链接热带东印度洋环流的海洋波动桥梁

热带印度洋环流动力研究对认识海盆尺度物质和水体交换、区域乃至全球气候变化具有重要意义,亦服务于人类的生产生活。回顾了近年来基于中国科学院南海海洋研究所热带印度洋观测取得的环流动力方面的研究进展,探讨提出海洋波动桥梁概念,即：赤道波通过水平传播、垂向传播和东边界反射,在赤道上混合层、次表层和中深层调制着赤道流系的生成与变化;随着波动能量在东边界以沿岸开尔文波和反射罗斯贝波的形式往外赤道传输,赤道动力过程亦调节着外赤道的环流结构变化。作为能量传输的十字路口,海洋东边界是环流变化的动力支点。在其支撑下,海洋波动成为环流间重要的能量纽带,贡献于环流的动力联系,是东印度洋环流多尺度变化的重要内因。基于观测,初步探讨了大尺度气候模态等外因对热带东印度洋环流的影响。凝练的海洋波动桥梁动力学框架,为进一步研究热带印度洋的环流的特征、变化及影响提供科学启示。     

Track prediction of Indian Ocean cyclones using Lagrangian advection model

A new model has been developed for track prediction of Indian Ocean cyclones. The model utilizes environmental steering flow using the forecasts from a high-resolution global model and the effect due to earth??s rotation (the beta-effect) to determine the future movement of cyclone. A new approach based on vertical profile of potential vorticity is used to determine weights for different vertical levels for computation of mean steering current. Despite the fact that the model is based on the dynamical framework, the operational cost and time for running the model is only a fraction of what is needed by a normal numerical weather prediction model. This new approach will enhance flexibility in defining the initial position of the cyclone in the model, and also, it is possible to create a large ensemble of predicted tracks to assess the impact of the uncertainty of initial cyclone position on the predicted tracks. The performance of the model for ten cyclones, viz. GONU (02?C08 Jun, 2007), SIDR (11?C16 November, 2007), NARGIS (27 Apr?C04 May, 2008), RASHMI (25?C27 October, 2008) KHAI-MUK (14?C16 November, 2008), NISHA (25?C27 November, 2008), SEVEN (04?C08 December, 2008), BIJLI (14?C18 April, 2009), AILA (23?C26 May, 2009), and PHYAN (09?C11 November, 2009), have been tested in the present study. The forecast errors of the present model have been computed with respect to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center best track analysis positions. The forecast skill improvement (mean of ten cyclones) of the model with respect to the Climatology and Persistence (CLIPER) statistical model varies from 7 to 67?% between 12 and 72?h.     

A 3D-density simulation of the structure of the tectonosphere in the SW Indian Ocean

The method and results of 3D simulation of the structure of the tectonosphere in the SW Indian Ocean based on gravity field data are presented. The study included the formation of 3D-density models for several areas covering large tectonic structures in the SW Indian Ocean. The formation of 3D-density models of the structure of the tectonosphere was based on the results of structural analysis, which had been performed earlier for the gravity and anomalous magnetic fields, and 2D-density simulation along profiles crossing large structures in the study region. As a result of the 3D simulation, maps of the Moho discontinuity and maps of the density distribution in the oceanic crust were built for the largest structures of the region.     

A coupled physical-biological-chemical model for the Indian Ocean

A coupled physical-biological-chemical model has been developed at C-MMACS. for studying the time-variation of primary productivity and air-sea carbon-dioxide exchange in the Indian Ocean. The physical model is based on the Modular Ocean Model, Version 2 (MOM2) and the biological model describes the nonlinear dynamics of a 7-component marine ecosystem. The chemical model includes dynamical equation for the evolution of dissolved inorganic carbon and total alkalinity. The interaction between the biological and chemical model is through the Redfield ratio. The partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO₂) of the surface layer is obtained from the chemical equilibrium equations of Penget al 1987. Transfer coefficients for air-sea exchange of CO₂ are computed dynamically based on the wind speeds. The coupled model reproduces the high productivity observed in the Arabian Sea off the Somali and Omani coasts during the Southwest (SW) monsoon. The entire Arabian Sea is an outgassing region for CO₂ in spite of high productivity with transfer rates as high as 80 m-mol C/m² /day during SW monsoon near the Somali Coast on account of strong winds.     

