基于饱和渗透系数空间变异结构的斜坡渗流及失稳特征

以往研究一般采用单随机变量方法（SRV）或基于水平或垂直方向波动范围生成的空间变异随机场来模拟岩土参数的空间变异性,对具有倾斜定向特征的空间变异随机场未有涉及.基于条件模拟相关理论和非侵入式随机有限元的理论框架,提出了利用序贯高斯模拟方法进行斜坡参数条件随机场模拟并运用有限元方法进行斜坡渗流和稳定性分析的方法.针对理想边坡,对各向同性和几何各向异性的共7种空间变异结构的饱和渗透系数（K_s）各进行了200次条件随机场模拟,基于条件随机场模拟结果进行了有限元渗流和稳定性计算,对每种空间变异结构多次计算结果进行了统计分析.结果表明:本文所提出的方法不仅再现了研究区域参数的空间二阶统计特性,通过设定变异函数参数进行不同空间变异类型、变异程度、变异定向性的随机场模拟,同时利用现场观测数据对随机场模拟结果进行条件限制,从而提高了随机场的赋值精度;K_s的空间变异结构对孔隙水压力的分布规律、地下水位线变化范围、稳定性系数和最危险滑动面分布特征均有一定程度的影响.本研究为库岸斜坡稳定性评价提供方法支撑.      

Deterministic estimation of hydrological thresholds for shallow landslide initiation and slope stability models: case study from the Somma-Vesuvius area of southern Italy

Rainfall-induced debris flows involving ash-fall pyroclastic deposits that cover steep mountain slopes surrounding the Somma-Vesuvius volcano are natural events and a source of risk for urban settlements located at footslopes in the area. This paper describes experimental methods and modelling results of shallow landslides that occurred on 5–6 May 1998 in selected areas of the Sarno Mountain Range. Stratigraphical surveys carried out in initiation areas show that ash-fall pyroclastic deposits are discontinuously distributed along slopes, with total thicknesses that vary from a maximum value on slopes inclined less than 30° to near zero thickness on slopes inclined greater than 50°. This distribution of cover thickness influences the stratigraphical setting and leads to downward thinning and the pinching out of pyroclastic horizons. Three engineering geological settings were identified, in which most of the initial landslides that triggered debris flows occurred in May 1998 can be classified as (1) knickpoints, characterised by a downward progressive thinning of the pyroclastic mantle; (2) rocky scarps that abruptly interrupt the pyroclastic mantle; and (3) road cuts in the pyroclastic mantle that occur in a critical range of slope angle. Detailed topographic and stratigraphical surveys coupled with field and laboratory tests were conducted to define geometric, hydraulic and mechanical features of pyroclastic soil horizons in the source areas and to carry out hydrological numerical modelling of hillslopes under different rainfall conditions. The slope stability for three representative cases was calculated considering the real sliding surface of the initial landslides and the pore pressures during the infiltration process. The hydrological modelling of hillslopes demonstrated localised increase of pore pressure, up to saturation, where pyroclastic horizons with higher hydraulic conductivity pinch out and the thickness of pyroclastic mantle reduces or is interrupted. These results lead to the identification of a comprehensive hydrogeomorphological model of susceptibility to initial landslides that links morphological, stratigraphical and hydrological conditions. The calculation of intensities and durations of rainfall necessary for slope instability allowed the identification of deterministic hydrological thresholds that account for uncertainty in properties and observed rainfall intensities.     

Risk analysis of landslides – A case study

The effects of uncertainty due to the variability of soil parameters on the risk of landsliding in the Himalayan region are investigated using a random field model combined with slope stability analyses. Effects of spatial variability both in horizontal and vertical directions, number of test samples, variations in piezometric level and the influence of earthquake on the reliability of a typical slope in a slide area are investigated. The results show that the reliability of slopes in the slide area is significantly affected by the coefficients of variation of soil parameters, spatial variations of soil parameters, number of test samples and piezometric variations. The results also show that the assumption of isotropic variations to assess slope reliability isconservative. The results of the study are useful in providing guidelines and pointing to remedial measures in the form of sub-surface drainage to improve slope reliability in the area.     

