Study of the Relationship between Recently Induced Earthquakes and Water Level at the Northwestern Side of Lake Nasser in Aswan Region,Egypt

Geotectonics - Lake Nasser is situated in an area with a very non-recurring earthquake, and revealed the history of Egypt registered 5000 years ago. After seventeen years of filling the Aswan High...     

Water resources and geomorphological characteristics of Tushka and west of Lake Nasser, Egypt

The water level fluctuations and geomorphology of Lake Nasser reservoir in Tushka area, Egypt, has its own bearing on the local hydrogeological regime. Comparison of the available data concerning the submerged bottom elevations of Lake Nasser with the static water levels of the groundwater wells reaching the deeper horizons of the Nubia Sandstone aquifer, suggests that Lake Nasser acts mostly as an influent stream. However, in some cases, when the static water levels of some deep water-bearing horizons reach levels above those at the bottom of the lake, water flows from the groundwater reservoirs towards the river which acts as an effluent stream. The constructed equipotentiometric map confirms this conclusion as it indicated that the maximum potentiometric level was attained to the northwestern part of Lake Nasser area, whereas the minimum potentiometric level was encountered to the southeast of this area. Hence, the groundwater flow is generally towards Lake Nasser. However, in some instances, it also flows in an adverse direction. The Piper trilinear diagram revealed the existence of four hydrochemical facies reflecting the quality of the fresh water of Lake Nasser, the slightly saline original water quality of the Nubia aquifer and the mixing facies with no dominant water types.

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Resumen Las fluctuaciones del nivel de agua y la geomorfología del reservorio del Lago Nasser en el área de Tushka, Egipto, tienen su propia influencia sobre el régimen hidrogeológico local. La comparación de los datos disponibles acerca de las elevaciones del fondo sumergido de Lago Nasser, con los niveles estáticos de los pozos de agua subterránea que alcanzan los horizontes más profundos del acuífero de la Arenisca de Nubia, sugieren que el Lago Nasser actúa principalmente como una corriente influente. Sin embargo, en algunos casos, cuando los niveles estáticos de agua de algunos horizontes acuíferos profundos, alcanzan niveles por encima de aquellos del fondo del lago, el agua fluye desde los depósitos de agua subterránea hacia el río, que actúa entonces como una corriente efluente. El mapa equipotenciométrico construido confirma esta conclusión, pues indica que el nivel potenciométrico máximo estaba localizado en la parte noroccidental del área del Lago Nasser, mientras que el nivel potenciométrico mínimo se encontró al sudeste de esta área. Por lo tanto, el flujo del agua subterránea generalmente va hacia el Lago Nasser. Sin embargo, en algunos casos, también fluye en una dirección contraria. El diagrama trilinear de Piper, reveló la existencia de cuatro facies hidroquímicas que reflejan la calidad de agua dulce del Lago Nasser, la calidad de agua ligeramente salina original del acuífero de Nubia y las facies mezcladas sin tipos de agua dominantes.

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Résumé Les fluctuations du niveau d'eau ainsi que la géomorphologie du réservoir du lac Nasser dans la région de Tushka, Egypte influencent le régime hydrogéologique local. La comparaison de l'altitude des fonds du lac Nasser avec les niveaux phréatiques des puits qui atteignent les niveaux inférieurs de l'aquifère des grès Nubiens suggère que le lac Nasser agisse le plus souvent comme un cours d'eau infiltrant. Il arrive aussi, lorsque le niveau hydrostatique d'horizons aquifères profonds dépasse ceux de la base du lac, que l'eau des aquifères soutienne les eaux de la rivière qui agit alors comme un émissaire. Les cartes hydro isostatiques confirment cette conclusion en indiquant que le niveau maximum est atteint au Nord-Ouest de la région du lac Nasser et que le niveau minimum se trouve au Sud-Est de cette zone. Ainsi, les eaux souterraines se dirigent généralement en direction du lac Nasser. Mais, elles se dirigent parfois en direction inverse. Le diagramme de Piper montre l'existence de quatre faciès hydro chimiques, qui correspondent à l'eau douce du lac Nasser, à l'eau légèrement salée de l'aquifère Nubien, et les eaux mélangées sans types d'eaux dominants.

