Hazard analysis of seismic submarine slope instability

To assess the risk associated with a submarine landslide, one must estimate the probability of slope failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the probability of earthquake-induced submarine slope failure (hazard) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, ground response analyses and advanced laboratory tests. The outcomes from these analyses are treated in a probabilistic framework, with analytical simulations using mathematical techniques such as the first-order reliability method, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian updating. Fragility curves of slope failure during the earthquake (co-seismic) and after the earthquake (post-seismic) were developed in this study, and were shown to provide a clear and well-organized procedure to estimate the annual failure probability of a submarine slope under earthquake loading.     

Floor failure analysis at a longwall mining face based on the multiple sliding block model

This paper presents an analytical model of a floor failure at a longwall coal mining face based on the multiple sliding block model. During longwall mining, stresses and displacements of strata are constantly changing. High stress concentrations at the coal face can exceed the rock strength and initiate fractures in the strata that can, under unfavourable conditions, lead to large floor displacements and disruption of mining operations. Underground observations of the rock floor and the computational modelling of the longwall face indicate that two types of fracture dominate floor failure. Extensive lateral fracturing often develops along the numerous weak bedding planes that are typically present in the sedimentary strata while sub-vertical fractures form in response to changing stress abutments ahead of the longwall coal face. The fractures that initially develop ahead of the longwall face are subject to a secondary movement when exposed ahead of the longwall supports. In response to the stress relief as the coal is mined from above, strata move towards the opening and bending of the floor occurs. If fractures in the floor exist, the floor blocks will displace in response to the floor movement and interact at the fractured surfaces. This analysis attempts to explain how the stress distribution develops within the broken floor during an active movement of floor strata leading to high stress concentrations at the floor level. The analytical formulation in this paper is supplemented by numerical modelling, and results are presented to verify that the analytical solutions are in accordance with the numerical predictions.     

Investigation of permanent displacements of near-fault seismic slopes by a general sliding block model

Landslides - A general sliding block model for calculating permanent displacement of slope is presented. Ground shaking can be applied to base or block in a direction horizontal or parallel to the...     

基于随机块石模型的土石混合边坡稳定性分析方法研究

为了准确地分析土石混合边坡的稳定性,克服传统有限元方法分析土石混合边坡的不足,提出一种考虑块石随机分布及含量的土石混合边坡稳定性分析方法。该方法根据土石混合边坡中的块石含量及级配,随机生成了含石率从10%～60%的土石混合体模型,每种含石率均考虑8种不同的块石分布位置,最后将生成的模型导入到OPTUM G2中建立土石混合边坡模型,采用有限元极限分析法对土石混合边坡的稳定性进行了分析,并将计算结果与采用两种等效强度参数模型所得的结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明,由于块石空间分布位置的不同,相同含石率下土石混合边坡的最大、最小下、上限安全系数变化较大;土石混合边坡坡体中的塑性区不再是圆弧型,而是呈现出"绕石"、"分流"和"包含"三种典型的扩展模式;采用两种等效强度参数模型与随机块石模型所得的边坡安全系数存在较大差异。研究成果可为土石混合边坡的设计及施工提供参考依据。     

Uncertainty quantification in the calibration of a dynamic viscoplastic model of slow slope movements

Most landslides occurring in Italy consist of shallow-translational movements, which involve fine, essentially clayey material. They are usually characterized by low velocities, typically of few centimeters per year. The main triggering factor is hydrologic, since movements are usually strictly connected to groundwater level fluctuations. This slow and periodical trend can be interpreted by a viscous soil response, and in order to catch the actual kinematics of the soil mass behavior, a dynamic analysis should be adopted. This paper discusses the case of the Alverà mudslide, located in the Northern Alps (Italy), for which a very detailed and almost 9-year-long monitoring database, including displacements and groundwater levels records, is available. A well-defined dynamic viscoplastic model, capable of returning a displacement prediction and a mobilized shear strength angle estimate from a groundwater level input, was considered. A first deterministic calibration proved the ability of the model to reproduce the mudslide overall displacements trend if a suitable reduction of the mobilized angle _0\varphi ^{\prime }_{0} is allowed. Then, an uncertainty quantification analysis was performed by measuring the model parameters variability, and all parameters could be represented using a probability density function and a correlation structure. As a consequence, it was possible to define a degree of uncertainty for model predictions, so that an assessment of the model reliability was obtained. The final outcome is believed to represent an important advancement in relation to hazard assessment and for future landslide risk management.     

