Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Main Seismogenic Zones in North Algeria

—A seismogenic zoning for north Algeria is proposed. The characteristics of each zone are studied in detail and different statistical analyses are performed in order to assess the slope of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, the mean annual activity rate of earthquakes, the average return period, the probability of non-exceedence during a time period and the maximum expected magnitude. The slope of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship determined by traditional methods, physical strain energy release and corresponding magnitude, together with a new approach based on both historical and instrumental data, are used to estimate the seismic hazard parameters.¶The seismic hazard parameters obtained described well the characteristics of each proposed seismogenic zone. The b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship concurs especially well with the most common seismotectonic interpretation of each zone, for example 0.70 ± 0.06 at El Asnam region and 0.63 ± 0.09 around Algiers. The average return period obtained (approximately 300 years for magnitude 7.5 at El Asnam region, exceeding 1000 years in other regions), corroborate those obtained through Paleoseismic studies and others using a digital elevation model.     

Macroseismic Parameters of Seismogenic Zones of Calabria and Sicily for Seismic Hazard Evaluation

For the seismic hazard evaluation of the region including the southern Calabro-Peloritanian Arc and southeastern Sicily, the determination of the macroseismic virtual intensity distributions has been carried out, characteristic of the seismogenic zones that fall within the area in study, starting with the structural framework of the region and from the analysis of the observed intensity effected through suitable filters. The macroseismic parameters, derived from such virtual distributions and used for seismic hazard evaluation, are not only a reference for eventual subsequently deeper knowledge referable to the need for a better characterization of the reference modelling, but distinguish themselves as an essential instrument for the definition of seismic hazard scenarios correlated to seismic events that take place in single seismogenic zones.     

Site-specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map of Himachal Pradesh,India. Part II. Hazard Estimation

This article presents site-specific probable seismic hazard of the Himachal Pradesh province, situated in a seismically active region of northwest Himalaya, using the ground motion relations presented in a companion article. Seismic recurrence parameters for all the documented probable sources are established from an updated earthquake catalogue. The contour maps of probable spectral acceleration at 0, 0.2, and 1 s (5% damping) are presented for 475 and 2475 years return periods. Also, the hazard curves and uniform hazard response spectrums are presented for all the important cities in this province. Results indicate that the present codal provision underestimates the seismic hazard at cities of Bilaspur, Shimla, Hamirpur, Chamba, Mandi, and Solan. In addition, regions near Bilaspur and Chamba exhibit higher hazard levels than what is reported in literature.     

考虑俯冲带潜在震源区的地震危险性算法研究及在中国海域的应用

本文研究了俯冲带潜在震源区离散化方法及考虑俯冲带高震级地震震源破裂面和震源深度的场点地震动计算方法,推导了俯冲带潜在震源区地震危险性计算公式,并使用中国海域及邻区地震危险性模型进行地震危险性试算。结果表明,本文建立的考虑俯冲带潜在震源区的地震危险性算法能够实现场点地震危险性计算时对俯冲带高震级地震震源破裂面和震源深度的考虑。     

Seismic Hazard in Terms of Spectral Accelerations and Uniform Hazard Spectra in Northern Algeria

Seismic hazard in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) has been estimated for the first time in northern Algeria. For this purpose, we have used the spatially-smoothed seismicity approach. The present paper is intended to be a continuation of previous work in which we have evaluated the seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) using the same methodology. To perform these evaluations, four complete and Poissonian seismic models have been used. One of them considers earthquakes with magnitudes above M_S 6.5 in the last 300 years, that is, the most energetic seismicity in the region. Firstly, seismic hazard maps in terms of SA, at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 sec, with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, have been obtained. Therefore, uniform hazard spectra (UHS) are computed and examined in detail for twelve of the most industrial and populated cities in northern Algeria. All the reported results in this study are for rock soil and 5% of damping. It is noteworthy that, in the seismic hazard maps as well as in the UHS plots, we observe maximum SA values in the central area of the Tell. The higher values are reached in the Chleff region (previously El Asnam), specifically around the location of the destructive earthquakes of September 9, 1954 (M_S 6.8), and October 10, 1980 (M_S 7.3). These maximum values, 0.4 g and 1.0 g, are associated with periods of about 0.2 and 0.3 sec for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively.     

Analysis of Tectonic Conditions for Strong Earthquakes and Prediction of Seismic Risk of Seismogenic Fault Zones in the Northern Part of North China

The tectonic conditions for strong earthquakes are complicated in various aspects.The genetic conditions for strong earthquakes were studied from the angle of various disciplines.About 20 conditions belonging to different fields have been described by predecessors.In this paper,the authors try to study and evaluate all the tectonic condition factors for strong earthquakes by the methods of fuzzy mathematics and hierarchical analysis.Taking the northern part of North China as an example,the authors make a comprehensive digital analysis of all the quantitative and semi-quantitative tectonic factors.The credibility values of all strong earthquakes with different magnitudes are given after statistical analysis and calculation.Forty-one fault zones in the study region are quantitatively analyzed,and the potential seismogenic fault zones,maximum magnitude,and risk of earthquake occurrence in the near future are assessed.The result of synthetic evaluation,based on all tectonic conditions of different categorie     

Site-specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map of Himachal Pradesh,India. Part I. Site-specific Ground Motion Relations

This article presents four regional site-specific ground motion relations developed for the state of Himachal Pradesh in northwest Himalaya, situated in a seismically active region. These relations are developed from synthetic free surface ground motion databases obtained from a calibrated stochastic seismological model considering the characteristic properties of this specific region. The adopted methodology incorporates the site effects characterised through active MASW tests conducted in 22 important cities. The estimated ground motion levels from the developed relations are found to be in reasonable agreement with the recorded data.     

