分析不稳定能量水平分布的一种方法

前言 近几年来,湿静力能量分析方法在我国天气预报工作中得到广泛应用,并在暴雨、强对流等天气预报中取得了一定成效。由于不稳定能量释放是强对流天气发展所需能量的主要来源,所以,为预报这类天气,除了当前一些能量分析项目外,有时还需要定量计算不稳定能量。通常计算不稳定能量是在热力学图解上进行的,这种计算方法不仅计算烦琐、误差大,而且还受到一定区域内探空报时效等条件的限制,目前用这种方法在某一个区域分析不稳定能量的水平分布是     

用局地不稳定能量预报盛夏暴雨

强暴雨过程就是在合适的大尺度环流条件下,不稳定能量从产生、积聚到爆发式释放的过程。我们从:(1)有利于不稳定能量积聚和释放的环流形势特征;(2)暴雨前中低层局地不稳定能量,尤其是潜在不稳定能量的条件;(3)不稳定能量爆发式释放的触发条件等三方面着手,在普查分析17年资料的基础上,建     

对流预报的平均不稳定能量指标

本文考虑了整个对流气柱内上升气块的浮力的平均效应,从而推导出一个便于日常作对流预报用的平均不稳定能量指标S(H)。 使用1959—1962年7—8月长沙的资料对S(H)指标进行检验,结果表明:S(H)指标很好地指示对流生长的规律性。     

用一种动力－统计方法提高中国夏季降水的季节预报

A dynamical-statistical post-processing approach is applied to seasonal precipitation forecasts in China during the summer. The data are ensemble-mean seasonal forecasts in summer (June-August) from four atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) in the second phase of the Canadian Historical Forecasting Project (HFP2) from 1969 to 2001. This dynamical-statistical approach is designed based on the relationship between the 500 geopotential height (Z500) forecast and the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to calibrate the precipitation forecasts. The results show that the post-processing can improve summer precipitation forecasts for many areas in China. Further examination shows that this post-processing approach is very effective in reducing the model-dependent part of the errors, which are associated with GCMs. The possible mechanisms behind the forecast's improvements are investigated.     

华北地区夏季一次致雹强风暴的分析

文章对2007年7月9日下午华北中部地区一次区域性强对流性天气过程中风暴单体的短时临近预报方法进行研究。对实际探测资料和数值模式产品的分析发现以下特点：高空槽将由后倾槽转为前倾槽、底层不稳定层结会明显加大,在地面冷锋东移冲击下在沿锋面伸展的露点锋区内可能将有强雷暴系统发展;全球谱模式T213、中尺度MM5模式的产品对区域性对流天气发生、影响的区域有3h以上的预报时效,具有一定的区域预报能力,但落点预报能力明显有限。对多普勒雷达产品的分析表明：多普勒雷达产品对灾害性天气的落点、影响区域具有30分钟以上的预测时效,通过基本反射率、相对风暴速度等产品的特征判断一个对流风暴具有类似强降水超级单体特征,可据此预报该雷暴中心经过区域可能有冰雹、大风等灾害性天气;风廓线产品在3-7km高度层内垂直风切变矢量具有顺时针旋转特点,有利于风暴发展成强风暴;风暴追踪信息基本能反映风暴移动路径的变化,其路径预报时效最长达1h,在雷暴初期预报准确率随雷暴数目增多、移动异向性明显而越低,在雷暴中后期则明显提高并对临近预报具有明显的指示性。     

用不稳定能量对稳定度的高分辨诊断作暴雨的分片预报

用稠密的地面观测资料参与计算空气绝热上升过程中释放的不稳定能量，提高对稳定度水平分布的分辨率。分析表明：不稳定能量的水平分布与暴雨落区有较好的关系，进而将这一方法用于暴雨分片预报。     

暴雨预报的一种能量分析法

利用1990～1996年6月逐日08h三层标准等压面的高度场及风场资料,分析了100～115°,20～35°N区域内6月份逐日的压能、湿焓场特征。结果表明,我区的暴雨与等压能线密集带及正湿焓平流区相关良好,在此基础上初步对我区的暴雨预报提出了一种能量分析方法。     