     

Rate and budget of blown sand movement along the western bank of Lake Nasser,southern Egypt

Three sets of Landsat? satellite images for the years 1993, 1998, and 2003 show that the sand dunes at the southwestern Desert of Egypt are generally moving towards southeast direction with a mean annual creeping speed over ground attaining 15 m/year. The manual-stickled field measurements show that the net annual extension of the longitudinal dunes in the coastal area is between 4 and 5 m/year, while the inland longitudinal dunes showed a net movement ranging between 5 and 6 m/year. Seasonal variations of drift potential and sand movement refer to a strongly high energy wind desert environment in the spring season, high energy wind desert environment in the summer season, and relatively high to intermediate in the autumn and winter seasons, respectively. The total annual estimated volume of transported sand which falls down into Lake Nasser basin attains 16,225,808 m³ as calculated by Bagnold's equation and quantities of sand collected from the sand traps. Comparing this value with the total volume of Lake Nasser Basin, which attains 120?×?10⁹ m³, we can conclude that the sand sheets or sand accumulations may represent serious natural hazards to Lake Nasser in some locations. However, the sand drifting towards the lake may be obstructed by high contour topography hindrance, and the mean grain size of the sand sheets is bigger than 0.25 mm, which needs high wind velocity more than 4 m/s. In addition, the direction of the prevailing wind is N-NNW to S-SSE, and this direction sometimes is parallel to Lake Nasser in some places according to the meandering of the lake. The total lengths of hazardous areas along the western bank of Lake Nasser, which receive the most amounts of the drifted sands, attain 43.6 km only.     

Hydrogeological studies for the Nubia sandstone aquifers in Garf Hussein area,Western Desert,Egypt

The lithology of the studied aquifers has an important effect on their hydrogeologic setting. Moreover, the structural patterns have their imprint on the geologic setting and consequently the hydrogeologic conditions of the area. Lake Nasser recharges the groundwater in the study area by large amount of water increasing the groundwater level. A comparison of the depth to water in the same wells at two different periods (1998 and 2014 ) shows that the depth to water increases with average rise 11.1 m during 16 years. The constructed water table map shows that the groundwater flow is mainly towards the northwest direction reflecting recharge from Lake Nasser. The hydraulic parameters of the Abu Aggag and Sabaya sandstone aquifers are determined in the present work from pumping tests. The transmissivity of the studied aquifers reflects the moderate to high potentiality. The groundwater salinity of the studied aquifers is fresh water and varies from 353 to 983 ppm (part per million) and suitable for all purposes. It increases due to the west direction coinciding with groundwater flow direction. The main result of the present study shows that the seepage water from Lake Nasser attains 17 mcm/year.     

The present status of reservoir induced seismicity investigations with special emphasis on Koyna earthquakes