Volume estimate of flow-type landslides along carbonatic and volcanic slopes in Campania (Southern Italy)

Recent studies on flow-type landslides in pyroclastic deposits have been performed to identify potential source areas and the main depositional mechanisms. Interesting methods for mapping landslide susceptibility have also been proposed. Since the potential volume of flow-type landslides is a measure of event magnitude, hence of considerable use in hazard assessment, we propose a method to estimate the potential volume for the morphometric analysis of 213 flow-like landslides occurred in Campania in recent centuries. First, our data show that the height, H, of the detachment and erosion-transport zones (i.e. the difference in height between the top of source area and a point, the first break at the foot of the slope, where the deposition stars to take place and the landslide loses velocity) and the area, A _f, of the same zones are linked by a mathematical function. Secondly, only part of the entire thickness of the pyroclastic material on the slope is involved. To define the potential volumes of the flow-type landslides, we analysed slopes, both in volcanic and carbonatic contexts, considering both channelled and unchannelled flow-type landslides. The most susceptible areas are identified by using a landslide-triggering susceptibility map, and then in each case the height H was estimated. This height is the difference in level between the point on the slope with highest susceptibility and the first break at the foot of the slope. Using the statistical correlation between H and A _f, both calculated for historical landslides, we evaluate the area of a potential landslide on a slope. Finally, potential volumes are calculated by using A _f and a constant thickness of the pyroclastic cover for the whole slope. This method could represent a useful tool to detect the main areas where risk mitigation works are required.     

Effects of anisotropy in correlation structure on the stability of an undrained clay slope

Slopes are mainly naturally occurred deposits, so slope stability is highly affected by inherent uncertainty. In this paper, the influence of heterogeneity of undrained shear strength on the performance of a clay slope is investigated. A numerical procedure for a probabilistic slope stability analysis based on a Monte Carlo simulation that considers the spatial variability of the soil properties is presented to assess the influence of randomly distributed undrained shear strength and to compute reliability as a function of safety factor. In the proposed method, commercially available finite difference numerical code FLAC 5.0 is merged with random field theory. The results obtained in this study are useful to understand the effect of undrained shear strength variations in slope stability analysis under different slope conditions and material properties. Coefficient of variation and heterogeneity anisotropy of undrained shear strength were proven to have significant effect on the reliability of safety factor calculations. However, it is shown that anisotropy of the heterogeneity has a dual effect on reliability index depending on the level of safety factor adopted.     

Reduction of slope stability uncertainty based on hydraulic measurement via inverse analysis

The determination of slope stability for existing slopes is challenging, partly due to the spatial variability of soils. Reliability-based design can incorporate uncertainties and yield probabilities of slope failure. Field measurements can be utilised to constrain probabilistic analyses, thereby reducing uncertainties and generally reducing the calculated probabilities of failure. A method to utilise pore pressure measurements, to first reduce the spatial uncertainty of hydraulic conductivity, by using inverse analysis linked to the Ensemble Kalman Filter, is presented. Subsequently, the hydraulic conductivity has been utilised to constrain uncertainty in strength parameters, usually leading to an increase in the calculated slope reliability.     

