A surrogate-based simulation–optimization approach application to parameters’ identification for the HydroGeoSphere model

A systematic approach is needed to use water more productively, because water shortages limit socio-economic development in many parts of the world. The aim of this paper is to establish a surrogate-based simulation–optimization approach to identify parameter values for a fully integrated surface water and groundwater flow coupling simulation. A surface water and groundwater flow coupling simulation model was implemented using HydroGeoSphere (HGS) model and the parameter sensitivities in the model were analyzed using local sensitivity analysis method. The parameters that exerted a large influence on the output results of the HGS model were then selected as stochastic variables, and the stochastic variable data sets were generated using the latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method, which, thereby, were used as inputs in HGS model to obtain the corresponding outputs. On the basis of input and output data sets, a kriging surrogate model of the HGS model was then established and verified, and parameter values of HGS model were identified using a surrogate-based simulation–optimization approach. The results of this study show that parameters that exert a large influence on the simulation output results include hydraulic conductivity, porosity, the van genuchten parameter (\(\alpha\)), and channel manning coefficient. The established kriging surrogate model is an ideal alternative to the HGS model for simulating and predicting, while optimal parameter values can be identified effectively and accurately using the established approach. The results of this research reveal that huge computational loads can be mitigated while using the kriging surrogate as an alternative for a simulation model in the solution process of optimization model.     

Methane fluxes on the water–atmosphere boundary in the Sea of Okhotsk

Doklady Earth Sciences - High variability in methane fluxes at the water–atmosphere boundary was found for the first time for the period 1990–2016 using expeditionary data. Variability...     

Decoupling and decomposing analysis of construction industry’s energy consumption in China

Natural Hazards - The construction industry is one of the key industries for driving energy conservation in China. Decoupling of the construction industry development from energy consumption has...     

The analysis and forecast for fouling in water pipelines in Daqing oilfield

In order to maintain the reservoir pressure and improve oil recovery efficiency, water flood recovery is used commonly in the middle and last periods of oilfield exploitation. At the same time, in order to avoid environmental pollution, the oilfield sewage should be reinjected. During that manufacture, variations in the conditions of pressure, temperature and unstability and incompatibility of thermodynamics make scale formation in water flood assize, casing, bottom of the wells, surface equipments and gathering lines. Taking the Daqing oil field for example, in which the surface gathering lines the scale forming is comparatively serious. In order to improve crude oil processing effect to warm up wet oil, this measure results in scale formation constant in pipelines and equipments, so inner diameter becomes less, leading to back pressure ascent in pipelines, the loss of efficiency of processing equipment, these all have a strong impact on normal activities in oilfield, increase the frequency of maintenance repairs and replacements for pipelines and equipments, and reduce the completion benefit. So forecasting the scaling tendency of surface gathering pipelines, and judging the degree of the scaling tendency or possibility, preventing and controlling scaling effectively is not a negligible research topic in petroleum production technology and oil-gas-water treatment technology. This paper introduces the fouling process, fouling mechanism and the influence factors of the scale, mainly analyses the formation mechanism of calcium carbonate and calcium sulfate, and some factors, such as temperature, pressure, salinity and some thermodynamics conditions. All these factors lead to changes in ionic equilibrium condition, so they will influence the fouling. This paper analyses the main kinds of scale in the gathered transportation water pipeline in the forth plant in the Daqing Oilfield, adopts the method of saturation exponent and energetic solubility to forecast the trend of fouling, reduces the calcium carbonate showing scaling tendency, calcium sulfate having the possibility of scaling.     

Comparison between the TOPMODEL and the Xin’anjiang model and their application to rainfall runoff simulation in semi-humid regions

To study the application of the TOPMODEL and the Xin’anjiang model to rainfall runoff simulation in semi-humid regions, the Holtan excess infiltration runoff module was added to the TOPMODEL structure. The basin of the Heihe Jinpen Reservoir in Shaanxi Province, China, was selected as the study area. Rainfall and runoff data and digital elevation models were collected. The watershed topographic parameters and 21 floods that occurred from 2005 to 2013 were obtained to simulate rainfall runoff. Results show that the improved TOPMODEL and the Xin’anjiang model can effectively stimulate rainfall runoff. The average values of their Nash coefficient are 0.84 and 0.83, respectively, upon calibration, and 0.78 and 0.80, respectively, upon validation. The Xin’anjiang model performs slightly better than the improved TOPMODEL. The results of large flood peaks are better than those of ordinary floods. Both results can be used to simulate the rainfall runoff of a watershed.     

Application of the cBΩ model to the calculation of diffusion parameters of He in olivine

The validity of the thermodynamic cBΩ model is tested in terms of the experimentally determined diffusion coefficients of He in a natural Fe-bearing olivine (Fo₉₀) and a synthetic end-member forsterite (Mg₂SiO₄) over a broad temperature range (250–950 °C), as reported recently by Cherniak and Watson (Geochem Cosmochim Acta 84:269–279, 2012). The calculated activation enthalpies for each of the three crystallographic axes were found to be (134 ± 5), (137 ± 13) and (158 ± 4) kJ mol^?1 for the [100], [010] and [001] directions in forsterite, and (141 ± 9) kJ mol^?1 for the [010] direction in olivine, exhibiting a deviation of <1 % with the corresponding reported experimental values. Additional point defect parameters such as activation volume, activation entropy and activation Gibbs free energy were calculated as a function of temperature. The estimated activation volumes (3.2–3.9 ± 0.3 cm³ mol^?1) of He diffusion in olivine are comparable with other reported results for hydrogen and tracer diffusion of Mg cations in olivine. The pressure dependence of He diffusion coefficients was also determined, based on single experimental diffusion measurements at 2.6 and 2.7 GPa along the [001] direction in forsterite at 400 and 650 °C.     

Thermodynamic simulation of the effect of eutrophication on the behavior of heavy metals in bottom sediments by the example of the Inan’kovsky water reservoir

A thermodynamic model of the behavior of heavy metals in bottom sediments during their eutrophication is developed. The results show that liberation of heavy metals from the reduced ferrous sorbent is accompanied by sorption on clay and organic sorbents. The process is complicated by competitive correlations between heavy metals and calcium ions, while the formation of carbonate cement in the sediments yields additional sorption. As a result, the predicted concentrations of the majority of microelements, namely heavy metals, in the interstitial water of the reduced bottom sediments do not exceed the maximum permissible concentration (MPC).     

Crystal chemistry of wadsleyite II and water in the Earth’s interior

Wadsleyite II is a variably hydrous magnesium-iron silicate phase similar to spinelloid IV and a potential host for H in the Transition Zone of the Earths mantle. Two separate samples of wadsleyite II synthesized at 17.5 GPa and 1400°C and at 18 GPa and 1350°C have been characterized by electron microprobe, single-crystal X-ray diffraction, visible, IR, Raman, and Mössbauer spectroscopies, and transmission electron microscopy including electron energy-loss spectroscopy. The two samples have the following chemical formulae: Mg_1.71Fe_0.18Al_0.01H_0.33Si_0.96O₄ and Mg_1.60Fe_0.22Al_0.01 H_0.44Si_0.97O₄. Mössbauer spectroscopy and electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) indicate that about half of the iron present is ferric. Refinement of the structures shows them to be essentially the same as spinelloid IV. Calculated X-ray powder diffraction patterns show only subtle differences between wadsleyite and wadsleyite II. The hydration mechanism appears to be protonation of the non-silicate oxygen (O2) and possibly the oxygens surrounding the partially vacant tetrahedral site Si2, charge-balanced by cation vacancies in Si2, M5 and M6. The unit cell volume of this phase and its synthesis conditions indicate that it may be an intermediate phase occurring between the fields of wadsleyite and ringwoodite, if sufficient trivalent cations are available. The unit cell parameters have been refined at pressures up to 10.6 GPa by single-crystal X-ray diffraction in the diamond anvil cell. The refined bulk modulus for the sample containing 2.8 wt% H₂O is 145.6 ± 2.8 GPa with a K of 6.1 ± 0.7. Similar to wadsleyite and ringwoodite, hydration has a large effect on the bulk modulus. The presence of this phase in the mantle could serve to obscure the seismic expression of the phase boundary between wadsleyite and ringwoodite near 525 km. The large apparent effect of hydration on bulk modulus is consistent with hydration having a larger effect on seismic velocities than temperature in the Transition Zone.     

Carbonate equilibrium in the water of the Razdol’naya River

The paper suggests an accurate approach to studying carbonate equilibrium in the water of the Razdol’naya River. The approach involves measuring pH by Pitzer’s scale, using a cell without liquid junction; measuring the total alkalinity by Bruevich’s technique; and using apparent constants of carbonate equilibrium with regard for the organic alkalinity. The Pitzer technique was employed to calculate the apparent constants of carbonate equilibrium in solution that models the riverine water: Ca(HCO₃)₂–NaCl–H₂O within the range of alkalinity of 0–0.005 mol/kg and temperatures of 0–25°C. Carbonate equilibrium in the water of the Razdol’naya River was sampled for studying at eight sites during all four seasons. Although the contents of biogenic compounds in the water are high, they can merely insignificantly affect the acid–base equilibrium, which is controlled in the riverine water by carbonate equilibrium and the concentrations of humic substances, which play the greater role, the greater the discharge of the river. In addition to the production and destruction of organic matter, carbonate equilibrium in the river is also affected by the supply of humic substances with soil waters and total alkalinity with groundwaters. The fluxes of alkalinity and humic substances annually brought by the Razdol’naya River to Amur Bay are evaluated at 1.33 × 10⁹ mol and 9.9 × 10⁶ kgC, respectively. The carbon dioxide export with the Razdol’naya River is equal to the alkalinity flux and does not depend on the weathering mechanisms.     

Long-term trend analysis of water table using ‘MAKESENS’ model and sustainability of groundwater resources in drought prone Barind area,NW Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, agriculture plays a major role in the national economy. In the drought prone Barind area in NW Bangladesh, cropping intensity has increased almost double since late eighties of last century (from 1985) because of the introduction of groundwater irrigation. Long-term behavior of groundwater table (GWT) in the drought prone Barind area has been studied using MAKESENS model in the wake of massive installation of tube-wells. The study reveals that the maximum and minimum depths to GWT during 1991-2010 show on average declining trend of 4.51 m and 4.73 m. The long-term prediction for the period of 2020-50 assuming the current rate of groundwater withdrawal is that the declining trend will be 1.16 to 1.59 and 1.07 to 1.82 times more for maximum and minimum groundwater depths respectively in comparison to the present. The rigorous exploitation of groundwater for irrigation, decreasing rainfall and surface geological attributes lead towards declining trend of GWT. This will hamper the country’s food security and ultimately threaten its socio-economic sustainability. So the appropriate strategies for the management of groundwater resource on a sustainable basis should be the priority for maintaining agricultural productivity.     

Assessment of changes in the area of the water conservation forest in the Qilian Mountains of China’s Gansu province, and the effects on water conservation

The Qilian Mountains water conservation forest in Gansu province is an important ecological barrier surrounding the oasis in China’s Hexi Corridor. The water they provide is the basis for the existence and sustainable socioeconomic development of those oases. As a result of unsustainable use of the water conservation forest until the 1980s, the oasis ecosystems of the Hexi region were seriously damaged, and the oasis areas experienced deterioration of their ecological environment. In this paper, Landsat images were used to monitor the temporal and spatial changes in area of water conservation in Qilian Mountains of China’s Gansu province and to assess the effect on water conservation by analyzed relationship between water conservation forest area, climatic data and hydrological data. The results showed that the forest covered 15.1% of the study area in 2007 and has followed different trends during the study period. From 1978 to 1990, the forest area decreased; however, from 1990 to 2007, the forest area increased, with a faster rate of increase from 1990 to 2000, and the rate of increase averaged 2,733.89 ha per year since 1990. The water conservation forest appears to play an important role in flood control, runoff regulation, the prevention of soil erosion, and water conservation; and these benefits increase with an increasing area of forest.     

Tectonic model of seismicity for the northeastern segment of the Amur Plate in the Earth’s two-phased rotation

The spatial distribution of the epicenters and hypocenters is analyzed for earthquakes of 2 ≤ M < 6 that occurred in the northeastern segment of the Amur Plate in two phases of changes in the angular speed of the Earth’s rotation. Groups of seismic events in the magnitude interval of 5 ≤ M < 6 are distinguished in the form of NE-trending seismic clusters regularly alternating along the plane of latitude. The seismic clusters are up to 1500 km long and 180–240 km wide and cover the seismic zones with different geodynamic and seismotectonic conditions of seismicity origination. In terms of the epicentral distributions for earthquakes with 2 ≤ M < 4, seismic activity zones are distinguished; these zones are seen as seimolineaments coupling the Tan Lu seismic zones and the eastern flanks of the latitudinal seismic zones. A scheme of distinguishing the compression and extension zones from the spatial clusters of earthquakes with 5 ≤ M < 6 in two phases of changes in the angular speed of the Earth’s rotation is proposed. This scheme satisfactorily agrees with the model of seismotectonic reconstructions of the compression–extension fields and axes.     

