The 1997–1998 oceanic El Niño signal along the southeast and northeast Pacific boundaries—an altimetric view

Changes in the sea surface heights (SSH) and geostrophic currents along the eastern boundaries of the Pacific (North, Central and South America) are examined during the 1997–1998 El Niño using altimeter data and proxy winds. These show that ‘symmetric’ SSH signals left the equator and propagated into both Hemispheres in two episodes, with primary periods of high equatorial SSH during May–July and October–December 1997. These are the ‘distant signals’ from the mid-latitude perspective. As the signals spread poleward in each Hemisphere, their loss of symmetry demonstrates the degree to which they were altered by topographic features, local winds, and/or local currents. The first four EOFs are calculated for 2-D SSH fields in 10° wide strips along the eastern margins (60°N–60°S) and extending out along the equator from the coast to 110°W. These account for approximately 40% of the overall variability and represent the main features of the seasonal cycles and El Niño interannual variability. Snapshots of the 2-D SSH fields depict the structure of the El Niño signal at different phases of its evolution.     

Altimeter-derived surface circulation in the large–scale NE Pacific Gyres. : Part 1. seasonal variability

The seasonal variability of sea surface height (SSH) and currents are defined by analysis of altimeter data in the NE Pacific Ocean over the region from Central America to the Alaska Gyre. The results help to clarify questions about the timing of seasonal maxima in the boundary currents. As explained below, the long-term temporal mean of the SSH values must be removed at each spatial point to remove the temporally invariant (and large) signal caused by the marine geoid. We refer to the resulting SSH values, which contain all of the temporal variations, as the ‘residual’ SSH. Our main findings are:

1. The maximum surface velocities around the boundaries of the cyclonic Alaska Gyre (the Alaska Current and the Alaska Stream) occur in winter, at the same time that the equatorward California Current is weakest or reversed (forming the poleward Davidson Current); the maximum surface velocities in the California Current occur in summer. These seasonal maxima are coincident with the large-scale atmospheric wind forcing over each region.

2. Most of the seasonal variability occurs as strong residuals in alongshore surface currents around the boundaries of the NE Pacific basin, directly connecting the boundaries of the subpolar gyre, the subtropical gyre and the Equatorial Current System.

3. Seasonal variability in the surface velocities of the eastward North Pacific Current (West Wind Drift) is weak in comparison to seasonal changes in the surface currents along the boundaries.

4. There is an initial appearance next to the coast and offshore migration of seasonal highs and lows in SSH, alongshore velocity and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Alaska Gyre, similar to the previously-described seasonal offshore migration in the California Current.

5. The seasonal development of high SSH and poleward current residuals next to the coast appear first off Central America and mainland Mexico in May–June, prior to their appearance in the southern part of the California Current in July–August and their eventual spread around the entire basin in November–December. Similarly, low SSH and equatorward transport residuals appear first off Central America and Mexico in January–February before spreading farther north in spring and summer.

6. The maximum values of EKE occur when each of the boundary currents are maximum.

A comparison of remote vs. local influence of El Niño on the coastal circulation of the northeast Pacific

A set of spatially nested circulation models is used to explore interannual change in the northeast Pacific (NEP) during 1997–2002, and remote vs. local influence of the 1997–1998 El Niño on this region. Our nested set is based on the primitive equations of motion, and includes a basin-scale model of the north Pacific at ∼40-km resolution (NPac), and a regional model of the Northeast Pacific at ∼10-km resolution. The NEP model spans an area from Baja California through the Bering Sea, from the coast to ∼2000-km offshore. In this context, “remote influence” refers to effects driven by changes in ocean velocity and temperature outside of the NEP domain; “local influence” refers to direct forcing by winds and runoff within the NEP domain. A base run of this model using hindcast winds and runoff for 1996–2002 replicates the dominant spatial modes of sea-surface height anomalies from satellite data, and coastal sea level from tide gauges. We have performed a series of sensitivity runs with the NEP model for 1997–1998, which analyze the response of coastal sea level to: (1) hindcast winds and coastal runoff, as compared to their monthly climatologies and (2) hindcast boundary conditions (from the NPac model), as compared to their monthly climatologies. Results indicate penetration of sea-surface height (SSH) from the basin-scale model into the NEP domain (e.g., remote influence), with propagation as coastal trapped waves from Baja up through Alaska. Most of the coastal sea-level anomaly off Alaska in El Niño years appears due to direct forcing by local winds and runoff (local influence), and such anomalies are much stronger than those produced off California. We quantify these effects as a function of distance along the coastline, and consider how they might impact the coastal ecosystems of the NEP.     

The evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies in the northeast Pacific during the El Niño and La Niña events of 1995–2001

From late 1995 through early 2001, three major interannual climate events occurred in the tropical Pacific; the 1995–97 La Niña (LN), 1997–98 El Niño (EN), and 1998–2001 LN. We analyze atmospheric and upper oceanic anomalies in the northeast Pacific (NEP) during these events, and compare them to anomalies both elsewhere in the north and tropical Pacific, and to typical EN and LN anomaly patterns. The atmospheric and oceanic anomalies varied strongly on intraseasonal and interannual scales. During the 1995–97 LN and 1997–98 EN, the Northeast Pacific was dominated by negative SLP and cyclonic wind anomalies, and by upper ocean temperature and sea surface height (SSH) anomalies. The latter were positive along the North American west coast and in the NEP thermal anomaly pool (between Hawaii, Vancouver Island, and Baja California), and negative in the central north Pacific. This atmospheric/oceanic anomaly pattern is typical of EN. An eastward shift in the atmospheric teleconnection from east Asia created EN-like anomalies in the NEP during the 1995–97 LN, well before the 1997–98 EN had begun. The persistence of negative sea-level pressure (SLP) and cyclonic wind anomalies in the NEP during the 1997–98 EN intensified pre-existing upper oceanic anomalies. Atmospheric anomalies were shifted eastward during late 1996–early 1998, leading to a similar onshore shift of oceanic anomalies. This produced exceptionally strong positive upper ocean temperature and SSH anomalies along the west coast during the 1997–98 EN, and explains the unusual coastal occurrences of several species of large pelagic warm-water fishes. The growth and eastward shift of these pre-existing anomalies does not appear to have been linked to tropical Pacific EN anomalies until late 1997, when a clear atmospheric teleconnection between the two regions developed. Prior to this, remote atmospheric impacts on the NEP were primarily from east Asia. As the 1998–2001 LN developed, NEP anomalies began reversing toward the typical LN pattern. This led to predominantly negative SLP and cyclonic wind anomalies in the NEP, and upper ocean temperature and SSH anomalies that were mainly negative along the west coast and positive in the central north Pacific. The persistence of these anomalies into mid-2001, and a number of concurrent biological changes in the NEP, suggest that a decadal climate shift may have occurred in late 1998.During 1995–2001, NEP oceanic anomalies tracked the overlying atmospheric anomalies, as indicated by the maintenance of a characteristic spatial relationship between these anomalies. In particular, wind stress curl and SSH anomalies in the NEP maintained an inverse relationship that strengthened and shifted eastward toward the west coast during late 1996–early 1998. This consistent relationship indicates that anomalous Ekman transport driven by regional atmospheric forcing was an important contributor to temperature and SSH anomalies in the NEP and CCS during the 1997–98 EN. Other studies have shown that coastal propagations originating from the tropical Pacific also may have contributed to coastal NEP anomalies during this EN. Our results indicate that at least some of this coastal anomaly signal may have been generated by regional atmospheric forcing within the NEP.     

Sea level response to ENSO along the central California coast: how the 1997–1998 event compares with the historic record

Long-term monthly sea level and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from central California show that during winter months, positive anomalies are associated with El Niño events and the negative ones with La Niña events. There is no significant impact on monthly mean anomalies associated with Pacific decadal oscillations, although there is a tendency for more extreme events and greater variance during positive decadal oscillations. The very strong 1997–1998 El Niño was analyzed with respect to the long-term historic record to assess the forcing mechanisms for sea level and SST. Beginning in the spring of 1997, we observed several long-period (>30 days) fluctuations in daily sea level with amplitudes of over 10 cm at San Francisco, California. Fluctuations of poleward long-period alongshore wind stress anomalies (AWSA) are coherent with the sea level anomalies. However, the wind stress cannot entirely account for the observed sea level signals. The sea level fluctuations are also correlated with sea level fluctuations observed further south at Los Angeles and Tumaco, Columbia, which showed a poleward phase propagation of the sea level signal. We suggest that the sea level fluctuations were, to a greater degree, forced by the passage of remotely generated and coastally trapped waves that were generated along the equator and propagated to the north along the west coast of North America. However, both local and remote AWSA can significantly modulate the sea level signals. The arrival of coastally trapped waves began in the spring of 1997, which is earlier than previous strong El Niño events such as the 1982–1983 event.     