Field variability of landslide model parameters

 A data set of parameters (slope, soil depth and soil shear strength) relevant to spatially distributed modelling of shallow landslides triggered by rain and snowmelt events was determined from field measurements in 250 grid elements of dimensions 25 m (downslope)×10 m (across slope) in an area of 250 m×250 m on a hillslope in Scotland. These data provide an unusually detailed basis for the evaluation of spatial variability and uncertainty in model parameterisation. The variations in slope and soil strength are represented adequately by normal distributions; a Weibull distribution is suggested for the soil depth data. The factor of safety calculated at each point in the grid was shown partially to identify observed landslides, with a number of false predictions of occurrence. Trend analysis and semivariogram analysis of the data set suggest that the use of kriging could improve upon this approach to landslide prediction by providing areal estimates of parameters at the grid element scale with associated error bounds. Received: 30 October 1996 · Accepted: 25 June 1997     

基于FELA的随机场方法在考虑降雨入渗的边坡开挖稳定性分析中的应用

黑山共和国南北高速公路项目部分路段处于复理石地区,降雨集中、空间变异性显著且分层分布的岩土体给道路边坡施工带来了挑战。条分法、常规有限元法等确定性分析方法不能考虑岩土材料的不确定性,给出的具有唯一性、确定性的结果不能反映边坡稳定的不确定性。以该工程某边坡为例,采用有限元极限分析方法（FELA）,考虑岩土材料强度的空间变异性,利用上下限解法得出安全系数的分布区间。由勘察资料得到材料均值、标准差和空间相关长度并重建描述抗剪强度指标的二维随机场,同时考虑开挖岩层的节理分布,分析边坡在分级开挖过程中,各施工步骤的稳定性和破坏模式。与有限元分析结果相比,随机场条件下,部分情况开挖阶段安全系数低于限值,并出现局部破坏和整体破坏两种形式。结合不饱和土理论,模拟暴雨情况下雨水的入渗深度并在饱和区采用降低后的强度参数重新计算。通过蒙特卡洛模拟,得到各工况下安全系数、滑动体体积、挡墙弯矩和锚杆内力的概率密度分布函数。挡墙结构约束土体的变形,使得破坏模式趋向于整体破坏,安全系数分布区间变小。锚杆能带动更多土体进入工作状态,同样约束安全系数分布区间。旱季施工与雨季施工边坡破坏区域不同,同等支护条件下,雨季边坡安全系数分布区间更大,且均值明显降低。      

Conditional simulation of USLE/RUSLE soil erodibility factor by geostatistics in a Mediterranean Catchment,Turkey

Soil erosion is a major environmental problem that threatens the sustainability and productivity of agricultural areas. Assessment and mapping of soil erosion are extremely important in the management and conservation of natural resources. The universal soil loss equation (USLE/RUSLE) is an erosion model that predicts soil loss as a function of soil erodibility (K-factor), as well as topographic, rainfall, cover, and management factors. The traditional approach assumes that one soil erodibility value represents the entire area of each soil series. Therefore, that approach does not account for spatial variability of soil series. This study was carried out to evaluate the use of the sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) for mapping soil erodibility factor of the USLE/RUSLE methodology. Five hundred and forty-four surface soil samples (0–20 cm) were collected from the study area to determine the soil erodibility. A simulation procedure was carried out on 300 realizations, and histogram and semivariogram of the simulation were compared to the observed values. The results showed that the summary statistics, histogram, and semivariogram of the simulation results were close to the observed values. In contrary to the traditional approach and kriging, 95% confidence interval of the simulated realizations was formed in order to determine uncertainty standard deviation map, and the uncertainty was explained numerically. The SGS produced a more reliable soil erodibility map and it can be more successfully used for monitoring and improving effective strategies to prevent erosion hazards especially to improve site specific management plans.     

