基于方志资料重建1644-1949年长江三角洲地区台风频次序列(英文)

The proxy records on typhoons in the Yangtze River Delta from 1644 to 1949AD were extracted from historical chorographies in the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China Period.In reference to the basic principles for identifying historical typhoons,time series on the Yangtze River Delta over a period of 306 years were developed.The conclusions are as follows.(1) There were a total of 241 typhoons from 1644 to 1949AD.Using the historical chorographies from 1884 to 1949AD,the number of typhoons was 65,equal to 87.8% recorded by meteorological observation.The number of years with differences in typhoon activities reconstructed using two ways no more than once is 55,reaching 83.3% in the period from 1884 to 1949AD.This result means the series of historical typhoons reconstructed using historical chorographies can represent the change of typhoon activities over years.(2) The average number of typhoon activities is 0.79 times per year from 1644 to 1949AD,and they show an increasing trend.These 306 years can be divided into three periods by the average number of typhoon activities:it is low from 1644 to 1784AD,and more typhoon activities are found from 1785 to 1904AD.It is worth noting that the number of typhoon activities reaches the summit in the last period,which is 1.2 times per year from 1905 to 1949AD.(3) Before the 20th century,the number of typhoon activities in warm periods is less than the number of cold periods.However,the number of typhoon activities increased dramatically in the early 20th century.Comparing the typhoon activities with El Ni o events,the data show that the number of typhoon activities did not increase when El Ni o occurred.     

1711-1982年云南雨季早晚序列的重建与夏季风变迁

According to the textual research into the historical documents dominated by archives yearly, as well as the verification with several other kinds of data, the later or earlier starting time of the rainy seasons in Yunnan during 1711-1982 has been reconstructed. The analysis indicates that there are obvious fluctuations in the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan in a year or years, and long fluctuation on the decadal scale. The rainy season comes earlier in the early 18th century, later in the 19th century and earlier again in the 20th century. This reflects to a certain degree the gradual change of the summer monsoon in Yunnan. There exists an obvious quasi-3 years cycle, which is related to EI-Nino＇s quasi-3 years cycle, and a 11.3-year cycle which is notably related to the 11-year cycle of the solar activity of starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. Meanwhile, the dissertation finds that the EI-Nino is very important to the starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan. The starting date of the rainy seasons in Yunnan often comes later or normally in the year of EI-Nino. However, there is an obvious imperfect period in such influence, which in turn may mean that there is a certain fluctuation in the effect of ENSO on Asian summer monsoon.     

城市群地区创业风险投资的时空分异规律及影响因素分析（英文）

Under China's innovation-driven development strategy, venture capital has become an important driving force in urban agglomeration integration and collaborative innovation. This paper uses social network analysis to analyze spatiotemporal differences of venture capital in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration for the period 2005–2015. A gravity model and panel data regression model are used to reveal the influencing factors on spatiotemporal differences in venture capital in the region. This study finds that there is a certain cyclical fluctuation and uneven differentiation in the venture capital network in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in terms of total investment, and that the three centers of venture capital(Beijing, Shijiazhuang and Tangshan) have a stimulatory effect on surrounding cities; flows of venture capital between cities display certain networking rules, but they are slow to develop and strongly centripetal; there is a strong positive correlation between levels of information infrastructure development and economic development and venture capital investment; and places with relatively underdeveloped financial environments and service industries are less able to apply the fruits of innovation and entrepreneurship and to attract funds. This study can act as a reference for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration in building a world-class super urban agglomeration with the best innovation capabilities in China.     

