Northern Dvina runoff simulation using land-surface model SWAP and global databases

The potentialities of a method for evaluating runoff from Northern Dvina basin, which is based on a model of heat and water exchange between land surface and the atmosphere (SWAP) in combination with input data based on global databases on land surface parameters and different variants of meteorological data (derived from reanalysis data; reanalysis data hybridized with ground based and satellite observations; observational data of meteorological stations situated in the river basin). In all three cases, an optimization was applied to some key model parameters, including the characteristics of the land surface and correction factors for precipitation and incoming radiation.     

Precipitation and hydrological variations and related associations with large‐scale circulation in the Poyang Lake basin,China

Long streamflow series and precipitation data are analysed in this study with aim to investigate changing properties of precipitation and associated impacts on hydrological processes of the Poyang Lake basin. Underlying causes behind the precipitation variations are also explored based on the analysis of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data. Besides, water intrusion from the Yangtze River to the Poyang Lake basin is studied. The results indicate that (1) seasonal transitions of precipitation are observed, showing increasing precipitation in winter, slight increase and even decrease of precipitation in summer; (2) analysis of water vapour circulation indicates decreasing/increasing water vapour flux in summer/winter; in winter, water vapour flux tends to be from the Pacific. Altered water vapour flux is the major cause behind the altered precipitation changes across the Poyang Lake basin and (3) occurrence of water intrusion from the Yangtze River to the Poyang Lake basin is heavily influenced by hydrological processes of the Poyang Lake basin. Effects of the hydrological processes from the middle Yangtze River on the occurrence of water intrusion events are not significant. The results of this study indicate that floods and droughts should share the same concerns from the scholars and policy makers. Besides, the altered hydrological circulation and associated seasonal transition of precipitation drive us to face new challenges in terms of conservations of wetlands and ecological environment under the changing climate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Isotopic analysis to quantify the role of the Indian monsoon on water resources of selected river basins in the Himalayas

Western disturbances (WDs) and Indian summer monsoon (ISM) led precipitation play a central role in the Himalayan water budget. Estimating their contributions to water resource is although a challenging but essential for hydrologic understanding and effective water resource management. In this study, we used stable water isotope data of precipitation and surface waters to estimate the contribution of ISM and WDs to the water resources in three mountainous river basins - Indus, Bhagirathi and Teesta river basins of western, central and Eastern Himalayas. The study reveals distinct seasonality in isotope characteristics of precipitation and surface waters in each river basin is due to changes in moisture source, hydrometeorology and relief. Despite steady spatial variance in the slope and intercept of regression lines from the Teesta to Indus and the Bhagirathi river basins, the slope and intercept are close to the global meteoric water line and reported local meteoric water line of other regions in the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau. The two-component end-member mixing method using d-excess as tracer were used to estimate the contribution from ISM and WD led precipitation to surface water in aforementioned river basins. The results suggest that the influence of the ISM on the water resources is high (>72% to annual river flow) in Teesta river basin (eastern Himalayas), while as the WDs led precipitation is dominantly contributing (>70% average annual river flow) to the surface waters in the Indus river basin (western Himalayas). The contribution of ISM and WD led precipitation in Bhagirathi river basin is 60% and 40%, respectively. The findings demonstrate that the unusual changes in the ISM and WD moisture dynamics have the potential to affect the economy and food security of the region, which is dependent on the availability of water resources. The obtained results are of assistance to policy makers/mangers to make use of the information for better understanding hydrologic response amid unusual behaviour of the dual monsoon system over the region.     

On the usefulness of remote sensing input data for spatially distributed hydrological modelling: case of the Tarim River basin in China

