Soil characterization for seismic damage scenarios purposes: application to Angra do Heroísmo (Azores)

Angra do Heroismo, the main town of Terceira Island in the Azores Archipelago, was hit in 1980 by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake that caused great destruction in the central part of the town. Taking into consideration the high seismic hazard of the region and the cultural and social importance of Angra do Heroísmo, the elaboration of damage scenarios is of particular importance to implement measures for preserve and protect the town against future earthquakes. The first step is to perform microzonation studies in order to characterize the soil seismic behaviour. Taking into consideration the available geologic, geotechnical and geophysical information, a detailed soil characterization was performed based on the results from numerical modelling and the analysis of microtremor experimental measurements. Nine different soil profiles were identified, characterized and classified. Discussion on the detailed soil classification and the Eurocode 8 soil classification is presented. This study shows that even with an available code, microzonation studies must be developed in order to identify differences on soil behaviour inside the interested area. It shows also that the use of experimental measurements presents a great help on soil characterization. The obtained detailed classification will be used on the estimation of damage scenarios for Angra do Heroísmo.     

Ground motion records for seismic performance assessment: To rotate or not to rotate?

The response of a non‐circular structure strongly depends on the orientation of the horizontal ground motion components vis‐à‐vis the structure's principal axes. At the same time, the structural response is also a function of accelerogram characteristics that give rise to considerable record‐to‐record variability even when the incident angle is neglected. Therefore, when the structural orientation relative to the fault geometry is unknown and we have limited resources for estimating the distribution of structural response given the seismic intensity, the question arises as to whether it is preferable to use (1) few records rotated to multiple orientations, (2) many records, each at a random incident angle, or (3) some combination of the two. To this purpose, we subjected several single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems and one plan‐asymmetric multi‐degree‐of‐freedom structure to a pulsive and a non‐pulsive set of ground motions using different combinations of record set size and incident angle rotations. In all cases, the natural record‐to‐record variability of the (unrotated) waveforms clearly outweighed the influence of the record orientation. In addition, the choice of an intensity measure that utilizes the geometric mean of spectral accelerations in both horizontal axes at one or more periods of vibration was found to further enhance this difference, essentially nullifying the already small effect of the incident angle. In all cases, spending any significant proportion of the limited number of dynamic analyses to incorporate the effect of incident angle was detrimental to the fidelity of the estimated performance.     

Rock physics model for seismic velocity & fluid substitution in sub-resolution interbedded sand–shale sequences

The measured geophysical response of sand – shale sequences is an average over multiple layers when the tool resolution (seismic or well log) is coarser than the scale of sand – shale mixing. Shale can be found within sand – shale sequences as laminations, dispersed in sand pores, as well as load bearing clasts. We present a rock physics framework to model seismic/sonic properties of sub-resolution interbedded shaly sands using the so-called solid and mineral substitution models. This modelling approach stays consistent with the conceptual model of the Thomas–Stieber approach for estimating volumetric properties of shaly sands; thus, this work connects established well log data-based petrophysical workflows with quantitative interpretation of seismic data for modelling hydrocarbon signature in sand – shale sequences. We present applications of the new model to infer thickness of sand – shale lamination (i.e., net to gross) and other volumetric properties using seismic data. Another application of the new approach is fluid substitution in sub-resolution interbedded sand–shale sequences that operate directly at the measurement scale without the need to downscale; such a procedure has many practical advantages over the approach of “first-downscale-and-then-upscale” as it is not very sensitive to errors in estimated sand fraction and end member sand/shale properties and remains stable at small sand/shale fractions.     

An approximation to the P-wave reflection coefficient for amplitude variation with long-offset seismic data

近年来,长偏移距排列逐渐被大量应用到海上勘探。传统AVO分析都是小入射角,对于长偏移距数据来说有很大不足。为了探讨拓宽AVO分析的研究范围,本文推导了长偏移距时P波反射系数的一种近似公式,并讨论了其精确性。本文的结果和广泛应用的Shuey公式相类似,Shuey公式可以看作本文结果在小入射角情况的简化。     

How is collapse risk of RC buildings affected by the angle of seismic incidence?

