On the influence of the freshwater supply on the Baltic Sea mean salinity

The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea mean salinity to climatic changes of the freshwater supply is analyzed. The average salinity of the Baltic Sea is about 6‰. The low salinity is an effect of a large net freshwater supply and narrow and shallow connections with the North Sea. As a result of mixing in the entrance area, a large portion of the outflowing Baltic Sea water returns with the inflowing salty water and thus lowers the salinity of the Baltic Sea deep-water considerably. This recycling of the Baltic Sea water is a key process determining the salinity of today's Baltic Sea. The sensitivity of this recycling, and thus of the Baltic Sea salinity, to climatic changes in the freshwater supply is analyzed. A simple model is formulated for the variations of the Baltic Sea freshwater content. Historical data of the freshwater supply and the salinity in the Baltic Sea are used in the model to achieve an empirical expression relating variations of the recycling of Baltic Sea water to the variations of the freshwater supply. The recycling is found to be very sensitive to the freshwater supply. We find that an increase of freshwater supply of 30% is the level above which the Baltic Sea would turn into a lake. Recent climate modeling results suggest that river runoff to the Baltic Sea may increase dramatically in the future and thus possibly put the Baltic Sea into a new state.     

The Baltic Sea environment and the European Union: Analysis of governance barriers

The EU enlargement brought the Baltic Sea into the sphere of EU environmental policymaking, making the sea, with the exception of Russia, an EU inland sea. Yet, the state of the Baltic Sea environment is deteriorating at an alarming pace. This paper describes the evolution of the EU governance of the Baltic Sea environment, focussing on governance barriers. The findings demonstrate how the choice of analytical lens influences the construction of governance barriers and the respective intervention strategies. Such understanding can help policy practitioners in their search for successful measures to improve the governance situation in the Baltic Sea region.     

Geodetic determination of the surface topography of the Baltic Sea

The Baltic Sea Level Project is an international scientific observation program to unify the vertical datums of the countries of the Baltic Sea with GPS measurements. In total, 35 tide gauges on shores and islands of the Baltic were occupied with GPS in 1993. After computing a new gravimetric geoid over the Baltic Sea, it was possible to unify the datums as well as to calculate the orthometric heights and the sea surface topography values for the tide gauge stations. The results obtained are shown.     

Variability of Sea Surface Heights in the Baltic Sea: An Intercomparison of Observations and Model Simulations

Sea level changes in the Baltic Sea are dominated by internal, short-term variations that are mostly caused by the ephemeral nature of atmospheric conditions over the Baltic area. Tides are small and their influence decreases from western parts of the Baltic Sea to the Baltic Proper. Superimposed to the large short-term sea level changes (up to few decimeters from day to day) are seasonal and interannual variations (centimeters to decimeters). This study focuses on the comparison of sea surface heights obtained from observations and from a high resolution oceanographic model of the Baltic Sea. From this comparison, the accuracy of the modeled sea surface variations is evaluated, which is a necessary precondition for the further use of the oceanographic model in geodetic applications. The model reproduces all observed Baltic sea level variations very reliably with an accuracy of 5 to 9 cm (rms) for short-term variations (up to 2 months) and 8 cm (rms) for long-term variations (>2 months). An additional improvement of the model can be attained by including long-period sea level variations of the North Sea. The model performs well also in the case of extreme sea level events, as is shown for a major storm surge that occurred at the southern coast of the Baltic Sea in November 1995.     

Observation of eddy structures in the Baltic Sea with the use of radiolocation and radiometric satellite data

The manifestations of mesoscale and submesoscale eddy elements in surface currents of the Baltic Sea in satellite images differing in physical nature and spatial resolution are considered. The investigation is based on the Envisat ASAR and ERS-2 SAR high-resolution radiolocation images (RLIs) obtained in 2008–2009 for different sites of the Baltic Sea water area and the use of the Envisat MERIS and Landsat ETM+ radiometric images of the visible spectrum. Possible mechanisms of the appearance of eddy structures in RLIs of the Baltic Sea water area are considered. Joint analysis of the mentioned data revealed specific features of the appearance of eddy structures in satellite images, taking into account the variability of optical characteristics of Baltic Sea surface waters during the summer blooming of cyanobacteria and the spring blooming of diatomic algae.     

