A probabilistic model for rainfall—induced shallow landslide prediction at the regional scale

This paper presents a new probabilistic physically-based computational model (called PG_TRIGRS) for the probabilistic analysis of rainfall-induced landslide hazard at a regional scale. The model is based on the deterministic approach implemented in the original TRIGRS code, developed by Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 02–424, 2002) and Baum et al. (USGS Open File Report 08–1159, 2008). Its key innovative features are: (a) the application of Ordinary Kriging for the estimation of the spatial distributions of the first two statistical moments of the probability density functions of the relevant soil properties over the entire area, based on limited available information gathered from available information from limited site investigation campaigns, and (b) the use of Rosenblueth’s Point Estimate method as a more efficient alternative to the classical Monte Carlo method for the reliability analysis performed at the single-cell level to obtain the probability of failure associated to a given rainfall event. The application of the PG_TRIGRS code to a selected study area located in the Umbria Region for different idealized but realistic rainfall scenarios has demonstrated the computational efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed methodology, assessed by comparing predicted landslide densities with available field observations reported by the IFFI project. In particular, while the model might fail to identify all individual landslide events, its predictions are remarkably good in identifying the areas of higher landslide density.     

Analysis of rainfall-induced infinite slope failure during typhoon using a hydrological–geotechnical model

Rainwater infiltration during typhoons tends to trigger slope instability. This paper presents the results of a study on slope response to rainwater infiltration during heavy rainfall in a mountain area of Taiwan. The Green-Ampt infiltration model is adopted here to study the behavior of rainwater infiltration on slopes. The failure mechanism of infinite slope is chosen to represent the rainfall-induced shallow slope failure. By combining rain infiltration model and infinite slope analysis, the proposed model can estimate the occurrence time of a slope failure. In general, if a slope failure is to happen on a slope covered with low permeability soil, failure tends to happen after the occurrence of the maximum rainfall intensity. In contrast, slope failure tends to occur prior to the occurrence of maximum rainfall intensity if a slope is covered with high-permeability soil. To predict the potential and timing of a landslide, a method is proposed here based on the normalized rainfall intensity (NRI) and normalized accumulated rainfall (NAR). If the actual NAR is higher than the NAR calculated by the proposed method, slope failure is very likely to happen. Otherwise, the slope is unlikely to fail. The applicability of the proposed model to occurrence time and the NAR–NRI relationship is evaluated using landslide cases obtained from the literature. The results of the proposed method are close to that of the selected cases. It verifies the applicability of the proposed method to slopes in different areas of the world. An erratum to this article can be found at     

A distributed water–heat coupled model for mountainous watershed of an inland river basin in Northwest China (II) using meteorological and hydrological data

A distributed water–heat coupled model (DWHC) is calibrated by using daily precipitation data from 26 hydrological and meteorological stations: daily averaged air temperature data from the 11 stations and daily pan evaporation data (E601) from the 15 stations in 2000. Six tests by using different spatial interpolation methods to calculate the above daily meteorological data in each 1 km × 1 km grid, are designed to simulate the mean daily runoff generated from the research Heihe mountainous watershed in 2000. Due to spatial sparseness and asymmetry of the hydrological and meteorological stations, the results of the six tests have little differences. The interpolation method in 3-D mode considering altitude is not better than those taking no account of altitude, nor are the model results when the daily meteorological data at the two stations far from the research watershed are complemented. At last, a nearest neighbor interpolation method in 2-D mode is used to calibrate the DWHC model, in which the revised Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE, balance error B, determinate coefficient R ², root mean square error RMSE and average absolute error MAE is about 0.61, 0.08%, 0.73, 25.0 and 15.8 m³s⁻¹, respectively. However, by using the daily data in 1999 to validate the model, the NSE, B, R ², RMSE and MAE are, respectively, 0.63, −2.98%, 0.77, 34.9 and 20.3 m³s⁻¹. The reason that the model result is not favorable is mainly because of the lack of detailed soil information, meteorological data and vegetation data; even worse, the basic equations for runoff generation processes are mainly derived from the research results in other regions and meanwhile, its flow concentration method should be improved too. The water balance of the research watershed in 2000 is also discussed in this paper. Though the runoff simulation results are not favorable, the estimated evapotranspiration and runoff components are in accordance with the usual knowledge qualitatively, parts of which meet with the field measurements. According to the model results, the runoff is mainly generated from the land surfaces and shallow soil layers in this cold mountainous watershed. The alpine meadow has evident water conservation function based on the model results, field investigation and field observation results. The DWHC model also reproduces the formation processes of the thick-layered ground ice to some extent, though it is suppositional due to lack of detailed soil, vegetation and meteorological information.     

