Periodicities in blue crab population of Chesapeake Bay

Analysis of the annual blue crab catch in Chesapeake Bay for the years 1922–1976 shows that there are variations with periods of 18.0, 10.7, and 8.6 years. Analysis of Philadelphia air temperatures shows periods of 17.5, 9.8, and 7.4 years. The periods of 18.0 and 17.5 years agree with the 18.6 year period of the Earth-Moon-Sun tidal force, and the periods of 8.6 and 7.4 years agree with the 8.8 year period of the Earth-Moon-Sun tidal force, within experimental error. The periods of 9.8 and 10.7 years, for the temperatures and crabs, respectively, are probably related to the 10.5 year sunspot cycle within experimental error.     

大气折射率湍流结构系数C_n~2的观测试验

以美国ＮＯＡＡ波传播实验室估算大气折射率湍流结构系数的模式为基础，经过数值试验和观测对比调试，给出了一个得到我国雷达测值验证的实用的估算模式．     

大气折射率湍流结构系数C2n的观测试验

以美国NOAA波传播实验室估算大气折射率湍流结构系数的模式为基础，经过数值试验和观测对比调试，给出了一个得到我国雷达测值验证的实用的C2_n估算模式。     

An algorithm for generating stochastic cloud fields from radar profile statistics

An algorithm is described for generating stochastic three-dimensional (3D) cloud fields from time–height fields derived from vertically pointing radar. This model is designed to generate cloud fields that match the statistics of the input fields as closely as possible. The major assumptions of the algorithm are that the statistics of the fields are translationally invariant in the horizontal and independent of horizontal direction; however, the statistics do depend on height. The algorithm outputs 2D or 3D stochastic fields of liquid water content (LWC) and (optionally) effective radius. The algorithm is a generalization of the Fourier filtering methods often used for stochastic cloud models. The Fourier filtering procedure generates Gaussian stochastic fields from a “Gaussian” cross-correlation matrix, which is a function of a pair of heights and the horizontal distance (or “lag”). The Gaussian fields are nonlinearly transformed to give the correct LWC histogram for each height. The “Gaussian” cross-correlation matrix is specially chosen so that, after the nonlinear transformation, the cross-correlation matrix of the cloud mask fields approximately matches that derived from the input LWC fields. The cloud mask correlation function is chosen because the clear/cloud boundaries are thought to be important for 3D radiative transfer effects in cumulus.The stochastic cloud generation algorithm is tested with 3 months of boundary layer cumulus cloud data from an 8.6-mm wavelength radar on the island of Nauru. Winds from a 915-MHz wind profiler are used to convert the radar fields from time to horizontal distance. Tests are performed comparing the statistics of 744 radar-derived input fields to the statistics of 100 2D and 3D stochastic output fields. The single-point statistics as a function of height agree nearly perfectly. The input and stochastic cloud mask cross-correlation matrices agree fairly well. The cloud fractions agree to within 0.005 (the total cloud fraction is 18%). The cumulative distributions of optical depth, cloud thickness, cloud width, and intercloud gap length agree reasonably well. In the future, this stochastic cloud field generation algorithm will be used to study domain-averaged 3D radiative transfer effects in cumulus clouds.     

川东南小麦生育期间的水资源分析

本文考虑到不同温度条件下,积温对蒸发力影响的不等价效应,对谢良尼诺夫蒸发力计算方法进行了修改,计算了小麦各生育阶段的干燥度,分析结果与实际情况比较吻合。     

中央气象台探空资料客观分析业务系统的研究与实现

研发了基于Cressman线性插值方法的探空资料客观分析业务系统。针对客观分析在业务工作中的问题,提出几种解决方法：①提出了在观测场中找出可疑站点的检测算法,避免了可疑观测值对分析场的影响;②通过对分析的等值线进行后处理操作,做到分析结果与观测数据一致,不增加或者漏掉高低值中心;③提出了对分析场进行自适应平滑处理的方法,即保留了小面积高低值中心,又提高了等值线的光滑与美观程度。试验结果显示：使用该方法得到的探空资料客观分析结果与观测数据较一致,在等值线的光滑程度上接近预报员的手工分析结果,从而证明了本文所提方法的可行性和有效性。     

Turbulent Statistics of Neutrally Stratified Flow Within and Above a Sparse Forest from Large-Eddy Simulation and Field Observations

