Field and numerical investigations on triggering mechanism in typical rainfall-induced shallow landslides: a case study in the Ren River catchment,China

Natural Hazards - A combined field hydrological monitoring and hydro-mechanical numerical investigation into the triggering mechanism in rainfall-induced shallow landslides was proposed and carried...     

Large reactivated landslides in weak rock masses: a case study from the Northern Apennines (Italy)

This case study paper is about a large rotational rock and earth slide—earth flow located in the Secchia River Valley, in the Northern Apennines of Italy, that has displayed multiple reactivation phases between 2002 and 2004. The main geological constraints of the mass movement are related to the overlap of flysch rock masses over clayey complexes that allows rock slides to take place in the source area. The disarrangement and weathering of rock masses following slope movements causes large amount of fine-grained debris to be accumulated on the slope and mobilised by earth sliding and flowing. Analysis of rainfall data at the onset of reactivation events has proved that they occurred after periods with cumulated values higher than the averages of the last 30 years. The quantification of the morphological modifications induced by these reactivations has been made possible by comparing pre- and post-event digital elevation models. Depletion and accumulation has been in the range of 30 m in different parts of the slope. In particular, an advancement of the landslide toe of more than 400 m, which caused a 30-m thick landslide tip to deposit, has been clearly seen. Monitoring data regarding subsurface movements and surface tension crack widening (tension cracks so large as to be properly described at trenches) has shown that sliding surfaces as deep as 43 m exist in the upper part of the landslide, while the accumulation lobe has moved by sliding and flowing over surfaces as deep as some 10 m. Velocities of cm/day have been recorded in the deep surfaces and in widening trenches of the source area, while the advancement of the accumulation lobe has been estimated as having velocities of up to 10 m/day. Groundwater in the landslide body has been observed at depths of 5–15 m in the upper areas, while it is estimated as being at the ground level in the toe. On this basis, it is concluded that the landslide still has a high potential for further development, both in the upper landslide zone and in the toe area.     

Shallow landslides triggered by rainfalls: modeling of some case histories in the Reggiano Apennine (Emilia Romagna Region, Northern Italy)

On April 10–11, 2005, the Emilia Romagna Apennine was affected by an intense rainfall event that triggered dozens of soil slips in the Province of Reggio Emilia. These shallow landslides occurred mainly on slopes of cultivated lands, often blocking roads, causing damages to crops and economic loss. Based on the analysis of an inventory of aerial photographs, it was possible to locate 45 sites where soil slips have occurred. In this paper, the area of study is described from a geological and climatic point of view. The authors analyze both the predisposing factors, related to the morphology of the territory, and the phenomena triggering factors, related to the rain trend. Once the geometrical features and characteristics of the soil slopes were available, a physically based triggering model, recently developed by the authors, was locally applied at each site. The model, which is based on the limit equilibrium method and on the hypothesis of infinite slope, is briefly described. It assumes a partial saturation condition of the soil and provides the safety factor of each slope as a function of time-variable rainfall intensity. The choice of the input parameters of the model is explained in detail. It is underlined, in particular, how the only parameter that has been determined through a procedure of back analysis, i.e., the discharge capability, is comparable to the typical permeability values obtained through field measurements by other authors, for similar kinds of soils and conditions. In this article, the results of the application of our model to the study areas, within a three-year time frame, are presented. Furthermore, on the basis of the analysis carried out, some observations on the operating mode of the model are carried out and its ability to predict a phenomenon triggering is evaluated.     

