Equatorial ionospheric response to isolated auroral substorms over a solar cycle (1980-85): evidence of longitudinal anomaly

The equatorial ionospheric response to 228 isolated, rapid-onset auroral substorms (as defined from the auroral electrojet index AE) was found from enhancements of the virtual (minimum) height of the F-region (h′F) in the declining phase of a solar cycle (1980-85). The responses, found for three longitudinal sectors at the equator: Africa (Ouagadougou and Dakar), Asia (Manila) and America (Huancayo), were compared with the response close to the auroral source region at Yakutsk (northern Siberia). The auroral substorm onsets were centered at 17 and 15 UT at sunspot maximum (1980-82) and minimum (1983-85), preceding by 3–5 h the period of post-sunset height rise in the African sector whereas other sectors were in the early afternoon (Huancayo) and morning (Manila). The African response, particularly at Ouagadougou, was distinctly different from other sectors. In the sunspot maximum years (1980-81) the auroral surges were followed after about 3 h by a sharp depression (h′F<0) in the post-sunset height rise, with a period of little or no response (h′F=0) in 1982. A response polarity reversal (h′F>0) was noted in this sector for sunspot minimum (1983-85) when large h′F enhancements were observed at the sunset region. The responses in the Asian and American sector were positive except for a case in Huancayo when response was negative, following an auroral surge before the sunset at this station. It appears that the aurorally generated large-scale travelling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs), which first cause positive height enhancements in a sub-auroral location (Yakutsk), subsequently affect the unstable post-sunset ionosphere in the equatorial Africa.     

The ionospheric response to flux transfer events: the first few minutes

We utilise high-time resolution measurements from the PACE HF radar at Halley, Antarctica to explore the evolution of the ionospheric response during the first few minutes after enhanced reconnection occurs at the magnetopause. We show that the plasma velocity increases associated with flux transfer events (FTEs) occur first 100–200 km equatorward of the region to which magnetosheath (cusp) precipitation maps to the ionosphere. We suggest that these velocity variations start near the ionospheric footprint of the boundary between open and closed magnetic field lines. We show that these velocity variations have rise times 100 s and fall times of 10 s. When these velocity transients reach the latitude of the cusp precipitation, sometimes the equatorward boundary of the precipitation begins to move equatorward, the expected and previously reported ionospheric signature of enhanced reconnection. A hypothesis is proposed to explain the velocity variations. It involves the rapid outflow of magnetospheric electrons into the magnetosheath along the most recently reconnected field lines. Several predictions are made arising from the proposed explanation which could be tested with ground-based and space-based observations.     

Longitudinal (UT) effect in the onset of auroral disturbances over two solar cycles as deduced from the AE-index

Statistical study on the universal time variations in the mean hourly auroral electrojet index (AE-index) has been undertaken for a 21 y period over two solar cycles (1957–1968 and 1978–1986). The analysis, applied to isolated auroral substorm onsets (inferred from rapid variations in the AE-index) and to the bulk of the AE data, indicates that the maximum in auroral activity is largely confined to 09–18 UT, with a distinct minimum at 03–06 UT. The diurnal effect was clearly present throughout all seasons in the first cycle but was mainly limited to northern winter in the second cycle. Severe storms (AE > 1000 nT) tended to occur between 9–18 UT irrespective of the seasons whereas all larger magnetic disturbances (AE > 500 nT) tended to occur in this time interval mostly in winter. On the whole the diurnal trend was strong in winter, intermediate at equinox and weak in summer. The implication of this study is that Eastern Siberia, Japan and Australia are mostly at night, during the period of maximum auroral activity whereas Europe and Eastern America are then mostly at daytime. The minimum of auroral activity coincides with near-midnight conditions in Eastern America. It appears that the diurnal UT distribution in the AE-index reflects a diurnal change between interplanetary magnetic field orientation and the Earths magnetic dipole inclination.     