河南省种子植物区系地域分异研究

Flora refers to the sum total of all plants species found in a certain region during a certain period of time (Good, 1974; Wu et al., 1983). It is the result of florogenesis, plant evolution and historical geographical change (Tivy, 1982; Wang, 1992; Chap…     

中国耕地和农村宅基地利用转型耦合特征与机制(英文)

Land use transition refers to the changes in land use morphology (both dominant morphology and recessive morphology) of a certain region over a certain period of time driven by socio-economic change and innovation, and it usually corresponds to the transition of socio-economic development phase. In China, farmland and rural housing land are the two major sources of land use transition. This paper analyzes the spatio-temporal coupling characteristics of farmland and rural housing land transition in China, using high-resolution Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper) data in 2000 and 2008, and the data from the Ministry of Land and Resources of China. The outcomes indicated that: (1) during 2000-2008, the cor-relation coefficient of farmland vs. rural housing land change is -0.921, and it shows that the change pattern of farmland and rural housing land is uncoordinated; (2) the result of Spear-man rank correlation analysis shows that rural housing land change has played a major role in the mutual transformation of farmland and rural housing land; and (3) it shows a high-degree spatial coupling between farmland and rural housing land change in southeast China during 2000-2008. In general, farmland and rural housing land transition in China is driven by socio-economic, bio-physical and managerial three-dimensional driving factors through the interactions among rural population, farmland and rural housing land. However, the spatio-temporal coupling phenomenon and mechanism of farmland and rural housing land transition in China are largely due to the "dual-track" structure of rural-urban develop-ment.     

黑河流域气温的稳定性与长程相关性（英文）

Air temperature(AT) is a subsystem of a complex climate.Long-range correlation(LRC) is an important feature of complexity.Our research attempt to evaluate AT’s complexity differences in different land-use types in the Heihe River Basin(HRB) based on the stability and LRC.The results show the following:(1) AT’s stability presents differences in different land-use types.In agricultural land,there is no obvious variation in the trend throughout the year.Whereas in a desert,the variation in the trend is obvious: the AT is more stable in summer than it is in winter,with Ta ranges of [8,20]°C and SD of the AT residual ranges of [0.2,0.7],respectively.Additionally,in mountainous areas,when the altitude is beyond a certain value,AT’s stability changes.(2) AT’s LRC presents differences in different land-use types.In agricultural land,the long-range correlation of AT is the most persistent throughout the year,showing the smallest difference between summer and winter,with the Hs range of [0.8,1].Vegetation could be an important factor.In a desert,the long-range correlation of AT is less persistent,showing the greatest difference between summer and winter,with the Hs range of [0.54,0.96].Solar insolation could be a dominant factor.In an alpine meadow,the long-range correlation of AT is the least persistent throughout the year,presenting a smaller difference between summer and winter,with the Hs range of [0.6,0.85].Altitude could be an important factor.(3) Usually,LRC is a combination of the Ta and SD of the AT residuals.A larger Ta and smaller SD of the AT residual would be conducive to a more persistent LRC,whereas a smaller Ta and larger SD of the AT residual would limit the persistence of LRC.A larger Ta and SD of the AT residual would create persistence to a degree between those of the first two cases,as would a smaller Ta and SD of the AT residual.In addition,the last two cases might show the same LRC.     

基于耦合模型的中国能源生产与消费预测及其环境响应(英文)

The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production, consumption and total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1) model and gravity center model, based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy production, consumption and environmental quality and their relationship. The results are shown as follows. 1) The gravity center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approxi-mates to linear variation, indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west, south and north is narrowing to a certain extent, with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north. 2) The gravity center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation, of which the gravity center position from 2000 to 2005 was relatively stable, with slight annual position variation, indicating that the growth rates of all provinces and autonomous regions are basically the same. 3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree. But, it shows a southwestward trend on the whole. 4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production & consumption of China, and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and consumption (especially the energy consumption), indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China.     

双核结构模式形成的自然基础

The dual-nuclei spatial structurs is composed of a regional central city,a port city and their spatial relations in certain regions.In general,this spatial structure could be found in most of the coastal regions or regions along big rivers.In terms of the mechanism,the dual-nuclei structure is the result of the spatial interaction and the complementary characteristics of the center city and the port city.The “marginal function” of the port city and its relationship with the central city has long been discussed in the literature.On the one hand,drainage area is the main natural grographical background of the formation of the dual-nuclei spatial structure;therefore,we can build a theoretical geographic structure that is based on the drainage area.On the other hand,vicissitude of the coastline also has important influence on the formation of the dual-nuclei spatial structure.It is especially meaningful if we can notice this when we examine deeply the research on the spatial structure of delta.     

ECOLOGICALLY STRATEGIC POINTS IN LANDSCAPE AND SURFACE MODEL

Various processes occur across a landscape, including ecological processes such as the movement of species, the flow of nutrients, the spread of fire and other disturbances, and the diffusion of pollutants, economic processes such as land conversion for agricultural production, marketing of new product, transportation and immigration; political and diplomatic processes such as the construction of political influence sphere at local, national and global scale. At the fact of limited space and resources on the surface of the earth, a generic issue regarding these processes across the landscapes is: how to control (promote or retard) the processes efficiently, namely using less energy and space for a bigger influence sphere. The overall assumption for this issue is that, there are some positions and portion in a landscape that may have critical influence on a certain process across the landscape. These critical positions in a landscape are called strategic points. Occupancy of these strategic points may give a process the momentum of controlling and covering the landscape more effectively, due to their quality of; Initiative, occupancy of these points may give the process the advantage of leading the game; Co-ordlnation, occupancy of these points may give the process the advantage of forming an overall influence sphere; Efficiency, occupancy of these points may give the process the advantage of having a bigger coverage of the landscape while costing less energy. By identifying and using these critical positions and portions in the landscape, therefore, may unproportionately increase the efficiency of controlling this process. It is further assumed that, in order to take control of the landscape, the process has to overcome a certain resistance. A resistance surface can therefore visualize the dynamics of the process itself. The resistance surface resembles a topographic surface, indicating where the process (flow) diverges or converges. It is, therefore, possible to identify strategically important positions or portions in a landscape that may have important influence on the dynamics of the process. Assuming species movement across a landscape is a competitive gaming process of control and coverage against some resistance, this paper discusses a methodology of identifying strategic points according to the properties of resistance surfaces which resembles a gaming board as well as a topographic surface. Three types of resistance surfaces are discussed: The archipelago type: where lower resistance islands are surrounded by higher resistance matrix, representing such landscapes as agricultural fields dotted with native forest patches. The network type: where the lower resistance portions form a linear network surrounded by higher resistance matrix. The plateau type: where, areas with higher resistance are surrounded by lower resistance matrix. Accordingly, five types of strategic points are identified in terms of their locations. They are strategic points at saddle points , at intersections, at the center, at an edge and at a corner. Strategic points for biodivershy conservation are minimax points in a given resistance surface associated with the dispersibility of a certain species. A case study is used to illustrate the methodology. The rules leading to the strategic points are largely hypothetical, though supported by a limited number of observations. This approach may provide a framework and a new model of thinking for field observations of landscape ecology as well as landscape change.     

苏北废黄河三角洲近岸沉积物分异特征及输运趋势(英文)

The delta evolution and erosion process of the abandoned Yellow River Delta(AYRD) have been extensively studied. However, the variation of sediment at a large littoral scale along the north coast of Jiangsu is less understood. In this study, the data of surface sediment samples obtained in the littoral area of the Yellow River Delta in 2006 and 2012 is used to study the sediment variability and sediment transport trends by using the geostatistics analysis tool and the grain size trend analysis model. In order to ensure the applicability of the model, the geostatistics method is used to determine the characteristic distance(Dc) with the average range value(Ao) of grain size parameter. Filtering method(removing data that not at a sampling station) is used to improve accuracy of data selection. The results show that sedimentary spatial correlation in Lianyun Port area and southern part of the abandoned Yellow River Delta(AS) is better than that in the northern part of the abandoned Yellow River Delta(AN). Sediment in the area is found to be anisotropy at the northeast–southeast direction. The grain size trend analysis reveals that the sediment trend is towards bayhead and southerly in the Haizhou Bay, southeasterly along the shoreline in the south Lianyun Port, northwesterly in AN and easterly–southeasterly in AS respectively. The investigation of possible relationships between Dc, Ao, sediment transport and delta evolution shows a close link between Dc and Ao of one sediment combination. It is also found that sediment transport trends could reasonably represent the delta evolution to a certain degree.     

Statistic forecast of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002, a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.     

清代长江三角洲地区重大台风的对比分析

文章从清代的地方志、档案等文献史料中提取台风灾害信息并整理分类,根据台风及其次数的判断依据识别出清前期长江三角洲地区存在7次重大台风灾害,对这7次台风事件从台风过程、灾害分布与路径等方面进行了重建和对比分析。研究结果表明：清前期长三角地区的7次重大台风都发生于农历的六月、七月和八月,正值潮汛期,危害极大;台风过程持续时间短,一般在2~3 d左右。7次重大台风集中分布在浙江的杭州湾附近和长江下游流域两岸,主要在上海市的崇明、奉贤,浙江的余姚、嘉善等沿海地区登陆,然后沿岸向西北方向路径移动,与现代台风路径相比,接近于西北路径型或向北路径。在不同时空背景下台风对区域社会影响存在一定的差异性。     

京津冀地区台风危险性评估——基于Gumbel分布的分析

台风引发的连续暴雨是京津冀地区主要的气象灾害之一,开展台风危险性评估,旨在识别台风灾害高危险区,为京津冀地区台风灾害防灾减灾能力提升和风险管理提供参考。根据1974-2015年间影响京津冀地区的台风资料,选取该地区148个国家气象站点的气象数据,包括最大日降水量、累积降水量及最大风速3个指标。借助Gumbel分布,求出各气象站点5 a、10 a、30 a及50 a一遇水平下的气象指标数值,利用ArcGIS空间插值表征其空间分布,据此评估京津冀地区台风危险性。结果表明,50 a一遇下台风灾害最大日降水最大值为190.62 mm,累积降水量最大值为253.04 mm,最大风速最大值为16.81 m/s。其中北京东南部、天津北部、河北省东南沿海地区和太行山一带的石家庄、邢台、邯郸等地区为高危险区。     

广东省台风灾害经济损失风险评估

广东省是我国的经济大省,频繁遭受台风侵袭,造成巨大的经济损失,进行区域台风灾害经济损失风险的定量评估在制定防灾减灾措施方面具有重要的理论意义.本文通过1954-2008年间全国台风灾情数据与台风强度等级构建直接经济损失率曲线,采用GIS空间分析方法,计算广东全省98个县域单元不同强度等级台风经济脆弱性,在计算不同强度等级台风登陆广东的频次基础上,确定不同强度等级台风发生可能性,最终采用风险评估模型,对不同强度等级台风造成的广东省经济损失风险进行定量评估.评估结果表明:广东台风灾害造成的经济损失风险在百亿元以上,微度、轻度、中度和重度分别达到104.67、144.29、77.53和135.91亿元.空间上表现为珠三角地区的广州市、东莞市、深圳市、中山市、珠海市风险最高,从珠江入海口地区向内地呈辐射状减弱,内陆远离海岸线的县市风险值最低,不足0.50亿元,随着台风强度由微度到中度增强,粤西风险高于粤东,当达到重度时,表现为粤东沿海高于粤西沿海的格局.     

基于主成分神经网络的台风灾害经济损失评估

本研究建立了浙江省台风灾害直接经济损失评估模型。把浙江省台风灾害直接经济损失资料换算成直接经济损失指数,运用主成分分析法对表示致灾因子、孕灾环境与承灾体的评估因子进行数据处理,提取主成分作为BP神经网络模型的输入,从而建立评估模型。模型历史拟合结果和实际一致。在2007年和2008年影响浙江省的5个台风的实际评估中,强台风"Vipa"灾后评估值比实际值偏大2.16,其余4个台风灾后评估值比实况偏大0.2~0.7,反映了人们对影响大的台风防灾减灾工作的重视和防灾减灾效果。根据台风开始影响时过程风雨预报值进行预评估,过程风雨预报值较准确的台风,预评估结果和灾后评估值一致;过程风雨预报值误差较大的台风,预评估效果较差。因此,该模型可用于实际台风灾害直接经济损失评估,提高台风影响前风雨预报准确率是提高预评估准确率的关键。     

海岸沙席对台风的形态响应特征

采用RTK GPS测量技术与方法,在2014—2017年对福建平潭岛典型海岸沙席进行了连续16次形态高精度测量,分析了海岸沙席在台风作用下的形态变化及台风季后的形态恢复变化特征。结果表明：1）海岸沙席对台风的形态响应特征明显,基本表现为海滩及沙席前缘高度降低（最大侵蚀深度为0.92 m）,沙席中部高度变化相对较小（≤0.15 m）,沙席后缘高度稍有升高（最大堆积厚度为0.75 m）。2）在台风季后,海岸沙席形态恢复变化也较为一致,主要表现为体积减少,海滩及沙席前缘高度稍有升高（最大堆积厚度为0.78 m）,沙席中部高度降低幅度极小（≤0.10 m）,沙席后缘高度略有降低（最大侵蚀深度为0.47 m）。3）海岸线走向是影响区域海岸沙丘对台风响应的重要因素,对于沙源不足、以离岸风为主的山岐宫海岸沙席,台风在其海岸沙席形态演变中的塑造作用突出。     

不同登陆地点影响福建的台风灾害时空特征分析

根据福建省灾害性气象年鉴和福建省气候影响评价资料,建立以县域为单元的福建省台风灾害数据库(按登陆地点建立分库),运用Excel软件和Mapinfo技术,重建了1980~2005年不同登陆地点影响福建省的台风灾害时空格局。研究表明:不同登陆地点影响福建省的台风灾害年际变化总体都呈波动上升趋势,年内明显集中在7~9月份、群发性强;空间上分布差异较大,登陆福建沿海的台风灾害Tzc高值中心集中分布在闽中北沿海,登陆广东影响福建的台风灾害Tzc高值中心集中分布在闽南沿海和闽西的龙岩、漳平和永定,登陆台湾影响福建的台风灾害Tzc高值中心主要分布在厦门市和闽中北沿海地区,登陆浙江影响福建的台风灾害Tzc高值中心主要分布在闽东北沿海和闽西北局部。     

基于历史文献资料的17世纪以来东北亚台风信息挖掘

西北太平洋地区,尤其是东北亚地区,台风灾害多发,这些地区的台风的运动轨迹变化会对社会经济发展带来深刻的影响。台风活动跨海而行,因此将东北亚几个国家的历史台风信息结合起来,才能看出其全貌。中日两国,最早通过仪器观测描述的台风路径分别为1879年和1878年,历史时期的东北亚地区台风事件只能靠历史文献来推测。以在台风路径的推测上具有问题（台风影响范围评估、详细记录时间的利用、2次相近台风的辨别等）的4次台风事件为例,讨论17世纪以来东北亚台风路径的推测方法。通过对台风个案的讨论,指出将致灾记录和感应记录相结合的可行性;利用仪器观测时期台风记录验证历史文献记载的有效性。相当一部分日记资料在古风暴研究中仍处于未被发掘状态。历史上流传至今的公用日记和各名家的家记,拥有较长的写作时间和较为均质的写作内容,可提高跨国界古风暴研究的时空分辨率。     

Climatic fluctuation and disasters during recent 100 years in China’s tropics

The temperature appeared rising trend during the 20th century in China’s tropics. Two cooling stages and two warming stages in the process of climatic fluctuation can be recognized. After the 1980s the climate is the warmest which corresponds to the global change, but the warmest period is the 1940s in Kunming. The climate pattern mostly appears contemporaneity of warming and humidity, which is different from the situation of whole China. The natural disasters tend to be aggravated. The number of typhoons increased. Flood damages occurred frequently in the years of more typhoons. The number of droughts and cold damages increased. It was snowed in Guangzhou. There was frost in Haikou and Yaxian. Four years of heavy snow have been recorded in Kunming.