The tidal and wind induced hydrodynamics of the composite system Adriatic Sea/Lagoon of Venice

A shallow water hydrostatic 2D hydrodynamic numerical model, based on the boundary conforming coordinate system, was used to simulate aspects of both general and small scale oceanic features occurring in the composite system constituted by the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice (Italy), under the influence of tide and realistic atmospheric forcing. Due to a specific technique for the treatment of movable lateral boundaries, the model is able to simulate efficiently dry up and flooding processes within the lagoon. Firstly, a model calibration was performed by comparing the results of the model, forced using tides and ECMWF atmospheric pressure and wind fields, with observations collected for a set of 33 mareographic stations uniformly distributed in the Adriatic Sea and in the Lagoon of Venice. A second numerical experiment was then carried out by considering only the tidal forcing. Through a comparison between the results obtained in the two experiments it was possible to assess the reliability of the estimated parameter through the composite forcing. Model results were then verified by comparing simulated amplitude and phase of each tidal constituent as well as tidal velocities simulated at the inlets of the lagoon and in the Northern Adriatic Sea with the corresponding observed values. The model accurately reproduces the observed harmonics: mean amplitude differences rarely exceed 1 cm, while phase errors are commonly confined below 15°. Semidiurnal and diurnal currents were correctly reproduced in the northern basin and a good agreement was obtained with measurements carried out at the lagoon inlets. On this basis, the outcomes of the hydrodynamic model were analyzed in order to investigate: (i) small-scale coastal circulation features observed at the interface between the adjoining basins, which consist often of vortical dipoles connected with the tidal flow of Adriatic water entering and leaving the Lagoon of Venice and with along-shore current fields connected with specific wind patterns; (ii) residual oscillations, which are often connected to meteorological forcing over the basin. In particular, it emerges that small-scale vortical features generated near the lagoon inlet can be efficiently transported toward the open sea, thus contributing to the water exchange between the two marine regions, and a realistic representation of observed residual oscillations in the area would require a very detailed knowledge of atmospheric as well as remote oceanic forcing.     

Modelling fluxes of water and sediment between Venice Lagoon and the sea

To describe the exchange of water and sediment through the Venice Lagoon inlets a 3-D hydrodynamic and sediment transport model has been developed and applied to a domain comprising Venice Lagoon and a part of the Adriatic Sea. The model has been validated for both current velocities and suspended particle concentration against direct observations and from observations empirically derived fluxes from upward-looking acoustic Doppler current profiler probes installed inside each inlet. The model provides estimates of the suspended sediment transport in the lower 3 m of the water column that is not detected by acoustic Doppler current profiler sensors. The bedload model prediction has been validated against measured sand transport rates collected by sand traps deployed in the Lido and Chioggia inlets. Results indicate that, in the Lido inlet, 87% of the total load is in suspension, while the rest moves as bedload.     

Hydrodynamic coastal processes in the North Adriatic investigated with a 3D finite element model

This paper deals with the interaction and small-scale processes occurring around the inlets that connect the Venice Lagoon with the Northern Adriatic Sea. In a previous paper, barotropic processes have been investigated, whereas here, the focus is on the baroclinic processes. The hydrodynamics of the area are studied by means of a 3D shallow water hydrodynamic finite-element model, suitable to describe areas of complex morphology such as the coasts and the interaction channels. This is the first work that models the 3D interaction between the Venice Lagoon and the Adriatic Sea. Three different sets of simulations have been carried out to identify the physics behind the small-scale processes and the influence of the main forcings on the study area. The first imposes different idealized forcings, such as tides, wind, and river runoff. The vorticity maps of the first two layers show the predominance of wind forcing in the coastal area and tidal forcing in the three inlets of the Lagoon. Bora wind acts homogeneously, increasing the littoral currents, while Sirocco wind mainly impacts near Chioggia inlet, with a coastal current reversal, inducing its detachment offshore. Freshwater patterns are present along the coast, near the river mouths. Rivers do not directly influence the circulation close to the coast in front of the Venice Lagoon, except for the area near Chioggia inlet, where the Brenta river action can be seen. The second set of simulations deals with a sensitivity analysis to define the importance of the advection and of the baroclinic pressure gradient terms in the creation of persistent structures, such as small-scale coastal vortices seen along the littoral very close to the inlets. This analysis shows how advection is the main physical process responsible for the persistence of the positive vorticity structures close to the coast between the inlets, while the negative vorticity structures, also seen by the HF Radar, are due to the baroclinic-advective interaction. Finally, a real case, year 2004, has been simulated both to validate the model with observations and to identify the occurrence during the year of the characteristic hydrodynamic features attributable to the main forcings. The action of Bora wind characterizes the surface current patterns of February and November 2004, while Sirocco influences the month of May 2004. During periods of weak wind, the model reproduces the small-scale vortical structures close to the littoral.     