汾渭带和华北平原带强震活动的群集特征

根据描述地震活动时间间隔统计特征的系数Ｃｖ，汾渭带和华北平原带强震活动（ＭＳ≥７．０和Ｍｓ≥６．０）过程显示出明显的非泊松的群集统计特征（Ｃｖ＞１）；对于自公元５００年以来的Ｍｓ≥７．０大地震活动过程，其累计频度（ΣＮ）表现出满足ｌｎ（ｌｎΣＮ）＝Ａ＋Ｂｔ关系的逐步加速释放能量的群集时间结构；对于自公元１０００年以来的Ｍｓ≥６．０强地震活动过程，则表现出几十年－几百年尺度的密集和平静交替发生的幕式群集时间结构。     

1936年天水南6级地震震害特征与发震构造

通过对历史地震资料的系统收集整理、现场调查及烈度点评估等工作,对1936年天水南6级地震等震线重新进行了改绘,并对此次地震的震害特征、等震线特征及其与活动构造间的关系进行了研究。结果表明,此次地震极震区最大烈度为Ⅷ度,集中位于天水镇及其以北地区;NEE向的礼县-罗家堡断裂中东段基本与此次地震重破坏区长轴线重合,应为此次地震的发震断裂;由于受NWW向西秦岭北缘断裂带与NNW向六盘山断裂带2条区域深大断裂及北部黄土区的影响,低烈度等震线长轴方向逆时针旋转,地震动及烈度向北衰减变缓,地震等震线呈现明显的南北衰减不对称性。     

Seismogenic potential and earthquake hazard assessment in the Tell Atlas of Algeria

Seismotectonic zonation studies in the Tell Atlas of Algeria, a branch of the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, provide a valuable input for deterministic seismic hazard calculations. We delineate a number of seismogenic zones from causal relationships established between geological structures and earthquakes and compile a working seismic catalogue mainly from readily available sources. To this catalogue, for a most rational and best-justified hazard analysis, we add estimates of earthquake size translated from active faulting characteristics. We assess the regional seismic hazard using a deterministic procedure based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms (up to 1 Hz) by the modal summation technique. As a result, we generate seismic hazard maps of maximum velocity, maximum displacement, and design ground acceleration that blend information from geology, historical seismicity and observational seismology, leading to better estimates of the earthquake hazard throughout northern Algeria. Our analysis and the resulting maps illustrate how different the estimate of seismic hazard is based primarily on combined geologic and seismological data with respect to the one for which only information from earthquake catalogues has been used.     

大华北地区地震灾害与风险评估

地震灾害与风险是两个本质不同的概念：地震灾害是指由地震所引起的自然现象,而地震风险是指由地震灾害所导致人类及其环境破坏的可能性。在考虑抗震设防时,地震风险是更为重要的因素。本文首先对地震灾害与风险这两个概念进行探讨,然后利用500年的历史地震烈度资料对大华北地区的地震灾害和风险进行评估。研究结果表明,大华北地区具有较高的地震灾害和地震风险,尤其是鄂尔多斯周缘和京津唐地区;研究区内很多城市现行的抗震设防要求可能偏低。     

Background Seismicity and Its Application to Seismic Hazard Assessment in the North China Region

The historical earthquake activity is intense in the North China region. However, no middle-sized earthquakes have occurred in the last decades in the region since the MS6.2 earthquake in the Zhangbei region in 1998. The quiescence of moderate and strong earthquakes is quite prominent in North China. In this paper, we use small earthquake records in 1970~2009 to study background seismic activity in the North China region. The spatial distributions of seismic parameters are presented, including b-value, the maximum magnitude and annual occurrence probability of earthquakes of M≥6.0. Our results show regions with low b-value that include the Yuncheng region in the Shanxi rift, the Suqian region located in the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone and the Shijiazhuang region in the Taihangshan block. Our analysis on the synthetic spatial pattern of seismicity indicate that seismicity in the North China region is mainly affected by the regional dynamic factors of deep structures.     