Estimation of rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides for an operational warning system implementation

The Piemonte regional warning system service, managed by the Environmental Protection Agency of Piemonte (“ARPA Piemonte” as official Italian acronym), is based on an advanced meteo-hydrological automatic monitoring system, and it is integrated with forecasting activities of severe weather-related natural hazards. At present, a meteo-hydrological chain is operated to provide flood forecasting on the main river pattern. The development of a forecasting tool for shallow landslides triggered by heavy rainfall is presented. Due to the difficulties in modelling shallow landslides triggering in a large and complex area like the Piemonte region, an empirical model is developed on the basis of the correlation between rainfall and previous landslides in historical documents. The research focuses on establishing rainfall thresholds for landslides triggering, differentiating the critical rainfall values through a geological characterisation of the different territories. The period from 1990 to 2002 is considered. A total number of 160 landslides with hourly information and time of triggering are used to calibrate the system. As a first outcome, two different zones have been identified: (1) zones in alpine environments, principally characterised by a bedrock composed of metamorphic rocks, igneous rocks, dolostones or limestones that require high values of critical rainfall and (2) zones in hilly environments, principally characterised by sedimentary bedrock that require low values of critical rainfall. Verification has been performed on a total number of 429 landslides with known date of occurrence. The results show a good agreement with the model with no missed alarms and a very low number of false alarms, thus suggesting an effective operational implementation.     

Rainfall infiltration: infinite slope model for landslides triggering by rainstorm

Shallow slope failure due to heavy rainfall during rainstorm and typhoon is common in mountain areas. Among the models used for analyzing the slope stability, the rainwater infiltration model integrated with slope stability model can be an effective way to evaluate the stability of slopes during rainstorm. This paper will propose an integrated Green–Ampt infiltration model and infinite slope stability model for the analysis of shallow type slope failure. To verify the suitability of the proposed model, seven landslide cases occurred in Italy and Hong Kong are adopted in this paper. The results indicate that the proposed model can be used to distinguish failed and not-yet failed slopes. In addition, the proposed model can be used as the first approximation for estimating the occurrence time of a rainfall-induced shallow landslide and its depth of sliding.     

Effects of climate change on shallow landslides in a small coastal catchment in southern Italy

In different areas of the world, shallow landslides represent a remarkable hazard inducing fatalities and economic damages. Then, the evaluation about potential variation in frequency of such hazard under the effect of climate changes should be a priority for defining reliable adaptation measurements. Unfortunately, current performances of climate models on sub-daily scales, relevant for heavy rainfall events triggering shallow landslides, are not reliable enough to be used directly for performing slope stability analysis. In an attempt to overcome the constrains by gap in time resolution between climate and hazard models, the paper presents an integrated suitable approach for estimating future variations in shallow landslide hazard and managing the uncertainties associated with climate and sub-daily downscaling models. The approach is tested on a small basin on Amalfi coast (southern Italy). Basing on available basin scale critical rainfall thresholds, the paper outlines how the projected changes in precipitation patterns could affect local slope stability magnitude scenarios with different relevances as effect of investigated time horizon and concentration scenario. The paper concludes with qualitative evaluations on the future effectiveness of the local operative warning system in a climate change framework.     

Updating EWS rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides

In this paper, the updating of rainfall thresholds for landslide early warning systems (EWSs) is presented. Rainfall thresholds are widely used in regional-scale landslide EWSs, but the efficiency of those systems can decrease during the time, so a periodically updating should be required to keep their functionality. The updating of 12 of the 25 thresholds used in the EWS of Tuscany region (central Italy) is presented, and a comparison between performances of new and previous thresholds has been made to highlight the need of their periodical update. The updating has been carried out by collecting ca. 1200 new landslide reports (from 2010 to March 2013) and their respective rainfall data, collected by 332 rain gauges. The comparison has been made by the use of several statistical indexes and showed a marked increasing in the performances of the new thresholds with respect to previous ones.     

Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy

We model the rainfall-induced initiation of shallow landslides over a broad region using a deterministic approach, the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-stability (TRIGRS) model that couples an infinite-slope stability analysis with a one-dimensional analytical solution for transient pore pressure response to rainfall infiltration. This model permits the evaluation of regional shallow landslide susceptibility in a Geographic Information System framework, and we use it to analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides in an area in the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy. As shown on a landslide inventory map produced by the Italian National Research Council, the area has been affected in the past by shallow landslides, many of which have transformed into debris flows. Input data for the TRIGRS model include time-varying rainfall, topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water table depth, and material strength and hydraulic properties. Because of a paucity of input data, we focus on parametric analyses to calibrate and test the model and show the effect of variation in material properties and initial water table conditions on the distribution of simulated instability in the study area in response to realistic rainfall. Comparing the results with the shallow landslide inventory map, we find more than 80% agreement between predicted shallow landslide susceptibility and the inventory, despite the paucity of input data.     

