Arctic sea ice concentration and thickness data assimilation in the FIO-ESM climate forecast system

To improve the Arctic sea ice forecast skill of the First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model (FIO-ESM) climate forecast system, satellite-derived sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness from the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) are assimilated into this system, using the method of localized error subspace transform ensemble Kalman ?lter (LESTKF). Five-year (2014–2018) Arctic sea ice assimilation experiments and a 2-month near-real-time forecast in August 2018 were conducted to study the roles of ice data assimilation. Assimilation experiment results show that ice concentration assimilation can help to get better modeled ice concentration and ice extent. All the biases of ice concentration, ice cover, ice volume, and ice thickness can be reduced dramatically through ice concentration and thickness assimilation. The near-real-time forecast results indicate that ice data assimilation can improve the forecast skill significantly in the FIO-ESM climate forecast system. The forecasted Arctic integrated ice edge error is reduced by around 1/3 by sea ice data assimilation. Compared with the six near-real-time Arctic sea ice forecast results from the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project, FIO-ESM climate forecast system with LESTKF ice data assimilation has relatively high Arctic sea ice forecast skill in 2018 summer sea ice forecast. Since sea ice thickness in the PIOMAS is updated in time, it is a good choice for data assimilation to improve sea ice prediction skills in the near-real-time Arctic sea ice seasonal prediction.     

Mechanisms controlling the temporal variation of the sea ice edge in the Southern Ocean

This paper examines the mechanism controlling the short time-scale variation of sea ice cover over the Southern Ocean. Sea ice concentration and ice velocity datasets derived from images of the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are employed to reveal this mechanism. The contribution of both dynamic and thermodynamic processes to the change in ice edge location is examined by comparing the meridional velocity of ice edge displacement and sea ice drift. In the winter expansion phase, the thermodynamic process of new ice production off the ice edge plays an important role in daily advances of ice cover, whereas daily retreats are mostly due to southward ice drift. On the other hand, both advance and retreat of ice edges in the spring contraction phase are mostly caused by the dynamic process of the ice drift. Based on the above mechanism and the linear relation between the degree of ice production at the ice edge and northward wind speed, the seasonal advance of ice cover can be roughly reproduced using the meridional velocity of ice drift at the ice edge.     

预测细粒酒精模型冰物理和力学参数的实验关系

依据模型冰物理性质控制其力学性质的原则 ,利用能量平衡观点建立了冰内未冻结液体含量同制冰过程中的冰池温度、降温及升温时间、模型冰厚度 (喷雾时间×流量 )的理论关系 ,以其量纲表达式作为预测模型冰物理和力学参数的综合控制指标 ;通过系统测量酒精溶液冰点温度、冰池大厅气温、模型冰温度、冰内未冻液含量、冰密度、冰压缩强度、冰弯曲强度和冰变形模量 ,获得了不同冰点温度模型冰的物理和力学参数同该综合控制指标的实验关系 ;实现了用人为可控制因子定量控制模型冰物理和力学参数的目的     

渤海和北极海冰组构及晶体结构特征分析

渤海一年冰的组构和晶体结构表现出的冰的非连续生长速率使得冰层底部具有气泡含量不同的许多分层;静水生长的灰冰具有典型的粒状冰和柱状冰;融化-重冻结冰和重叠冰具有特定的晶体结构.位于北冰洋72°24.037'N,153°33.994'W,长2.2m的冰心样为三年冰,并且发现其内有一种新的晶体类型,定义为碎屑凝聚冰.由位于北冰洋74°58.614'N,160°31.830'W,长4.86m的冰心样的晶体结构分析发现它过去为冰脊,后经融化-冻结改造形成冰丘的证据.     

质点-网格海冰模式在渤海的数值预报试验

在海冰动力学和热力学的研究基础上,开发应用于渤海的质点-网格海冰模式.该模式采用质点-网格法,有效地避免了传统海冰模式的数值扩散问题.该模式采用冰厚分布函数取代传统渤海业务海冰预报模式中平整冰、堆积冰和开阔水的三类海冰分型.应用质点-网格海冰模式对2003年～2004年冬季渤海冰情进行了业务化逐日数值预报试验,并对预报结果进行统计检验和分析比较.     

Characteristics of the Function of Ice Force on Vertical Cylindrical Piles

A lot of tests on ice forces on vertical cylindrical piles are conducted in the ice basin of ice laboratory in Tianjin University to identify the characteristics of ice forces on fixed platforms in the Bohai Gulf. A function of ice forces is simplified on basis of test data, and the charateristics of the ice forces including the amplitude of the force and the breaking frequency of the ice sheet is detailed by use of the Fast-Fourier-Transform method. The results show that the ice breaking frequency presents a linear relationship with the ratio of ice moving velocity to ice thickness at low velocities. At high velocities, the frequency remains constant with the increase of the ratio of ice moving velocity to ice thickness. These conclusions are compared those published in literature.     