Evolution of oceanographic conditions off Baja California: 1997–1999

This paper examines the oceanic response off Baja California, Mexico, to the 1997–1998 El Niño and the transition to La Niña conditions. The data presented were gathered during seven cruises over a grid based on the CalCOFI station plan, from lines 100–130, out to station 80. T–S diagrams with data obtained during the peak phase of El Niño, demonstrate that warmer and saltier (spicier) than normal conditions prevailed in the upper 600 m over this region. Temperature and salinity anomalies calculated for CalCOFI line 120 revealed waters near the coast at 50 m depth to be up to 8.7 °C warmer and S=0.8 saltier than the climatology during October 1997. These large anomalies persisted through January 1998, with some slight diminution in the magnitudes near the surface. This study suggests that anomalously warm and salty waters were fed from a source of spicy water to the southwest, identified as Subtropical Surface Water (StSW), and that low-salinity Tropical surface waters (TSW) were blocked to the southeast in the vicinity of the tip of the Peninsula. Subsurface waters associated with the California undercurrent (CU), fed from the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), were also warmer and saltier than normal, and indicate a significant expansion in volume of the CU, presumably a result of intensification of poleward flow at depth. We postulate that the well defined near-surface and deep poleward flows in the study area reflect anomalous large-scale cyclonic circulation affecting the flow in the southeastern region of the North Pacific subtropical gyre east of 125°W. Following the El Niño event, warm and salty upper waters retreated to latitudes south of Punta Eugenia. With the return to normal and cooler conditions, equatorward flow over the sampling grid predominated with an increased meandering and mesoscale activity. Transition to La Niña conditions would have been associated with re-establishment of normal anticyclonic flow in the southeastern quadrant of the Pacific subtropical gyre.     

Changes in the hydrography of Central California waters associated with the 1997–98 El Niño

Oceanographic conditions off Central California were monitored by means of a series of 13 hydrographic cruises between February 1997 and January 1999, which measured water properties along an oceanographic section perpendicular to the California Coast. The 1997–98 El Niño event was defined by higher than normal sea levels at Monterey, which began in June 1997, peaked in November 1997, and returned to normal in March 1998. The warming took place in two distinct periods. During June and July 1997, the sea level increased as a result of stronger than normal coastal warming below 200 dbars and within 100 km of the coast, which was associated with poleward flow of saltier waters. During this period, deeper (400–1000 dbar) waters between 150–200 km from shore were also warmed and became more saline. Subsequently, sea level continued to rise through January 1998, mostly as a result of the warming above 200 dbars although, after a brief period of cooling in September 1997, waters below 200 dbar were also warmer than normal during this period. This winter warm anomaly was also coastally trapped, extending 200 km from shore and was accompanied by cooler and fresher water in the offshore California current. In March and April 1998, sea level dropped quickly to normal levels and inshore waters were fresher and warmer than the previous spring and flowed southward.The warming was consistent with equatorial forcing of Central California waters via propagation of Kelvin or coastally-trapped waves. The observed change in heat content associated with the 1997–98 El Niño was the same as that observed during the previous seasonal cycle. The warming and freshening events were similar to events observed during the 1957–58 and 1982–83 El Niños.     

