could be outlined where land subsidence can likely be attributed to salt solution mining. The effects of increased hydrostatic gradient due to both groundwater withdrawal and fluid density contrasts were evaluated in more detail for the remaining sites with a series of 2D density-coupled solute-transport simulations along an approximately 1,000-m-long and 150-m-deep 2D cross section. Simulation results indicate that the upconing process of saline groundwater into the main aquifer occurs under different distributions of subsurface parameters and hydraulic boundary conditions. For the presented setup, the simulations also revealed that the most sensitive factor for the dissolution rate is the structure or dip of the halite formation, which leads to an increase of dissolution rate with increasing dip. Due to the increased density of the brine, an intrinsic flow dynamic develops which follows the direction of the dip.     

地下空间形态描述方法研究

地下工程施工、开发地下资源(包括开采地下水)都会引起地面发生沉降,导致位于地面的城市、交通线路及水体随之沉降。这种工程性沉降问题产生的根本原因在于地下出现了空间,而非层状(即不规则形状)空间环境是一种普遍存在的情况,与层状空间环境的地面沉降机理不同。当地下出现非层状空间环境时,目前还没有实用的地面沉降预测模型,否则,把非层状地下空间简化为层状情形进行处理。基于地下出现褶皱层状空间环境时的地面沉降规律,研究非层状地下空间形态的表述和处理方法。     

Aqueous geochemistry of radioactive waste disposal

Present plans for disposing of high-level radioactive waste include converting it to a stable solid form, enclosing it in metal canisters, placing the canisters in mined cavities several hundred meters below the surface, and filling and sealing all entries to the cavities. The chief hazard in such disposal is dissolution of radionuclides from the waste in the ground water that will eventually fill the cavity and may carry the dissolved material to surface environments. To prevent or delay release of radionuclides in this manner, the form of the waste must be made as insoluble as possible, the canister metal must be resistant to corrosion, both the cavity filling and surrounding rock must be impermeable and highly sorbent, and the repository must be located at a site where ground water is scanty and slow-moving and its path to the ground surface is long. The effectiveness of these barriers in isolating the waste can be predicted for long times in the future by models based on experimentally determined solubilities and sorption coefficients and on measured rates of ground-water movement. Much uncertainty is involved in such predictions, and additional research is needed to lower the uncertainty. But there seems little question that a well-located and well-engineered repository of this sort will provide adequate protection against harm from radioactive releases far into the future.     

北京市地面沉降区含水岩组及压缩层划分

文章通过北京地面沉降区综合基础地质及地面沉降专项调查，查明了沉降区水文地质、工程地质条件及地面沉降分布现状，并在典型地面沉降区开展了钻探和各种水文地质及土工试验工作。根捃上述成果资料，首次对北京市地面沉降区的含水岩组及压缩层组进行了划分。为首都地面沉降网站建设及地面沉降预警预报系统建立奠定了基础。     

盐穴储气库造腔工艺技术研究

盐穴储气库以其独特的优势在世界范围的石油工业领域中受到越来越多的重视。以一定的形状在盐层内建造一个地下储气溶腔,是一项复杂的系统工程。结合我国在盐层建设储气库的特点,围绕造腔设计的腔体目标和实施工艺,对盐穴储气库造腔工艺技术进行了全面的论述。通过对储气库腔体形成过程的分析,从造腔工艺、腔体控制与检测方法等方面,提出了造腔井型、水循环方式、溶腔步骤、两口距调节方式、形状控制方法、顶板保护工艺、密封检测、腔体稳定性等多项技术,同时推荐了造腔管柱组合方式、注水流量确定方法和保持腔体稳定的措施,对盐穴储气库造腔设计和施工有一定的指导意义。     

A New Elasto-Viscoplastic Damage Model Combined with the Generalized Hoek–Brown Failure Criterion for Bedded Rock Salt and its Application

According to the requirement of the West–East Gas Transmission Project in China, the solution-mined cavities located in the Jintan bedded salt formation of Jiangsu province will be utilized for natural gas storage. This task is more challenging than conventional salt dome cavern construction and operation due to the heterogeneous bedding layers of the bedded salt formation. A three-dimensional creep damage constitutive model combined with the generalized Hoek–Brown model is exclusively formulated and validated with a series of strength and creep tests for the bedded rock salt. The viscoplastic model, which takes the coupled creep damage and the failure behavior under various stress states into account, enables both the three creep phases and the deformation induced by vicious damage and plastic flow to be calculated. A further geomechanical analysis of the rapid gas withdrawal for the thin-bedded salt cavern was performed by implementing the proposed model in the finite difference software FLAC^3D. The volume convergence, the damage and failure propagation of the cavern, as well as the strain rate of the salt around the cavern, were evaluated and discussed in detail. Finally, based on the simulation study, a 7-MPa minimum internal pressure is suggested to ensure the structural stability of the Jintan bedded salt cavern. The results obtained from these investigations provide the necessary input for the design and construction of the cavern project.     

Mathematical modelling of groundwater flow at Sellafield, UK

Sellafield in West Cumbria was a potential site for the location of the UK's first underground repository for radioactive, intermediate level waste (ILW). The repository was to lie around 650 m beneath the ground surface within rocks of the Borrowdale volcanic group (BVG), a thick suite of SW dipping, fractured, folded and metamorphosed Ordovician meta-andesites and ignimbrites. These are overlain by an onlapping sequence of Carboniferous and Permo-Triassic sediments. In situ borehole measurements showed that upward trending fluid pressure gradients exist in the area of the potential repository site, and that there are three distinct fluid types in the subsurface; fresh, saline and brine (at depth, to the west of the site). Simulations of fluid flow in the Sellafield region were undertaken with a 2D, steady-state, coupled fluid and heat flow simulation code (OILGEN). In both simplified and geologically complex models, topographically driven flow dominated the regional hydrogeology. Fluids trended persistently upwards through the potential repository site. The dense brine to the west of the site promoted upward deflection of topographically driven groundwaters. The inclusion in hydrogeological models of faults and variably saline sub-surface fluids was essential to the accurate reproduction of regional hydraulic head variations. Sensitivity analyses of geological variables showed that the rate of groundwater flow through the potential repository site was dependent upon the hydraulic conductivity of the BVG, and was unaffected by the hydraulic conductivity of other hydrostratigraphic units. Calibration of the model was achieved by matching simulated subsurface pressures to those measured in situ. Simulations performed with BVG hydraulic conductivity 100 times the base case median value provided the “best-fit” comparison between the calculated equivalent freshwater head and that measured in situ, regardless of the hydraulic conductivity of other hydrostratigraphic units. Transient mass transport simulations utilising the hydraulic conductivities of this “best fit” simulation showed that fluids passing through the potential repository site could reach the surface in 15 000 years. Simple safety case implications drawn from the results of the study showed that the measured BVG hydraulic conductivity must be less than 0.03 m year⁻¹ to be simply declared safe. Recent BVG hydraulic conductivity measurements showed that the maximum BVG hydraulic conductivity is around 1000 times this safety limit.