Simulation of physical and socioeconomic factors of vulnerability to cyclones and storm surges using GIS: a case study

The objective of the present study is to simulate the physical and socioeconomic factors of human vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges at the household level in existing and changing status of households. The primary data were collected from a cyclone prone coastal area in Bangladesh, through structured questionnaire and GPS survey, key informants interviews and field observations. In order to simulate the physical and socioeconomic factors geographical information systems based Structured Query Language (SQL) query has been used. The study simulated the physical and socioeconomic factors of human vulnerability to tropical cyclones and storm surges on the basis of collected data through pre-designed SQL query. The study found the number of most vulnerable households under existing conditions and how much it will be afterward of a favourable or adverse change of the factors of vulnerability associated with households. The major findings of the study unveil that the socioeconomic and physical factors of human vulnerability have important function to determine the household’s level of vulnerability to the cyclone induced disaster. It has been demonstrated that the degree of vulnerability of households is changed with its physical and socioeconomic status. This study provides a conceptual model for assessing and simulating vulnerability to other natural hazards like floods, droughts, riverbank erosions and so forth. This study highlights that the households’ intrinsic vulnerable conditions are responsible for its defencelessness to the hazards and the reduction of vulnerability is the first measure of integrated and sustainable disaster management in the coastal Bangladesh.     

Multi-topographical landscape: comparative vulnerability of climate-induced disaster-prone rural area of Pakistan

Pakistan, being an agro-based economy, is considered most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The country is susceptible to many natural catastrophes and climate-induced events due to intra-geographical and intra-topographical disparities. This paper is an attempt to measure the relative vulnerability of diverse topographies in rural areas of Pakistan using vulnerability and capacity index tool. The results are based on the findings of primary survey data (350 households from 17 rural communities). Accordingly, and as expected, the key relative differences are attributed to topographical conditions besides the basic quandary of rural areas of Pakistan. The topographical attributes are largely linked to the nature of hazards and relative impacts. While the other aspects of vulnerability in all topographies stem out of inappropriate infrastructure, low education, and institutional factors. The absence of multi-sectoral and productive economic opportunities also poses an adverse impact on the resilience of households in rural areas. The women and households headed by females are found relatively more vulnerable than male-headed households.

     

A social justice framing of climate change discourse and policy: Adaptation,resilience and vulnerability in a Jamaican agricultural landscape

It is now widely recognized that climate change is likely to have detrimental impacts across the Caribbean region, with the burden likely to fall disproportionately on the most vulnerable segments of society. It is therefore an appropriate time to ask whether the frameworks that lie behind climate change discourse and policy are consistent with the demands of social and environmental justice. In this paper, we use climate justice as a lens for evaluating three prominent frameworks for addressing climate change, those of adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability. Each of these discursive frameworks, we argue, can contribute to our understanding of climate change, but they do not all incorporate justice concerns to the same degree. In order to illustrate this, we examine the justice implications of using each of the three frameworks to assess a case study of agricultural transformation in Southwestern Jamaica. Farmers in this region have adapted to changing climate conditions in a variety of ways, including the use of new agricultural technology. The ability of many farmers to take advantage of such innovations, however, is constrained by the underlying landscape of vulnerability within the region. After interpreting this example from the perspectives of adaptation, resilience and vulnerability, we conclude that all three paradigms are capable of calling attention to climate justice issues, but only in the vulnerability perspective are such issues intrinsic. We believe, therefore, that a greater attention to vulnerability within Caribbean climate policy holds the potential to advance the goals of climate justice within the region.     

Assessment of coastal communities’ vulnerability to floods using indicator-based approach: a case study of Greater Accra Metropolitan Area,Ghana

Coastal towns along the coast of Africa are among the most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as flooding and sea level rise. Yet, because coastal conditions in many parts of the region are poorly understood, knowledge on which population groups are at the most risk is less known, particularly in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA) of Ghana, where the capital city Accra is located. Without adequate information about the risk levels and why, the implementation of locally appropriate adaptation plans may be less effective. This study enriches our understanding of the levels of flood risks along the coast of GAMA and contributes knowledge to improve understanding of place-specific adaptation plans. The study uses data from a 300-household survey, stakeholder meetings, and interviews with local community leaders to construct an integrated vulnerability index. The index includes seven components made up of: dwelling type; house and house environment; household socioeconomic characteristics; experience and perception of flood risk; household and community flood adaptation strategies; house location, and physical characteristics. Our findings show that exposure to floods, particularly from local flash floods is relatively high in all communities. However, significant differences in sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the communities were observed due to differences in location, socioeconomic characteristics, and perception of risks to flooding and sea level rise. The complexity of factors involved in the determination of local-level vulnerability requires that the implementation of adaptation strategies needs to involve cross-sectorial partnerships, involving local communities, in building a comprehensive multi-risk adaptation strategy.     

