Geochemical evidence from corals for changes in the amplitude and spatial pattern of South Pacific interdecadal climate variability over the last 300 years

In the Pacific Ocean, the coherent pattern of interdecadal variations in sea surface temperature (SST) over the last 100 years has been termed the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). To examine past variations in the IPO we have generated time series of Sr/Ca and oxygen isotopes (¹⁸O) from South Pacific Porites coral colonies growing at Rarotonga (1997 to 1726) and Fiji (1997 to 1780). At both sites skeletal Sr/Ca is highly correlated with instrumental SST at least back to 1970 and ¹⁸O appears to reflect both SST and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) effects on seawater ¹⁸O. Comparison of our results to a New Caledonia coral ¹⁸O record and to indices of interdecadal Pacific climate variability demonstrates that these South Pacific corals have accurately recorded twentieth century variations in the IPO and SPCZ. The coral records also indicate that higher amplitude and more spatially coherent IPO-related variability existed from 1880 to 1950 with notably poor between-site correlations in the mid-1800s. These observations suggest that the spatial IPO pattern in South Pacific SST was significantly more complex and/or poorly defined in the mid-1800s compared to that observed in the twentieth century. Comparison with North Pacific IPO indices also indicates that the degree of cross-hemispheric symmetry of interdecadal oceanographic variability has changed over time with a lower correlation between the North and South Pacific in the mid-1800s. This evidence suggests that the spatial pattern of the IPO at least in the South Pacific has varied over the last 300 years, with a major reorganization occurring after 1880 A.D.     

Atlantic multidecadal oceanic variability and its influence on the atmosphere in a climate model

The mechanisms controlling the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and its influence on the atmosphere are investigated using a control simulation with the IPSL-CM4 climate model. The multidecadal fluctuations of the MOC are mostly driven by deep convection in the subpolar gyre, which occurs south of Iceland in the model. The latter is primarily influenced by the anomalous advection of salinity due to changes in the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), which is the second mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode, but it plays a secondary role in the MOC fluctuations. During summer, the MOC variability is shown to have a significant impact on the atmosphere in the North Atlantic–European sector. The MOC influence is due to an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with opposite signs in the two hemispheres but largest amplitude in the northern one. The SST pattern driven by the MOC mostly resembles the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and bears some similarity with the observed one. It is shown that the AMO reflects both the MOC influence and the local atmospheric forcing. Hence, the MOC influence on climate is best detected using lagged relations between climatic fields. The atmospheric response resembles the EAP, in a phase that might induce a weak positive feedback on the MOC.     

Role of the Atlantic multidecadal variability in modulating East Asian climate

We assess the effects of the North Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature (NASST) on North East Asian (NEA) surface temperature. We use a set of sensitivity experiments, performed with MetUM-GOML2, an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a multi-level ocean mixed layer model, to mimic warming and cooling over the North Atlantic Ocean. Results show that a warming of the NASST is associated with a significant warming over NEA. Two mechanisms are pointed out to explain the NASST—North East Asia surface temperature relationship. First, the warming of the NASST is associated with a modulation of the northern hemisphere circulation, due to the propagation of a Rossby wave (i.e. the circumglobal teleconnection). The change in the atmosphere circulation is associated with advections of heat from the Pacific Ocean to NEA and with an increase in net surface shortwave radiation over NEA, both acting to increase NEA surface temperature. Second, the warming of the NASST is associated with a cooling (warming) over the eastern (western) Pacific Ocean, which modulates the circulation over the western Pacific Ocean and NEA. Additional simulations, in which Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are kept constant, show that the modulation of the circumglobal teleconnection is key to explaining impacts of the NASST on NEA surface temperature.

     

Spatiotemporal drought variability in northwestern Africa over the last nine centuries

Changes in precipitation patterns and the frequency and duration of drought are likely to be the feature of anthropogenic climate change that will have the most direct and most immediate consequences for human populations. The latest generation of state-of-the-art climate models project future widespread drying in the subtropics. Here, we reconstruct spatially-complete gridded Palmer drought severity index values back to A.D. 1179 over Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. The reconstructions provide long-term context for northwest African hydroclimatology, revealing large-scale regional droughts prior to the sixteenth century, as well as more heterogeneous patterns in sixteenth, eighteenth, and twentieth century. Over the most recent decades a shift toward dry conditions over the region is observed, which is consistent with general circulation model projections of greenhouse gas forced enhanced regional subtropical drought.     

Daily modes of South Asian summer monsoon variability in the NCEP climate forecast system

The leading modes of daily variability of the Indian summer monsoon in the climate forecast system (CFS), a coupled general circulation model, of the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) are examined. The space?Ctime structures of the daily modes are obtained by applying multi-channel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on the daily anomalies of rainfall. Relations of the daily modes to intraseasonal and interannual variability of the monsoon are investigated. The CFS has three intraseasonal oscillations with periods around 106, 57 and 30?days with a combined variance of 7%. The 106-day mode has spatial structure and propagation features similar to the northeastward propagating 45-day mode in the observations except for its longer period. The 57-day mode, despite being in the same time scale as of the observations has poor eastward propagation. The 30-day mode is northwestward propagating and is similar to its observational counterpart. The 106-day mode is specific to the model and should not be mistaken for a new scale of variability in observations. The dominant interannual signal is related to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and, unlike in the observations, has maximum variance in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Although the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode was not obtained as a separate mode in the rainfall, the ENSO signal has good correlations with the dipole variability, which, therefore, indicates the dominance of ENSO in the model. The interannual variability is largely determined by the ENSO signal over the regions where it has maximum variance. The interannual variability of the intraseasonal oscillations is smaller in comparison.     

Impact of the Atlantic multidecadal variability on East Asian summer climate in idealized simulations

本文利用基于地球系统模式CESM1开展的北大西洋多年代际振荡理想化数值试验,研究了北大西洋多年代际振荡对东亚夏季气候的影响.结果显示,北大西洋多年代际振荡可以通过中纬度罗斯贝波以及热带开尔文波的传播两种途■影响东亚夏季气候.当北大西洋多年代际振荡处于正位相时,一方面,偏暖的北大西洋通过激发一条从北大西洋向下游传播的中纬度大气罗斯贝波列导致东亚陆地气压降低而西北太平洋气压升高,使得东亚-西北太平洋之间的海陆气压差增强;另一方面,偏暖的北大西洋激发赤道开尔文波东传,激发西北太平洋对流层低层出现反气旋式环流异常.通过以上两种途■,正位相的北大西洋多年代际振荡最终导致东亚夏季风增强,东亚地区夏季出现北湿南干和偏暖的气候.     

Mid latitude winter climate variability in the South Indian and southwest Pacific regions since 1300 AD

Mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability in the South Indian Ocean and southwest Pacific Ocean regions of the circum-Antarctic are reconstructed using sea-salt aerosol concentrations measured in the high resolution Law Dome (DSS) ice core from East Antarctica. The sea-salt aerosol concentration data, as sodium (Na), were measured at approximately monthly resolution spanning the past 700 years. Analyses of covariations between Na concentrations in Law Dome ice, and mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) and wind field data were conducted to define the mid-latitude and sub-Antarctic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with variations in Na delivery. High Na concentrations in Law Dome snow are associated with increased meridional aerosol transport from mid-latitude sources. The seasonal average Na concentration for early winter (May, June, July (MJJ)) is strongly correlated to the mid-latitude MSLP field in the South Indian and southwest Pacific Oceans, and southern Australian regions. In addition, the average MJJ Na concentrations display a strong association with the stationary Rossby wave number 3 circulation, and are anti-correlated to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index of climate variability: high (low) Na concentrations occurring during negative (positive) SAM phases. This observed relationship is used to derive a proxy record for early-winter MSLP anomalies and the SAM in the South Indian and southwest Pacific Ocean regions over the period 1300–1995 AD. The proxy SAM index from 1300 to 1995 AD shows pronounced decadal-scale variability throughout. The period after 1500 AD is marked by a tendency toward slower variations and a weakly-positive mean SAM (enhanced westerlies in the 50° to 65°S zone) compared to the early part of the record.     

Interdecadal variability over the North Pacific in a multi-century climate simulation

Interdecadal variability in the North Pacific region is investigated in a 500-y control integration of the Hamburg ECHAM+LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The spectrum is predominantly red, but a significant peak with a period of about 18 y is detected in the spectrum of sea surface temperature (SST). This peak is shown to be associated with an irregular oscillation that involves both the model ocean and atmosphere. The SST, sea-level pressure, and geopotential height at 500 hPa all undergo a primarily standing oscillation with an extensive monopole structure centered near the date line. The surface anticyclone is situated to the northeast of the warm SST anomaly, and there is a small westward tilt with height; temporal changes are approximately in phase. The anomalous surface heat flux accompanying the warm phase of SST is primarily out of the ocean, but is compensated by anomalous warm advection by surface currents, allowing the SST anomaly to persist. Oceanic thermocline anomalies propagate northward in the western Pacific, and lag the atmosphere indicating a disequilibrium with the atmosphere; sub-surface thermal advection appears to play an important role. A comparison is made between the model's 18-y oscillation and oscillatory components identified in an analysis of the GISST observational SST dataset, which have periods of approximately 6 and roughly 30 y.     

Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere

 Analyses of proxy based reconstructions of surface temperatures during the past 330 years show the existence of a distinct oscillatory mode of variability with an approximate time scale of 70 years. This variability is also seen in instrumental records, although the oscillatory nature of the variability is difficult to assess due to the short length of the instrumental record. The spatial pattern of this variability is hemispheric or perhaps even global in scale, but with particular emphasis on the Atlantic region. Independent analyses of multicentury integrations of two versions of the GFDL coupled atmosphere-ocean model also show the existence of distinct multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic region which resembles the observed pattern. The model variability involves fluctuations in the intensity of the thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. It is our intent here to provide a direct comparison of the observed variability to that simulated in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, making use of both existing instrumental analyses and newly available proxy based multi-century surface temperature estimates. The analyses demonstrate a substantial agreement between the simulated and observed patterns of multidecadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic. There is much less agreement between the model and observations for sea level pressure. Seasonal analyses of the variability demonstrate that for both the model and observations SST appears to be the primary carrier of the multidecadal signal. Received: 8 June 1999 / Accepted: 11 February 2000     

Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a model study

Observations show a multidecadal signal in the North Atlantic ocean, but the underlying mechanism and cause of its timescale remain unknown. Previous studies have suggested that it may be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is the dominant pattern of winter atmospheric variability. To further address this issue, the global ocean general circulation model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO), is driven using a 2,000 years long white noise forcing associated with the NAO. Focusing on key ocean circulation patterns, we show that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Sub-polar gyre (SPG) strength both have enhanced power at low frequencies but no dominant timescale, and thus provide no evidence for a oscillatory ocean-only mode of variability. Instead, both indices respond linearly to the NAO forcing, but with different response times. The variability of the AMOC at 30°N is strongly enhanced on timescales longer than 90 years, while that of the SPG strength starts increasing at 15 years. The different response characteristics are confirmed by constructing simple statistical models that show AMOC and SPG variability can be related to the NAO variability of the previous 53 and 10 winters, respectively. Alternatively, the AMOC and the SPG strength can be reconstructed with Auto-regressive (AR) models of order seven and five, respectively. Both statistical models reconstruct interannual and multidecadal AMOC variability well, while on the other hand, the AR(5) reconstruction of the SPG strength only captures multidecadal variability. Using these methods to reconstruct ocean variables can be useful for prediction and model intercomparision.     

Pacific Walker Circulation variability in coupled and uncoupled climate models

There is still considerable uncertainty concerning twentieth century trends in the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). In this paper, observational datasets, coupled (CMIP5) and uncoupled (AGCM) model simulations, and additional numerical sensitivity experiments are analyzed to investigate twentieth century changes in the PWC and their physical mechanisms. The PWC weakens over the century in the CMIP5 simulations, but strengthens in the AGCM simulations and also in the observational twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) dataset. It is argued that the weakening in the CMIP5 simulations is not a consequence of a reduced global convective mass flux expected from simple considerations of the global hydrological response to global warming, but is rather due to a weakening of the zonal equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. Further clarification is provided by additional uncoupled atmospheric general circulation model simulations in which the ENSO-unrelated and ENSO-related portions of the observed SST changes are prescribed as lower boundary conditions. Both sets of SST forcing fields have a global warming trend, and both sets of simulations produce a weakening of the global convective mass flux. However, consistent with the strong role of the zonal SST gradient, the PWC strengthens in the simulations with the ENSO-unrelated SST forcing, which has a strengthening zonal SST gradient, despite the weakening of the global convective mass flux. Overall, our results suggest that the PWC strengthened during twentieth century global warming, but also that this strengthening was partly masked by a weakening trend associated with ENSO-related PWC variability.     

Northern hemisphere winter atmospheric climate: modes of natural variability and climate change

Under anthropogenic climate change it is possible that the increased radiative forcing and associated changes in mean climate may affect the “dynamical equilibrium” of the climate system; leading to a change in the relative dominance of different modes of natural variability, the characteristics of their patterns or their behavior in the time domain. Here we use multi-century integrations of version three of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model coupled to a mixed layer ocean to examine potential changes in atmosphere-surface ocean modes of variability. After first evaluating the simulated modes of Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature and geopotential height against observations, we examine their behavior under an idealized equilibrium doubling of atmospheric CO₂. We find no significant changes in the order of dominance, the spatial patterns or the associated time series of the modes. Having established that the dynamic equilibrium is preserved in the model on doubling of CO₂, we go on to examine the temperature pattern of mean climate change in terms of the modes of variability; the motivation being that the pattern of change might be explicable in terms of changes in the amount of time the system resides in a particular mode. In addition, if the two are closely related, we might be able to assess the relative credibility of different spatial patterns of climate change from different models (or model versions) by assessing their representation of variability. Significant shifts do appear to occur in the mean position of residence when examining a truncated set of the leading order modes. However, on examining the complete spectrum of modes, it is found that the mean climate change pattern is close to orthogonal to all of the modes and the large shifts are a manifestation of this orthogonality. The results suggest that care should be exercised in using a truncated set of variability EOFs to evaluate climate change signals.     

An Integrated Analysis of Dry-Wet Variability in Western China for the Last 4-5 Centuries

The dry-wet variability in western China and its spatiotemporal structure during the last 4-5 centuries was examined using 24 climate proxies from sediments, ice cores, historical documents, and tree rings. Spatial patterns and temporal evolutions of dryness and wetness were not only extracted from the proxy data using rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis for the last 4 centuries, but also for instrumental data in the last 40 years. The leading five REOF modes indicate that 5 dry-...     

Present and historical climate variability in South West England

West Cornwall is the most south westerly part of mainland United Kingdom with a strong maritime climate. This paper analyses the earliest archived instrumental meteorological records collected in West Cornwall (SW England). Observations were obtained from the Met Office archive (Camborne 1957–2010; Culdrose 1985–2011), Trengwainton Garden (1940–2010), and from the Royal Cornwall Polytechnic Society, (data for Falmouth (1880–1952) and Helston (1843–1888)). Homogeneity tests were used (Levene and Brown-Forsythe tests) to exclude any trends not related to climate variability. The data exhibit trends in annual mean and maximum temperatures over the timescales analysed, and show a general temperature increase in the 20th and 21st century. Annual and seasonal temperature change was found to vary locally with strongly positive trends in autumn, spring and summer seasons. Trends in precipitation are positive only for the 19th century and only for one station. Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index gives negative results for precipitation data. However correlation with the NAO index is positive with temperature, especially in the winter season. Return period analysis shows a decrease in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events in the post-1975 period (Camborne and Trengwainton Garden stations). Climate change in the 20th century and future continued warming is likely to have major implications on biodiversity in this region.     

Prediction of primary climate variability modes at the Beijing Climate Center

Climate variability modes, usually known as primary climate phenomena, are well recognized as the most important predictability sources in subseasonal–interannual climate prediction. This paper begins by reviewing the research and development carried out, and the recent progress made, at the Beijing Climate Center (BCC) in predicting some primary climate variability modes. These include the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), on global scales, as well as the sea surface temperature (SST) modes in the Indian Ocean and North Atlantic, western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the East Asian winter and summer monsoons (EAWM and EASM, respectively), on regional scales. Based on its latest climate and statistical models, the BCC has established a climate phenomenon prediction system (CPPS) and completed a hindcast experiment for the period 1991–2014. The performance of the CPPS in predicting such climate variability modes is systematically evaluated. The results show that skillful predictions have been made for ENSO, MJO, the Indian Ocean basin mode, the WPSH, and partly for the EASM, whereas less skillful predictions were made for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and North Atlantic SST Tripole, and no clear skill at all for the AO, subtropical IOD, and EAWM. Improvements in the prediction of these climate variability modes with low skill need to be achieved by improving the BCC’s climate models, developing physically based statistical models as well as correction methods for model predictions. Some of the monitoring/prediction products of the BCC-CPPS are also introduced in this paper.     

Simulation of the intraseasonal variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in climate models

During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50?km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode. Further analysis illustrates that the observed 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC is closely linked to the eastward propagating ISV signals from the Indian Ocean/Western Pacific, which is in agreement with the general impression that the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC could be a local expression of the global Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In contrast, the convective signals associated with the 40-day mode over the EPAC in most of the GCM simulations tend to originate between 150°E and 150°W, suggesting the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC might be sustained without the forcing by the eastward propagating MJO. Further investigation is warranted towards improved understanding of the origin of the ISV over the EPAC.