夏季南海台风移动路径的一种客观预报方法

以1960—2003年共44a夏季的7月、8月、9月西行进入南海海域的台风样本为基础,综合考虑南海台风移动路径的气候持续因子和数值预报产品物理量因子,运用条件数方法选取因子并建立回归方程,进行台风路径预报模型的预报建模研究。通过对比分析发现,基于条件数方法的南海台风移动路径模型具有较好的预报效果,7月、8月、9月3个月24h台风路径预报的平均距离误差为153．9km,预报能力明显高于目前国内外的其他一些台风路径客观预报方法。该方法的预报精度相对于逐步回归方法有了很大的提高,相对于气候持续法也为正的预报技巧水平。     

一种夏季大范围降水趋势分布的预报方法

综合考虑了影响夏季降水异常的大气、海洋因子和降水变化规律，提出了一种大范围降水异常分布的统计预报方法。用１９９１－１９９４年的独立资料检验，取得了满意效果。     

A method of forecasting severe squalls

Considered is the operational method of the automatic forecasting of severe squalls (in the gradations of 20–24 m/s and ≥25 m/s) implemented in the Hydrometcenter of Russia as well as the ways to improve it in order to reduce “false alarms.” The problem is solved by means of increasing the accuracy of forecasting surface humidity and taking additional account of the predictor of numerical identification of synoptic conditions favoring the formation of severe squalls. Presented are the examples of forecasts.     

Recent progress in the operational forecasting of summer severe weather

Abstract

Summer severe weather (SSW) can strike suddenly and unexpectedly with disastrous consequences for human activity. Considerable progress has been made in the past ten years in the operational forecasting of SSW. Traditionally, SSW was defined to consist of tornadoes, strong winds, hail, lightning and heavy rain. Hazardous types of strong winds have recently been expanded to include microbursts, macrobursts and surfacing rear inflow jet damage behind mesoscale convective systems. Doppler radar was used to relate surface damage to the appropriate atmospheric phenomena, first diagnostically and then prognostically. This improvement in classification has fedback to and improved the forecast process. Concurrent progress has been made in the use of synoptic observations. The concept of helical wind profiles and improved knowledge of the role of dry mid‐level air has improved the forecasting of tornadoes and strong gusty winds. Moisture flux convergence, derived from surface measurements, shows great promise in identifying areas of storm initiation. Satellite imagery has been used to identify dynamical atmospheric boundaries. Numerical modelling of the interaction of environmental wind profiles and individual thunderstorms has greatly contributed to the understanding of SSW. Studies of spatial and temporal patterns of lightning, both specific cases and climatology, contribute to the forecasting of severe storms. Polarization radar results have shown progress in separating the signals of hail from those of rain and in the improved measurement of heavy rainfalls. Radar observation of clear air boundaries and their interactions show potential for the forecasting of thunderstorm initiation. Though not traditionally considered part of SSW, hurricanes that evolve into extra‐tropical storms share many of the same hazardous features. The progress in computing, communications and display technologies has also made substantial contributions to operational forecasting and to the dissemination of weather warnings.     

我国强对流发生前的能量贮存机制

本文通过对1969—1979年我国27次大范围强对流天气的分析,发现其中只有不到30％的个例在强对流天气发生前存在低空逆温层.而从垂直运动计算和层结特征分析看,无论有或无逆温层,强对流出现前都有大范围系统性的下沉运动.由此可以认为大范围系统性的下沉运动是使强对流发生前位势不稳定能量贮存和积累的主要机制.而低空逆温层只是特定的下沉运动的产物,并依靠下沉运动而维持.同时指出这种下沉运动造成深厚的暖干气层,是发生龙卷、强雷暴大风等干性强对流天气所必须. 另外,对有低空逆温层的个例统计了各种特征量,并与美国的情况     

利用天气雷达判断强对流天气和作短时预报的一种客观方法

本文用逐步回归和逐步判别方法,以天气雷达回波参数和气象因子为预报因子,建立了判断强对流天气和作短时预报的方程,并对它们进行了分析讨论、比较和检验。结果表明,这是判断和预报强对流天气的一种有效方法,尤其是逐步判别法不仅能预报强对流天气的有无,还能预报其强度等级。     

Enhancement of the method of summer precipitation forecasting

The physical-synoptic principles of the automated method of summer precipitation forecasting introduced into operational prognostic practice in 2006 by the decree of the Central Methodical Commission of the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) are presented. Beside that, improved modifications of this method, which are automatically updated, are shown. Validation of those updates based on observational data collected in 2004 has shown improvement of all major criteria of forecasts efficiency. The performed improvement is based on the more detailed quantitative realization of mechanism of various showers formation (including heavy rainfalls).     

A high-resolution analysis method of instability energy

This paper describes a geopotential thickness difference method for computing instability energy E. EP1P2 =g0 ( ΔHsP1P2-ΔHP1P2 , where ΔHP1P2 is the geopotential thickness of P1-P2 level; ΔHsP1P2 is called adia-batic geopotential thickness, based on which a computational method for high resolution of instability energy is proposed. E(x,y)≈g0(A(x,y) - B(x,y)), where A is interpolating polynomial of ΔHSP2P2 and it is afunction ofθe, of surface observing stations (x, y); B(x,y) is the thickness over corresponding stations (x, y) obtained using surface fitting method. Therefore, data of METAR can be used by computer to produce hourly horizontal distribution chart of E of surface observing station density. With the result that the temporal and spatial resolution of stability analysis has been improved. Practical use has shown that this method is an effective tool for very short range forecast of severe convective storms.     

A radar-based verification of precipitation forecast for local convective storms

Local flash flood storms with a rapid hydrological response are a real challenge for quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). It is relevant to assess space domains, to which the QPF approaches are applicable. In this paper an attempt is made to evaluate the forecasting capability of a high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model by means of area-related QPF verification. The results presented concern two local convective events, which occurred in the Czech Republic (CR) on 13 and 15 July 2002 and caused local flash floods. We used the LM COSMO model (Lokall Model of the COSMO consortium) adapted to the horizontal resolution of 2.8 km over a model domain covering the CR. The 18 h forecast of convective precipitation was verified by using radar rainfall totals adjusted to the measured rain gauge data. The grid point-related root mean square error (RMSE) value was calculated over a square around the grid point under the assumption that rainfall values were randomly distributed within the square. The forecast accuracy was characterized by the mean RMSE over the whole verification domain. We attempt to show a dependence of both the RMSE field and the mean RMSE on the square size. The importance of a suitable merger between the radar and rain gauge datasets is demonstrated by a comparison between the verification results obtained with and without the gauge adjustment. The application of verification procedure demonstrates uncertainties in the precipitation forecasts. The model was integrated with initial conditions shifted by 0.5° distances. The four verifications, corresponding to the shifts in the four directions, show differences in the resulting QPF, which depend on the size of verification area and on the direction of the shift.     

玉米雌雄穗分化进程的预报方法

通过田间分期播种和人工气候箱的模拟试验,研究玉米发育与温度的关系,结果表明,展开叶片数的增加速率与日平均气温和展开叶片数之间存在曲线关系。以实测数据为基础,建立描述这种曲线关系的两个方程。因此,可以预报逐日的展开叶片数。应用展开叶片数与穗发育阶控之间的关系,就能做出雌堆穗分化进程的预报。     

湖南强风暴暖盖环境场研究

本文通过对湘中、湘北地区42次强风暴资料的分析,建立了一个强风暴环境场的天气学模式,着重讨论了暖盖(即对流层中下层的逆温层)的形成和维持机理. 暖盖是由于绕过青藏高原两侧的两支西风波动相互作用而产生的.它的存在有利于低空急流在其东部边缘的低空加强,而低空急流引起的垂直环流反过来又有利于暖盖的维持,当暖盖下降到低空急流轴附近时因受扰动而破坏,引起强风暴的发生.