Rockfall hazard assessment along a road in the Sorrento Peninsula,Campania, southern Italy

Rockfalls are common in the steep and vertical slopes of the Campania carbonate massifs and ridges, and frequently represent the main threat to the anthropogenic environment, potentially damaging urban areas, scattered houses, roads, etc. Despite the generally limited volumes involved, the high velocity of movement (from few to tens of metres per second) poses rockfalls among the most dangerous natural hazards to man. Evaluating the rockfall hazard is not an easy task, due to the high number of involved factors, and particularly to the difficulty in determining the properties of the rock mass. In this paper, we illustrate the assessment of the rockfall hazard along a small area of the Sorrento Peninsula (Campania region, southern Italy). Choice of the site was determined by the presence of a road heavily frequented by vehicles. In the area, we have carried out detailed field surveys and software simulations that allow generating simple rockfall hazard maps. Over twenty measurement stations for geo-mechanical characterization of the rock mass have been distributed along a 400-m-long slope of Mount Vico Alvano. Following the internationally established standards for the acquisition of rock mass parameters, the main kinematics have been recognized, and the discontinuity families leading to the different failures identified. After carrying out field experiments by artificially releasing a number of unstable blocks on the rock cliff, the rockfall trajectories along the slope were modelled using 2-D and 3-D programs for rockfall analysis. The results were exploited to evaluate the rockfall hazard along the threatened element at risk.     

Shallow landslides in pyroclastic soils: a distributed modelling approach for hazard assessment

An effective assessment of shallow landslide hazard requires spatially distributed modelling of triggering processes. This is possible by using physically based models that allow us to simulate the transient hydrological and geotechnical processes responsible for slope instability. Some simplifications are needed to address the lack of data and the difficulty of calibration over complex terrain at the catchment's scale. We applied two simple hydrological models, coupled with the infinite slope stability analysis, to the May 1998 landslide event in Sarno, Southern Italy. A quasi-dynamic model (Barling et al., 1994) was used to model the contribution to instability of lateral flow by simulating the time-dependent formation of a groundwater table in response to rainfall. A diffusion model [Water Resour. Res. 36 (2000) 1897] was used to model the role of vertical flux by simulating groundwater pressures that develop in response to heavy rainstorms. The quasi-dynamic model overestimated the slope instability over the whole area (more than 16%) but was able to predict correctly slope instability within zero order basins where landslides occurred and developed into large debris flows. The diffusion model simulated correctly the triggering time of more than 70% of landslides within an unstable area amounting to 7.3% of the study area. These results support the hypothesis that both vertical and lateral fluxes were responsible for landslide triggering during the Sarno event, and confirm the utility of such models as tools for hazard planning and land management.     

我国新疆北部积雪中痕量元素的时空分布及污染评估

积雪中记录的痕量元素含量,能很好地评估当地大气污染状况。利用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪（ICP-MS）,对2018年1月和3月采自新疆北部的天山北坡、伊犁河谷、塔城地区和阿勒泰地区的积雪样品进行了16种痕量元素测试。结果表明：北疆地区积雪中痕量元素含量的平均值在0.06 ng·g^-1（Cd）～1 481.1 ng·g^-1（Al）之间。时间分布上,消融期多数痕量元素浓度低于积累期、稳定期;Pb、Cr等元素消融期含量高于其他时期,可能与外源输入有关。空间分布上,塔城地区和天山北坡的多数痕量元素含量高出伊犁河谷和阿勒泰地区1~3倍。与其他地区雪冰中痕量元素含量对比,发现新疆北部高出青藏高原北部1~3倍,与受人类活动影响较大的天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川相应痕量元素浓度接近,揭示了新疆北部积雪中痕量元素较高的浓度特征。元素富集系数表明,Fe、Be等元素主要来自地壳粉尘,Pb、Cd、Zn、As等元素呈显著富集（EFc>10）,受人类排放活动主导。结合后向气团轨迹分析,塔城地区的痕量元素可能受到哈萨克斯坦的影响,阿勒泰地区的痕量元素可能受到中亚、阿尔泰山南缘等地的影响,天山北坡与伊犁河谷主要受新疆本地气团的影响。     

雷州半岛地下水资源特征及开采潜力评价

为计算雷州半岛地下水资源量并评价其开采潜力,在分析雷州半岛水文地质条件的基础上,应用水文学与地下水动力学原理,建立雷州半岛地下水补给量和地下水允许开采量的计算模型.计算获得雷州半岛地下水的总补给量为67.79×108 m3/a,地下水允许开采量为50.19×108 m3/a,其中可供饮用或适当处理后可供饮用的地下水可开采量为48.92×108 m3/a,占地下水允许开采量的97.47%.2015年,雷州半岛各类地下水的实际开采量为9.82×108m3/a,地下水资源的开采潜力为40.37×108m3/a,开采程度总体较低,具有较大的开采潜力.     

