The Maunder Minimum and the Sun as the Possible Source of Particles Creating Increased Abundance of the <Superscript>14</Superscript>C Carbon Isotope

The Maunder Minimum was the time during the second part of the 17th century, nominally from 1645 to 1717 AD, when unusually low numbers of sunspots were observed. On the basis of numerous recorded observations of auroras in the early 18th century, the end of the Minimum could be regarded as around 1700, but details of sunspot observations by Jan Heweliusz (Heweliusz, Machina Coelestis, 1679), John Flamsteed and Philippe de La Hire in 1684 allow us to interpret the Maunder Minimum as the period without a significant cessation of activity. This Minimum was also recognized in ¹⁴C data from trees which grew during the second part of 17th century. The variation in the production rate of radioactive carbon isotope ¹⁴C is due to modulation of the cosmic ray flux producing it by the changing level of solar activity and solar magnetic flux. Stronger magnetic fields in the solar wind make it more difficult for cosmic rays to reach the Earth, causing a drop in the production rate of ¹⁴C. However, more detailed analyses of ¹⁴C data indicate that the highest isotope abundances do not occur at the time of sunspot minima, as would be expected on the basis of modulation of the cosmic ray flux by the solar magnetic field, but two years after the sunspot number maximum. This time difference (or phase delay) can be accounted for if in fact there are both solar and non-solar cosmic ray contributions. Solar flares could also contribute high-energy particles and produce ¹⁴C and are generally not most frequent at the time of the highest sunspot numbers in the cycle.     

Overlooked sunspot observations by Hevelius in the early Maunder Minimum, 1653–1684

In the bookMachina Coelestis (1679), Johannes Hevelius lists his daily solar observations from 1653 to 1679. He mentions 19 sunspot groups during this interval, of which 14 are unique to Hevelius and five are confirmed by other observers. There are an additional 9 sunspot groups during this interval that were not observed by Hevelius. In five cases he was not observing, but in the other four cases he did observe but failed to comment upon sunspots. The spots he missed or failed to observe tend to occur near the end of his career. This suggests Hevelius occasionally missed sunspots but usually was a reliable observer. These observations are important because they provide us the only known daily listing of solar observations during the early years of the Maunder Minimum. They are also important because they were overlooked by Wolf, Spoerer, Maunder, Eddy, and others in their study of solar activity in the seventeenth century. They provide us the best record of the sunspot maximum of 1660 when one sunspot lasted at least 86 days as it traversed the solar disk four times. The same region was active for seven solar rotations.     

Long-Term Solar Cycle Evolution: Review of Recent Developments

The sunspot number series forms the longest directly observed index of solar activity and allows one to trace its variations on the time scale of about 400 years since 1610. This time interval covers a wide range from seemingly vanishing sunspots during the Maunder minimum in 1645–1700 to the very high activity during the last 50 years. Although the sunspot number series has been studied for more than a century, new interesting features have been found even recently. This paper gives a review of the recent achievements and findings in long-term evolution of solar activity cycles such as determinism and chaos in sunspot cyclicity, cycles during the Maunder minimum, a general behaviour of sunspot activity during a great minimum, the phase catastrophe and the lost cycle in the beginning of the Dalton minimum in 1790s and persistent 22-year cyclicity in sunspot activity. These findings shed new light on the underlying physical processes responsible for sunspot activity and allow a better understanding of such empirical rules as the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule and the Waldmeier relations.     

Evidence for solar-cycle evolution of north-south flare asymmetry during cycles 20 and 21

The record of flare incidence from January 1969 to October 1988 indicates that the north-south (N-S) distribution of large flares is periodic and approximately in phase with the 11-year sunspot cycle. These data are based on observations of the whole-disk Sun in continuum soft X-rays which commenced in early 1969 and have proceeded without interruption to the present time. The pattern of occurrence, observed for slightly less than two sunspot cycles, is that large flares concentrate in north heliographic latitudes soon after solar minimum and then migrate gradually southward as the cycle progresses. By the end of the cycle, most large flares occur in the south. The degree of N-S asymmetry apparently is a function of the intensity of the flare; the most intense flares show the largest amount of N-S asymmetry. The data suggest that sunspots and flares may be driven by distinctly different excitation mechanisms arising at different levels in the convection zone. This conjecture is supported by recent work of Bai (1987, 1988), who has discovered that the superactive regions producing the majority of flares rotate at a speed substantially different from the Carrington rate, which is based primarily on the observed motion of sunspots.     

