Contribution of the sea surface temperature over the Mediterranean-Black Sea to the decadal shift of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation

Recent observational study has shown that the southern center of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) was located farther eastward after the late 1970s compared to before. In this study, the cause for this phenomenon is explored. The result shows that the eastward shift of the SNAO southern center after the late 1970s is related to the variability of the Mediterranean-Black Sea (MBS) SST. A warm MBS SST can heat and moisten its overlying atmosphere, consequently producing a negative sea level pressure (SLP) departure over the MBS region. Because the MBS SST is negatively correlated with the SNAO, the negative SLP departure can enhance the eastern part of the negative-phase of the SNAO southern center, consequently producing an eastward SNAO southern center shift. Similarly, a cold MBS SST produces an eastward positive-phase SNAO southern center shift. The reason for why the MBS SST has an impact on the SNAO after the late 1970s but why it is not the case beforehand is also discussed. It is found that this instable relationship is likely to be attributed to the change of the variability of the MBS SST on the decadal time-scale. In 1951--1975, the variability of the MBS SST is quite weak, but in 1978--2002, it becomes more active. The active SST can enhance the interaction between the sea and its overlying atmosphere, thus strengthening the connection between the MBS SST and the SNAO after the late 1970s. The above observational analysis results are further confirmed by sensitivity experiments.     

春季南极涛动对北美夏季风的影响

This study examined the relationship between the boreal spring(April?May) Antarctic Oscillation(AAO) and the North American summer monsoon(NASM)(July?September) for the period of 1979?2008.The results show that these two systems are closely related.When the spring AAO was stronger than normal,the NASM tended to be weaker,and there was less rainfall over the monsoon region.The opposite NASM situation corresponded to a weaker spring AAO.Further analysis explored the possible mechanism for the delayed impact of the boreal spring AAO on the NASM.It was found that the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST) plays an important role in the connection between the two phenomena.The variability of the boreal spring AAO can produce anomalous SSTs over the tropical Atlantic.These SST anomalies can persist from spring to summer and can influence the Bermuda High,affecting water vapor transportation to the monsoon region.Through these processes,the boreal spring AAO exerts a significantly delayed impact on the amount of NASM precipitation.Thus,information about the boreal spring AAO is valuable for the prediction of the NASM.     

Impact of Preceding Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Early Autumn Precipitation over Central China

This study examined the impact of the preceding boreal summer（June–August） North Atlantic Oscillation（NAO） on early autumn（September） rainfall over Central China（RCC）. The results show that a significant positive correlation exists between the preceding summer NAO and the early autumn RCC on the interannual timescale. In order to understand the physical mechanism between them, the role of ocean was investigated. It was found that the strong summer NAO can induce a tripole sea surface temperature anomaly（SSTA） in the North Atlantic; this SSTA pattern can persist until early autumn. The diagnostic analysis showed that the tripole SSTA pattern excites a downstream Atlantic-Eurasian（AEA） teleconnection, which contributes to an increase in RCC. The circulation anomalies related to SSTA caused by the weak NAO are opposite, so the RCC is less than normal. The results imply that the preceding summer NAO may be regarded as a forecast factor for the early autumn RCC.     

Trends and Variability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northwest Atlantic from Three Historical Gridded Datasets

ABSTRACT

Historical variability in sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic (NA) is examined using trend and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analyses of annual and summer means from three interpolated monthly datasets: Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST1), Extended Reconstruction of SST (ERSST), and Centennial in situ Observation-Based Estimates (COBE). Comparisons with time series of upper-ocean temperature from four monitoring sites off Atlantic Canada reveal substantial similarity in the interannual to multi-decadal variability but notable differences in the longer-term trends. The magnitude of decadal-scale variability is comparable to, or greater than, the long-term changes in all of the datasets; together with the trend discrepancies, this needs to be considered in climate change applications. Averaged over the NA, the annual means have a long-term increasing trend and a pronounced multi-decadal variation, resembling those in global mean (land-ocean) surface temperature and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). There is remarkable similarity in the spatial and temporal variability of the three leading EOF modes from the different gridded datasets, with the first highly correlated with the AMO, the second modestly correlated with the winter North Atlantic Oscillation, and the third apparently related to ocean circulation variability. Trends since 1981 are generally two to three times larger than those since 1900 and 1950, which is at least partly related to the phase of the AMO. Trends in the summer means are generally larger than in the annual means. Overall, the results provide support for both anthropogenic global warming and decadal-scale natural variations making important contributions to ocean climate variability in the Northwest Atlantic.     

Characteristics of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Their Influences on the Onset of South China Sea Summer Monsoon

The characteristics of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in the tropical oceans and their influences on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)have been studied.The anomaly of SST in tropical Pacific Ocean exerts persistence impact for one to three months on atmospheric circulations.If the warm pool becomes anomalously warmer during an earlier period from February to April,the SCSSM breaks out earlier,and vice versa.Singular value decomposition(SVD)and composite analysis have shown that,in La Ni a pattern,the convection over Western Pacific will occur earlier and be stronger than normal,which favors the convergence at a lower layer over Western Pacific,as well as the strengthening of upwelling branch of Walker circulation,leading to an earlier burst of westerly in the southern South China Sea.Moreover,the convection in Sumatra appears earlier than normal and favors the westerly evolution in eastern Indian Ocean,resulting in the splitting of the subtropical high belt and an early onset of SCSSM.However,the atmospheric circulation anomaly is reversed in El Nio pattern.     

20世纪北大西洋温盐环流的年代际变化试评估

根据相对丰富的大气器测资料,综合前人对有限的海洋资料的诊断分析,从北大西洋涛动(NAO)变率、表层海温(SST)变率、格陵兰海和拉布拉多海的深对流活动长期变化等不同角度,对20世纪大洋温盐环流(Thermohaline Circulation,THC)变率进行了试评估.结果表明:(1)19世纪末以来,大西洋温盐环流的变化可分为4个时期:1900年以前的一段时期,THC较强;1904年到1930年,THC较弱;1931年到1972年,THC较强;1973年至1995年,THC较弱,目前则又有所增强.(2)与THC的变化相联系,大西洋主要气候要素的变化,相互间存在着某种协调关系,THC强,NAO弱,北大西洋北部SST升高,格陵兰海的对流活动增强,拉布拉多海的对流活动则减弱.     

基于前春对流层温度和北大西洋涛动的中国夏季降水统计预测模型

本文在分析中国夏季降水典型模态与前期春季对流层中上层温度主要分布类型、北大西洋涛动(简称NAO)之间关系的基础上,提出基于前春对流层温度和NAO的中国夏季降水统计预测模型,并对利用该模型预报的2004～2009年中国160站夏季降水进行检验.结果表明:中国大范围夏季降水多寡主要与5月NAO变化有关,“南多(少)北少(多...     

大洋间SST遥联与亚太夏季风异常的关系

用奇异值分解(Singular Value Decomposition,SVD)方法,给出了四季年代际和年际时间尺度上北大西洋和北太平洋海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)的显著遥相关.用SVD主模态时间系数构造了海温异常指数Ⅰ,分析了它们与同期亚太夏季风和我国东部夏季降水异常的关系.结果表明:两大洋间的SST遥联在年际、年代际时间尺度上都与亚太夏季风相关,其中,年际尺度的两大洋SST遥联与长江流域的降水存在显著相关.     

斯堪的纳维亚上空的臭氧亏损与北大西洋海温

利用TOMS臭氧资料和NCAR/NCEP再分析海温资料，分析研究了斯堪的纳维亚地区的臭氧亏损状况及其季节变化规律，指出在斯堪的纳维亚地区上空存在一个严重的臭氧亏损区。该臭氧亏损有明显的季节变化:冬季最强，夏季最弱。同时研究了北大西洋海温分布和季节变化，指出其与斯堪的纳维亚地区臭氧亏损有极好的负相关。因此，认为可以用北大西洋海温的季节变化来估计斯堪的纳维亚地区气候尺度的臭氧亏损变化。     

Tropical Pacific Decadal Oscillation in Subsurface Ocean Temperature

This study utilizes a new monthly-assimilated sea temperature and analyzes trend and decadal oscillations in tropical Pacific 100-200 m subsurface ocean temperature (SOT) from 1945 to 2005 on the basis of the harmonic analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) methods. Significant cooling trends in the SOT in the tropical western Pacific were found over this 60-year period. The first EOF of the SOT in tropical Pacific displays an ENSO-like zonal dipole pattern on decadal time scale, and we considered this pattern in subsurface ocean temperature the tropical Pacific decadal oscillation (TPDO). Our analysis suggests that TPDO is closely correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in the surface sea temperature (SST). The correlation coefficient between the indices of TPDO and PDO is +0.81 and reaches a maximum of +0.84 when TPDO lags behind PDO by 2 months. Therefore, a change of TPDO is likely related to the variation of PDO. The long-term change in TPDO best explains decadal warming in the tropical eastern Pacific SST and implies potential impact on the weakening of East Asian summer monsoons after the late 1970s.     

Possible Impact of the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation on Extreme Hot Events in China

This paper reveals that the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) is closely related to the extreme hot event (EHE) variability in China during the period of 1979 2009, with a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO corresponding to less (more) EHEs in northern China. The summer circulation anomalies associated with the SNAO give further confirmation of the above relationship. In a positive-phase (negative-phase) SNAO year, there is an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over central East Asia, which can increase (decrease) the total cloud cover over this region. Such changes of the total cloud cover can then decrease (increase) the solar radiation reaching the surface, which is consequently unfavorable (favorable) to the formation of EHEs over northern China.     

Enhancement of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation influence on Northern Hemisphere air temperature

This study investigates the relationship between the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) and the simultaneous Northern Hemisphere (NH) land surface air temperature (SAT) by using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) data. The results show that the SNAO is related to NH land SAT, but this linkage has varied on decadal timescales over the last 52 years, with a strong connection appearing after the late 1970s, but a weak connection before. The mechanism governing the relationship between the SNAO and NH land SAT is discussed based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results indicate that such a variable relationship may result from changes of the SNAO mode around the late 1970s. The SNAO pattern was centered mainly over the North Atlantic before the late 1970s, and thus had a weak influence on the NH land SAT. But after the late 1970s, the SNAO pattern shifted eastward and its southern center was enhanced in magnitude and extent, which transported the SNAO signal to the North Atlantic surrounding continents and even to central East Asia via an upper level wave train along the Asian jet.     

北大西洋涛动对新疆夏季降水异常的影响

利用1961~2003年NCEP/NCAR再分析和新疆75个气象站月降水资料,分析新疆夏季降水与沿西亚副热带西风急流Rossby波和北大西洋涛动（NAO）的关系,研究表明,夏季斯堪的纳维亚半岛-中欧—西亚和中亚的准静止波传播是联系NAO与沿西亚副热带西风急流波活动和新疆夏季降水变化的纽带。通过波作用量的动力学诊断分析,讨论了夏季NAO正、负位相异常年准静止波传播特征和差异,夏季NAO强弱活动影响斯堪的纳维亚半岛EP通量散度强度和位置异常,该区EP通量散度强度和位置异常导致强辐散中心在中高纬向东传播的准静止波和沿副热带西风急流准静止波活动变化,从而影响新疆夏季降水。     

The Role of the Solar Cycle in the Relationship Between the North Atlantic Oscillation and Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures

The North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） is one of the leading modes of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. It has been shown that it clearly relates to changes in meteorological variables, such as surface temperature, at hemispherical scales. However, recent studies have revealed that the NAO spatial pattern also depends upon solar forcing. Therefore, its effects on meteorological variables must vary depending upon this factor. Moreover, it could be that the Sun affects climate through variability patterns, a hypothesis that is the focus of this study. We find that the relationship between the NAO/AO and hemispheric temperature varies depending upon solar activity. The results show a positive significant correlation only when solar activity is high. Also, the results support the idea that solar activity influences tropospheric climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere via the fluctuations of the stratospheric polar vortex .     

热带印度洋春季海表温度异常与南海夏季风强度变化的关系

利用50年的Reynolds月平均海表温度资料和NCEP/NCAR全球大气再分析资料,分析了热带印度洋春季海温异常对南海夏季风强度变化的影响。结果表明:1)热带印度洋春季海表温度距平(SSTA)的模态主要是全区一致型(USBM)和热带南印度洋偶极型(SIODM),USBM模态既有年际时间尺度的变化特征,又有年际以上时间尺度的变化特征,既包含有对冬季ENSO信号响应的变化特征,又有独立于ENSO的变化特征;SIODM模态主要表现为独立于ENSO的年际时间尺度变化。2)USBM模态与南海夏季风强度变化呈显著负相关关系,且二者都是对冬季ENSO信号的响应,USBM模态的年际变化不能独立于ENSO信号影响南海夏季风的强度变化。3)经(1~8年)带通滤波及去除ENSO信号的热带印度洋春季SSTA的SIODM型分布是影响南海夏季风强度变化的主要模态,表现为热带东南印度洋为负(正)、其他海区为正(负)时,南海夏季风强度增强(减弱),大气环流对热带东南印度洋SSTA热力作用的响应是造成这一关系的直接原因,SIODM型的SSTA分布与南海夏季风年际异常关系在热带印度洋长期变化趋势的暖位相期显著,在长期变化趋势的冷位相期不显著。     

全球海表温度场中主要的年代际突变及其模态

用滑动t检验法对NOAA提供的改进扩展重建的全球海表温度场（1867～2005年）的年平均时间序列进行了年代际突变的定量检验。给出了几个年代际突变时期的时空分布，这些时期有:1894～1901年、1905～1909年、1920～1930年、1939～1945年、1954～1958年、1973～1979年和1994～1998年，并确定了全球海表温度年代际突变的时间，不仅发现了大家熟知的1924、1942和1976年左右的突变，还发现了1894、1907、1956年和最近的1997年的突变。分析表明，赤道太平洋和南太平洋是海温变化的敏感区的可能性较大，其次是北太平洋和南印度洋。用合成差分析得到了全球海表温度场的年代际模态的空间分布，1895～1906年和1908～1923年、1925～1941年和1943～1955年以及1977～1996年和1998～2005年这三对模态分别在大部分海域大体上存在较为明显的反位相结构，太平洋上各个时期均表现为PDO模态，只是强度和范围有所不同，大西洋的南北结构具有不对称性，增暖占主导地位。用滑动t检验法对PDO的年代际突变的信号进行了定量的检验，发现其年代际突变的时间依次为:1908、1924、1942、1956、1976和1997年，除了1894年的突变外，其余突变年份与上述全球海表温度场的年代际突变时间基本上是一致的，这说明PDO是全球海表温度场年代际突变的重要成员之一。假如存在1997年左右的突变，1998至今时段就是全球海表温度场一个新的年代际背景，就其年代际模态而言，目前的强度比1943～1955时段的年代际背景还要强；就PDO目前的强度来说， 与1909～1923和1957～1975这两个时段的强度大体相当。     

Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia: Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction

In this paper,we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature(EASAT)and EASAT decadal prediction.The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT(EAmSAT)display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability,apart from a long-term warming trend.The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades,which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years.The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years.Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability,but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT.We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge(COAB)mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of~15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection(AAMT)pattern.An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism,with good hindcast performance.The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until~2025,implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia,followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming.The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.     

冬季北大西洋涛动对热带印度洋海表热通量的影响

利用1979—2017年TropFlux海气热通量资料、ERA5再分析资料及HadISST资料,分析了冬季北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)与同期热带印度洋海气热通量的关系。结果表明,NAO指数与热带印度洋海气净热通量整体上呈负相关,意味着NAO为正位相时,海洋向大气输送热量,其显著区域主要位于热带西印度洋(50°～70°E,10°S～10°N)。净热通量的变化主要依赖于潜热通量和短波辐射的变化;潜热通量和短波辐射在NAO正(负)位相事件期间的贡献率分别为72.96%和61.48%(71.72%和57.06%)。NAO可通过Rossby波列影响印度洋地区局地大气环流,进而影响海气热通量;当NAO为正位相时,波列沿中低纬路径传播至印度洋地区,在阿拉伯海北部对流层高层触发异常反气旋环流。该异常反气旋性环流加强了阿拉伯高压,使得北印度洋偏北风及越赤道气流加强。伴随风速的加强,海面蒸发增强,同时加强的越赤道气流导致热带辐合带强度偏强,深对流加强引起对流层水汽和云量增多,进而引起海表下行短波辐射减少。     

Linkage Between Mei-yu Precipitation and North Atlantic SST on the Decadal Timescale

This paper investigates the relationship between mei-yu and North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). Results show that they are significantly associated with each other on the decadal timescale. Both mei-yu precipitation and mei-yu duration are characterized by significant decadal variability. Their decadal components are closely correlated with a triple mode of North Atlantic SSTA in the preceding winter. Regression analysis demonstrates that the wintertime North Atlantic SSTA may impose a delayed impact on East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM) circulation and mei-yu on the decadal timescale. The persistency of SSTA plays an important role during this course. The triple SSTA mode can persist from winter until late spring. It is suggested that the springtime SSTA may excite a stationary wave-train propagating from west Eurasia to East Asia and exert an impact on mei-yu.     

A Statistical Analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its Impact on European Temperature

In this study the behaviour of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its impact on the surface air temperature in Europe 1891-1990 is analysed using statistical time series analysis techniques. For this purpose, both the NAO index (NAOI) and the surface air temperature time series from 41 European stations are split up into typical variation components. Various measures of correlation indicate that the NAOI-temperature relationships are approximately linear and most pronounced in winter. The spatial correlation patterns show a correlation decrease from North West to South East (winter) exceeding correlation coefficients of 0.6 in the Scotland-South Norwegian area. In summer, these correlations are very weak, in spring and autumn stronger but smaller than in winter. These correlations change significantly in time indicating increasing correlations in Central and North Europe and decreasing correlations in the North West. Low-frequent episodic components represented by related polynomials of different order are very outstanding in both NAO and temperatures showing up in all seasons, except summer, relative maxima roughly 1900 and in recent times, relative minima in the beginning ( ca . 1870) and roughly 1960-1970. Periodogramm analysis reveals a dominant cycle of 7.5 years (NAOI and a majority of temperature time series) whereas in case of the polynomial component one may speculate about a 80-90 year cycle.