基于误差分布估计的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法

准确、及时的入库洪水预报,对三峡水库综合效益的发挥和长江流域水旱灾害防御、水资源利用、流域综合管理等具有重要作用。基于预报误差的最优分布估计和分布函数动态参数假定,提出了一种三峡水库入库洪水概率预报方法,并进行了洪水概率预报业务试验。结果表明:本文所提方法科学可行,计算快捷,使用方便,便于在实时作业预报中应用推广;概率预报结果较确定性预报结果,在水量预报、预警效果等方面均有所改善,1～5 d预见期预报的确定性系数提高0.1%～3.4%,水量误差减少0.1%～4.8%,可为三峡水库实时调度提供更可靠的预报信息;所提出的三峡水库入库洪水概率预报业务化产品,可提供更多风险信息,为三峡水库的科学调度,尤其是洪水资源化利用提供更好的优化决策支撑。     

Groundwater Storage Change in the Jinsha River Basin from GRACE,Hydrologic Models,and In Situ Data

Groundwater plays a major role in the hydrological processes driven by climate change and human activities, particularly in upper mountainous basins. The Jinsha River Basin (JRB) is the uppermost region of the Yangtze River and the largest hydropower production region in China. With the construction of artificial cascade reservoirs increasing in this region, the annual and seasonal flows are changing and affecting the water cycles. Here, we first infer the groundwater storage changes (GWSC), accounting for sediment transport in JRB, by combining the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment mission, hydrologic models and in situ data. The results indicate: (1) the average estimation of the GWSC trend, accounting for sediment transport in JRB, is 0.76 ± 0.10 cm/year during the period 2003 to 2015, and the contribution of sediment transport accounts for 15%; (2) precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture change, GWSC, and land water storage changes (LWSC) show clear seasonal cycles; the interannual trends of LWSC and GWSC increase, but P, runoff (R), surface water storage change and SMC decrease, and ET remains basically unchanged; (3) the main contributor to the increase in LWSC in JRB is GWSC, and the increased GWSC may be dominated by human activities, such as cascade damming and climate variations (such as snow and glacier melt due to increased temperatures). This study can provide valuable information regarding JRB in China for understanding GWSC patterns and exploring their implications for regional water management.     

Analysis of the sediment sources of flood driven erosion and deposition in the river channel of the Fu River Basin

Studying the characteristics of runoff and sediment processes and revealing the sources of sediment provide key guidance for the scientific formulation of relevant soil erosion protection measures and water conservancy development plans. In the current study, the flow and sediment data of five hydrological stations on the main stream of the Fu River Basin (FRB) from 2007 to 2018 were selected to identify flood events, explore the variation of sediment transport along the FRB, and clarify the sediment sources. The results found that the Jiangyou–Fujiangqiao section is the main source of sediment in the FRB during the flood season. The runoff volume and sediment load during flood events in the Jiangyou–Fujiangqiao section accounted for 35% and 145% respectively of that of Xiaoheba station. These results combined with the change of the sediment load before and after the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake (May 12) show that the sediment in this section mainly comes from the Fu River tributary–the Tongkou River watershed. The calculation results for the sediment carrying capacity of the Fu River show that the main stream was in a state of erosion in theory. However, according to the calculation results for the interval sediment yield during flood events, the sediment load at the Xiaoheba station was smaller than that at the Shehong station upstream. The analysis indicates that this was not because of sediment deposition in the river channel, but because of sand mining in the river channel and sediment interception by water conservancy projects. If heavy rainfall occurs in the FRB, the sediment accumulated upstream will move downstream with the resulting flood, and the sediment yield in the FRB may further increase. These research conclusions can provide reference information for improving the prediction and management ability of soil and water loss in the FRB and scientific regulation of the Three Gorges Reservoir.     