A survey-based analysis of the public’s willingness for disaster relief in China

Natural Hazards - Meteorological disasters frequently occur in China and around the world. These natural hazards can cause huge economic losses and threaten the personal safety of citizens. The...     

Hydrochemical model and probable pollution in the water of Euphrates River (Qaem–Falluja)

The study of hydrochemical models and probable pollution in Euphrates River from Qaem–Al-Falluja was performed through regime observation in ten water points. The hydrochemical properties of Euphrates River waters are determined by using the analysis results of 21 physico-chemical variables during the water year (2008). The interpretation of the hydrochemical phenomena is achieved in accordance with the statistical results of Polynomial Regression Statistic, calculating the coefficient of variation among the physico-chemical components of the water terminating by 14 models. The results of monitoring during the water year 2008 indicate a pollution case by SO₄ and Cd in Ramadi and downstream stations; TDS, Mg, Na, Cl, Mn, and CO₂ in Ramadi station; TDS, Ca, Na, Cl, and Fe in Baghdadi station; and Ca and H _T in Qaem station and Mg in Obaydi station. The research suggests the best locations for hydrochemical monitoring as continuous hydrologic stations used for the long-term monitoring. These stations are in Qaem city as inlet location and Al-Baghdadi and Ramadi cities terminating in Falluja city as outlet location. Furthermore, daily record system is recommended for the other stations in each city to complete the regime observation of Euphrates water type. From the configuration approach of hydrochemical models with the pollution phenomena, there are potential point sources of pollution such as municipal effluent pipes and reused water from mining process for building materials in the first sector of river, which extends between Qaem and Haditha dam. Also groundwater seepages and springs discharge of mineralized water mixed with sewage water from cities act as potential point sources of pollution on the river water in the second sector extended between Haditha and Ramadi scheme. The third sector of the river is affected by all reasons in the first and second sectors as well as the effectiveness of agricultural activities throughout drainage canals and irrigation projects extended between Ramadi and Falluja cities.     

Geochemical characteristics and source analysis of inflow of mine water in Wang’ershan Gold Mine, Shandong

Through a systematic observation of water level and temperature, and a comprehensive analysis of the data on major/trace elements, nitrite, hydrogen-oxygen isotopes, the conclusion has been drawn that there are two relatively independent groundwater systems (cool water and hot water), and the geochemical indicators of hot/cool waters are described. The cool water system is relatively enriched in Ca2 , Mg2 and HCO3-. Its TDS is relatively low, about 1400–1800 mg/L. The hot water system is relatively enriched in K , Na , Cl- and SO42-. Its TDS is relatively high, about 2200–2300 mg/L. The cool water system is enriched in Ba, Ga, Cd, and the hot water system is enriched in B, Ti, Cr, Ni, Cu, Mo, Rb, and Cs, relatively. Especially, the contents of Rb and Cs in the hot water system are more than five times as high as those in the cool water system. The NO3- contents of cool water discharged from the gold mine are relatively high, and those of hot water are extremely low. The δD and δ18O values follow an increasing order of surface water>mine cool water>mine hot water. The cool water comes mainly from the lateral supply of phreatic water, while the hot water comes mainly from the vertical supply of deeply circulating structure-fracture water. The ratio of cool water over hot water was estimated to be about 1:1 by a water quality model..     

Block displacement fields in the Altai-Sayan region and effective rheologic parameters of the Earth’s crust

The paper is focused on recent displacement rates in the Altai-Sayan region, obtained by hydroleveling, leveling, and satellite geodesy. Effective elastic moduli and viscosity parameters of the crust are used in the modeling of coseismic and tectonic processes. The elastic moduli are determined from measurements of periodic vertical displacements during seasonal loadings of the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydropower plant. We present the results of the modeling of coseismic displacements during the earthquakes of 10 February 2011 (M = 6.1) and 27 December 2011 (M = 6.7) in Tuva and West Sayan. The results of GPS determinations for postseismic displacements in the Chuya earthquake zone (Gorny Altai, 27 September 2003, M = 7.5) are analyzed; models for the geologic medium are selected; and its effective viscosity is estimated. The tectonic component of the recent crustal displacements in the Altai-Sayan region is defined.