Disparity in the characteristic of thunderstorms and associated lightning activities over dissimilar terrains

Thunderstorms and associated lightning flash activities are studied over two different locations in India with different terrain features. Lightning imaging sensor (LIS) data from 1998 to 2008 are analyzed during the pre-monsoon months (March, April and May). The eastern sector is designated as Sector A that represents a 2° × 2° square area enclosing Kolkata (22.65°N, 88.45°E) at the centre and covering Gangetic West Bengal, parts of Bihar and Orissa whereas the north-eastern sector designated as Sector B that also represents a 2° × 2° square area encircling Guwahati (26.10°N, 91.58°E) at the centre and covering Assam and foot hills of Himalaya of India. The stations Kolkata and Guwahati are selected for the present study from Sector A and Sector B, respectively, as these are the only stations over the selected areas having Radiosonde observatory. The result of the present study reveals that the characteristics of thunderstorms over the two locations are remarkably different. Lightning frequency is observed to be higher in Sector B than Sector A. The result further reveals that though the lightning frequency is less in Sector A, but the associated radiance is higher in Sector A than Sector B. It is also observed that the radiance increases linearly with convective available potential energy (CAPE) and their high correlation reveals that the lightning intensity can be estimated through the CAPE values. The sensitivity of lightning activity to CAPE is higher at the elevated station Guwahati (elevation 54 m) than Kolkata (elevation 6 m). Moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS) data products are used to obtain aerosol optical depth and cloud top temperature and employed to find their responses on lightning radiance.     

The impact of convergence zones on the initiation of deep convection: A case study from COPS

During the ‘Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study’ (COPS) performed in summer 2007, deep convection developed on July 15, although convective available potential energy was only moderate and convective inhibition was high. Convection was restricted to an area east of the Black Forest crest. Data analysis revealed that the convection was triggered by different mechanisms. Due to a surface high which was situated east of the Black Forest and a surface low which approached the investigation area from the west, a mesoscale convergence zone was established between the two regions and moved eastwards. Secondly, high insolation favoured the development of slope and valley winds and high evapotranspiration resulted in an increase of moisture in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). The thermally driven circulation systems formed a convergence zone along the mountain crest. When the synoptically induced mesoscale convergence zone reached the Black Forest, the different convergence zones superimposed optimally, such that strong updraughts were observed above the mountain. These updraughts penetrated the PBL-capping inversion and nearly reached the level of free convection. About 15 min after the convergence zone had passed the Black Forest crest, first clouds developed east of it. While moving further eastwards, the convergence zone intensified and became visible as a north-south oriented cloud line in the satellite images. Some deep convective cells with precipitation formed within the cloud line. The dense COPS network allowed the capture of the position and characteristics of the convergence zone and explains why convection developed in some restricted areas only.     

印度洋地区MJO对流生成动力学机制的研究进展

Madden-Julian Oscillation （MJO）是热带大气在季节内时间尺度上的主要变化特征,MJO对流的活动对全球很多地区的天气和气候系统都有重要的影响,因此MJO是大气科学重要的前沿课题之一.MJO对流的生成过程是MJO研究中公认的最薄弱的环节,文中从MJO的研究背景出发,对MJO对流生成的有关研究工作及其进展进行了回顾与总结,主要包括MJO对流生成的前期信号、MJO对流的数值模拟、MJO对流生成的动力学机制.最后对MJO对流生成研究中还有待解决的问题进行了分析与讨论.     

Reconstruction of long-term precipitation records for Edinburgh: an examination of the mechanisms responsible for temporal variability in precipitation

Summary Recent dry years (combined dry winter and summer months) within the UK (2005 and 2006) have enhanced concerns relating to long term water resources and future water provision in large conurbations. This paper examines the mechanisms responsible for precipitation variability for five different areas in Edinburgh (precipitation regions) using composite historic precipitation records for the period 1861–2005. Trend analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were undertaken to examine precipitation variability over time and space. Annual correlation co-efficients were derived for relationships between precipitation areas, atmospheric–oceanographic variations and geographic parameters. Stepwise regression models were constructed to specify annual precipitation, through atmospheric variations, for each of the precipitation areas. Significant downward trends in precipitation (p < 0.05) were noted in two out of the five precipitation areas, with one principal component representing precipitation variability over Edinburgh and the Pentland Hills. Precipitation variability is best explained by fluctuations in pressure, altitude and proximity to coast. Precipitation trends cannot be explained by changes in atmospheric circulation patterns. Authors’ addresses: N. Macdonald, Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 7ZT, United Kingdom; I. D. Phillips, J. Thorpe, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston B15 2TT, United Kingdom.     