Influence of Three Gorges Dam on streamflow and sediment load of the middle Yangtze River, China

Using updated hydrological datasets from three stations, including Cuntan, Yichang and Hankou, covering the period of January 1992–December 2008, the influence of Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on streamflow and sediment load of the Yangtze River was investigated. Results indicated that TGD did not seem to exert a significant influence on streamflow occurring at three stations and changes in streamflow can be mainly attributed to streamflows of tributaries. However, a sharp decrease in the sediment load after the impoundment of TGD was observed. Clear water after the impoundment caused erosion of riverbed and resulted in more sediment at the Hankou station than at the Yichang station. No distinct changes in the annual and monthly maximum sediment loads were observed before and after the impoundment. Therefore, annual and monthly maximum sediment load changes should be subjected mainly to river hydraulics. This study has practical relevance for understanding the influence of large hydraulic structures on the hydrological processes of large rivers.     

Analyses of trends and causes for variations in runoff and sediment load of the Yellow River

Due to the impacts of globe climate change and human activities, dramatic variations in runoff and sediment load were observed for the Yellow River. Analyses of nearly 65 years' data measured at main hydrologic-stations on the Yellow River from 1950 to 2014 indicated that, except for the Tangnaihai station in the head region, sharp downward trends existed in both the annual runoff and annual sedi-ment load according to the Mann–Kendal trend test;and their abrupt changes occurred in 1986 and in 1980, respectively, according to the rank sum test. Factors affecting the changes in the runoff and sediment load were very complicated. Results indicated that the reducing precipitation and the increasing water consumption were the main causes for the runoff decline, while the impoundment of the Longyangxia Reservoir and its combined operation with the Liujiaxia Reservoir exerted a direct bearing on the abrupt change in the annual runoff. In addition to the sediment load decrease associated with the runoff reduction, the reduced storm intensity, the conducted soil erosion control, and the constructed dam buildings all played an important role in the trends and abrupt changes of sediment load decline.     

金沙江下游梯级水库泥沙淤积和坝下河道冲刷规律

金沙江下游4个梯级水电站总装机容量相当于两座三峡水库,是“西电东送”中部地区的源头工程,工程效益发挥对经济社会发展意义重大。2012年以来,向家坝、溪洛渡、乌东德和白鹤滩电站等陆续蓄水运行,层层拦截金沙江的泥沙,2013—2020年向家坝出库年输沙量均值下降至152万t,减幅超过99%。大量泥沙淤积在梯级水库内,同时向家坝以下河道发生长距离冲刷。本文以自金沙江下游工程筹建以来的观测资料为基础,针对梯级水库的泥沙淤积和坝下游河道冲刷规律开展研究,结果表明:金沙江下游四个梯级电站自建成运行至2020年底,累计淤积泥沙约5.98亿m³,其中溪洛渡库区淤积量占比达92.5%,2013-2020年溪洛渡和向家坝水库排沙比分别为2.64%和22.2%,其水库泥沙主要淤积在常年回水区的干流河道内,以死库容内淤积为主,侵占有效库容的比例小于1.3%。金沙江下游库区干流河道的峡谷特征明显,淤积多表现为主河槽的平铺式淤高。溪洛渡和向家坝库区淤积的泥沙沿程分选特征明显,越靠近坝前,中数粒径减小、细颗粒泥沙沙量百分数增加,极细颗粒泥沙会在库区一定范围内大量沉积。向家坝下游河床普遍冲刷,但...     

ANALYSIS OF SOIL EROSION CHARACTERISTICS AND SEDIMENT SOURCES FOR THE YANTZE THREE GORGES REGION

In this paper the researches made in 1981-1990 have identified that the annual soil loss in the Three Gorges region is 157 million t. and the annual incoming sediment load of the Three Gorges reservoir is 40 million t. Soil erosion increases with the destruction of vegetative cover and its subsequent evolution. The annual amounts of sediment erosion for forest land, shrub land, grassland and farmland make up respectively 6.19%, 10.76%, 23.05% and 60% of the total erosion of the Three Gorges region; the quantities of incoming sediment load to the Yangtze River from the above four types of land account for 5.95%, 12.42%, 35.46% and 46.1 % of the total amount of sediment transported to the reservoir. The farmland of offers the main source of sediment. Gravitational erosion produces more bed loads, which will present serious threat to the Three Gorges Project if entering the reservoir. Resettlement of people to the upper parts of the mountainous areas for agricultural production will increase the sediment yield of the Three Gorges region by 10-20 million t and increase the incoming sediment of the Yangtze River by 50-60 million t. Consequently, it is necessary to make a realistic assessment of the soil erosion in the Three Gorges region.     