基于SLFT边坡双折减系数强度失稳判据

基于滑移线场理论（SLFT）,提出了一种边坡双折减系数强度折减法失稳判据：当由滑移线场理论计算得到的极限状态下的边坡坡面（简称\     

预加固高填方边坡滑动破坏的离心模型试验研究

2009年10月3日,攀枝花机场260×104 m3万方的高填方预加固边坡整体失稳,沿基覆界面下滑,并超覆于其下方的易家坪老滑坡之上,使易家坪老滑坡再次复活。这一填方边坡失稳事件最终导致机场停航两年。通过大型离心模型试验,再现了攀枝花机场预加固高填方边坡的滑动失稳过程,获得了边坡变形破裂的特征参量,阐明了边坡的滑动失稳机制。研究表明：天然工况下,边坡变形以坡顶沉降和沿基覆界面软弱层的蠕滑为主,坡体总体处于蠕滑变形状态;降雨和地下水工况下,坡体中后部拉张破裂和中前部挤压变形显著,具有塑性流动及推移式破坏特征,并最终产生溃滑失稳;预加固抗滑桩承受较大的边坡变形推力,且越靠近坡体后部的桩推力越大,最终从后向前逐排产生累进性剪断破坏,说明该填方边坡多排抗滑桩的平面布置和受力确定欠合理;降雨和地下水工况下,坡体的最大孔隙水压力是天然工况下的3.7倍,孔隙水压力对坡体失稳有重要作用;通过模型和原型的综合对比分析,该边坡的滑动失稳机制为推移式蠕滑-累进性折断-溃滑与超覆。     

基于椭球滑动体假定和三维简化JANBU法的边坡稳定分析

采用一般椭球体模拟三维土坡的滑动体,利用三维简化JANBU法计算其安全系数,该法假定各个条柱底面的滑动方向在水平面上的投影相等,借此可用一个变量来表达各个底滑面的滑动方向,简便易行。此外,综合借鉴粒子群优化算法和和声算法的优点,提出了改进的粒子群算法,并利用对2个三维土坡的最危险滑动体进行了搜索,与已有结果进行了对比分析,表明方法是可行有效的。     

基于应变软化的多阶边坡稳定分析

多阶边坡除了最危险滑面需要关注,每级台阶的潜在滑面及其他不满足规范要求的滑面亦需要得到重视。以双台阶边坡和复杂多台阶边坡为例,基于应变软化理论,利用FLAC3D软件分析边坡的剪应变发展规律,根据剪应变的集中带获取边坡的多个潜在滑面。分析滑面的剪入、剪出和滑面中部点的强度参数变化规律,并结合矢量和法分析滑面在应变软化过程中安全系数的演化规律。研究结果表明：采用该方法可获取边坡的最危险滑面及次级滑动面;随着软化的发展,滑面上点的强度参数从峰值强度逐渐降低至残余强度,然而演化的速度不同;随着应变软化过程的发展,所有滑面的安全系数均逐渐降低,最后趋于一个定值。     

黏性土固结不排水剪切的滑动损伤模型研究

在工程荷载范围内,不计骨架颗粒的变形,骨架的变形实际是颗粒接触面变形的总和。当剪应力达到某个临界值时,黏性土骨架中有一部分颗粒接触面开始滑动,随着剪应力的增大,出现滑动的颗粒接触面的取向范围也会扩大。将这种颗粒接触面的滑动视为一种损伤。在损伤阶段,黏性土骨架中既有未滑动的接触面,也有已滑动的接触面,宏观剪切模量是这两种接触面的剪切模量的加权平均。在 平面中,根据应力圆与颗粒起始滑动包络线的相对位置,计算出已出现了滑动的颗粒接触面的取向范围,并定义该取向范围与其所能达到的最大值（由破坏时的应力圆计算）之比为骨架的损伤比。按损伤比进行加权平均得到骨架的整体剪切模量。模型中的参数完全可以根据常规三轴试验确定,模型的形式简单,可适用于复杂的应力路径。对试验结果的拟合表明,该模型能较好地反映黏性土在固结不排水条件下剪切变形的主要特征。     