The status of Reservoir Induced Seismicity (RIS) has been reviewed periodically (Rothé, 1968, 1973; Gupta and Rastogi, 1976; Simpson, 1976; Packer et al., 1979). In the present paper, the significant work carried out during the last three years on RIS is reviewed.An earthquake of magnitude occurred on November 14, 1981 in the vicinity of Aswan Lake, Egypt, 17 years after the filling started in 1964. This event occurred 4 days after the seasonal maximum in the reservoir water level and was followed by a long sequence of aftershocks. Another event of magnitude occurred in the vicinity of Aswan Lake on August 20, 1982. Results of preliminary investigations indicate that this seismic activity is reservoir induced. Recent analyses of induced seismic events at Nurek Reservoir U.S.S.R., show that the second stage of filling during August to December 1976, increasing the maximum depth from 120 m to 200 m, was accompanied by an intense burst of shallow seismic activity. An outward migration from the centre of the reservoir, possibly associated with diffusion of pore pressure, is revealed by the temporal distribution of earthquake foci. A variety of investigations including the in situ measurement of tectonic stress, pore pressure, permeability, distribution of faults, etc., in addition to monitoring seismicity, have been undertaken in the vicinity of the Monticello Reservoir, South Carolina. The largest reservoir induced earthquake is predicted not to exceed magnitude 5.The Koyna Reservoir, India, continues to be the most outstanding example of RIS. Three earthquakes of magnitude 5 occurred in September 1980. Earthquakes of magnitude 4 occur frequently in the vicinity of Koyna, the latest being on February 5, 1983. Events that occurred during the period 1967–1973 have been relocated using better procedures and are found to be much shallower and the epicentres less diffused. Location of 12 earthquakes of M_s 4.0, their foreshocks and aftershocks, that occurred during 1973–1976, composite focal mechanism solutions and related studies are consistent with the delineation of a N-S trending fault through the reservoir area. In a couple of interesting studies it has been demonstrated that earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 in the Koyna region are usually preceded by several magnitude 4 earthquakes in the preceding fortnight. Also, a rate of loading of Koyna reservoir of at least 40 ft/week appears to be a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for the occurrence of magnitude 5 earthquakes. Smooth filling/emptying appears to be the key to reduce the hazard of RIS.A map and a table of the reported cases of reservoir induced changes in seismicity through 1982 have been compiled.     

长石粒内孔流体充注规律及分形特征:以鄂尔多斯盆地延长组致密砂岩储层为例

鄂尔多斯盆地延长组致密砂岩储层长石含量较高且脆性破裂发育广泛,目前对该类储层长石粒内孔流体充注规律及分形特征等了解仍然十分匮乏.综合铸体薄片、场发射扫描电镜、图像处理、分形维数计算等手段,提出"粒内充注"概念并对延长组储层长石粒内孔开展了微观充注过程定量模拟,指出长石粒内孔相对于粒间孔的特殊性.从时间上将粒内充注过程划分为前期非稳态充注和后期稳态充注两大阶段,转折点为充注关键时刻.依据充注速率值分布特点,将长石粒内孔某一时刻发生充注的所有空间位置划分为高速充注区、中速充注区、低速充注区三大充注区域,并建立了粒内充注波及系数幂函数变化曲线,厘清了流动轨迹分形维数的物理意义.研究成果可为鄂尔多斯盆地延长组储层油气成藏过程恢复提供较为重要的启示.      

Evaluation of the risk of induced seismicity at the itzantun hydroelectric site, Chiapas, Mexico

Consolidation theory and concepts of rock failure can be used to evaluate the probable risk of induced seismicity as a result of filling of reservoirs. This evaluation indicates the safest way to fill a reservoir, and depends only on the geometry of the load, the rate of filling and the geological structures in the area. The stability function is actually a measure of the risk of having failure, with time, for a particular loading history in respect to a plane of weakness.

The stability function is applied to the area of the Itzantun reservoir, which will be in southern Mexico. Drawdowns can increase the risk of triggering earthquakes in this area, which is prone to thrust faulting. It is possible to estimate the stresses after a period during which the water level is maintained and a decrease in stresses with the depth of the observation point.

The estimates of the probable induced seismicity are limited as the residual stress in the area prior to the impounding is unknown. With a measure of the residual tectonic stress it will be possible to determine an optimal filling rate to reduce the probability of induced seismicity.     

沉积盆地油气成藏期研究及成藏过程综合分析方法

从油气成藏研究的发展阶段入手讨论了油气成藏期研究方法的演变,早期主要从生、储、盖、运、聚、保各项参数的有效配置,根据构造演化史、圈闭形成史与烃源岩生排烃史来推断油成藏期次和过程;近年来随着科技的进步,油气成藏期的"正演"分析方法,如对构造演化史、圈闭发育史与烃源岩生排烃史的研究越来越深入、精细,相应地深化了油气成藏条件、期次和过程的认识;同时,依靠"成藏化石"记录方面的成藏期定量数据分析可以"示踪"油气成藏期次和过程,如具有封闭特征的记录了沉积盆地早期油气成藏条件和过程的流体包裹体研究,具有开放特征的反映油气充注、演化过程的油气分异特征、储层沥青分析及自生矿物年代学研究等。并以克拉 2气田成藏过程为例,提出了在油气分异特征、包裹体分析、储层沥青分析和成岩矿物年代学等研究的基础上,结合盆地构造演化史、沉积埋藏史、烃源岩热演化史以及各种成藏条件的有效匹配,综合分析油气成藏期次、过程的方法。     