Modeling the effect of artificial flow and sediment flux on the environment and plankton of an estuary

Estuarine environments are influenced by both river flows and oceanic tidal movement of water, sediment, and nutrients, often forming ecosystems that are rich in resources and biodiversity. The Yellow River once carried the world’s largest sediment load, but artificial structures have transformed its hydrodynamic processes. An annual Water-Sediment Regulation Scheme(WSRS) was introduced to flush accumulated sediment from the Xiaolangdi Reservoir, which provides flood control and water storage.Ho...     

One-dimensional numerical simulation of non-uniform sediment transport under unsteady flows

One-dimensional numerical models are popularly used in sediment transport research because they can be easily programmed and cost less time compared with two- and three-dimensional numerical models. In particular, they possess greater capacity to be applied in large river basins with many tributaries. This paper presents a one-dimensional numerical model capable of calculating total-load sediment transport. The cross-section-averaged sediment transport capacity and recovery coefficient are addressed in the suspended load model. This one-dimensional model, therefore, can be applied to fine suspended loads and to hyperconcentrated flows in the Yellow River. Moreover, a new discretization scheme for the equation of unsteady non-uniform suspended sediment transport is proposed. The model is calibrated using data measured from the Yantan Reservoir on the Hongshui River and the Sanmenxia Reservoir on the Yellow River. A comparison of the calculated water level and river bed deformation with field measurements Shows that the improved numerical model is capable of predicting flow, sediment transport, bed changes, and bed-material sorting in various situations, with reasonable accuracy and reliability.     

The influence of parameter distribution uncertainty on hydrological and sediment modeling: a case study of SWAT model applied to the Daning watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

Parameter uncertainty involved in hydrological and sediment modeling often refers to the parameter dispersion and the sensitivity of the parameter. However, a limitation of the previous studies lies in that the assignment of range and specification of probability distribution for each parameter is usually difficult and subjective. Therefore, there is great uncertainty in the process of parameter calibration and model prediction. In this study, the impact of probability parameter distribution on hydrological and sediment modeling was evaluated using a semi-distributed model—the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Monte Carlo method (MC)—in the Daning River watershed of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRA), China. The classic types of parameter distribution such as uniform, normal and logarithmic normal distribution were involved in this study. Based on results, parameter probability distribution showed a diverse degree of influence on the hydrological and sediment prediction, such as the sampling size, the width of 95% confidence interval (CI), the ranking of the parameter related to uncertainty, as well as the sensitivity of the parameter on model output. It can be further inferred that model parameters presented greater uncertainty in certain regions of the primitive parameter range and parameter samples densely obtained from these regions would lead to a wider 95 CI, resulting in a more doubtful prediction. This study suggested the value of the optimized value obtained by the parameter calibration process could may also be of vital importance in selecting the probability distribution function (PDF). Such cases, where parameter value corresponds to the watershed characteristic, can be used to provide a more credible distribution for both hydrological and sediment modeling.     

Characteristics and influencing factors of sediment deposition-scour in the Sanhuhekou-Toudaoguai Reach of the upper Yellow River,China

