Radioisotopic evidence of perturbations of recent sedimentary record in lakes: a word of caution for climate studies

The rate of climatic change estimated from the gradient of signals recorded in lake sediments may be erroneous if post-depositional perturbations are overlooked. A smear out of a pulse signal, over a variable thickness of core section, due to physical or biological mixing, is a well known phenomena. Much less attention is paid to a possible overestimation of the rate of change when a part of record is missing due to an erosion event. In this paper we show a few examples of recent lake sediment perturbations and the resulting distortions in the time scale, as documented by short-lived radionuclides.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Climatic jumps in the flood/drought historical chronology of central China

Statistical series of flood/drought (F/D) grades and F/D variabilities were derived for the flood and drought chronology (2700 bc-1980 AD) of central China. Two types of climatic jumps were analyzed. The moving sign-test, T-test and F-test were applied to detect jump signals. A few wet-to-dry jumps for time-scales from decades to thousand years were compared with relevant climatic changes in other regions of the world. Changes in the annual rainfall due to jumps were estimated. Some F/D-deficient-to-F/D-frequent jumps were also found and their significance is discussed.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Window technique for climate trend analysis

Climatic characteristics are affected by various systematic and occasional impacts: besides the changes in the observing system (locations of the stations of the meteorological network, instruments, observing procedures), the possible local-scale and global natural and antropogenic impacts on climatic conditions should be taken into account. Apart from the predictability problems, the phenomenological analysis of the climatic variability and the determination of past persistent climatic anomalies are significant problems, among other aspects, as evidence of the possible anomalous behavior of climate or for climate impact studies. In this paper, a special technique for the identification of such shifts in the observational series is presented. The existence of these significant shorter or longer term changes in the mean characteristics for the properly selected adjoining periods of time is the necessary condition for the formation of any more or less unidirectional climatic trends. Actually, the window technique is based on a complete set of orthogonal functions. The sensitivity of the proposed model on its main parameters is also investigated. This method is applied for hemispheric and Hungarian data series of the mean annual surface temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Continental vegetation as a dynamic component of a global climate model: a preliminary assessment

A simplified vegetation distribution prediction scheme is used in combination with the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and coupled to a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1) which includes a mixed-layer ocean. Employed in an off-line mode as a diagnostic tool, the scheme predicts a slightly darker and slightly rougher continental surface than when BATS' prescribed vegetation classes are used. The impact of tropical deforestation on regional climates, and hence on diagnosed vegetation, differs between South America and S.E. Asia. In the Amazon, the climatic effects of removing all the tropical forest are so marked that in only one of the 18 deforested grid elements could the new climate sustain tropical forest vegetation whereas in S.E. Asia in seven of the 9 deforested elements the climate could continue to support tropical forest. Following these off-line tests, the simple vegetation scheme has been coupled to the GCM as an interactive (or two-way) submodel for a test integration lasting 5.6 yr. It is found to be a stable component of the global climate system, producing only ~ 3% (absolute) interannual changes in the predicted percentages of continental vegetation, together with globally-averaged continental temperature increases of up to + 1.5 °C and evaporation increases of 0 to 5 W m^–2 and no discernible trends over the 67 months of integration. On the other hand, this interactive land biosphere causes regional-scale temperature differences of ± 10 °C and commensurate disturbances in other climatic parameters. Tuning, similar to the q-flux schemes used for ocean models, could improve the simulation of the present-day surface climate but, in the longer term, it will be important to focus on predicting the characteristics of the continental surface rather than simple vegetation classes. The coupling scheme will also have to allow for vegetation responses occurring over longer timescales so that the coupled system is buffered from sudden shocks.     