Medium-range forecast of cyclogenesis over North Indian Ocean with multilayer perceptron model using satellite data

An attempt is made in this study to develop a model to forecast the cyclonic depressions leading to cyclonic storms over North Indian Ocean (NIO) with 3 days lead time. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and the forecast quality of the model is compared with other neural network and multiple linear regression models to assess the forecast skill and performances of the MLP model. The input matrix of the model is prepared with the data of cloud coverage, cloud top temperature, cloud top pressure, cloud optical depth, cloud water path collected from remotely sensed moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS), and sea surface temperature. The input data are collected 3 days before the cyclogenesis over NIO. The target output is the central pressure, pressure drop, wind speed, and sea surface temperature associated with cyclogenesis over NIO. The models are trained with the data and records from 1998 to 2008. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model varies between 0 and 7.2 % for target outputs. The errors with MLP are less than radial basis function network, generalized regression neural network, linear neural network where the errors vary between 0 and 8.4 %, 0.3 and 24.8 %, and 0.3 and 32.4 %, respectively. The forecast with conventional statistical multiple linear regression model, on the other hand, generates error values between 15.9 and 32.4 %. The performances of the models are validated for the cyclonic storms of 2009, 2010, and 2011. The forecast errors with MLP model during validation are also observed to be minimum.     

Contrasting variability in foraminiferal and organic paleotemperature proxies in sedimenting particles of the Mozambique Channel (SW Indian Ocean)

Accurate sea surface temperature (SST) proxies are important for understanding past ocean and climate systems. Here, we examine material collected from a deep-moored sediment trap in the Mozambique Channel (SW Indian Ocean) to constrain and compare both inorganic (δ¹⁸O, Mg/Ca) and organic (, TEX₈₆) temperature proxies in a highly dynamic oceanographic setting for application in paleoceanography. High-resolution time-series current velocity data from long-term moorings (2003 - present) deployed across the Mozambique Channel reveal the periodic migration of four to six meso-scale eddies through the channel per year. These meso-scale eddies strongly influence water mass properties including temperature and salinity. Despite the dynamic oceanographic setting, fluxes of the surface-dwelling planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoidesruber and Globigerinoides trilobus follow a seasonal pattern. Temperatures reconstructed from G. ruber and G. trilobus δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca closely mirror seasonal SST variability and their flux-weighted annual mean SSTs of 28.1 °C and 27.3 °C are in close agreement with annual mean satellite SST (27.6 °C). The sub-surface dwelling foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei and Globigerinoides scitula recorded high-frequency temperature variations that, on average, reflect conditions at water depths of 50-70 m and 200-250 m, respectively. Concentrations and fluxes of organic compounds (alkenones and crenarchaeol) display no or only moderate seasonality but flux weighted means of the associated temperature signatures, , and of 28.3 °C and 28.1 °C, respectively, also closely reflect mean annual SST. We analyzed all time-series data using multiple statistical approaches including cross-correlation and spectral analysis. Eddy variability was clearly expressed in the statistical analysis of physical oceanographic parameters (current velocity and sub-surface temperature) and revealed a frequency of four to six cycles per year. In contrast, statistical analysis of proxy data from the sediment trap did not reveal a significant coupling between eddy migration and organic compound fluxes or reconstructed temperatures. This is likely a result of the relatively low resolution (21 days) and short (2.5 years) duration of the time series, which is close to the detection limit of the eddy frequency.     

Altimeter data assimilation in the tropical Indian Ocean using water property conserving scheme

Altimeter data have been assimilated in an ocean general circulation model using the water property conserving scheme. Two runs of the model have been conducted for the year 2004. In one of the runs, altimeter data have been assimilated sequentially, while in another run, assimilation has been suppressed. Assimilation has been restricted to the tropical Indian Ocean. An assessment of the strength of the scheme has been carried out by comparing the sea surface temperature (SST), simulated in the two runs, with in situ derived as well as remotely sensed observations of the same quantity. It has been found that the assimilation exhibits a significant positive impact on the simulation of SST. The subsurface effect of the assimilation could be judged by comparing the model simulated depth of the 20°C isotherm (hereafter referred to as D20), as a proxy of the thermocline depth, with the same quantity estimated from ARGO observations. In this case also, the impact is noteworthy. Effect on the dynamics has been judged by comparison of simulated surface current with observed current at a moored buoy location, and finally the impact on model sea level forecast in a free run after assimilation has been quantified in a representative example.     

