基于夜间灯光与土地利用数据的山东省乡镇级人口数据空间化

格网化人口数据能够刻画实际人口空间分布状况,是实现人口数据更好地与自然、社会、经济等要素融合分析的有效途径。本文面向精细尺度格网人口数据的需求,以中国东部人口稠密的山东省为例,基于乡镇级人口统计数据,研究了结合夜间灯光和土地利用数据的空间化方法。其中以EVI修正DMSP/OLS夜间灯光数据来增加城镇用地内部人口分布的差异性,以城乡二级分区方法避免夜间灯光数据在农村低辐射亮度区模拟人口的缺点,提高了建模精度。利用其余地区的人口统计值检验建模精度,结果有78%的行政单元的相对误差绝对值小于20%。最终在2000年首次公布的乡镇级人口统计数据的基础上,生成了山东省100 m格网人口分布数据SDpop2000。通过与精度较高的全球WorldPop人口数据产品对比可见,SDpop2000和WorldPop在10 km网格尺度上的相关性系数高达0.93;SDpop2000在鲁中部、泰安西南部、济宁南部、临沂南部、枣庄北部和鲁北沿海等地的人口分布明显比WorldPop更准确;且SDpop2000较好地刻画了山东省在鲁西、鲁北平原区的人口较鲁中南山地丘陵区、鲁北沿海和山东半岛丘陵区的人口更为稠密的人口分布趋势。本文构建的基于DMSP/OLS与土地利用的乡镇级人口数据空间化方法明显提高了空间化精度,适用于乡镇尺度的人口精细模拟。     

The Interaction of Population,Industry and Land in Process of Urbanization in China: A Case Study in Jilin Province

Urbanization is a complex process that covers a wide range of topics, of which population, industry and land urbanization are three important aspects. Jilin Province is an important agricultural province in China. The contradiction between population, industry and land urbanization is especially prominent here, and its coupling development is of great practical significance. In this paper, the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province in 1990, 2000 and 2010 is measured by coupling mode. The spatial pattern of the coupling degree is analyzed by trend surface analysis and global and local spatial autocorrelation. The influence factors and their spatial differentiation are discussed using multiple linear regression (MLR) model and geographic weighted regression (GWR) model. The results show that: 1) the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province is at a low level. Judging from the change of time scale, the urbanization of most research units is becoming more and more coordinated. From the comparison of spatial scales, there is significant spatial difference in the research units of different administrative levels. 2) Judging from the global change trend, the coupling degree of population-industry-land urbanization in the central region is higher than that in western and eastern regions. The coordination of urbanization in the central region is relatively good, and the distribution of the cold and hot spots is basically the same as that overall. 3) The spatial pattern of the coupling degree is related to the cold and hot spot distribution of the influence coefficient of urban population density and per capita urban construction land. The variation of the coupling degree spatial pattern is synchronous with the spatial change of the urban population density influence coefficient. 4) The degree of agglomeration of the urban population is the main factor promoting the coupling pattern of population-industry-land urbanization in Jilin Province, and the extent of its influence is gradually increasing. In addition, the level of city administrative, the efficiency of urban expansion and the capacity of market consumption also have an important influence on the coupling pattern.     