On the sensitivity of total electron content (TEC) to upper atmospheric/ionospheric parameters

The total electron content (TEC) is a key ionospheric parameter for various space weather applications. Over the last decade an extensive database of TEC measurements has become available from both space- and ground-based observations, and these measurements have established the general morphology of the global TEC distributions. In particular, the TOPEX TEC measurements have shown strong longitudinal variations of TEC in addition to the observed day-to-day variabilities. To better understand the observed TEC variations and to better guide its modeling, we have studied the sensitivity of quiet-time TEC to the following key atmospheric and ionospheric parameters: neutral density, neutral wind, plasma temperatures, plasmaspheric flux, and the O⁺–O collision frequency. These parameters are often only roughly known and can cause large uncertainties in model results. For this study, we have developed a numerical mid-latitude ionospheric model, which solves the momentum and continuity equations for the O⁺ density and a simplified set of equations for the H⁺ density. To obtain TEC, the calculated ion densities have been integrated from the bottom altitude (100 km) to the altitude of the TOPEX satellite (1336 km). Our study shows that during the day the neutral wind and the neutral composition have the most important effect on TEC. In particular, the zonal component of the neutral wind can have a large effect on TEC in the southern hemisphere where the magnetic declination angle is large. During the night, most of the above-mentioned parameters can play a significant role in the TEC morphology, except for the plasma temperature, which has only a small effect on TEC. Finally, the TEC varies roughly linearly with respect to all of the parameters except for the neutral wind.     

On the performance of surface renewal analysis to estimate sensible heat flux over two growing rice fields under the influence of regional advection

High-frequency temperature data were recorded at one height and they were used in Surface Renewal (SR) analysis to estimate sensible heat flux during the full growing season of two rice fields located north–northeast of Colusa, CA (in the Sacramento Valley). One of the fields was seeded into a flooded paddy and the other was drill seeded before flooding. To minimize fetch requirements, the measurement height was selected to be close to the maximum expected canopy height. The roughness sub-layer depth was estimated to discriminate if the temperature data came from the inertial or roughness sub-layer. The equation to estimate the roughness sub-layer depth was derived by combining simple mixing-length theory, mixing-layer analogy, equations to account for stable atmospheric surface layer conditions, and semi-empirical canopy–architecture relationships. The potential for SR analysis as a method that operates in the full surface boundary layer was tested using data collected over growing vegetation at a site influenced by regional advection of sensible heat flux. The inputs used to estimate the sensible heat fluxes included air temperature sampled at 10 Hz, the mean and variance of the horizontal wind speed, the canopy height, and the plant area index for a given intermediate height of the canopy. Regardless of the stability conditions and measurement height above the canopy, sensible heat flux estimates using SR analysis gave results that were similar to those measured with the eddy covariance method. Under unstable cases, it was shown that the performance was sensitive to estimation of the roughness sub-layer depth. However, an expression was provided to select the crucial scale required for its estimation.     

Intercomparison of the total storage deficit index (TSDI) over two Canadian Prairie catchments

Retrieval of the terrestrial moisture storage dataset from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite remote sensing system is possible when the catchment of interest is of large spatial scale. These dataset are of paramount importance for the estimation of the total storage deficit index (TSDI), which enables the characterization of a particular drought event from the perspective of the terrestrial moisture storage over that catchment. Incidentally, the GRACE gravity signal over the 13,000 km² Upper Assiniboine River Basin on the drought-prone Canadian Prairie is so poor therefore making the computation of the total storage deficit index for this basin infeasible. Consequently, the estimation of the terrestrial moisture storage from other reliable sources becomes imperative in order to enable the computation of the TSDI over this basin.This study explores the utilization of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, a physically based, spatially distributed hydrologic model to simulate the total moisture storage over the Upper Assiniboine River Basin which was then employed in the estimation of the TSDI over this basin for subsequent characterization of the recent Prairie-wide drought. Interestingly, the temporal patterns in the computed TSDI from the VIC model reveal a strong resemblance with the same drought characterization undertaken over the larger adjacent Saskatchewan River Basin, which was accomplished utilizing terrestrial moisture storage from the GRACE-based approach. Additionally, these independent techniques employed in the characterization of the last Prairie drought over the two adjacently situated basins resulted in similar drought severity classification from the standpoint of the total moisture storage deficits over these basins. This study has therefore shown that in the computation of the total storage deficit index over small-scale catchments during anomalous climatic conditions that propagate extreme dryness through the terrestrial hydrologic systems, simulations of the total water storage from a structurally sound model such as the VIC model could be resourceful for the computation of the monthly total storage deficit index if no constraint is placed on the availability of accurate meteorological forcing.     