Total Solar Irradiance Variation During Rapid Sunspot Growth

Large sunspot areas correspond to dips in the total solar irradiance (TSI), a phenomenon associated with the local suppression of convective energy transport in the spot region. This results in a strong correlation between sunspot area and TSI. During the growth phase of a sunspot other physics may affect this correlation; if the physical growth of the sunspot resulted in surface flows affecting the temperature, for example, we might expect to see an anomalous variation in TSI. In this paper we study NOAA active region 8179, in which large sunspots suddenly appeared near disk center, at a time (March 1998) when few competing sunspots or plage regions were present on the visible hemisphere. We find that the area/TSI correlation does not significantly differ from the expected pattern of correlation, a result consistent with a large thermal conductivity in solar convection zone. In addition we have searched for a smaller-scale effect by analyzing white-light images from MDI (the Michelson Doppler Imager) on SOHO. A representative upper-limit energy consistent with the images is on the order of 3×10³¹ ergs, assuming the time scale of the actual spot area growth. This is of the same order of magnitude as the buoyant energy of the spot emergence even if it is shallow. We suggest that detailed image analyses of sunspot growth may therefore show `transient bright rings' at a detectable level.     

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modern measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, X-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modern measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or “Space Climate.” The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131± 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period; 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 145 ± 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 ± 30 in 2023.     

Simulation of Sunspot Activity During Active Sun and Great Minima Using Regular,Random and Relic Fields

Developing the idea of Ruzmaikin (1997, 1998), we have constructed a model of sunspot production using three components of solar magnetic field: the 22-year dynamo field, a weak constant relic field, and a random field. This model can reproduce the main features of sunspot activity throughout the 400-year period of direct solar observations, including two different sunspot activity modes, the present, normal sunspot activity and the Maunder minimum. The two sunspot activity modes could be modeled by only changing the level of the dynamo field while keeping the other two components constant. We discuss the role of the three components and how their relative importance changes between normal activity and great minimum times. We found that the relic field must be about 3–10% of the dynamo field in normal activity times. Also, we find that the dynamo field during the Maunder minimum was small but non-zero, being suppressed typically by an order of magnitude with respect to its value during normal activity times.     

Could a Hexagonal Sunspot Have Been Observed During the Maunder Minimum?

The Maunder Minimum is the period between 1645 and 1715. Its main characteristic is abnormally low and prolonged solar activity. However, some authors have doubted the low level of solar activity during that period by questioning the accuracy and objectivity of the observers. This work presents a particular case of a sunspot observed during the Maunder Minimum with an unusual shape of its umbra and penumbra: a hexagon. This sunspot was observed by Cassini in November 1676, just at the core of the Maunder Minimum. This historical observation is compared with a twin case that occurred recently in May 2016. The conclusion reached is that Cassini’s record is another example of the good quality of the observations that were made during the Maunder Minimum, showing the meticulousness of the astronomers of that epoch. This sunspot observation made by Cassini does not support the conclusions of Zolotova and Ponyavin (Astrophys. J. 800, 42, 2015) that professional astronomers in the seventeenth century only registered round sunspots. Finally, a discussion is given of the importance of this kind of unusual sunspot record for a better assessment of the true level of solar activity in the Maunder Minimum.     

质子活动与太阳黑子群

本文对太阳活动第２１周、２２周（１９７６年—１９９２年间）９７个质子活动区进行统计分析，包括活动区的面积、型别、磁结构、半影纤维等，结果表明：７５％的质子耀斑产生于面积为５００≤Ｓｐ≤３０００单位的黑子群中；耀斑爆发前一天及后一天活动区面积有显著减少；质子活动区含δ复杂磁结构的占７０％；具有半影旋涡形态的质子活动区中，约７７％的耀斑发生在旋涡黑子出现以后。     

Spatial distribution of solar flares in 23rd solar cycle

H-alpha flares accompanied by the X-radiation f ?? 10^?6 wm^?2 in power are examined; 2331 flares were registered during the first half of the 23rd solar cycle (1997?C2000). The specific power of the X-radiation of the flares monotonically doubles from the minimum to the maximum of the sunspot. An increase in the number of flares in each solar rotation is nonmonotonic and disproportional to the relative number of sunspots. Several longitudinal intervals with increased flare activity can be distinguished in the entire time interval of five to ten rotations. The longitudinal distributions of flares and boundaries of the sector structures of a large-scale magnetic field differ considerably. This confirms the existence of two types of zero lines; the first type is determined by active regions, and the second one is determined by large-scale structures with weak magnetic fields. The flares concentrate near Hale??s zero lines of the first type.     