The ecological situation of the Tarim River basin in China seriously declined since the early 1950s, mainly due to a strong increase in water abstraction for irrigation purposes. To restore the ecological system and support sustainable development of the Tarim River basin region in China, more hydrological studies are demanded to properly understand the processes of the watershed and efficiently manage the water resources. Such studies are, however, complicated due to the limited data availability, especially in the mountainous headwater regions of the Tarim River basin. This study investigated the usefulness of remote sensing (RS) data to overcome that lack of data in the spatially distributed hydrological modelling of the basin. Complementary to the conventional station‐based (SB) data, the RS products that are directly used in this study include precipitation, evapotranspiration and leaf area index. They are derived from raw image data of the Chinese Fengyun meteorological satellite and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The MODIS land surface temperature was used to calculate the atmospheric temperature lapse rate to describe the temperature dependency on topographical variations. Moreover, MODIS‐based snow cover images were used to obtain model initial conditions and as validation reference for the snow model component. Comparison of model results based on RS input versus conventional SB input exhibited similar results in terms of high and low river runoff extremes, cumulative runoff volumes in both runoff and snow melting seasons and spatial and temporal variability of snow cover. During summer time, when the snow cover shrinks in the permanent glacier region, it was found that the model resolution influences the model results dramatically, hence, showing the importance of detailed (RS based) spatially distributed input data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On Creating Global Gridded Terrestrial Water Budget Estimates from Satellite Remote Sensing

The increasing availability and reliability of satellite remote sensing products [e.g., precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), and the total water storage change (TWSC)] make it feasible to estimate the global terrestrial water budget at fine spatial resolution. In this study, we start from a reference water budget dataset that combines all available data sources, including satellite remote sensing, land surface model (LSM) and reanalysis, and investigate the roles of different non-satellite remote sensing products in closing the terrestrial water budget through a sensitivity analysis by removing/replacing one or more categories of products during the budget estimation. We also study the differences made by various satellite products for the same budget variable. We find that the gradual removal of non-satellite data sources will generally worsen the closure errors in the budget estimates, and remote sensing retrievals of P, ET, and TWSC together with runoff (R) from LSM give the worst closure errors. The gauge-corrected satellite precipitation helps to improve the budget closure (4.2–9 % non-closure errors of annual mean precipitation) against using the non-gauge-corrected precipitation (7.6–10.4 % non-closure errors). At last, a data assimilation technique, the constrained Kalman filter, is applied to enforce the water balance, and it is found that the satellite remote sensing products, though with worst closure, yield comparable budget estimates in the constrained system to the reference data. Overall, this study provides a first comparison between the water budget closure using the satellite remote sensing products and a full combination of remote sensing, LSM, and reanalysis products on a quasi-global basis. This study showcases the capability and potential of the satellite remote sensing in closing the terrestrial water budget at fine spatial resolution if properly constrained.     

Ionic and stable isotope chemistry as indicators of water sources to the Upper Mendoza River basin,Central Andes of Argentina

The Mendoza River is mainly dependent on the melting of snow and ice in the Upper Andes. Since predicted changes in climate would modify snow accumulation and glacial melting, it is important to understand the relative contributions of various water sources to river discharge. The two main mountain ranges in the basin, Cordillera Principal and Cordillera Frontal, present differences in geology and receive differing proportions of precipitation from Atlantic and Pacific moisture sources. We propose that differences in the origin of precipitation, geology and sediment contact times across the basin generate ionic and stable isotopic signatures in the water, allowing the differentiation of water sources. Waters from the Cordillera Principal had higher salinity and were more isotopically depleted than those from the Cordillera Frontal. Stable isotope composition and salinity differed among different water sources. The chemical temporal evolution of rivers and streams indicated changes in the relative contributions of different sources, pointing to the importance of glacier melting and groundwater in the river discharge.     

Many-year variations of river runoff in the Selenga basin

Many-year variations of river runoff in the Selenga basin are analyzed along with precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and basin water storages. Data of ground-based (1932–2015) and satellite observations, as well as the analysis of literature data suggest the presence of within-century cycles in the series of annual and minimum runoff. Compared with 1934–1975, the Selenga Basin shows a general tendency toward a decrease in the maximum (by 5–35%) and mean annual (up to 15%) runoff at an increase in the minimum runoff (by 30%), a decrease in the mean annual precipitation (by 12%), and an increase in potential evapotranspiration by 4% against the background of a decrease in evaporation because of lesser soil moisture content and an increase in moisture losses for infiltration because of permafrost degradation. The observed changes in water balance may have unfavorable environmental effects.     

Spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in precipitation during 1957�C2007 in the Haihe River basin, China

The present study explores the spatial and temporal changing patterns of the precipitation in the Haihe River basin of North China during 1957–2007 at annual, seasonal and monthly scales. The Mann–Kendall and Sen’s T tests are employed to detect the trends, and the segmented regression is applied to investigate possible change points. Meanwhile, Sen’s slope estimator is computed to represent the magnitudes of the temporal trends. The regional precipitation trends are also discussed based on the regional index series of four sub-basins in the basin. Serial correlation of the precipitation series is checked prior to the application of the statistical test to ensure the validity of trend detection. Moreover, moisture flux variations based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset are investigated to further reveal the possible causes behind the changes in precipitation. The results show that: (1) Although the directions of annual precipitation trends at all stations are downward, only seven stations have significant trends at the 90% confidence level, and these stations are mainly located in the western and southeastern Haihe River basin. (2) Summer is the only season showing a strong downward trend. For the monthly series, significant decreasing trends are mainly found during July, August and November, while significant increasing trends are mostly observed during May and December. In comparison with the annual series, more intensive changes can be found in the monthly series, which may indicate a shift in the precipitation regime. (3) Most shifts from increasing trends to decreasing trends occurred in May–June, July, August and December series, while opposed shifts mainly occurred in November. Summer is the only season displaying strong shift trends and the change points mostly emerged during the late 1970s to early 1980s. (4) An obvious decrease in moisture flux is observed after 1980 in comparison with the observations before 1980. The results of similar changing patterns between monthly moisture budget and precipitation confirmed that large-scale atmospheric circulation may be responsible for the shift in the annual cycle of precipitation in the Haihe River basin. These findings are expected to contribute to providing more accurate results of regional changing precipitation patterns and understanding the underlying linkages between climate change and alterations of hydrological cycles in the Haihe River basin.     

Climate and extrema of ocean waves in the East China Sea

Wave climate plays an important role in the air-sea interaction over marginal seas. Extreme wave height provides fundamental information for various ocean engineering practices, such as hazard mitigation, coastal structure design, and risk assessment. In this paper, we implement a third generation wave model and conduct a high-resolution wave hindcast over the East China Sea to reconstruct a 15-year wave field from 1988 to 2002 for derivation of monthly mean wave parameters and analysis of extreme wave conditions. The numerical results of the wave field are validated through comparison with satellite altimetry measurements, low-resolution reanalysis, and the ocean wave buoy record. The monthly averaged wave height and wave period show seasonal variation and refined spatial patterns of surface waves in the East China Sea. The climatological significant wave height and mean wave period decrease from the open ocean in the southeast toward the continental area in the northwest, with the pattern generally following the bathymetry. Extreme analysis on the significant wave height at the buoy station indicates the hindcast data underestimate the extreme values relative to the observations. The spatial pattern of extreme wave height shows single peak emerges at the southwest of Ryukyu Island although a wind forcing with multi-core structure at the extreme is applied.     

Factors controlling sediment yield in a major South American drainage basin: the Magdalena River,Colombia

The Magdalena River, a major fluvial system draining most of the Colombian Andes, has the highest sediment yield of any medium-sized or large river in South America. We examined sediment yield and its response to control variables in the Magdalena drainage basin based on a multi-year dataset of sediment loads from 32 tributary catchments. Various morphometric, hydrologic, and climatic variables were estimated in order to understand and predict the variation in sediment yield. Sediment yield varies from 128 to 2200 t km⁻² yr⁻¹ for catchments ranging from 320 to 59,600 km². The mean sediment yield for 32 sub-basins within the Magdalena basin is ∼690 t km⁻² yr⁻¹. Mean annual runoff is the dominant control and explains 51% of the observed variance in sediment yield. A multiple regression model, including two control variables, runoff and maximum water discharge, explains 58% of the variance. This model is efficient (ME=0.89) and is a valuable tool for predicting total sediment yield from tributary catchments in the Magdalena basin. Multiple correlations for those basins corresponding to the upper Magdalena, middle basin, Eastern Cordillera, and catchment areas greater than 2000 km², explain 75, 77, 89, and 78% of the variance in sediment yield, respectively. Although more variance is explained when dataset are grouped into categories, the models are less efficient (ME<0.72). Within the spatially distributed models, six catchment variables predict sediment yield, including runoff, precipitation, precipitation peakedness, mean elevation, mean water discharge, and relief. These estimators are related to the relative importance of climate and weathering, hillslope erosion, and fluvial transport processes. Time series analysis indicates that significant increases in sediment load have occurred over 68% of the catchment area, while 31% have experienced a decreasing trend in sediment load and thus yield. Land use analysis and increasing sediment load trends indicate that erosion within the catchment has increased over the last 10–20 years.     