The evolution and depth structure of shelf and slope temperatures and velocities during the 1997–1998 El Niño near Point Conception, California

Moored, survey, and drifter observations are used to describe the evolution of temperature, sea level, velocity and salinity from 1997 to 1998 over the California shelf, between San Luis Obispo Bay and the eastern entrance to the Santa Barbara Channel. The dominant event during this time was the 1997–1998 El Niño. Its relation to background seasonal and interannual variability depended on which property is considered. Subsurface temperature and local sea level showed extreme anomalies between March 1997 and October 1998. Three distinct peaks occurred. The first two are associated with the regional response to El Niño, while the cause of the third remains unclear. The first peaked in June 1997, and decayed until August. The main El Niño peak reached maximum amplitude between November 1997 and January 1998. After the collapse of the regional El Niño anomaly in February 1998, a final peak occurred locally during the summer of 1998.The central result presented here concerns the spatial structure of temperature during these events. The initial peak was surface intensified and was barely detectable at 45 m. Its amplitude varied with position along the coast, decaying with distance north. The main peak showed a strong signal down to at least 200 m. The amplitude and timing of temperature anomalies during this event were depth dependent. The largest absolute amplitudes relative to seasonal cycles were in excess of 4 °C and occurred between 45 and 65 m depth. The anomalies reached their maximum values at later time with increasing depth, between October 1997 and January 1998. The amplitude of this main peak was comparable at all mooring sites. The final peak in August 1998 had a comparable amplitude at all mooring sites to a depth of 100 m. Temperature increases during the three events were accompanied by a corresponding rise in sea level.The El Niño signals in currents and salinity are more difficult to distinguish from background variability than those in temperatures and sea level. However, stronger than average poleward flow was observed at the eastern entrance to the Santa Barbara Channel between 5 and 100 m depth for most of 1997, and there are indications for greater than usual poleward flow over the Santa Maria Basin in fall 1997. Surface drifter evidence, although qualitative, also suggests greater than usual poleward displacement in November 1997 relative to other years. Along with increased temperature, survey observations of salinity suggest changes to the regional temperature–salinity relation during November 1997 with greater than usual salinity at temperatures below 12 °C.     

The coastal ocean off Oregon and northern California during the 1997–8 El Niño

The evolution and decay of El Niño 1997–8 was observed in coastal waters off Oregon in a sequence of cruises along 44.6°N from the coast to more than 150 km offshore. Hydrographic observations were made during eleven cruises between July 1997 and April 1999 at stations on the Newport Hydrographic Line, which had been occupied regularly from 1961 to 1971. The data from the earlier decade provide a basis for defining ‘normal’ conditions and allow comparisons with the recent El Niño in terms of T, S, spiciness and geostrophic velocity. Independent of El Niño, the ocean in July 1997 was already anomalously warm offshore of 50 km and above 100 m. By September 1997 there were unambiguous indications of El Niño: isotherms and isohalines sloped down toward the coast indicating poleward flow over shelf and slope, and anomalously spicy water was present at the shelf-break. In November 1997 and February 1998 shelf-break waters were even warmer, and there was strong poleward flow inshore of 100 km, extending to depths greater than 200 m. The April 1998 section closely resembled that of April 1983 (another El Niño year) but by June 1998 the anomalies were mostly gone. November 1998 was near normal and the sections from subsequent cruises resemble the mean sections from 1961–1971.Four cruises between November 1997 and November 1998 included sampling at several latitudes between 38° and 45°N. As expected, these sections show significant alongshore gradients, but also a surprising degree of homogeneity in the anomalous features associated with El Niño (in the temperature, salinity, spiciness and geostrophic velocity fields). The anomalous signature of El Niño was stronger at its winter peak in 1998 than in 1983, but the signature in the temperature and spiciness fields, and in coastal sea level, did not persist as long as in 1983. By April 1999, the coastal ocean from 38°N to 45°N was significantly colder than it had been in April 1984.     

Trace metals in the Western Pacific: temporal and spatial variability in the concentrations of Cd, Cu, Mn and Ni