Distribution of metal concentrations in sediments of the coastal zone of the Gulf of Riga and open part of the Baltic Sea

The comparison of spatial and temporal distribution of Hg, Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni, Zn, Mn and Fe concentrations in sediments from the Gulf of Riga and open Baltic Sea along the coastal zone is presented for the first time. There were considerable differences in Pb, Zn, Mn and Fe levels in sediment at various stations of the Gulf of Riga. A significant difference of Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni, Zn levels was found in sediments of various stations in the open Baltic coast. The amount of Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni, Zn and Fe levels also differed significantly in the sediments of the Gulf of Riga in different years. A considerable yearly difference in amount of Hg, Cd, Pb, Cu, Ni and Mn levels was found in sediments in the open Baltic coast. The essential highest values of Pb and Zn in coastal sediments of the open Baltic Sea are stated in comparison with the Gulf of Riga. The concentrations of other metals have only a tendency to be higher in coastal sediments of the open Baltic Sea in comparison with the Gulf of Riga. Natural and anthropogenic factors were proved to play an important role in determining resultant metals concentrations in the regions.     

Response of the Baltic Sea to climate change—theory and observations

The dynamics controlling the response of the Baltic Sea to changed atmospheric and hydrologic forcing are reviewed and demonstrated using simple models. The response time for salt is 30 times longer than for heat in the Baltic Sea. In the course of a year, the Baltic Sea renews most of its heat but only about 3% of its salt. On the seasonal scale, surface temperature and ice-coverage are controlled by the atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea as demonstrated by e.g. the strong inter-annual variations in winter temperature and ice-coverage due to variations in dominating wind directions causing alternating mild and cold winters. The response of surface temperature and ice-coverage in the Baltic Sea to modest climate change may therefore be predicted using existing statistics. Due to the long response time in combination with complicated dynamics, the response of the salinity of the Baltic Sea cannot be predicted using existing statistics but has to be computed from mechanistic models. Salinity changes primarily through changes in the two major forcing factors: the supply of freshwater and the low-frequency sea level fluctuations in the Kattegat. The sensitivity of Baltic Sea salinity to changed freshwater supply is investigated using a simple mechanistic steady-state model that includes baroclinic geostrophic outflow from the Kattegat, the major dynamical factor controlling the freshwater content in the Kattegat and thereby the salinity of water flowing into the Baltic Sea. The computed sensitivity of Baltic Sea surface salinity to changes of freshwater supply is similar to earlier published estimates from time-dependent dynamical models with higher resolution. According to the model, the Baltic Sea would become fresh at a mean freshwater supply of about 60 000 m³ s⁻¹, i.e. a 300% increase of the contemporary supply. If the freshwater supply in the different basins increased in proportion to the present-day supply, the Bothnian Bay would become fresh already at a freshwater supply of about 37 000 m³ s⁻¹ and the Bothnian Sea at a supply of about 45 000 m³ s⁻¹. The assumption of baroclinic geostrophic outflow from the Kattegat, crucial for the salinity response of the Baltic Sea to changed freshwater supply, is validated using daily salinity profiles for the period 1931–1977 from lightship Läsö Nord.     

Public preferences regarding use and condition of the Baltic Sea—An international comparison informing marine policy

Marine environments and the ecosystem services they provide are threatened throughout the world. Using an extensive data set obtained from a coordinated survey across all nine littoral countries, this study examines the recreational use of and public perceptions towards the Baltic Sea, providing support for marine policies, including the European Union Marine Strategy Framework Directive. The findings indicate that the Baltic Sea is an important recreation area for residents of the littoral states, as the majority of people spend leisure time there. Swedes, Danes and Finns use the sea the most, and the most common activities are beach recreation and swimming. People are concerned over the state of the Baltic Sea, especially in Finland, Russia and Sweden. Poles, Danes and Finns have the most positive attitude towards contributing financially to improving the state of the Baltic Sea. Additional coordinated research efforts across all nine littoral countries are needed to quantify the monetary benefits of improving the state of the sea. However, even the present results provide evidence on the cultural importance of the Baltic Sea, suggesting that policy makers need to take stronger action to sustain the provision of recreational ecosystem services and safeguarding the well-being of marine ecosystems to the current and future generations.     