A prototype system for space–time assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Italy

In the last decades, physically based distributed models turned out rather promising to achieve the space–time assessment of shallow landslides at large spatial scale. This technical note deals with the application of a physically based stability model named Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP), which has been adopted by the Department of National Civil Protection of Italy as a prototype early warning system for rainfall-induced shallow landslides on national scale. The model is used as a main methodology to create space–time shallow landslide susceptibility maps based on a simple deterministic slope-stability approach, combined with high-resolution rainfall information and geographic information system-based geospatial datasets. The safety factor as an index to measure slope instability is modeled as function of topographic, geologic, geotechnical and hydrologic variables. Although the main aim of this work was to prove the operational viability of such model on a nationwide domain and some simplification are adopted at this stage, hind cast tests on some relevant case histories of shallow landslides occurred between October 2009 and October 2011 showed that the model has skill in representing both timing and location of those shallow landslides.     

A 2D integrated FEM model for surface water–groundwater flow of slopes under rainfall condition

Numerical modeling of water infiltration in slopes under rainfall conditions, especially under rainstorm conditions, is a fundamental problem for slope stability assessment. To obtain representative results, surface water–groundwater flow models are incorporated in the simulation. Based on finite element representation of Richards’ equation and of kinematic wave equations, an integrated 2D numerical model (IMCR2D) of the surface water–groundwater system was established. The model has a symmetrical matrix that modifies the flux boundary according to the runoff solution on the slope. IMCR2D was verified using two laboratory experiments, and it showed good agreement with numerical and experimental results. Additional numerical examples were used to study the effect of flux supply from runoff on infiltration. In comparison with SimMd (an existing method), IMCR2D displayed advantages in cases where surface runoff develops in an upper low-permeability section of the slope and flows down into a high-permeability section of the slope. To illustrate the advantages of the new method, the seepage field and stability condition of a case study in the Three Gorges Hydroelectric Reservoir were analyzed using IMCR2D and SimMd. The deformation of a landslide in part reflects its stability, and therefore, we also used displacement monitoring data to estimate the variation of stability conditions from that aspect. Comparison of the two numerical models indicated that flux supply greatly affects the seepage field, and that rainfall plays an important role in landslide stability evaluation, but only when considering flux supply from upper slope surface runoff.     

Calibration of the parameters for a hardening–softening constitutive model using genetic algorithms

The present paper introduces a genetic algorithm-based optimization technique to calibrate a nonlinear strain hardening–softening constitutive model for soils using five material parameters. The efficiency of the proposed technique is analyzed through the use of different GA techniques. The effects of elitism, crossover, and mutation, as well as population size, on the performance of the conventional GAs for this problem are investigated. Micro-genetic algorithms (mGAs) are chosen and tested for different population sizes. The mGAs with a population size of five yields the optimal parameter values after fewer function evaluations and capture the overall simulated or experimental behavior at every point in stress–strain and strain paths in triaxial compression. The proposed calibration technique is validated through comparison with the traditional calibration technique.     

Consistent modeling of a catastrophic flowslide at the Shenzhen landfill using a hydro-elasto-plastic model with solid–fluid transition

Flow-type landslides are an important hazard that can cause great destruction due to the rapid flow velocity and large disaster area. This paper presents a catastrophic flowslide that recently occurred at a landfill in Shenzhen, China. This disaster involved an area about 1100 m in length and 630 m in maximum width, and caused the death of 77 people and the destruction of 33 buildings. The precise reason for the landfill’s failure is still unknown, and therefore we try to contribute an increased understanding of the event for future prevention. In this study, the failure mechanism of the studied slope was analyzed and described under partially saturated condition. The solid–fluid transition during the flowslide occurrence was described using a unified constitutive model. The model was used to perform the hydro-elasto-plastic modeling in the pre-failure stage, the viscous modeling in the post-failure stage, and the second-order work criterion was introduced in between to model the solid–fluid transition. The consistent evolution of the flowslide, including initiation, propagation, and deposit stages, was simulated and analyzed using the finite element method with Lagrangian integration points after careful calibration of the viscous parameters. The numerical results were compared with the real case and used to explain the failure mechanism.     