Anamolous ionospheric TEC variations prior to the Indonesian earthquake (M 7.1) of November 15, 2014

This paper investigates preearthquake ionospheric variations with the use of TEC of Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) and regional maps based on Precise Point Positioning (PPP) during the 7.1-M Indonesian earthquake that occurred on November 15, 2014. TEC maps corresponding to 10 days before to 4 days after the event were examined. In addition, a time series of TEC values according to the PPP maps were also evaluated. In addition to GIMs, it was possible to detect TEC variations with PPP maps. The results showed that ionospheric TEC decreased strikingly 4 days prior to the earthquake. This TEC variation was highly likely related to seismic activity.     

近200年来湖北涨渡湖对江湖联通变化的环境响应

江湖联通状况对湖泊生态系统有着重要影响,但是由于缺乏长期的生态水文监测数据,湖泊系统对其响应的过程与机理仍缺乏认识.本研究选择长江中下游地区典型湖泊——涨渡湖,结合该湖一沉积短柱的²¹⁰Pb、¹³⁷Cs年代测试,通过高分辨率的多指标分析(硅藻、元素地球化学和粒度),揭示近200年来湖泊生态系统对该湖与长江之间联通关系改变的响应过程.与历史文献记载一致,古湖沼学记录揭示出该湖与长江的联通状况经历了3个阶段.1)江湖联通期(1954年以前):该湖与长江自然相通,江湖水体交换频繁,丰富的贫营养浮游种Cyclotella bodanica表明该湖长期处于低营养及湖泊水位相对较高的状态.2)江湖隔绝期(1954 2005年):随着湖坝的兴建,江湖联通关系被隔绝,湖泊换水周期变长,透明度降低,喜好扰动环境的Aulacoseria granulata大量生长.相应地,富营养硅藻的增加、高TOC含量以及较高的沉积物TP、TN浓度表明,该湖营养水平逐渐升高.特别是近20年来,较高含量的富营养硅藻种——C.meneghinena、A.alpigena、Nitzschia palea、Surirella minuta和地球化学记录,包括TOC含量和沉积物TP、TN浓度,表明该湖富营养化程度加剧.3)江湖季节性联通期(2005年后):硅藻以附生种、底栖种为主,但仍有一定含量的富营养化属种,且TOC含量以及沉积物TP、TN浓度仍然保持较高水平,表明富营养程度有所缓解.古湖沼学和历史记录都揭示了自该湖与长江无连通后其生态状况的快速退化、重新联通后生态状况有所好转.因此,在长江中下游洪泛平原区,江湖关系的重新联通将是减轻湖泊生态压力的有效手段.     

Geomorphic monitoring and response to two dam removals: rivers Urumea and Leitzaran (Basque Country,Spain)