Profiles of total dissolvable Cd, Cu, Mn and Ni are reported for samples collected from the southwest Pacific in 1989, from the western equatorial Pacific along 155°E at 5°S, 0° and 5°N in 1990 and 1993, and along the equator from 143°E to 152°E and in the Bismarck Sea in 1997 and 2000. Profiles of Cd along 155°E in 1990 and along the equator were essentially the same but, in 1993, Cd values at 5°N were higher by a factor of about 1.5–2 than at 5°S over the depth range 500–1500 m. Similar, but less pronounced, differences were observed for PO₄ and Ni. Cd and Ni were both strongly correlated with PO₄, and an even stronger correlation was found between Ni and Cd. The concentration of Ni did not fall below ≈2 nmolkg⁻¹, even in the nitrate-depleted waters of the western equatorial Pacific, where primary production is strongly dependent on recycled nitrogen (mainly ammonia and urea). It is proposed that this residual Ni is not bioavailable and that Ni could be biolimiting, since the metabolism of urea requires the nickel-containing enzyme urease. The impact of the Sepik River on Cd, Cu and Ni concentrations was small but elevated concentrations of Mn were observed near the Sepik River and close to the coast suggesting that the rivers and sediments on the north coast of New Guinea are a significant local source of Mn to the Bismarck Sea. Simple mass balance calculations show that the elevated levels of Mn observed in the Equatorial Undercurrent cannot be due to input from the rivers of New Guinea and they were attributed to the trapping of particulate matter due to strong current shear. A strong hydrothermal source of Mn was observed in the central Bismarck Sea.     

Equatorially trapped Rossby waves in the presence of meridionally sheared baroclinic flow in the Pacific Ocean

TOPEX/POSEIDON altimeter data are analyzed for the 8.5-year period November 1992 to May 2001 to investigate the sea surface height (SSH) and geostrophic velocity signatures of quasi-annual equatorially trapped Rossby waves in the Pacific. The latitudinal structures of SSH and both components of geostrophic velocity are found to be asymmetric about the equator across the entire Pacific with larger amplitude north of the equator. The westward phase speeds are estimated by several different methods to be in the range 0.5-0.6 m s⁻¹. These observed characteristics are inconsistent with the classical theory for first vertical, first meridional mode equatorially trapped Rossby waves, which predicts a phase speed of about 0.9 m s⁻¹ with latitudinally symmetric structures of SSH and zonal velocity and antisymmetric structure of meridional velocity. The observations are even less consistent with the latitudinal structures of SSH and geostrophic velocity components for other modes of the classical theory.The latitudinal asymmetries deduced here have also been consistently observed in past analyses of subsurface thermal data and altimeter data and have been variously attributed to sampling errors in the observational data, a superposition of multiple meridional Rossby wave modes, asymmetric forcing by the wind, and forcing by cross-equatorial southerly winds in the eastern Pacific. We propose a different mechanism to account for the observed asymmetric latitudinal structure of low-frequency equatorial Rossby waves. From the free-wave solutions of a simple 1.5-layer model, it is shown that meridional shears in the mean equatorial current system significantly alter the potential vorticity gradient in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The observed asymmetric structures of sea surface height and geostrophic velocity components are found to be a natural consequence of the shear modification of the potential vorticity gradient. The mean currents also reduce the predicted westward phase speed of first meridional mode Rossby waves, improving consistency with the observations.     

Dynamic evolution of the 1997–1999 El Niño–La Niña cycle in the southern California Current System

The development of the strongest El Niño event on record in the equatorial Pacific in 1997–1998 and the rapid transition to strong La Niña conditions in 1998–1999 had a large impact on the physical and biological environment of the West Coast. We investigate the evolution of the physical structure and circulation dynamics of the southern California Current System (CCS) during this period based on hydrographic data collected on 25 cruises over a 45-month period (February 1996–October 1999). The El Niño period was characterized by a significant increase in dynamic height, extreme water mass characteristics, a strengthening and broadening of the poleward nearshore flow, and a temporary reversal of net alongshore transport. By early 1999, conditions in the CCS had reversed. The data suggest that remotely driven forcing (propagating oceanic waves) contributed to the anomalies observed during the El Niño period, while the cool-water conditions of 1999 were most likely a result of anomalous local atmospheric forcing.     