High-resolution simulation and analysis of the mature structure of a polar low over the sea of Japan on 21 January 1997

This paper presents a high-resolution simulation of a remarkable polar low observed over the Sea of Japan on 21 January 1997 by using a 5-km mesh non-hydrostatic model MRI-NHM (Meteorological Research Institute Non-Hydrostatic Model). A 24-hour simulation starting from 0000 UTC 21 January 1997 successfully reproduced the observed features of the polar low such as the wrapping of western part of an initial E W orientation vortex, the spiral-shaped bands, the cloud-free “eye“, and the warm core structure at its mature stage. The “eye“ of the simulated polar low was relatively dry, and was associated with a strong downdraft. A thermodynamic budget analysis indicates that the “warm core“ in the “eye“ region was mainly caused by the adiabatic warming associated with the downdraft. The relationship among the condensational diabatic heating, the vertical velocity, the convergence of the moisture flux, and the circulation averaged within a 50 km~50 km square area around the polar low center shows that they form a positive feedback loop, and this loop is not inconsistent with the CISK (Conditional Instability of the Second Kind) mechanism during the developing stage of the polar low.     

The analysis of the spatiotemporal variations and mechanisms for the near-surface wind speed over China in the last 40 years

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study mainly presents the spatiotemporal characteristics and changes of near-surface wind speed with observations from 679 stations over China for...     

影响夏季西北太平洋副热带高压年际变率的关键海区及影响机制

西北太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)是影响东亚夏季气候的主要环流系统,其年际变率受热带多个海区的海-气相互作用过程的调控。为明确影响夏季西太副高的关键海区及其影响机制,在总结最近十余年来相关研究进展的基础上,归纳出影响夏季西太副高年际变率的5个关键海区,包括赤道中东太平洋、热带印度洋、副热带西北太平洋、海洋大陆附近海区以及热带大西洋。阐述了这5个关键海区的海温异常影响西太副高年际变率的机制,并探讨了5个关键海区海温异常的形成机制。围绕夏季西太副高的年际变率,回顾了当前气候模式的模拟和预测研究的现状。最后,提出了本领域亟待解决的关键科学问题,展望未来可能的研究热点。     

On the variability of the surface environment response to synoptic forcing over complex terrain: a multivariate data analysis approach

Synoptic climatology relates the atmospheric circulation with the surface environment. The aim of this study is to examine the variability of the surface meteorological patterns, which are developing under different synoptic scale categories over a suburban area with complex topography. Multivariate Data Analysis techniques were performed to a data set with surface meteorological elements. Three principal components related to the thermodynamic status of the surface environment and the two components of the wind speed were found. The variability of the surface flows was related with atmospheric circulation categories by applying Correspondence Analysis. Similar surface thermodynamic fields develop under cyclonic categories, which are contrasted with the anti-cyclonic category. A strong, steady wind flow characterized by high shear values develops under the cyclonic Closed Low and the anticyclonic H–L categories, in contrast to the variable weak flow under the anticyclonic Open Anticyclone category.     