Dam removal has been demonstrated to be one of the most frequent and effective fluvial restoration actions but at most dam removals, especially of small dams, there has been little geomorphological monitoring. The results of the geomorphological monitoring implemented in two dams in the rivers Urumea and Leitzaran (northern Spain) are presented. The one from the River Urumea, originally 3.5 m high and impounding 500 m of river course, was removed instantaneously whereas that in the River Leitzaran, 12.5 m high, and impounding 1500 m of river course, is in its second phase of a four‐stage removal process. Changes in channel morphology, sediment size and mobility and river bed morphologies were assessed. The monitoring included several different techniques: topographical measurements of the channel, terrestrial laser scanner measurements of river bed and bars, sediment grain size and transport; all of them repeated in four (May, August, November 2011 and May 2012) and five (July and September 2013, April and August 2014 and June 2015) fieldwork campaigns in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively. Geomorphic responses of both dam removals are presented, and compared. Morphological channel adjustments occurred mainly shortly after dam removals, but with differences among the one removed instantaneously, that was immediate, whereas that conducted by stages took longer. Degradational processes were observed upstream of both dams (up to 1.2 m and 4 m in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively), but also aggradational processes (pool filling), upstream of Inturia Dam (2.85 m at least). Less evident aggradational processes were observed downstream of the dams (up to 0.37 m and 0.50 m in the River Urumea and River Leitzaran, respectively). Flood events, especially a 100 year flood registered during the monitoring period of Mendaraz Dam removal, reactivated geomorphological processes as incision and bank erosion, whereas longitudinal profile recovery, grain‐size sorting and upstream erosion took longer. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Chlorobiphenyls in the blubber of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) from the UK: Levels and trends 1991-2005

Harbour porpoises sampled within the UK Cetacean Strandings Investigation Programme have been analysed for 25 chlorobiphenyl congeners. In all, 440 porpoises stranded or bycaught during the period 1991-2005 were studied. There are regional differences in the trend in summed congener concentrations over time but, despite controls on PCBs having been in place for decades, they are declining only slowly. Their toxic impacts in UK porpoises - increased susceptibility to infectious disease mortality in the most contaminated individuals - looks likely to continue for some time yet. Further efforts to limit or eliminate PCB discharges to the marine environment are still needed.     

洞庭湖湿地植被长期格局变化(1987-2016年)及其对水文过程的响应

基于长序列遥感影像数据、水位日观测数据以及高精度湖盆地形数据,通过提取洞庭湖1987—2016年湿地植被信息,并构建表征水位波动的多周期水情变量,采用逐步回归分析法识别影响洞庭湖湿地植被分布格局的关键水情变量并建立其与植被面积的响应关系.结果表明：1）1987—2016年,洞庭湖湿地典型植被面积在全湖尺度上呈增加趋势,尤其是林地面积,占比由1.77%上升为7.24%.湿地植被格局演变上,东洞庭湖呈现芦苇群落挤占苔草群落空间,并推动湿地植被整体向湖心扩张的趋势.2）影响东洞庭湖苔草和芦苇分布最关键的水情变量是丰水期水位.苔草对丰水期水情存在非线性阈值响应,丰水期平均水位维持在29 m左右,最适宜苔草生长;对于芦苇,丰水期偏枯的水情条件对其生长发育起到促进作用.涨水期和退水期水文过程是影响东洞庭湖湿地植被分布的次为重要的水情因子.涨水期、退水期水位偏低的水情条件对芦苇分布面积的扩张起促进作用.     

Magmatic response to early aseismic ridge subduction: the Ecuadorian margin case (South America)

