Nonlinear singular vectors and nonlinear singular values

A novel concept of nonlinear singular vector and nonlinear singular value is introduced, which is a natural generalization of the classical linear singular vector and linear singular value to the nonlinear category. The optimization problem related to the determination of nonlinear singular vectors and singular values is formulated. The general idea of this approach is demonstrated by a simple two-dimensional quasigeostrophic model in the atmospheric and oceanic sciences. The advantage and its applications of the new method to the predictability, ensemble forecast and finite-time nonlinear instability are discussed. This paper makes a necessary preparation for further theoretical and numerical investigations.     

Nonlinear dynamics of long-wave perturbations of the Kolmogorov flow for large Reynolds numbers

The nonlinear dynamics of long-wave perturbations of the inviscid Kolmogorov flow, which models periodically varying in the horizontal direction oceanic currents, is studied. To describe this dynamics, the Galerkin method with basis functions representing the first three terms in the expansion of spatially periodic perturbations in the trigonometric series is used. The orthogonality conditions for these functions formulate a nonlinear system of partial differential equations for the expansion coefficients. Based on the asymptotic solutions of this system, a linear, quasilinear, and nonlinear stage of perturbation dynamics is identified. It is shown that the time-dependent growth of perturbations during the first two stages is succeeded by the stage of stable nonlinear oscillations. The corresponding oscillations are described by the oscillator equation containing a cubic nonlinearity, which is integrated in terms of elliptic functions. An analytical formula for the period of oscillations is obtained, which determines its dependence on the amplitude of the initial perturbation. Structural features of the field of the stream function of the perturbed flow are described, associated with the formation of closed vortex cells and meandering flow between them. As a supplement, an asymptotic analysis of nonlinear dynamics of long-wave perturbations superimposed on a damped by small viscosity Kolmogorov flow (very large, but finite Reynolds numbers) is made. It is strictly shown that all velocity components of the perturbed flow remain bounded in this case.     

The instability of barotropic circular vortices

Abstract

The linear, normal mode instability of barotropic circular vortices with zero circulation is examined in the f-plane quasigeostrophic equations. Equivalents of Rayleigh's and Fjortoft's criteria and the semicircle theorem for parallel shear flow are given, and the energy equation shows the instability to be barotropic. A new result is that the fastest growing perturbation is often an internal instability, having a finite vertical scale, but may also be an external instability, having no vertical structure. For parallel shear flow the fastest growing perturbation is always an external instability; this is Squire's theorem. Whether the fastest growing perturbation is internal or external depends upon the profile: for mean flow streamfunction profiles which monotonically decrease with radius, the instability is internal for less steep profiles with a broad velocity extremum and external for steep profiles with a narrow velocity extremum. Finite amplitude, numerical model calculations show that this linear instability analysis is not valid very far into the finite amplitude range, and that a barotropic vortex, whose fastest growing perturbation is internal, is vertically fragmented by the instability.     

A SVD-based ensemble projection algorithm for calculating the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) is an extension of the linear singular vector technique in the nonlinear regime.It represents the initial perturbation that is subjected to a given physical constraint,and results in the largest nonlinear evolution at the prediction time.CNOP-type errors play an important role in the predictability of weather and climate.Generally,when calculating CNOP in a complicated numerical model,we need the gradient of the objective function with respect to the initial perturbations to provide the descent direction for searching the phase space.The adjoint technique is widely used to calculate the gradient of the objective function.However,it is difficult and cumbersome to construct the adjoint model of a complicated numerical model,which imposes a limitation on the application of CNOP.Based on previous research,this study proposes a new ensemble projection algorithm based on singular vector decomposition(SVD).The new algorithm avoids the localization procedure of previous ensemble projection algorithms,and overcomes the uncertainty caused by choosing the localization radius empirically.The new algorithm is applied to calculate the CNOP in an intermediate forecasting model.The results show that the CNOP obtained by the new ensemble-based algorithm can effectively approximate that calculated by the adjoint algorithm,and retains the general spatial characteristics of the latter.Hence,the new SVD-based ensemble projection algorithm proposed in this study is an effective method of approximating the CNOP.     