降雨诱发浅层滑坡稳定性的计算模型研究

我国是一个滑坡灾害频发的国家,众多事实表明：降雨是影响边坡稳定性,导致边坡失稳的最主要和最普遍的环境因素,是浅层滑坡的触发因素。为了更好地对降雨诱发浅层滑坡进行研究,采用非饱和土VG模型与改进的Green-Ampt入渗模型对Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型进行改进,并结合无限边坡提出了一个降雨诱发浅层滑坡的简化计算模型。与以往提出的简化计算模型相比,该模型既考虑了坡面倾斜的影响,又考虑了非饱和土的特性,并可用于两种降雨形式下的边坡浅层稳定性估算,具有更广的应用范围。通过与有限元得到的结果进行比较可得：在不同降雨条件下,该计算模型得到的各项结果与数值解是接近的,安全系数计算结果是偏于安全的,因此,可将该计算模型用于降雨诱发浅层滑坡的近似估算;该计算模型公式简单,便于计算,计算效率较高。     

Assessment of shallow landslides from Hurricane Mitch in central America using a physically based model

Shallow landslides induced by heavy rainfall events represent one of the most disastrous hazards in mountainous regions because of their high frequency and rapid mobility. Recent advancements in the availability and accessibility of remote sensing data, including topography, land cover and precipitation products, allow landslide hazard assessment to be considered at larger spatial scales. A theoretical framework for a landslide forecasting system was prototyped in this study using several remotely sensed and surface parameters. The applied physical model SLope-Infiltration-Distributed Equilibrium (SLIDE) takes into account some simplified hypotheses on water infiltration and defines a direct relation between factor of safety and the rainfall depth on an infinite slope. This prototype model is applied to a case study in Honduras during Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Two study areas were selected where a high density of shallow landslides occurred, covering approximately 1,200 km². The results were quantitatively evaluated using landslide inventory data compiled by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) following Hurricane Mitch’s landfall. The agreement between the SLIDE modeling results and landslide observations demonstrates good predictive skill and suggests that this framework could serve as a potential tool for the future early landslide warning systems. Results show that within the two study areas, the values of rates of successful estimation of slope failure locations reached as high as 78 and 75%, while the error indices were 35 and 49%. Despite positive model performance, the SLIDE model is limited by several assumptions including using general parameter calibration rather than in situ tests and neglecting geologic information. Advantages and limitations of this physically based model are discussed with respect to future applications of landslide assessment and prediction over large scales.     

The extent and significance of mass-movements in Eastern Africa: case studies of some major landslides in Uganda and Kenya

The East African region has experienced major landslides in recent years. These landslides have caused many fatalities and injuries, loss of many hectares of productive farmlands and destruction to infrastructure such as roads, railways and bridges. The warm and wet climate of the landslide-prone regions causes rapid weathering and produces a regolith weaker than the underlying rock with an interface between the two layers. This interface serves as the most common plane along which landslides are initiated once it becomes saturated. Landslides in the region are associated with steep topography, human activities such as deforestation, overgrazing, and unplanned farming on steep slopes and are induced by earthquakes and high intensity of rainfall. The landslide-prone areas are agriculturally very productive and the inhabitants depend on agriculture for their livelihood. The areas also contribute substantially to the national food reserve. The landslides are therefore a burden to the economies of the individual farmers and national governments of the region.     