贵州贞丰—关岭花江喀斯特石漠化地区土壤厚度的空间分布特征

土壤厚度与石漠化发展程度有着密切的关系,土壤也是石漠化地区生态恢复以及农业生产的基础。为了研究典型高原峡谷中-强度石漠化地区的土壤厚度空间分布规律,在土壤厚度野外调查的基础上,利用地统计学方法分析了贵州典型石漠化地区——贞丰—关岭花江小流域土壤厚度空间分布特征及主要影响因素。结果表明:（1）研究区土壤平均厚度仅为26 cm,土壤平均厚度表现为坡耕地>荒地>林地;（2）土壤厚度空间变异性以强度为主,荒地的土壤厚度空间分布连续程度优于林地和坡耕地,林地的土壤厚度空间分布有明显突变性,坡耕地的土壤厚度具有点状分布特征,有耕作物附近土壤厚度较大;（3）土壤厚度与海拔、基岩裸露率、坡度之间均有明显负相关关系;（4）自然和人为因素综合影响下的土壤强侵蚀是研究区土壤厚度分布极为不均的主要原因,对该区域石漠化的治理可以采用工程措施与生物措施相结合的方法。研究结果对研究区石漠化因地制宜地防治及其他地区水土流失防治、生态恢复、农业合理生产具有一定的参考价值。     

Reliability bearing capacity analysis of footings on cohesive soil slopes using RFEM

Reliability analysis of bearing capacity of a strip footing at the crest of a simple slope with cohesive soil was carried out using the random finite element method (RFEM). Analyses showed that the coefficient of variation and the spatial correlation length of soil cohesion can have a large influence on footing bearing capacity, particularly for slopes with large height to footing width ratios. The paper demonstrates cases where a footing satisfies a deterministic design factor of safety of 3 but the probability of design failure is unacceptably high. Isotropic and anisotropic spatial variability of the soil strength was also considered.     

A study of the correlation between electrical resistivity and matric suction for unsaturated ash-fall pyroclastic soils in the Campania region (southern Italy)

In the territory of the Campania region (southern Italy), critical rainfall events periodically trigger dangerous fast slope movements involving ashy and pyroclastic soils originated by the explosive phases of the Mt. Somma-Vesuvius volcano and deposited along the surrounding mountain ranges. In this paper, an integration of engineering-geological and geophysical measurements is presented to characterize unsaturated pyroclastic samples collected in a test area on the Sarno Mountains (Salerno and Avellino provinces, Campania region). The laboratory analyses were aimed at defining both soil water retention and electrical resistivity curves versus water content. From the matching of the experimental data, a direct relationship between electrical resistivity and matric suction is retrieved for the investigated soil horizons typical of an ash-fall pyroclastic succession. The obtained relation turns out to be helpful in characterizing soils up to close saturation, which is a critical condition for the trigger of slope failure. In such a regime, the water content and the matric suction have small variations, while electrical resistivity variations can be appreciated in a larger range of values. For this reason, besides suction measurements on very small soil volumes through classical tensiometers, our analyses suggest the direct monitoring of in situ electrical resistivity values as an effective tool to recognise the hydrological state of larger and more representative soil volumes and to improve early warning of dangerous slope movements.     

Multiple response surfaces for slope reliability analysis

This paper develops a multiple response surfaces approach to approximate the limit state function for slope failure by second‐order polynomial functions, to incorporate the variation of the most probable slip surfaces, and to evaluate the slope failure probability p_f. The proposed methodology was illustrated through a cohesive soil slope example. It is shown that the p_f values estimated from multiple response surfaces agree well with those p_f values that have been obtained by searching a large number of potential slip surfaces in each Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) sample. The variation of number of the most probable slip surfaces is studied at different scale of fluctuation (λ) values. It is found that when full correlation assumed for each of random fields (i.e., spatial variability is ignored), the number of the most probable slip surfaces is equal to the number of random fields (in this study, it is 3). When the spatial variability grows significantly, the number of the most probable slip surfaces or number of multiple response surfaces firstly increases evidently to a higher value and then varies slightly. In addition, the contribution of a specific most probable slip surface varies dramatically at different spatial variability level, and therefore, the variation of the most probable slip surfaces should be accounted for in the reliability analysis. The multiple response surfaces approach developed in this paper provides a limit equilibrium method and MCS‐based means to incorporate such a variation of the most probable slip surfaces in slope reliability analysis. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Bayesian framework for updating model parameters while considering spatial variability

The study presents a recent slope failure in India which resulted in the burial of a village and claimed large number of lives. Current methods of probabilistic back analysis incorporate uncertainty in the analysis but do not consider spatial variability. In this study, back analysis is performed using Bayesian analysis in conjunction with random field theory. The probabilistic method is shown to be efficient in back-analysing a slope failure. It also provides confidence in parameter values to be used for post-failure slope design. The back analysis method which does not consider spatial variability overestimates the uncertainty in analysis, which can lead to uneconomical slope remediation design and measures.     