Temporal variation of river flow renewability in the middle Yellow River and the influencing factors

In the past 30 years, the measured annual river flow of the Yellow River has declined significantly. After adding the diverted water back to get the ‘natural’ annual river flow, the tendency of decrease can still be seen. This indicates that the river flow renewability of the Yellow River has changed. The river flow renewability is indexed as the ratio of annual ‘natural’ river flow to annual precipitation over a river drainage basin, where the ‘natural’ river flow is the measured annual river flow plus the annual ‘net’ water diversion from the river. By using this index, based on the data from the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen stations on the middle Yellow River, a study has been made of the river flow renewability of the Yellow River in the changing environment of the past 50 years. The river flow renewability index (I_rr) in the drainage area between Hekouzhen and Longmen in the middle Yellow River basin has been found to decline significantly with time. In the meantime, annual precipitation decreased, annual air temperature increased, but the area of water and soil conservation measures has been increased. It has been found that I_rr is positively correlated with the areal averaged annual precipitation, but negatively correlated with annual air temperature. There is close, negative correlation between I_rr and the area of water and soil conservation measures including land terracing, tree and grass planting and checkdam building, implying that water and soil conservation measures have reduced the river flow renewability. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of conceptual semi-distributed hydrological models and estimation of their parameters with the aid of GIS

Abstract

Conceptual semi-distributed hydrological models are developed for a limited consideration of spatial heterogeneity of hydrological characteristics within a river basin. This heterogeneity can be described by area distribution functions of hydrological characteristics which can be estimated in a most effective way by a Geographical Information System (GIS). It is shown how the application of a GIS can support the development and the calibration of a conceptual hydrological model. GIS information is used to establish the criteria for sub-division of the river basin and for estimation of model structures (especially for further horizontal divisions of each basin into more homogeneous parts). That information is also used for estimation of basin characteristics and their differences between sub-basins as a support for parameter calibration by optimization. The methodology presented can be used for the development of a model structure on an objective basis and for model calibration which considers the physical explanation of model parameters. The proposed method was successfully applied to a river basin within the Mosel basin (Germany).     

Space–time rainfall variability in the Paute basin,Ecuadorian Andes

Despite the importance of mountain ranges as water providers, knowledge of their climate variability is still limited, mostly due to a combination of data scarcity and heterogeneous orography. The tropical Andes share many of the main features of mountain ranges in general, and are subject to several climatic influences that have an effect on rainfall variability. Although studies have addressed the large-scale variation, the basin scale has received little attention. Thus, the purpose of this study was to obtain a better understanding of rainfall variability in the tropical Andes at the basin scal, utilizing the Paute River basin of southern Ecuador as a case study. Analysis of 23 rainfall stations revealed a high spatial variability in terms of: (i) large variations of mean annual precipitation in the range 660–3400 mm; (ii) the presence of a non-monotonic relation between annual precipitation and elevation; and (iii) the existence of four, sometimes contrasting, rainfall regimes. Data from seven stations for the period 1964–1998 was used to study seasonality and trends in annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation. Seasonality is less pronounced at higher elevations, confirming that in the páramo region, the main water source for Andean basins, rainfall is well distributed year round. Additionally, during the period of record, no station has experienced extreme concentrations of annual rainfall during the wet season, which supports the concept of mountains as reliable water providers. Although no regional or basin-wide trends are found for annual precipitation, positive (negative) trends during the wet (dry) season found at four stations raises the likelihood of both water shortages and the risk of precipitation-triggered disasters. The study demonstrates how variable the precipitation patterns of the Andean mountain range are, and illustrates the need for improved monitoring. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigation of the temporal relation of remotely sensed coastal water quality with GIS modelled upstream soil erosion