A geochemical and isotopic study of lavas from Pichincha, Antisana and Sumaco volcanoes in the Northern Volcanic Zone (NVZ) in Ecuador shows their magma genesis to be strongly influenced by slab melts. Pichincha lavas (in fore arc position) display all the characteristics of adakites (or slab melts) and were found in association with magnesian andesites. In the main arc, adakite-like lavas from Antisana volcano could be produced by the destabilization of pargasite in a garnet-rich mantle. In the back arc, high-niobium basalts found at Sumaco volcano could be produced in a phlogopite-rich mantle. The strikingly homogeneous isotopic signatures of all the lavas suggest that continental crust assimilation is limited and confirm that magmas from the three volcanic centers are closely related. The following magma genesis model is proposed in the NVZ in Ecuador: in fore arc position beneath Pichincha volcano, oceanic crust is able to melt and produces adakites. En route to the surface, part of these magmas metasomatize the mantle wedge inducing the crystallization of pargasite, phlogopite and garnet. In counterpart, they are enriched in magnesium and are placed at the surface as magnesian andesites. Dragged down by convection, the modified mantle undergoes a first partial melting event by the destabilization of pargasite and produces the adakite-like lavas from Antisana volcano. Lastly, dragged down deeper beneath the Sumaco volcano, the mantle melts a second time by the destabilization of phlogopite and produces high-niobium basalts. The obvious variation in spatial distribution (and geochemical characteristics) of the volcanism in the NVZ between Colombia and Ecuador clearly indicates that the subduction of the Carnegie Ridge beneath the Ecuadorian margin strongly influences the subduction-related volcanism. It is proposed that the flattening of the subducted slab induced by the recent subduction (<5 Ma?) of the Carnegie Ridge has permitted the progressive warming of the oceanic crust and its partial melting since ca. 1.5 Ma. Since then, the production of adakites in fore arc position has deeply transformed the magma genesis in the overall arc changing from ‘typical’ calc-alkaline magmatism induced by hydrous fluid metasomatism, to the space- and time-associated lithology adakite/high-Mg andesite/adakite-like andesite/high-Nb basalts characteristic of slab melt metasomatism.     

Evaluating Duero's basin (Spain) response to the NAO phases: spatial and seasonal variability

In this study, we analysed the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the hydrological response of the Duero River (central Spain) and its tributaries. We identified the positive and negative phases of the winter NAO for the period 1961–2006 and related precipitation and river discharge anomalies. Significant differences in precipitation and river discharge were found between the positive and negative NAO phases with negative anomalies (dry conditions) during positive NAO periods, and positive anomalies (wet conditions) during negative NAO periods. Marked differences were also found in the precipitation and river discharge response times to the NAO episodes, with an immediate response for precipitation but a lag and more sustained response for river discharges. Differing patterns were also identified in the response of river discharge to the NAO throughout the Duero basin. The physical characteristics of watersheds (including area, altitude and permeability explained most of the differences in the timing and magnitude of anomalies in the river discharge in response to the NAO. The findings highlight the great variability in the hydrological response of rivers to the NAO episodes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Human impact on the transport of terrigenous and anthropogenic elements to peri-alpine lakes (Switzerland) over the last decades

Terrigenous (Sc, Fe, K, Mg, Al, Ti) and anthropogenic (Pb and Cu) element fluxes were measured in a new sediment core from Lake Biel (Switzerland) and in previously well-documented cores from two upstream lakes (Lake Brienz and Lake Thun). These three large peri-alpine lakes are connected by the Aare River, which is the main tributary to the High Rhine River. Major and trace element analysis of the sediment cores by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) shows that the site of Lake Brienz receives three times more terrigenous elements than the two other studied sites, given by the role of Lake Brienz as the first major sediment sink located in the foothills of the Alps. Overall, the terrigenous fluxes reconstructed at the three studied sites suggest that the construction of sediment-trapping reservoirs during the twentieth century noticeably decreased the riverine suspended sediment load at a regional scale. In fact, the extensive river damming that occurred in the upstream watershed catchment (between ca. 1930 and 1950 and up to 2,300 m a.s.l.) and that significantly modified seasonal suspended sediment loads and riverine water discharge patterns to downstream lakes noticeably diminished the long-range transport of (fine) terrigenous particles by the Aare River. Concerning the transport of anthropogenic pollutants, the lowest lead enrichment factors (EFs Pb) were measured in the upstream course of the Aare River at the site of Lake Brienz, whereas the metal pollution was highest in downstream Lake Biel, with the maximum values measured between 1940 and 1970 (EF Pb > 3). The following recorded regional reduction in aquatic Pb pollution started about 15 years before the actual introduction of unleaded gasoline in 1985. Furthermore, the radiometric dating of the sediment core from Lake Biel identifies three events of hydrological transport of artificial radionuclides released by the nuclear reactor of Mühleberg located at more than 15 km upstream of Lake Biel for the time period 1970–2000.     

