Probabilistic forecasting of landslide displacement accounting for epistemic uncertainty: a case study in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,China

Accurate and reliable displacement forecasting plays a key role in landslide early warning. However, due to the epistemic uncertainties associated with landslide systems, errors are unavoidable and sometimes significant in traditional methods of deterministic point forecasting. Transforming traditional point forecasting into probabilistic forecasting is essential for quantifying the associated uncertainties and improving the reliability of landslide displacement forecasting. This paper proposes a hybrid approach based on bootstrap, extreme learning machine (ELM), and artificial neural network (ANN) methods to quantify the associated uncertainties via probabilistic forecasting. The hybrid approach consists of two steps. First, a bootstrap-based ELM is applied to estimate the true regression mean of landslide displacement and the corresponding variance of model uncertainties. Second, an ANN is used to estimate the variance of noise. Reliable prediction intervals (PIs) can be computed by combining the true regression mean, variance of model uncertainty, and variance of noise. The performance of the proposed hybrid approach was validated using monitoring data from the Shuping landslide, Three Gorges Reservoir area, China. The obtained results suggest that the Bootstrap-ELM-ANN approach can be used to perform probabilistic forecasting in the medium term and long term and to quantify the uncertainties associated with landslide displacement forecasting for colluvial landslides with step-like deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.     

On the applicability of satellite SAR interferometry to landslide hazards detection in hilly areas: a case study of Shuicheng,Guizhou in Southwest China

Landslides - SAR Interferometry (InSAR) has been proven to be effective for measuring landslides deformation. However, the InSAR application of landslide mapping is limited by the blind observation...     

Landslide hazard assessment of rainfall-induced landslide based on the CF-SINMAP model: a case study from Wuling Mountain in Hunan Province,China

Natural Hazards - The traditional Stability INdex MAPping (SINMAP) model does not perform detailed divisions of study areas and neglects differences caused by the asymmetrical spatial distribution...     

A new approach to use AHP in landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study at Yenice (Karabuk, NW Turkey)

This study aimed to investigate the parameter effects in preparing landslide susceptibility maps with a data-driven approach and to adapt this approach to analytical hierarchy process (AHP). For this purpose, at the first stage, landslide inventory of an area located in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey covering approximately 567?km² was prepared, and a total of 101 landslides were mapped. In order to assess the landslide susceptibility, a total of 13 parameters were considered as the input parameters: slope, aspect, plan curvature, topographical elevation, vegetation cover index, land use, distance to drainage, distance to roads, distance to structural elements, distance to ridges, stream power index, sediment transport capacity index, and wetness index. AHP was selected as the major assessment methodology since the adapted approach and AHP work in data pairs. Adapted to AHP, a similarity relation?Cbased approach, namely landslide relation indicator (LRI) for parameter selection method, was also proposed. AHP and parametric effect analyses were performed by the proposed approach, and seven landslide susceptibility maps were produced. Among these maps, the best performance was gathered from the landslide susceptibility map produced by 9 parameter combinations using area under curve (AUC) approach. For this map, the AUC value was calculated as 0.797, while the others ranged between 0.686 and 0.771. According to this map, 38.3?% of the study area was classified as having very low, 8.5?% as low, 15.0?% as moderate, 20.3?% as high, and 17.9?% as very high landslide susceptibility, respectively. Based on the overall assessments, the proposed approach in this study was concluded as objective and applicable and yielded reasonable results.     

Influence of seismic acceleration on landslide susceptibility maps: a case study from NE Turkey (the Kelkit Valley)

Particularly in the last decade, landslide susceptibility and hazard maps have been used for urban planning and site selection of infrastructures. Most of the procedures for preparing of landslide susceptibility maps need high-quality landslide inventory map. Although the rainfall and seismic activities are accepted as triggering factor for landslides, designation of the triggering factor for each landslide in the inventory is almost impossible when well-documented records are unavailable. Therefore, during preparation of landslide susceptibility map, whole landslide records in the inventory map are used together without classifying based on the triggering factors. Although seismic activity is accepted as a triggering factor, possible effect of the use of seismic activity on production of landslide susceptibility map was investigated in this study, and the subject is open to discussion. For this purpose, a series of stability analyses based on circular failure and infinite slope model were performed considering different pseudostatic conditions. The results of analyses show that gentle slopes have higher susceptibility to failure than steeper ones, even if their stability conditions (susceptibilities) are similar for static condition. The seismic forces acting on failure surfaces may not be sufficiently taken into consideration in the conventionally prepared landslide susceptibility maps. Employing the general decreasing trend in stability condition based on slope face angle and the seismic acceleration, a new procedure was introduced for preparing of the landslide susceptibility map for a scenario earthquake. The prediction performance of occurring landslides increased after the procedure was applied to the conventionally prepared landslide susceptibility map. According to the threshold independent spatial performance analyses of the proposed methodology and the produced landslide susceptibility maps, the area under ROC curve values were calculated as 0.801, 0.933, and 0.947 for the maps prepared by considering conventional method and scenario earthquakes having M _w values of 5.5 and 7.5, respectively.     