Spatially distributed rainfall thresholds for the initiation of shallow landslides

The evaluation of the combined influence of rainfall patterns (in terms of mean intensity and duration) and the geomorphological and mechanical characteristics of hillslopes on their stability conditions is a major goal in the assessment of the shallow landslide triggering processes. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) represent an important tool to develop models that combine hydrological and geomechanical analyses for the evaluation of slope stability, as they allow to combine information concerning rainfall characteristics with topographic and mechanical properties of the slopes over wide areas. In this paper, a GIS-based code is developed to determine physically based intensity/duration rainfall thresholds at the local scale. Given the rainfall duration and the local geometric, hydrological and mechanical characteristics of the slopes, the code evaluates the spatial distribution of the minimum rainfall intensity that triggers shallow landslides and debris flows over a given area. The key feature of the code is the capability of evaluating the time t _p required to reach the peak pore pressure head on the failure surface and computing the corresponding critical intensity/duration thresholds based on post-event peak pore pressures. The reliability of the model is tested using a set of one-dimensional analyses, comparing the physically based thresholds obtained for three different slopes with some empirical rainfall thresholds. In a log–log scale, the thresholds provided by the model decrease linearly with increased rainfall duration and they are bracketed by the empirical thresholds considered. Finally, an example of application to a study area of the Umbria region in central Italy is presented, describing the capability of the model of providing site-specific thresholds for different rainfall scenarios.     

窑洞开挖诱发浅层黄土滑坡的变形机理模拟

由废弃窑洞倒塌引发的黄土边坡失稳严重威胁了黄土高原地区居民的生命财产安全。通过野外调查,选取陕西省延安市三亩台滑坡为典型案例,基于室内试验分析了窑洞废弃、依窑建房等工况下黄土含水量和土体强度的变化规律,运用数值模拟研究了窑洞废弃、依窑建房过程中最危险滑面上的应力和强度变化趋势。从土体应力-强度关系角度揭示了废弃窑洞诱发黄土边坡变形破坏机理。研究表明,窑洞废弃和依窑建房增大了土体含水量,降低了土体的抗剪强度,致使坡体下部土体剪应力逐渐接近其抗剪强度,边坡的稳定性随之降低,最终窑洞坍塌引发滑坡。     

Effects of coupled hydro-mechanical model considering dual-phase fluid flow on potential for shallow landslides at a regional scale

Natural Hazards - A total of 36 rainfall-induced shallow landslides occurred on July 26 and 27, 2011, on Halmidang Mountain, Gyeonggi Province, South Korea. To precisely analyze these shallow...     

Hydrological triggering conditions of landslides in varved clays in the French Alps

In this paper the meteorological and hydrological conditions are analyzed which trigger shallow and deeper landslides in glacio-lacustrine deposits (varved or laminated clays) in the French Alps. The hydrological system of these landslides consists of a colluvial cover which supplies water into the fissures of the underlying varved clays. From these fissures water can infiltrate more or less horizontally into the silt layers of the varved clays. A combined reservoirs model was used to simulate the water fluctuations in the colluvial cover and the fissures. Both the water level in the fissures and the residence time of water in the fissures are mainly controlled by the amount of water storage in the colluvial cover. Simulations over the last 25 years show that almost each year the fissures are completely filled with water for several months a year.

Infiltration experiments in the field show that infiltration into the varved clays occurs mainly by horizontal infiltration into the silt laminae. Calculated infiltration rates from these fissures into the silt layers show that the mean yearly residence time of water in the fissures is not sufficient to fully saturate the clay mass each year. It is therefore concluded that the triggering of the landslide movements is mainly controlled by the development of positive pore water pressures in the fissure system and that the rise of pore water pressures induced by the matrix system of the varved clays only plays a minor role. The calculations also show that drainage of the colluvial cover is a very efficient measure to stabilize the deeper landslides.     