基于多源数据的中国海岸带地区人口空间化模拟

海岸带人口聚集、经济增长迅速、生态环境脆弱,容易受到自然灾害的影响,细致的人口空间分布信息对解决海岸带地区资源配置、灾害风险管理等有重要意义。本文以中国沿海城市为研究区,基于NPP-VIIRS和NDVI数据构建人居指数HSI,并加入居住地面积比例系数反映人口内部差异,利用样本动态分区及建模方法,得到2015年中国海岸带1000 m格网人口分布数据（POP）,并将其与已公布的相同年份的中国公里格网人口数据（TPOP）和100 m全球人口数据（WorldPOP）进行对比分析。研究表明,3种数据均能反映中国海岸带地区人口的宏观分布特征,但是对于人口分布城乡差异特征以及城市内部人口分布细节特征的刻画,则是以POP数据最为理想。由县域统计值和POP数据可知,主要受沿海地貌、国家及区域经济发展战略等的影响,中国海岸带地区人口分布具有明显的空间差异,具体来说：① 地形差异,山地和滩涂区域的人口密度普遍较低（小于5 人/hm ²）,而平原和河口三角洲区域的人口密度则普遍较高（大于10 人/hm ²）;② 宏观区域差异,环渤海、长江三角洲和珠江三角洲是人口分布最密集的区域（大于25 人/hm ²）;长江以北地区人口分布多层级重心离散分布的特征较为显著,尤其以山东和江苏最为明显,长江以南地区人口分布相对比较集中,主要集中在沿海低地和平原,如浙江—福建—广东一带;③ 城乡差异,由各级城镇向乡村区域递减的趋势非常明显,城市等级越高,人口分布的梯度特征越显著,中心城区、城市近郊、城市远郊之间相比人口密度差异巨大。     

Land-use change and socio-economic driving forces of rural settlement in China from 1996 to 2005

While urbanization has accelerated, the rural population in China has started decreasing in recent years. However, the expan- sion of rural settlement has not been sufficiently curbed. The questions of why this has happened and who has driven the land-use change （LUC） of rural settlement in China have aroused great interests among researchers. In this paper, it is suggested that population is not always a positive driving force for the LUC of rural settlement in China. Furthermore, socio-economic driving forces other than urbanization, population and industrialization are analyzed. On a national scale, the major driving forces are the per-capita rural housing area and the cultivated land area. On a regional scale, the main driving forces in the eastern China are the house-building capacity of rural households and the per-capita rural housing area; while in the central China, the main driving forces are rural housing investment, the proportion of primary industry employees in the rural working population, and the cultivated land area. For the western China, the main driving forces are rural register population and cultivated land area.     

Spatio-temporal dynamic patterns of rural area development in eastern coastal China

The aim of this study is to evaluate the current state of rural area development at the county level in the eastern coastal China. An evaluation index system including 18 factors was developed, and a rural development index (RDI) was constructed to evaluate rural development state in 2000, 2004, and 2008. The quantitative evaluation indicated the following results. 1) This study derived four dominating components by means of principal component analysis, which can explain 78.2% of the total information, namely agricultural production input, the basic condition of agriculture, the comparative effectiveness of grain production, and the household′s own basic conditions. 2) Since the turn of the new millennium, the rural area in the eastern coastal China has experienced a rapid development in general. Well developed, developed, moderately developed and undeveloped rural areas respectively occupied 29.32%, 22.33%, 21.91%, and 10.51% in 2008. 3) The countryside had maintained a sound momentum of developing trend between 2000 and 2008, while the rural development in the eastern coastal China lacked sustainability. And 4) industrialization, urbanization, original economic basis, and location are four major driving forces of the disparity of rural area development in the eastern coastal China. Given these results, the strategies and policies for the improvement of each rural group were put forward.     

Land use regionalization of rural settlements in China

This paper compartmentalizes regional land use of rural settlements in China by employing a hierarchical clustering method.The statistic data are sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics of China(NBSC) and the data of land use change from the Ministry of Land and Resources of China(MLRC).The population of rural settlement decreases from the southeast to the northwest of China and the density of rural settlement decreases from the east to the west of China.Land-use scale of rural settlement,the proportion of one-storey houses and the average household area decrease from the north to the south of China.The ratio of area of cultivated land to rural settlement is high in the northeast and southwest of China but low in the southeast of China.The land use regionalization of rural settlement can be divided into four regions,namely:the northern region of China,Qinghai-Tibet,Yunnan-Guizhou,and the middle and eastern region of China.The northern region of China and the middle and eastern region of China can be further divided into nine sub-regions:Xinjiang,Northeast China,Ningxia and Inner Mongolia,North China,the south of the Changjiang(Yantze) River and Sichuan Basin,Jiangsu-Shanghai,South China,the Loess Plateau,and Guangxi.In consideration of the significant regional differences,it is proposed that different policies should be implemented regarding the utilization and management of rural settlements.     