First data on the radiocarbon age of the Atelian deposits in the North Caspian Region

This paper reports data on the Atelian horizon identified in the Caspian Sea bottom. Seismoacoustic profiling has made it possible to determine its area, position, and setting in the Upper Quaternary sequence and the relation to the host deposits. According to the drillhole core data, the Atelian horizon is composed of continental clay loam and sandy loam containing peatlike organic remains. They are depleted in biogenic residues containing rare freshwater mollusk species. The Atelian deposits were accumulated in lake reservoirs filling the depressions developed in the strata of the Upper Khazarian horizon. The radiocarbon age determined for the first time by humic acids has been used to estimate the Atelian deposition time in the range of 40 000–45 000 calibrated years BP.     

Spatial and temporal distribution of groundwater recharge in northern Nigeria

Moisture samples obtained from unsaturated-zone profiles in sands from northern Nigeria were used to obtain recharge estimates using the chloride (Cl) mass-balance method and to produce records of past recharge and climatic events. Recharge rates range from 14–49 mm/year, on the basis of unsaturated-zone Cl values and rainfall chemistry measured over eight years at three local stations. The unsaturated-zone results also provide a record of the changing recharge and climatic events of the past 80 years; this record compares quite well with modelling results using precipitation data from Maiduguri, especially for the late 20th-century period of drought. The best fit for the model is made, however, by using a lower mean rainfall Cl (0.65 mg/l) than that obtained from the mean of the field results (1.77 mg/l Cl). This result implies that the measured rainfall Cl probably overestimates the depositional flux of Cl, although the lower value is comparable to the minimum of the measured rainfall Cl values (0.6 mg/l Cl). Recharge estimates made using these lower Cl values range from 16–30 mm/year. The spatial variability was then determined using results from 360 regional shallow wells over 18,000 km². Using the revised rainfall estimate, the Cl balance indicates a value of 43 mm for the regional recharge, suggesting that either additional preferential flow is taking place over and above that from the vadose one, or that the regional recharge represents inputs from earlier wetter periods. These recharge estimates compare favourably with those from hydraulic modelling in the same area and suggest that the recharge rates are much higher than values previously published for this area. High nitrate (NO₃) concentrations (NO₃-N>Cl) preserved under aerobic conditions in the vadose zone reflect secondary enrichment from N-fixing vegetation, as occurs elsewhere in the Sahel. Electronic Publication     

Four loss estimates for the Gorkha M7.8 earthquake,April 25, 2015, before and after it occurred

The number of fatalities in the Gorkha M7.8 earthquake of April 25, 2015, has been estimated at four different times as follows. In March 2005, the fatality estimate in this journal was 21,000–42,000 with an assumed magnitude of 8.1 (Wyss in Nat Hazard 34:305–314, 2005). Within hours after this earthquake, the estimated number of fatalities by QLARM was 2000–10,000 using a point source model and M7.9. Four hours later, the estimate was 20,000–100,000, based on a first approximation line source model and assuming children were in school. Children out of school, as this was a weekend day, reduced the fatalities by approximately a factor of two, but was not taken into account for the calculation. The final line source estimates based on M7.8 and M7.9 calculates 800–9300 and 1100–11,200 fatalities, respectively. The official count is about 10,000 fatalities. These estimates were performed using QLARM, a computer tool and world data set on the distribution of people in settlements and containing a model of the buildings present. It is argued here that the loss estimate 10 years before the event being within a factor of 2.1 of the eventual loss count is useful for mitigation planning. With varying quality of information on the source and the attenuation, the estimates of fatalities shortly after the earthquake are accurate enough to be useful for first responders. With full knowledge of the rupture properties and the regional attenuation of seismic waves, the numbers of human losses are estimated correctly.