Ocean sea-ice modelling in the Southern Ocean around Indian Antarctic stations

An eddy-resolving coupled ocean sea-ice modelling is carried out in the Southern Ocean region (9\(^{\circ }\)–78\(^{\circ }\)E; 51\(^{\circ }\)–71\(^{\circ }\)S) using the MITgcm. The model domain incorporates the Indian Antarctic stations, Maitri (11.7\({^{\circ }}\)E; 70.7\({^{\circ }}\)S) and Bharati (76.1\({^{\circ }}\)E; 69.4\({^{\circ }}\)S). The realistic simulation of the surface variables, namely, sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), surface currents, sea ice concentration (SIC) and sea ice thickness (SIT) is presented for the period of 1997–2012. The horizontal resolution of the model varies between 6 and 10 km. The highest vertical resolution of 5 m is taken near the surface, which gradually increases with increasing depths. The seasonal variability of the SST, SSS, SIC and currents is compared with the available observations in the region of study. It is found that the SIC of the model domain is increasing at a rate of 0.09% per month (nearly 1% per year), whereas, the SIC near Maitri and Bharati regions is increasing at a rate of 0.14 and 0.03% per month, respectively. The variability of the drift of the sea-ice is also estimated over the period of simulation. It is also found that the sea ice volume of the region increases at the rate of 0.0004 \(\hbox {km}^{3}\) per month (nearly 0.005 \(\hbox {km}^{3}\) per year). Further, it is revealed that the accumulation of sea ice around Bharati station is more as compared to Maitri station.     

南印度洋海区营养盐的分布特征

探讨了南印度洋海区总有机磷(TOP)、总有机氮(TON)以及溶解无机营养盐的分布规律。分析结果表明：研究海区内溶解无机营养盐受水体中生物活动和物理过程的综合影响,表层水体由于生物活动的消耗,其磷酸盐等无机营养元素的含量一般是采样水深范围内最低的;中深层水体由于生物活动的降低以及有机质矿化作用的影响,无机营养元素的变化范围较小。表层水体中TOP和TON含量占TP和TN的主要部分,说明表层水体中的氮和磷主要以有机态形式存在,且沿着37.8°S从西向东,TOP和TON的含量以及TOP/TP和TON/TN的比值呈降低的趋势。研究海区叶绿素a的分析结果表明,初级生产力的变化可能是控制研究海区TON和TOP空间分布的主要因素。不同形态氮、磷营养元素的相关分析表明,有机营养盐和无机营养盐之间互为补充,且表层水体中有机氮和磷是水体初级生产所需营养盐的重要来源,总氮、总磷的关系表明研究区初级生产力并不受氮、磷的限制。     

The warm pool in the Indian Ocean

The structure of the warm pool (region with temperature greater than 28°C) in the equatorial Indian Ocean is examined and compared with its counterpart in the Pacific Ocean using the climatology of Levitus. Though the Pacific warm pool is larger and warmer, a peculiarity of the pool in the Indian Ocean is its seasonal variation. The surface area of the pool changes from 24 × 10⁶ km² in April to 8 × 10⁶ km² in September due to interaction with the southwest monsoon. The annual cycles of sea surface temperature at locations covered by the pool during at least a part of the year show the following modes: (i) a cycle with no significant variation (observed in the western equatorial Pacific and central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean), (ii) a single maximum/minimum (northern and southern part of the Pacific warm pool and the south Indian Ocean), (iii) two maxima/minima (Arabian Sea, western equatorial Indian Ocean and southern Bay of Bengal), and (iv) a rapid rise, a steady phase and a rapid fall (northern Bay of Bengal).     