Decision support for infrastructure planning: a comprehensive location–allocation model for fire station in complex urban system

Natural Hazards - Infrastructures are the most important aspect of any urban system. Properly planned infrastructures are critical for ensuring services and protecting an urban system from...     

Numerical analysis on seepage failures of dike due to water level-up and rainfall using a water–soil-coupled smoothed particle hydrodynamics model

For seepage failures of dike due to water level-up and rainfall, surface infiltration and strength change induced by suction reduction are important factors; thus, numerical analysis should consider the coupling of water and soil, as well as the effect of saturation to obtain more precise failure mechanism. Based on the advanced smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) method, this work proposed a two-phase-coupled SPH model in coordination with a novel constitutive model for unsaturated soils. Then, a triaxial compression test is simulated to check the applicability of the SPH method on the soil phase. After that, the failure test of a dike due to water level-up is discretized and simulated, from which the seepage process, the distribution of maximum shear strain, the slip surface, and pore water pressure are obtained. The two-phase-coupled SPH model is also applied to a slope failure test of heavy rainfall, and the results are compared to the model test. Finally, a dike failure test due to rainfall is analyzed using the proposed SPH model to reproduce the surface infiltration and suction reduction. The proposed SPH model provides several insights of seepage failures and can be a helpful tool for the analysis of dike failures induced by water level-up and rainfall.     

A review on using heat as a tool for studying groundwater–surface water interactions

In terms of the research on groundwater–surface water heat-tracing methods, investigation of the interactions within the compound system of the groundwater–surface water–hyporheic zone can effectively reveal the relevant physicochemical processes and microbial properties. The evaluation of these properties represents a key component in qualitative and quantitative research on groundwater–surface water interactions. Therefore, this paper reviews the research results on groundwater–surface water interactions achieved by related researchers using heat as a natural tracer over the last decade. In connection with the application of heat-tracing theory to the basic principles of hyporheic exchange between groundwater and surface water, research on groundwater–surface water interaction through one-dimensional steady-state and transient-state heat transport analytical models, techniques to collect and analyze temperature time series data, and numerical simulation technology is reviewed. In addition, directions for future research using groundwater–surface water heat-tracing methods are suggested. First, hypothetical, difficult temperature boundary and hydrogeological conditions require further research. Second, hydrodynamic exchange capacity and the processes of heat exchange and solute concentration exchange in the hyporheic zone alongside riverbeds should be appropriately and accurately measured under multi-scale influences. Third, the overall study of the heat transport process inside the hyporheic zone induced by complex riverbed forms should be performed, and the response mechanism of riverbed hyporheic exchanges driven by riverbed form, the hydrodynamic force of surface water, and sediment permeability should be revealed. The objectives and goals of this paper are to encourage scholars interested in analyzing groundwater–surface water interactions using heat as a tracer to creatively solve practical problems and to improve the ecological functions of river aquatic habitats through new research results.     

A comparative study of shallow groundwater level simulation with WA–ANN and ITS model in a coastal island of south China

Accurate and reliable prediction of shallow groundwater level is a critical component in water resources management. Two nonlinear models, WA–ANN method based on discrete wavelet transform (WA) and artificial neural network (ANN) and integrated time series (ITS) model, were developed to predict groundwater level fluctuations of a shallow coastal aquifer (Fujian Province, China). The two models were testified with the monitored groundwater level from 2000 to 2011. Two representative wells are selected with different locations within the study area. The error criteria were estimated using the coefficient of determination (R ²), Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E), and root-mean-square error (RMSE). The best model was determined based on the RMSE of prediction using independent test data set. The WA–ANN models were found to provide more accurate monthly average groundwater level forecasts compared to the ITS models. The results of the study indicate the potential of WA–ANN models in forecasting groundwater levels. It is recommended that additional studies explore this proposed method, which can be used in turn to facilitate the development and implementation of more effective and sustainable groundwater management strategies.     