Algorithm based on local breeding of growing modes for convection-allowing ensemble forecasting

We propose a method based on the local breeding of growing modes (LBGM) considering strong local weather characteristics for convection-allowing ensemble forecasting. The impact radius was introduced in the breeding of growing modes to develop the LBGM method. In the local breeding process, the ratio between the root mean square error (RMSE) of local space forecast at each grid point and that of the initial full-field forecast is computed to rescale perturbations. Preliminary evaluations of the method based on a nature run were performed in terms of three aspects: perturbation structure, spread, and the RMSE of the forecast. The experimental results confirm that the local adaptability of perturbation schemes improves after rescaling by the LBGM method. For perturbation physical variables and some near-surface meteorological elements, the LBGM method could increase the spread and reduce the RMSE of forecast, improving the performance of the ensemble forecast system. In addition, different from those existing methods of global orthogonalization approach, this new initial-condition perturbation method takes into full consideration the local characteristics of the convective-scale weather system, thus making convectionallowing ensemble forecast more accurate.     

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation: Applications to stability,sensitivity, and predictability

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is a nonlinear generalization of linear singular vector (LSV) and features the largest nonlinear evolution at prediction time for the initial perturbations in a given constraint. It was proposed initially for predicting the limitation of predictability of weather or climate. Then CNOP has been applied to the studies of the problems related to predictability for weather and climate. In this paper, we focus on reviewing the recent advances of CNOP’s applications, which involves the ones of CNOP in problems of ENSO amplitude asymmetry, block onset, and the sensitivity analysis of ecosystem and ocean’s circulations, etc. Especially, CNOP has been primarily used to construct the initial perturbation fields of ensemble forecasting, and to determine the sensitive area of target observation for precipitations. These works extend CNOP’s applications to investigating the nonlinear dynamical behaviors of atmospheric or oceanic systems, even a coupled system, and studying the problem of the transition between the equilibrium states. These contributions not only attack the particular physical problems, but also show the superiority of CNOP to LSV in revealing the effect of nonlinear physical processes. Consequently, CNOP represents the optimal precursors for a weather or climate event; in predictability studies, CNOP stands for the initial error that has the largest negative effect on prediction; and in sensitivity analysis, CNOP is the most unstable (sensitive) mode. In multi-equilibrium state regime, CNOP is the initial perturbation that induces the transition between equilibriums most probably. Furthermore, CNOP has been used to construct ensemble perturbation fields in ensemble forecast studies and to identify sensitive area of target observation. CNOP theory has become more and more substantial. It is expected that CNOP also serves to improve the predictability of the realistic predictions for weather and climate events plays an increasingly important role in exploring the nonlinear dynamics of atmospheric, oceanic and coupled atmosphere-ocean system. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2006CB403606, 2007CB411800), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40830955, 40675030, 40505013), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. IAP07202), and LASG State Key Laboratory Special Fund     

A design procedure for buildings equipped with energy dissipation devices using nonclassical damping and iso-performance curves

This article describes a design procedure for elastic buildings equipped with linear and nonlinear energy dissipating devices. The objective is to achieve a design that responds to a target building performance following a simple and robust step-by-step algorithm. The proposed procedure identifies first the modal significance of key design performance indicators and controls the modal properties by solving a singular two-parameter eigenvalue problem. For that purpose, a new modal significance metric is proposed, and a target frequency shift and damping ratio for the complete structure are obtained from the so-called iso-performance design curves. The design algorithm employs linear-equivalent stiffness and damping properties, which are then transformed into parameters characterizing inelastic force-deformation constitutive models corresponding to physical devices. The design algorithm leads to an optimal damper distribution corresponding to the minimum global amount of supplemental equivalent damping needed to achieve a maximum modal perturbation. The design procedure is first demonstrated using a five-story building example and then a real and complex 22-story free-plan building with two towers of rhomboid-shape plan with a very singular dynamic behavior.     

Shear flow driven magnetized planetary wave structures in the ionosphere

The generation and further linear and nonlinear dynamics of planetary ultra-low-frequency (ULF) waves are investigated in the rotating dissipative ionosphere in the presence of inhomogeneous zonal wind (shear flow). Planetary ULF magnetized Rossby type waves appear as a result of interaction of the medium with the spatially inhomogeneous geomagnetic field. An effective linear mechanism responsible for the intensification and mutual transformation of large scale magnetized Rossby type and small scale inertial waves is found. For shear flows, the operators of the linear problem are not self-conjugate, and therefore the eigenfunctions of the problem may not be orthogonal and can hardly be studied by the canonical modal approach. Hence, it becomes necessary to use the so-called nonmodal mathematical analysis. The nonmodal analysis shows that the transformation of wave disturbances in shear flows is due to the non-orthogonality of eigenfunctions of the problem in the conditions of linear dynamics. Using numerical modeling, the peculiar features of the interaction of waves with the background flow as well as the mutual transformation of wave disturbances are illustrated in the ionosphere. It has been shown that the shear flow driven wave perturbations effectively extract an energy of the shear flow increasing the own energy and amplitude. These perturbations undergo self-organization in the form of the nonlinear solitary vortex structures due to nonlinear twisting of the perturbation’s front. Depending on the features of the velocity profiles of the shear flows the nonlinear vortex structures can be either monopole vortices or vortex streets and vortex chains.     

Ensemble prediction experiments using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

Two methods for initialization of ensemble forecasts are compared, namely, singular vector (SV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The comparison is done for forecast lengths of up to 10 days with a three-level quasi-geostrophic (QG) atmospheric model in a perfect model scenario. Ten cases are randomly selected from 1982/1983 winter to 1993/1994 winter (from December to the following February). Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is adopted as a tool to measure the quality of the predicted ensembles on the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height. The results show that the forecast quality of ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP is higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range, based on the occurrence of weather regime transitions in Northern Hemisphere after about four days. Besides, the reliability of ensemble forecasts is evaluated by the Rank Histograms. The above conclusions confirm and extend those reached earlier by the authors, which stated that the introduction of CNOP improves the forecast skill under the condition that the analysis error belongs to a kind of fast-growing error by using a barotropic QG model. Supported by Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX3-SW-230), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40675030, 40633016)     

Upstream perturbation and floodplain formation effects on chute-cutoff-dominated meandering river pattern and dynamics

A sustained dynamic inflow perturbation and bar–floodplain conversion are considered crucial to dynamic meandering. Past experiments, one-dimensional modelling and linear theory have demonstrated that the initiation and persistence of dynamic meandering require a periodic transverse motion of the inflow. However, it remains unknown whether the period of the inflow perturbation affects self-formed meander dynamics. Here, we numerically study the effect of the inflow perturbation period on the development and meander dynamics of a chute-cutoff-dominated river, which requires two-dimensional modelling with vegetation forming floodplain on bars. We extended the morphodynamic model Nays2D with growth and mortality rules of vegetation to allow for meandering. We tested the effect of a transversely migrating inflow boundary by varying the perturbation period between runs over an order of magnitude around typical modelled meander periods. Following the cutoff cascade after initial meander formation from a straight channel, all runs with sufficient vegetation show series of growing meanders terminated by chute cutoffs. This generates an intricate channel belt topography with point bar complexes truncated by chutes, oxbow lakes, and scroll-bar-related vegetation age patterns. The sinuosity, braiding index and meander period, which emerge from the inherent biomorphological feedback loops, are unrelated to the inflow perturbation period, although the spin-up to dynamic equilibrium takes a longer time and distance for weak and absent inflow perturbations. This explains why, in previous experimental studies, dynamic meandering was only accomplished with a sustained upstream perturbation in flumes that were short relative to the meander wavelength. Our modelling of self-formed meander patterns is evidence that scroll-bar-dominated and chute-cutoff-dominated meanders develop from downstream convecting instabilities. This insight extends to many more fluvial, estuarine and coastal systems in morphological models and experiments, which require sustained dynamic perturbations to form complex patterns and develop natural dynamics. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

The application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations method to typhoon track ensemble forecasts

The orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) method, orthogonal singular vectors (SVs)method and CNOP+SVs method, which is similar to the orthogonal SVs method but replaces the leading SV (LSV) with the first CNOP, are adopted in both the Lorenz-96 model and Pennsylvania State University/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Fifth-Generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) for ensemble forecasts. Using the MM5, typhoon track ensemble forecasting experiments are conducted for strong Typhoon Matsa in 2005. The results of the Lorenz-96 model show that the CNOP+SVs method has a higher ensemble forecast skill than the orthogonal SVs method, but ensemble forecasts using the orthogonal CNOPs method have the highest forecast skill. The results from the MM5 show that orthogonal CNOPs have a wider horizontal distribution and better describe the forecast uncertainties compared with SVs. When generating the ensemble mean forecast, equally averaging the ensemble members in addition to the anomalously perturbed forecast members may contribute to a higher forecast skill than equally averaging all of the ensemble members. Furthermore, for given initial perturbation amplitudes, the CNOP+SVs method may not have an ensemble forecast skill greater than that of the orthogonal SVs method, but the orthogonal CNOPs method is likely to have the highest forecast skill. Compared with SVs, orthogonal CNOPs fully consider the influence of nonlinear physical processes on the forecast results; therefore, considering the influence of nonlinearity may be important when generating fast-growing initial ensemble perturbations. All of the results show that the orthogonal CNOP method may be a potential new approach for ensemble forecasting.     

An emission layer as a gravity wave detector

A three-dimensional model is used to investigate the relations between parameters of atmospheric gravity waves (GW) and the spatial structure of O₂ atmospheric (0,0) nightglow wave perturbations observed from space. It is shown that observed perturbations may be divided into the linear and nonlinear parts. The linear perturbations appear as wavelet signatures observed at certain viewing directions. The nonlinear part of the perturbations causes an increase in all sky brightness of the O₂ atmospheric (0,0) nightglow. The model shows that at certain viewing directions the cancellation effect for waves passing through the emission layer disappears. The latter gives the opportunity to create the complete set of functions that may be used for the spectral decomposition of observed brightness field. The obtained spectrum may be interpreted in terms of the Fourier coefficients of 3D-decomposition of the temperature fluctuations induced by gravity waves just near the emission layer.     

长江中游夏季降水场预报技术研究

经SVD分析,截取足够多的预报场和因子场时间系数,使其相互关系代表两场的大尺度联系,预报场时间系数与其奇异向量线性组合估计场能反映原场主要特征.借助最优化技术,选择合理的系数,建立预测公式,由因子场时间系数预测预报场时间系数,同时订正预报场时间系数心a₁ a₂ a_N本身的误差和反演过程中分析误差造成的场格点趋势预测的误差.最后将预测的预报场时间系数和对应奇异向量反演为整个场的预报.预报过程重点考虑可预报的大尺度变化,滤去不可预报的小扰动,依据两场主要耦合关系,预测预报场未来的主要变化.     

Nonlinear wave Packets of Equatorial Kelvin Waves

The weakly nonlinear dynamics of packets of equatorial Kelvin waves is studied using singular perturbation theory applied to the shallow water wave equations. Within the limits of the perturbation theory, which is formally restricted to weak mean shear and weak nonlinearity, we derive a Nonlinear Schroedinger equation to describe the envelope of the wave packet. We find that nonlinearity has a defocusing effect so that coherent wave packets must owe their existence entirely to the generation mechanism rather than to nonlinear focusing of a broad initial disturbance.     

瞬变电磁波场转换算法的改进

地球物理电磁场数据与虚拟地震波场数据之间存在数学上的等效转换关系,通过这种等效转换,可有效提高地球物理电磁法对地下目标体分界面的辨识度.但是这种转换在数学上属于不适定问题,可采用奇异值分解法处理.由于大奇异值控制计算矩阵的主要信息,小的奇异值控制计算矩阵的次要信息,传统的截断奇异值分解法只保留大奇异值,而忽略小的奇异值,导致数值解不够精确.本文提出一种新的修正方案——改进截断奇异值法,采用岭估计方法计算由小的奇异值引起的虚拟波场.模型计算结果表明：改进截断奇异值法比传统的奇异值分解法得到的波场转换结果更好,对某煤矿采空区探测数据进行了处理,成功分辨出采空区分界面.     

Nonlinear extensions of a fractal–multifractal approach for environmental modeling

We present the extension of a deterministic fractal geometric procedure aimed at representing the complexity of patterns encountered in environmental applications. The procedure, which is based on transformations of multifractal distributions via fractal functions, is extended through the introduction of nonlinear perturbations in the generating iterated linear maps. We demonstrate, by means of various simulations based on changes in parameters, that the nonlinear perturbations generate yet a richer collection of interesting patterns, as reflected by their overall shapes and their statistical and multifractal properties. It is shown that the nonlinear extensions yield structures that closely resemble complex hydrologic spatio-temporal datasets, such as rainfall and runoff time series, and width-functions of river networks. The implications of this nonlinear approach for environmental modeling and prediction are discussed.     

Effects of model sensitivity and nonlinearity on nonlinear regression of ground water flow

Nonlinear regression is increasingly applied to the calibration of hydrologic models through the use of perturbation methods to compute the Jacobian or sensitivity matrix required by the Gauss-Newton optimization method. Sensitivities obtained by perturbation methods can be less accurate than those obtained by direct differentiation, however, and concern has arisen that the optimal parameter values and the associated parameter covariance matrix computed by perturbation could also be less accurate. Sensitivities computed by both perturbation and direct differentiation were applied in nonlinear regression calibration of seven ground water flow models. The two methods gave virtually identical optimum parameter values and covariances for the three models that were relatively linear and two of the models that were relatively nonlinear, but gave widely differing results for two other nonlinear models. The perturbation method performed better than direct differentiation in some regressions with the nonlinear models, apparently because approximate sensitivities computed for an interval yielded better search directions than did more accurately computed sensitivities for a point. The method selected to avoid overshooting minima on the error surface when updating parameter values with the Gauss-Newton procedure appears for nonlinear models to be more important than the method of sensitivity calculation in controlling regression convergence.     

Current state of integrated earthquake simulation for earthquake hazard and disaster

This paper presents the current state of integrated simulation for earthquake hazard and disaster. This simulation takes advantage of the macro–micro analysis method; this method estimates an earthquake’s strong motion with high spatial and temporal resolution, using the bounding medium theory to obtain optimistic and pessimistic estimates of expected strong motion distribution and the singular perturbation expansion that results in an efficient multi-scale analysis. Integrated earthquake simulation calculates seismic responses for all structures in a target area, inputting simulated strong ground motion to a structure analysis method that is plugged into the system by means of a wrapper; a suitable method, linear or nonlinear, is chosen depending on the type of the structure. The results of all simulations are visualized so that residences and government officials can share a common recognition of earthquake hazard and disaster. Two examples of this integrated earthquake simulations are presented; one is made by plugging nonlinear structure analysis methods into the system, and the other is made for an actual city, the computer model of which is constructed with the help of available geographical information systems.     

Structure of the Indian Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation and its relationship with the zonal wind stress

We studied the structure of the Indian Ocean(IO)Meridional Overturning Circulation(MOC)by applying a nonlinear inertia theory and analyzed the coupled relationship between zonal wind stress and MOC anomalies.Our results show that the inertia theory can represent the main characteristics of the IO MOC:the subtropical cell(STC)and cross-equator cell(CEC).The stream function in equatorial and northern IO changes a sign from winter to summer.The anomalies of the zonal wind stress and stream function can be decomposed into summer monsoon mode,winter monsoon mode,and abnormal mode by using the singular vector decomposition(SVD)analysis.The first two modes correlate with the transport through 20°S and equator simultaneously whereas the relationship obscures between the third mode and transports across 20°S and equator,showing the complex air-sea interaction process.The transport experiences multi-time scale variability according to the continuous power spectrum analysis,with major periods in inter-annual and decadal scale.     

Weakly nonlinear stability to large-scale perturbations in convective magnetohydrodynamic systems without the α-effect

The problem of weakly nonlinear stability with respect to large-scale perturbations in 3-D convective magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) states in which the α-effect is absent or insignificant (e.g., because the system has symmetry relative to a center or a vertical axis) is examined. It is assumed that the MHD state whose stability is studied is free from large spatiotemporal scales and is insensitive to perturbations with the same small spatial scale as in the state under study. The equations for mean perturbation fields derived by asymptotic methods generalize the standard equations of magnetohydrodynamics (the Navier-Stokes and magnetic induction equations). A combined eddy diffusion operator, generally anisotropic and not necessarily negative definite, and additional quadratic terms similar to advective terms arise in the inferred generalized equations.