An Active Sun Throughout the Maunder Minimum

Measurements of ¹⁰Be concentration in the Dye 3 ice core show that magnetic cycles persisted throughout the Maunder Minimum, although the Sun's overall activity was drastically reduced and sunspots virtually disappeared. Thus the dates of maxima and minima can now be reliably estimated. Similar behaviour is shown by a nonlinear dynamo model, which predicts that, after a grand minimum, the Sun's toroidal field may switch from being antisymmetric to being symmetric about the equator. The presence of cyclic activity during the Maunder Minimum limits estimates of the solar contribution to climatic change.     

10.7-cm Solar radio flux and the magnetic complexity of active regions

During sunspot cycles 20 and 21, the maximum in smoothed 10.7-cm solar radio flux occurred about 1.5 yr after the maximum smoothed sunspot number, whereas during cycles 18 and 19 no lag was observed. Thus, although 10.7-cm radio flux and Zürich suspot number are highly correlated, they are not interchangeable, especially near solar maximum. The 10.7-cm flux more closely follows the number of sunspots visible on the solar disk, while the Zürich sunspot number more closely follows the number of sunspot groups. The number of sunspots in an active region is one measure of the complexity of the magnetic structure of the region, and the coincidence in the maxima of radio flux and number of sunspots apparently reflects higher radio emission from active regions of greater magnetic complexity. The presence of a lag between sunspot-number maximum and radio-flux maximum in some cycles but not in others argues that some aspect of the average magnetic complexity near solar maximum must vary from cycle to cycle. A speculative possibility is that the radio-flux lag discriminates between long-period and short-period cycles, being another indicator that the solar cycle switches between long-period and short-period modes.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. under contract with the National Science Foundation.     

Cosmogenic Isotope Variability During the Maunder Minimum: Normal 11-year Cycles Are Expected

The amplitude of the 11-year cycle measured in the cosmogenic isotope ¹⁰Be during the Maunder Minimum is comparable to that during the recent epoch of high solar activity. Because of the virtual absence of the cyclic variability of sunspot activity during the Maunder Minimum this seemingly contradicts an intuitive expectation that lower activity would result in smaller solar-cycle variations in cosmogenic radio-isotope data, or in none, leading to confusing and misleading conclusions. It is shown here that large 11-year solar cycles in cosmogenic data observed during periods of suppressed sunspot activity do not necessarily imply strong heliospheric fields. Normal-amplitude cycles in the cosmogenic radio-isotopes observed during the Maunder Minimum are consistent with theoretical expectations because of the nonlinear relation between solar activity and isotope production. Thus, cosmogenic-isotope data provide a good tool to study solar-cycle variability even during grand minima of solar activity.     

Erratum to: Width of Sunspot Generating Zone and Reconstruction of Butterfly Diagram

Based on the extended Greenwich – NOAA/USAF catalogue of sunspot groups, it is demonstrated that the parameters describing the latitudinal width of the sunspot generating zone (SGZ) are closely related to the current level of solar activity, and the growth of the activity leads to the expansion of the SGZ. The ratio of the sunspot number to the width of the SGZ shows saturation at a certain level of the sunspot number, and above this level the increase of the activity takes place mostly due to the expansion of the SGZ. It is shown that the mean latitudes of sunspots can be reconstructed from the amplitudes of solar activity. Using the obtained relations and the group sunspot numbers by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys. 179, 189, 1998), the latitude distribution of sunspot groups (“the Maunder butterfly diagram”) for the eighteenth and the first half of the nineteenth centuries is reconstructed and compared with historical sunspot observations.     

An Upper Limit on Sunspot Activity During the Maunder Minimum

We have estimated the upper and lower limits of sunspot activity, in terms of active day fraction during the Maunder minimum (1645–1710), using raw information on individual daily observations (Hoyt and Schatten, 1998). Establishing the relation between the sunspot activity and active day fraction after 1850, we evaluate the upper limit of annual group sunspot number during the deep Maunder minimum (1645–1700) which does not exceed 4. The earlier finding of a dominant 22-year periodicity during the Maunder minimum is verified and shown to be robust. Also we confirm that the start of the Maunder minimum was very abrupt.     