The impact of salt water inflows on the distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the deep water of the Baltic Sea

Salt-water inflows into the Baltic Sea are important events for renewing the deep and bottom waters of the deep basins of the Baltic Sea. These events occur only at irregular intervals. The last strong event was in January 1993 followed by minor inflows in winter 1993/1994. As a result of these inflows, the deep water of the central Baltic basins was completely renewed.Based on extensive observations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in water, fluffy layer material and surface sediments between 1992 and 1998, the transformation of PAHs and the modification of their distribution in the Baltic deep water is discussed in connection with the spreading of the inflowing highly saline and oxygen-rich water along its pathway from the sills into the central basins. In the course of the inflows in 1993/1994, the PAH concentration in the deep water of the different basins increased significantly. The concentrations were elevated, at least by a factor of 2 and as much as seven to eight times (for the four-ring PAHs) compared to the previous and the following years. Two hypotheses for the causes were discussed: the inflowing salt water may have entrained more highly polluted surface water in the western Baltic Sea, or it may have entrained contaminated fluffy layer material or sediment particles along the route of transport.     

Severity of sea ice in the Southern Baltic Sea, Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Bothnia up 21st century

The study focused on the evaluation of probable changes in the severity of sea ice conditions occurring in 3 selected areas of the Baltic Sea: the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Finland and the Southern Baltic Sea up to the year 2100. The areas have been chosen due to the high intensity of marine traffic (the Gulfs??of Bothnia and of Finland) and due to differences in sea ice conditions; winters in the Gulf of Bothnia were characterized as the most severe, whereas in the Southern Baltic were classified as the mildest ones. Consequently, three scenarios were taken into account in the study: A2 (slow rate of global economic development, market scenario), A1B (regional scenario, rapid economic development, with ecological priorities), B1 (sustainable, median economic development with strong ecological priorities), all three constructed on the basis of Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES models of greenhouse gas emission). The probable changes of sea ice conditions expressed as severity index S were calculated from these models. The main results of the investigation are as follows, the variety of sea ice conditions occurring in specific regions of the Baltic will remain stable (i.e. the most severe winter conditions will still occur in Gulf of Bothnia, while the mildest in the Southern Baltic Sea). The most significant changes are likely to occur in the Southern Baltic, where some winters without ice cover in the Vistula Lagoon may happen. Nonetheless, some extremely severe winters will occur and also within specific seasons more winters with a lower number of days with ice will occur.     

Large accumulative forms of relief on the southeastern coast of the Baltic Sea

The paper describes the conditions of formation of large accumulative forms on the southeastern coast of the Baltic Sea and presents the results of a comparative analysis of these structures. It has been established that Baltic barrier–lagoon systems have a complex geological and geomorphologic structure. Sandy barriers, which are, in general, marine accumulative formations, often comprise various fragments of different genesis (moraine remnants, glaciolacustrine and deltaic plains, etc.). The formation and development of large accumulative forms in the southeastern Baltic occurred against the background of sea level fluctuations in the Littorina time following a unified scenario for the entire coast.     

Influence of long-term regional and large-scale atmospheric circulation on the Baltic sea level

The connection between variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the Baltic sea level has been investigated for the period 1825–1997. The association between the NAO and the strength of the zonal geostrophic wind stress over the Northwest Atlantic suggests an NAO impact on Baltic sea level variations, because the monthly mean sea level mainly is determined by externally driven variations caused by wind conditions over the North Sea. Several period bands were found to have high correlation between oscillations in the winter (JFM) NAO index and the Baltic Sea winter mean sea level. The correlation was, however, higher in the 20th century than in the 19th. During the last two decades, the correlation between the NAO index and the sea level has been exceptionally high. The winter mean of a regional atmospheric circulation index had a correlation with the Kattegat winter mean sea level of 0.93. With the Baltic sea level the correlation was 0.91, compared with the NAO index correlation for the same period of 0.74. The regional index also showed a high correlation with the mean summer and mean autumn sea levels, when the corresponding seasonal NAO indices showed a weak connection. The temporal variation of the connection with the NAO index implies a regional atmospheric circulation occasionally differing from the large-scale circulation associated with the NAO. Seasonal means of the sea level in Stockholm do, however, reflect the regional wind climate to a large extent, and the Baltic sea level is a useful proxy for identifications of climatic dependencies in the region.     