Surface displacements of two landslides evaluated by GPS and inclinometer systems: a case study in Southern Apennines, Italy

This paper reports experimental data on surface and deep displacements evaluated by means of GPS stations and inclinometers in two rototranslational deep landslides in a clayey slope of the Italian Southern Apennines. The displacements of the landslides cause continuous damage to buildings and infrastructures. To study these phenomena and control their effects, the local public administration provided financial support for a geotechnical investigation that started in 2004. Laboratory tests, in situ pore pressure and inclinometer measurements were carried out. In July 2006, systems of fixed-in-place inclinometer probes with continuous data acquisition were installed in two of the eleven guide casings, in correspondence to the slip surfaces detected by previous periodical measurements. In the meanwhile, a GPS network was installed, consisting in six permanent stations and ten non-permanent ones. Among the latter, five were installed on the top of five inclinometer casings. The experimental results show that, in the case under study, the surface displacements evaluated by means of the GPS stations are consistent with the surface displacements evaluated by means of the inclinometer measurements. This implies mutual data validation, availability of considerable amount of continuous data, as well as monitoring continuity when, for some reason, one of the instruments goes out of use.     

Impact of event landslides on road networks: a statistical analysis of two Italian case studies

Despite abundant information on landslides, and on landslide hazard and risk, in Italy, little is known on the direct impact of event landslides on road networks and on the related economic costs. We investigated the physical and economic damage caused by two rainfall-induced landslide events in Central and Southern Italy, to obtain road restoration cost statistics. Using a GIS-based method, we exploited road maps and landslide event inventory maps to compute different metrics that quantify the impact of the landslide events on the natural landscape and on the road networks, by road type. The maps were used with cost data obtained from multiple sources, including local authorities, and specific legislation, to evaluate statistically the unit cost per metre of damaged road and the unit cost per square metre of damaging landslide, separately for main and secondary roads. The obtained unit costs showed large variations which we attribute to the different road types in the two study areas and to the different abundance of landslides. Our work confirms the long-standing conundrum of obtaining accurate landslide damage data and outlines the need for reliable, standardized methods to evaluate landslide damage and associated restoration costs that regional and local administrations can use rapidly in the aftermath of a landslide event. We conclude recommending that common standardized procedures to collect landslide cost data following each landslide event are established, in Italy and elsewhere. This will allow for more accurate and reliable evaluations of the economic costs of landslide events.     

Rainfall as a trigger of shallow mass movements. A case study in the Dolomites, Italy

 The article presents results of regional analysis on a historical basis correlating the occurrence of shallow mass movements and disruptive events in time with precipitation trends. For the latter, different time-spans have been considered in an attempt to find the most typical ones which might have triggered landslides. Research was carried out in the 850 km² wide basin of the River Cordevole in the Dolomites (NE Italy). Data concerning slope movements and floods, which have affected the area since the last century, were collected. Events which took place after 1920 have been correlated with the significant pluviometric events recorded. In spite of the regionally high variability of both geological conditions and spatial distribution of precipitation, three types of typical pluviometric trends related to an effective rainfall period of 15 days and to a peak rainfall of 24–48 h preceding the onset of the movements were identified. Received: 1 November 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)

Researchers have long attempted to determine the amount of rainfall needed to trigger slope failures, yet relatively little progress has been reported on the effects of climate change on landslide initiation. Indeed, some relationships between landslides and climate change have been highlighted, but sign and magnitude of this correlation remain uncertain and influenced by the spatial and temporal horizon considered. This work makes use of statistically adjusted high-resolution regional climate model simulations, to study the expected changes of landslides frequency in the eastern Esino river basin (Central Italy). Simulated rainfall was used in comparison with rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence derived by two observation-based statistical models (1) the cumulative event rainfall–rainfall duration model, and (2) the Bayesian probabilistic model. Results show an overall increase in projected landslide occurrence over the twenty-first century. This is especially confirmed in the high-emission scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5, where according to the first model, the events above rainfall thresholds frequency shift from ~?0.025 to ~?0.05 in the mountainous sector of the study area. Moreover, Bayesian analysis revealed the possible occurrence of landslide-triggering rainfall with a magnitude never occurred over the historical period. Landslides frequency change signal presents also considerable seasonal patterns, with summer displaying the steepest positive trend coupled to the highest inter-model spread. The methodological chain here proposed aims at representing a flexible tool for future landslide-hazard assessment, applicable over different areas and time horizons (e.g., short-term climate projections or seasonal forecasts).