Airborne measurements of turbulent trace gas fluxes and analysis of eddy structure in the convective boundary layer over complex terrain

Using the new high-frequency measurement equipment of the research aircraft DO 128, which is described in detail, turbulent vertical fluxes of ozone and nitric oxide have been calculated from data sampled during the ESCOMPTE program in the south of France. Based on airborne turbulence measurements, radiosonde data and surface energy balance measurements, the convective boundary layer (CBL) is examined under two different aspects. The analysis covers boundary-layer convection with respect to (i) the control of CBL depth by surface heating and synoptic scale influences, and (ii) the structure of convective plumes and their vertical transport of ozone and nitric oxides. The orographic structure of the terrain causes significant differences between planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights, which are found to exceed those of terrain height variations on average. A comparison of boundary-layer flux profiles as well as mean quantities over flat and complex terrain and also under different pollution situations and weather conditions shows relationships between vertical gradients and corresponding turbulent fluxes. Generally, NO_x transports are directed upward independent of the terrain, since primary emission sources are located near the ground. For ozone, negative fluxes are common in the lower CBL in accordance with the deposition of O₃ at the surface.The detailed structure of thermals, which largely carry out vertical transports in the boundary layer, are examined with a conditional sampling technique. Updrafts mostly contain warm, moist and NO_x loaded air, while the ozone transport by thermals alternates with the background ozone gradient. Evidence for handover processes of trace gases to the free atmosphere can be found in the case of existing gradients across the boundary-layer top. An analysis of the size of eddies suggests the possibility of some influence of the heterogeneous terrain in mountainous area on the length scales of eddies.     

Sporadic breakdowns of stability in the PBL over simple and complex terrain

Breakdowns of stability in the PBL are examined using one-minute average horizontal wind speeds and temperatures observed over many nights at stations located in simple and complex terrain. The analysis is based on the temporal behavior of the wind speed-temperature covariance, which is obtained by digital bandpass filtering. It is shown that breakdowns are a common feature of the stable PBL over both simple and complex environments. Vertical fluxes of heat during breakdowns are estimated to be a significant fraction of the nighttime average heat flux. It is hypothesized that a major portion of the nighttime vertical transfer of heat, momentum, and atmospheric pollutants occurs during periods of stability breakdowns.     

Dynamical downscaling of IPSL-CM5 CMIP5 historical simulations over the Mediterranean: benefits on the representation of regional surface winds and cyclogenesis

The Mediterranean region is identified as one of the two main hot-spots of climate change and also known to have the highest concentration of cyclones in the world. These atmospheric features contribute significantly to the regional climate but they are not reproduced by the Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM), due to their coarse horizontal resolution, which have recently been run in the frame of the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project. This article investigates the benefit of dynamically downscaling the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) AOGCM (IPSL-CM5) historical simulation by the weather and research forecasting (WRF) for the representation of the Mediterranean surface winds and cyclonic activity. Indeed, when considering IPSL-CM5 atmospheric fields, the dramatic underestimation of the cyclonic activity in the most cyclogenetic region of the world jeopardizes our ability to investigate in-depth the Mediterranean regional climate and trend in the context of global change. The WRF model shows remarkable skill to reproduce regional cyclogenesis. Indeed, cyclones occurrence is quasi-absent in IPSL-CM5 data but when applying dynamical downscaling their spatial–temporal variability is very close to the re-analysis. This is a clear benefit of dynamical downscaling in regions of strong topographic forcing. This “steady” source of forcing allows the production of lee cyclogenesis and the development of strong cyclones, whatever the quality of the large-scale circulation provided at the WRF’s boundaries by IPSL-CM5. However, dynamical downscaling still presents disadvantages as for instance the fact that large-scale inaccurate features of the IPSL-CM5 regional circulation are replicated by WRF due to the boundary controlled (small domain) simulation. The advantages and disadvantages of dynamical downscaling are thoroughly discussed in this paper revealing its importance for climate research, especially in the context of future scenarios and wind impacts.     

