Seismic safety of high concrete dams

Peak ground acceleration(PGA) estimation is an important task in earthquake engineering practice.One of the most well-known models is the Boore-Joyner-Fumal formula,which estimates the PGA using the moment magnitude,the site-to-fault distance and the site foundation properties.In the present study,the complexity for this formula and the homogeneity assumption for the prediction-error variance are investigated and an effi ciency-robustness balanced formula is proposed.For this purpose,a reduced-order Monte Carlo simulation algorithm for Bayesian model class selection is presented to obtain the most suitable predictive formula and prediction-error model for the seismic attenuation relationship.In this approach,each model class(a predictive formula with a prediction-error model) is evaluated according to its plausibility given the data.The one with the highest plausibility is robust since it possesses the optimal balance between the data fi tting capability and the sensitivity to noise.A database of strong ground motion records in the Tangshan region of China is obtained from the China Earthquake Data Center for the analysis.The optimal predictive formula is proposed based on this database.It is shown that the proposed formula with heterogeneous prediction-error variance is much simpler than the attenuation model suggested by Boore,Joyner and Fumal(1993).     

Seismic stability of concrete gravity dams

Linear finite element analyses are commonly used to simulate the behaviour of gravity dam—foundation systems. However, the foundation is generally unable to develop any significant tensile stresses. Therefore any tension occurring in the vicinity of the dam—foundation interface is largely fictitious. Moreover, the traditional overturning and sliding stability criteria have little meaning in the context of the oscillatory response of dams during earthquakes. In this study, time domain analyses using non-linear contact elements located at the dam—foundation interface have been used to determine the dynamic sliding and uplifting response of gravity dam monoliths considering various elastic foundation properties. The magnitudes of the relative interface displacements, of the percentage of base not in contact (PBNC) and of the compressive stresses at the heel or toe of the dam have been used to monitor the seismic stability. The numerical results have shown that the non-linear behaviour of the dam—foundation interface reduces the seismic response of the system, indicating the possibility of more rational and economical designs. The PBNC was identified as the critical seismic stability response parameter for all analyses except for very flexible foundation conditions where the maximum values of relative interface displacements need to be considered.     

Seismic safety of high concrete dams

China is a country of high seismicity with many hydropower resources. Recently,a series of high arch dams have either been completed or are being constructed in seismic regions,of which most are concrete dams. The evaluation of seismic safety often becomes a critical problem in dam design. In this paper,a brief introduction to major progress in the research on seismic aspects of large concrete dams,conducted mainly at the Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research(IWHR) during the past 60 years,is presented. The dam site-specific ground motion input,improved response analysis,dynamic model test verification,field experiment investigations,dynamic behavior of dam concrete,and seismic monitoring and observation are described. Methods to prevent collapse of high concrete dams under maximum credible earthquakes are discussed.     

Estimating the uncertainty in simulating the impacts of small farm dams on streamflow regimes in South Africa

Abstract

Small dams represent an important local-scale resource designed to increase water supply reliability in many parts of the world where hydrological variability is high. There is evidence that the number of farm dams has increased substantially over the last few decades. These developments can have a substantial impact on downstream flow volumes and patterns, water use and ecological functioning. The study reports on the application of a hydrological modelling approach to investigate the uncertainty associated with simulating the impacts of farm dams in several South African catchments. The focus of the study is on sensitivity analysis and the limitations of the data that would be typically available for water resources assessments. The uncertainty mainly arises from the methods and information that are available to estimate the dam properties and the water use from the dams. The impacts are not only related to the number and size of dams, but also the extent to which they are used for water supply as well as the nature of the climate and the natural hydrological regimes. The biggest source of uncertainty in South Africa appears to be associated with a lack of reliable information on volumes and patterns of water abstraction from the dams.

Citation Hughes, D. A. & Mantel, S. K. (2010) Estimating the uncertainty in simulating the impacts of small farm dams on streamflow regimes in South Africa. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(4), 578–592.     

Seismic behaviour of cracked concrete gravity dams

A finite element model of incremental displacement constraint equations (IDCE), based on an existing node‐to‐surface concept, is implemented to deal with dynamic contact surfaces in the seismic behaviour analysis of cracked concrete gravity dams. After verification for sliding, rocking and impact, the IDCE model is applied to study the seismic responses of concrete gravity dams with different profiles and crack locations for a variety of parameters, such as coefficient of friction, water level and type of earthquake, as well as impact damping based on the concept of coefficient of restitution. It is revealed that cracked concrete gravity dams can experience not only sliding and rocking modes, but also the drifting mode in some cases of crack either at the base or at a height. Downstream sliding is normally accompanied by rocking, especially for the cases of crack at a height. Due to rocking and drifting, a cracked dam may still acquire a certain amount of residual sliding even if the effective coefficient of friction is relatively high. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic fragility assessment of concrete gravity dams

Many concrete gravity dams have been in service for over 50 years, and over this period important advances in the methodologies for evaluation of natural phenomena hazards have caused the design‐basis events for these dams to be revised upwards. Older existing dams may fail to meet revised safety criteria and structural rehabilitation to meet such criteria may be costly and difficult. Fragility assessment provides a tool for rational safety evaluation of existing facilities and decision‐making by using a probabilistic framework to model sources of uncertainty that may impact dam performance. This paper presents a methodology for developing fragilities of concrete gravity dams to assess their performance against seismic hazards. The methodology is illustrated using the Bluestone Dam on the New River in West Virginia, which was designed in the late 1930s. The seismic fragility assessment indicated that sliding along the dam–foundation interface is likely if the dam were to be subjected to an earthquake with a magnitude of the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) specified by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Moreover, there will likely be tensile cracking at the neck of the dam at this level of seismic excitation. However, loss of control of the reservoir is unlikely. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic fracture analysis of concrete gravity dams

A numerical procedure for evaluation of the fracture process of gravity dams during strong earthquakes is presented. The BEM is used to discretize the dam reservoir system including the crack surfaces, and stress intensity factors at the crack tip are employed in a stage by stage procedure which simulates the crack extension. For each stage of constant crack length the mode superposition technique is applied; this is made possible by simulating the impact process of crack closing by a load pulse applied at the contact points which permits the structural stiffness to be assumed unchanged. To verify the proposed procedure, a cantilever beam model structure made of gypsum was tested on a shaking table. Good correlation with the numerical results was obtained, from which it is concluded that the procedure can be employed for evaluation of the crack propagation process in concrete structures subjected to dynamic loadings.     

Seismic shear vibration of embankment dams in semi-cylindrical valleys

A rigorous analytical solution is developed for the lateral linear shear response of embankment dams in semi-cylindrical valleys. Closed-form algebraic expressions are presented pertaining to both free and base-induced oscillations, and extensive parametric and comparative studies elucidate the prominent effects of canyon geometry (shape and aspect ratio) on dynamic response. Harmonic steady-state as well as earthquake-induced accelerations, displacements and shear strains in the dam are studied and compared with those obtained from 3-Dimensional analyses for other canyon geometries, as well as from 2-Dimensional (2-D) analyses of the dam mid-section. It is shown that such 2-D analyses may provide significantly lower values of near-crest accelerations, but slightly higher values of shear strains and stresses than the 3-D analyses. The proposed method of analysis is at least three orders of magnitude less expensive than other presently available numerical procedures.     

Seismic cracking and energy dissipation in concrete gravity dams

A finite element method for seismic fracture analysis of concrete gravity dams is presented. The proposed smeared crack analysis model is based on the non-linear fracture behaviour of concrete. The following features have been considered in the development of the model: (i) the strain softening of concrete due to microcracking; (ii) the rotation of the fracture band with the progressive evolution of microcrack damage in finite elements; (iii) the conservation of fracture energy; (iv) the strain-rate sensitivity of concrete fracture parameters; (v) the softening initiation criterion under biaxial loading conditions; (vi) the closing-reopening of cracks under cyclic loading conditions. The seismic fracture and energy response of dams and the significance of viscous damping models to take account of non-cracking structural energy dissipation mechanisms are discussed. The influences of global or local degradation of the material fracture resistance on the seismic cracking response of concrete dams were also studied. Two-dimensional seismic response analyses of Koyna Dam were performed to demonstrate the application of the proposed non-linear fracture mechanics model.     

Analysis of exceptionally large tremors in two gold mining districts of South Africa

An investigation of ground motion, recorded using broad-band, wide dynamic-range digital seismographs, of large mine tremors from two South African mining districts with different geologic settings, reveals some essential differences in both seismic source and ground motion parameters. In the Klerksdorp district where the strata are offset by major throughgoing normal faults, the largest tremors, with magnitudes ranging as high as 5.2, tend to be associated with slip on these pre-existing faults. Moreover, the seismic source and ground motion parameters are quite similar to those of natural crustal earthquakes. In the Carletonville district, by contrast, where substantial faults do not exist, the large-magnitude tremors appear to result from the failure of relatively intact rock and cause seismic stress drops and ground motion parameters higher than normally observed for natural shocks. Additionally, there appears to be an upper magnitude limit of about 4 in the Carletonville district. Detailed analyses of an exceptionally large event recorded locally from each of these districts serve to highlight these contrasts.Presented at the Fred Leighton Memorial Workshop on Mining Induced Seismicity, Montreal, Canada, August 30, 1987.     

Derivation and verification of empirical catchment response time equations for medium to large catchments in South Africa

Despite uncertainties and errors in measurement, observed peak discharges are the best estimate of the true peak discharge from a catchment. However, in ungauged catchments, the catchment response time is a fundamental input to all methods of estimating peak discharges; hence, errors in estimated catchment response time directly impact on estimated peak discharges. In South Africa, this is particularly the case in ungauged medium to large catchments where practitioners are limited to use empirical methods that were calibrated on small catchments not located in South Africa. The time to peak (T_P), time of concentration (T_C) and lag time (T_L) are internationally the most frequently used catchment response time parameters and are normally estimated using either hydraulic or empirical methods. Almost 95% of all the time parameter estimation methods developed internationally are empirically based. This paper presents the derivation and verification of empirical T_P equations in a pilot scale study using 74 catchments located in four climatologically different regions of South Africa, with catchment areas ranging from 20 km² to 35 000 km². The objective is to develop unique relationships between observed T_P values and key climatological and geomorphological catchment predictor variables in order to estimate catchment T_P values at ungauged catchments. The results show that the derived empirical T_P equation(s) meet the requirement of consistency and ease of application. Independent verification tests confirmed the consistency, while the statistically significant independent predictor variables included in the regressions provide a good estimation of catchment response times and are also easy to determine by practitioners when required for future applications in ungauged catchments. It is recommended that the methodology used in this study should be expanded to other catchments to enable the development of a regional approach to improve estimation of time parameters on a national‐scale. However, such a national‐scale application would not only increase the confidence in using the suggested methodology and equation(s) in South Africa, but also highlights that a similar approach could be adopted internationally. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic shear strains and seismic coefficients in dams and embankments

In a previous publication¹ dealing with the lateral seismic response of dams and embankments the authors developed an inhomogeneous shear beam (SB) model in which the modulus increases as a power m of the depth, with m ranging from 0.35 to 0.90 and depending on material and geometric parameters. Reference 1 studied primarily the free vibration characteristics and the distribution of peak seismic displacements in earth dams. This paper focuses on seismic shear strains and stresses, and on seismic coefficients. Both steady-state and transient vibrations are considered and the effects of inhomogeneity are graphically illustrated. A comprehensive comparative study is undertaken using five dam cross-sections, each excited by four recorded accelerograms. It is found that plane-strain finite-element analyses yield distributions of peak values of seismic shear strains which, in general, are in good accord with the results of a ‘consistent’ inhomogeneous SB model. The limitations of the developed model are also elucidated and possible ways of overcoming them are suggested.     

Seismic response of earth dams: some recent developments

The paper focuses on theoretical methods for estimating the dynamic response of earth dams to earthquake ground excitation. Following an outline of the historical developments in this field, the basic concepts/models for response analysis are introduced and their salient features, advantages and limitations are elucidated. The major phenomena associated with, and factors influencing, the response are identified and studied. Particular emphasis is accorded to inhomogeneity due to dependence of soil stiffness on confining pressure, nonrectangular canyon geometry, and nonlinear-inelastic soil behaviour. Several new formulations that have evolved over the last five years are outlined and characteristic results provide considerable insight into the problem. The simplicity of some of these formulations is underlined and attempts are made to compare their predictions with measurements from full-scale, natural and man-made, forced vibration tests. The basic validity as well as the limitations of the proposed analysis methods is demonstrated and topics of needed further research are suggested.     

Seismic performance sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of gravity dams

Uncertainties in structural engineering are often arising from the modeling assumptions and errors, or from variability in input loadings. A practical approach for dealing with them is to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the framework of stochastic and probabilistic methods. These analyses can be statically and dynamically performed through nonlinear static pushover and IDA techniques, respectively. Of the existing structures, concrete gravity dams are infrastructures which may encounter many uncertainties. In this research, probabilistic analysis of the seismic performance of gravity dams is presented. The main characteristics of the nonlinear tensile behavior of mass concrete, along with the intensity of earthquake excitations are considered as random variables in the probabilistic analysis. Using the tallest non‐overflow monolith of the Pine Flat gravity dam as a case study, its response under static and dynamic situations is reliably examined utilizing different combinations of parameters in the material and the seismic loading. The sensitivity analysis reveals the relative importance of each parameter independently. It will be shown that the undamaged modulus of elasticity and tensile strength of mass concrete have more significant roles on the seismic resistance of the dam than the ultimate inelastic tensile strain. In order to propagate the parametric uncertainty to the actual seismic performance of the dam, probabilistic simulation methods such as Monte Carlo simulation with Latin hypercube sampling, and approximate moment estimation techniques will be used. The final results illustrate the possibility of using a mean‐parameter dam model to estimate the mean seismic performance of the dam. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic evaluation of concrete dams via continuum damage models

In this paper a general methodology for the analysis of large concrete dams subjected to seismic excitation is outlined. It is valid both for gravity dams (2D representation) and arch dams (3D representation). The method allows for non-linear material behaviour of the dam, ‘transparent fictitious boundaries’ for dealing properly with in-coming and out-going seismic waves, and an efficient procedure to deal with dam-soil-fluid interaction. The mechanical behaviour of concrete is modelled using an isotropic damage model which allows for tension and compression damage, and exhibits stiffness recovery upon load reversals. Emphasis is placed in the treatment of fluid-structure interaction, regarding both formulation and efficiency aspects. A gravity dam and an arch dam are analysed subjected to artificially generated earthquakes of different intensities, and the results are used to study the degree of (un)safety of the dams.     

Seismic Moment Tensor Resolution on a Local Scale: Simulated Rockburst and Mine-induced Seismic Events in the Kopanang Gold Mine, South Africa

Seismic records contain information about the effect of the source as well as the effect of wave propagation through the rock mass. The effect of wave propagation is usually not well known as only simplified models of geological structures are available. Therefore, the information about the source retrieved by inverting seismograms may include errors due to incomplete knowledge of the rock mass along the propagation path, which in turn cause a distortion in the calculated moment tensor (MT). The distortion of the MT on a local scale was observed by inverting records of a simulated rockburst conducted at the Kopanang gold mine in South Africa. A dominant isotropic component of the explosive characteristics was found from the inversion. The deviatoric components retrieved from the blast are spurious. A test of their stability indicated that they are not significant, assuming an uncertainty above 5% for velocities and 10% for attenuation within the homogeneous model available for the mine. Thus, the retrieval of the MT from records of local networks in mines using a homogeneous model of the rock mass seems to be feasible. However, the homogeneous model of the rock mass can only be applied to close stations, within a few kilometers of the source. The seismic records from distant stations were too complex to be modelled by a homogeneous rock mass. Records of six mine-induced seismic events recorded at the Kopanang gold mine were also inverted. A vertical linear dipole along the pressure (P) axis was found for three of the events, suggesting a pillar burst. The mechanism of two events contains an isotropic implosion together with a nearly vertical dip-slip, and seems to indicate a combination of a cavity collapse with a down dip-slip along a nearly vertical fault. One event corresponds to a dipole along the tensional (T) axis. However, it is vertical, thus its association with tensile faulting of the hangingwall is uncertain.     

Seismic risk analysis for Northern Iraq

In this study the seismic risks of northern Iraq have been evaluated by a probabilistic method. The data contain about 500 earthquakes which occurred between 1840 and 1978. The epicentral locations and magnitudes of the included earthquakes have been presented. A linear relationship between magnitude and frequency has been assumed. The attenuation of intensities has been presented as a function of magnitude and epicentral distance. The seismic risk has been calculated for 225 points of the analysed area. The equiseismal maps related to a certain risk level have been plotted by using these point values of intensities, and assuming a linear variation between the points. The significance of the standard deviation of the attenuation law and the strict lower bound intensity has been investigated by sensitivity analyses. The intensity contours related to the annual return period of 50, 100 and 200 years have been presented, and also the intensity contours with an occurrence probability of 10 per cent during 50, 100 and 200 years have been drawn.     

Lessons learned from Wenchuan earthquake for seismic safety of large dams

This paper describes some special features of the Wenchuan earthquake that affected dam safety. Damage and performance of dams, primarily for four dams over 100 m high located in the affected earthquake area, are briefly described. Lessons learned related to dam safety from this devastating earthquake are preliminarily drawn. As the seismic safety of high dams during strong earthquakes has gained more attention around the world, some critical issues related to dam construction in China are considered and extensively discussed. Questions such as “Why is dam construction necessary in earthquake prone countries such as China?”, “Can we accurately evaluate the seismic safety of high dams in China?”, “Did reservoir impounding of the Zipingpu and Three Gorges Projects trigger the Wenchuan Earthquake in some way?” and “What is the strategic priority of dam safety for large dams in China?” are discussed. Finally, the corresponding tactics with response to the challenge are suggested and recent preliminary progress mainly achieved in IWHR is briefly introduced.