Climatic change evidence and lacustrine varves from maar lakes,Germany

Annually laminated, non-glacial lake sediments from Lake Holzmaar (Eifel, western Germany) were investigated using large Merkt thin sections. The absolute age of varve intervals with variations in thickness and composition were correlated to climatic changes recorded by glacier fluctuations in the Alps. Back to 8800 years VT (varve time = varve years before 1950) glacier advances coincide with sedimentation rate minima; prior to 8800 years VT they coincide with sedimentation rate maxima. The early and middle Holocene sediments suggest a periodicity of about 1000 years for cold/warm cycles. A sequence of 512 varve-thickness measurements was subjected to spectral analysis. These provide apparent evidence for a 11-year sun-spot cycle.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program.     

Evidence for an early Holocene climatic optimum in the Antarctic deep ice-core record

In the interpretation of the Antarctic deep ice-core data, little attention has been given to the Holocene part of the records. As far as translation of the stable isotope content in terms of temperature is concerned, this can be understood because expected temperature changes may be obscured by isotopic noise of various origins and because no ¹⁴C dating has yet been available for this type of sequence. In this article, we focus on the Dome C and Vostok cores and on a new 850-m long ice core drilled out at Komsomolskaïa by the Soviet Antarctic Expeditions. These three sites are located in East Antarctica, on the Antarctic plateau, in a region essentially undisturbed by ice-flow conditions, so that their detailed intercomparison may allow us to identify the climatically significant isotopic signal. Our results compare well with the proximal records of Southern Hemisphere high latitudes and support the existence of a warmer climatic optimum between 10 and 6 ka y BP. Maximum temperatures are reached just at the end of the last deglaciation, which confirms previous observations at high latitudes, in contrast with later dates for the Atlantic and hypsithermal optima in Europe and North America.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Drought frequency in central California since 101 B.C. recorded in giant sequoia tree rings

Well replicated tree-ring width index chronologies have been developed for giant sequoia at three sites in the Sierra Nevada, California. Extreme low-growth events in these chronologies correspond with regional drought events in the twentieth century in the San Joaquin drainage, in which the giant sequoia sites are located. This relationship is based upon comparison of tree-ring indices with August Palmer Drought Severity Indices for California Climate Division 5. Ring-width indices in the lowest decile from each site were compared. The frequency of low-growth events which occurred at all three sites in the same year is reconstructed from 101 B.C. to A.D. 1988. The inferred frequency of severe drought events changes through time, sometimes suddenly. The period from roughly 1850 to 1950 had one of the lowest frequencies of drought of any one hundred year period in the 2089 year record. The twentieth century so far has had a below-average frequency of extreme droughts.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Climatic trends in the Amazonian area of Ecuador: Classical and multifractal analyses

The climate evolution and change in the Amazonian area is very important at least at a continental scale involving Latin America where more than 550 million people live. The objective of the present study was to investigate, from an environmental perspective, the climatic trends in the Amazonian area of continental Ecuador. We performed both classical and multifractal analyses of these trends on four climatic variables (maximum and minimum temperature, evaporation and evaporation/precipitation ratio). Data were collected from Puyo meteorological station, Pastaza Province, Ecuador. Data sets covered 31 years (from January 1974 to September 2005). Each time series consisted of 380 months.Piecewise regression analyses with breaking point showed two regimes with a cutoff ranging from t = 80 months (maximum and minimum temperature) to t = 133 months for the evaporation pattern (determination coefficient ≥ 0.979) while the multifractal analyses showed an increasing complexity within each climatic variable. All the considered climatic variables showed an increase since 1974 to approximately 1985. After that some type of smoother increase was observed.     

The behavior of total lightning activity in severe Florida thunderstorms

The development of a new observational system called LISDAD (Lightning Imaging Sensor Demonstration and Display) has enabled a study of severe weather in central Florida. The total flash rates for storms verified to be severe are found to exceed 60 fpm, with some values reaching 500 fpm. Similar to earlier results for thunderstorm microbursts, the peak flash rate precedes the severe weather at the ground by 5–20 min. A distinguishing feature of severe storms is the presence of lightning ‘jumps' — abrupt increases in flash rate in advance of the maximum rate for the storm. The systematic total lightning precursor to severe weather of all kinds — wind, hail, tornadoes — is interpreted in terms of the updraft that sows the seeds aloft for severe weather at the surface and simultaneously stimulates the ice microphysics that drives the intracloud lightning activity.     

Rates of change in the European palynological record of the last 13 000 years and their climatic interpretation

Rates of change of pollen spectra throughout Europe during the last 13 000 years have been calculated. The overall mean rate of change curve shows peaks corresponding to known times of rapid palaeoenvironmental change between 13 000 and 12000y BP, and between 10 000 and 9000 y BP. These peaks are strongest in the north and west of Europe. As in eastern North America (Jacobson et al. 1987), highest rates of change are recorded during the last millennium. At this time the changes of greatest magnitude are in areas of Europe with winter climate conditions strongly influenced by the North Atlantic. It is hypothesized that the overall pattern of Holocene climate change in Europe, and especially the changes of the last millennium, result from changes in the North Atlantic that have most strongly influenced winter conditions in western Europe.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Recent hydroclimatic fluctuations and their effects on water resources in Illinois

Two contrasting 18 yr periods (1950–1967 and 1968–1985) were compared to illustrate the hydrologic and water resources effects of a change to a wetter climatic regime over Illinois. For the nine State Climate Divisions, precipitation increases and fluctuations in wetness measured by Palmer Drought Indices revealed a marked shift between the periods. The seasonal variability and spatial coherence of this precipitation climate fluctuation and its impacts are examined in detail and quantitative relationships are derived between Drought Indices and measured soil moisture and streamflow at several sites. Riverflow and well level changes are consistent with this climate change on the 20–40 yr time-scale which has had some significance for water management in the area.     

A study of long-term climate change in a simple seasonal nonlinear climate model

Solar radiation cycles, earth-orbital changes, and continental drift drive long to very long term (10³–10⁶ years) climatic changes. Lin and North used the stationary solutions of a simple energy balance model (EBM) to study the equilibrium climatic stages. In this paper, we study time dependent solutions and, in particular, transition processes. We make use of two time scales: a seasonal cycle (fast variation) and a long term time change (slow variation). Variations over short time scales are solved using a Fourier transform in time and long term variations are studied using a 4th order Runge-Kutta method. The energy balance equation is a parabolic type equation and it is well posed. Climate changes depend mainly on external forcing and the state of the climate is determined by the slow time scale forcing. In other words, transitions from one climate stage (snow-covered) to another (snow-free) at bifurcation points are monotonic, despite 20% to 50% shortperiod random fluctuations in the solar energy. This smooth transition is especially noticeable when the land bands lie close to the north pole (70° N to 90° N) or at high latitudes (50° N to 75° N).Now at Applied Physics Laboratory, The Johns Hopkins University, Laurel, MD 20723, USA     

Origin of the northern Atlantic's Heinrich events

As first noted by Heinrich, 1988, glacial age sediments in the eastern part of the northern Atlantic contain layers with unusually high ratios of ice-rafted lithic fragments to foraminifera shells. He estimated that these layers are spaced at intervals of roughly 10 000 years. In this paper we present detailed information documenting the existence of the upper five of these layers in ODP core 609 from 50° N and 24° W. Their ages are respectively 15 000 radiocarbon years, 20 000 radiocarbon years, 27 000 radiocarbon years, about 40 000 years, and about 50 000 years. We also note that the high lithic fragment to foram ratio is the result of a near absence of shells in these layers. Although we are not of one mind regarding the origin of these layers, we lean toward an explanation that the Heinrich layers are debris released during the melting of massive influxes of icebergs into the northern Atlantic. These sudden inputs may be the result of surges along the eastern margin of the Laurentide ice sheet.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Microphysical, chemical and optical aerosol properties in the Baltic Sea region

The microphysical structure, chemical composition and prehistory of aerosol are related to the aerosol optical properties and radiative effect in the UV spectral range. The aim of this work is the statistical mapping of typical aerosol scenarios and adjustment of regional aerosol parameters. The investigation is based on the in situ measurements in Preila (55.55° N, 21.00° E), Lithuania, and the AERONET data from the Gustav Dalen Tower (58 N, 17 E), Sweden.Clustering of multiple characteristics enabled to distinguish three aerosol types for clear-sky periods: 1) clean maritime–continental aerosol; 2) moderately polluted maritime–continental aerosol; 3) polluted continental aerosol. Differences between these types are due to significant differences in aerosol number and volume concentration, effective radius of volume distribution, content of SO₄⁻ ions and Black Carbon, as well as different vertical profiles of atmospheric relative humidity. The UV extinction, aerosol optical depth (AOD) and the Ångstrom coefficient α increased with the increasing pollution. The value α = 1.96 was observed in the polluted continental aerosol that has passed over central and eastern Europe and southern Russia. Reduction of the clear-sky UV index against the aerosol-free atmosphere was of 4.5%, 27% and 41% for the aerosol types 1, 2 and 3, respectively.     

Rates of change and chronological problems during the late-glacial period

Results of high-resolution AMS ¹⁴C dating of terrestrial plant macrofossils from late-glacial and early-Holocene lake deposits in Switzerland show three periods with constant radiocarbon ages. These plateaux of constant age occur at 12700, 10000, and 9500 y BP. A comparison of this radiocarbon chronology with a varve chronology documents discrepancies between the sidereal and the radiocarbon time-scale for the late-glacial period. The age-plateaux and the time-scale discrepancies have a significant impact on the estimation of rates of change during this period: estimates of rates of change can be very misleading if calculated on the basis of radiocarbon ages. This is illustrated by an example of estimated rates of late-glacial and early Holocene palynological change in Switzerland.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Evidence for recent warming from perturbed geothermal gradients: examples from eastern Canada

Recent variations of the surface temperature of the Earth can be inferred from borehole temperature measurements. Generalized inversion is used to extract the information from the data; the potential of the method is evaluated. Tests were performed with synthetic data to demonstrate the effectiveness of the inversion to recover the gross features of the surface temperature history even when the data are affected by noise and errors. The tests show that it is possible to reconstruct the long term changes in ground temperature during the past 300 years; the resolution decreases with time, in particular if noise and errors must be filtered. Temperature logs, obtained in eastern Canada, and not suspected of being affected by non-climatic factors, have been inverted. The analysis confirms that eastern Canada has experienced warming by 1 to 2°C over the past 100–200 years. The relationship between air and ground temperatures has been examined. In eastern Canada ground temperature follows air temperature closely in summer but stays well above air temperature in winter. The number of days with snow on the ground correlates with the difference between annual mean ground and air temperature.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate-Program     

Stable isotope (O and C) and pollen trends in eastern Lake Erie,evidence for a locally-induced climatic reversal of Younger Dryas age in the Great Lakes basin

A cool period from about 11000 to 10 500 BP (11 to 10.5 ka) is recognized in pollen records from the southern Great Lakes area by the return of Picea and Abies dominance and by the persistence of herbs. The area of cooling appears centred on the Upper Great Lakes. A high-resolution record (ca. 9 mm/y) from a borehole in eastern Lake Erie reveals, in the same time interval, this pollen anomaly, isotope evidence of meltwater presence (a — 3 per mil shift in ¹⁸O and a +1.1 per mil shift in ¹³C), increased sand, and reduced detrital calcite content, all suggesting concurrent cooling of Lake Erie. The onset of cooling is mainly attributed to the effect of enhanced meltwater inflow on the relatively large upstream Main Lake Algonquin during the first eastward discharge of glacial Lake Agassiz. Termination of the cooling coincides with drainage of Lake Algonquin, and is attributed to loss of its cooling effectiveness associated with a substantial reduction in its surface area. It is hypothesized that the cold extra inflow effectively prolonged the seasonal presence of lake ice and the period of spring overturn in Lake Algonquin. The deep mixing would have greatly increased the thermal conductive capacity of this extensive lake, causing suppression of summer surface lakewater temperatures and reduction of onshore growing-degree days. Alternatively, a rapid flow of meltwater, buoyed on sediment-charged (denser) lakewater, may have kept the lake surface cold in summer. Other factors such as wind-shifted pollen deposition and possible effects from the Younger Dryas North Atlantic cooling could have contributed to the Great Lakes climatic reversal, but further studies are needed to resolve their relative significance.Contribution to Climo Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate ProgramGeological Survey of Canada Contribution 58 890     

Paleoclimatic inferences from glacial fluctuations on Svalbard during the last 20 000 years

The climate history of western Spitsbergen, Svalbard is deduced from variations of glaciers during the last 20 000 years. A major depression of the regional equilibrium line altitude (ELA) occurred during the Late Weichselian glacial maximum (18000–13000y ago) when low summer temperatures may have caused year-round snow accumulation on the ground. This rapid expansion of the glaciers also indicates nearby moisture sources, suggesting partly open conditions in the Norwegian Sea during the summers. A rapid glacial retreat around 13 000–12 500 y BP was caused by a sudden warming. During the Younger Dryas the ELA along the extreme western coast of Spitsbergen was not significantly lower than at present. In contrast to Fennoscandia, the British Isles and the Alps, there is no evidence for readvance of local glaciers during Younger Dryas on western Spitsbergen. This difference is attributed to a much dryer climate on Spitsbergen and probably only slight changes in sea surface temperatures. In addition, summer melting in this high arctic area is more sensitive to orbitally increased insolation. Around 10 000 y BP another rapid warming occurred and during early and mid Holocene the summer temperatures were significantly higher than at present. A temperature decline during the late Holocene caused regrowth of the glaciers which reached their maximum Holocene position during the last century.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Quantitative estimates of full glacial temperatures in equatorial Africa from palynological data*

This paper presents a new reconstruction of the mean annual temperature obtained from a high altitude pollen sequence in equatorial Africa (3°28S, 29°34E, 2240 m). It has been achieved with an extended modern African reference data set by adding spectra from 228 new sites and using another selection for pollen taxa. The purpose of this paper is to test how the obtained temperature value depends upon the availability of modern analogues. The results are in good agreement with those previously published, reinforcing the validity of the method. The mean standard error is reduced by 0.3°C. The mean temperature for the Holocene appears + 1.4°C warmer than the present and the last glacial maximum (25-18 kyrs BP) cooling is better specified at – 3 ± 1.9° C, a conservative value, more consistent with reconstructed sea surface temperature in the equatorial ocean.Contribution to Clima Locarno - Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Climatic fluctuations in Bohemia from the 16th century until the present

Summary This is paper appraises the possibilities of using written sources of weather information and indirect indicators of the climate of Bohemia. The data are related mainly to the socalled Bohemian vine and hop growing region (the lower reaches of the Ohe River). On the basis of these data climatic fluctuations from the 16th century up to the present are described. Characteristics of climatic types are presented: the continental type (1501–1560, 1681–1750), the oceanic type (1561–1630), and the ambiguous type (1631–1680). On the basis of instrumental observations of the station Prague Klementinum it is possible to describe fluctuations of air temperature since 1771 and fluctuations of precipitation since 1804. These series are the basis material for the analysis of the cyclicity of climatic fluctuations and for the study of possible causes of this cyclicity. The obtained information of the climate of Bohemia since the 16th century for forecasting the climate fluctuations by means of the so-called diagnostic methods, which are based on the method of analogies.With 7 Figures