气候变化适应对策的评价方法和工具

气候变化影响和适应对策方法评估的研究目的主要是建立和应用先进有效的分析工具和评价方法对气候变化脆弱性和适应对策进行科学评估. 因此需要了解当前已经在自然资源和环境研究中广泛使用的决策分析工具,掌握和了解各种适应对策评估工具的关键特性及其优缺点. 首先介绍各种有关适应对策的定义及两大类适应评估方法途径, 同时举例介绍不同方法在气候变化影响和适应评估研究中的应用. 常规的适应对策评估分析主要以政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)气候变化影响和适应对策评估技术指南中的方法工具为代表, 另一种适应对策研究则致力于改善各种对气候变化敏感系统的适应能力和复原能力. 文中对各种适应对策评估方法和工具进行了介绍和讨论,并提出气候变化适应研究的新方向.     

中国冻土对气候变化的脆弱性

冻土的脆弱性是指冻土对气候变化的脆弱性,是冻土易受气候变化,尤其是温度变化不利影响的程度. 研究冻土对气候变化的脆弱性是提高对自然生态系统、工程系统、生态-社会-经济系统对冻土变化影响的脆弱性的认知,科学适应冻土变化诸种影响的前提和基础. 基于科学性与实际相结合的原则、全面性与主导性原则、可操作性原则,以暴露度、敏感性与适应能力为标准,遴选构建了我国冻土脆弱性评价指标体系. 借助RS与GIS技术平台,使用空间主成分方法,构建了冻土脆弱性指数模型,在区域尺度上综合评价了冻土的脆弱性. 依据自然分类法,将冻土脆弱性分为潜在脆弱、轻度脆弱、中度脆弱、强度脆弱与极强度脆弱5级. 结果表明：总体上我国冻土以中度脆弱为主,但青藏高原多年冻土对气候变化尤为脆弱;冻土脆弱性具有显著的地域分布特点,青藏高原、西部高山、东北多年冻土区脆弱性相对较高,季节冻土区相对较低. 与季节冻土相比,多年冻土对气候变化更脆弱. 在当前升温幅度条件下,冻土脆弱程度主要取决于冻土的地形暴露与冻土对气候变化的适应能力.     

冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系

冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究是以探索冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念为前提和基础,以冰冻圈变化的自然影响为链接点,以社会经济影响研究为突破,以脆弱性研究为桥梁与纽带,以应对与适应冰冻圈变化影响、风险为目的的冰冻圈科学领域的新兴研究方向。探讨了冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性概念,并以影响—脆弱性—适应为主线,针对冰冻圈变化的社会经济影响研究、脆弱性研究、适应研究内容及其关键科学问题、脆弱性评估模型、尺度问题进行了较为详细的阐述,初步搭建了中国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系。基于冰冻圈要素的多样性、变化影响的复杂性与显著的区域差异性,从2个梯度勾绘了冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究格局与空间布局。中国冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究除深化冰冻圈变化的影响与脆弱性研究之外,应加强不同利益相关者协同设计、共同参与的冰冻圈变化适应应用研究,并关注冰冻圈灾害风险、渐变风险研究。     

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.

     

Poverty, vulnerability and the impact of flooding in the Limpopo Province, South Africa

The article evaluates household vulnerability after the 2000 flood in two poor communities of the Limpopo Province, South Africa. The study analyses the forms of vulnerability which disasters such as floods present. Using data gathered from a survey of households, the study presents the impacts, coping and adapting strategies of households after the 2000 flood. The article argues that beyond the concern over socio-economic circumstances as the major determinant of household vulnerability, the management of the disaster can serve to perpetuate vulnerability.     

Déjà vu or something new? The adaptation concept in the climate change literature

This paper reflects on the resurgence and meaning of the adaptation concept in the current climate change literature. We explore the extent to which the early political economic critique of the adaptation concept has influenced how it is used in this literature. That is, has the current conceptualization been enriched by the political economic critique of the 1970s and 1980s and thus represent something new? Or is the concept used in a way today that echoes previous debates; that is, is this a déjà vu experience? To answer this question, we review the early political economic critique of the natural hazards school’s interpretations of vulnerability and adaptation. We then examine the revival of the adaptation concept in the climate change literature and discuss its main interpretations. For the purposes of this paper, the climate change literature encompasses the four IPCC reports and adaptation-focused articles in four scholarly journals: Global Environmental Change, Climatic Change, Climate and Development, and Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Our content analysis shows the dominance (70%) of “adjustment adaptation” approaches, which view climate impacts as the main source of vulnerability. A much smaller percentage (3%) of articles focus on the social roots of vulnerability and the necessity for political–economic change to achieve “transformative adaptation.” A larger share (27%) locates risk in both society and the biophysical hazard. It promotes “reformist adaptation,” typically through “development,” to reduce vulnerability within the prevailing system. We conclude with a discussion of continuity and change in the conceptualization of adaptation, and point to new research directions.     

Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN

Climate change alters global food systems, especially agriculture and fisheries—significant aspects of the livelihoods and food security of populations. The 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report identified Southeast Asia as the most vulnerable coastal region in the world, and highlighted the potential distribution of impacts and risks of climate change in the region. While climate hazards may differ across geographical regions, the impact of climate extremes on food production will affect marginal farmers, fishers and poor urban consumers disproportionately, as they have limited capacities to adapt to and recover from extreme weather events. Governments and other stakeholders need to respond to climate extremes and incorporate adaptation into national development plans. Unfortunately, there is still limited peer-review publication on the subject matter. This paper presents some findings from research on observed and projected loss and damage inflicted by climate extremes on agricultural crops in Southeast Asia.     

Risk,perception and adaptation to climate change: evidence from arid region,India

The paper contributes to the growing literature highlighting the significance of assessing risk and vulnerability, micro-level perceptions and adaptation decision-making in building resilience of farm communities to climate change in dryland region of India. To select a region for grassroots enquiry, spatial differential in risk to climate change was assessed in Rajasthan, using IPCC AR5 framework. Among the highly vulnerable and risky districts, Bikaner district was selected for elicitation of micro-level imperatives. Rising atmospheric temperature, inter-seasonal displacements of rainfall and recurrence of extreme events were perceived by the farmers resulting in resource degradation, production risks and erosion of households’ socio-economic dynamics. As risk preventive measures, suitable adjustment in agricultural practices, natural resource management, shift to off-farm activities and other relief measures were adopted by the farmers. Farmer’s choice of adaptation was influenced by several climatic, socio-economic and infrastructural & institutional factors in varying degree. Moreover, several financial, economic, infrastructural and informational bottlenecks to adaptations were reported during household survey and FGDs. The results suggest that capturing grassroots evidence is crucial for directing locally tailored adaptation strategies, along with the improving deficiencies in the developmental pathways for climate-resilient agriculture.

     

We are not all the same!: Comparative climate change vulnerabilities among fishers in Old Harbour Bay,Jamaica

There is a general consensus that Small Island Developing States are among the most vulnerable to experience climate injustices. Vulnerability studies of climate change effects on communities have often focused on differences between communities given these climate injustices. However, there is a need to also focus on vulnerability within communities, referred to here as comparative vulnerabilities. Climate justice therefore becomes even more important with more focused attention given to the nuances within groups that fall within the vulnerable category. This article examines comparative vulnerabilities for the fishing community in Jamaica. A survey of 241 fishers from Old Harbour Bay, the largest fishing village in Jamaica, was conducted to examine the level of vulnerability of different fishers to climate change. A vulnerability index was constructed for the community and then comparative vulnerabilities were determined based on socio-demographic characteristics. Overall for the sample 46.9% of respondents would be considered as experiencing a comparatively high level of vulnerability to climate change. Climate change vulnerability was influenced by a number of socio-demographic variables with unique profiles emerging for groups that can be ranked as low, moderate, and high vulnerability. The paper therefore argues that within vulnerable populations there are comparative vulnerabilities based on economic factors and social capital, which must be taken into consideration for adaptation strategies to be implemented. Given these comparative vulnerabilities a more targeted approach to coping and adaptation strategies can then be taken. This will assist in building resilience of these communities that must now adjust to a new normal with climate change effects currently occurring.     

冰冻圈变化对经济社会系统的综合影响及其适应性管理策略

冰冻圈是气候系统影响最直接和最敏感的圈层。在全球变化背景下,冰冻圈变化与生物圈、岩石圈、水圈、大气圈、人类圈之间的相互作用日趋加剧。特别地,冰冻圈快速变化对其影响区经济社会系统产生了广泛而深刻的负面影响,甚至危及人类福祉、经济社会系统的健康、和谐、持续发展。鉴于冰冻圈区位劣势及其较为落后的经济水平,其应对冰冻圈变化的能力极为有限。目前,适应仍然是冰冻圈应对气候变化的主要途径。冰冻圈变化对经济社会系统的综合影响分析是适应冰冻圈快速变化的基础,其适应性管理战略则是减轻冰冻圈快速变化不利影响、降低自然和经济社会系统防御其不利影响脆弱性的最终目标。     

Climate change and the resilient society: utopia or realistic option for German regions?