内蒙古自治区人居环境综合适宜性评价及空间优化

科学评价区域人居环境适宜性,是开展国土空间开发适宜性评价的前提,对提高区域资源环境承载能力,促进人与自然和谐发展至关重要。本文以内蒙古自治区为案例,基于栅格尺度从自然与人文2个方面对人居环境适宜性进行评价;将适宜性因子作为城乡建设用地扩展的限制条件,采用MCR模型对城乡建设用地进行模拟,提出区域人居环境空间优化方案,主要结论有：水文与气候条件对内蒙古自治区人居环境的整体限制作用较强;内蒙古自治区人居环境临界适宜与不适宜区占比最高,达到52.8%;高度适宜区占比最低为9%,主要分布在前套平原及西辽河平原,全区人居环境适宜性水平整体偏低。内蒙古自治区城乡建设用地人居环境比较适宜与高度适宜区占绝对优势,适宜比例超过73%,从适宜性空间分布来看,南部整体优于北部,东部整体优于西部,地带性特征明显。内蒙古自治区城乡人居环境不适宜与临界适宜主要表现为自然条件不适宜及对自然保护区的不合理占用。内蒙古自治区城乡建设用地模拟结果显示远期呼包地区一体化连片趋势明显,内蒙古自治区可逐步形成以呼包鄂都市区、赤通都市区为主体,以文化特色鲜明、公共设施完善的中心城镇及中心乡村为依托,以人居环境不适宜区为间隔,城乡...     

Social polarization and segregation in Beijing

I INTRODUCTIONIt is a popular belief that in socialist countries thereis less socio-spatial disparity than was present in the...past or in comparison with western countries(FRENCHet al., 1979) However, a new urban phenomenon social polarization and spatial segregation --has takenplace in Beijing since the implementation of the economic reforms and open-door policy in 1978, especiallywith the introduction of urban reforms in 1984 o. We.can summarize the urban reform in two points: the f…     

城市社区养老设施配置空间均衡研究

我国人口老龄化增速势头不减,存在养老服务业发展不平衡、老龄服务供给不足的矛盾。北京是较早进入老龄化的城市,提出了以居家为主的“9064”养老模式以解决养老资源缺口问题。为促进社区养老服务供给的便利化,提高老年群体对养老服务的“获得感”,本文以北京市海淀区老年人口密度较大的17个街道为研究区,采用百度POI、小区户数、高德地图和遥感影像等多源数据,对老年人口统计数据进行空间网格化,比较国家、省（市）社区养老设施的服务半径及调查所得老年人日常出行特征,引入北京市居住公共服务设施配置指标作为评价标准,应用改进型两步移动搜索算法并构建空间均衡系数,从服务覆盖率、供需比和医疗资源易获性3个方面对社区养老设施进行空间均衡研究。结果表明,研究区内社区养老驿站的数量仍有不足,不同半径下的服务覆盖率和供需比差异显著,500 m半径内的覆盖率仅为23.3%,空间分布不合理是超八成社区养老驿站供需比偏低的主要原因,基层社区卫生机构对医疗资源的易获性有积极作用;社区养老服务发展不均衡,需要进一步优化配置。     

ON SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHANGES OF PRESENT URBAN POPULATION IN CHINA

Since 1949, great changes have taken place in the amount and distribution of China's urban population. From the analysis on the change in total urban population, it can be learnt that urbanization progress can be controlled mainly by social-economic development and government policy through influencing the migratory growth of urban population and the number of organic cities. In the period 1949-1990, the states of megalopolises had gone up; medium-sized cities had decreased. It is estimated that the total urban population of China will still increase at a rapid speed in the coming 10 years; there will not be great changes in grade system of urban scale; and urban population may shows a tendency to move to coastal area.     