The exceptionally wet year of 2014 over Greece: a statistical and synoptical-atmospheric analysis over the region of Thessaloniki

The highest rainfall totals (912.2 mm) and the largest number of raindays (133 days), since 1958, were recorded in Thessaloniki during the year of 2014. Extreme precipitation heights were also observed on a seasonal, monthly and daily basis. The examined year presented the highest daily rainfall intensity, the maximum daily precipitation and the largest number of heavy precipitation days (greater than 10 mm), and it also exceeded the previous amounts of precipitation of very wet (95th percentile) and extremely wet (99th percentile) days. According to the automatic circulation type classification scheme that was used, it was found that during this exceptionally wet year, the frequency of occurrence of cyclonic types at the near surface geopotential level increases, while the same types decreased at a higher atmospheric level (500 hPa). The prevailing type was type C which is located at the centre of the study area (Greece), but several other cyclonic types changed during this year not only their frequency but also their percentage of rainfall as well as their daily precipitation intensity. It should be highlighted that these findings differentiated on the seasonal-scale analysis. Moreover, out of the three teleconnection patterns that were examined (Scandinavian Pattern, Eastern Mediterranean Teleconnection Pattern and North Sea-Caspian Pattern), the Scandinavian one (SCAND) was detected during the most of the months of 2014 meaning that it was highly associated with intense precipitation over Greece.     

A statistical analysis of the daily precipitation over Serbia: trends and indices

A statistical analysis of the daily maximum and mean monthly precipitation measured at ten meteorological stations in Serbia during the period 1949?C2007 is presented. Although the means of the daily maximum and monthly precipitation varied throughout the year, their ratio was almost uniform, with an average value of 32.6% for Serbia. The precipitation events within each year were ranked and then the trends on the ten wettest days of the year were assessed. Averaged across Serbia, the wettest day of the year produces 41.3?mm of precipitation and accounted for 6.3% of the total annual precipitation. Taken together, 35.5% (232.0?mm) of the total annual precipitation fell during the ten wettest days of the year. Over the course of the twentieth century, the average annual precipitation on the wettest day across Serbia increased by nearly 9%. Also, averaged across Serbia, statistically insignificant increasing trends were found on each of the ten wettest days of the year. Furthermore, four climate indices were analysed. Heavy precipitation indices (i.e., RR20 and R95T) increased in Serbia at the end of the twentieth century and thereafter.     

Regional climate modelling over complex terrain: an evaluation study of COSMO-CLM hindcast model runs for the Greater Alpine Region

In this study the results of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) covering the Greater Alpine Region (GAR, 4°–19°W and 43°–49°N) were evaluated against observational data. The simulation was carried out as a hindcast run driven by ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1961–2000. The spatial resolution of the model data presented is approx. 10 km per grid point. For the evaluation purposes a variety of observational datasets were used: CRU TS 2.1, E-OBS, GPCC4 and HISTALP. Simple statistics such as mean biases, correlations, trends and annual cycles of temperature and precipitation for different sub-regions were applied to verify the model performance. Furthermore, the altitude dependence of these statistical measures has been taken into account. Compared to the CRU and E-OBS datasets CCLM shows an annual mean cold bias of ?0.6 and ?0.7 °C, respectively. Seasonal precipitation sums are generally overestimated by +8 to +23 % depending on the observational dataset with large variations in space and season. Bias and correlation show a dependency on altitude especially in the winter and summer seasons. Temperature trends in CCLM contradict the signals from observations, showing negative trends in summer and autumn which are in contrast to CRU and E-OBS.     

ENSO对中国冬季天气尺度气温变率的影响及可能机理

基于1960—2017年中国国家气象信息中心整编的753站逐日平均温度资料、美国国家海洋大气中心(NOAA)重建的逐月海表温度资料以及美国国家环境预测中心/国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR)提供的再分析大气环流资料,分析了ENSO对中国冬季天气尺度气温变率的影响。结果表明,ENSO与中国东部大部分地区的冬季天气尺度气温变率呈显著正相关,即厄尔尼诺年冬季,中国气温波动幅度增大,天气尺度气温变率明显较强;而拉尼娜年冬季,气温变化相对平稳,天气尺度温度变率较小。进一步研究发现,厄尔尼诺事件加强了冬季欧亚大陆中高纬度地区的经向温度梯度,根据热成风原理,局地大气斜压性增强,西伯利亚地区的风暴活动和下游东亚地区大气环流的天气尺度变异也随之加强,因而有利于中国大部分地区天气尺度温度变率的增大。拉尼娜年冬季,异常情况与之大致相反。