1997–1998 El Niño off Peru: A numerical study

An eddy-resolving numerical simulation for the Peru–Chile system between 1993 and 2000 is analyzed, mainly for the 1997–1998 El Niño. Atmospheric and lateral oceanic forcings are realistic and contain a wide range of scales from days to interannual. The solution is validated against altimetric observations and the few in situ observations available. The simulated 1997–1998 El Niño closely resembles the real 1997–1998 El Niño in its time sequence of events. The two well-marked, sea-level peaks in May–June and November–December 1997 are reproduced with amplitudes close to those observed. Other sub-periods of the El Niño seem to be captured adequately. Simple dynamical analyses are performed to explain the 1997–1998 evolution of the upwelling in the model. The intensity of the upwelling appears to be determined by an interplay between alongshore, poleward advection (related to coastal trapped waves) and wind intensity, but also by the cross-shore geostrophic flow and distribution of the water masses on a scale of 1000 km or more (involving Rossby waves westward propagation and advection from equatorial currents). In particular, the delay of upwelling recovery until fall 1998 (i.e., well after the second El Niño peak) is partly due to the persistent advection of offshore stratified water toward the coast of Peru. Altimetry data suggest that these interpretations of the numerical solution also apply to the real ocean.     

Interdecadal Variations of ENSO Signals and Annual Cycles Revealed by Wavelet Analysis

Interdecadal variations of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals and annual cycles appearing in the sea surface temperature (SST) and zonal wind in the equatorial Pacific during 1950–1997 are studied by wavelet, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses. The typical timescale of ENSO is estimated to be about 40 months before the late 1970s and 48–52 months after that; the timescale increased by about 10 months. The spatial pattern of the ENSO signal appearing in SST also changed in the 1970s; before that, the area of strong signal spread over the extratropical regions, while it is confined near the equator after that. The center of the strongest signal shifted from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to the South American coast at that time. These SST fluctuations near the equator are associated with fluctuations of zonal wiond, whose spatial pattern also shifted considerably eastward at that time. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, amplitudes of annual cycles of SST are weak in El Niño years and strong in La Niña years. This relation is not clear, however, in the 1980s and 1990s.     

A poleward jet and an equatorward undercurrent observed off Oregon and northern California, during the 1997–98 El Niño

The timing and intensity of the effects of the 1997–98 El Niño on sea-surface temperature (SST) and coastal sea level along the US west coast are examined using in situ time-series measurements, and the effects on upper ocean currents on the continental shelf and slope off Oregon and northern California are examined using repeated shipborne ADCP transects, a mid-shelf mooring off Newport Oregon and an HF surface current radar. An initial transient positive anomaly was observed in both adjusted sea level and SST during May–June 1997, followed by anomalously high coastal sea levels, generally strongest during September 1997 through February 1998 and abruptly returned to normal in late February 1998, and by positive temperatures anomalies over the mid-shelf that persisted longer, into April 1998. Low-frequency coastal sea-level anomalies propagated poleward at 2.1 m/s. Poleward flow over the shelf and slope was enhanced at most depths during the El Niño, compared with following years. Northward currents in the upper 12 m over the continental shelf off Newport, Oregon averaged 13.7 cm/s stronger during August 1997 through February 1998 than during the same period the following year. Enhanced poleward flow was present at all latitudes sampled during November 1997 and February 1998, particularly over the continental slope. These transects also provided clear views of a fall/winter equatorward undercurrent, which was both strongest and had the most alongshore similarity of form, during the ENSO. Finally, subsurface-intensified anticyclonic eddies originating in the poleward undercurrent appear to be a recurrent feature of the circulation off Newport late in the upwelling season.     

Biological and chemical consequences of the 1997–1998 El Niño in central California waters