Manifestation of remote sensing data and GIS on landslide hazard analysis using spatial-based statistical models

This paper presents landslide hazard analysis at Cameron area, Malaysia, using a geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing data. Landslide locations were identified from interpretation of aerial photographs and field surveys. Topographical and geological data and satellite images were collected, processed, and constructed into a spatial database using GIS and image processing. The factors chosen that influence landslide occurrence are topographic slope, topographic aspect, topographic curvature, and distance to rivers, all from the topographic database; lithology and distance to faults were taken from the geologic database; land cover from TM satellite image; the vegetation index value was taken from Landsat images; and precipitation distribution from meteorological data. Landslide hazard area was analyzed and mapped using the landslide occurrence factors by frequency ratio and bivariate logistic regression models. The results of the analysis were verified using the landslide location data and compared with the probabilistic models. The validation results showed that the frequency ratio model (accuracy is 89.25%) is better in prediction of landslide than bivariate logistic regression (accuracy is 85.73%) model.     

Effect of antecedent-hydrological conditions on rainfall triggering of debris flows in ash-fall pyroclastic mantled slopes of Campania (southern Italy)

Mountainous areas surrounding the Campanian Plain and the Somma-Vesuvius volcano (southern Italy) are among the most risky areas of Italy due to the repeated occurrence of rainfall-induced debris flows along ash-fall pyroclastic soil-mantled slopes. In this geomorphological framework, rainfall patterns, hydrological processes taking place within multi-layered ash-fall pyroclastic deposits and soil antecedent moisture status are the principal factors to be taken into account to assess triggering rainfall conditions and the related hazard. This paper presents the outcomes of an experimental study based on integrated analyses consisting of the reconstruction of physical models of landslides, in situ hydrological monitoring, and hydrological and slope stability modeling, carried out on four representative source areas of debris flows that occurred in May 1998 in the Sarno Mountain Range. The hydrological monitoring was carried out during 2011 using nests of tensiometers and Watermark pressure head sensors and also through a rainfall and air temperature recording station. Time series of measured pressure head were used to calibrate a hydrological numerical model of the pyroclastic soil mantle for 2011, which was re-run for a 12-year period beginning in 2000, given the availability of rainfall and air temperature monitoring data. Such an approach allowed us to reconstruct the regime of pressure head at a daily time scale for a long period, which is representative of about 11 hydrologic years with different meteorological conditions. Based on this simulated time series, average winter and summer hydrological conditions were chosen to carry out hydrological and stability modeling of sample slopes and to identify Intensity-Duration rainfall thresholds by a deterministic approach. Among principal results, the opposing winter and summer antecedent pressure head (soil moisture) conditions were found to exert a significant control on intensity and duration of rainfall triggering events. Going from winter to summer conditions requires a strong increase of intensity and/or duration to induce landslides. The results identify an approach to account for different hazard conditions related to seasonality of hydrological processes inside the ash-fall pyroclastic soil mantle. Moreover, they highlight another important factor of uncertainty that potentially affects rainfall thresholds triggering shallow landslides reconstructed by empirical approaches.     