Hydrodynamic modelling of the Amazon River: Factors of uncertainty

Hydrodynamic modelling of Amazonian rivers is still a difficult task. Access difficulties reduce the possibilities to acquire sufficient good data for the model calibration and validation. Current satellite radar technology allows measuring the altitude of water levels throughout the Amazon basin. In this study, we explore the potential usefulness of these data for hydrodynamic modelling of the Amazon and Napo Rivers in Peru. Simulations with a 1-D hydrodynamic model show that radar altimetry can constrain properly the calibration and the validation of the model if the river width is larger than 2500 m. However, sensitivity test of the model show that information about geometry of the river channel and about the water velocity are more relevant for hydrodynamic modelling. These two types of data that are still not easily available in the Amazon context.     

Applied geophysics for cover thickness mapping in the southern Thomson Orogen

Abstract

Potentially mineralised Paleozoic basement rocks in the southern Thomson Orogen region of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales are covered by varying thicknesses of Mesozoic to Cenozoic sediments. To assess cover thickness and methods for estimating depth to basement, we collected new airborne electromagnetic (AEM), seismic refraction, seismic reflection and audio-frequency magnetotelluric data and combined these with new depth to magnetic basement models from airborne magnetic line data and ground gravity data along selected transects. The results of these investigations over two borehole sites, GSQ Eulo 1 and GSQ Eulo 2, show that cover thickness can be reliably assessed to within the confidence limits of the various techniques, but that caveats exist regarding the application of each of the disciplines. These techniques are part of a rapid-deployment explorers’ toolbox of geophysical techniques that have been tested at two sites in Australia, the Stavely region of western Victoria, and now the southern Thomson Orogen in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. The results shown here demonstrate that AEM and ground geophysics, and to a lesser extent depth to magnetic source modelling, can produce reliable results when applied to the common exploration problem of determining cover thickness. The results demonstrate that portable seismic systems, designed for geotechnical site investigations, are capable of imaging basement below 300 m of unlithified Eromanga Basin cover as refraction and reflection data. The results of all methods provide much information about the nature of the basement–cover interface and basement at borehole sites in the southern Thomson Orogen, in that the basement is usually weathered, the interface has paleotopography, and it can be recognised by its density, natural gamma, magnetic susceptibility and electrical conductivity contrasts.     

Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously

Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. To cite this article: A. Patt et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Spatial Relations of Gold-Ore Deposits and Cretaceous Granitoid Magmatism in the Chukotka Peninsula

Analysis of the spatial relations of gold ore occurrences and the enclosing geological environment in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug (ChAO) has shown that Au–quartz ore occurrences in turbidites are located predominantly in areas of the Early Cretaceous granitoid magmatism with the thick collision-type continental crust. The Cu–Au porphyry deposits are located in areas with complete development of Early Cretaceous magmatism within the outer zone of the Okhotsk–Chukchi volcanoplutonic belt (OChVB). The Au–Ag epithermal deposits are located in the areas of the Late Cretaceous granitoid magmatism within the inner and outer zones of the OChVB. The prospects of island-arc complexes for searching for Kuroku-type Au-bearing ore objects are available.     

Incorporating conceptual and interpretation uncertainty to mineral prospectivity modelling