A new generalized soil thermal conductivity model for sand–kaolin clay mixtures using thermo-time domain reflectometry probe test

As the demand of exploitation and utilization of geothermal energy increases, more geothermal-related earth structures occur recently. The design of the structures depends upon an accurate prediction of soil thermal conductivity. The existing soil thermal conductivity models were mostly developed by empirical fits to datasets of soil thermal conductivity measurements. Due to the gaps in measured thermal conductivities between any two tested natural soils, the models may not provide accurate prediction for other soils, and the predicted thermal conductivity might not be continuous over the entire range of soil type. In this research, a generalized soil thermal conductivity model was proposed based on a series of laboratory experiments on sand, kaolin clay and sand–kaolin clay mixtures using a newly designed thermo-time domain reflectometry probe. The model was then validated with respect to k _dry–n (thermal conductivity of dry soils and porosity) and k _r–S _r (normalized thermal conductivity and degree of saturation) relationships by comparing with previous experimental studies. The predicted thermal conductivities were found to be in a good agreement with the experimental data collected from both this study and the other literatures with at least 85% confidence interval. It is concluded that the proposed model accounts for the effects of both environmental factors (i.e., moisture content and dry density) and compositional factors (i.e., quartz content and soil type) on soil thermal conductivity, and it has a great potential in predicting soil thermal conductivity more accurately for geothermal applications.     

A discretization and multigrid solver for a Darcy–Stokes system of three dimensional vuggy porous media

We develop a finite element discretization and multigrid solver for a Darcy–Stokes system of three-dimensional vuggy porous media, i.e., porous media with cavities. The finite element method uses low-order mixed finite elements in the Darcy and Stokes domains and special transition elements near the Darcy–Stokes interface to allow for tangential discontinuities implied by the Beavers–Joseph boundary condition. We design a multigrid method to solve the resulting saddle point linear system. The intertwining of the Darcy and Stokes subdomains makes the resulting matrix highly ill-conditioned. The velocity field is very irregular, and its discontinuous tangential component at the Darcy–Stokes interface makes it difficult to define intergrid transfer operators. Our definition is based on mass conservation and the analysis of the orders of magnitude of the solution. The coarser grid equations are defined using the Galerkin method. A new smoother of Uzawa type is developed based on taking an optimal step in a good search direction. Our algorithm has a measured convergence factor independent of the size of the system, at least when there are no disconnected vugs. We study the macroscopic effective permeability of a vuggy medium, showing that the influence of vug orientation; shape; and, most importantly, interconnectivity determine the macroscopic flow properties of the medium. This work was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants DMS-0074310 and DMS-0417431.     

A review of the pressure–temperature–time evolution of the Limpopo Belt: Constraints for a tectonic model

Published literature argues that the Limpopo Belt can be subdivided into three zones, each with a distinctive geological character and tectono-metamorphic fingerprint. There are currently two contrasting schools of thought regarding the tectono-metamorphic evolution of the CZ. One camp argues that geochronological, structural and prograde pressure–temperature (P–T) evidence collectively indicate that the CZ underwent tectono-metamorphism at ca. 2.0 Ga which followed a clockwise P–T evolution during a transpressive orogeny that was initiated by the collision of the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe cratons. Deformation and metamorphism consistent with this scenario are observed in the southern part of the NMZ but are curiously absent from the whole of the SMZ. The opposing view argues that the peak metamorphism associated with the collision of the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe cratons occurred at ca. 2.6 Ga and the later metamorphic event is an overprint associated with reactivation along Archean shear zones. Post-peak-metamorphic conditions, which at present cannot be convincingly related to either a ca. 2.6 or 2.0 Ga event in the CZ reveal contrasting retrograde paths implying either near-isothermal decompression and isobaric cooling associated with a ‘pop-up’ style of exhumation or steady decompression–cooling linked to exhumation controlled by erosion. Recent data argue that the prograde evolution of the ca. 2.0 Ga event is characterised by isobaric heating prior to decompression–cooling. Contrasting P–T paths indicate that either different units exist within the CZ that underwent different P–T evolutions or that some P–T work is erroneous due to the application of equilibrium thermobarometry to mineral assemblages that are not in equilibrium. The morphology of the P–T path(s) for the ca. 2.6–2.52 Ga event are also a matter of dispute. Some workers have postulated an anticlockwise P–T evolution during this period whilst others regard this metamorphic event as following a clockwise evolution. Granitoid magmatism is broadly contemporaneous in all three zones at ca. 2.7–2.5 suggesting a possible causal geodynamic link. P–T contrasts between and within the respective zones prevent, at present, the construction of a coherent and inter-related tectonic model that can account for all of the available evidence. Detailed and fully-integrated petrological and geochronological studies are required to produce reliable P–T–t paths that may resolve some of these pertinent issues.     