Groundwater connections under a barrier beach: A case study in the Venice Lagoon

The flow of groundwater beneath barrier islands has been cited as a possible pathway for salt water and chemical exchange between a protected embayment and the open sea. Evidence is presented that identifies an exchange of groundwater through a highly permeable paleoinlet along the barrier beach of Cavallino, which separates the northern Venice Lagoon from the Adriatic Sea. We utilized both point measurements of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) and a geophysical investigation of the subsurface resistivity to analyze the movement of saline groundwater. Discharge of groundwater and associated nutrients, was higher at the site of a former inlet than at a similar site along the barrier and modulated by the difference in tidal water level between the lagoon and Adriatic Sea. If the measured conditions are typical, storm surge barriers could potentially result in a saline groundwater flow of up to 1.5×10⁶ m³ d⁻¹ into the lagoon.     

Determination of polychlorobiphenyl congeners (PCBs) in the surface water of the Venice lagoon

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the degree of PCB contamination of Venice lagoon water. The PCB determination was made on the filtrate ("dissolved PCBs") and on the particulate collected on the filters ("particulate PCBs") by continuous liquid-liquid extraction and sonication, respectively, and by HRGC-LRMS analysis. An estimation of the procedural and "working" blanks was also made. Water samples were collected at six sites, selected to represent all the pollution situations present in the lagoon, and at a site in the Adriatic Sea. The range of the total sum ("dissolved plus particulate") of 49 congener concentrations falls between 355 and 1868 pgl(-1); the "dissolved" fraction concentrations (250-792 pgl(-1)) are greater at six sites than that of the "particulate" fraction (105-1273 pgl(-1)). Chemometric analyses suggest that the PCB congener pattern in the Venice Lagoon is different from that in the Adriatic Sea.     

The effect of wind on the residual current velocities in the inlets of Venice lagoon

The residual flow in the inlets of Venice lagoon subject to Bora and Sirocco winds has been studied. Current velocities have been monitored since 2001 using Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) installed on the beds of the inlets that connect the lagoon to the Adriatic Sea; these inlets are Lido, Malamocco and Chioggia. Wind velocity data have also been continuously measured at an oceanographic platform 14.8 km offshore from the lagoon; these data were subsequently decomposed into Principal Components, which are associated with Bora and Sirocco wind directions. Analyses show that the inflow in Lido inlet is strongly related to the Bora wind. The outflow in Chioggia inlet occurs during Bora events but shows a slightly weaker correlation with the wind speed, while Malamocco inlet shows little or no influence of Bora winds on flow patterns. A net residual inflow through Lido and Malamocco inlet was found, while outflow prevails in Chioggia inlet. During Bora events, the average residual inflow increased three-fold in Lido inlet, whereas the outflow in Chioggia inlet doubled. The current velocities in Lido and Chioggia inlets are best described by an exponential function of wind velocity with exponents of −0.1187 and −0.0924, respectively. The response to Sirocco events was evident mainly in Chioggia inlet. Specifically, there was a slow down of the outflow in linear proportion to wind speed. In excess of 10 m/s a complete current reversal was observed. Lido and Malamocco inlets showed little or no response to Sirocco winds, except during rare cases when wind speeds exceeded 15 m/s.     

Integrating Geotechnical and Interferometric SAR Measurements for Secondary Compressibility Characterization of Coastal Soils