The physical, chemical and biological perturbations in central California waters associated with the strong 1997–1998 El Niño are described and explained on the basis of time series collected from ships, moorings, tide gauges and satellites. The evolution of El Niño off California closely followed the pattern observed in the tropical Pacific. In June 1997 an anomalous influx of warm southerly waters, with weak signatures on coastal sea level and thermocline depth, marked the onset of El Niño in central California. The timing was consistent with propagation from the tropics via the equatorial and coastal wave-guide. By late 1997, the classical stratified ocean condition with a deep thermocline, high sea level, and warm sea surface temperature (SST) commonly associated with El Niño dominated the coastal zone. During the first half of 1998 the core of the California Current, which is normally detected several hundred kilometers from shore as a river of low salinity, low nutrient water, was hugging the coast. High nutrient, productive waters that occur in a north–south band from the coast to approximately 200 km offshore during cool years disappeared during El Niño. The nitrate in surface waters was less than 20% of normal and new production was reduced by close to 70%. The La Niña recovery phase began in the fall of 1998 when SSTs dropped below normal, and ocean productivity rebounded to higher than normal levels. The reduction in coastal California primary productivity associated with El Niño was estimated to be 50 million metric tons of carbon (5×10¹³ g C). This reduction certainly had deleterious effects on zooplankton, fish, and marine mammals. The 1992–1993 El Niño was more moderate than the 1997–1998 event, but because its duration was longer, its overall chemical and biological impact may have been comparable. How strongly the ecosystem responds to El Niño appears related to the longer-term background climatic state of the Pacific Ocean. The 1982–1983 and 1992–1993 El Niños occurred during the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The PDO may have changed sign during the 1997–1998 El Niño, resulting in weaker ecological effects than would otherwise have been predicted based on the strength of the temperature anomaly.     

Pacific tropical–extratropical thermocline water mass exchanges in the NCAR Coupled Climate System Model v.3

In this study we document how model biases in extratropical surface wind and precipitation, due to ocean–atmosphere coupling, are communicated to the equatorial Pacific thermocline through Pacific Subtropical Cell (STC) pathways. We compare the simulation of climate mean Pacific Subtropical Cells (STCs) in the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) to observations and to an uncoupled ocean simulation (the ocean component of the CCSM3 forced by observed wind stress and surface fluxes). We use two versions of the CCSM3 with atmospheric resolution of 2.8° (T42) and 1.4° (T85) to investigate whether the climate mean STCs are sensitive to the resolution of the atmospheric model.Since STCs provide water that maintains the equatorial thermocline, we first document biases in equatorial temperature and salinity fields. We then investigate to what extent these biases are due to the simulation of extratropical–tropical water mass exchanges in the coupled models. We demonstrate that the coupled models’ cold and fresh bias in the equatorial thermocline is due to the subduction of significantly fresher and colder water in the South Pacific. This freshening is due to too much precipitation in the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Lagrangian trajectories of water that flows to the equatorial thermocline are calculated to demonstrate that the anomalously large potential vorticity barriers in the coupled simulations in both the North and South Pacific prevent water in the lower thermocline from reaching the equator. The equatorial thermocline is shown to be primarily maintained by water that subducts in the subtropical South Pacific in both the coupled and uncoupled simulations. It is shown that the zonally integrated transport convergence at the equator in the subsurface branch of the climate mean STCs is well simulated in the uncoupled ocean model. However, coupling reduces the net equatorward pycnocline transport by 4 Sv at 9°S and 1 Sv at 9°N. An increase in the atmospheric resolution from T42 to T85 results in more realistic equatorial trades and off-equatorial convergence zones.     

The near surface tropical Atlantic in 1982–1984: Results from a numerical simulation and a data analysis

Isotherm vertical displacements within the thermocline and surface currents were investigated in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from 12°N to 12°S in 1982–1984, the period of the FOCAL-SEQUAL experiment. The study is based on a numerical simulation of an oceanic general circulation model tuned for the study of the equatorial regions, and on the analysis of the large scale thermocline displacements and currents using observed temperature profiles. Ground truth is provided by temperature and currents from moorings, records from inverted echo sounders and tide gauges as well as from drifting buoys. Comparison of the analysis with the ground truth shows that some important aspects of the low frequency variability are “captured” by the analysis when the data base is large enough.On large scales, the simulation generally resembles the analysis. Along the equator, the upwelling signal propagates eastward. The seasonal set-up of the westerly winds is associated with large westward currents, and a following overshoot of the zonal dynamic topography. Otherwise, the zonal dynamic topography is in near-equilibrium with the winds. The North Equatorial Countercurrent is portrayed comparably in the analysis and the simulation, where, after starting as a narrow eastward flow near 5°N, it extends northward through the northern summer. Interannual variations are found both in the analysis and the simulation. In particular, the thermocline flattened early in 1984.However, the simulation differs in significant respects from the real world: the equatorial undercurrent is too weak in the east and the model produces too much variability south of the equator. The 20°C isotherm is too shallow above the core of the thermocline, and the surface layer is too stratified. Because the surface layer is where the wind stress, main forcing of the model is applied, major effort will have to be devoted to parameterizing the near-surface downward mixing of momentum, heat and fresh water.     