Prospectivity analyses are used to reduce the exploration search space for locating areas prospective for mineral deposits.The scale of a study and the type of mineral system associated with the deposit control the evidence layers used as proxies that represent critical ore genesis processes.In particular,knowledge-driven approaches(fuzzy logic)use a conceptual mineral systems model from which data proxies represent the critical components.These typically vary based on the scale of study and the type of mineral system being predicted.Prospectivity analyses utilising interpreted data to represent proxies for a mineral system model inherit the subjectivity of the interpretations and the uncertainties of the evidence layers used in the model.In the case study presented,the prospectivity for remobilised nickel sulphide(NiS)in the west Kimberley,Western Australia,is assessed with two novel techniques that objectively grade interpretations and accommodate alternative mineralisation scenarios.Exploration targets are then identified and supplied with a robustness assessment that reflects the variability of prospectivity value for each location when all models are considered.The first technique grades the strength of structural interpretations on an individual line-segment basis.Gradings are obtained from an objective measure of feature evidence,which is the quantification of specific patterns in geophysical data that are considered to reveal underlying structure.Individual structures are weighted in the prospectivity model with grading values correlated to their feature evidence.This technique allows interpreted features to contribute prospectivity proportional to their strength in feature evidence and indicates the level of associated stochastic uncertainty.The second technique aims to embrace the systemic uncertainty of modelling complex mineral systems.In this approach,multiple prospectivity maps are each generated with different combinations of confidence values applied to evidence layers to represent the diversity of processes potentially leading to ore deposition.With a suite of prospectivity maps,the most robust exploration targets are the locations with the highest prospectivity values showing the smallest range amongst the model suite.This new technique offers an approach that reveals to the modeller a range of alternative mineralisation scenarios while employing a sensible mineral systems model,robust modelling of prospectivity and significantly reducing the exploration search space for Ni.     

Magnetotelluric measurements on the Methana Peninsula (Greece): modelling and interpretation

As a first deep geophysical survey, thirteen magnetotelluric and magnetovariation soundings in the period range of 0.0085–6000 s have been carried out in the Methana Peninsula and Trizina area (Greece), which form the western part of the active Hellenic Volcanic Arc. Data have been processed using robust techniques and further analysed using decomposition methods in order to find the regional azimuth. By using the smooth inverse of Smith and Booker (J. Geophys. Res. 96, 3905–3922, 1991), the 2-D modelling has resolved a low-resistivity area (<30 Ω m) at depths of 2–3 km beneath the volcanics, whereas elsewhere the resistivity is much higher (>100 Ω m). Parkinson induction arrows also at the range 0.01–0.1 s point towards the centre of the peninsula. The conductivity anomaly is interpreted as being connected with the volcanic history of Methana, as a cooler remnant of former magmatic activity. The contrast with the much higher resistivities suggested at depths >5 km, is discussed in terms of fluid mobility, limitation of the MT method and extensional processes in the southern Aegean.     

A Geoarchaeological Survey of the Marine Extension of the Roman Archaeological Site Villa del Pezzolo,Vico Equense,on the Sorrento Peninsula,Italy

The Roman Villa on the Marina di Equa (Vico Equense, Sorrento Peninsula, Italy), built in the first century A.D., is an important coastal site where the geological effects of the A.D. 79 eruption of Vesuvius are combined with archaeological remains, thus representing an interaction of both human and natural events. At this site, a patrician Roman villa, located at the outlet of a steep V‐shaped valley on the northern flank of a ridge in the Lattari Mountains, was completely destroyed by the A.D. 79 eruption and by subsequent mud/debris flows and floods. During these catastrophic events, the villa was rebuilt twice, in the second and third centuries A.D., as shown by archaeological evidence on the beach. A marine geophysical survey was conducted to study the unexplored portion of this archaeological site. A geographical information system (GIS) analysis of integrated geophysical survey data has identified and mapped (in two and three dimensions) the major underwater archaeological structures on and below the seabed in the villa harbor. A map of the ancient port of the Roman villa has been created by correlating the submerged remains with the construction phases of the villa.     

重庆市两江隧道合理覆盖层厚度研究

重庆市拟通过朝天门两江隧道等来实现渝中半岛、江北城和南岸弹子石三地之间的快捷连接。江底隧道的覆盖层厚度十分重要。如果覆盖层厚度太小,江底隧道工作面就有面临严重的失稳问题和江水涌入的危险,会使辅助工法的投入增大,另一方面覆盖层厚度太大将增加江底隧道的长度、坡度与造价。分别采用工程类比法与数值模拟法确定了重庆市朝天门两江隧道越江段钻爆法施工的合理覆盖层厚度。     

Predictive modelling of the spatial pattern of past and future forest cover changes in India