Incursion of the Pacific Ocean Water into the Indian Ocean

Using the data collected during the International Indian Ocean Expedition, maps showing the distribution of depth, acceleration potential, salinity and oxyty were prepared for the northeast monsoon for the four potential thermosteric anomaly surfaces: 160, 120, 80 and 60 cl/t. Zonal components of current along 84°E were computed from the geopotential dynamic heights. From such an analysis, it became clear that low-salinity water from the Pacific intrudes into the western Indian Ocean through the Banda and Timor seas in the upper layers above 100 cl/t surface, while the North Indian Ocean Water penetrates towards the Eastern Archipelago below 100 cl/t surface. The South Equatorial Countercurrent and the Tropical Countercurrent are well depicted on the vertical section of zonal components as well as on the distribution of acceleration potential.     

Application of wave model for weather routing of ships in the North Indian Ocean

Weather routing of ships is used to establish the shortest time route or the most economical route from a departure to arrival point by applying available information of the weather condition viz. wind, wave and current. Information on ship speed loss due to these effects is pre-computed using sea-keeping computing tools, which are then suitably employed in the optimum ship routing algorithm. This developed algorithm was investigated using the wave height information from GEOSAT altimeter records. Dijkstra’s path optimization scheme, which employs optimal control theory and dynamic programming technique, is used to obtain reliable optimum route in a given random sea-state.     

Fragments of continental structures in the Indian Ocean

Fragments of continental structures (microcontinents) composed of sialic rocks are widespread in the Indian Ocean, where they are located in its African, Australian, and Indian margins. The origin of these fragments is related to splitting off from continent margins along faults and further seaward motion driven by the tectonic flow of mantle masses.     

Intensity forecast of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean using multilayer perceptron model: skill and performance verification

The coastal regions of India are profoundly affected by tropical cyclones during both pre- and post-monsoon seasons with enormous loss of life and property leading to natural disasters. The endeavour of the present study is to forecast the intensity of the tropical cyclones that prevail over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal of North Indian Ocean (NIO). A multilayer perceptron (MLP) model is developed for the purpose and compared the forecast through MLP model with other neural network and statistical models to assess the forecast skill and performances of MLP model. The central pressure, maximum sustained surface wind speed, pressure drop, total ozone column and sea surface temperature are taken to form the input matrix of the models. The target output is the intensity of the tropical cyclones as per the T??number. The result of the study reveals that the forecast error with MLP model is minimum (4.70?%) whereas the forecast error with radial basis function network (RBFN) is observed to be 14.62?%. The prediction with statistical multiple linear regression and ordinary linear regression are observed to be 9.15 and 9.8?%, respectively. The models provide the forecast beyond 72?h taking care of the change in intensity at every 3-h interval. The performance of MLP model is tested for severe and very severe cyclonic storms like Mala (2006), Sidr (2007), Nargis (2008), Aila (2009), Laila (2010) and Phet (2010). The forecast errors with MLP model for the said cyclones are also observed to be considerably less. Thus, MLP model in forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones over NIOs may thus be considered to be an alternative of the conventional operational forecast models.     

New Somali Basin magnetic anomalies and a plate model for the early Indian Ocean

The oldest portions of the Indian Ocean formed via the breakup of Gondwana and the subsequent fragmentation of East Gondwana. We present a constrained plate model for this early Indian Ocean development for the time period from Gondwana Breakup until the start of the Cretaceous Normal Superchron. The motions of the East Gondwana terranes are determined using new geophysical observations in the Somali Basin and existing geophysical interpretations from other coeval Indian Ocean basins. Within the Somali Basin, recent satellite gravity data clearly resolve traces of an east–west trending extinct spreading ridge and north–south oriented fracture zones. A thorough compilation of Somali Basin ship track magnetic data allows us to interpret magnetic anomalies M24Bn through M0r about this extinct ridge. Our magnetic interpretations from the Somali Basin are similar in age, spreading rate, and spreading directions to magnetic anomalies previously interpreted in the neighboring Mozambique Basin and Riiser Larsen Sea. The similarity between the two magnetic anomaly datasets allows us to match both basin's older magnetic anomaly picks by defining a pole of rotation for a single and cohesive East Gondwana plate. However, following magnetic anomaly M15n, we find it is no longer possible to match magnetic picks from both basins and maintain plausible plate motions. In order to match the post-M15n geophysical data we are forced to model the motions of Madagascar/India and East Antarctica/Australia as independent plates. The requirement to utilize two independent plates after anomaly M15n provides strong circumstantial evidence that suggests East Gondwana breakup began around 135 Ma.     