The annual changes of sediment deposition-scour on the riverbed in the Sanhuhekou-Toudaoguai Reach of the upper Yellow River during the years 1952-2010 were investigated based on runoff and sediment transport observations from the Sanhuhekou and Toudaoguai hydrological stations. Multiple influencing factors such as reservoir operations, tributary inflows, as well as runoff and sediment loads from the Shidakongdui area were analyzed. The results show that even though the sediment loads from the major sources, the Shidakongdui area as well as the upstream tributaries such as the Qingshui River and the Zuli River have reduced especially since the 2000 s as a result of enhanced water-soil conservation measures and improvement of vegetation cover, the study reach was still generally in a status of cumulative aggradation. This is mainly due to the joint operations of the Liujiaxia Reservoir and the Longyangxia Reservoir, which significantly reduced the annual runoff and sediment loads at the Sanhuhekou Crosssection. The reservoirs also remarkably altered the summer flood characteristics of the study reach, inducing the shape of the annual flow curve changing from a 'single-peak' into a 'doublepeak'. These alternations sharply decreased the sediment transport capacity of flooding in the summer flood season which yields more than 90% of the sediment loads, leading to an unbalanced relation between the water and sediment. In addition, the estimated incoming sediment coefficient of the Sanhuhekou Crosssection ranged from 0.003 to 0.014 kg s/m~6, of which 0.004 kg s/m~6 was suggested as a rough critical value to determine the scour or deposition status of the study reach.     

2D NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF FLOOD AND FLUVIAL PROCESS IN THE MEANDERING AND ISLAND-BRAIDED MIDDLE YANGTZE RIVER

The characteristics of water flow and sediment transport in a typical meandering and island-braided reach of the middle Yangtze River is investigated using a two-dimensional （2D） mathematical model. The major problems studied in the paper include the carrying capacity for suspended load, the incipient velocity and transport formula of non-uniform sediment, the thickness of the mixed layer on the riverbed, and the partitioning of bed load and suspended load. The model parameters are calibrated using extensive field data. Water surface profiles, distribution of flow velocities, riverbed deformation are verified with site measurements. The model is applied to a meandering and island-braided section of the Wakouzi-Majiazui reach in the middle Yangtze River, which is about 200 km downstream from the Three Gorges Dam, to study the training scheme of the navigation channels. The model predicts the processes of sediment deposition and fiver bed erosion, changes of flow stage and navigation conditions for the first 20 years of impoundment of the Three Gorges Project.     

三峡水库蓄水后库区水沙变化及其生态环境响应特征

三峡水库举世瞩目,是长江保护与治理的关键性枢纽工程,水库自2003年蓄水运行后库区水沙条件均发生了显著改变,对库区水生态环境产生了深远影响。本文系统综述了三峡水库蓄水运行后库区的水流动力特性和泥沙淤积特性,总结了蓄水后水库的新水沙运动情况;从水库蓄水运行后水质参数特征,营养物质、重金属和典型有毒有机污染物的赋存特征等方面,分析了三峡水库库区新水沙变化条件下的水环境响应特征;基于水库蓄水前后浮游植物、底栖动物等重点生物群落的现存量和群落特征变化规律,探索了三峡水库新水沙变化条件下库区的水生态响应特征;最后对未来三峡水库运行下的水生态环境效应研究提出展望,本文可为三峡水库水生态环境保护科学研究和管理提供新的认识和决策参考。     

Sediment transferring function of the lower reaches of the Yellow River influenced by drainage basin factors and human activities

Since 1986, with a sharp decrease in water dis-charges, the Yellow River has entered a period charac-terized by low discharges and seasonally occurring dry-ups[1,2]. Since 1999, more strict management of water diversion has been imposed, and therefore the dry-ups have been well under control. However, the lower reaches of the Yellow River is still predominated by low-discharges, and has become a man-induced shrinking river. In the past 40 years, significant effect of soil and water conservat…     

Variations in runoff,sediment load,and their relationship for a major sediment source area of the Jialing River basin,southern China