Modeling the pathways and ages of inflowing salt- and freshwater in the Baltic Sea

A three-dimensional, eddy-permitting ocean circulation model with implemented bottom boundary layer model and flux-corrected transport scheme is used to calculate the pathways and ages of various water masses in the Baltic Sea. The agreement between simulated and observed temperature and salinity profiles of the period 1980–2004 is satisfactory. Especially the renewal of the deep water in the Baltic proper by gravity-driven dense bottom flows is better simulated than in previous versions of the model. Based upon these model results details of the mean circulation are analyzed. For instance, it is found that after the major Baltic inflow in January 2003 saline water passing the Słupsk Furrow flows directly towards northeast along the eastern slope of the Hoburg Channel. However, after the baroclinic summer inflow in August/September 2002 the deep water flow spreads along the southwestern slope of the Gdansk Basin. Further, the model results show that the patterns of mean vertical advective fluxes across the halocline that close the large-scale vertical circulation are rather patchy. Mainly within distinct areas are particles of the saline inflow water advected vertically from the deep water into the surface layer. To analyze the time scales of the circulation mean ages of various water masses are calculated. It is found that at the sea surface of the Bornholm Basin, Gotland Basin, Bothnian Sea, and Bothnian Bay the mean ages associated to inflowing water from Kattegat amount to 26–30, 28–34, 34–38, and 38–42 years, respectively. Largest mean sea surface ages of more than 30 years associated to the freshwater of the rivers are found in the central Gotland Basin and Belt Sea. At the bottom the mean ages are largest in the western Gotland Basin and amount to more than 36 years. In the Baltic proper vertical gradients of ages associated to the freshwater inflow are smaller than in the case of inflowing saltwater from Kattegat indicating an efficient recirculation of freshwater in the Baltic Sea.     

Less ice on the Baltic reduces the extent of hypoxic bottom waters and sedimentary phosphorus release

A significant relation was established between the maximum extent of sea ice covering the Baltic Sea and the hypoxic area in the deeper parts of the Baltic Proper, with a lag of 2 years: for the period 1970–2000, less ice was correlated with a smaller anoxic area. At the same time, maximum ice extent is subject to a long-term climate-related decline, due to higher air temperatures and an increased frequency of westerly winds. Together, this suggests that the hypoxic area will decrease in the coming decades. Internal sedimentary phosphorus-loading is closely related to the hypoxic area and hence would decrease as well. Wind strength variability did not have a significant additive effect to the variance in hypoxic area already explained by sea ice extent. The observed lag is in agreement with the order of magnitude of estimated residence times in the shallower sub-basins feeding the Baltic Proper, where ice extent varies most.     

Model estimates of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea in the contemporary and future climate

The St. Petersburg Baltic eutrophication model (SPBEM) is used to assess the ecological condition of the sea under possible changes in climate and nutrient loads in the 21st century. According to model estimates, in the future climate water quality will worsen, compared to modern conditions. This deterioration is stronger in the climate warming scenario with a stronger change in future near-surface air temperature. In the considered scenarios of climate change, climate warming will lead to an increase in the area of anoxic and hypoxic zones. Reduction of nutrient loading, estimated in accordance with the Baltic Sea Action Plan, will only be able to partially compensate for the negative effects of global warming.     

Distribution of cytochrome P4501A (CYP1A) in the tissues of Baltic ringed and grey seals

Information about the expression of CYP1A in wildlife species is essential for understanding the impact of organochlorine exposure on the health status of an exposed population. Therefore, we aimed at characterising a putative CYP1A enzyme expression in both hepatic and extrahepatic tissues of ringed and grey seals from the Baltic Sea and from less polluted waters. The cellular localisation of CYP1A was identified using a monoclonal antibody against scup P4501A1 (MAb 1-12-3). Immunohistochemical staining showed the highest level of CYP1A expression in liver hepatocytes, and the second highest level in the endothelial cells of capillaries and larger blood vessels in the liver and other organs. The most frequent and strongest staining was found in Baltic ringed seals. Although CYP1A-positive staining was observed in only a few tissues in the other seal populations, it was more intense in Baltic grey seals than in Canadian grey seals. The CYP1A enzyme activity, expressed as ethoxyresorufin O-deethylation (EROD), followed a similar tissue distribution and geographical pattern as the immunohistochemistry with clearly elevated EROD activities in most tissues of both Baltic seal populations. Immunochemical characterisation by immunoblotting confirmed the presence and elevation pattern of a putative CYP1A protein in ringed and grey seals, supporting our findings using other methods. The evenly distributed elevation of CYP1A expression among most of the tissues examined indicates that Baltic seals are exposed to CYP1A inducing agents affecting the whole body. This may result in an increased or decreased toxic potential of foreign substances, which may ultimately determine the biological effects of the contaminants.     