     

Comparison of recharge estimates at a small watershed in east-central Pennsylvania,USA

The common recommendation that recharge should be estimated from multiple methods is sound, but the inherent differences of the methods make it difficult to assess the accuracy of differing results. In this study, four methods for estimating groundwater recharge and two methods for estimating base flow (as a proxy for recharge) are compared at two hydrologic research sites in east-central Pennsylvania, USA. Results from the multiple methods all provided reasonable estimates of groundwater recharge that differed considerably. The estimates of mean annual recharge for the period 1994-2001 ranged from 22.9 to 35.7 cm—about 45% of the mean of all estimates. For individual years, recharge estimates from the multiple methods ranged from 30 to 42% of the mean value during the dry years and 64 to 76% of the mean value during wet years. Comparison of multiple methods was found to be useful for determining the range of plausible recharge rates and highlighting the uncertainty of the estimates.     

鄂尔多斯盆地奥陶系风化壳岩溶储层孔洞充填特征及机理

鄂尔多斯盆地奥陶系马家沟组风化壳岩溶储层是盆地重要的储集类型,但后期成岩及埋藏期对溶蚀孔洞的充填,造成不同地区有效储层发育具有很大差异。对显微薄片观察及地球化学测试等研究表明,充填物主要以白云石、方解石、石英、石膏、硅质等为主,并常以组合形式出现,其中以白云石为主的充填最有利于孔洞的保存。孔洞充填主要经历了早表生期(风化壳期),浅埋藏期和深埋藏期三个阶段。认为孔洞充填主要受控于后期构造格局的转变。     

Interpreting sustainable yield of an aquifer using a fuzzy framework

Reliable estimates for how much water can be safely withdrawn from aquifers without harming the environment is crucial for identifying new water supply sources and fostering sustainable growth. Methodologies to estimate groundwater availability that are rooted in science and yet accomplishable with minimal data are particularly useful for effectual aquifer management. Also, as groundwater management is increasingly becoming a participatory process, these methodologies must be transparent and easily understood by a wide range of audiences. In addition, proposed approaches must also reconcile imprecision and uncertainties arising from lack of data, differences in stakeholders’ perceptions and limitations associated with incomplete aquifer characterization. In this study, the fundamental concept of water balance is coupled with fuzzy regression to develop a scheme for assessing regional-scale groundwater availability. Using the mass-balance approach, anthropogenic water demands (municipal, industrial and agricultural) and ecological demands (baseflows to rivers) can be incorporated into the availability estimation process. The use of fuzzy regression enables the specification of decision makers’ preferences to the adopted procedure and renders the parameter estimation to be more robust in the presence of extreme values. The methodology is illustrated by using it to estimate groundwater availability in the Gulf coast aquifer, underlying Refugio County, TX, USA.     

高分辨率层序地层学在辽河油田大民屯凹陷油田精细开发中的应用

辽河油田大民屯凹陷沈84—安12块为一复杂断块油藏,目前已进入开发中后期的高含水阶段。根据区内钻井、测井资料,应用高分辨率层序地层学基本原理,对沈84—安12块Es33段地层进行了多级次基准面旋回的识别与对比,分析了基准面旋回对沉积特征、储层物性、剩余油分布的控制作用,明确了基准面旋回内不同部位剩余油的富集规律:(1)基准面下降晚期、上升早期,砂体面积广,厚度大,储层物性好,剩余储量易于动用且多连片分布;(2)基准面下降早期、上升晚期,砂体面积小,厚度薄,储层物性差,剩余储量不易动用且零星分布;(3)基准面下降中期、上升中期,剩余油储量中等。研究证实运用高分辨率层序地层学的研究手段在高含水期的剩余油挖潜中具有重要意义。     