Comparison of rockfall susceptibility assessment at local and regional scale: a case study in the north of Beijing (China)

This study shows a rockfall susceptibility assessment at local scale in north Beijing of China, including the identification of rockfall sources onsite by terrain and rock discontinuities analysis and run-out distance prediction by Rocfall^? simulation. Two types of rockfall were defined including one type on the cliffs with long inclined slopes and another type on the road slopes with low height. Two historical rockfall events were used to back-calibrating the parameters used for run-out distance simulation. Based on the work, rockfall susceptibility map at local scale was created in GIS, which was compared with the map obtained at regional scale (entire Huairou district scale). Due to the difference of approaches applied, procedure of assessment and types of source data acquired, the two resulting rockfall susceptibility maps are proved to be different. Still, both of them are useful and could be used at different level’s decision for rockfall prevention and mitigation. Different types of uncertainties exist in the study of rockfall susceptibility assessment. To reduce the uncertainties, studies on both approaches and techniques are suggested.     

Appraise the structural mitigation of landslide risk via numerical modelling: a case study from the northern Apennines (Italy)

The Ca’ Lita landslide is a large and deep-seated mass movement located in the northern Apennines, about 70 km west of Bologna (Northern Italy). It consists of a composite landslide that affects Cretaceous to Eocene flysch rock masses and chaotic complexes. Many of the sectors making up the landslide have resumed activity between 2002 and 2006, threatening some villages and an important road connecting several key industrial facilities located in the upper watershed. This paper presents the management of the emergency, dealing with the investigation campaigns (geological, geomorphological and LiDAR surveys, borehole drillings, seismic surveys), with the monitoring (in situ instrumentation) and with the design and construction of mitigation measures. The whole process, from landslide reactivation to date, has been modelled on a numerical basis with the finite difference code FLAC 2D, to assess the efficiency of the mitigation system and to propose further countermeasure works in different scenarios.     

Social-geographical problems of a metropolitan region within a Soviet Republic (a case study of the Tbilisi metropolitan region, Georgia, U.S.S.R.)

While the capital city and its surrounding territory often forms the most important nodal region in any country, this very nodality may give rise to social problems. In the case of the Tbilisi metropolitan region, Georgia, U.S.S.R., social development has been conditioned by such factors as the Soviet centralized economic management system, administrative control of population in-migration, state ownership of land, and the tendency towards hyperurbanization. For most Georgians Tbilisi is the republic's most attractive city, and it is in actual fact the leading city in terms of material welfare. Nevertheless, the metropolitan region suffers from a number of concrete social problems whose significance is analysed by means of an opinion poll of metropolitan region inhabitants and a comparative poll conducted in a rural area. While some problems such as retail trade deficiency and the low quality of consumer goods appear to cause universal concern, others such as housing provision and design, ecological problems and social pathology (crime, alcoholism, drug abuse, prostitution) cause greater anxiety among metropolitan residents. It is hoped that recent policies of decentralization and economic reform will help solve some of these difficulties.     

A GIS model for preliminary hazard assessment of swelling clays,a case study in Harran plain (SE Turkey)

Swelling behavior of clayey soils regarded as a hidden disaster, causes a great deal of damage in light hydraulic structures such as drinking water network, irrigation pipes or open canal linings through which water can easily leak and penetrate into soil during loading and unloading stages. Early identification during site investigation and laboratory testing is extremely important to ensure that the appropriate design strategy is adopted. The clay soils having swelling potential are generally found in arid and semi-arid regions, such as in the Şanlıurfa-Harran plain located in the southeast of Turkey. The problems associated with swelling clays occurred for the lightweight hydraulic structures constructed in Turkey have been met during the construction of irrigation structures in the scope of Southeast Anatolian Project as the Turkey’s greatest water resources project. Therefore, the identification of such soils and the assessment of their swelling potential parameters are necessary for hazard mitigation planning and land-use management. In this scope, extensive geotechnical study is executed for an investigation area. The samples were obtained from the Harran plain where many irrigation canal structures are constructed, and geotechnical study was performed on these samples. Atterberg limit tests often provide the basic field information to substantiate the soil’s swelling nature. The plasticity index (PI) and liquid limit (LL) values are also used extensively for classifying swelling soil and should always be determined during preliminary investigations. Because of this, LL and PI are assessed by using geographical information system (GIS)-based computer software, and LL and PI contour maps are created. Swelling percentages of the soil samples were carried out on both undisturbed and compacted soil samples by using direct methods. As a result of this extensive study, the values of swelling percentages determined for each location are used to obtain the swelling potential hazard map of the area by means of a GIS program. The results of GIS analyses for this area indicate that the analyses based on a lot of data introduce meaningful results for this study. It is expected that these maps will be a useful tool for planners and engineers in their efforts to achieve better land-use planning and to decide necessary remedial measures.     

Hydrogeological component assessment for water resources management of semi-arid region: a case study of Gwalior,M.P., India

Groundwater management is of fundamental importance to meet the rapidly expanding urban, industrial and agricultural water requirements in semi-arid areas. To assess the current rate of groundwater withdrawal and possibility of recharge of potential aquifer in the semi-arid regions is essential for water management. The present study aimed to identify potential area for groundwater recharge structure in the Gwalior area based on land use, rainfall variation, hydrological component and statistical analysis. In this work, a stream survival approach was used for the assessment of water channel by using triangulated network and regression analysis to find out the correlation of individual component with reference to water management. Land use/land cover (LULC) map prepared from multispectral satellite images of the study area and used to validate the hydrological component and the results observed through the regression model shows good correlation. Therefore, immediate and effective water management schemes are required for sustainable water resource development and management in the area.     

Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in the northern Apennines (Reggio Emilia Province, Italy)

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km² in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.     

低级变质岩在热液蚀变过程中的微量元素地球化学行为——以赣东北银山地区双桥山群为例

对江西银山地区双桥山群绢云母千枚岩及其原岩的稀土及微量元素的研究表明，热液蚀变过程中它们的地球化学行为十分复杂：热兴蚀变作用并不使REE淋滤降低，反而导致∑REE较其原岩普遍升高，但岩体接触带附近蚀为围岩的∑REE则低于原岩。蚀变岩出现Eu亏损，∑LREE／∑HREE值降低。定量计算显示，∑REE总升幅中有29％－45％是由围岩质量迁移引起的表观浓缩效应，而另外的55％－71％则是流体带入了REE；在绢云母千格岩中娟云母可能是REE的主要寄主矿物相，REE主要以吸附作用的形式固有在矿物的表面或含有可交换电价的晶体结构层（四面体层和八面体层）的层面上；参与蚀为变作用的热液∑LREE／∑HREE值低、Eu强正异常。流体REE的带入可能是造成蚀为围岩较原岩轻重稀土比值降低的主要因素。热液蚀变作用使岩石的Eu被还原成更易活动的Eu^2 而活化迁出，导致蚀变岩的Eu负异常更显著；围岩蚀变作用凌其聪等：低级变质岩在热液蚀为过程中的微量元素地球化学行为－－以赣 东银山地区双桥山群为例。     

Numerical simulation of groundwater and early warnings from the simulated dynamic evolution trend in the plain area of Shenyang,Liaoning Province (P.R. China)

Groundwater level is the most direct factor reflecting whether groundwater is in a virtuous cycle. It is the most important benchmark for deciding whether a balance can be struck between groundwater discharge and recharge and whether groundwater exploitation will trigger problems pertinent to environment, ecology and environmental geology. According to the borehole and long-term monitoring wells data in the plain area of Shenyang, a numerical groundwater model is established and used to identify and verify the hydrogeological parameters and balanced items of groundwater. Then the concept of red line levels, the control levels of groundwater is proposed, the dynamic evolution trend of groundwater under different scenarios is analyzed and predicted and groundwater alerts are given when groundwater tables are not between the lower limit and the upper limit. Results indicated: (1) The results of identification and verification period fitted well, and the calculation accuracy of balanced items was high; (2) with the implementation of shutting wells, groundwater levels in urban areas of Shenyang would exceed the upper limit water level after 2020 and incur some secondary disasters; (3) under the recommended scenario of water resources allocation, early-warnings for groundwater tables outside the range would occur in the year of 2020, 2023, 2025 respectively for successive wet, normal and dry years. It was imperative to reopen some groundwater sources and enhance real-time supervision and early-warning to prevent the occurrence of potential problems.     

Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city,Novi Sad (Serbia)

Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc.     

Magnetic and ground probing radar measurements for soil pollution mapping in the industrial area of Val Basento (Basilicata Region, Southern Italy): a case study

The joint application of electromagnetic techniques for near-surface exploration is a useful tool for soil pollution monitoring and can also contribute towards describing the spatial distribution of pollutants. The results of a geophysical field survey that was carried out for characterizing the heavy metal and waste disposal soil pollution phenomena in the industrial area of Val Basento (Basilicata region, Southern Italy) are presented here. First, topsoil magnetic susceptibility measurements have been carried out for defining the spatial distribution of superficial pollution phenomena in the investigated area. Second, detailed and integrated measurements based on a high-resolution magnetic mapping and ground probing radar (GPR) profiling have been applied to investigate the subsurface in two industrial areas located in more polluted sites that were identified during the first phase. Our monitoring strategy discloses the way to rapidly define the zone characterized by high pollution levels deriving from chemical industries and traffic emissions and to obtain the way information about the presence of local buried sources of contamination.     

Application of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) for flood risk assessment: a case study in Malda district of West Bengal,India

A field experiment was conducted from 2 May 2010 to 1 May 2012 in the Gurbantunggut Desert, the second largest desert in China, to investigate saltation activity and its threshold velocity, and their relations with atmospheric and soil conditions. The results showed that saltation activity occurred more frequently during 08:00–20:00 Local Standard Time in spring and summer, with air temperatures between 20.0 and 29.0 °C, water vapor pressures between 0.6 and 0.9 kPa, soil temperatures between 25.0 and 30.0 °C, and a soil moisture lower than 0.04 m³/m³. At 2 m height, the saltation threshold velocity varied between 11.1 and 13.9 m/s, with a mean of 12.5 m/s. Threshold velocity showed clear seasonal variations in the following sequence: spring (11.7 m/s) < autumn (12.7 m/s) < summer (13.6 m/s). Affected by soil conditions, aeolian sand transport was weak, with an average annual aeolian sand that transported across a section (1.0 m × 2.0 m) of less than 6.0 kg.     

Geochemistry of trace metals and Pb isotopes of sediments from the lowermost Xiangjiang River, Hunan Province (P. R. China): implications on sources of trace metals

This paper reports a geochemical study of trace metals and Pb isotopes of sediments from the lowermost Xiangjiang River, Hunan province (P. R. China). Trace metals Ba, Bi, Sc, V, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Mo, Cd, Sn, Sb, Pb, Tl, Th, U, Zr, Hf, Nb and Ta were analyzed using ICP-MS, and Pb isotopes of the bulk sediments were measured by MC-ICP-MS. The results show that trace metals Cd, Bi, Sn, Sc, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Sb, Pb and Tl are enriched in the sediments. Among these metals, Cd, Bi and Sn are extremely highly enriched (EF values >40), metals Zn, Sn, Sb and Pb significantly highly (5 < EF < 20), and metals Sc, Cr, Mn, Co, Ni, Cu and Tl moderately highly (2 < EF < 5) enriched in the river sediments. All these metals, however, are moderately enriched in the lake sediments. Geochemical results of trace metals Th, Sc, Co, Cr, Zr, Hf and La, and Pb isotopes suggest that metals in the river sediments are of multi-sources, including both natural and anthropogenic sources. Metals of the natural sources might be contributed mostly from weathering of the Indosinian granites (GR) and Palaeozoic sandstones (PL), and metals of anthropogenic sources were contributed from Pb–Zn ore deposits distributed in upper river areas. Metals in the lake sediments consist of the anthropogenic proportions, which were contributed from automobile exhausts and coal dusts. Thus, heavy-metal contamination for the river sediments is attributed to the exploitation and utilization (e.g., mining, smelting, and refining) of Pb–Zn ore mineral resources in the upper river areas, and this for the lake sediments was caused by automobile exhausts and coal combustion. Metals Bi, Cd, Pb, Sn and Sb have anthropogenic proportion of higher than 90%, with natural contribution less than 10%. Metals Mn and Zn consist of anthropogenic proportion of 60–85%, with natural proportion higher than 15%. Metals Sc, Cr, Co, Cu, Tl, Th, U and Ta have anthropogenic proportion of 30–70%, with natural contribution higher than 30%. Metals Ba, V and Mo might be contributed mostly from natural process.