Hazard-consistent response spectra in the Region of Murcia (Southeast Spain): comparison to earthquake-resistant provisions

Hazard-consistent ground-motion characterisations of three representative sites located in the Region of Murcia (southeast Spain) are presented. This is the area where the last three damaging events in Spain occurred and there is a significant amount of data for comparing them with seismic hazard estimates and earthquake-resistant provisions. Results of a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are used to derive uniform hazard spectra (UHS) for the 475-year return period, on rock and soil conditions. Hazard deaggregation shows that the largest hazard contributions are due to small, local events for short-period target motions and to moderate, more distant events for long-period target motions. For each target motion and site considered, the associated specific response spectra (SRS) are obtained. It is shown that the combination of two SRS, for short- and long-period ground motions respectively, provides a good approximation to the UHS at each site. The UHS are compared to design response spectra contained in current Spanish and European seismic codes for the 475-year return period. For the three sites analysed, only the Eurocode 8 (EC8) type 2 spectrum captures the basic shape of the UHS (and not the EC8 type 1, as could be expected a priori). An alternative response spectrum, anchored at short- and long-period accelerations, is tested, providing a close match to the UHS spectra at the three sites. Results underline the important contribution of the frequent, low-to-moderate earthquakes that characterize the seismicity of this area to seismic hazard (at the 475-year return period).     

Gulfwatch: monitoring spatial and temporal patterns of trace metal and organic contaminants in the Gulf of Maine (1991-1997) with the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis L

Gulfwatch, established in 1991, is an international contaminant monitoring program in which the blue mussel, Mytilus edulis, is used as an indicator of the level and extent of contamination in the Gulf of Maine. Since 1991, trace metals, PAHs, PCBs, and OC pesticides have been measured in mussel tissues at 56 sites. The distribution of most metals was relatively uniform throughout the Gulf with the exception of Ag, Pb and Cr. However, the concentration of organic contaminants increased in a north-to-south direction. High concentrations of contaminants were correlated with large human population density and proximity to large rivers. Temporal analysis of five sites revealed that the majority of contaminant concentrations were either unchanged or decreasing. The concentrations of most contaminants were lower than the median of the National Status and Trends (NS & T) Mussel Watch with the exceptions of Cr, Hg, Pb and sigma PCB24. Hg concentrations at > 80% of the Gulfwatch sites exceeded the NS & T median +1 SD. Gulfwatch continues as a primary contaminant monitoring program in the Gulf of Maine.     

Straightforward methods to detect non-linear response of the soil. Application to the recordings of the Kobe earthquake (Japan, 1995)

Simple straightforward methods are applied to testtheir ability to detect the non-linear response of thesoil. Recordings of the main shock and aftershocks ofthe 1995, Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake are used.Non-linear effects are investigated using twodifferent techniques, on a collection of data for 12sites situated on different geological structures inthe Kobe and Osaka areas. The first method used is theso-called receiver functions technique (Langston,1979), which consists of computing the spectral ratiobetween horizontal and vertical components of motion.This ratio has been shown to reveal the fundamentalfrequency of a site (Lachet and Bard, 1994; Lachet etal., 1996; Theodulidis et al., 1995, 1996). For eachsite, recordings of the main shock and a set ofaftershocks are considered. The variation of thisspectral ratio for different values of the maximumacceleration recorded at a site is investigated. Bothvariations of the amplitude of the H/V ratio (due tonon-linear behavior, on the horizontal components inparticular) and of the frequency position of theamplified band-width are observed. The secondtechnique used in this study is related to thevariation of the high frequency content of therecordings during the main-shock and its aftershocks.The high frequency spectral decay of the motion,characterized by parameter, is assumed to berelated mainly to the near-surface attenuation. Itshould then increase with increasing peak velocity, incase of non-linearity. The value of kappa iscalculated for the 12 sites in the Kobe area, fordifferent types of soil conditions, and againdifferent values of peak ground acceleration.Variations of kappa are then related to non-linearbehavior of the soil during the Kobe earthquake.     