Turbulent statistics of neutrally stratified shear-driven flow within and above a sparse forest canopy are presented from a large-eddy simulation (LES) and compared with those from observations within and above a deciduous forest with similar height and foliage density. First- and second-order moments from the LES agree with observations quite well. Third-order moments from the LES have the same sign and similar vertical patterns as those from the observations, but the LES yields smaller magnitudes of such higher-order moments. Turbulent spectra and cospectra from the LES agree well with observations above the forest. However, at the highest frequencies, the LES spectra have steeper slopes than observations. Quadrant and conditional analyses of the LES resolved-scale flow fields also agree with observations. For example, both LES and observation find that sweeps are more important than ejections for the transport of momentum within the forest, while inward and outward interaction contributions are both small, except near the forest floor. The intermittency of the transport of momentum and scalar increases with depth into the forest. Finally, ramp structures in the time series of a passive scalar at multiple levels within and above the forest show similar features to those measured from field towers. Two-dimensional (height-time cross-section) contours of the passive scalar and wind vectors show sweeps and ejections, and the characteristics of the static pressure perturbation near the ground resemble those deduced from field tower-based measurements. In spite of the limited grid resolution (2 m × 2 m × 2 m) and domain size (192 m × 192 m × 60 m) used in this LES, we demonstrate that the LES is capable of resolving the most important characteristics of the turbulent flow within and above a forest canopy.     

Mean climatic characteristics in high northern latitudes in an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model

Emphasizing the model‘s ability in mean climate reproduction in high northern latitudes, resultsfrom an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model are analyzed. It is shown that the coupled model cansimulate the main characteristics of annual mean global sea surface temperature and sea level pressurewell, but the extent of ice coverage produced in the Southern Hemisphere is not large enough. The maindistribution characteristics of simulated sea level pressure and temperature at 850 hPa in high northernlatitudes agree well with their counterparts in the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the model can reproducethe Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode successfully. The simulated seasonal variation of sea ice in the NorthernHemisphere is rational and its main distribution features in winter agree well with those from observations.But the ice concentration in the sea ice edge area close to the Eurasian continent in the inner Arctic Oceanis much larger than the observation. There are significant interannual variation signals in the simulated seaice concentration in winter in high northern latitudes and the most significant area lies in the GreenlandSea, followed by the Barents Sea. All of these features agree well with the results from observations.     

Measurements of the rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy, ɛ, over the ocean

In a series of cruises during the last three years, the Naval Postgraduate School Environmental Physics Group has made more than 1000 shipboard measurements of the rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy, , using inertial subrange (high frequency) techniques. Utilizing the bulk-aerodynamic method to obtain the relevant Monin-Obukhov surface layer scaling parameters, the overwater dimensionless dissipation function 321-01, has been examined with unprecedented statistical certainty. The results agree well with those of Wyngaard and Coté (1971) for the stable case but they agree more closely with the parameterization of McBean and Elliott (1975) for unstable conditions. Drag coefficients computed from the data are in good agreement with the curve given by Garratt (1977).     

Numerical simulation of a stable planetary boundary layer over the Argentine continental shelf

A two-dimensional planetary boundary-layer model is employed to simulate numerically observed temperature and humidity profiles of an airflow over the Argentine continental shelf. Predicted profiles satisfactorily agree with observed ones which are characterized by a stable boundary layer.     

NINO晶体的电子自旋共振

报道了 Ｎ Ｉ Ｎ Ｏ 晶体在 Ｔ＝ １．５ Ｋ 温度和 １０１ Ｇ Ｈｚ 频率下的电子自旋共振（ Ｅ Ｓ Ｒ）实验。建立了ｄ８ 离子基态３ Ａ２ （ Ｆ）自旋哈密顿参量 Ｄ、 Ｅ 和ｇ 因子与斜方对称晶场势参量间的关系,并对 Ｎ Ｉ Ｎ Ｏ 晶体进行了计算。所得结果与实验一致,表明所给关系式是合理的。     

Prediction of downward flux of atmospheric radiation from clear skies

At present, there are two approaches to the prediction of downward flux of atmospheric radiation at the earth's surface. One can use either empirical correlations or radiation charts. The empirical correlations, being very elementary, do not always agree with observations made under different conditions. The radiation charts on the other hand require detailed knowledge of temperature and water vapour profiles. In the present paper, a semi-empirical approach is advocated. The emissivity of water vapour measured in the laboratory is used to predict the atmospheric downward radiation. Since the laboratory data are based on a homogeneous atmosphere, suitable pressure scaling is employed to take into account the non-homogeneity in the earth's atmosphere. The atmospheric downward radiation is obtained as a function of local temperature, water vapour scale height, and temperature lapse rate. It is shown that the resulting predictions agree somewhat better with observations than do the predictions based on empirical correlations.     

山区夜间边界层的数值模拟

本文采用二维数值模式模拟了一个坡地上夜间边界层的发展过程。所得到的结果与1974—1976年在北京北部山区得到的观测资料做了比较。模拟出的夜间辐射逆温层的厚度和形状以及下坡风的廊线都与观测事实大致相符。模式进一步改进后似可做为解决中、小尺度复杂地形上夜间边界层演变的工具。     

Towards the problem of the ratio between suspended and bed load discharges in a river flow

The review ofthe main methods for the estimation ofthe ratio between suspended and bed load discharges is presented. The estimates of discharge ratio are given for the Laba River. The contribution of bed load discharge to the total load discharge is computed for each phase of water regime. The obtained results of computations fully agree with the data of observations in the watercourse.     

A marked mesoscale pressure-induced wind variation

Garratt and Physick (1983) presented observations which show a strong correlation between low-level wind behaviour and the passage of mesoscale pressure systems. They numerically simulated the wind observations by specifying a time sequence of perturbation pressure gradients and then solving the vertically integrated momentum equation. Here a similar procedure was used for computing the low-level wind field associated with the passage of a squall line over Lake Huron on August 22, 1971. The results from the numerical model agree reasonably well with observations.     

Comment on “Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change” by Troccoli et al.

Troccoli et al. (Climatic Change, published online 14th May, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x), analysed different projections from global climate models in order to assess the frequency of storm surges in Venice during the 21st century under a climate change context. They concluded that the frequency of storm surges would decrease by about 30%, and that this reduction would compensate the expected mean sea level rise. Their final statement was that “the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered”. Although we agree in the expected reduction of storm surges, we strongly disagree in their final conclusion. First, because the impact of storm surges not only depends on the number of extreme surge events, but also on their intensity, that was not explicitely addressed. Second, because their estimates of mean sea level change for the 21st century are largely underestimated, as they miss some of the components driving sea level variability. Using state-of-the-art estimates for the thermosteric, mass and tidal contributions we show that the flooding events in Venice are expected to dramatically increase in a climate change scenario.     

Stability dependence of fluxes and bulk transfer coefficients in a tropical boundary layer

Turbulence data obtained aboard a NOAA P-3 research aircraft during flights over the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean are used to obtain mean vertical profiles of water vapor density, potential temperature, wind speed and fluxes of latent heat, buoyancy and momentum. The variation of eddy fluxes and bulk transfer coefficients as a function of atmospheric stability are plotted for two of the flights. The observed transfer coefficients generally agree with those obtained from parameterizations based on surface-layer similarity theory (Deardorff, 1968; Kondo, 1975).     

Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Modelled and observed variability in atmospheric vertical temperature structure

Realistic simulation of the internal variability of the climate system is important both for climate change detection and as an indicator of whether the physics of the climate system is well-represented in a climate model. In this work zonal mean atmospheric temperatures from a control run of the second Hadley Centre coupled GCM are compared with gridded radiosonde observations for the past 38 years to examine how well modelled and observed variability agree. On time scales of between six months and twenty years, simulated and observed variability of global mean temperatures agree well for the troposphere, but in the equatorial stratosphere variability is lower in the model than in the observations, particularly at periods of two years and seven to twenty years. We find good agreement between modelled and observed variability in the mass-weighted amplitude of a forcing-response pattern, as used for climate change detection, but variability in a signal-to-noise optimised fingerprint pattern is significantly greater in the observations than in a model control run. This discrepancy is marginally consistent with anthropogenic forcing, but more clearly explained by a combination of solar and volcanic forcing, suggesting these should be considered in future `vertical detection' studies. When the relationship between tropical lapse rate and mean temperature was examined, it was found that these quantities are unrealistically coherent in the model at periods above three years. However, there is a clear negative lapse rate feedback in both model and observations: as the tropical troposphere warms, the mid-tropospheric lapse rate decreases on all the time scales considered. Received: 11 August 1998 / Accepted: 20 July 1999