论综合灾害风险防范模式——寻求全球变化影响的适应性对策

在评述国际上近年开展综合灾害风险研究进展的基础上,总结了笔者对综合灾害研究的一些想法与开展综合灾害风险防范的实践,提出了建立综合灾害风险防范模式,即发展区域灾害系统的理论;综合灾害脆弱性、恢复性与适应性,全面理解灾害风险的形成机制;整合政府、企业与社会减灾资源,系统集成区域减灾范式;建立巨灾风险转移机制,实现减灾由区域防范到全球防范的综合。     

灾害风险科学发展与科技减灾

对近期召开的一系列国际灾害风险会议讨论的灾害风险科学关键前沿问题进行了分析。针对正在制定的国际减轻灾害风险后兵库战略框架(HFA2),就未来灾害风险科学发展与科技减灾趋势做了综合研判,提出加深对灾害系统复杂性的认识,即从灾害系统各要素的相互作用认识灾害系统的复杂性,从全球变化的区域特征与成因机制认识气候变化风险的复杂性,从区域发展水平与模式认识巨灾风险的复杂性。提出从灾害系统的复杂性厘定科技减轻灾害风险的战略与对策,即建立一体化的综合风险防御范式,建立多空间尺度的综合风险防范体系,建立多功能的巨灾风险防范金融体系,建立多利益相关者防范灾害风险的凝聚力模式,建立风险信息服务与对策仿真模拟综合集成平台。     

多灾种综合风险评估与防范的理论认知:风险防范"五维"范式

在气候变化、经济全球化和快速城市化背景下,人类社会所面临的多灾种巨灾风险不断增加.综合风险防范事关人民群众生命财产安全与社会和谐稳定,是国家公共安全体系建设和可持续发展战略实施的重要内容.在系统梳理世界综合减灾与风险防范行动经验的基础上,客观审视我国防灾减灾救灾工作中存在的问题,从实际国情出发,提出构建中国综合灾害风险防范"五维"范式,即:理论建构引领实践探索、统筹谋划健全"一案三制"、综合思维优化管理模式、有的放矢制定应对策略和多措并举提升防范能力.面对日益复杂严峻的多灾种巨灾风险形势,需不断加强风险形成机制及其多维影响研究和风险普查、评估与监测预警工作,加快推进体制机制改革,完善法律保障和应急预案体系,打造政府主导、社会共治管理模式,依托现代科技实现风险管理信息化、智能化、精细化转型,为扎实提升我国综合灾害风险防范能力、实现安全与发展的有机统筹提供强有力的支撑和全方位的保障.     

把“廉政风险点”转化为“廉政安全点”

构建廉政风险防范机制是加强党风廉政建设的一项创新举措。天台县国土资源局紧扣“查得准、防得牢、控得住”这三个关键环节。探索建立防范机制,努力把“廉政风险点”转化为“廉政安全点”。     

全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究

实现可持续发展,需要加深理解全球环境变化对可更新资源保障能力和灾害发生频率、强度和时空格局的影响。近年来发生在世界各国的巨灾造成了严重的灾情,如2008年中国南方的冰冻雨雪灾害,2007年孟加拉国的台风灾害,2005年的美国卡特里娜飓风等。加强对全球环境变化背景下的综合灾害风险防范研究已成为一个迫切需要解决的可持续发展问题。为此,在CNC IHDP的领导下,CNC IHDP RG工作组向IHDP提出了开展全球环境变化与综合风险防范研究的建议。经过2年多的努力,作为IHDP新一轮国际性核心科学计划——综合风险防范（IHDP IRG）已经得到IHDP SC的认可,即将于2009年4月在德国波恩IHDP科学大会期间正式宣布启动。该核心计划为从事风险研究、管理和具体实践方面的全球顶级专家和组织搭建交流平台,并引导未来国际综合风险防范研究从综合灾害风险防范的科学、技术与管理问题入手,通过案例对比,从多学科角度,对综合灾害风险防范的理论和方法进行创新性研究,以推动全球综合减灾实践的深入发展。CNC IHDP RG作为这一核心科学计划的倡议、发起和主要组织者,通过该计划的成功实施,不但可以在国际上充分展现我国综合灾害风险研究领域的成果,更将有助于大幅度提升中国在全球环境变化研究中的国际地位。     