黏性土固结不排水剪切的滑动损伤模型研究

在工程荷载范围内,不计骨架颗粒的变形,骨架的变形实际是颗粒接触面变形的总和。当剪应力达到某个临界值时,黏性土骨架中有一部分颗粒接触面开始滑动,随着剪应力的增大,出现滑动的颗粒接触面的取向范围也会扩大。将这种颗粒接触面的滑动视为一种损伤。在损伤阶段,黏性土骨架中既有未滑动的接触面,也有已滑动的接触面,宏观剪切模量是这两种接触面的剪切模量的加权平均。在σ-τ平面中,根据应力圆与颗粒起始滑动包络线的相对位置,计算出已出现了滑动的颗粒接触面的取向范围,并定义该取向范围与其所能达到的最大值（由破坏时的应力圆计算）之比为骨架的损伤比。按损伤比进行加权平均得到骨架的整体剪切模量。模型中的参数完全可以根据常规三轴试验确定,模型的形式简单,可适用于复杂的应力路径。对试验结果的拟合表明,该模型能较好地反映黏性土在固结不排水条件下剪切变形的主要特征。     

A simple model for preliminary evaluation of rainfall-induced slope instability

Slope failures in the tropical regions, particularly Malaysia are commonly triggered by frequent rainfall. The tropical rainfall can be characterized as short and intense throughout the year, and prolonged and less intense during monsoon seasons. Under such circumstances, various rainfall patterns should be included in the analysis of rainfall-induced slope failure in the tropical regions. This paper is aimed to demonstrate a simple model for preliminary evaluation of rainfall-induced slope failure. The critical rainfall patterns for four typical types of soil were first determined. Seepage finite element analyses were conducted using the extreme rainfall of ten-year return period for Johor Bahru, Malaysia. The results showed that the ratio of rainfall intensity to soil saturated permeability (i.e., I/k_sat) plays an important role in determining the critical rainfall pattern. Two critical combinations of antecedent rainfall and major rainfall, 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 5-day, 7-day, 14-day, and 30-day antecedent rainfalls and the redistribution of the critical combination of antecedent rainfall and 1-day major rainfall were responsible for the formation of suction envelope in soil. The suction envelope, representing the worst suction distribution in soil, was used for the computation of factor of safety of soil slope through the modified infinite-slope–limit-equilibrium method. A model, PERISI, was developed based on the findings from numerical simulation. The suction envelope and factor of safety computed from the PERISI model showed good agreements with the results obtained from Seep/W and Slope/W computer programs and the results derived from the model of Rahardjo et al. developed in 1995.     

基于主成分和半参数的大坝变形监测回归模型

主成分分析在一定程度上可以解决大坝变形监测回归模型因子间的复共线性,然而当提取的主成分信息不充分时,主成分回归用于大坝安全预测可能失效。提出以主成分分析提取的主成分作为半参数回归的参数分量,剩余成分和模型误差作为未知的非参数分量对主成分回归进行补偿,建立一种基于主成分和半参数的大坝变形监测混合回归模型。利用某大坝实测资料进行建模分析,结果表明该混合模型能克服回归因子间的复共线性,避免半参数回归补偿最小二乘估计中法矩阵的病态性,比传统的主成分回归和逐步回归模型具有更好的拟合和预报精度。     

基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的凹形边坡稳定性分析

坡面形态对边坡表面应力状态影响显著,而应力状态与边坡稳定性密切相关。以往的降雨入渗模型仅考虑直线形态的边坡,并没有考虑边坡为曲线形态的情况。将Mein-Larson入渗模型与坡形函数相结合,推导降雨作用下凹形边坡的入渗函数,结合极限平衡分析方法,提出一种凹形边坡稳定性计算模型。同时根据坡形拟合与坡形简化的思路,将实际边坡分别当作成凹形边坡和直线边坡进行研究。研究结果表明:湿润锋入渗深度与降雨时间呈线性关系,湿润锋面在不同降雨时刻下均与坡面平行。将实际边坡当作凹形边坡进行分析时,其降雨入渗规律更符合实际情况;当降雨时间为10天时,浅层斜坡模型得到的计算结果为0.95,而本文计算模型与数值模拟得到的稳定性系数分别为1.004和1.003,相对误差不超过1%。因此与以往提出的计算模型相比,该模型不仅考虑了实际边坡的坡面形态,而且具有计算简便、可靠度较高等特点。     

黏土不排水条件下的应力路径损伤本构模型

黏土的变形主要受土颗粒之间的联结方式控制,将土颗粒之间的联结方式分为完善联结和滑动联结。在弹性变形阶段,颗粒之间的联结为完善联结,随着剪应力的增大,骨架中一部分完善联结逐渐变成滑动联结,这种转变即为损伤的演化。骨架的损伤和破坏遵循Mohr-Coulomb准则,在p-q平面中以应力点到初始损伤线和破坏线的相对距离表示损伤比,给出了一种描述骨架损伤和计算损伤演化的方法,进而提出了一种描述黏土在不排水条件下剪切变形的损伤本构模型。模型中的参数可根据常规三轴压缩试验确定,模型的形式简单,可适用于复杂的应力路径情况。对试验结果的拟合表明,该模型能较好地反映黏土在不排水条件下的剪切变形特征。     

溜砂坡滑塌特性及内在演化结构实验探索

溜砂坡滑塌特性与内在演化结构的认识，有助于对该高寒地区山地道路灾害的防治与预报。通过非连续与连续加沙两种形式的干燥沙石散粒体临界态单面坡室内模型实验，初步探索了溜砂坡的滑塌规模统计特性与演化动力学规律。发现其受颗粒级配非均匀度影响而异差异很大。非均匀沙堆呈现明显负幂率分布统计特点。对滑塌演化动力学的相空间分析进一步揭示，非均匀沙堆的演化结构复杂，动力学吸引子分维数较大；而均匀沙堆演化结构相对简单，体现准周期特点，可以自相关分析进行主周期预测。利用小波变换，分析了非均匀沙坡滑塌演化的复杂内在结构，即演化过程由不同周期、不同规模的滑塌一回复过程复合而成。尝试以选择合适预报精度进行时间尺度变化，用小波系数截线对演化活跃周期初步估计。     

基于地质模型快速构建的边坡三维稳定性分析

目前边坡稳定性分析多以二维剖面为主,随着各种数值分析软件的应用,边坡的三维稳定性分析技术越来越成熟,但是对于三维边坡的地质模型快速构建的方法不多,且建模精度难以得到保证。本文借助Geobim软件建立工程区的三维地质模型,提出借助surfer、Ansys等软件快速建立flac3d能够识别的类型文件的方法,此方法能够大大简化建模过程,提高建模精度。根据工程区的主要工程地质问题,对工程区的三维地质模型进行概化,结合相关实例对其进行三维地质建模,并借助flac3d软件计算不同工况下边坡的稳定性情况。根据计算结果可知,在暴雨工况下,边坡的稳定性降低,填方工况下,边坡的侧向位移变大,但是其稳定性相对较好,边坡的主要破坏模式为沿着填筑体及边坡的浅表层全、强风化层发生剪切破坏。     

A parametric analysis for the Dafalias-Kaliakin bounding surface viscoplastic model based on the Diflupress L.D. test

In order to predict delayed settlements of heavy structures, the authors decided to use the elasto-viscoplastic model of Dafalias-Kaliakin. To identify the parameters of the constitutive equations, they use above all the data of a new in-situ test, the Diflupress L.D. designed to approach the creep behavior of soil. In a first section, the principle of the model is presented. Then, the important parameters of the model are identified, mostly from in-situ test data since the laboratory tests data are not numerous and reliable. Finally, a study of sensitivity on the parameters which influence the viscoplastic response of the model is made.