A new U–Pb zircon age and a volcanogenic model for the early Permian Chemnitz Fossil Forest

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Chemnitz Fossil Forest depicts one of the most completely preserved forest ecosystems in late Paleozoic Northern Hemisphere of tropical Pangaea. Fossil...     

Application of the content–area (C–A) fractal model and prediction–area (P–A) plot for mineral prospectivity modeling in the Luchun area of Yunnan Province,China

This method of assigning weights based on expert opinion introduces bias when we are evaluating the relative importance of evidence values. In this paper, we used a prediction–area (P–A) plot method and content–area (C–A) fractal model to estimate the weight of each evidence map. In this paper, we used the content region (C–A) fractal model to divide the evidence maps to the threshold of the corresponding dimensions. The P–A plot approach is an objective data-driven approach for evaluating map weights. Using geochemical layer and remote sensing, hydroxyl layers as weight evidence maps are the highlights of this study. We use the P–A method from which we can evaluate the predictive ability of each evidence map with respect to the known ore occurrences. We used the P–A plot for weighting each evidence map and choosing the appropriate threshold for predictor maps in the Luchun area of Yunnan Province, China. The method adopted in this paper can improve the prediction efficiency of ore prospecting.     

A self-consistent top–down model for differentiation in bimodal suites: application to the Sonju Lake Intrusion–Finland granite system (MN)

The Sonju Lake Intrusion (SLI) is a 1200-meter thick layered mafic intrusion that directly underlies an equally large silicic pluton, the Finland granophyre (FG) within the Beaver Bay Complex of the Mid-Continent Rift (MN, USA). The SLI, with a simple mineralogical and compositional stratigraphy, provides an excellent case study for examining the changes in iron isotope ratios (δ⁵⁶Fe). Here new Fe isotope data along with ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr for a set of stratigraphically controlled samples from the SLI and FG are presented. The Fe isotope data show systematic changes within two differentiation sequences found in the lowermost FG as well as the upper portion of the SLI. Specifically, δ⁵⁶Fe is observed to start at low values and increase to heavy values going stratigraphically up through each differentiation sequence. Within the middle portion of the SLI, δ⁵⁶Fe varies between 0 and 0.1. Two samples from the SLI bottom are isotopically lighter than the middle SLI. The origin of the Fe isotope variations is discussed in terms of recently proposed explanations. A quantitative model shows that the observed spatial variation is consistent with the prediction of a temperature gradient model. Using present constraints on equilibrium phase partitioning, the iron isotope variations do not appear consistent with production by fractional crystallization. Based on these observations, a top–down sill emplacement process coupled with in situ differentiation remains a viable alternative model for forming this layered intrusion.     

Assignment of groundwater level at the wastewater collecting pipe for a landfill groundwater simulation: utilization of the two-dimensional saturated–unsaturated groundwater numerical model

In order to understand the effects of a landfill operation on groundwater flow behavior, a 2D horizontal groundwater simulation model was carried out. The model saved the memory of computer and time consumption, comparing it with the 3D groundwater flow model. However, the greatest difficulty is the assignment of the collecting pipe boundary at the study site. Therefore, a 2D vertical model was applied to calculate the change of the groundwater table above the collecting pipe. This paper focuses on examining the validation of the assignment of the collecting pipe boundary by applying the results of the 2D vertical model. The 2D horizontal model was coupled with the recharge model to solve the partial differential equation of groundwater flow. The finite difference method and iterative successive over relaxation were applied. The drainage volume of leachate collection was summed up in the whole landfill site and compared with the average volume of treated wastewater. The study demonstrated that the results of the 2D vertical model validated and can be applied to the 2D horizontal groundwater flow simulation.