特约主编致读者

正21世纪以来,在气候变化、构造活动与人类活动的综合作用下,自然灾害强度和风险明显增大,严重危害人类社会的发展,防灾减灾已成为全人类共同面临的巨大挑战和亟须解决的重大课题。特别是巨型灾害,往往造成严重的生命财产损失,甚至对区域或全国性社会经济系统造成严重冲击。巨灾突发性强,发生频率低,观测数据和历史记录稀缺,形成机理与风险演化规律研究难度大,目前科学认识难以满足巨灾的防灾需求。     

潍坊市局创新构建三项预警防范体系

2009年以来,潍坊市国土资源局以构建预警防范体系为工作重点,全力推进国土资源系统党风廉政建设取得明显成效,实现“三无”,即：无因软环境问题而被投诉者、无越级信访、无违法违纪问题。被授予全国精神文明建设工作先进单位、全国国土资源系统依法行政工作先进单位。继续保持国土资源部纪检监察工作联系点,被部纪检组、监察局确定为加强基层党风廉政建设工作联系点。创新建立了“三项防范机制”。一是建立廉政告知防范机制。组织全系统科级以上领导干部率先公开作出不违反规定插手建设领域工程,不违反规定住房、用车、旅游、婚丧嫁娶,不接受现金、有价证券和支付凭证等12条廉政承诺。积极开展廉政谈话,结合全系统干部调整,对新任职党员领导干部进行集体任前廉政谈话,适时进行防范教育。同时,坚持把关键单位、岗位和人员作为提醒防范的另一重点,强化防范教育。二是建立监督纠错防范机制。适时对县市区局纪委书记（纪检组长）进行了调整,市局和所属17个县市区局全部成立了纪委（纪检组）,配齐了纪委书记或纪检组长,设立了纪检监察室,国土资源所全部配备了专兼职纪检监察员,形成了市县乡三级国土资源纪检监察工作网络。加强纪检监察干部队伍的培训与交流,学习纪检业务,不断提高纪检监察干部队伍的能力素质。     

复杂地质条件下超长钻孔灌注桩施工风险分析

复杂地质条件下特大桥梁基础工程中的钻孔灌注桩施工具有典型的高风险性。充分了解风险源,开展风险评估与分析,及时防范和化解工程风险具有重要意义。以富春江特大桥工程建设为研究案例,从承包商的立场出发,分析了复杂地质下特大跨江桥梁工程基础施工中特有的风险,从工程管理的具体操作层面详细探讨了钻孔灌注桩施工中存在的影响工程进度、质量及成本的风险因素,建立了桥梁工程风险的多层次模糊综合评价模型,以期达到有利于施工管理、提高施工效益和促进工程风险管理发展的目的。     

太湖流域应对特大洪水防洪工程效益模拟

防洪效益评估对防洪工程投资决策与减灾对策制定具有重要意义。建立集成了与太湖流域防洪效益评估相关的系列模型和方法,包括含降雨产流与平原净雨计算的水文分析方法、由河网水动力学模型和平原区域洪水分析模型组成的大尺度水力学模型、综合流域社会经济和淹没因素的洪灾损失评估模型。模拟了太湖流域遇特大洪水的灾害损失,开展了不同防洪工程应对流域性特大洪水减灾效益的预测分析。结果表明：1999年型200年一遇降雨将会给太湖流域造成高达568.29亿元的直接经济损失,外排动力增强30%至100%的防洪效益介于26.69亿元到45.70亿元之间,新建圩区、太浦河拓宽的防洪效益依次减小,而圩区泵排能力增加30%的防洪效益仅为0.65亿元。基于研究成果提出了增设外排泵站、加强圩区科学调度、通过保险分担风险等应对特大洪水的对策措施建议,为太湖流域特大洪水的防治提供支撑和参考。     

太湖流域应对特大洪水防洪工程效益模拟

防洪效益评估对防洪工程投资决策与减灾对策制定具有重要意义。建立集成了与太湖流域防洪效益评估相关的系列模型和方法,包括含降雨产流与平原净雨计算的水文分析方法、由河网水动力学模型和平原区域洪水分析模型组成的大尺度水力学模型、综合流域社会经济和淹没因素的洪灾损失评估模型。模拟了太湖流域遇特大洪水的灾害损失,开展了不同防洪工程应对流域性特大洪水减灾效益的预测分析。结果表明:1999年型200年一遇降雨将会给太湖流域造成高达568.29亿元的直接经济损失,外排动力增强30%至100%的防洪效益介于26.69亿元到45.70亿元之间,新建圩区、太浦河拓宽的防洪效益依次减小,而圩区泵排能力增加30%的防洪效益仅为0.65亿元。基于研究成果提出了增设外排泵站、加强圩区科学调度、通过保险分担风险等应对特大洪水的对策措施建议,为太湖流域特大洪水的防治提供支撑和参考。     

青藏高原多灾种自然灾害综合风险管理

青藏高原是中国自然灾害多发、频发重点区域,区内地震、滑坡泥石流、冰湖溃决、雪灾等灾种广泛发育,其灾害分布较广,灾损及其影响巨大,已成为高原经济社会可持续、健康发展的一个重要制约因素。高原自然灾害风险等级具有明显的空间异质性。整体上,地震、滑坡泥石流、冰湖溃决灾害高危区位于高原南部和东部边缘大片区域,该区域也是高原多灾种频发地带,许多路网和管网均处于该频发地段,其潜在危害巨大。青藏高原地形地貌复杂、气候变化空间异质性较强、冰冻圈发育,交通等基础设施广布,经济条件较差,这些因素形成了多灾种自然灾害发育的主要致灾因子和孕灾环境。高原受多致灾因子共同影响,各灾种承灾体多有重叠之处,亟须加强多灾种自然灾害综合管控研究。综合风险管控主导思路是决策者利用多灾种成灾机理研究结果,通过工程和非工程措施,以及各部门联防联控理念,全过程防范、减缓或规避自然灾害综合风险。具体综合风险管控策略如实时监测/观测、信息共享、部委会商、群测群防、防灾教育培训、保险承担、灾前规划。     

四川省地质环境状况及地质灾害发育特征研究

四川省是我国地质灾害最多的省份之一,具有点多、面广、规模大、成灾快、爆发频率高、延续时间长的特点.通过对5770个已知地质灾害点的综合研究分析,总结归纳四川省地质灾害的发育规律和特征,建立崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的评判模型,并对全省地质灾害发育强度、地质灾害危险性进行分区评价,提出四川省地质灾害防治体系框架体系及措施,为全省地质灾害的防治工作提供了科学的理论和基础依据.     

Characterizing the spatial distribution of typical natural disaster vulnerability in China from 2010 to 2017

Natural disaster vulnerability can intuitively reflect the susceptibility of an area to environmental changes. Better understanding the spatial distribution of natural disaster vulnerability is a critical process for taking effective adaptation and management. Although significant achievements have been made in disaster vulnerability, few studies are known about natural disaster vulnerability at the national scale, especially from the typical natural disaster events in China. In this study, with normalizing selected indicators and calculating vulnerability index, we analyzed the spatial distribution of natural disasters vulnerability during 2010–2017 using the geospatial techniques. The results showed that natural disaster vulnerability has certain spatial differences, but different natural disaster can occur in the same area during the study period. Drought disaster can occur in all regions of China, especially in Inner Mongolia. Flood disaster is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River Basin. The wind and storm disaster is chiefly in the northern regions in China. The freezing disaster is widely distributed in China. Furthermore, the regions with low vulnerability were primarily distributed in the eastern coastal region, indicating that the rapid development of economy and technology can resist or mitigate natural disaster to a certain extent. This study offers a solution to study natural disasters and provides scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation actions.