Despite the undeniable influence of the angle of seismic incidence on seismic demand, limited research has been performed to determine its effect when assessing the probabilistic seismic performance of a structure. Since the ground motion group size has a well-known significant effect on the variability of collapse risk, the joint effect of both the ground motion group size and the angle of seismic incidence on the estimation of collapse risk is investigated. Results show that the two variables have a different effect on the collapse risk estimates, with one affecting the bias in the expected value of the estimates and the other their variability. In order to ensure acceptable levels of variability and bias, practical proposals are made regarding the minimum number of records and angles of seismic incidence that should be considered.     

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory—part I: the area source model

The seismic zoning map of Turkey that is used in connection with the national seismic design code (versions issued both in 1997 and 2007) is based on a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted more than 20 years ago (Gülkan et al. in En son verilere göre haz?rlanan Türkiye deprem bölgeleri haritas?, Report No: METU/EERC 93-1, 1993). In line with the efforts for the update of the seismic design code, the need aroused for an updated seismic hazard map, incorporating recent data and state-of-the-art methodologies and providing ground motion parameters required for the construction of the design spectra stipulated by the new Turkish Earthquake Design Code. Supported by AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Turkey), a project has been conducted for the country scale assessment of the seismic hazard by probabilistic methods. The present paper describes the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted in connection with this project, incorporating in an area source model, all recently compiled data on seismicity and active faulting, and using a set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations, for both active shallow crustal and subduction regimes, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region. The area sources delineated in the model are fully parameterized in terms of maximum magnitude, depth distribution, predominant strike and dip angles and mechanism of possible ruptures. Resulting ground motion distributions are quantified and presented for PGA and 5 % damped spectral accelerations at T = 0.2 and 1.0 s, associated with return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The full set of seismic hazard curves was also made available for the hazard computation sites. The second part of the study, which is based on a fault source and smoothed seismicity model is covered in Demircioglu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng, (2016).     

A simplified 3 D.O.F. model of A FEM model for seismic analysis of a silo containing elastic material accounting for soil–structure interaction

The purpose of this study is the evaluation of dynamic behavior induced by seismic activity on a silo system, containing bulk material, with a soil foundation. The interaction effects between the silo and bulk material, as well as the effects produced between the foundation of the silo and the soil, were taken into account. Proposed simplified approximation, as well as the finite model, were used for analysis. The results, from the presented approximation, were compared with a more rigorous obtainment method. Initially, the produced simplified approximation, with elastic material assumption for the grain, could determine the pressures on the dynamic material along with displacements along the height of the silo wall and base shear force, etc., with remarkable precision. Some comparisons, via a change of soil and/or foundation conditions, were also made regarding the seismic pressure of the dynamic material pressure, displacement and base shear forces for both squat and slender silos. Comparing the analytical predictions to results from the numerical simulations produced good results. It can be concluded that the model can be used effectively to perform a broad suite of parametric studies, not only at the design stage but also as a reliable tool for predicting system behavior under the limit state of the system. The results and comprehensive analysis show that displacement effects and base shear forces generally decreased when soil was softer; however, soil structure interaction (SSI) did not have any considerable effects on squat silos and therefore need not be taken into practice.     

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory: part II—fault source and background seismicity model

Over the years, several local and regional seismic hazard studies have been conducted for the estimation of the seismic hazard in Turkey using different statistical processing tools for instrumental and historical earthquake data and modeling the geologic and tectonic characteristics of the region. Recently developed techniques, increased knowledge and improved databases brought the necessity to review the national active fault database and the compiled earthquake catalogue for the development of a national earthquake hazard map. A national earthquake strategy and action plan were conceived and accordingly with the collaboration of the several institutions and expert researchers, the Revision of Turkish Seismic Hazard Map Project (UDAP-Ç-13-06) was initiated, and finalized at the end of 2014. The scope of the project was confined to the revision of current national seismic hazard map, using the state of the art technologies and knowledge of the active fault, earthquake database, and ground motion prediction equations. The following two seismic source zonation models are developed for the probabilistic earthquake hazard analysis: (1) Area source model, (2) Fault and spatial smoothing seismic source model (FSBCK). In this study, we focus on the development and the characterization of the Fault Source model, the background spatially smoothed seismicity model and intrinsic uncertainty on the earthquake occurrence-rates-estimation. Finally, PSHA results obtained from the fault and spatial smoothed seismic source model are presented for 43, 72, 475 and 2475 years return periods (corresponding to 69, 50, 10, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) for PGA and 5% damped spectral accelerations at 0.2 and 1.0 s.     

A critique of the UK’s JNCC seismic survey guidelines for minimising acoustic disturbance to marine mammals: Best practise?

The United Kingdom’s statutory conservation agency, the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC), developed guidelines in 1995 to minimise acoustic disturbance of marine mammals by oil and gas industry seismic surveys. These were the first national guidelines to be developed and have subsequently become the standard, or basis, of international mitigation measures for noise pollution during seismic surveys. However, relatively few aspects of these measures have a firm scientific basis or proven efficacy. Existing guidelines do not offer adequate protection to marine mammals, given the complex propagation of airgun pulses; the difficulty of monitoring in particular the smaller, cryptic, and/or deep-diving species, such as beaked whales and porpoises; limitations in monitoring requirements; lack of baseline data; and other biological and acoustical complications or unknowns. Current guidelines offer a ‘common sense’ approach to noise mitigation, but in light of recent research and ongoing concerns, they should be updated, with broader measures needed to ensure adequate species protection and to address data gaps.     

A model for the magmatic–hydrothermal system at Mount Rainier,Washington, from seismic and geochemical observations

 Mount Rainier is one of the most seismically active volcanoes in the Cascade Range, with an average of one to two high-frequency volcano-tectonic (or VT) earthquakes occurring directly beneath the summit in a given month. Despite this level of seismicity, little is known about its cause. The VT earthquakes occur at a steady rate in several clusters below the inferred base of the Quaternary volcanic edifice. More than half of 18 focal mechanisms determined for these events are normal, and most stress axes deviate significantly from the regional stress field. We argue that these characteristics are most consistent with earthquakes in response to processes associated with circulation of fluids and magmatic gases within and below the base of the edifice.Circulation of these fluids and gases has weakened rock and reduced effective stress to the point that gravity-induced brittle fracture, due to the weight of the overlying edifice, can occur. Results from seismic tomography and rock, water, and gas geochemistry studies support this interpretation. We combine constraints from these studies into a model for the magmatic system that includes a large volume of hot rock (temperatures greater than the brittle–ductile transition) with small pockets of melt and/or hot fluids at depths of 8–18 km below the summit. We infer that fluids and heat from this volume reach the edifice via a narrow conduit, resulting in fumarolic activity at the summit, hydrothermal alteration of the edifice, and seismicity. Received: 10 February 1999 / Accepted: 26 June 1999     

A model for the seismic analysis of a periodic viaduct when considering the pile–soil–structure interaction

In this study, a new model is developed for the aseismic design of a periodic viaduct when the pile–soil–structure interaction is considered. To account for the influence of the pile–soil–structure interaction, a wavenumber domain boundary element method (WDBEM) model for the periodic pile row supporting the viaduct is developed using the sequence Fourier transform as well as the boundary element method for the elastic medium. By using the WDBEM model for the pile row, the transfer matrices for the beams and piers, the joint conditions at the beam–beam–pier (BBP) junction as well as the periodicity condition for the viaduct, the wavenumber domain response of the periodic viaduct to spatially harmonic waves is determined. Based on the wavenumber domain response of the viaduct, the space-domain response of the viaduct to an arbitrary seismic wave can be obtained by invoking the inverse sequence Fourier transform method. Numerical results show that when the periodic viaduct is exposed to the spatially harmonic wave, resonances may occur at the bounding frequencies of the passbands of the characteristic waves of the viaduct. Also, it is found that the coincidence between the traveling seismic wave and characteristic waves of the viaduct will generate additional resonant frequencies located in passbands of the characteristic waves.     

Incorporating intensity bounds for assessing the seismic safety of structures: Does it matter?

The closed‐form solution for assessing the proportion of the mean annual frequency of limit‐state exceedance as a function of integration limits is introduced, in order to study whether or not the mean annual frequency of limit‐state exceedance is overestimated if the lower and(or) upper integration limit of the risk equation are(is) not selected in a physically consistent manner. Simple formulas for assessing the threshold value of the lower and upper integration limits are also derived. These formulas can be used to quickly assess the significant range of ground motion intensity that affects the mean annual frequency of limit‐state exceedance. It is shown that the threshold values of the integration limits depend on the median intensity causing a limit‐state, the corresponding dispersion and the slope of the hazard curve in the log domain. For several reinforced concrete buildings located in a region with moderate seismicity, it is demonstrated that the mean annual frequency of collapse can be significantly overestimated when assessed by integrating the risk equation over the entire range of ground motion intensity. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can satellite land surface temperature data be used similarly to river discharge measurements for distributed hydrological model calibration?

Abstract

A new methodology is proposed for the calibration of distributed hydrological models at the basin scale by constraining an internal model variable using satellite data of land surface temperature (LST). The model algorithm solves the system of energy and mass balances in terms of a representative equilibrium temperature that governs the fluxes of energy and mass over the basin domain. This equilibrium surface temperature, which is a critical model state variable, is compared to operational satellite LST, while calibrating soil hydraulic parameters and vegetation variables differently in each pixel, minimizing the errors. This procedure is compared to the traditional calibration using only discharge measurements. The distributed energy water balance model, Flash-flood Event-based Spatially-distributed rainfall–runoff Transformation – Energy Water Balance model (FEST-EWB), is used to test this approach. This methodology is applied to the Upper Yangtze River basin (China) using MODIS LST retrieved from satellite data in the framework of the NRSCC-ESA DRAGON-2 Programme. The calibration procedure based on LST seems to outperform the calibration based on discharge, with lower relative error and higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index on cumulated volume.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

A class-oriented mechanical approach for seismic damage assessment of RC buildings subjected to the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake

The simplified mechanical method POST (PushOver on Shear Type models) for seismic vulnerability assessment of RC buildings is used in this study to derive damage scenarios for a database of 7597 RC buildings subjected to the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. POST allows the evaluation of fragility curves through the determination of the non-linear static response of RC buildings in closed form, assuming the hypothesis of shear type behaviour, and considering the influence of infill panels both in the derivation of structural response and in assessment of building damage, which is defined according to the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98. The aim of the present study is to provide a much more significant and reliable validation of the methodology, thanks to a much wider database compared to previous studies, and based on a different application of the methodology, i.e. at building class-level instead of single building-level. To this aim, the main geometrical-typological characteristics of the analysed buildings (number of storeys, age of construction, building area) have been statistically characterized based on data collected from post-earthquake AeDES survey forms, considering both the variability of each single parameter and the correlation that exists between one parameter and the other. This also allows to analyse the effectiveness of the adopted analytical procedure in predicting the general trends of observed damage with these parameters, showing a good agreement between observed and predicted trends. The overall predicted damage scenarios are compared with the corresponding observed ones, collected from AeDES survey forms, highlighting, again, a good agreement. Finally, the assumed mechanical interpretation of damage classification of EMS-98 is validated through the comparison between the distributions of damage to vertical structures and infill panels and the corresponding observed post-earthquake damage data.     

How does forest structure affect root reinforcement and susceptibility to shallow landslides?

Forests can decrease the risk of shallow landslides by mechanically reinforcing the soil and positively influencing its water balance. However, little is known about the effect of different forest structures on slope stability. In the study area in St Antönien, Switzerland, we applied statistical prediction models and a physically‐based model for spatial distribution of root reinforcement in order to quantify the influence of forest structure on slope stability. We designed a generalized linear regression model and a random forest model including variables describing forest structure along with terrain parameters for a set of landslide and control points facing similar slope angle and tree coverage. The root distribution measured at regular distances from seven trees in the same study area was used to calibrate a root distribution model. The root reinforcement was calculated as a function of tree dimension and distance from tree with the root bundle model (RBMw). Based on the modelled values of root reinforcement, we introduced a proxy‐variable for root reinforcement of the nearest tree using a gamma distribution. The results of the statistical analysis show that variables related to forest structure significantly influence landslide susceptibility along with terrain parameters. Significant effects were found for gap length, the distance to the nearest trees and the proxy‐variable for root reinforcement of the nearest tree. Gaps longer than 20 m critically increased the susceptibility to landslides. Root reinforcement decreased with increasing distance from trees and is smaller in landslide plots compared to control plots. Furthermore, the influence of forest structure strongly depends on geomorphological and hydrological conditions. Our results enhance the quantitative knowledge about the influence of forest structure on root reinforcement and landslide susceptibility and support existing management recommendations for protection against gravitational natural hazards. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Time‐lapse seismic imaging using regularized full‐waveform inversion with a prior model: which strategy?

Full‐waveform inversion is an appealing technique for time‐lapse imaging, especially when prior model information is included into the inversion workflow. Once the baseline reconstruction is achieved, several strategies can be used to assess the physical parameter changes, such as parallel difference (two separate inversions of baseline and monitor data sets), sequential difference (inversion of the monitor data set starting from the recovered baseline model) and double‐difference (inversion of the difference data starting from the recovered baseline model) strategies. Using synthetic Marmousi data sets, we investigate which strategy should be adopted to obtain more robust and more accurate time‐lapse velocity changes in noise‐free and noisy environments. This synthetic application demonstrates that the double‐difference strategy provides the more robust time‐lapse result. In addition, we propose a target‐oriented time‐lapse imaging using regularized full‐waveform inversion including a prior model and model weighting, if the prior information exists on the location of expected variations. This scheme applies strong prior model constraints outside of the expected areas of time‐lapse changes and relatively less prior constraints in the time‐lapse target zones. In application of this process to the Marmousi model data set, the local resolution analysis performed with spike tests shows that the target‐oriented inversion prevents the occurrence of artefacts outside the target areas, which could contaminate and compromise the reconstruction of the effective time‐lapse changes, especially when using the sequential difference strategy. In a strongly noisy case, the target‐oriented prior model weighting ensures the same behaviour for both time‐lapse strategies, the double‐difference and the sequential difference strategies and leads to a more robust reconstruction of the weak time‐lapse changes. The double‐difference strategy can deliver more accurate time‐lapse variation since it can focus to invert the difference data. However, the double‐difference strategy requires a preprocessing step on data sets such as time‐lapse binning to have a similar source/receiver location between two surveys, while the sequential difference needs less this requirement. If we have prior information about the area of changes, the target‐oriented sequential difference strategy can be an alternative and can provide the same robust result as the double‐difference strategy.     

How to estimate isotope fractionations of a Rayleigh-like but diffusion-limited disequilibrium process?

The Rayleigh distillation isotope fractionation(RDIF) model is one of the most popular methods used in isotope geochemistry. Numerous isotope signals observed in geologic processes have been interpreted with this model. The RDIF model provides a simple mathematic solution for the reservoir-limited equilibrium isotope fractionation effect. Due to the reservoir effect, tremendously large isotope fractionations will always be produced if the reservoir is close to being depleted. However, in real si...     

How useful is the Waldmeier effect for prediction of a sunspot cycle?

Waldmeier effect [Waldmeier M., 1955. Ergebnisse und Probleme der Sonnenforschung. Second Ed., Leipzig, p. 154] states that the rise-time of a cycle depends upon a single parameter, namely the sunspot number Rz(max) at the maximum. Strong cycles have a steeper rise, while moderate cycles rise more slowly. In this paper, using the past data for sunspot cycles 1–23, these aspects are re-examined. It was noticed that the inverse relationship between Rz(max) and rise-time is discernable only when average patterns obtained by superposition of several cycles (separately for strong and weak cycles) are compared. In individual cycles, considerable deviations from the average patterns can occur (several tens of units of Rz and several months of rise-time). For a study of the relationship of Rz(max) with features in the early part of a cycle, the features chosen were Ro (i.e., Rz(min)) and Rz values Ra, Rb, and Rc, 12, 24 and 36 months, respectively, later than Ro (only 12-monthly running means were used). Ro had a moderate correlation (<0.6) with Rz(max), but Ra, Rb, Rc had better correlations. For hindsight predictions for cycles 18–23, the predictions for cycle 19 was grossly erroneous (observed value almost double of the predicted value). For other cycles, the errors were within 25%. For cycle 24, the Rz monthly values up to March 2008 give 12-month running means centered in June, July, August, September 2007 as 7.6, 6.5, 5.8, 6.1. Thus, though we cannot be absolutely sure yet that Rz(min) for cycle 24 has occurred, a tentative, provisional prediction using Rz(min) (i.e., Ro) as 5.8 is Rz(max)=113±19, i.e., in the range 94–132. This is an upper limit, as Ro value may reduce further in coming months, but most probably not very much. For Ro=5.0, the prediction would be Rz(max)= 109±17, while in the extreme hypothetical case of Ro=0.0, the prediction would be Rz(max)=79±14.