Persistent scatterer interferometry (PSI) provides a new perspective to monitor the movements of coastal structures due to long-term consolidation using satellite-borne remote sensors. The method has the advantages of detecting the displacements at a very high spatial (from 1 to a few meters) and temporal (from 10 to 30?days) resolution. Cost-effective monitoring of complex and large (some kilometer long) structures can be done over long time (up to 10?years) intervals and at large scales (tens times tens km²) of investigation. Here, these measurements are integrated with geotechnical, site-specific measurements to characterize in a unique framework the long-term compressibility of coastal soils over large areas. The approach is tested on the 60-km-long coastland of the Venice Lagoon, Italy. An accurate quantification of the movements of coastal infrastructures at the Venice coastland is carried out by PSI using ENVISAT ASAR and TerraSAR-X images acquired from April 2003 to December 2009 and from March 2008 to January 2009, respectively. Several nearshore and offshore structures were constructed over the decades to protect Venice and its coastal environment from sea storms and high tides. Long jetties were built at the lagoon inlets since the end of the 18th century, significantly reinforced between 1994 and 1997, and finally reshaped since 2003 in the framework of the MOSE construction (i.e., the project of mobile barriers for the temporarily closure of the lagoon to the sea). The measured displacements range from a few mm/year for the structures older than 10?years to 50–70?mm/year for those realized a few years ago. The PSI measurements are combined with the outcome of a detailed geomechanical characterization of the lagoon subsoil obtained by a field-scale experiment started at the end of 2002 and monitored to 2008. The use of the stress-strain properties derived from the trial embankment and the actual lithostratigraphy below the coastal structures, which is available from several piezocone profiles and boreholes, allows for the computation of secondary compression (consolidation) rates that match very well the PSI-derived movements. The results provide important information on the potential of using PSI to characterizing geotechnical properties (magnitude and distribution) of coastal deposits, as well as to estimate the expected time-dependent geomechanical response of coastal structures or other large constructions.     

The climate change impact on the water balance of the Curonian Lagoon

The Curonian Lagoon is the biggest fresh water basin in Lithuania influenced by the exchange of the fresh Nemunas and other smaller rivers’ water and saline water of the Baltic Sea. The lagoon ecosystem is influenced by fresh, brackish and brackish water masses. A long-term water balance of the Curonian Lagoon was calculated for the period of 1960–2009. The sum river inflow is 21.784 km³/year, precipitation—1.199 km³/year, evaporation—1.007 km³/year, inflow of brackish water from the Baltic Sea to the Curonian Lagoon—6.171 km³/year, and fresh water runoff from the Curonian Lagoon to the Baltic Sea—27.642 km³/year. The lagoon water balance elements have been influenced by climate change. The water balance forecasting has been performed for the period of 2011–2100. The climate change impact on the water balance of the Lagoon has been evaluated using Global Climate Models (ECHAM5 and HadCM3), greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1), and hydrological modelling by Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) software. One scenario was selected for the prediction of the Baltic Sea water level. Considerable changes of the Curonian Lagoon water balance are forecasted in the 21st century. Increase of weather temperature and changes in precipitation will influence the elements of water balance of the Curonian Lagoon. In the period of 2011–2100, the river inflow and outflow from the Baltic Sea into the Lagoon will decrease respectively by 20.4 and 16.6% in comparison with the baseline period (1961–1990). The amount of precipitation and evaporation will increase respectively by 3.8 and 25.1%, while inflow from the Baltic Sea into the Curonian Lagoon will increase up to 39.7% in comparison with the baseline period.     

Hydrodynamics and suspended sediment transport at tidal inlets of Salut Mengkabong Lagoon,Sabah,Malaysia

Salut-Mengabong Lagoon is located at the west coast of Sabah facing the South China Sea. At the bay side of the main inlet the lagoon splits into Salut and Mengabong Channels. Sediment dynamics at the inlets of the lagoon have recently received considerable attention. But any direct measurement of hydrodynamics and sediment flux are yet to be well documented. This study covers the field measurements of current velocity, water flux, suspended sediment concentration and sediment flux across the three transects (main inlet, Salut entrance and Mengkabong entrance) during typical spring and neap tidal cycles in southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon. Temporal variations and time-averaged values of measured parameters are discussed. The inlets of Salut-Mengkabong Lagoon are found to be ebb-dominated. The time-averaged velocities during spring tidal measurements are found to be higher in the main inlet followed by Mengkabong entrance and Salut entrance. Suspended sediment concentration and sediment fluxes are substantially higher in spring tidal cycles compared to the same in neap tidal cycles. During spring tidal cycles, ebb tidal sediment fluxes are higher than the flood tidal fluxes. The ebb dominated flux across the main inlet led to the large ebb shoal.     

Influence of tide and waves on water renewal in Óbidos Lagoon, Portugal

The role of oceanic tide, wind stress, freshwater river inflows, and waves in the long-term circulation and residence time in óbidos Lagoon is investigated using a sensitivity analysis carried out by means of a two-dimensional model. MOHID modeling system coupled to Steady-State Spectral Wave model for simulate óbidos Lagoon circulation were implemented. For residence time calculus, a Lagrangian transport model was used. Tidal forcing is shown to be the dominant forcing, although storm waves must be considered to simulate accurately the long-term circulation. Tidal forcing enhances a spatial distribution in water residence time. Renewal time scales varies from values of 2 days in the near-ocean areas and 3 weeks in the inner areas. Freshwater river inflows decrease the residence time, while waves increase. In heavy rain periods, the water residence time decreases by about 40% in the upper lagoon. When wave forcing is considered, the residence time increases between 10% and 50% depending on lagoon area. The increase in residence time is explained by the sea level rise within lagoon (~1 m above average lagoon sea level) during storm wave periods. Average residence time is 16 days for tidal forcing, 9 days when the rivers are included (wet period), and 18 days when the waves are considered.     

Tidal dynamics of the Terminos Lagoon,Mexico: observations and 3D numerical modelling

The tidal circulation patterns in the Terminos Lagoon were studied based on the analysis of 1 year of measurements and numerical simulations using a baroclinic 3D hydrodynamic model, the MARS3D. A gauging network was installed consisting of six self-recording pressure–temperature sensors, a tide gauge station and two current profilers, with pressure and temperature sensors moored in the main lagoon inlets. Model simulations were validated against current and sea level observations and were used to analyse the circulation patterns caused by the tidal forcing. The numerical model was forced with eight harmonic components, four diurnal (K ₁, O ₁, P ₁, Q ₁) and four semi-diurnal (M ₂, S ₂, N ₂, K ₂), extracted from the TPX0.7 database. The tidal patterns in the study area vary from mixed, mainly diurnal in the two main inlets of the lagoon, to diurnal in its interior. The tidal residual circulation inside the lagoon is dominated by a cyclonic gyre. The results indicate a net flux from the southwest Ciudad del Carmen inlet (CdC) towards the northeast Puerto Real inlet (PtR) along the southern side of the lagoon and the opposite in the northern side. The results indicate two areas of strong currents in the vicinity of the inlets and weak currents inside the lagoon. The area of strong currents in the vicinity of the CdC inlet is larger than that observed in the PtR inlet. Nevertheless, the current analysis indicates that the highest current speeds, which can reach a magnitude of 1.9 m s^?1, occurred in PtR. A further analysis of the tide distortion in the inlets revealed that both passages are ebb dominated.     

Numerical study of surface water circulation around Sekisei Lagoon, southwest Japan

This paper discusses the variability of surface currents around Sekisei Lagoon using a nested grid ocean circulation model. We developed a triple-nested grid system that consists of a coarse-resolution (1/60° or ∼1.85 km) model off Taiwan, an intermediate-resolution (1/300° or ∼370 m) model around the Yaeyama Islands, and a fine-resolution (1/900° or ∼123 m) model of Sekisei Lagoon. The nested grid system was forced by wind and heat flux calculated from six-hourly atmospheric reanalysis data and integrated over the period from May to July 2003. The coarse-resolution model was driven by lateral boundary conditions calculated from daily ocean reanalysis data to include realistic variation of the Kuroshio and mesoscale eddies with spatial scales of ∼500–700 km in the open ocean. The tidal forcing was included in the intermediate-resolution model by interpolating sea level data obtained from a data-assimilative tidal model. The results were then used to drive the fine-resolution model to simulate the surface water circulation around Sekisei lagoon. Model results show that (1) currents inside the lagoon are mainly driven by tide and wind; (2) there exists a strong southwestward current along the bottom slope in the southeast portion of the lagoon; the current is mainly driven by remote mesoscale eddies and at times intensified by the local wind; (3) the flow relaxation scheme is effective in reducing biases along the open boundaries. The simulated currents were used to examine the retention and dispersion of passive particles in the surface layer. Results show that the surface dispersion in the strong open ocean current region is significantly higher than that inside the lagoon.     

Estimating sediment transport from acoustic measurements in the Venice Lagoon inlets

This paper presents the results of a 3-year-long (November 2004–November 2007) study based on the use of acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) to estimate the solid transport through the three inlets of Venice lagoon. In each of the three inlets instruments were mounted both on survey boats and deployed on the channel bed. The three bottom-mounted ADCPs were positioned in the central part of the inlets, continuously monitoring vertical profiles in the water column. Periodic transects along the investigated sections were collected by the boat-mounted ADCP. Both installations measured current speed and acoustic backscatter intensity. The latter expresses the attenuation of acoustic energy due to material in the water column.     

Isotopic and geochemical characterization of salinization in the shallow aquifers of a reclaimed subsiding zone: The southern Venice Lagoon coastland

The coastal plain bordering the southern Venice Lagoon is a reclaimed lowland characterized by high subsidence rate, and ground level and water-table depth below sea level. In this agricultural region, where the surface hydrologic network is entirely artificially controlled by irrigation/drainage canals, salinization problems have long been encountered in soils and groundwaters. Here we use isotopic and geochemical tracers to improve our understanding of the origin of salinization and mineralization of the semi-confined aquifer (0–40 m), and the freshwater inputs to this hydrological system. Water samples have been collected at different seasons in the coastal Adriatic Sea, lagoon, rivers and irrigation canals, as well as in the semi-confined aquifer at depths between 12 and 35 m (14 boreholes), and in the first confined aquifer (three boreholes drilled between 40 and 80 m depth). Stable isotopes (δ¹⁸O and δD) and conductivity profiles show that direct saline intrusion from the sea or the lagoon is observed only in a restricted coastal strip, while brackish groundwaters are found over the entire topographic and piezometric depression in the centre of the study area. Fresh groundwaters are found only in the most western zone. The sharp isotopic contrast between the western and central regions suggests disconnected hydrological circulations between these two parts of the shallow aquifer. The border between these two regions also corresponds to the limits of the most strongly subsiding zone.Our results can be interpreted in terms of a four end-member mixing scheme, involving (1) marine water from the lagoon or the open sea, (2) alpine and pre-alpine regional recharge waters carried either by the main rivers Adige, Bacchiglione and Brenta (irrigation waters) or by the regional groundwater circulation, (3) local precipitation, and (4) evaporated waters infiltrated from the surface. Infiltration from the surface is also revealed by the stratification of the electrical conductivity profiles, showing that the brackish groundwaters are overlain by a shallow layer of less saline water all over the central depression. In the first confined aquifer, the groundwaters have isotopic compositions similar to the deep groundwaters of the Venetian confined aquifers (40–400 m depth). The isotopic data and the Br/Cl ratio show that the origin of the salinization of the phreatic aquifer can be ascribed to seawater intrusion alone, with no indication of the involvement of deep brines (identified at 450 m depth) in the process.The chemical composition of the saline and brackish groundwaters is characterized by an excess of sodium and a deficit of calcium compared to conservative mixing between fresh groundwaters and seawater. This suggests that the phreatic aquifer is progressively freshening, as a consequence of the beneficial influence of the extensive irrigation/drainage network, including raised canals acting as a hydraulic barrier along the coast. This freshening tendency may have been lasting since the reclamation in the mid-twentieth century, and has probably been accelerated by the ban on groundwater abstraction since the 1970s.     

Air--sea gaseous exchange of PCB at the Venice lagoon (Italy)

Water bodies are important storage media for persistent organic pollutants (POPs) such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and this function is increased in coastal regions because their inputs are higher than those to the open sea. The air-water interface is extensively involved with the global cycling of PCBs because it is the place where they accumulate due to depositional processes and where they may be emitted by gaseous exchange. In this work the parallel collection of air, microlayer and sub-superficial water samples was performed in July 2005 at a site in the Venice lagoon to evaluate the summer gaseous flux of PCBs. The total concentration of PCBs (sum of 118 congeners) in air varies from 87 to 273 pg m(-3), whereas in the operationally defined dissolved phase of microlayer and sub-superficial water samples it varies from 159 to 391 pg L(-1). No significant enrichment of dissolved PCB into the microlayer has been observed, although a preferential accumulation of most hydrophobic congeners occurs. Due to this behaviour, we believe that the modified two-layer model was the most suitable approach for the evaluation of the flux at the air-sea interface, because it takes into account the influence of the microlayer. From its application it appears that PCB volatilize from the lagoon waters with a net flux varying from 58 to 195 ng m(-2)d(-1) (uncertainty: +/-50-64%) due to the strong influence of wind speed. This flux is greater than those reported in the literature for the atmospheric deposition and rivers input and reveals that PCB are actively emitted from the Venice lagoon in summer months.     