The Association of Solar Flares with Coronal Mass Ejections During the Extended Solar Minimum

We study the association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the deep, extended solar minimum of 2007?–?2009, using extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light (coronagraph) images from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). Although all of the fast (v>900 km?s^?1), wide (θ>100^°) CMEs are associated with a flare that is at least identified in GOES soft X-ray light curves, a majority of flares with relatively high X-ray intensity for the deep solar minimum (e.g. ?1×10^?6 W?m^?2 or C1) are not associated with CMEs. Intense flares tend to occur in active regions with a strong and complex photospheric magnetic field, but the active regions that produce CME-associated flares tend to be small, including those that have no sunspots and therefore no NOAA active-region numbers. Other factors on scales similar to and larger than active regions seem to exist that contribute to the association of flares with CMEs. We find the possible low coronal signatures of CMEs, namely eruptions, dimmings, EUV waves, and Type III bursts, in 91 %, 74 %, 57 %, and 74 %, respectively, of the 35 flares that we associate with CMEs. None of these observables can fully replace direct observations of CMEs by coronagraphs.     

Non-topological solitons as the possible origin of intrinsic extragalactic redshifts

The eleven-year sunspot cycles are considered to represent one of the solar activities. The daily observations of the sunspots in the KAAU Solar Observatory (KAAUSO) have been utilised to reduce a period of the present solar cycle, using Fourier technique. The highest peak in the amplitude spectrum was for a frequency of 0.00029 day^–1, for which the maximum occurred mid 1990.     

A Statistical Study of Rapid Sunspot Structure Change Associated with Flares

We reported recently some rapid changes of sunspot structure in white-light(WL) associated with major flares.We extend the study to smaller events and present here results of a statistical study of this phenomenon.In total,we investigate 403 events from 1998 May 9 to 2004 July 17,including 40 X-class,174 M-class,and 189 C-class flares.By monitoring the structure of the flaring active regions using the WL observations from the Transition Region and Coronal Explorer(TRACE),we find that segments in the outer sunspot structure decayed rapidly right after many flares;and that,on the other hand,the central part of sunspots near the flare-associated magnetic neutral line became darkened.These rapid and permanent changes are evidenced in the time profiles of WL mean intensity and are not likely resulted from the flare emissions.Our study further shows that the outer sunspot structure decay as well as the central structure darkening are more likely to be detected in larger solar flares.For X-class flares,over 40% events show distinct sunspot structure change.For M-and C-class flares,this percentage drops to 17% and 10%,respectively.The results of this statistical study support our previously proposed reconnection picture,i.e.,the flare-related magnetic fields evolve from a highly inclined to a more vertical configuration.     

Comparison of the Variations of CMEs and ICMEs with those of other Solar and Interplanetary Parameters During Solar Cycle 23

This paper examines the variations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) during solar cycle 23 and compares these with those of several other indices. During cycle 23, solar and interplanetary parameters had an increase from 1996 (sunspot minimum) to ∼2000, but the interval 1998–2002 had short-term fluctuations. Sunspot numbers had peaks in 1998, 1999, 2000 (largest), 2001 (second largest), and 2002. Other solar indices had matching peaks, but the peak in 2000 was larger than the peak in 2001 only for a few indices, and smaller or equal for other solar indices. The solar open magnetic flux had very different characteristics for different solar latitudes. The high solar latitudes (45^∘–90^∘) in both N and S hemispheres had flux evolutions anti-parallel to sunspot activity. Fluxes in low solar latitudes (0^∘–45^∘) evolved roughly parallel to sunspot activity, but the finer structures (peaks etc. during sunspot maximum years) did not match with sunspot peaks. Also, the low latitude fluxes had considerable N–S asymmetry. For CMEs and ICMEs, there were increases similar to sunspots during 1996–2000, and during 2000–2002, there was good matching of peaks. But the peaks in 2000 and 2001 for CMEs and ICMEs had similar sizes, in contrast to the 2000 peak being greater than the 2001 peak for sunspots. Whereas ICMEs started decreasing from 2001 onwards, CMEs continued to remain high in 2002, probably due to extra contribution from high-latitude prominences, which had no equivalent interplanetary ICMEs or shocks. Cosmic ray intensity had features matching with those of sunspots during 2000–2001, with the 2000 peak (on a reverse scale, actually a cosmic ray decrease or trough) larger than the 2001 peak. However, cosmic ray decreases started with a delay and ended with a delay with respect to sunspot activity.