南海海浪业务化数值预报系统检验

为检验南海海浪业务化数值预报系统的预报效果,利用2010年和2011年3-11月的观测资料,通过计算预报值和观测值的绝对误差、相对误差等统计参数和线性回归分析对南海海浪业务化数值预报系统进行检验.统计结果显示有效波高和平均周期的预报误差24 h＜48 h＜72 h,有效波高的24 h、48 h、72 h预报平均绝对误差小于0.5 m,平均周期的24 h、48 h、72 h预报平均绝对误差小于0.8 s;预报误差有明显的季节变化,10月和11月的预报误差显著小于其它各月;回归分析结果显示预报值与观测值存在中度高度线性相关关系,随着预报时效的增长相关度逐渐递减,预报值较观测值偏大.总体来说,该系统的预报误差在可接受的范围之内,满足业务化预报的要求,但与欧洲气象中心等发达国家的预报系统比较来看,该系统还存在较大差距.     

海浪数值预报准业务运行试验

海浪是引起我国海灾海难事故的主要海洋环境过程之一。每年由海浪引起的海灾海难事故所造成的直接经济损失以亿元计。海洋环境预报中心引进第三代海浪数值模式，对中国海近海海域（１５°～４５°Ｎ，１０５°～１４１°Ｅ和１５°～４５°Ｎ，１０５”～１５５°Ｅ）进行了７２小时的海浪数值预报，从１９８９年１月起进行了试报，从１９９２年１１月起投入了准业务运行。预报结果能够为海浪业务预报提供一定的参考。本文介绍了浅水情形下的第三代海浪模式以及几年来的试运行情况。     

YW-SWP海浪数值预报模式及其应用

ＹＷ－ＳＷＰ海浪数值预报模式考虑了地形引起的折射效应和波波间非线性能量转移，采用了新的风输入源函数和文氏理论风浪谱，使模式不仅适合深浅水，且有更适合我国海区的特色；另外，计算中对风场采取了一种加权平均的处理技术。应用于渤海个例检验及对温索子站的后报结果表明，本模式有相当好的可靠和准确性，折射效应在２０ｍ以上水深影响不明显，但在大约１０ｍ水深的浅水区影响达３０ｃｍ。     

全球海浪数值预报业务化试验

本文应用WAVEWATCHⅢ海浪模式,进行全球海浪数值预报试验,通过同期TOPEX/Poseidon卫星观测有效波高的检验,获得令人满意的结果。在模式移植时采用多种优化处理,有效地节约了机时,为我国的全球海浪数值预报业务化打下基础。     

中国海高分辨率业务化风暴潮模式的业务化预报检验

国家海洋环境预报中心建立了中国海高分辨率风暴潮数值预报模式,模式在水平分辨率和网格的嵌套方面都较以往的业务化模式有改进和提高.自2003年起将模式投入业务化运行以来,连续三年共对11个台风风暴潮过程进行了跟踪预报,并将数值预报结果与实测资料相对比.本文将对预报模式三年来的预报结果进行检验.     

日本沿岸区域海浪业务预报模式的进展

一、前 言 日本气象厅沿岸海浪模式由大网格套小网格的三个梯级组成:第一梯级采用粗网格（间距381公里）,第二梯级采用细网格（间距127公里）,最后采取加细网格（间距10公里）。本文简单地介绍大洋海浪模式、沿岸海浪模式、模式的运算流程以及应用实测资料对计算结果的验证情况。     

海浪研究与预报工作的新进展

现代海科学及其相关科学和技术的发展，已使人们在海浪研究和海浪预报方面有了较大的进展，尤其在海浪预报方面已经获得了一较成熟的理论和方法，本文着重分析了发展完善海浪数值诊断和数值预报模式，实现海浪预报方法客观化，预报手段自动化和系统化方面的进展     

海浪预报现状与未来

值此国家海洋环境预报中心成立40周年之际,回顾40年来我国海浪研究和海浪预报历程,我国已经在海浪研究和海浪预报方面有了较大进展,尤其在海浪预报方面已经获得了一些较成熟的理论和方法.本文简要介绍在发展和完善海浪数值诊断模式与海浪数值预报模式,实现海浪预报方法客观化,预报手段自动化和系统化方面的现状和未来.     

Verification of A Numerical Harbour Wave Model

A numerical model for wave propagation in a harbour is verified by use of physical models.The extended time-dependent mild slope equation is employed as the governing equation,and the model is solved by use of ADI method containing the relaxation factor.Firstly,the reflection coefficient of waves in front of rubble-mound breakwaters under oblique incident waves is determined through physical model tests,and it is regarded as the basis for simulating partial reflection boundaries of the numerical model.Then model tests on refraction,diffraction and reflection of waves in a harbour are performed to measure wave height distribution.Comparative results between physical and numerical model tests show that the present numerical model can satisfactorily simulate the propagation of regular and irregular waves in a harbour with complex topography and boundary conditions.     

海洋环境数值预报检验方法的探讨与测试

对获得的海浪有效波高、海表温度、剖面温度和水位等要素的实测数据以及历史CTD资料,通过对这些数据进行分析和处理,检验WW3海浪、三维温盐流以及MODAS(模块化数据同化系统)等模式的数值预报产品,并设计相应的软件进行各时次的实时比对和旬月统计,自动生成客观的旬月检验报告.为改进预报模式、提高数值预报的准确性和预报产品的使用率提供可靠的依据.     

复杂地形下海浪数值模式的特征线计算格式

LAGFD-WAM海浪数值模式是一种第三代海浪数值模式，通过求解波数谱平衡方程，并考虑风输入、波浪破碎耗散、底摩擦耗散、波波非线性相互作用和波流相互作用等源函数，模拟波数空间下的海浪方向谱，并依此获得海浪的波高、周期和平均波向。该模式的一个显著特点是采用特征线嵌入格式求解海浪的传播。在进行浅水区域的海浪模拟时，特征线嵌入格式的数值计算方案是否合理对海浪数值模拟结果产生直接的影响。为此LAGFD-WAM海浪数值模式提出了一种新的特征线混合数值计算格式，并应用于浅水海浪数值模拟。结果表明，采用该计算方法，能够使数值模拟结果与实测结果很好符合。     

Wave Numerical Model for Shallow Water

The history of forecasting wind waves by wave energy conservation equation is briefly des-cribed.Several currently used wave numerical models for shallow water based on different wave theoriesare discussed.Wave energy conservation models for the simulation of shallow water waves are introduced,with emphasis placed on the SWAN model,which takes use of the most advanced wave research achieve-ments and has been applied to several theoretical and field conditions.The characteristics and applicabilityof the model,the finite difference numerical scheme of the action balance equation and its source termscomputing methods are described in detail.The model has been verified with the propagation refractionnumerical experiments for waves propagating in following and opposing currents;finally.the model is ap-plied to the Haian Gulf area to simulate the wave height and wave period field there,and the results arecompared with observed data.     

基于SWAN模式的南海台风浪推算的影响因素分析

基于南海实际地形和真实的台风过程,对影响SWAN模式在南海台风浪推算中的准确性的因素进行了较系统的研究。首先对不同的模型风场进行了对比分析,结果表明一个准确的风场是正确推算台风浪的关键。同时对SWAN模式中的白冠耗散作用、风能输入与白冠耗散不同的组合方式和折射项作用等因素对台风浪推算的影响进行分析,并对模式中的各影响因素给出了合理建议。使得SWAN模式在南海台风浪推算中具有更好的适用性。     

Numerical Model of Cnoidal Wave Flume

The volume of fluid(VOF)method is used to set up a wave flume with an absorbing wavemaker of cnoidal waves.Based on the transfer function between wave surface and paddle velocity obtained bythe shallow water wave theory,the velocity boundary condition of an absorbing wave maker is introduced toabsorb reflected waves that reach the numerical wave maker.For H/d ranging from 0.1 to 0.59 and T(g/d)~(1/2)from 7.9 to 18.3,the parametric studies have been carried out and compared with experiments.     

A Numerical Model of Nonlinear Wave Propagation in Curvilinear Coordinates

For the simulation of the nonlinear wave propagation in coastal areas with complex boundaries,a numerical model is developed in curvilinear coordinates. In the model,the Boussinesq-type equations including the dissipation terms are employed as the governing equations. In the present model,the dependent variables of the transformed equations are the free surface elevation and the utility velocity variables,instead of the usual primitive velocity variables. The introduction of utility velocity variables which...     

Applications of A Numerical Model to Wave Propagation on Mild Slopes

Based on the mild slope equation that has heen deeomposed inlo three equations related to wave phase function, wave amplitude and wave approach angle, a refraction-diffraction model is developed. The finite difference method has been selected as the solution method. The model results are compared with experimental results and the model is applied to coastal waters of the Fethiye Bay, whieh is located at the Mediterranean Sea of Turkey.     

A Numerical Model for Nonlinear Wave Propagation on Non-uniform Current

On the basis of the new type Boussinesq equations (Madsen et al.,2002),a set of equations explicitly including the effects of currents on waves are derived.A numerical implementation of the present equations in one dimension is described.The numerical model is tested for wave propagation in a wave flume of uniform depth with current present.The present numerical results are compared with those of other researchers.It is validated that the present numerical model can reasonably reflect the nonlinear influences of currents on waves.Moreover,the effects of inputting different incident boundary conditions on the calculated results are studied.     

基于MASNUM海浪预报系统的北印度洋波浪特征模拟与预报分析

基于MASNUM海浪数值预报系统的全球10 a后报数据库资料,分析了北印度洋区域波浪分布特征.由于该地区受季风控制显著,夏季波浪大于冬季;在空间分布上,西部比东部风大、浪大,在亚丁湾、索马里外海波浪最大.基于Janson-1卫星高度计有效波高观测资料,对MASNUM海浪预报系统的预报性能进行了检验,检验结果表明,预报波高均方根误差在0.5 m左右,短期的24 h预报效果好于48 h和72 h,冬季好于夏季.另外,对预报误差进行了相应的概率分布分析.