This study was carried out to simulate the forest cover changes in India using Land Change Modeler. Classified multi-temporal long-term forest cover data was used to generate the forest covers of 1880 and 2025. The spatial data were overlaid with variables such as the proximity to roads, settlements, water bodies, elevation and slope to determine the relationship between forest cover change and explanatory variables. The predicted forest cover in 1880 indicates an area of 10,42,008 km², which represents 31.7% of the geographical area of India. About 40% of the forest cover in India was lost during the time interval of 1880–2013. Ownership of majority of forest lands by non-governmental agencies and large scale shifting cultivation are responsible for higher deforestation rates in the Northeastern states. The six states of the Northeast (Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura) and one union territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) had shown an annual gross rate of deforestation of >0.3 from 2005 to 2013 and has been considered in the present study for the prediction of future forest cover in 2025. The modelling results predicted widespread deforestation in Northeast India and in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and hence is likely to affect the remaining forests significantly before 2025. The multi-layer perceptron neural network has predicted the forest cover for the period of 1880 and 2025 with a Kappa statistic of >0.70. The model predicted a further decrease of 2305 km² of forest area in the Northeast and Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 2025. The majority of the protected areas are successful in the protection of the forest cover in the Northeast due to management practices, with the exception of Manas, Sonai-Rupai, Nameri and Marat Longri. The predicted forest cover scenario for the year 2025 would provide useful inputs for effective resource management and help in biodiversity conservation and for mitigating climate change.     

Spatial correlation for transformation uncertainty and its applications

This paper shows that the transformation uncertainty varies in space and can be decomposed into (a) a slowly fluctuating component contributed by the systematic bias for a local site and (b) a rapidly fluctuating component partly contributed by the measurement error. Based on a piezocone database, the slowly fluctuating component is found to have a vertical scale of fluctuation (SOF) of 17–60 m, larger than the vertical SOFs for most soil properties and characteristic dimensions for many geotechnical structures. This paper provides an empirical basis to justify the assumption that the transformation uncertainty is fully correlated in space.     

Spatial modelling of commercial spaces in medium-sized cities

The pattern of commercial spaces in a city has never been the consequence of chance. Retailers have always searched for the ‘best location’, but the notion of what exactly constitutes the ‘best location’ has changed over the decades. It is no longer a question of being close-to-market. It depends on an amount of social, economic and even morphological aspects of urban life, not to mention intrinsic aspects of the retail sector itself, namely new types of stores, products and purchase and payment options. Consequently, the methods retailers have employed to determine ‘best location’ have also evolved, and today increasingly complex mathematical and geospatial models are in use. It should then be safe to assume that commercial geography has changed and therefore, commercial hierarchies need to be re-invented, or at least challenged. A current trend in the literature is revealing more than ever the influence of commerce in the spatial and morphological re-configuration of cities. Thus, the understanding of modern retail patterns may be a key issue in interpreting and regulating the processes of urban, social and economic development. Using as test-beds four Portuguese medium-sized cities, commercial and morphological data was collected, analysed and compared, applying spatial analysis techniques. Similar patterns were found between the four cities, which led to the proposal of two geospatial commercial distribution models, one for the city-centre and one for the suburbia. These models shed a new light on the structure of Portuguese medium-size cities, and may well be valid in other medium and small towns across Europe.     

Spatial variations in the effective elastic thickness of the lithosphere in Southeast Asia

As a proxy for long-term lithospheric strength, detailed information on lateral effective elastic thickness (T_e) variations can aid in understanding the distribution pattern of surface deformation and its response to long-term forces. Here we present high-resolution maps of spatial variations of T_e for the complex SE Asian region by analyzing the coherence of topography and Bouguer gravity anomaly data. We find that after considering the gravity deficit of less dense sediment, the recovered T_e maps are more representative of the geology, particularly in elongated rift basins. The results show that the T_e variation pattern in SE Asia, in general, agrees well with its tectonic provinces and major tectonic boundaries. The oceanic basins, the Indosinian suture zones between the Indochina and Sibumasu blocks, and the Makassar Strait are characterized by low T_e, while moderate and high T_e values are recovered in the Khorat plateau, West Burma, the Singapore Ridge, the Con Song Swell, Borneo, the northern Australian margin and the Molucca Sea. The T_e pattern in the south Indonesian margin is complicated by the approach and collision of oceanic plateaus and seamounts with the fore-arc region. The heterogeneous strength features are consistent with the complex assemblage of different tectonic units, and significant deformation during Cenozoic tectonic events. In the Indochina Peninsula, the extruded displacement during the India-Eurasia collision might have been partitioned and absorbed by the combined mechanism of the extrusion and viscous tectonic models. As a result, the offshore displacements of the major strike-slip faults in the South China Sea are much smaller than originally assumed, thus having less effect on the development of the South China Sea than other mechanisms such as the slab pull of the proto-South China Sea. Since the displacement driven by the boundary tectonic forces has been greatly absorbed and decreased by subduction and deformation in the active margins and adjacent weak regions, the motion velocity of the interior regions is greatly lower than the boundary active margins, and they are largely free of seismicity and volcanism. Our results suggest that East Borneo might share a similar crustal basement, and represent a broad tectonic zone of the destroyed Meso-Tethys Ocean extending from West-Middle Java, through East Borneo to northern Borneo of the Sarawak and Sabah. The Indosinian zones between the Indochina and Sibumasu blocks might extend further southeastward across Billiton Island to offshore of southern Borneo, and the Singapore platform and SW Borneo might belong to the same block. The results also show that the internal load fraction F is high in the coastal area of South China, the northern margin of the South China Sea, and the coastal area of Indochina, which, in general, agrees with the distribution of a high-velocity lower crustal layer and Late Cenozoic basaltic rocks.     