Basic intrusives and hydrocarbonic potential of the South-East Baltic

The Paleozoic rocks of Kaliningrad oblast and the adjacent areas of the SE Baltic Sea have recently became exploration targets. The small size and number of prospective structures, as well as the small size of the oil reserves in the onshore areas, have resulted in a decline in production and a decrease in exploration activity. At the same time, previous studies conducted by the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences and other institutions show that the SE Baltic Sea contains numerous yet-to-be-explored structures, which could be attractive exploration targets. Recent studies indicate that the region was intensely intruded by numerous diabase sills, which cut across Paleozoic reservoir rocks. This fact may have both positive and negative implications for the petroleum potential of the basin and should be taken into account in outlining the possible future directions for resource exploration. This study presents data on the distribution, sizes, ages, composition, and volumes of the mafic intrusions and discusses their thermal effects on the petroleum potential of the SE Baltic Basin.     

Variability of the Baltic Sea level and floods in the Gulf of Finland

The statistical analysis of the long-term data on the variability of the Baltic Sea level has revealed the complicated character of the wave field structure. The wave field formed by the variable winds and the disturbances of the atmospheric pressure in the Baltic Sea is a superposition of standing oscillations with random phases. The cross spectral analysis of the synchronous observation series of the level in the Gulf of Finland has shown that the nodal lines of the standing dilatational waves are clearly traced with frequencies corresponding to the distance from the nodal line to the top of the gulf (a quarter of the wave length). Several areas of the water basin with clearly expressed resonant properties may be distinguished: the Gulfs of Finland, Riga, and Bothnia, Neva Bay, etc. The estimations of the statistical correlation of the sea level oscillations with the variation of the wind and atmospheric pressure indicate the dominant role of the zonal wind component during the formation of the floods in the Gulf of Finland. The probable reason for the extreme floods in St. Petersburg may be the resonance rocking of the eigenmode oscillations corresponding to the basic fundamental seiche mode of the Gulf of Finland with a period of 27 h when the repeated atmospheric disturbances in the Baltic Sea occur with a period of 1–2 days.     

Risk of environmental genotoxicity in the Baltic Sea over the period of 2009–2011 assessed by micronuclei frequencies in blood erythrocytes of flounder (Platichthys flesus), herring (Clupea harengus) and eelpout (Zoarces viviparus)

Environmental genotoxicity was investigated at 82 locations encompassing different regions of the Baltic Sea. Micronuclei (MN) analysis was performed in erythrocytes of 1892 specimens of flounder Platichthys flesus, herring Clupea harengus and eelpout Zoarces viviparus, three of the most common native fish species of the Baltic Sea collected in 2009–2011. MN background levels in fish were determined using data obtained in 2001–2011 from 107 Baltic sites. Extremely high genotoxicity risk zones were found for flounder at 11 stations out of 16 in 2009 and 33 stations of 41 in 2010–2011, for herring, at 5 of 18 stations in 2009 and 20 of 43 stations in 2010–2011, in eelpout only at one out of 29 stations. The sampling stations were restricted mainly to the southern and eastern Baltic Sea offshore zones and in most of them, MN frequencies in flounder and herring significantly exceeded the reference and background levels of micronuclei. This is a first attempt to evaluate the background MN responses, as well as low, high and extremely high genotoxicity risk levels for native fish species.     

Modelling the influences of atmospheric forcing conditions on Baltic cod early life stages: distribution and drift

Retention or dispersion of larvae from the spawning ground has been identified as one of the key processes influencing recruitment success in fish stocks. An exercise combining 3-D hydrodynamic model simulations and field data on spatial distributions of juvenile Baltic cod was utilised to investigate the potential drift of larvae from the centre of main spawning effort in the Bornholm Basin, Baltic Sea. In the simulations cod larvae were represented as Lagrangian drifters. Habitats in which larvae and juvenile cod potentially dwell and where juveniles settle were identified to ascertain the importance of predicting transport. The transport of Baltic cod larvae was investigated by detailed drift model simulations for the years 1986 to 1999. The results yielded a clear dependency on wind-induced drift of larval cod, which is mainly controlled by the local atmospheric conditions over the Baltic Sea. Seasonally averaged distributions of drifters were compared with actual distributions of 0-group cod, as determined from bottom and pelagic trawl surveys conducted in autumn of the years 1993 to 2000 in and around the Bornholm Basin. The results suggest that juveniles caught in different areas can be assigned to different times of the spawning season. Because of seasonal differences in the circulation patterns, the southern coastal environment is on average most important for early and late spawners, whereas larvae hatching in mid-summer were on average transported towards the north or to a higher degree remained in the spawning ground.