湖南对全球变暖的区域响应

本文通过长沙近百年和湖南区域近百站40a来的气象资料统计,分析了在全球气候变暖条件下湖南气候变化事实,揭示了湖南洪水灾害加剧的情况,并提出了应加以重视的问题.     

Attribution of long-term changes in peak river flows in Great Britain

ABSTRACT

We investigate the evidence for changes in the magnitude of peak river flows in Great Britain. We focus on a set of 117 near-natural “benchmark” catchments to detect trends not driven by land use and other human impacts, and aim to attribute trends in peak river flows to some climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) index. We propose modelling all stations together in a Bayesian multilevel framework to be better able to detect any signal that is present in the data by pooling information across several stations. This approach leads to the detection of a clear countrywide time trend. Additionally, in a univariate approach, both the EA and NAO indices appear to have a considerable association with peak river flows. When a multivariate approach is taken to unmask the collinearity between climate indices and time, the association between NAO and peak flows disappears, while the association with EA remains clear. This demonstrates the usefulness of a multivariate and multilevel approach when it comes to accurately attributing trends in peak river flows.     

Potential Changes in Aquatic Biota in the Period of Global Climate Warming

The results of investigations of water bodies subjected to constant many-year thermal pollution are proposed to use for the prediction of the consequences of climate warming. General tendencies in changes in the aquatic biota and the distribution of aquatic organisms under the effect of thermal pollution are established by analyzing the materials collected at different cooling ponds of nuclear and thermal power stations.     

The effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge in Great Britain

The predicted increase in mean global temperature due to climate change is expected to affect water availability and, in turn, cause both environmental and societal impacts. To understand the potential impact of climate change on future sustainable water resources, this paper outlines a methodology to quantify the effects of climate change on potential groundwater recharge (or hydrological excess water) for three locations in the north and south of Great Britain. Using results from a stochastic weather generator, actual evapotranspiration and potential groundwater recharge time‐series for the historic baseline 1961–1990 and for a future ‘high’ greenhouse gas emissions scenario for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s time periods were simulated for Coltishall in East Anglia, Gatwick in southeast England and Paisley in west Scotland. Under the ‘high’ gas emissions scenario, results showed a decrease of 20% in potential groundwater recharge for Coltishall, 40% for Gatwick and 7% for Paisley by the end of this century. The persistence of dry periods is shown to increase for the three sites during the 2050s and 2080s. Gatwick presents the driest conditions, Coltishall the largest variability of wet and dry periods and Paisley little variability. For Paisley, the main effect of climate change is evident during the dry season (April–September), when the potential amount of hydrological excess water decreases by 88% during the 2080s. Overall, it is concluded that future climate may present a decrease in potential groundwater recharge that will increase stress on local and regional groundwater resources that are already under ecosystem and water supply pressures. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Regime of Water and Chemical Runoff in the Upper Volga Basin under Global Warming

Water Resources - The present-day conditions of the formation and distribution of the water resources and chemistry under global warming during the recent decades have been considered. The...     

Background Factors of Global Climate Warming in the Coastal Zone of the Black Sea

Mechanisms of the positive changes in the heat budget of the active layer when its surface is cooling down and at its current eustasy are proposed. The proposed mechanisms are based on the analysis of long series of observations of the Black Sea temperature and level. The basic factors determining the vulnerability of the coastal infrastructure are established and a simplified scheme for assessing the possible damage is given. The development of the background factors in the near future is predicted and the necessity for the Black Sea countries to implement individual redemption plans is substantiated.     

The Global Warming Debate: A Review of the State of Science

A review of the present status of the global warming science is presented in this paper. The term global warming is now popularly used to refer to the recent reported increase in the mean surface temperature of the earth; this increase being attributed to increasing human activity and in particular to the increased concentration of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) in the atmosphere. Since the mid to late 1980s there has been an intense and often emotional debate on this topic. The various climate change reports (1996, 2001) prepared by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), have provided the scientific framework that ultimately led to the Kyoto protocol on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (particularly carbon dioxide) due to the burning of fossil fuels. Numerous peer-reviewed studies reported in recent literature have attempted to verify several of the projections on climate change that have been detailed by the IPCC reports.The global warming debate as presented by the media usually focuses on the increasing mean temperature of the earth, associated extreme weather events and future climate projections of increasing frequency of extreme weather events worldwide. In reality, the climate change issue is considerably more complex than an increase in the earth’s mean temperature and in extreme weather events. Several recent studies have questioned many of the projections of climate change made by the IPCC reports and at present there is an emerging dissenting view of the global warming science which is at odds with the IPCC view of the cause and consequence of global warming. Our review suggests that the dissenting view offered by the skeptics or opponents of global warming appears substantially more credible than the supporting view put forth by the proponents of global warming. Further, the projections of future climate change over the next fifty to one hundred years is based on insufficiently verified climate models and are therefore not considered reliable at this point in time.     

全球浅源巨大地震序列统计特征

系统研究了1976年以来全球58次M_W≥7.8浅源地震序列的统计特征。结果显示:(1)在58次巨大地震中,板间地震45次,板内地震13次,板内地震强度低于板间地震。(2)74.1%的板间地震为逆断层错动,61.5%的板内地震为走滑型错动。(3)58次地震序列中,82.8%为主-余型,17.2%为多震型;与5级以上地震序列不同,巨大地震没有孤立型,其余震比较活跃;板内地震中,多震型占7.7%,而板间地震中多震型占20%。(4)对于主-余型序列,75%的主震与最大余震的震级差为1.0～2.0级;震级差与主震震源错动类型有关,走滑型的震级差明显大于逆冲型;68%的最大余震发生在主震后3天内,其次为10天左右与1个月左右; 49%的D_(max-aft)(最大余震震中与主震震中间的距离)不超过余震区长轴的1/3,31%的D_(max-aft)为余震区尺度的1/3～1/2;最大余震的发生时间、最大余震震中与主震震中间的距离同主震断层错动类型间的关系不明显。(5)应用ETAS模型计算了46个序列参数后发现,b值、p值和a值均呈Beta分布,b值平均为1.164±0.211,p值平均为1.559±0.412,a值平均为1.673±0.911; p值和a值分布分散;对于不同的序列类型、震源错动类型及板内、板间地震,b值差异不显著;逆冲型序列p值明显大于走滑型和正断层型;板间地震序列a值明显小于板内地震;逆冲型序列a值明显小于走滑型和正断层型;这表明,与板内地震相比,板间地震具有较强的"余震激发余震"的能力;逆冲型破裂虽然会导致序列衰减较快,但触发次级余震的能力相对较强。(6)逆冲型巨大地震余震区长轴L的对数与主震震级M_W间的拟合关系式为lg L=(-1.399±0.306)+(0.470±0.037) M_W。     

全球变暖导致洪水风险增加——长江洪水前景分析

近期在很多地方洪水越来越频繁且破坏性更大.20世纪90年代以来全球大洪水造成社会经济财产巨大损失,30次大洪水每次总损失额均超过10×10⁸美元.1990-1998年的9a时间的大洪水爆发的次数比1950-1985年期间Ma大洪水次数还要多.近年来中国大陆也遭受了若干重大洪水灾害(包括1996和1998年两次大的财产损失).与气候变率和变化相关的洪水灾害和易爆发程度的显著增加,这是当前最紧迫的问题.随着气温升高大气中持水量也增加,因此大规模强度的降水的可能性也增大.己观测到高而集中的大降水事件而且这种趋势在未来气候变暖条件下可能增加,大降水事件的增加是洪灾增加的必然条件.当然也有一些其它的非气象因素加剧洪灾的发生,比如土地利用变化(森林砍伐、城市化)导致土壤持水能力下降,径流系数增加;此外,人类占据了洪泛区,可能导致洪水损失增大.另外物质财富在洪泛区的积聚也导致了洪灾损失增加.毫无疑问,由于人类活动和气候的共同作用,未来洪水风险在很多地方可能增加.洪水易爆发程度被认为是暴露系数和调节能力的函数,而且在许多地方所有这些变量都可能增加.而随着暴露系数比人类调节能力增加快,因此洪水易爆发程度增大.然而,要完全从径流变化中区分气候因素导致的强烈自然变率还是直接的人为环境变化是很困难的.由于使用不同的假定情景和不同的气候模型,得到的未来环境的预测结果差异也很大.IPCC第三次评估报告中广泛讨论了气候变化与洪水之间的关系.IPCC第三次评估报告警告说,在东亚季风区非常湿润的季风季节出现的可能性非常大,进而会导致相应地区洪水风险增加.本文总结了迄今为此可收集到的有关长江洪水的资料.利用一些案例来分析研究未来假定情景下气候对水文的影响,并对东亚地区的模拟结果进行了讨论.     

Contribution to the Global Warming Mitigation of Marshlands Conversion to Croplands in the Sanjiang Plain,Northeast China

Based on the estimation of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions and carbon sequestration of the total conversion of marshlands (TMC), marshlands conversion to paddy fields (MCPFs) and marshlands conversion to uplands (MCULs), this study revealed the contribution to the global warming mitigation (CGWM) of paddy fields versus uplands converted from marshlands in the Sanjiang Plain (excluding the Muling‐Xingkai Plain on south of Wanda Mountain), Heilongjiang Province, northeast China. The results showed that the total area of MCPFs and MCULs was 504.23 × 10³ ha between 1982 and 2005. The CGWM per unit area was 45.53 t CO₂eq/ha for MCPFs and that was 23.95 t CO₂eq/ha for MCULs, with an obvious 47.40% reduction. The MCPFs and MCULs ecosystems acted as the carbon sink all of the year. As far as CGWM per unit area is concerned, MCPFs mitigated the greenhouse effect which was greater than MCULs. And it was effective that the implementation of the uplands transformed into paddy fields in Northeast China with regard to marshlands protection and croplands (including paddy fields and uplands) reclamation.     

近百年来亚洲中部内陆湖泊演变及其原因分析

南疆博斯腾湖湖相沉积物碳酸盐稳定同位素,孢粉及地化元素含量的波动揭示了于１１．０￣１０．０ｋａＢＰ期间的相对冷湿的环境特征,这次变冷事件在年代上可与末次冰消期的新仙女木气候突然变冷事件相对应,虽然目前还无法圆满解释此事件的成因机制,但此事件在极端干昌的南疆博斯腾湖湖相沉积中的发现,无疑对深入认识此事件发生的全球性以及探讨其成因机制具有重要意义。     

Prediction of the arrival of peak nitrate concentrations at the water table at the regional scale in Great Britain

A simple process‐based approach to predict regional‐scale loading of nitrate at the water table was implemented in a GIS for Great Britain. This links a nitrate input function, unsaturated zone thickness, and lithologically dependent rate of nitrate unsaturated zone travel to estimate arrival time of nitrate at the water table. The nitrate input function is the loading at the base of the soil and has been validated using unsaturated zone porewater profiles. The unsaturated zone thickness uses groundwater levels based on regional‐scale observations infilled by interpolated river base levels. Estimates of the rate of unsaturated zone travel are attributed from regional‐scale hydrogeological mapping. The results indicate that peak nitrate loading may have already arrived at the water table for many aquifers, but that it has not where the unsaturated zone is relatively thick There are contrasting outcomes for the two main aquifers which have similar unsaturated zone velocities, the predominantly low relief Permo‐Triassic sandstones, and the Chalk, which forms significant topographic features. For about 60% of the Chalk, the peak input has not yet reached the water table and will continue to arrive over the next 60 years. The methodology is readily transferable and provides a robust method for estimating peak arrival time for any diffuse conservative pollutant where an input function can be defined at a regional scale and requires only depth to groundwater and a hydrogeological classification. The methodology is extendable in that if additional information is available this can easily be incorporated into the model scheme. British Geology Survey © NERC 2011. Hydrological Process © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd     

云南东部地区近期大震危险性地点分析

金沙江—红河断裂是一条超地壳大断裂，为云南地区重要的构造边界，把云南地区划分为东、西两个部分。本简要介绍了云南东部地区主要活动断裂的活动性质，结合发震构造标志、地震破裂围空特征和大震重复周期等分析了红河断裂以东(含红河断裂带)地区的大震危险性，认为云南东部地区近期大震的危险地点有2个：小江断裂中段东支和石屏—建水断裂带石屏以东地区。     

Regional and temporal characteristics of <Emphasis Type="Italic">bovine tuberculosis</Emphasis> of cattle in Great Britain

Bovine tuberculosis (TB) is a chronic disease in cattle that causes a serious food security challenge to the agricultural industry in terms of dairy and meat production. Spatio-temporal disease analysis in terms of time trends and geographic disparities of disease dynamics can provide useful insights into the overall efficiency of control efforts as well as the relative efficiency of different management measures towards eradication. In GB, Scotland has had a risk based surveillance testing policy under which high risk herds are tested frequently, and in September 2009 was officially declared as TB free. Wales have had an annual or more frequent testing policy for all cattle herds since January 2010, while in England several herds are still tested every 4 years except some high TB prevalence areas where annual testing is applied. Time series analysis using publicly available data for total tests on herds, total cattle slaughtered, new herd incidents, and herds not TB free, were analysed globally for GB and locally for the constituent regions of Wales, Scotland, West, North, and East England. After detecting trends over time, underlying regional differences were compared with the testing policies in the region. Total cattle slaughtered are decreasing in Wales, Scotland and West England, but increasing in the North and East English regions. New herd incidents, i.e., disease incidence, are decreasing in Wales, Scotland, West English region, but increasing in North and East English regions. Herds not TB free, i.e., disease prevalence, are increasing in West, North, and East English regions, while they are decreasing in Wales and Scotland. Total cattle slaughtered were positively correlated with total tests in the West, North, and East English regions, with high slopes of regression indicating that additional testing is likely to facilitate the eradication of the disease. There was no correlation between total cattle slaughtered and total tests on herds in Wales indicating that herds are tested frequent enough in order to detect all likely cases and so control TB. The main conclusion of the analysis conducted here is that more frequent testing is leading to lower TB infections in cattle both in terms of TB prevalence as well as TB incidence.     

The permanence of stream networks in Britain

Stream networks used in studies of basin morphometry, network topology, flood hydrology, and sediment production should be defined as precisely as possible. Previous work has drawn attention to the way in which stream network definition varies on maps of different scales, on maps employing different conventions devised in relation to the dynamic network, and according to whether maps, remote sensing or field survey sources are used. Networks also vary in extent according to the date of survey and after considering the instructions to surveyors it is shown that such changes, over periods of 100 years reflect changes in network extent. For three areas of Britain, network change can be identified by comparison of maps of different dates, by comparison of these changes with the results of field survey, and by reference to dateable features such as inclosure boundaries. Changes of drainage networks since the nineteenth century are shown to be significant in extent and they have often occurred as a result of the replacement of flushes by clearly defined stream channels. This transformation has often occurred as a result of new or modified systems of stormwater drainage from roads, tracks or farms, and the planning of the future disposal of road drainage should be considered carefully in relation to such stream network changes. The changes of drainage networks identified from maps of different dates and editions can provide a useful data base for studies of network topology and may also be significant in relation to palaeohydrological investigations.     

Climate Change and the Disappearance of Malaria from England

As the world's climate continues to change there is concern that this may cause malaria to spread to new areas. Here we examine whether past changes in temperature, in addition to social changes, may have affected malaria in England. Our analysis indicates that cold summers experienced during the 1800s may have contributed to the disappearance of this disease from the country. As our summers become progressively warner it is unlikely that malaria will become firmly re-established on these shores, although the possibility of future outbreaks should not be ignored.     

Plate tectonics,palaeoenvironments and limestone geomorphology in West-Central Britain

The variety of active, exhumed, and buried limestone landforms of northern England, North Wales, and the Isle of Man arises in part from the way in which Dinantian (Lower Carboniferous) sedimentation was affected by a tilt-block basement structure evolved during the closure of the Iapetus Ocean suture to the north, and partly to subsequent plate tectonic movements associated with the closure of the proto-Tethys ocean, the opening of the Atlantic Ocean and the Alpine orogeny. Landforms created during the Dinantian now form important exhumed and buried landscape features. The Permian half-graben structures of the eastern Irish Sea-Cheshire-Worcester Basins account for many of the contrasts between the upland karsts of the Pennines and the lowland karsts of coastal areas.