A nitrate and silicate budget in the equatorial Pacific Ocean: a coupled physical–biological model study

A coupled physical–biological model was developed to simulate the low-silicate, high-nitrate, and low-chlorophyll (LSHNLC) conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and used to compute a detailed budget in the Wyrtki box (5°N–5°S, 180–90°W) for the major sources and cycling of nitrogen and silicon in the equatorial Pacific. With the incorporation of biogenic silicon dissolution, NH₄ regeneration from organic nitrogen and nitrification of ammonia in the model, we show that silicon recycling in the upper ocean is less efficient than nitrogen. As the major source of nutrients to the equatorial Pacific, the Equatorial Undercurrent provides slightly less Si(OH)₄ than NO₃ to the upwelling zone, which is defined as 2.5°N–2.5°S. As a result, the equatorial upwelling supplies less Si(OH)₄ than NO₃ into the euphotic zone in the Wyrtki box, having a Si/N supply ratio of about 0.85 (2.5 vs. 2.96 mmolm⁻² day⁻¹). More Si(OH)₄ than NO₃ is taken up with a Si/N ratio of 1.17 (2.72 vs. 2.33 mmolm⁻² day⁻¹) within the euphotic zone. The difference between upwelling supply and biological uptake is balanced by nutrient regeneration and horizontal advection. Excluding regeneration, the net silicate and nitrate uptakes are nearly equal (1.76 vs. 1.84 mmolm⁻² day⁻¹). However, biogenic silica export production is slightly higher than organic nitrogen (1.74 vs. 1.59 mmolm⁻² day⁻¹) following a 1.1 Si/N ratio. In the central equatorial Pacific, low silicate concentrations limit diatom growth; therefore non-diatom new production accounts for most of the new production. Higher silicate supply in the east maintains elevated diatom growth rates and new production associated with diatoms dominate upwelling zone. In contrast, the new production associated with small phytoplankton is nearly constant or decreases eastward along the equator. The total new production has a higher rate in the east than in the west, following the pattern of surface silicate. This suggests that silicate regulates the diatom production, total new production, and thereby carbon cycle in this area. The modeled mean primary production is 48.4 mmolCm⁻² day⁻¹, representing the lower end of direct field measurements, while new production is 15.0 mmolCm⁻² day⁻¹, which compares well with previous estimates.     

ENSO variability and the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) encompasses variability in both the eastern and western tropical Pacific. During the warm phase of ENSO, the eastern tropical Pacific is characterized by equatorial positive sea surface temperature (SST) and negative sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies, while the western tropical Pacific is marked by off-equatorial negative SST and positive SLP anomalies. Corresponding to this distribution are equatorial westerly wind anomalies in the central Pacific and equatorial easterly wind anomalies in the far western Pacific. Occurrence of ENSO has been explained as either a self-sustained, naturally oscillatory mode of the coupled ocean–atmosphere system or a stable mode triggered by stochastic forcing. Whatever the case, ENSO involves the positive ocean–atmosphere feedback hypothesized by Bjerknes. After an El Niño reaches its mature phase, negative feedbacks are required to terminate growth of the mature El Niño anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific. Four requisite negative feedbacks have been proposed: reflected Kelvin waves at the ocean western boundary, a discharge process due to Sverdrup transport, western Pacific wind-forced Kelvin waves, and anomalous zonal advections. These negative feedbacks may work together for terminating El Niño, with their relative importance being time-dependent.ENSO variability is most pronounced along the equator and the coast of Ecuador and Peru. However, the eastern tropical Pacific also includes a warm pool north of the equator where important variability occurs. Seasonally, ocean advection seems to play an important role for SST variations of the eastern Pacific warm pool. Interannual variability in the eastern Pacific warm pool may be largely due to a direct oceanic connection with the ENSO variability at the equator. Variations in temperature, stratification, insolation, and productivity associated with ENSO have implications for phytoplankton productivity and for fish, birds, and other organisms in the region. Long-term changes in ENSO variability may be occurring and are briefly discussed. This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific.