Prioritization of disaster risk in a community using GIS

Prioritization of disaster risk was carried out for a community in Toronto, Canada. Geographic information systems (GIS) were used for spatial analysis, including spatial overlays and clipping for extracting spatial and attribute information related to people’s vulnerability, critical infrastructure and landuse. In order to determine disaster risk, the overall community vulnerability was evaluated by combining social, economic, physical and environmental vulnerabilities. This paper uses the propane explosion incident as the case in point to demonstrate the methodology and procedure used to evaluate risk using GIS techniques. City of Toronto spatial data have been integrated with the study area to gather landuse information, identify risk zones based on the propane storage facility location and evaluate risks. Statistics Canada 2006 census data have been used for area demographics and people’s social and economic status. Vulnerability indicators were determined based on the GIS-derived spatial and attribute data for the hazard and evacuation zones followed by a quantitative spatial risk estimation and ranking. The methodology of this study, based on the risk evaluation and prioritization conducted, can be applied to future decision making in effective landuse planning and the development of risk management strategies.     

Peripherality in the global container shipping network: the case of the Southern African container port system

Regional trade co-operation, economic growth and greater political stability have enabled increased container throughput and container port capacity development. Earlier academic work has indicated that the functional position of this port region in the global maritime network might be shifting from a remote region in the periphery of the network to a more intermediate position. This paper aims to analyze the changing level of peripherality and remoteness of the Southern African container port system as part of the global container shipping network. The central hypothesis is that Southern Africa has moved from a remote shipping region to a more central shipping region in the global network. The methodology consists of the calculation of network measures for Southern African ports. The changing geographical distribution of flows among the main container ports in South Africa, Namibia, Mozambique, Mauritius and Madagascar will also be explored in terms of their respective shipping services, port calling patterns, market structure (in terms of the number of active carriers) and the up-scaling of vessel and port capacity. The overall result is a mapped port hierarchical structure with a clear indication of the shifted maritime centrality of Southern African ports from 1996 to the present decade.     

Possibility of implementation and environmental benefits of high-voltage power supply in developing countries,example of Croatia

One of the significant environmental aspects of transport and cargo manipulation in ports is air pollution. Coupled with other industrial sources, port traffic and operations can cause exceedances of environmental limit values and thus increase the risk of adverse biological effects including toxicity to humans. The proposed paper will describe the main characteristics of the on-shore high-voltage power supply and will discuss the extent to which the implementation of this technology is justified with respect to environmental protection, development of sustainable transport and the protection of human health. The paper suggests implementing on-shore high-voltage power supply with the aim of securing a sustainable development of world ports and minimizing their harmful effects to the environment, taking into consideration the economic aspects. After analysing the results, this technology provides a wider perspective for its future implementation into Croatian ports. The paper will assess the possible environmental effects of implementing this new technology into Croatian ports.     

Putting adaptive capacity into the context of people’s lives: a case study of two flood-prone communities in Puerto Rico

Recent developments in the vulnerability literature have contested the use of technical solutions as the sole adaptive strategies to reduce natural hazard impact; this literature emphasizes the need to attend to the wider everyday risks to which people are exposed and that aggravate hazard vulnerability. Using a case study of two flood-prone communities in Puerto Rico, this article supports and enhances that literature by placing floods within a wider context of other risks and determining how everyday risks influence people’s perceptions of and capacity to adapt to floods. Participatory methods are used to elicit the everyday risks that concern community members. The analysis reveals that participants perceive floods as one of their risks, but they see them as neither the most important nor most severe risk in their lives. Instead, they find other concerns—health conditions, family well-being, economic factors, and land tenure—more pressing. These competing risks limit adaptive capacity and increase vulnerability to natural hazards. The results suggest that addressing these multiple risks, mainstreaming flood management and adaptation into the wider context of people’s general well being, and increasing risk perception will strengthen adaptive capacity to present and future floods.     

Rethinking the relationships of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation from a disaster risk perspective

Vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation are three fundamentally inter-related concepts among such research communities as global environmental/climatic change, social–ecological and disaster risk science. However, their mutual relationships are still unclear so far particularly in the field of disaster risk reduction, which to some extent blocks the reasonable risk analysis and scientific decision making. This paper performed a brief overview on the basic definitions and evolution processes of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation, and tentatively categorized past diverse thoughts of their relationships into three modalities, such as, vulnerability preference, resilience preference, and overlapped relationships. From a “hit-damage-recovery-learning cycle” insight and based on an empirical case study, we put forward two conceptual frameworks to address the relationships of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation within the disaster risk domain, and we further discussed their broader implications in terms of disaster risk management and social–ecological sustainability. In an attempt to bring together the analytical frameworks of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation, this study indicates that a sustainable adaptation strategy to the unavoidable disasters or changes should not only seek to reduce the vulnerability of a social–ecological system, but also to foster its resilience and adaptive capacity to future uncertainties and potential risks.     

The extreme weather risk indicators (EWRI) for the European transport system

The European 7th Framework Programme project Extreme Weather impacts on European Networks of Transport devised a holistic analysis of extreme weather risks for the transport system. The analysis provided an overview of extreme weather risks, or a risk panorama. The risk panorama was built on a probabilistic approach to extreme weather phenomena occurrences and on vulnerability analysis based on selected macro-level economic and transport system indicators of the member states of EU-27. The panorama covers all transport modes and views infrastructure-related risks, time delay risks, and accidents risks. In addition to climatic circumstances, the devised risk indicator is also dependent on regional circumstances, such as population and transport density and income level. This paper describes the construct and application of an extreme weather risk indicator (EWRI). EWRIs are counted for each country and each transport mode separately. Furthermore, this paper also presents the most significant extreme weather events in different parts of Europe and on the transport modes they affect the most.     

Identification of weather trends for use as a component of risk management for port operations

Efficiency in modern shipping must not come at the expense of undertaking avoidable risks. The complexity of most activities in shipping requires a cooperative effort made by specialists to comprehend the uncertainties of risk and to seek measures for its reduction. Such an effort, however, must not hinder operations but aim at promoting productivity by addressing those factors that have a negative effect on it. This imperative need to deal with the problems of risk led to the development of a series of risk-related disciplines. Identifying the factors that create hazards and finding an effective way of minimizing them, whenever possible, leads to smoother operations, better time frames and, eventually, lower costs. One of the factors that can generate risks and reduce productivity in maritime-related operations is weather. Like any other factor that bears uncertainties and risks, weather hampers actual port operations (such as the loading/unloading of goods and passengers), but it also leads to problems for a whole chain of upstream and downstream industries. In this study, an attempt is made to identify and register hazardous weather trends in the Port of Limassol (used as a case study for Mediterranean ports). An up-to-date picture of the prevailing weather conditions in the area is presented with the aim to provide vital information for risk assessment purposes, both in the short and in the long term.     

Comprehensive evaluation of urban flood-bearing risks based on combined compound fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model

The extreme precipitation events caused by climate change and the rapid development of urbanization have brought hidden flood risks to the cities. This paper comprehensively considered two major factors of vulnerability of urban flood-bearing and disaster prevention and mitigation (DPAM) capacity and built a comprehensive evaluation index system for urban flood-bearing risks. Secondly, a combined model consisted of composite fuzzy matter-element and entropy weight model was constructed to calculate the comprehensive risk indicator. Finally, the Zhengzhou City was taken as an example, the comprehensive indices of urban flood-bearing risk from 2006 to 2015 were evaluated. The results showed that the comprehensive risk of Zhengzhou City was generally on a slow upward trend, from II level (moderate-risk) in 2006 to III level (secondary high-risk) in 2015, which was mainly due to the mismatch between the rapid development of urbanization and the slow improvement of DPAM capabilities. This paper is expected to provide scientific reference and technical support for urban flood disaster prevention and sponge city construction.

     

The city and its port—an economic appraisal

Following a brief examination of the role of ports as foci for industrial and urban development, this paper discusses four major changes—the scale of international trade, structural changes in port activities, port industrialization, and traffic origin and destination—which are acting to alter the relationship between ports and their urban areas. Attention is then focused on the redevelopment of docklands and the need to inform public and political opinion of the importance of port activities to the development of local, regional and national economies. The use of economic impact studies to highlight the multiplier effects of port activities is discussed.     

Exploring multicriteria flood vulnerability by integrating economic,social and ecological dimensions of flood risk and coping capacity: from a starting point view towards an end point view of vulnerability

In this paper, we present an approach to modelling multicriteria flood vulnerability which integrates the economic, social and ecological dimension of risk and coping capacity. We start with an existing multicriteria risk mapping approach. The term risk is used here in a way that could be called a starting point view, looking at vulnerability without considering coping capacities. We extend this approach by a multicriteria modelling of coping capacities towards an end point view of vulnerability. In doing so, we explore a way to differentiate coping capacity from flood risk in each of the dimensions of vulnerability. The approach is tested in an urban case study, the city of Leipzig, Germany. Our results show that it is possible to map multicriteria risks as well as coping capacities and relate them in a simple way. However, a detailed calculation of end point vulnerability would require more detailed knowledge on the causal relationships between risk and coping capacity criteria and their relative importance.     

Towards management of coastal erosion problems and human structure impacts using GIS tools: case study in Ragusa Province, Southern Sicily, Italy

A geomorphologic approach, combined with GIS spatial analysis, was used to investigate a 90-km long coastal sector in Southern Sicily, Italy, affected by important erosive processes. Applied methodology allowed the creation of a database involving a range of coastal characteristics thereby providing helpful information on coastal processes and general sediment circulation patterns. Coastal erosion, mainly linked to the construction of ports and harbours, has been locally mitigated by the construction of solid structures which themselves generate significant environmental stress in downdrift areas. In recent times, several nourishment projects have been planned to solve existing erosive problems, yet there is still a lack of a general erosion management plan based on the installation of port and harbour by-passing systems and including the phasing out of current beach cleaning and port maintenance procedures that produce a great quantity of sediments.     

Disaster risk management in agriculture: tragedies of the smallholders

Agriculture sector is exposed to a variety of risks and uncertainties which can lead to sizeable losses in crop yields and alter farm incomes. Risk management is, therefore, an essential element of the overall farm management process. Farmers have number of options in managing farm risks; however, smallholders, due to their small operations and limited financial capabilities, find it difficult to adopt sophisticated risk management strategies to overcome yield and income instabilities at farm level. This study is, therefore, designed to investigate the enabling environment for small farmers to manage climatic risks at farm level. A total of 330 sampled respondents from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan are randomly selected for the study using multistage sampling technique. Analysis of variance technique is employed to compare the risk management adoption decision of small, medium and large farmers. A post hoc analysis is also performed to highlight the difference in means and the magnitude of differences. The results indicate that smallholders have significantly lower access to credit (both formal and informal), formal information sources along with significantly higher perceptions of pest and diseases. Smallholders are also at the tail end in the adoption of precautionary savings and agricultural credit to manage climatic risk at farm level. The study urges for risk management policies particularly in favor of the small farmers and intervention in the existing information and credit provision programs to facilitate smallholders in managing farm risks.     

人地耦合系统脆弱性研究进展

当前在以人地耦合系统为中心的气候变化、生态风险和可持续管理等研究中,脆弱性理论及其评价已成为地理学及很多相关学科的研究热点,其涵义不断泛化,内容日渐扩展。不同学科背景的学者对脆弱性解释存在很大分歧,这阻碍了研究的科学化,也影响研究成果的实践意义,迫切需要一个可行的框架来系统整合其理论和实践的研究。从审视脆弱性的理论沿革出发,分析其在国内外可持续发展和全球变化领域的应用现状,总结出分歧的主要原因是对相关概念关系的不理解以及研究时空尺度和学科视角的不明确。基于对脆弱性评价的整合框架的研究现状,选取VSD模型作为统领具体的脆弱性评价的依据。VSD模型的优势在于:①有明确的定义,将脆弱性分解为暴露程度、敏感性和适应潜力3个维度;②用方面层—指标层—参数层逐级递进、细化的方式组织评价数据;③有规范评价流程的8个步骤。最后以我国典型的干旱区为例,运用VSD模型构建了示例区脆弱性评价的指标和参数。     

Assessment of coastal communities’ vulnerability to floods using indicator-based approach: a case study of Greater Accra Metropolitan Area,Ghana

Coastal towns along the coast of Africa are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as flooding and sea level rise. Yet, because coastal conditions in many parts of the region are poorly understood, knowledge on which population groups are at the most risk is less known, particularly in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) of Ghana, where the capital city Accra is located. Without adequate information about the risk levels and why, the implementation of locally appropriate adaptation plans may be less effective. This study enriches our understanding of the levels of flood risks along the coast of GAMA and contributes knowledge to improve understanding of place-specific adaptation plans. The study uses data from a 300-household survey, stakeholder meetings, and interviews with local community leaders to construct an integrated vulnerability index. The index includes seven components made up of: dwelling type; house and house environment; household socioeconomic characteristics; experience and perception of flood risk; household and community flood adaptation strategies; house location, and physical characteristics. Our findings show that exposure to floods, particularly from local flash floods is relatively high in all communities. However, significant differences in sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the communities were observed due to differences in location, socioeconomic characteristics, and perception of risks to flooding and sea level rise. The complexity of factors involved in the determination of local-level vulnerability requires that the implementation of adaptation strategies needs to involve cross-sectorial partnerships, involving local communities, in building a comprehensive multi-risk adaptation strategy.     

A tale of Asia’s world ports: The spatial evolution in global hub port cities

Globalization and transport revolutions, logistics integration, and the consequent expansion of port area and hinterland in the maritime industry have redefined the functional role of ports in supply chains and have generated a new pattern of freight distribution. This phenomenon again requires a new approach towards port development and related urban planning. Such changes have inevitably influenced the spatial structure of hub port cities. As existing models on spatial and functional evolution of ports and cities are mainly derived from European and American cases, this paper attempts to introduce evidence from an Asian perspective, focusing on the particular case of global hub port cities such as Hong Kong and Singapore.     

基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析

风险分析是降低边坡灾害损失的有效途径。以地理信息系统（Arcview GIS）为二次开发平台,建立边坡风险评估系统。该系统通过建立边坡的三维地质信息模型,根据模型的物理力学参数等属性数据,运用Monte-Carlo法求出三维边坡的失效概率,在易损性分析的基础上,计算边坡失稳的经济风险和生命风险。实例分析表明,基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析可为相关风险决策提供科学依据     

An integrated indicator framework for spatial assessment of industrial and social vulnerability to indirect disaster losses

The focus of this study is on multi-dimensional vulnerability of regions to indirect disaster losses. An integrated indicator framework has been developed which captures the multi-layered vulnerability drivers in industrial production systems and also accounts for the social fragilities and coping capacities in communities. By combining industrial vulnerability and social vulnerability spatially, and proposing a methodology to account between their interactions, the total vulnerability to indirect risks of regions is revealed. The outcome of the framework is a ranking of industrial sectors and geographic areas according to their vulnerability against indirect losses. It answers the question which of the two affected regions is in a better position to cope with indirect consequences in a disaster. Indicators provide a flexible framework for the comparison and integration of different data types and allow the combination of social as well as economic aspects. Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) methodology was applied to analyze direct and indirect dependencies within the selected social and industrial vulnerability indicators. The hierarchical indicator system has been implemented in a software system based on multi-criteria decision theory (MCDA) with an interactive interface to take into account a broader range of expert judgement. The methodology was applied in a case study in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg in Germany for 16 different industrial sectors. The approach helps to identify particular vulnerable processes and points out where mitigation measures could be implemented most effectively.     

New ports as nodes for industrial and urban development: The cases of Richards Bay and Saldanha in South Africa

Richards Bay and Saldanha were officially opened in 1976 as new deep water ports, primarily for the export of coal and iron ore respectively. The heavy investment in both infrastructure and industrial development by the South African government led to considerable urban and industrial growth in Richards Bay, whereas the port of Saldanha was initiated by one big concern and failed to produce a far reaching multiplier effect. The development of ports as growth centres has to be considered in terms of the location relative to the Pretoria-Witwatersrand-Vereeniging complex, which dominates the economy of the subcontinent, and within the context of the official decentralisation-growth point policy.     

Carcinogenic risk evaluation for human health risk assessment from soils contaminated with heavy metals

Human activities have progressively increased in recent years. Consequently, significant environment deterioration resulted. Soils have a particularly varied vulnerability to heavy metal pollution, especially in the vicinity of industrial areas. Heavy metal contamination of soil may induce risks and hazards to humans and the ecosystem, while toxic metals in soil can severely inhibit the biodegradation of organic contaminants. This paper is focused on human health risk assessment from extremely contaminated soil with heavy metals, mainly with carcinogenic elements. The study refers to an agricultural area in the vicinity of an old metallurgical processing industrial facility. The contaminants evaluated in the present paper are beryllium (Be), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni) and lead (Pb). Contamination level is pointed out through laboratory analysis results of soil samples taken from 0–0.2 m, 0.2–0.4 m soil layers and up to 2.1 m soil depth. Some heavy metal concentrations (Cd, Cr and Pb) exceed the intervention thresholds for sensitive areas, as they are stipulated in the national regulation in Romania. The identified average concentration levels of Cd, Cr^VI and Pb in the first layer of the investigated land are 23.83, 7.71 and 704.22 mg/kg_d.w, respectively. The results show that the potential risk of human health is relevant (higher than the acceptable one after World Health Organization) and a possible solution for the remediation should become a major concern for the investigated area.