基于质点-网格模式的海冰厚度变化过程数值模拟

根据渤海冰情,在海冰动力学和热力学研究基础上,应用一种质点-网格海冰模式于渤海海域.该模式采用了质点-网格法,有效地避免了传统模式的数值扩散问题.该模式采用了冰厚分布函数,用多种类型冰代替用于渤海业务预报的平整冰、堆积冰和开阔水3-level模式.进行理想场的数值试验,模拟冰厚变化动力过程.还使用该模式和业务预报模式对于实际渤海冰情进行了不同个例的预报试验,发现该模式在提高冰外缘线预报精度方面有一定的优势.     

基于岸基雷达数据的鲅鱼圈海域冰情基本特征

以2010~2015年的岸基雷达海冰监测数据为基础,简要分析了鲅鱼圈海域的冰期、冰型和冰厚等冰情基本特征。近年来的海冰监测数据表明,鲅鱼圈海域的冰期明显偏短,冰期内不同阶段的冰型变化较明显,鲅鱼圈海域部分时段海冰分布比例变化较大,这主要归因于该区域的海冰运动。针对目前岸基雷达海冰监测的技术发展现状,提出了岸基雷达海冰监测技术研发的主要问题是雷达像元回波值不稳定与海冰实测样本量匮乏。     

Sea ice volume and age: Sensitivity to physical parameterizations and thickness resolution in the CICE sea ice model

New dynamics parameterizations in Version 5 of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model, CICE, feature an anisotropic rheology and variable drag coefficients. This study investigates their effect on Arctic sea ice volume and age simulations, along with the effects of several pre-existing model options: a parameter that represents the mean cumulative area of ice participating in ridging, the resolution of the ice thickness distribution, and the resolution of the vertical temperature and salinity profiles.By increasing shear stress between floes, the anisotropic rheology slows the ice motion, producing a thicker, older ice pack. The inclusion of variable drag coefficients, which depend on modeled roughness elements such as deformed ice and melt pond edges, leads to thinner ice and a more realistic simulation of sea ice age. Several feedback processes act to enhance differences among the runs. Notably, if less open water is produced mechanically through ice deformational processes, the simulated ice thins relative to runs with more mechanically produced open water. Thermodynamic processes can have opposing effects on ice age and volume; for instance, growth of new ice increases the volume while decreasing the age of the pack. Therefore, age data provides additional information useful for differentiating among process parameterization effects and sensitivities to other model parameters.Resolution of thicker ice types is crucial for proper modeling of sea ice volume, because the volume of ice in the thicker ice categories determines the total ice volume. Model thickness categories tend to focus resolution for thinner ice; this paper demonstrates that 5 ice thickness categories are not enough to accurately resolve the ice thickness distribution for simulations of ice volume.     

Numerical simulation for dynamical processes of sea ice

ＮｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌｓｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎｆｏｒｄｙｎａｍｉｃａｌｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｅｓｏｆｓｅａｉｃｅＷｕＨｕｉｄｉｎｇ，ＢａｉＳｈａｎ，ＺｈａｎｇＺｈａｎｈａｉａｎｄＬｉＧｕｏｑｉｎｇ（ＲｅｃｅｉｖｅｄＭａｙ１６，１９９６；ａｃｃｅｐｔｅｄＪａｎｕａｒｙ...     

Research on ultrasonic-based investigation of mechanical properties of ice

Arctic sea ice area and thickness have declined dramatically during the recent decades. Sea ice physical and mechanical properties become increasingly important. Traditional methods of studying ice mechanical parameters such as ice-coring cannot realize field test and long-term observation. A new principle of measuring mechanical properties of ice using ultrasonic was studied and an ultrasonic system was proposed to achieve automatic observation of ice mechanical parameters (Young’s modulus, shear modulus and bulk modulus). The ultrasonic system can measure the ultrasonic velocity through ice at different temperature, salinity and density of ice. When ambient temperature decreased from 0°C to ?30°C, ultrasonic velocity and mechanical properties of ice increased, and vice versa. The shear modulus of the freshwater ice and sea ice varied from 2.098 GPa to 2.48 GPa and 2.927 GPa to 4.374 GPa, respectively. The bulk modulus of freshwater ice remained between 3.074 GPa and 4.566 GPa and the sea ice bulk modulus varied from 1.211 GPa to 3.089 GPa. The freshwater ice Young’s modulus kept between 5.156 GPa and 6.264 GPa and sea ice Young’s modulus varied from 3.793 GPa to 7.492 GPa. The results of ultrasonic measurement are consistent with previous studies and there is a consistent trend of mechanical modulus of ice between the process of ice temperature rising and falling. Finally, this ultrasonic method and the ultrasonic system will help to achieve the long-term observation of ice mechanical properties of ice and improve accuracy of sea ice models.     

海冰与直立结构相互作用的破坏模式研究

海冰在结构前的破坏模式以及产生的冰载荷与结构尺度和海冰厚度密切相关。采用海冰离散元方法（DEM）模拟平整冰与直立结构相互作用过程中的海冰破坏模式及整体冰载荷。该离散元方法的计算参数通过与Norstr?msgrund灯塔的现场实测数据对比进行了可靠性验证。在此基础上,对不同宽厚比（结构宽度与海冰厚度的比值）工况下平整冰与直立结构作用过程中的海冰破坏模式和整体冰压力进行了离散元分析。模拟结果表明：当宽厚比＜10时,海冰破坏模式主要为挤压破坏;当10≤宽厚比＜30时,海冰混合破坏发生;当宽厚比≥30时,海冰屈曲破坏发生。从海冰断裂长度与平均冰压力两个方面进一步说明了海冰破坏模式的转变过程。最后,构建了直立结构极值冰压力计算公式。研究成果可为寒区直立结构的整体设计提供参考。     

基于油气平台的海冰雷达监测图像处理及冰速测量

对海冰的运动规律进行精确、连续和长周期的实时监测有助于海冰热力学和动力学的研究,也可保障冰区生产活动的安全进行。针对辽东湾海冰的运动特点和工程需求,在JZ20-2油气平台上建立了海冰雷达监测系统。采用数字图像处理技术对海冰雷达监测图像进行了分析和软件开发,可对海冰密集度、速度和冰块面积等海冰参数进行提取。采用该海冰雷达监测系统和数字图像处理软件,在2011-2012年冬季对该海域的海冰运动规律进行了全冰期的连续监测,在此基础上重点对海冰速度的雷达图像监测结果进行了分析,讨论了海冰速度场分布以及连续48 h的变化过程。以上结果为海冰的生消运移规律研究和油气作业区的海冰管理工作提供了可靠的现场监测数据。对海冰雷达现场监测及数字图像处理中的问题及改进方法进行了讨论。     

基于黏聚单元法的抗冰海洋平台与层冰相互作用数值模拟

通过商业有限元软件LS-DYNA采用黏聚单元法模拟层冰的断裂问题,在IIHR冰池模型试验相同缩尺比参数下对KULLUK抗冰平台受到的冰力进行数值计算,探究冰厚与冰速等冰况参数对平台冰力的影响。计算结果表明,在极地作业平台主要遭遇北极海域冰况范围下,相同冰厚情况时冰速变化对倒锥形结构平台的横向冰力影响不大,而同冰速时冰力随着冰厚的增加接近线性增加。同时将计算所得结果与同条件下IIHR冰池模型试验数据、ARCTEC、ACL非冻结模型冰试验数据、实船数据和通过ISO19906规范中提供的针对大锥面结构受到层冰冰力的经验公式计算所得数据等进行了对比,验证了选用冰参数的可靠性以及该数值模型在模拟大尺度宽锥形平台遭受层冰作用问题中的适用性。     

“北京一号”小卫星图像在渤海海冰监测中的应用

利用“北京一号”小卫星全色和多光谱影像对冬季渤海海冰进行了监测。根据多光谱谱段特征和现场测试的海冰光谱之间的对应关系, 建立了卫星影像冰水识别、渤海海冰外缘线的模型, 估算了海冰面积及判别海冰发展趋势;对卫星影像数据进行监督分类, 建立了相应的分类模型;根据海冰类型的不同将海冰区域进行了划分, 并作为对海冰灾害严重程度的判别依据;以2007年度冬季为例, 对渤海海冰的分布面积进行了统计, 与海冰监测业务中使用的MODIS数据反演结果进行了对比, 对比结果显示“北京一号”卫星可以为海洋监测和预报服务部门提供高分辨率海冰遥感信息, 并为我国海冰灾害的防范提供可靠有效的资料。     

Modelling the annual cycle of landfast ice near Zhongshan Station,East Antarctica

A high resolution one-dimensional thermodynamic snow and ice(HIGHTSI) model was used to model the annual cycle of landfast ice mass and heat balance near Zhongshan Station, East Antarctica. The model was forced and initialized by meteorological and sea ice in situ observations from April 2015 to April 2016. HIGHTSI produced a reasonable snow and ice evolution in the validation experiments, with a negligible mean ice thickness bias of(0.003±0.06) m compared to in situ observations. To further examine the impact of different snow conditions on annual evolution of first-year ice(FYI), four sensitivity experiments with different precipitation schemes(0, half, normal, and double) were performed. The results showed that compared to the snow-free case,the insulation effect of snow cover decreased bottom freezing in the winter, leading to 15%–26% reduction of maximum ice thickness. Thick snow cover caused negative freeboard and flooding, and then snow ice formation,which contributed 12%–49% to the maximum ice thickness. In early summer, snow cover delayed the onset of ice melting for about one month, while the melting of snow cover led to the formation of superimposed ice,accounting for 5%–10% of the ice thickness. Internal ice melting was a significant contributor in summer whether snow cover existed or not, accounting for 35%–56% of the total summer ice loss. The multi-year ice(MYI)simulations suggested that when snow-covered ice persisted from FYI to the 10 th MYI, winter congelation ice percentage decreased from 80% to 44%(snow ice and superimposed ice increased), while the contribution of internal ice melting in the summer decreased from 45% to 5%(bottom ice melting dominated).     

Effects of hull–ice friction coefficient on predictions of pack ice forces for moored offshore vessels

Designers and offshore operators frequently predict pack ice loading on offshore vessels by conducting scale model tests. One factor that can affect pack ice loading is the hull–ice friction coefficient. This research investigates the effect of hull–ice friction coefficients for a moored offshore vessel model and includes ice floe size and ice concentration as additional variables. A method of non-dimensional analysis is modified in order to deal with the multivariate nature of the new data. The resulting non-dimensional equation provides insight on relationships between the predicted pack ice force and the variables under investigation. The relationship between pack ice force and hull–ice friction coefficient is shown to be approximately a fourth root function, while the relationship for ice floe size, non-dimensionalised by the vessel beam, is approximately linear. The relationship between predicted pack ice force and ice concentration exists in a band bounded by cubic and sixth power curves. Applying the modified equation to the previous data sets shows the current analysis slightly improves the normalization of pack ice forces.     

两种盐度参数化方案在海冰模式中的应用比较

本文详细介绍了SIS海冰模式中引进两种盐度参数化方案即等盐度方案和盐度廓线方案对海冰模拟所存在的差异。利用盐度廓线方案导出的表征盐度与海冰温度间关系的方程比等盐度方案多出一项,将定义为盐度差异项。盐度差异项对海冰厚度的热力作用表现为：在海冰厚度增长季节（11月到次年5月）,盐度差异项通过升高海冰内部温度,抑制海冰增长;在消融的第一阶段（6．8月）,盐度差异项通过升高海冰内部温度加快海冰消融;在消融的第二阶段（9．10月）,盐度差异项通过降低海冰内部的温度抑制海冰消融。但尺度分析表明,盐度差异项要比方程中队海冰温度作用最大项小1．2个量级,如果采用一级近似,可以略去盐度差异项,因此盐度差异项对海冰增长和消融影响很小。同时利用冰洋耦合模式（ModularOceanModel,MOM4）,分别采用两种盐度参数化方案模拟北极海冰厚度和海冰密集度的季节性变化,模拟结果也表明两种方案模拟得到的海冰厚度和海冰密集度的季节性变化相差甚小。     

南极威德尔海春季海冰物理结构对叶绿素上限含量的影响

2006年冬末春初,在德国POLARSTERN科学考察船执行南极威德尔海西北海域考察期间,调查了考察区海冰物理和海洋生物。本文观测了航线上钻取的27支海冰冰芯的组构和71个冰晶体薄片;分析得到393组冰温数据;348组盐度、密度数据和311组叶绿素a和脱镁叶绿素含量数据;通过302组冰内相同深度孔隙率和叶绿素a含量数据分析,发现海冰物理参数影响冰内叶绿素a含量的新证据;利用收集的雪、冰厚度数据以及环境容量制约生态平衡的规律,建立了雪、冰厚度对冰底叶绿素繁荣的影响以及;确立了南极粒状冰和柱状冰内叶绿素a上限含量同卤水体积的关系。从而表达了冰晶体对卤水排泄的效应和冰物理性质对南极春季冰底和冰-水界面叶绿素a增长的贡献。此外,还得出海冰物理性质影响冰藻,并且是南极冰区水体浮游植物繁荣的关键控制因素。     

Microwave signatures of the sea ice in the east Greenland current

Airborne microwave radiometer measurements at 5, 17, and 34 GHz have been carried out over the East Greenland Current. Sea ice signatures have been established for some of the basic ice types like first-year ice and multiyear ice. Other signatures have been experienced like that of presumably very old arctic ice and signatures associated more with the snow cover on the ice than with the ice itself. During MIZEX-83 measurements of total ice concentration were carried out.