Assessing the risk of soil vulnerability to wind erosion through conditional simulation of soil water content in Sistan plain, Iran

Surface soil water content (SWC) is one of the key factors controlling wind erosion in Sistan plain, southeast of Iran. Knowledge of the spatial variability of surface SWC is then important to identify high-risk areas over the region. Sequential Gaussian simulation (SGSIM) is used to produce a series of equiprobable models of SWC spatial distribution across the study area. The simulated realizations are used to model the uncertainty attached to the surface SWC estimates through producing a probability map of not exceeding a specified critical threshold when soil becomes vulnerable to wind erosion. The results show that SGSIM is a suitable approach for modelling SWC uncertainty, generating realistic representations of the spatial distribution of SWC that honour the sample data and reproduce the sample semivariogram model. The uncertainty model obtained using SGSIM is compared with the model achieved through sequential indicator simulation (SISIM). According to accuracy plots, goodness statistics and probability interval width plots, SGSIM performs better for modelling local uncertainty than SISIM. Sequential simulation provided a probabilistic approach to assess the risk that SWC does not exceed a critical threshold that might cause soil vulnerability to wind erosion. The resulted risk map can be used in decision-making to delineate “vulnerable” areas where a treatment is needed.     

岩土体力学参数空间分布下的滑坡稳定性数值计算方法

滑坡岩土体强度参数具有空间变异性,采用统一强度参数进行数值建模计算不能很好地体现这一客观性质对结果的影响.本文提出一种考虑岩土体力学参数空间分布下的滑坡数值建模方法,通过对滑坡地形地貌和有限的勘察数据进行控制边界下的插值补充,形成参数分布云图,结合Visual Basic和FISH编程将差异分布的参数加载到数值网格模型中,使理论模型和实际更接近.算例分析结果表明该方法可行,能更准确显示出滑体变形破坏部位及特征,对后期变形监测和治理有指导意义.     

Distribution characteristics and its influencing factors of active layer thickness in Tanggula area on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau北大核心CSCD

多年冻土区活动层的冻融过程显著影响地-气间的水热交换、地表水文过程、冰缘地貌演变及寒区工程建设。活动层厚度的空间分异规律及其空间分布的准确模拟计算是冻土学研究的基础和核心问题之一。作为青藏高原中部东西走向最大的山脉和青藏高原多年冻土的主要分布区,唐古拉地区是青藏高原南部湿润区与北部干旱区的过渡区,该地区的活动层厚度空间分异规律研究对于揭示青藏高原多年冻土区活动层厚度整体空间分布规律具有重要意义。利用唐古拉地区南、北坡两个区域野外实测活动层厚度分布数据,分析了该区域活动层厚度的空间分异特征及其主要影响因素。结果表明,活动层厚度分布的突出特点是空间分异巨大,最小值仅为1.2 m,最大值达到5.6 m。以不同植被类型区活动层的平均厚度为对比标准,其分布特征为：沼泽草甸<高寒草甸<高寒荒漠<高寒草原,高寒草原的平均活动层厚度最大。对比南、北坡,南坡活动层厚度普遍大于北坡。Stefan方程的计算结果表明,活动层厚度的变化速率随土壤含水率的变化最大,其次为土壤热导率,而随地表融化指数的变化最小。实测土壤含水率、探坑数据及地表融化指数与活动层厚度分布关系表明,影响活动层厚度空间分异的最为敏感的因素为土壤含水率,其次为土壤热导率,地表融化指数的敏感性最小。     

考虑参数空间变异性多层土坡系统可靠度分析

多层土坡在岩土工程实际中十分常见,不仅土体参数存在一定的空间变异性,而且土体框架呈现明显的层状分布特征,然而目前对考虑土体参数空间变异性的多层土坡稳定可靠度研究的远远不够。提出了基于多重响应面边坡系统可靠度分析的蒙特卡洛模拟（MCS）方法,给出了计算流程图,系统地研究了考虑土体参数空间变异性的多层土坡系统可靠度问题。结果表明,提出方法能够有效地分析考虑参数空间变异性低失效概率水平的多层土坡系统可靠度问题,并且具有较高的参数敏感性分析计算效率。