Neotectonics and seismic hazard assessment in Hengchun Peninsula,southern Taiwan

Neotectonic data may indicate whether stored elastic energy will be dissipated or released destructively. The Hengchun Peninsula of Taiwan is the southern extremity of the Central Range of Taiwan and thus an emergent part of the accretionary wedge resulting from subduction of Eurasia beneath the Philippine Sea plate at the Manila Trench. Radiocarbon dating of fossil shorelines on the peninsula shows that it has been uplifted at an average rate of 3.8 mm/yr during the Holocene. About $1/3$ of the uplift is due to deformation along the Hengchun reverse fault but, in contrast with the Chelungpu and other low angle reverse faults west of the Central Range, it accommodates strain principally by aseismic creep. To cite this article: C. Vita-Finzi, J.-C. Lin, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Spatial and scaling modelling for geochemical anomaly separation

A spatial and scaling approach with a user-friendly windows program is introduced which can be used to assist exploration geologists and geochemists in geochemical data analysis and anomaly separation. It can also be used for image enhancement and classification. Statistics are calculated and optimized within a variable-sized moving window centred at an arbitrary sample location. The moving window has both variable size and shape determined by three parameters: r (size), β (ratio of long and short axes), and θ (orientation). It calculates five optimal indexes for each sample location: the optimal statistic U(r₀,β₀,θ₀), optimal size r₀, shape indexes β₀ and θ₀, and scaling index α (singularity exponent). These indexes characterize the entities present in an image from different angles and, therefore, can be analyzed by means of multivariate techniques to assist in image enhancement and classification. The user-friendly program prepared can be used in conjunction with GIS (Geographic Information System) software such as ArcView to implement the spatial and scaling method. It has been applied to the stream sediment geochemical data set (923 grid samples) for gold mineral exploration in the Habahe map sheet, Altay Shan, Xinjiang, northwestern China. The spatial and scaling method provides better results than the ordinary moving average method.     

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for performance assessment modeling

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses methods for computer models are being applied in performance assessment modeling in the geologic high-level radioactive-waste repository program. The models used in performance assessment tend to be complex physical/chemical models with large numbers of input variables. There are two basic approaches to sensitivity and uncertainty analyses: deterministic and statistical. The deterministic approach to sensitivity analysis involves numerical calculation or employs the adjoint form of a partial differential equation to compute partial derivatives; the uncertainty analysis is based on Taylor series expansions of the input variables propagated through the model to compute means and variances of the output variable. The statistical approach to sensitivity analysis involves a response surface approximation to the model with the sensitivity coefficients calculated from the response surface parameters; the uncertainty analysis is based on simulation. The methods each have strengths and weaknesses.     

Developments in storm tide modelling and risk assessment in the Australian region

An overview is provided of some of the significant storm tide modelling and risk assessment studies undertaken over the past few years within Australia and the nearby oceanic regions for government and industry. Emphasis is placed on the need for integrated planning and forecasting approaches for storm tide risk assessment. The importance of the meteorological forcing and the appropriate modelling of each of the storm tide components, namely, astronomical tide, storm surge, breaking wave setup and coastal inundation is discussed. The critical role of tropical cyclone “best track” datasets for risk assessment studies and the potential impacts on design criteria and risk assessment studies is highlighted, together with the challenge of developing credible enhanced-greenhouse climate change scenarios. It is concluded that storm tide modelling needs to be undertaken in a holistic framework that considers the relative uncertainties in each of the various elements—atmospheric, hydrodynamic and data, as well as addressing operational forecasting, design and planning needs.