Aptian综合年代地层事件:定量地层学的运用

以往发表的年代地层数据都是以Ma形式出现,以关键物种的首现面和末现面来界定的。一般而言,这些年龄是在用某种方法确定的某两个层的年龄基础上通过插值获得的,很大程度上仍然是估计值,而不是可以检验的科学结论。我们需要的是一个可以评价的、剖面重现的、标本重现的而且插值方法是经过严格检验的数据库。图形对比技术正是一个有用的方法,它可以综合众多剖面的分散分布的事件,并可以验证这些事件的顺序和年代。图形对比技术是一个定量的、非统计的方法,可以判别两个剖面之间存在的同时代关系。物种时限和非生物事件投点到X/Y图解上,时限可以通过对比线综合到单个的时间尺度上。其他剖面的数据通过重复以上过程把每个剖面的数据综合进来。获得的时限通过评价有这些物种出现的图形解而得到验证。Aptian阶(约124~112 Ma)时期环境发生巨大变化,用来确定Aptian阶的许多关键生物事件和年代地层事件并不都出现在同一个剖面。因此,这些事件的相对年龄始终是不确定的,也不是相关的。两个事件被提出来用于界定Aptian 阶的底界,包括菊石Deshayesites tuarkyricus 和磁极性带CM0。然而这两个事件标准地层剖面相隔600 km。图形对比显示这两次事件出现在7 万年间隔内。通过这一方法,来自23 条Barremian Aptian Albian     

基于声波测井的冻土区孔隙型水合物储层水合物饱和度估算方法

水合物饱和度参数的准确计算对于水合物资源量的评价至关重要。本文提出利用超声波测井资料与等效介质模型相结合的方法,可有效评价祁连山冻土区孔隙型水合物储层水合物饱和度变化特征,并在典型孔隙型水合物钻孔DKXX-13进行了应用。基于等效介质理论的弹性波速度模型正演模拟的纵波速度相比基于双相介质理论的弹性波速度模型更加吻合实际测井纵波速度,可用于分析孔隙型水合物储层的纵波速度特征;通过正演模拟的纵波速度与实际测井纵波速度的对比,识别出X30.0～X30.2m、X30.3～X30.4m、X31.1～X31.6m、X31.7～X31.9m、X32.0～X32.2m井段存在水合物,水合物赋存井段地层的水合物饱和度变化范围为13.0%～85.0%,平均值为61.9%,与标准阿尔奇公式估算结果和现场岩芯测试结果基本一致。研究结果可为祁连山冻土区水合物地层测井评价与地震勘探提供理论依据和技术支撑。     

Earthquake hazard in Jordan

An estimate of the maximum macroseismic intensities and ground accelerations which might be expected for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is made. The inferred maximum magnitudes lie in the range of 6.1 to 7.3 although the possibility that larger earthquakes can occur with long recurrence times cannot be precluded. Peak horizontal accelerations in the range of 0.4 to 0.5 g can be expected in Jordan. Probabilistic estimates indicate that the odds are about even (50-50) that an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 6 will occur within 80 years.     

Time-dependent Inversion of Surface Subsidence due to Dynamic Reservoir Compaction

We introduce a novel, time-dependent inversion scheme for resolving temporal reservoir pressure drop from surface subsidence observations (from leveling or GPS data, InSAR, tiltmeter monitoring) in a single procedure. The theory is able to accommodate both the absence of surface subsidence estimates at sites at one or more epochs as well as the introduction of new sites at any arbitrary epoch. Thus, all observation sites with measurements from at least two epochs are utilized. The method uses both the prior model covariance matrix and the data covariance matrix, which incorporates the spatial and temporal correlations between model parameters and data, respectively. The incorporation of the model covariance implicitly guarantees smoothness of the model estimate, while maintaining specific geological features like sharp boundaries. Taking these relations into account through the model covariance matrix enhances the influence of the data on the inverted model estimate. This leads to a better defined and interpretable model estimate. The time-dependent aspect of the method yields a better constrained model estimate and makes it possible to identify non-linear acceleration or delay in reservoir compaction. The method is validated by a synthetic case study based on an existing gas reservoir with a highly variable transmissibility at the free water level. The prior model covariance matrix is based on a Monte Carlo simulation of the geological uncertainty in the transmissibility.