     

基于“3S”技术的地质灾害监测预警系统在我国应用现状

中国具有地质构造复杂,地貌类型多样,山区面积比例高等特点。近年来,在全球气候变化背景下,大量重大工程建设、不合理的资源开发和人类活动,导致各类地质灾害频发,严重影响了民生改善和小康社会建设进程,为地质灾害风险管控带来了挑战。开展地质灾害监测预警研究,能够为灾害风险管控、监测预警、防治减灾工作提供重要的科学依据。本文由中国地质灾害监测预警研究入手,着重分析讨论了我国地质灾害发育概况、监测预警既有成果和研究现状。然后从地质灾害监测预警的主要内容、主要技术方法和主要监测预警模型的发展和现状三个方面,讨论了"3S"技术在地质灾害监测预警中的研究现状和实践应用;最后详细讨论了目前基于"3S"技术的地质灾害监测预警平台在三峡库区和国家防灾减灾工作中的应用情况。本文最终结论认为,"3S"技术的地质灾害监测预警系统在各行业防灾减灾工作中的应用已日趋成熟,未来的地质灾害监测预警系统将以"3S"技术为基础,集观测、研究、风险评估、预报预警、预防治理为一体,有机结合各相关学科和大数据、人工智能、互联网+技术,通过对地质灾害的过程进行仿真模拟,分析诱发灾害的因素和发生强度,提高地质灾害预报的时间、地点、发生强度的准确性。     

基于信息量法的地质灾害气象风险预警模型:以甘肃省陇南地区为例

地质灾害气象风险预警是目前地质灾害防治研究领域的难点和热点。陇南地区是中国地质灾害造成人员财产损失和受灾害威胁最严重的区域之一,为精细化和准确化预报陇南地区地质灾害风险,在ArcGIS平台将研究区划分为250 m×250 m的栅格单元,使用信息量法选取9个影响因素进行地质环境敏感性评价,结合有效降雨量构建地质灾害气象风险预警模型;该模型通过6次历史降雨事件引发的156起地质灾害验证,预报准确率为83.42%,提高了研究区内地质灾害风险预警精度。该研究基于信息量法的地质环境敏感性分区客观合理,综合考虑下垫面和气象要素的第二代预警模型在类似地区的应用,有较高的准确性和适用性。     

Natural disaster management mechanisms for probabilistic earthquake loss

High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development have affected all nations worldwide, but in disaster-prone areas, the impact is even greater serving to increase the extent of damage from natural catastrophes. As a result of the global nature of environmental change, modern economies have had to adapt, and sustainability is an extremely important issue. Clearly, natural disasters will affect the competitiveness of an enterprise. This study focuses on natural disaster management in an area in which the direct risks are posed by the physical effects of natural disasters such as floods, droughts, tsunamis, and rising sea levels. On a local level, the potential impact of a disaster on a company and how much damage (loss) it causes to facilities and future business are of concern. Each company must make plans to mitigate predictable risk. Risk assessments must be completed in a timely manner. Disaster management is also very important to national policy. Natural disaster management mechanisms can include strategies for disaster prevention, early warning (prediction) systems, disaster mitigation, preparedness and response, and human resource development. Both governmental administration (public) and private organizations should participate in these programs. Participation of the local community is especially important for successful disaster mitigation, preparation for, and the implementations of such measures. Our focus in this study is a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints.     

近年来我国泥石流灾害时空分布规律及成因分析

中国是世界上遭受泥石流灾害最为严重的国家之一,灾害发生数量大,造成的人员伤亡和财产损失较高,同时监测和防治难度极大。本文收集了2005-2015年间发生的全部泥石流灾害共计10 927起,对灾害发生时间、地点、灾害规模、灾害损失以及灾害成因进行了统计,发现泥石流灾害具有近年来发生数量明显下降、集中分布在西部和东南沿海省份、特大型和大型灾害损失最为惨重等时空分布特点及成灾特点。通过对具体案例剖析后发现,预警技术有待提高、山区城镇建设场地选址不当、多年来泥石流灾害防治标准偏低、震区灾害防治形势严峻、灾害防治意识淡薄为我国泥石流灾害危害严重的主要原因。同时,我国正在积极应对泥石流灾害的威胁,如：主动提高震区泥石流灾害防治标准,研发新型的拦挡技术;研发具备实时可视化等功能的监测预警系统,提高监测预警效率;提高群众防灾意识,大力发展群测群防监测预警体系;转变观念,将泥石流灾害防治与城镇化发展规划有机结合。     

构建中国自然灾害防灾减灾新体系

在全面建成小康社会的决胜阶段即“十三五”时期,我国进一步加大了防灾减灾科技投入,以防灾减灾业务需求为导向,围绕国家战略部署和防灾减灾业务链、创新链实施了一批重大科技项目,形成了成灾理论研究、关键技术研发、仪器装备研制、应用示范、专业队伍建设等综合防范体系,为“十四五”我国新时期自然灾害防治创新体系的构建打下了坚实的基础,并促进了中国特色防灾减灾事业的持续稳固发展。     

Success factors of enhanced disaster resilience in urban community

Due to its unique geographic environment, Taiwan is prone to natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons that can cause heavy casualties and huge property losses. The effects of global warming have also increased extreme climate events and the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Therefore, disaster prevention/mitigation and response is not only an important government policy issue, but also an important daily life issue. To increase the awareness of natural disasters and the importance of community safety, the Taiwan government actively promotes a community disaster prevention system. However, to avoid over-reliance on the government taskforce, the spontaneous participation and cooperation within communities can complete specific disaster preparedness and reinforce local resources for disaster prevention and response. Although the concept of disaster-resilient community (DRC) has been shaped for a long period of time, community residents cannot keep pace with the government, which may decrease the effectiveness of DRC development. Therefore, theoretical and practical studies of urban DRC become imperative. This qualitative case study used the participant observation method to collect relevant empirical data by performing action research with self-reflection. Particularly, this article is supplemented by service work experience of the researchers in DRC promotion. A qualitative analysis of case communities during training in disaster preparedness revealed the critical success factors (CSFs) affecting the level of community-based disaster prevention and protection works. Based on the literature and empirical data, the CSFs are discussed through three spindle constructs: coping strategy, operations management, and organizational behavior. Finally, the conclusions and suggestions are given for promoting sustainable DRC.     

Exploring the characteristics of major natural disasters in China and their impacts during the past decades

The exploration of the characteristics of natural disasters (NDs) and their impacts have important implications for guiding disaster prevention and mitigation. This paper discussed the characteristics of the major NDs that occurred in mainland China between 1980 and 2011 based on the number of disasters and fatalities, the affected population, and the resulting economic damages. We further examined the relationships between the level of social/economic development and the disaster losses. At last, we also explored the trend variations in disaster losses and losses expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (losses/GDP) for 31 provinces in China over the period from 1990 to 2011. The results show that over the past three decades, the number of major NDs and the number of affected population appear to exhibit a detectable increasing trend, while the direct economic losses and the deaths show a slight increase trend. The correlations between the number of disasters and the economic losses as well as deaths and between the economic losses and socioeconomic status were not significant (p > 0.05), which indicates that the growth in the number of disasters do not result in a significant increase in the disaster losses. Further investigations demonstrate that as economies develop, there are fewer losses/GDP in China over the past two decades. The per capita accumulative losses and losses/GDP in the western and central regions were higher than that in the eastern parts of China. There are significant regional differences in the trends in disaster losses and losses/GDP in China. Statistics also indicate that more than 70 % provinces in underdeveloped regions show an increasing trend in disaster losses, whereas exceeding 90 % provinces exhibit a decreasing trend in their losses/GDP. These results suggest that the economic development may have played an important role in improving the capacity of disaster prevention and reduction.