Hydrological processes at the river basin influence the quality of downstream water bodies by controlling the loads of nutrients and suspended solids. Although their monitoring is important for social, economic and environmental reasons, in‐situ measurements are too expensive and thus too sparse to describe their relations. The aim of this study is to investigate the temporal relations of soil erosion in the upstream part of river basins with water quality characteristics in the downstream coastal zone, using satellite remote sensing and GIS modelling. Data from satellite missions of MODIS, SRTM and TRMM were used to describe the soil erosion factors of the Universal Soil Loss Equation in three river basins, and MERIS satellite data was used to estimate chlorophyll‐a and total suspended matter concentrations in the coastal zone of northwest Aegean Sea in Greece, where the rivers discharge. The resulting time series showed an average correlation of upstream rainfall with downstream water quality, which increased when soil erosion was introduced. Higher correlations were observed with the use of a time lag, revealing a variable delay between the three test sites. Lower correlation coefficients were observed for chlorophyll‐a, due to the sensitivity of algae to environmental conditions. The use of free of charge satellite data and easy to operate GIS models renders the findings of this work useful for coastal zone management bodies, in order to help increase aquaculture productivity, predict algal blooms and predict siltation of ports. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unraveling complex hydrogeological processes in Andean basins in south‐central Chile: An integrated assessment to understand hydrological dissimilarity

Groundwater storage, drainage, and interbasin water exchange are common hydrological processes but often difficult to quantify due to a lack of local observations. We present a study of three volcanic mountainous watersheds located in south‐central Chile (~36.9 ° S) in the Chillán volcanic complex (Chillán, Renegado, and Diguillín river basins). These are neighboring basins that are similar with respect to the metrics normally available for characterization everywhere (e.g., precipitation, temperature, and land cover). In a hydrological sense, similar (proportional) behavior would be expected if these catchments would be characterized with this general information. However, these watersheds show dissimilar behavior when analyzed in detail. The surface water balance does not fit for any of these watersheds individually; however, the water balance of the whole system can be explained by likely interbasin water exchanges. The Renegado river basin has an average annual runoff per unit of area on the order of 60–65% less than those of the Diguillín and Chillán rivers, which is contradictory to the hydrological similarity among the basins. To understand the main processes that control streamflow generation, two analyses were performed: (a) basin metrics (land cover, geologic, topographic, and climatological maps) and hydro‐meteorological data analyses and (b) a water balance model approach. The analyses contribute to a plausible explanation for the hydrogeological processes in the system. The soils, topography, and geology of the Chillán–Renegado–Diguillín system favor the infiltration and groundwater movements from the Renegado river basin, mainly to the neighboring Diguillín basin. The interbasin water exchanges affect hydrological similarity and explain the differences observed in the hydrological processes of these three apparently similar volcanic basins. The results highlight the complexity of hydrological processes in volcanic mountainous systems and suggest that a simple watershed classification approach based on widely available data is insufficient. Simple local analyses such as specific flow analysis with a review of the geology and morphology can contribute to a better understanding of the hydrology of volcanic mountainous areas.     

A joint analysis of river runoff and meteorological forcing in the Karakoram,upper Indus Basin

Satellite‐geodetic altimetry investigations in the Karakoram have indicated slight mass gain or loss of the glaciers during the early part of 21st century. Equivalent discharge in the upper Indus Basin due to these mass changes has been estimated at 5 to 10% of mean annual flow. However, satellite altimetry and geodetic glacier mass estimates in the extreme topography of the Karakoram have not yet been counter‐validated by hydrological analysis. Therefore, we present a first cross validation of three to five decades of river flow data from the three major watersheds in the Karakoram, with matching series of monthly precipitation, temperature, and evaporation provided by six atmospheric reanalysis products for 1979–2014. The analyses suggest that in most cases river flows have been increasing steadily from the end of the 1960s and 1970s to the middle of the 1990s and have stabilized or are in decline since then. Hunza watershed in Karakoram West shows consistently declining flows over the first half of the analysis period and stable flows during the second half for most of the summer melting season, suggesting mass accumulation. Rising river flows in the Shyok and Shigar watersheds, followed by stabilizing or slightly declining flows from 1995 onward, can be explained by consistently increasing precipitation during the first half of the analysis period, and successive stabilization or minor decline thereof. Flow data do not necessarily suggest considerable loss or gain of glacial mass in the Karakoram during the late 90s and early 2000s as suggested by satellite‐based altimetry studies.     