Investigation of the variations in runoff, sediment load, and their dynamic relation is conducive to understanding hydrological regime changes and supporting channel regulation and fluvial management. This study is undertaken in the Xihanshui catchment, which is known for its high sediment-laden in the Jialing River of the Yangtze River basin, southern China, to evaluate the change characteristics of runoff, sediment load, and their relationship at multi-temporal scales from 1966 to 2016. The results showed that runoff changed significantly for more months, whereas the significant changes in monthly sediment load occurred from April to September. The contributions of runoff in summer and autumn and sediment load in summer to their annual value changes were greater. Annual runoff and sediment load in the Xihanshui catchment both exhibited significant decreasing trends (p < 0.05) with a significant mutation in 1993 (p < 0.05). The average annual runoff in the change period (1994–2016) decreased by 49.58% and annual sediment load displayed a substantial decline with a reduction of 77.77% in comparison with the reference period (1966–1993) due to climate change and intensive human activity. The power functions were satisfactory to describe annual and extreme monthly runoff–sediment relationships, whereas the monthly runoff–sediment relationship and extreme monthly sediment-runoff relationship were changeable. Spatially, annual runoff–sediment relationship alteration could be partly attributed to sediment load changes in the upstream area and runoff variations in the downstream region. Three quantitative methods revealed that the main driver for significant reductions of annual runoff and sediment load is the human activity dominated by soil and water conservation measures, while climate change only contributed 22.73%–38.99% (mean 32.07%) to the total runoff reduction and 3.39%–35.56% (mean 17.32%) to the total decrease in sediment load.     

三峡水库175 m试验性蓄水期调度运行对洞庭湖蓄水量变化的影响

长江干流与洞庭湖存在复杂的并联型分汇关系,当三峡水库调度改变长江径流过程时,会引起洞庭湖年内槽蓄量的变化,对于洞庭湖地区防洪、水资源配置和水环境保护产生显著的影响.本文建立了枝城至螺山站的荆江-洞庭湖水流模型,利用2008-2017年的三峡水库实际调度日数据,分析有、无三峡水库调度两种情况下洞庭湖槽蓄量的变化过程,同时利用建库前和近期的水位流量关系反映河道过流能力,分析了河道调整的影响.结果表明:由河道调整引起的槽蓄量变化在汛前消落期、汛期、汛末蓄水期和枯水期分别为-3.06%、0.12%、-0.01%和-13.31%.有三峡水库影响情况下,汛前消落期由于荆江"三口"进入洞庭湖的多年平均总径流增加23.94%,洞庭湖出口处城陵矶多年平均水位升高0.53 m,阻碍了洞庭湖出流,洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量增长13.30%;汛期由于荆江"三口"分流量减少3.54%,城陵矶水位降低0.02 m导致出湖流量增多,因此洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量减少0.20%;在汛末蓄水期,荆江"三口"分入洞庭湖的多年平均总径流量减少37.18%,城陵矶多年平均水位降低1.33 m,导致出湖流量增多,因而洞庭湖多年平均槽蓄量减少27.74%;在枯水期,荆江"三口"多年平均总径流量增加5.61%,城陵矶多年平均水位上升0.07 m,最终洞庭湖多年平均枯期槽蓄量增加2.96%.     

白格堰塞湖对金沙江水沙及梯级水库运行的影响

2018年金沙江上游白格滑坡造成了近百年来最为严重的干流堵江事件,堰塞湖的形成和溃决给下游金沙江干流河道的水沙条件及梯级水电站运行造成影响.本文依据堰塞湖附近临时观测和金沙江干流河道控制性水文站的相关资料,研究堰塞体泄流对下游河道水沙输移的影响,同时结合梯级水库调度情况,计算了梯级水库的拦沙量.结果表明,堰塞湖溃决在金沙江中游形成了超历史的水沙过程,金沙江中游梯级电站开展应急调度后,堰塞湖溃决造成的特大洪水被削减为一般洪水.金沙江中游梯级梨园、阿海和金安桥电站累积拦截泥沙约1400万t,龙开口、鲁地拉和观音岩电站共计拦截泥沙约43万t,滑坡体产生的泥沙仍有约74%滞留在堰塞体附近.若滑坡体泥沙全部输移至金沙江中游梯级水库内,梨园电站的有效库容极有可能不满足水库所需调节库容的要求.     