Seamounts in the Central Indian Ocean Basin: indicators of the Indian plate movement

The study of seamount parameters in the tectonically most-complicated and least-understood Indian Ocean assumes importance since their properties vary as a function of tectonic setting, physics of lithosphere, conduit geometry and chemical composition of magma. More than 100 such seamounts ranging in summit height (h) from 300 to 2870 m, are indentified in the oceanic crust between Indian continent and Mid-Indian Ridge (MIR) and South-East Indian Ridge (SEIR). Most of the minor seamounts (h > 1000) are found in the southern part of the study area. Major seamounts (h < 1000 m) are roughly distributed in two groups—the northern group on Cretaceous Oceanic Crust and southern group on Pliocene-Miocene Oceanic Crust. On an average northern group seamounts (SM 1 to 6) are taller, wider and flatter than those from the southern group. These seamounts appear to be the result of continuous growth from tapped, moving magma chamber while stress depleted magma and inconsistent Indian Plate movement during Mid-Tertiary are attributed to the origin of southern group of smaller seamounts. Distribution and morphology of seamounts as a whole indicate their formation either from Reunion hotspot or from two separate hotspots in the geological past.     

The offshore east African rift system: new insights from the Sakalaves seamounts (Davie Ridge,SW Indian Ocean)

The offshore branch of the East African Rift System (EARS) has developed during Late Cenozoic time along the eastern Africa continental margin. While Neogene–Pleistocene extensional tectonic deformation has been evidenced along the northern segment of the Davie Ridge, the spatial extent of deformation further south remains poorly documented. Based on recent and various oceanographic datasets (bathymetric surveys, dredge samples and seismic profiles), our study highlights active normal faulting, modern east–west extensional tectonic deformation and Late Cenozoic alkaline volcanism at the Sakalaves Seamounts (18°S, Davie Ridge) that seem tightly linked to the offshore EARS development. In parallel, rift‐related tectonic subsidence appears responsible for the drowning of the Sakalaves Miocene shallow‐water carbonate platform. Our findings bring new insights regarding the development of the EARS offshore branch and support recent kinematic models proposing the existence of a plate boundary across the Mozambique Channel.     

Tectonic types of deepwater basins in the Indian Ocean

Among 16 deepwater basins located in the central Indian Ocean and along its western, eastern, and southern margins, the central, perioceanic, and perispreading tectonic types are recognized. The Central, Cocos, Wharton, and Crozet basins belong to the first type. The second type comprises the Somalia, Mascarene, Madagascar, Mozambique, and Agulhas basins localized along the western margin of the ocean; the Argo, Gascoyne, Cuvier, and Perth basins that are situated along its eastern periphery; and the African-Antarctic Basin in the southern periphery. The South Australian and Australian-Antarctic basins pertain to the third type. Spatially and tectonically, the pericontinental basins are conjugated with continental blocks in the ocean (rises, plateaus, microcontinents). Together, they make up specific tectonic systems that extend parallel to the continents. The formation of such systems is controlled by horizontal movement of continental blocks and tectonic subsidence of the oceanic bottom.     

Improvement in predictability of waves over the Indian Ocean

Accurate prediction of ocean surface waves is a challenging task with many associated difficulties. Availability of good quality wind and wave information from satellite platforms inspired the scientific community to assimilate such data in various spectral wave models for enhancing the accuracy of prediction. Over the Indian Ocean, which is the region of interest for the present study, wave heights in extreme situation can go up to 12–14 m, thereby increasing the probability of coastal hazards. This region is further governed by the southern ocean swells that propagate thousands of kilometers. These are, in general, not well captured by the spectral wave models. Therefore, assimilation of altimeter data in open ocean wave model WAM has been attempted with the aim of enhancing the quality of prediction of significant wave height. Further, simulated wave spectra have been assimilated in a coastal wave model SWAN. This assimilation has been found to significantly improve the prediction of the height of wind waves as well as swell waves. V. Bhatt and S. Surendran are former students of Meteorology and Oceanography Group, Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad.