Periodicities in the time series of annual minimum temperatures for the United States Gulf Coast region

The minimum winter temperature series for the United States Gulf Coast for 1799–1988 (190 values) was subjected to Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis. Significant periodicities in the QBO region (T-2–3 years) and atT=3.7, 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, 12.9, 15.5 and 22 years were detected. Some of these were present in the first half only (1799–1893) while others in the latter half only (1894–1988), indicating a transient nature. Also, more than 50% of the variance was random. Many of the significant periodicities are seen in other geophysical parameters. Some may be harmonics of the 11-year sunspot cycle and the 22-year Hale magnetic sunspot cycle.     

Monte Carlo simulation of small air-mass showers

The present model permits simulation of any geographic region and the symmetrical or random positioning of any number of rain gauges. The operator has the option of entering precipitation parameters: rain cell diameter, duration, rain swath length, vector angle, and precipitation amount for any number of discrete showers. In a series of computations the model generates (1) a random first echo location and resulting rain swath, which is superimposed on a specific grid of rain gauges; (2) the number of rain gauge receiving a hit; and (3) the number of undetected rain events within an area.By use of a portion of the Iowa climatological rain gauge network and parameters derived from radar and rain gauge observations the model shows that only 7% of single cell showers are detected by the existing sampling grid.Journal Paper No. J-10378 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, IA 50011. Project 2449.A portion of this paper was presented at the 93rd Annual Meeting of the Iowa Academy of Science, April 1981.     

The sunspot areas and the relative sunspot numbers

Summary Within each sunspot cycle the yearly means (A) of the daily sunspot areas increase faster than the corresponding sunspot numbers (R) from the minimum to the maximum of solar activity and then decrease also faster than these numbers till the next minimum. Relation (A)=16.7 (R), frequently used so far, is approximately valid only for the years in the vicinity of the sunspot maximum. Instead of that, author gives the relations: for the years preceding the sunspot maximum, for the years following the sunspot maximum, wherea andb are constants,T _R is the time of rise of the corresponding sunspot cycle expressed in years, andk takes the valuek=0 for the year of maximum solar activity andk=1, 2, 3, ... for the first, second, third ... year preceding or following that of maximum solar activity. The monthly means of the daily sunspot areas show a similar variation, but in this case the ratioq=AR varies with a greater amplitude both within each sunspot cycle and from cycle to cycle. The values ofq corresponding to all months of a given year in the sunspot cycle are contained between two limits depending on the time of rise.

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Résumé Les valeurs moyennes (A) des aires diurnes des taches solaires à chaque année depuis 1878 augmentent plus rapidement du minimum vers le maximum de l'activité solaire que les nombres de Wolf correspondants (R). Elles diminuent aussi plus rapidement que les nombres de Wolf du maximum vers le minimum de l'activité solaire. La relation adoptée (A)=16.7 (R) ne s'applique pas avec une approximation satisfaisante que seulement pour les années voisines celle du maximum de l'activité solaire. L'auteur propose les relations: pour les années qui précédent le maximum, pour les années qui suivent le maximum, oùa, b sont des constantes,T _R le temps d'ascension du cycle correspondant exprimé en années et la parametrek prend la valeurk=0 à l'année du maximum de l'activité solaire etk=1, 2, 3 ... pour les années qui précédent et qui suivent celle du maximum. Les valeurs moyennes des aires diurnes des taches à chaque mois, suivent la même marche mais dans ce cas le rapportq=AR present des larges variations. Il oscille pourtant extre deux limites qui dependent du temps d'ascension.

     

Ionospheric measurements of relative coronal brightness during the total solar eclipses of 11 August, 1999 and 9 July, 1945

Swept-frequency (1/10 MHz) ionosonde measurements were made at Helston, Cornwall (50°06N, 5°18W) during the total solar eclipse on August 11, 1999. Soundings were made every three minutes. We present a method for estimating the percentage of the ionising solar radiation which remains unobscured at any time during the eclipse by comparing the variation of the ionospheric E-layer with the behaviour of the layer during a control day. Application to the ionosonde date for 11 August, 1999, shows that the flux of solar ionising radiation fell to a minimum of 25±2% of the value before and after the eclipse. For comparison, the same technique was also applied to measurements made during the total solar eclipse of 9 July, 1945, at Sörmjöle (63°68N, 20°20E) and yielded a corresponding minimum of 16 ± 2%. Therefore the method can detect variations in the fraction of solar emissions that originate from the unobscured corona and chromosphere. We discuss the differences between these two eclipses in terms of the nature of the eclipse, short-term fluctuations, the sunspot cycle and the recently-discovered long-term change in the coronal magnetic field.     

Time variations of geomagnetic activity indices Kp and Ap: an update

Kp and Ap indices covering the period 1932 to 1995 are analysed in a fashion similar to that attempted by Bartels for the 1932–1961 epoch to examine the time variations in their characteristics. Modern analysis techniques on the extended data base are used for further insight. The relative frequencies of occurrence of Kp with different magnitudes and the seasonal and solar cycle dependences are seen to be remarkably consistent despite the addition of 35 years of observations. Many of the earlier features seen in the indices and special intervals are shown to be replicated in the present analysis. Time variations in the occurrence of prolonged periods of geomagnetic calm or of enhanced activity are presented and their relation to solar activity highlighted. It is shown that in the declining phase the occurrence frequencies of Kp = 4–5 (consecutively over 4 intervals) can be used as a precursor for the maximum sunspot number to be expected in the next cycle. The semiannual variation in geomagnetic activity is reexamined utilising not only the Ap index but also the occurrence frequencies of Kp index with different magnitudes. Lack of dependence of the amplitude of semiannual variation on sunspot number is emphasised. Singular spectrum analysis of the mean monthly Ap index shows some distinct periodic components. The temporal evolution of 44 month, 21 month and 16 month oscillations are examined and it is postulated that while QBO and the 16 month oscillations could be attributed to solar wind and IMF oscillations with analogous periodicity, the 44 month variation is associated with a similar periodicity in recurrent high speed stream caused by sector boundary passage. It is reconfirmed that there could have been only one epoch around 1940 when solar wind speed could have exhibited a 1.3-year periodicity comparable to that seen during the post-1986 period.     

Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO2 on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway and air temperature''s trend prediction

There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (Trw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: Trw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO2), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO2 concentration, Trw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50℃ in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20℃ in July and from 0.40℃ to 1.10℃ in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3-1.00℃. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64 to 0.73.     

Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO2 on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway and air temperature’s trend prediction

There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (T_rw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: T_rw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO₂), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO₂ concentration, inrw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50°C in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20°C in July and from 0.40°C to 1.10°C in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3–1.00°C. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64 to 0.73.

     

Effects of sunspot cycle length and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> on air temperature along Qinghai-Xizang railway and air temperature’s trend prediction

There are well coherences between annual averaged air temperatures at every meteorological station along the Qinghai-Xizang railway, and its 10-year moving average correlation coefficient is 0.92. Thus, the regional averaged annual mean temperature series along the Qinghai-Xizang railway (T_rw) from 1935 to 2000 are constructed. The investigation is suggested that: T_rw had significant responses to the 5-year lagged sunspot cycle length (SCL) and 15-year lagged concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), and the correlation coefficients between them are -0.76 (SCL) and 0.88 (CO₂), respectively. The future SCL is predicted by the model of average generated function constructed with its main cycles of 76a, 93a, 108a, 205a and 275a. The result shows that the SCL would be becoming longer in the first half of the 21st century, and then it could be becoming shorter in the second half of the 21st century. Based on the natural change of SCL and the effect of double CO₂ concentration, inrw in the 21st century is forecasted. It could warm up about 0.50°C in the first half of the 21st century compared with the last decade of last century. The mean maximum air temperature could be likely about 0.20°C in July and from 0.40°C to 1.10°C in January. The annual air temperature difference would likely reduce 0.3–1.00°C. The probability of above predictions ranges from 0.64 to 0.73.     

The dynamic relation between activities in the Northern and Southern solar hemispheres

The north–south (N/S) asymmetry of solar activity is the most pronounced phenomenon during 11-year cycle minimums. The goal of this work is to try to interpret the asymmetry as a result of the generalized synchronization of two dynamic systems. It is assumed that these systems are localized in two solar hemispheres. The evolution of these systems is considered in the topological embeddings of a sunspot area time series obtained with the use of the Takens algorithm. We determine the coupling measure and estimate it on the time series of daily sunspot areas. The measurement made it possible to interpret the asymmetry as an exchangeable dynamic equation, in which the roles of the driver–slave components change in time for two hemispheres.     

Versions of Time Series for Classical Solar Indices and an Adequate Description of Solar Activity

This article discusses issues relevant to the 2015 recalibration of the time series of classical solar indices. It shows that the Wolf numbers WN and the group numbers GN are sensitive to the quality of the observations underpinning the reconstructions of the relevant time series, given the intermittent recordings in the 17th and 18th centuries. The authors suggest that research efforts should focus on the compilation of a long series of total sunspot areas (absolute sunspot magnetic flux), because, on the one hand, this series is less sensitive to poor-quality observations, while, on the other hand, it reflects a clear physical index.     

Prediction of sunspot number amplitude and solar cycle length for cycles 24 and 25

The prediction of solar activity strength for solar cycles 24 and 25 is made on the basis of extrapolation of sunspot number spectral components. Monthly sunspot number data during the 1850–2007 interval (solar cycles 9–23) are decomposed into several levels and searched for periodicities by iterative regression in each level. For solar cycle 24, the peak is predicted in November 2013 with a sunspot number of 113.3. The cycle is expected to be weak, with a length of 133 mo (months) or 11.1 yr. The sunspot number maximum in cycle 25 is predicted to occur in April 2023 with a sunspot number 132.1 and a solar cycle length of 118 mo or 9.8 yr. Thus, solar cycle 24 is predicted to have an intensity 23% lower than cycle 23, and cycle 25 will be 5% lower than cycle 23.     

Temperature variability in central Mexico and its possible association to solar activity

Minimum extreme temperature variability from five meteorological stations in the central part of Mexico covering a period from 1920 to 1990 is examined. We found a correlation coefficient (r=0.65) between these temperature records and geomagnetic activity. Furthermore, by performing spectral analysis peaks were obtained with similar periodicities to those found in the sunspot number, the magnetic solar cycle, cosmic ray fluxes and geomagnetic activity; all of these phenomena are modulated by solar activity. Signals with periodicities comparable to those observed in El Niño and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation were also identified. We conclude that the solar signal is probably present in the minimum extreme temperature record of the central part of Mexico.     

Trend analysis using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for long-term precipitation (1851–2006) over India

This study is an attempt to determine the trends in monthly, annual and monsoon total precipitation series over India by applying linear regression, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and discrete wavelet transform (DWT). The linear regression test was applied on five consecutive classical 30-year climate periods and a long-term precipitation series (1851–2006) to detect changes. The sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was applied to identify the temporal variation in trend. Wavelet transform is a relatively new tool for trend analysis in hydrology. Comparison studies were carried out between decomposed series by DWT and original series. Furthermore, visualization of extreme and contributing events was carried out using the wavelet spectrum at different threshold values. The results showed that there are significant positive trends for annual and monsoon precipitation series in North Mountainous India (zone NMI) and North East India (NEI), whereas negative trends were detected when considering India as whole.

EDITOR A. Castellarin ASSOCIATE EDITOR S. Kanae     

Long-term change in precipitation in southern Italy

Summary Annual average precipitation values obtained at 765 Italian raingauge stations south of the Rome parallel and in the Italian Isles, are analyzed. The analysis is extended over 18 years and marked variations in precipitation with the Zürich annual relative sunspot numbers are found. It is found furthermore that the magnitude of change appears to depend also on the average altitude of the 5 categories of stations considered.

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Riassunto In questo articolo viene fatta un'analisi sulle variazioni delle precipitazioni medie annue in base ai dati forniti da 765 stazioni pluviometriche dell'Italia meridionale, Sicilia e Sardegna, negli anni dal 1926 al 1943 incluso. Tali variazioni sembrano essere legate al numero medio annuo di macchie solari e dipendono anche dall'altezza delle stazioni.

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Contribution of the Centro Nucleazione Aerosoli of the National Research Council of Italy; Via Vettore 4 (Monte Sacro)     

Temporal variations and scaling of streamflow and baseflow and their nitrate-nitrogen concentrations and loads

The patterns of temporal variations of precipitation (P), streamflow (SF) and baseflow (BF) as well as their nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) concentrations (C) and loads (L) from a long-term record (28 years) in the Raccoon River, Iowa, were analyzed using variogram and spectral analyses. The daily P is random but scaling may exist in the daily SF and BF with a possible break point in the scaling at about 18 days and 45 days, respectively. The nitrate concentrations and loads are shown to have a half-year cycle while daily P, SF, and BF have a one-year cycle. Furthermore, there may be a low-frequency cycle of 6–8 years in C. The power spectra of C and L in both SF and BF exhibit fractal 1/f scaling with two characteristic frequencies of half-year and one-year, and are fitted well with the spectrum of the gamma distribution. The nitrate input to SF and BF at the Raccoon watershed seems likely to be a white noise process superimposed on another process with a half-year and one-year cycle.     

Stream response to precipitation variability: a spectral view based on analysis and modelling of hydrological cycle components

Hydrological processes commonly exhibit long‐term persistence, also known as the ‘Hurst phenomenon’. Here, we examine long‐term precipitation and streamflow time series from the Elbe River Basin to quantify differences in the spectral properties and in the Hurst parameter estimates () of the individual hydrological cycle components. Precipitation‐runoff modelling is performed for the Elbe River sub‐catchment Striegis using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). For 38 daily 50 years long streamflow time series from the Elbe River Basin, baseflow separation and spectral analysis is performed. The results show a spectral shift towards low‐frequency scales (>2 years) from precipitation to baseflow, with a parallel increase of from 0.52 (precipitation) to 0.65 (baseflow). The SWAT model is able to reproduce both, the main low‐frequency mode (≈7 yr.) and the (0.62) of the observed Striegis River flow time series. The baseflow appears to be the main component which shapes the low‐frequency response and of streamflow in the Elbe River Basin to the input precipitation. This conclusion is further confirmed through PMWIN‐MODFLOW groundwater modelling of a hypothetic phreatic stream‐connected aquifer system that consists of various soils (sand, loamy sand and silt). A power shift towards lower frequencies and an increase of for the hydraulic heads is obtained, as the aquifer's lateral dimensions increase and its hydraulic conductivity decreases. The average of the groundwater heads is 0.80, 0.90 and 1.0 for sand, loamy sand and silt aquifers, respectively. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The June 2013 Alberta catastrophic flooding event – part 2: fine‐scale precipitation and associated features

Data obtained from a variety of sources including the Canadian Lightning Detection Network, weather radars, weather stations and operational numerical weather model analyses were used to address the evolution of precipitation during the June 2013 southern Alberta flood. The event was linked to a mid‐level closed low pressure system to the west of the region and a surface low pressure region initially to its south. This configuration brought warm, moist unstable air into the region that led to dramatic, organized convection with an abundance of lightning and some hail. Such conditions occurred in the southern parts of the region whereas the northern parts were devoid of lightning. Initially, precipitation rates were high (extreme 15‐min rainfall rates up to 102 mm h^?1 were measured) but decreased to lower values as the precipitation shifted to long‐lived stratiform conditions. Both the convective and stratiform precipitation components were affected by the topography. Similar flooding events, such as June 2002, have occurred over this region although the 2002 event was colder and precipitation was not associated with substantial convection over southwest Alberta. Copyright © 2016 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Hydrological Processes. © John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Visibility in the eastern Mediterranean

Summary The frequency of mist and fog over the Eastern Mediterranean generally shows a maximum in the warm season and a minimum in winter. It is also less on the African coats than on the northern shores. In the warm season visibility may also deteriorate as a result of the spreading out of heat-haze, notably by midday, or by dust-haze. An outline of the distributions favouring these weather features has been given. It has also been shown that apart from these features, visibility may deteriorate as a result of suspended dust blown from the African deserts by southerly winds in front of travelling depressions in winter or in spring. Visibility may also deteriorate as a result of heavy precipitation in a Cyprus low in winter.     

Estimation of the effect of solar activity on the intensity of galactic cosmic rays

The observations of solar activity (average monthly values of the international sunspot numbers and areas, solar radioemission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm) and galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity (average monthly values of the count rate of an omnidirectional Geiger counter at a maximum of the transition curve in the regions of Moscow and Murmansk and differences between these values) have been studied. The main aim of the studies was to assess the possibility of using the series of GCR values as an additional type of instrumental observations to predict solar activity. The results of an analysis made it possible to assess the degree of interrelation between the studied time series and, thereby, to confirm that GCRs, together with the characteristics of sunspot formation and solar radioemission flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, can be used to predict solar activity. The development of the current solar cycle has been predicted. It is assumed that the duration of this cycle will exceed the average value.     

The spatial relationship between active regions and coronal holes and the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms throughout the solar activity cycle

We study the annual frequency of occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst < –100 nT) throughout the solar activity cycle for the last three cycles and find that it shows different structures. In cycles 20 and 22 it peaks during the ascending phase, near sunspot maximum. During cycle 21, however, there is one peak in the ascending phase and a second, higher, peak in the descending phase separated by a minimum of storm occurrence during 1980, the sunspot maximum. We compare the solar cycle distribution of storms with the corresponding evolution of coronal mass ejections and flares. We find that, as the frequency of occurrence of coronal mass ejections seems to follow very closely the evolution of the sunspot number, it does not reproduce the storm profiles. The temporal distribution of flares varies from that of sunspots and is more in agreement with the distribution of intense geomagnetic storms, but flares show a maximum at every sunspot maximum and cannot then explain the small number of intense storms in 1980. In a previous study we demonstrated that, in most cases, the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms is associated with a flaring event in an active region located near a coronal hole. In this work we study the spatial relationship between active regions and coronal holes for solar cycles 21 and 22 and find that it also shows different temporal evolution in each cycle in accordance with the occurrence of strong geomagnetic storms; although there were many active regions during 1980, most of the time they were far from coronal holes. We analyse in detail the situation for the intense geomagnetic storms in 1980 and show that, in every case, they were associated with a flare in one of the few active regions adjacent to a coronal hole.