The distribution and residence time of suspended sediment stored within the channel margins of a gravel‐bed bedrock river

Previously undocumented deposits are described that store suspended sediment in gravel‐bedded rivers, termed ‘fine‐grained channel margin’ (FGCM) deposits. FGCM deposits consist of sand, silt, clay, and organic matter that accumulate behind large woody debris (LWD) along the margins of the wetted perimeter of the single‐thread, gravel‐bed South River in Virginia. These deposits store a total mass equivalent to 17% to 43% of the annual suspended sediment load. Radiocarbon, ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷C dating indicate that sediment in FGCM deposits ranges in age from 1 to more than 60 years. Reservoir theory suggests an average turnover time of 1·75 years and an annual exchange with the water column of a mass of sediment equivalent to 10% to 25% of the annual sediment load. The distribution of ages in the deposits can be fitted by a power function, suggesting that sediment stored in the deposits has a wide variety of transit times. Most sediment in storage is reworked quickly, but a small portion may remain in place for many decades. The presence of FGCM deposits indicates that suspended sediment is not simply transported downstream in gravel‐bed rivers in agricultural watersheds: significant storage can occur over decadal timescales. South River has a history of mercury contamination and identifying sediment sources and sinks is critical for documenting the extent of contamination and for developing remediation plans. FGCM deposits should be considered in future sediment budget and sediment transport modeling studies of gravel‐bed rivers in agricultural watersheds. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

FLUVIAL PROCESSES IN THE LOWER JINGJIANG RIVER：IMPACT OF THE THREE GORGES RESERVOIR IMPOUNDMENT

Sediment supply to the lower Jingjiang River will be subject to substantial reduction after the impoundment of the Three Gorges Reservoir, which could result in an excess of carrying capacity and serious bank erosions in the downstream alluvial channel, threatening the bank protection works and the safety of the Jingjiang Dyke. This paper presents a summary of research works concerning the fluvial processes in the lower Jingjiang River and the possible impact of the Three Gorges Reservoir impoundment on the variation of its channel pattern. Three different predictions have been put forward by researchers: 1) the Jingjiang River will evolve towards a more sinuous, meandering channel pattern, with extensive bank erosion taking place along the river; 2) the river channel will be straightened and broadened because no point bar can be formed due to reduced sediment supply while bank erosion develops in the concave bank, and 3) this river reach will maintain its present channel pattern without significant change, although the sinuosity may be slightly reduced, since: a) the Three Gorges Reservoir mainly intercept sediment particles with sizes larger than 0.025mm, and b) the complex interaction between the Yangtze River and the Dongting Lake helps to reduce the negative effect of channel erosion through certain self-adjusting mechanism in fluvial processes. Discrepancy between these predictions shows that further research efforts are needed to understand the impact of Three Gorges Reservoir operation on the downstream fluvial processes. Meanwhile, there is an urgent need to closely monitor future development in the fluvial processes of the Jingjiang River and its influence on the safety of the Jingjiang Dykes.     

Seasonal and annual maximum streamflow forecasting using climate information: application to the Three Gorges Dam in the Yangtze River basin,China / Prévision d'écoulements saisonnier et maximum annuel à l'aide d'informations climatiques: application au Barrage des Trois Gorges dans le bassin du Fleuve Yangtze,Chine

Abstract

This paper explores the potential for seasonal prediction of hydrological variables that are potentially useful for reservoir operation of the Three Gorges Dam, China. The seasonal flow of the primary inflow season and the peak annual flow are investigated at Yichang hydrological station, a proxy for inflows to the Three Gorges Dam. Building on literature and diagnostic results, a prediction model is constructed using sea-surface temperatures and upland snow cover available one season ahead of the prediction period. A hierarchical Bayesian approach is used to estimate uncertainty in the parameters of the prediction model and to propagate these uncertainties to the predictand. The results show skill for both the seasonal flow and the peak annual flow. The peak annual flow model is then used to estimate a design flood (50-year flood or 2% exceedence probability) on a year-to-year basis. The results demonstrate the inter-annual variability in flood risk. The predictability of both the seasonal total inflow and the peak annual flow (or a design flood volume) offers potential for adaptive management of the Three Gorges Dam reservoir through modification of the operating policy in accordance with the year-to-year changes in these variables.