Pressure effects on past regional sea level trends and variability in the German Bight

The impact on a large-scale sea level pressure field to the regional mean sea level changes of the German Bight is analysed. A multiple linear regression together with an empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to describe the relationship between the sea level pressure and the regional mean sea level considering the time period 1924–2001. Both, the part of the variability and of the long-term trend that can be associated with changes in the sea level pressure, are investigated. Considering the whole time period, this regression explains 58?% of the variance and 33?% of the long-term trend of the regional mean sea level. The index of agreement between the regression result and the observed time series is 0.82. As a proxy for large-scale mean sea level changes, the mean sea level of the North East Atlantic is subsequently introduced as an additional predictor. This further improves the results. For that case, the regression explains 74?% of the variance and 87?% of the linear trend. The index of agreement rises to 0.92. These results suggest that the sea level pressure mainly accounts for the inter-annual variability and parts of the long-term trend of regional mean sea level in the German Bight while large-scale sea level changes in the North East Atlantic account for another considerable fraction of the observed long-term trend. Sea level pressure effects and the mean sea level of the North East Atlantic provide thus significant contributions to regional sea level rise and variability. When future developments are considered, scenarios for their future long-term trends thus need to be comprised in order to provide reliable estimates of potential future long-term changes of mean sea level in the German Bight.     

Evaluating climate variability and pumping effects in statistical analyses

As development of ground water resources reaches the limits of sustainability, it is likely that even small changes in inflow, outflow, or storage will have economic or environmental consequences. Anthropogenic impacts of concern may be on the scale of natural variability, making it difficult to distinguish between the two. Under these circumstances, we believe that it is important to account for effects from both ground water development and climate variability. We use several statistical methods, including trend analysis, cluster analysis, and time series analysis with seasonal decomposition, to identify climate and anthropogenic effects in regional ground water levels and spring discharge in southern Nevada. We discuss the parameterization of climate and suggest that the relative importance of various measures of climate provides information about the aquifer system response to climate. In our system, which may be characteristic of much of the arid southwestern United States, ground water levels are much more responsive to wet years than to dry years, based on the importance of selected climate parameters in the regression. Using cluster analysis and time series seasonal decomposition, we relate differences in amplitude and phase in the seasonal signal to two major forcings—climate and pumping—and distinguish between a regional recharge response to an extremely wet year and a seasonal pumping/evapotranspiration response that decays with distance from the pumping center. The observed spring discharge data support our hypothesis that regional spring discharge, particularly at higher elevation springs, is sensitive to relatively small ground water level changes.     

Spatial patterns of simulated transpiration response to climate variability in a snow dominated mountain ecosystem

Transpiration is an important component of soil water storage and stream‐flow and is linked with ecosystem productivity, species distribution, and ecosystem health. In mountain environments, complex topography creates heterogeneity in key controls on transpiration as well as logistical challenges for collecting representative measurements. In these settings, ecosystem models can be used to account for variation in space and time of the dominant controls on transpiration and provide estimates of transpiration patterns and their sensitivity to climate variability and change. The Regional Hydro‐Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) model was used to assess elevational differences in sensitivity of transpiration rates to the spatiotemporal variability of climate variables across the Upper Merced River watershed, Yosemite Valley, California, USA. At the basin scale, predicted annual transpiration was lowest in driest and wettest years, and greatest in moderate precipitation years (R² = 0·32 and 0·29, based on polynomial regression of maximum snow depth and annual precipitation, respectively). At finer spatial scales, responsiveness of transpiration rates to climate differed along an elevational gradient. Low elevations (1200–1800 m) showed little interannual variation in transpiration due to topographically controlled high soil moistures along the river corridor. Annual conifer stand transpiration at intermediate elevations (1800–2150 m) responded more strongly to precipitation, resulting in a unimodal relationship between transpiration and precipitation where highest transpiration occurred during moderate precipitation levels, regardless of annual air temperatures. Higher elevations (2150–2600 m) maintained this trend, but air temperature sensitivities were greater. At these elevations, snowfall provides enough moisture for growth, and increased temperatures influenced transpiration. Transpiration at the highest elevations (2600–4000 m) showed strong sensitivity to air temperature, little sensitivity to precipitation. Model results suggest elevational differences in vegetation water use and sensitivity to climate were significant and will likely play a key role in controlling responses and vulnerability of Sierra Nevada ecosystems to climate change. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tidal wave transformations in the German Bight

Mesoscale and submesoscale dynamics associated with tidal wave transformations were addressed in the German Bight using numerical simulations. Tidal gauge and velocity observations in several locations were used to validate the numerical model. A downscaling approach included analysis of simulations with horizontal resolutions of 1, 0.4, and 0.2 km. It was shown that the modified tidal wave lost most of its energy after reflection or refraction over the eastern part of the German Bight. Energy loss resulted in a pronounced change of the wave’s spectral composition and generation of overtides. Tidal oscillations were modified by mesoscale processes associated with bathymetric channels. Semidiurnal and quarterdiurnal tides revealed very different spatial patterns. The former were aligned with the bathymetric channels, while the latter were rather “patchy” and had about half the spatial scales. In numerous areas around the bathymetric channels, the major axis of the M₄ ellipses was normal or at some angle with the major axis of the M₂ ellipses. Thus, higher harmonics developed “orthogonal” patterns that drove secondary circulations. Moreover, the ratio between spring and neap tidal amplitudes was relatively low in the Wadden Sea, showing reduced sensitivity of this very shallow area to fortnightly tidal variations. It was demonstrated that simulated hydrodynamics patterns help explain the physical mechanism shaping the median grain size distribution in the German Bight.     

Wind-driven wave heights in the German Bight

Wind speed, friction velocity and significant wave height data from the FINO1 platform in the southern German Bight 45 km off the coast for the years 2004 to 2006 have been evaluated and related to each other. The data show a clear dependence of the hourly mean wave height to the hourly mean friction velocity and wind speed. Wave heights increase with decreasing stratification and increasing fetch. Synoptic weather patterns for the highest wave heights in the southern German Bight are determined. The analysis is made separately for four wind direction sectors. The two strongest storms in the evaluated period, “Britta” and “Erwin”, are analysed in more detail. Finally, the 50-year extreme significant wave height has been estimated to be about 11 m most probably coming from northerly directions.     

Determining sea level change in the German Bight

Regional mean sea level changes in the German Bight are considered. Index time series derived from 15 tide gauge records are analysed. Two different methods for constructing the index time series are used. The first method uses arithmetic means based on all available data for each time step. The second method uses empirical orthogonal functions. Both methods produce rather similar results for the time period 1924–2008. For this period, we estimate that regional mean sea level increased at rates between 1.64 and 1.74 mm/year with a 90% confidence range of 0.28 mm/year in each case. Before 1924, only data from a few tide gauges are available with the longest record in Cuxhaven ranging back till 1843. Data from these tide gauges, in particular from Cuxhaven, thus receive increasingly more weight when earlier years are considered. It is therefore analysed to what extent data from Cuxhaven are representative for the regional sea level changes in the German Bight. While this cannot be clarified before 1924, it is found that this is not the case from 1924 onwards when changes in Cuxhaven can be compared to that derived from a larger data set. Furthermore, decadal variability was found to be substantial with relatively high values towards the end of the analysis period. However, these values are not unusual when compared to earlier periods.     

Comparison between measured and calculated tidal ellipses in the German Bight

Using a three-dimensional non-linear shelf model, the elliptical properties (ellipticity, inclination of the ellipse, major and minor semi-axis and phase) of the M₂ tide in the German Bight were calculated and compared with CODAR measurements. A series of barotropic and baroclinic calculations were carried out to investigate the influence of geometry, stratification and particularly inputs of freshwater on these parameters. The elliptical properties undergo stronger changes in zones of influence of embayments and in the deepening of the old Elbe Valley. Friction effects in the shallow areas are responsible for robust vertical variations of the ellipticity. The island of Helgoland induces wakes on its western and eastern sides. The discharge of freshwater of the rivers Elbe, Weser and Ems induced in general negative ellipticity. Although primarily determined by geography, baroclinic effects significantly modified the inclination of the ellipses. The calculated ellipses pattern of anticlockwise and clockwise tidal current rotation agrees quite well with CODAR measurements. The elliptical properties give a general idea of the interaction of tidal waves with coastal geometries.Responsible Editor: Hans Burchard     

Terrestrial ecosystem scenarios and their response to climate change in Eurasia

During the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI), simulating the change trends of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia under different climate scenarios is a key ecological issue. The HLZ ecosystem model was improved to simulate the changes in the spatial distribution and types of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia based on the climate data from Eurasian meteorological stations from 1981 to 2010 and the data from the RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios released by CMIP5 from 2010 to 2100. Ecological diversity and patch connectivity index models were used to quantitatively calculate the future changes in ecological diversity and patch connectivity of terrestrial ecosystems in Eurasia. The results show that(1) cold temperate wet forest, cool temperate moist forest and desert are the major terrestrial ecosystem types and cover 36.71% of the total area of Eurasia.(2) Under all three scenarios, the polar/nival area would shrink more than other terrestrial ecosystem types and would decrease by 26.75 million km2 per decade on average, and the subpolar/alpine moist tundra would have the fastest decreasing rate of 10.49% per decade on average from 2010 to 2100.(3) Under the RCP85 scenario, the rate of terrestrial ecosystem changes will be greater than that under the other two scenarios, and the subpolar/alpine moist tundra would exhibit the fastest decreasing rate of 10.88% per decade from 2010 to 2100.(4) The ecological diversity would generally show decreasing trends and decrease by 0.09%, 0.13% and 0.16% per decade on average under the RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios,respectively.(5) The patch connectivity would first increase and then decrease under all three scenarios. In general, the trends of the changes in terrestrial ecosystems would show an obvious difference in the different regions throughout the BRI area.     

湖泊沉积物DNA在气候环境变化和生态系统响应研究中的应用

随着气候与生态问题的不断涌现,气候环境变化与生态系统响应研究的重要性日益凸显,而传统方法逐渐难以满足深入研究的需要.现代分子生物技术的快速发展使针对湖泊沉积物的DNA分析逐渐被引入相关研究中,有效弥补了传统研究方法的不足,为研究者提供了理解过去气候和环境变化、生态系统响应的新视角.湖泊沉积物中的DNA蕴藏着丰富的生物群...     

On the relation between residual currents and the wind field in the German Bight

Summary The long-period part (T>25 h) of currents measured at close spacing in the German Bight in June 1968 is investigated. The north component of the bottom current is shown to be highly correlated with the east component of the wind in this area, the wind-generated changes of the mass-field giving rise to a quasi-geostrophic current near the bottom.This current responds without perceptible delay to the variations of wind fields with periods considerably longer than those of the seiches of the North Sea. The accelerations linked to such long periods are so small as to be negligable and the residual currents can be regarded as quasi-stationary.

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Über die Beziehung zwischen Reststrom und Windfeld in der Deutschen Bucht

Zusammenfassung Es werden engabständige Strommessungen in der Deutschen Bucht aus dem Juni 1968 in ihrem langperiodischen Teil (T>25 h) untersucht. Dabei ergibt sich, daß die Nordkomponente des Bodenstromes (v) stark korreliert mit der Ostkomponente des Windes (U) in diesem Gebiet. Die winderzeugten Veränderungen des Massenfeldes verursachen eine quasi-geostrophische Strömung am Boden.Diese Strömung reagiert ohne erkennbare Verzögerung auf solche Veränderungen des Windfeldes, die erheblich größere Perioden haben als die Eigenschwingungen der Nordsee. Die damit verbundenen Beschleunigungen sind sehr klein und so zu vernachlässigen; daher kann man die Restströmung auch als quasi-stationär ansehen.

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Sur la relation entre les courants résiduels et le champ du vent en baie Allemande

Résumé La partie à longue période (T>25 h) de courants measurés en des points rapprochés en baie Allemande en juin 1968 est étudiée. La composante Nord du courant de fond se révèle largement corrélée avec la composante Est du vent dans cette zone. Les modifications du champ de masse dues au vent donnent naissance à un courant quasi-géostrophique près du fond.Ce courant répond sans délai perceptible aux variations du champ du vent avec des périodes considérablement plus longues que celles des seiches de la mer du Nord. Les accélérations liées à de telles longues périodes sont si petites qu'elles peuvent être négligées et les courants peuvent être considérés comme quasi-stationnaires.