ON THE SUBURBANIZATION OF BEIJING

SubUrbanizationisastageofurbanizationprocess.Itmeansthatpopulation,jobsandservicetradesdecentralizefrominnercitytosuburbanarea.SuburbanizationhasgreatlychangedtheeconomicandUrbandevelopmentinthedevelopedcountries.NOw,thefocalpointisWhethersuburbanizationinChina,asadevelOPingcountry,hasactuallybegun?Whendiditstartandwhatisthemechanisminprocess.ThispaperisapreliminalycasestudyofBeijing.I.~L~coxczviofaSUING~POLl~PeterHall's(1984)modelofurbanchangeofferedaframeworkthatcaneasilyidentifyOT…     

基于边界替代的人口数据空间化方法研究

首先将山东省各县市按级别分类,利用回归方法得到不同级别县市的城镇居住密度与农村居住密度,然后根据乡镇驻地位置,构造Voronoi图来替代乡镇边界。在此基础上利用各乡镇人口数据与居民点数据计算得到各 Voronoi图形的居住密度,并将该密度赋予每个图形的发生点(即乡镇驻地位置),而后利用反距离插值算法,并结合窗口移动平均处理,得到全省的居住密度分布图。使用居住密度分布图和居民点分布数据,计算人口分布数据。并根据每个县市的图上汇总人口和统计人口,计算得到各县市的调整系数,使用该系数对每个栅格的人口数进行调整,保证了各县市总人口不会出现误差。最终得到山东省1km×1km栅格的人口分布数据。最后选取某些样本县, 在样本县内对比每个乡镇图上的人口与实际统计人口,结果表明该人口分布数据有较高的精度。     

西安市城市边缘区空间识别与边界划分

城市边缘区研究的首要任务是对城市边缘区进行空间识别和边界划分。针对现有研究存在的指标选取过于单一或繁杂、水陆分离导致划分间断等问题,利用西安市SPOT-5、Landsat TM遥感影像和社会统计数据,分别从物理、景观、人口3个视角出发,选定不透水面盖度与景观絮乱度作为主要判别指标,人口密度作为辅助指标,构建城市边缘区识别指标体系。运用信息熵法和突变检测法,量化并可视化西安市城市边缘区的空间范围。结果表明：① 所选取指标沿着城乡梯度表现出独特的空间信息,根据指标的城乡空间异质性特征可以识别出城市边缘区的空间范围,且方法更科学,界定结果更精确。② 西安市呈现出明显的城市核心区、城市边缘区、农村腹地的圈层结构特征。道路牵引与政策调控对城市边缘区的空间分布有重要影响。本研究可为城市边缘区其他相关研究提供科学参考和依据。     

北京城市增长边界预测

为了遏制北京”摊大饼”式的城市发展模式,促进土地资源的集约、高效利用,引导国土空间合理布局,划定北京城市增长边界成为重要举措。本研究从城市内生发展动力角度,将遗传神经网络嵌入CA模型,建立北京城市增长边界预测模型,选定了自然、人口经济、区位、邻域、土地利用类型和政策规划6类因素共18个影响因子,预测北京市城市增长弹性边界。同时,从土地自身生态承载能力角度,用建设用地适宜性评价方法,选定了地形、地貌、公园水域、土地利用现状、自然保护区、城市用地距离为影响因子,划定北京市城市增长刚性边界。结果表明,利用该模型预测北京市2025年城市增长边界,总的面积匹配值为96%,模型精度较高;2025年北京市弹性增长边界总面积为1738.98 km²,刚性增长边界总面积为3297.01 km²。基于GANN-CA模型的城市增长边界划定方法对确定城市未来扩张方向有指导作用,可为城市规划和发展政策的制定提供依据。     

Evolutionary Pattern and Effect of Administrative Division Adjustment During Urbanization of China: Empirical Analysis on Multiple Scales

The adjustment of administrative divisions is one of the important factors guiding China’s urbanization, which has profound economic and social effects for regional development. In this paper, we comprehensively describe the process of the adjustment of administrative divisions at provincial and municipal levels in China and summarize the effects on the basic structure and patterns of the spatial development. We quantitatively assess the effects on fields such as urbanization and social economy through the use of multidimensional scaling. The results show that: 1) Upgrading county to municipality (or city-governed district) is the main way of adjusting the administrative divisions. It is also an important factor in the spatial differentiation of interprovincial urbanization. China’s population urbanization can be divided into four patterns including interprovincial migration, provincial migration, natural growth, and growth caused by the adjustment of administrative divisions, which is also the main reason for the increased Chinese urbanization rate at the provincial level. 2) Taking the city of Beijing as an example, we generalize five adjustment patterns made to administrative divisions: the set-up of sub-districts, the set-up of regional offices, the upgrading of townships to sub-districts, the upgrading of townships to towns, and the set-up of towns and the addition of new regional offices. We summarize the municipal urban spatial structure, including the sub-district office area in the central urban area, the regional office area in the new urban area, the mixed area of villages, towns, and sub-district offices in the suburb area, and the township area in the outer suburb area. 3) The adjustment of administrative divisions triggers a significant circulative accumulation effect, resulting in the spatial locking of population and industrial agglomeration. It affects the evolution of the urban spatial form and plays an important role in shaping the urban spatial structure to move to the characteristic of multicenter. In general, the adjustment of administrative divisions was an important factor affecting the inflated statistical level of urbanization and also an important driving force for the evolution of Chinese urban spatial organization structure.     

非首都功能疏解背景下北京市人口空间分布形态模拟

本文以北京市2005年和2010年公里网格人口分布数据为基础,运用CA-Markov模型模拟了北京市2015、2020、2025和2030年4期公里网格人口分布数据集;应用街道尺度的人口数据对模拟精度进行了验证;在模型可靠性良好的基础上,从产业疏解推动人口疏解的角度出发,结合北京市各街道各产业从业人口数据、产业疏解方向和中心城区人口疏解目标,确定了北京市各街道人口疏解的权重,并由此预测了2020年北京市中心城区人口疏解15%后的人口空间分布情况。研究表明： ① 2005-2010年,北京市约90%的公里网格人口密度等级为1级,集中在密云区、怀柔区、延庆区和房山区,而人口密度在10级以上的区域集中在西城区和东城区;② 在无人口疏解政策影响下,2015-2030年北京市公里网格人口分布呈现出低人口密度区域减少、中高人口密度区域增加的态势;③ 在人口疏解政策影响下,至2020年,中心城区人口分布从集中于中高密度等级转向集中于中低人口密度等级。中心城区最高人口密度等级的数值呈下降态势,并且高人口密度等级的区域占比也呈下降态势。除东城区外,其余5个中心城区的人口集中于人口密度等级为5-8级的区域。本文的研究成果可为人口管理、资源配置和政策制定提供科学参考。     

Using impervious surfaces to detect urban expansion in Beijing of China in 2000s

The change of impervious surface area(ISA) can effectively reveal the gradual process of urbanization and act as a key index for monitoring urban expansion. Experiencing rapid growth of the built environment in the 2000 s, urban expansion of Beijing has not been fully characterized through ISA. In this study, Landsat TM images of Beijing in 2001 and 2009 were obtained, and the eight-year urban expansion process in Beijing was analyzed using the ISA extracted by means of the vegetation-imperious surface-soil(V-I-S) model. From the spatial variation in ISA, the ring structure of urban expansion in Beijing was significant during the study period, with decreasing urban density from the city center to the periphery. In the ring road analysis, the most dramatic changes of ISA were found between the fifth ring and the sixth ring. This area has experienced the most new residential development, and is currently the main source of urban expansion. The typical profile lines revealed the directional characteristics of urban expansion. The east-west profile was the most urbanized axes in Beijing, while ISA change in the east-north profile was more significant than in the other five profiles. Moreover, the transition matrix of ISA levels revealed an increase in urban density in the low density built areas; the Moran′s I index showed a clear expansion of the central urban area, which spread contiguously; and the standard deviational ellipse indicated the northeast was the dominant direction of urban expansion. These findings can provide important spatial control guidelines in the next round of national economic and social development planning, overall urban and rural planning, and land use planning.     

Evaluation of role of Home Market Effects in China’s manufacturing industries

Under the theoretical framework of the New Trade Theory and the New Economic Geography, Home Market Effects (HMEs) is considered to be important sources of comparative advantage and significant reasons for industry agglomeration. Through the analysis on the input-output tables in China, the paper confirms the existence of HMEs for the manufacturing industries and their export trades on the national and provincial level in China. Several conclusions have been drawn in this study. Firstly, there exist prominent HMEs for manufacturing industries related with nondurable goods and materials in China. Secondly, 10 of the 15 kinds of manufacturing industries considered in this study display the existence of HMEs. Thirdly, the comparative advantage of factor endowment for the export trade of manufacturing industries is declining, while HMEs for them are increasing. Fourthly, among the 30 provincial regions studied in this paper, 11 regions show the existence of HMEs, most of which are located in the eastern coast region. This paper illustrates the simultaneous existence of the comparative advantage of factor endowment and scale economies of HMEs for China’s manufacturing industries. HMEs will not only be the new dynamic for the increase of manufacturing industries and their export trade, but also be the primary power for urban economic growth, industry improvement, and urban space expansion for China.     

基于SRTM数据的广东新一代天气雷达覆盖研究

本文利用SRTM3高分辨率的数字高程模型（DEM）对广东省已建成的12部新一代天气雷达分别进行地形阻挡分析。结果表明,在低仰角（0.5°）的观测结果中,韶关、连州以及肇庆雷达受地形阻挡较严重,深圳、阳江、梅州和汕尾的雷达也有大面积阻挡区域,其余雷达的覆盖效果均很好。随着扫描仰角的抬高,地形对雷达波束的阻挡有所减弱。从第4个仰角 （3.4°）开始,所有雷达均无地形阻挡。在海拔5 km范围内12部雷达可以完全覆盖广东全省,大部分地区至少有4部雷达重叠。离地3 km和海拔3 km的雷达覆盖情况均显示,除广东省北部和西北部极少部分地区没有雷达覆盖外,大部分地区均有2部以上雷达覆盖,珠江三角洲入海口一带甚至有4~6部雷达重叠。在离地2 km范围内,广东省雷达组网能够有效覆盖广东省大部分区域。在离地1 km范围内,广东省北部和西北部雷达覆盖效果不太理想,存在较大的空白区。在离地高度2 km和海拔高度3 km以上,雷达组网基本可以覆盖广东全境,因此可以认为广东省雷达的总体布局较好。     

Suburbanization and subcentering of population in Beijing metropolitan area: A nonparametric analysis

This study focuses on the suburbanization and subcentering of population and examines the nature of spatial restructuring in terms of the population distribution in the Beijing metropolitan area.Instead of the classic density function approach,we employ the nonparametric analysis to characterize the spatial pattern of population densities in the Beijing metropolitan area and identify the suburban subcenters.Our findings suggest that the population has spread with rapid urban growth in the Beijing metropolitan area,and the compact urban form has been replaced by a more dispersed polycentric spatial distribution.However,compared with the decentralization of western cities,the spatial extent of the decentralization of population in the Beijing metropolitan area is quite limited.The rapid growth of population in the near suburbs has expedited the sprawl of the central city,with a larger central agglomeration of population dominating the metropolitan area.In this sense,the spatial pattern of the Beijing metropolitan area is still characterized by the continuous compactness.However,our findings do provide the evidence that the city has been turning to a polycentric structure.We find significant population subcenters have emerged in the suburbs of Beijing since the 1980s.But the polycentricity emerged in the Beijing metropolitan area is very different by nature from that observed in Western cities.The subcenters emerged are adherent to the development scheme planned for the city,so it can be referred to as the so called ’planned polycentricity’.