For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively ‘safe’, but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia.     

Climate change and the resilient society: utopia or realistic option for German regions?

For the last five years, climate change has been increasingly perceived as a challenge for regional development. Compared to other nations, Germany is relatively ‘safe’, but the German regions are prone to different impacts of climate change; some of them might be positive but most will be negative in the long run. Strategic concepts are therefore needed to reduce the negative impacts and use the potential positive effects. Due to enforced research funding, several German regions are currently developing adaptation strategies within transdisciplinary research projects. Based on a comparative case study analysis of three of these projects, this paper looks for the benefits of resilience thinking in the context of climate change adaptation. The analysis shows that the case study regions try to increase their resilience to climate change by strengthening the properties of (1) resistance, (2) recovery and (3) creativity. But the discussion also reveals that only parts, certain sectors or subjects, of the region can increase their distinct resilience. Regional stakeholder networks as established within the case study regions can make a significant contribution to linking different sectors and levels of action. Therefore, this approach seems to be applicable for integrating the need for adaptation within the whole region. It is believed that the regionalized communication of potential climate change impacts raises awareness for climate change adaptation, helps to develop appropriate adaptation measures and encourages action. Hence, different approaches can indeed lead to more resilient structures. But the resilient society at regional level remains utopia.     

Imagining resilience: situating perceptions and emotions about climate change on Kamchatka, Russia

Global environmental change shapes places and people through ongoing transformation of ecological, socioeconomic, political, and cultural phenomena. One region construed as highly vulnerable to global environmental change, particularly anthropogenic climate change, is the North. Recent research about human communities in Western arctic and subarctic places revolve around vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, focusing on loss of the ability to pursue traditional livelihoods, threats to ecosystems sustaining human communities and the need to adapt to new environmental regimes. Fewer studies address Russia and the perceptions and emotions related to climate change. To understand how people of the Russian North engage with climate change, I conducted ethnographic research in two rural and remote communities in subarctic alpine Kamchatka, Russia in 2009–2010. Local narratives about climate change largely reflect climate skepticism, and anthropogenic climate change is rejected as explaining environmental changes because: (1) climate is considered as naturally and cyclically changing, (2) humans are not considered a large enough force to alter natural climate cycles, (3) environmental problems are solvable with technology and (4) there is a lack of knowledge about climate change science. Thus, perceptions and emotions about transformation focus on other realms—socioeconomic, political, cultural—that are perceived as more critical to everyday life in the present and near future. Here, I describe these narratives and place the regional understanding of climate change in greater context to explain resistance to imagining environmental transformations due to climate change.     

气候变化影响下水资源脆弱性评估方法及其应用

气候变化和人类活动影响下的水资源脆弱性评价,是将气候变化影响纳入水资源规划管理、提出缓解气候变化不利影响的适应性对策的重要科学依据。针对与气候变化影响的水资源系统的敏感性和抗压性相联系的脆弱性与适应性问题,提出变化环境下水资源脆弱性评估理论体系和一般性公式。进一步,以水资源供需安全为出发点,采用温度、降雨双参数弹性系数和有水资源基础,直观、简单的水资源关键性指标体系方法,提出气候变化和人类活动背景下水资源脆弱性评估模型。将模型应用于缺水最严重的海河流域,评价了现状和未来情境下流域水资源的脆弱性情况。结果表明:整体上海河流域水资源脆弱性偏高,且平原区较山区更脆弱;气候因素对流域水资源的脆弱性影响明显,未来如不采取措施,海河流域的水资源脆弱性将进一步加重。     

News coverage of drought impacts and vulnerability in the US Carolinas, 1998–2007

Regional newspaper coverage from 1998 to 2007 is examined to expand our understanding of the complexity of drought impacts and vulnerability in the Carolinas. Coverage at the height of two droughts reports drought effects extending beyond first-order impacts on broadly recognized sectors, such as agriculture, livestock, and water supplies to recreation and tourism and impacts on businesses, manufacturing, and households. Impacts were accompanied by social controversies with near-term and long-term planning and development implications. Key concepts in vulnerability analysis were used to structure the review of vulnerability reporting. The coverage of differential vulnerability, although limited, identified individual, household, local, and cross-scale factors that influenced the severity of impacts. Articles also highlighted additional interacting stresses in some sectors contributing to the severity of impacts experienced. An elaborated understanding of drought impacts and vulnerabilities is a necessary, early step in advancing efforts to developing a risk-based drought management approach.