华北地区的背景地震活动及区域未来强震危险性

华北地区的历史强震活动非常频繁。 然而, 自1998年张北M_S6.2地震以来, 该地区已经经历了10多年的地震平静期, 中强震平静现象比较突出。 本文利用1970年至2009年的小震资料, 对华北地区的背景地震活动进行分析, 给出了地震活动性参数b值、 最大震级以及强震复发间隔和强震年平均发生概率的空间分布。 b值空间分布表明, 山西构造带的运城地区, 郯庐断裂带的宿迁地区以及太行山块体内部的石家庄地区的b值较低。 地震活动性参数的综合空间图像表明华北地区的地震活动主要受区域深部动力因素所控制。     

Seismic Hazard Analysis Using the Adaptive Kernel Density Estimation Technique for Chennai City

Conventional method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using the Cornell–McGuire approach requires identification of homogeneous source zones as the first step. This criterion brings along many issues and, hence, several alternative methods to hazard estimation have come up in the last few years. Methods such as zoneless or zone-free methods, modelling of earth’s crust using numerical methods with finite element analysis, have been proposed. Delineating a homogeneous source zone in regions of distributed seismicity and/or diffused seismicity is rather a difficult task. In this study, the zone-free method using the adaptive kernel technique to hazard estimation is explored for regions having distributed and diffused seismicity. Chennai city is in such a region with low to moderate seismicity so it has been used as a case study. The adaptive kernel technique is statistically superior to the fixed kernel technique primarily because the bandwidth of the kernel is varied spatially depending on the clustering or sparseness of the epicentres. Although the fixed kernel technique has proven to work well in general density estimation cases, it fails to perform in the case of multimodal and long tail distributions. In such situations, the adaptive kernel technique serves the purpose and is more relevant in earthquake engineering as the activity rate probability density surface is multimodal in nature. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) obtained from all the three approaches (i.e., the Cornell–McGuire approach, fixed kernel and adaptive kernel techniques) for 10% probability of exceedance in 50?years is around 0.087?g. The uniform hazard spectra (UHS) are also provided for different structural periods.     

Seismic Observations and Seismic Hazard Studies in the Philippines

It has taken more than a hundred years for seismic observations in the Philippines to evolve to a modern observation system.The responsibility of seismic observations was likewise transfeered from one agency to another during this same period of time.At present,the mandate of conducting seismic observatins in the Philippines rests with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology(PHIVOLCS),In 2000,through a grant aid from the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA),the Philippine Seismic netowrk was upgraded to a digital system.As a result,a new set of seismic monitoring equipments was installed in all of the 34 PHIVOLCS seismic stations all over the country,Digital waveforms are now available for high level seismic data processing.and data acquisition and processing are now automated.Included in the upgrade is the provision of strong motion accelerographs in all stations whose data can now be used for studying ground motion and intensity attenuation relations,The new setup is now producing high-resolution data that can now be used for conducting basic seismological researches,Earthquake locations have now improved allowing for the modeling and delineation of earthquake source regions necessary for earthquake hazard studies.Current seismic hazard studies in the Philippines involve the estimation of ground motion using both probabilitstic and deterministic approaches,seismic microzonation studies of key cities using microtremor observations,paleoseismology and active faults mapping ,and identification of liquefaction-prone,landslide-prone nd tsunami-affected areas.The earthquake database is now being reviewed and completed with the addition of historical events and from data from regional databases,While studies of seismic hazards were primarily concentrated on a regional level ,PHIVOLCS is now focusing on doing these seismic hazard studies on a micriolevel.For Metro Manila,first generation hazard maps showing ground rupture,ground shaking and liquefaction hazards have recently been completed.Other large cities that are also at risk from large earthquakes are the next targets.The elements at risk such as population,lifelines,and vertical and horizontal structures for each of these urban centers are also being incorporated in the hazard maps for immediate use of planners,civil defense officials,policy-makers and engineers.The maps can also now be used to describe possible scenarios during times of strong events and how appropriate socio-economic and engineering responses could be designed.In addition,a rapid earthquake damage assessment system has been started which will attempt to produce immediate or rapid assessments identification of elements at risk durin times of strong earthquakes     

基于广义帕累托分布的马尼拉海沟俯冲带地震危险性估计

选取马尼拉海沟俯冲带作为潜源区, 基于广义帕累托分布, 通过对一定时段内超过某一阈值的震级数据进行拟合, 建立该潜源区地震危险性估计模型, 估计强震重现水平和震级上限, 并对估计结果的不确定性进行了分析, 得到马尼拉海沟俯冲带震级上限为9.0级, 10 a、 50 a、 100 a、 200 a马尼拉海沟俯冲带的震级重现水平期望值分别为7.1级、 7.6级、 7.7级、 7.9级。     

利用背景噪声估计华北地区场地放大效应

用噪声互相关函数聚束方法得到中国华北地区噪声源的极值方位和慢度,然后将噪声傅里叶谱在该方位和慢度点进行聚束,并计算得到噪声的频率波数功率谱。将该功率谱作为输入,单台站噪声的自功率谱作为响应,二者的比值可用于计算华北地区相对场地放大因子。计算结果显示:平原地区放大效应明显大于山地地区,而平原地区的场地放大效应与渤海湾盆地沉积层厚度有直接关联。本研究可为计算场地放大效应提供一种可行的途径。