The Manso Glacier drainage system in the northern Patagonian Andes: an overview of its main hydrological characteristics

The Manso Glacier (~41°S, 72°W), in the northern Patagonian Andes of Argentina, is a regenerated glacier that, like many other glaciers in the region and elsewhere, has been showing a significant retreat. Glacial melt water feeds the Manso Superior River, which, before crossing the Andes to reach a Pacific outfall, flows through the Mascardi (a deep, oligotrophic and monomictic lake) and significantly smaller Hess and Steffen lakes. Harmonic analysis of Mascardi's lake level series suggests that the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation signal has been strong during the 1985–1995 decade but has grown weaker during the initial decade of the 21st century. Hydrological trend analyses applied in data recorded in the uppermost reaches show a monthly and annual decreasing trend in the Manso Superior River discharge series and Mascardi's lake level, which are connected with both, decreasing melt water discharge and (austral) wintertime atmospheric precipitation. Downstream, the decreasing signal initially looses statistical significance and then, when flowing through Steffen Lake, reverses the lake level trend that becomes significantly positive. This suggests that, on its way to the Pacific Ocean, the Manso River receives abundant Andean snow melt water and atmospheric precipitation, which are sufficient to obliterate the negative trend recorded in the uppermost reaches. The reason for this local phenomenon is that the Manso is an antecedent river (aka superposed stream), and hence, the valley crossing the Andes allows the incursion of Pacific humidity that modifies the hydrological regime several hundred kilometres inland. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

River flow regime and snow cover of the Pamir Alay (Central Asia) in a changing climate

Abstract

The Vakhsh and Pyandj rivers, main tributaries of the Amu Darya River in the mountainous region of the Pamir Alay, play an important role in the water resources of the Aral Sea basin (Central Asia). In this region, the glaciers and snow cover significantly influence the water cycle and flow regime, which could be strongly modified by climate change. The present study, part of a project funded by the European Commission, analyses the hydrological situation in six benchmark basins covering areas of between 1800 and 8400 km², essentially located in Tajikistan, with a variety of topographical situations, precipitation amounts and glacierized areas. Four types of parameter are discussed: temperature, glaciation, snow cover and river flows. The study is based mainly on a long-time series that ended in the 1990s (with the collapse of the Soviet Union) and on field observations and data collection. In addition, a short, more recent period (May 2000 to May 2002) was examined to better understand the role of snow cover, using scarce monitored data and satellite information. The results confirm the overall homogeneous trend of temperature increase in the mountain range and its impacts on the surface water regime. Concerning the snow cover, significant differences are noted in the location, elevation, orientation and morphology of snow cover in the respective basins. The changes in the river flow regime are regulated by the combination of the snow cover dynamics and the increasing trend of the air temperature.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Prediction of daily rainfall state in a river basin using statistical downscaling from GCM output

Conventional statistical downscaling techniques for prediction of multi-site rainfall in a river basin fail to capture the correlation between multiple sites and thus are inadequate to model the variability of rainfall. The present study addresses this problem through representation of the pattern of multi-site rainfall using rainfall state in a river basin. A model based on K-means clustering technique coupled with a supervised data classification technique, namely Classification And Regression Tree (CART), is used for generation of rainfall states from large-scale atmospheric variables in a river basin. The K-means clustering is used to derive the daily rainfall state from the historical daily multi-site rainfall data. The optimum number of clusters in the observed rainfall data is obtained after application of various cluster validity measures to the clustered data. The CART model is then trained to establish relationship between the daily rainfall state of the river basin and the standardized, dimensionally-reduced National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis climatic data set. The relationship thus developed is applied to the General Circulation Model (GCM)-simulated, standardized, bias free large-scale climate variables for prediction of rainfall states in future. Comparisons of the number of days falling under different rainfall states for the observed period and the future give the change expected in the river basin due to global warming. The methodology is tested for the Mahanadi river basin in India.     

Modelling suspended sediment flow in arid upland basins

Abstract

A conceptual basin model of the instantaneous unit sediment graph was developed for sediment graph prediction from arid upland basins by routing mobilized sediments through a series of linear reservoirs. The sediment graphs generated by convolution of the instantaneous unit sediment graph compared reasonably well with the observed ones for four representative arid upland sub-basins in the Luni basin, India. The mobilized sediment during a storm was related to effective precipitation and the parameters of the model were estimated from observed events. The model can be applied to ungauged flow events through parameterization.