Climate change response to astronomical forcing during the Oligocene-Miocene transition in the equatorial Atlantic (ODP Site 926)

The Oligocene-Miocene transition period was characterized by a decrease in global CO₂ levels, expansion of polar ice sheet, fall in global sea-level, etc. However, the reasons for, and mechanisms of, this global, extreme-cold climate change event (Mi-1) still remain controversial. Our samples from the core of the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 154, Site 926, located in the equatorial Atlantic, mainly consist of light-gray, nannofossil chalk with foraminifers interbedded with green-ish-gray, clayey, nannofossil chalk sediments. Color variation from light-gray layers (up to 80% carbonate content) to dark layers (～60% carbonate content) was observed to occur cyclically at the meter scale. Therefore, we chose color reflectance lightness (L*) data as the paleoclimate proxy on which to perform cyclostratigraphic analysis because it could reflect carbonate content changes. Based on the recognition of the 405 kyr long eccentricity and ～40 kyr obliquity cycles of the L* series, we tuned the series to establish an absolute astronomical time scale using the published age of the Oligocene-Miocene boundary (OMB) as the anchor for an absolute age control point. The power spectra of the tuned L* series showed that the long eccentricity signals became significantly weak, while the obliquity signals became strong, from the Late Oligocene to the Early Miocene. The 405 kyr long eccentricity minimum coincided with the 1.2 Myr obliquity node at the OMB, and similar convergences might be closely related to other extreme-cold events in Earth’s history. In addition, the sedimentation accumulation rate, oxygen isotopes of benthonic foraminifers, and rodents’ per-taxon turnover rate from Central Spain showed the same ～2 Myr cyclicity, which indicates the significant influence of Earth-orbital forcing on the Earth system and ecological evolution on the million-year time scale.     

Application of a finite element model (TELEMAC) to computing the wind induced response of the Irish Sea

Initially a brief overview of the problem of computing the wind-induced circulation on the west coast of Britain is reviewed together with storm surge modelling. To date this work has primarily been performed with finite difference models. However, here new work is presented using a finite element model with a range of mesh refinements in shallow water regions to examine the influence of mesh resolution upon the wind-induced circulation off the west coast of Britain. Steady state current fields are computed for uniform westerly and southerly winds and compared with a uniform grid (of order 7 km) finite difference model solution. Calculations show that in deep water regions away from the coastal influence, the large-scale circulation features in the finite element solution are in good agreement with those found in the finite difference model. This suggests that they can be adequately resolved on a 7 km mesh. In the nearshore region and within estuaries a significantly finer mesh is required, with the variable mesh finite element model showing significant small scale variability in the nearshore area. Refining the mesh in the Mersey and using an accurate topographic data set, shows that although the larger scale features in the estuary can be resolved in the coarser mesh model, accurate topography is required to model their exact location. In addition smaller scale features are found that were not resolved in the coarser mesh models. Due to the effects of “wetting and drying” and the importance of non-linear processes in shallow regions difficulties occurred in de-tiding the full solution in order to determine the wind forced residual. Determining the wind forced solution in shallow water from a calculation in which wind and tidal forcing are included poses problems as to how to “de-tide” the solution in such a highly non-linear region. An approach based upon the harmonic analysis of the total solution, rather than subtracting a “tide only” solution is shown to be most effective and has implications for storm surge prediction.General and specific conclusions on the importance of highly accurate bathymetry, good mesh resolution and de-tiding method upon the accuracy of the wind forced solution in nearshore regions are summarized in the final part of the paper. The implications for storm surge prediction together with suggestions for future research to enhance the accuracy of storm surge prediction, namely “the way forward” are given at the end of the paper.