The Consequences of the Oder Flood in 1997 on the Distribution of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Oder River Estuary

Changes in the levels and spatial distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as a consequence of the Oder flood in the summer of 1997 were investigated in surface water samples and fluffy layer material from the Oder Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bight. The measurements of the contaminants were complemented by satellite data to describe the spreading of the Oder flood discharge including the distribution of the particulate material. During the flood elevated levels of PAHs were discussed in the surface water and fluffy layer material of the Oder River Estuary in comparison to the average values in this region. These increased concentrations were attributed to flooding of municipal and industrial waste disposal areas in the drainage area of the Oder River. The meteorological conditions during the sampling period were characterized by predominant easterly winds, which guided the river plume along the German coast into the Arkona Sea, as verified by satellite observations. The highest concentrations of PAHs were observed near the mouth of the Swina and along the main direction of the river plume. Elevated concentrations of PAHs were also found in fluffy layer samples taken from the Oder Lagoon in late August. As derived from satellite data the eastern and the western parts of the lagoon differed in their SPM load during the entire flood period. The eastern part was covered by Oder water, while the western part contained a mixture of Oder Lagoon water. The highest concentrations of PAHs were not observed in the western part with the highest suspended matter values, but in the eastern part where the flood water entered the lagoon. Despite the significantly increased PAH levels measured during the flood, all measured concentrations were below the values that are considered to pose a risk to the ecosystem.     

Sediment budget in the Lagoon of Venice,Italy

A comparison of 1927, 1970 and 2002 bathymetric surveys in the Lagoon of Venice was used to reconstruct historical changes in sedimentation. A detailed GIS-based analysis of the charts revealed the timing and pattern of geomorphic changes and allowed calculation of sediment deposition and erosion for the entire lagoon and each of its four sub-basins: Treporti, Lido, Malamocco and Chioggia.     

The use of statistical methods to separate natural background and anthropogenic concentrations of trace elements in radio-chronologically selected surface sediments of the Venice Lagoon

A new method has been developed that predicts the natural background concentrations of microelements of interest in sediments using the concentrations of various components present in the sample. This is done by developing multiple linear regressions using a dataset which has been selected, using radiochronological dating and statistical methods, to reflect the concentration distributions of natural levels of a large number of sediment constituents. This method is demonstrated in Venice Lagoon, using data generated in a lagoon-wide sampling effort. A quantitative assessment is carried out of the variability of natural background levels at the lagoon scale for the main inorganic microelements, and distribution maps of the background and anthropogenic concentrations of a selected metal (Ni) in sediments at the lagoon scale are presented. With sufficient data, this method can be applied in other areas, allowing for a site-specific separation of natural background and anthropogenic levels of microconstituents in sediments, providing insights into regional geochemistry and aiding in the risk-based management of coastal sediments.     

Floods in the Venetian Lagoon and Their Causes

Water Resources - The causes and features of storm surges formation in the Venetian Lagoon are discussed. The experience of sea level observations in Venice and the history of floods caused by...     

Future evolution of a tidal inlet due to changes in wave climate, Sea level and lagoon morphology (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal)

Tidal inlets are extremely dynamic, as a result of an often delicate balance between the effects of tides, waves and other forcings. Since the morphology of these inlets can affect navigation, water quality and ecosystem dynamics, there is a clear need to anticipate their evolution in order to promote adequate management decisions. Over decadal time scales, the position and size of tidal inlets are expected to evolve with the conditions that affect them, for instance as a result of climate change. A process-based morphodynamic modeling system is validated and used to analyze the effects of sea level rise, an expected shift in the wave direction and the reduction of the upper lagoon surface area by sedimentation on a small tidal inlet (Óbidos lagoon, Portugal). A new approach to define yearly wave regimes is first developed, which includes a seasonal behavior, random inter-annual variability and the possibility to extrapolate trends. Once validated, this approach is used to produce yearly time series of wave spectra for the present and for the end of the 21st century, considering the local rotation trends computed using hindcast results for the past 57 years. Predictions of the mean sea level for 2100 are based on previous studies, while the bathymetry of the upper lagoon for the same year is obtained by extrapolation of past trends. Results show, and data confirm, that the Óbidos lagoon inlet has three stable configurations, largely determined by the inter-annual variations in the wave characteristics. Both sea level rise and the reduction of the lagoon surface area will promote the accretion of the inlet. In contrast, the predicted rotation of the wave regime, within foreseeable limits, will have a negligible impact on the inlet morphology.