Induced seismicity at wujiangdu reservoir,China: a case induced in the karst area

To date 19 cases of reservoir-induced seismicity have been acknowledged in China and 15 of them are associated with karst. The Wujiangdu case is a typical one induced in the karst area. The dam with a height of 165 m is the highest built in a karst area in China. Seismic activity has been successively induced in five reservoir segments seven months after the impoundment in 1979. A temporary seismic network consisting of 8 stations was set up in one of the segments some 40 km upstream from the dam. The results indicate that epicenters were distributed along the immediate banks, composed of karstified carbonate, and focal depths were only several hundred meters. Most of the focal mechanisms were of thrust and normal faulting. It is suggested that karst may be an important factor in inducing seismicity. It can provide an hydraulic connection to change the saturation and pressure and also weak planes for dislocation to induce seismicity.     

Faulting, shallow seismicity and seismic hazard analysis for the Costa Rican Central Valley

Faulting, shallow seismicity (0–30 km), and seismic hazard of the Costa Rican Central Valley were analyzed. Faults in the study area are oriented northwest or northeast. There is an active fault system in the south flank of the Central Volcanic Ridge and another in the north flank of the Talamanca Ridge. Faults of these systems have generated 15 destructive earthquakes in the area during the last 228 years all of them shallow and their locations show one cluster near the Poas Volcano and another southward the Central Valley. These earthquakes have damaged cities of the Central Valley, two of them destroyed Cartago city and almost 1000 people were killed. Regarding recent seismicity, there are three main seismic sources at the Central Volcanic Ridge: Irazu, Bajo de la Hondura and Poas and other three in the Talamanca Ridge: Puriscal, Los Santos and Pejibaye.A seismic hazard map for the Metropolitan Area of San José has been elaborated, based on local tectonic and seismic information. The area for the hazard computation covers an area of 20×15 km² and includes the zone where the most population and socioeconomic activities are concentrated. The computation analysis are based on areas zones and faults, each one characterized by recurrence parameters, geometry, minimum and maximum magnitude and source depth. A recent local spectral attenuation model, which includes relations for shallow crustal sources and subduction zone earthquakes, has been applied in this study. The seismic hazard results are presented in terms of contour plots of estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA) for bedrock conditions for return period of 50, 100 and 500 years. In the Central Park of San Jose City the following PGA values were found: 0.29g for 50 years, 0.36g for 100 years, and 0.53g for 500 years.     

The reservoir-associated earthquakes of April 1983 in western Thailand: Source modeling and implications for induced seismicity

On 22 April 1983, a very large area of Thailand and part of Burma were strongly shaken by a rare earthquake (m _b=5.8,M _s=5.9). The epicenter was located at the Srinagarind reservoir about 190 km northwest of Bangkok, a relatively stable continental region that experienced little previous seismicity. The main shock was preceded by some foreshocks and followed by numerous aftershocks. The largest foreshock ofm _b=5.2 occurred 1 week before the main shock, and the largest aftershock ofm _b=5.3 took place about 3 hours after the main shock. Focal mechanisms of the three largest events in this earthquake sequence have been studied by other seismologists using firts-motion data. However, the solutions for the main shock and the largest aftershock showed significant inconsistency with known surface geology and regional tectonics. We reexamined the mechanisms of these three events by using teleseismicP-andS-waveforms and through careful readings ofP-wave first motions. The directions of theP axes in our study range from NNW-SSE to NNE-SSW, and nodal planes strike in the NW-SE to about E-W in agreement with regional tectonics and surface geology. The main shock mechanism strikes 255°, dips 48°, and slips 63.5°. The fault motions during the main shock and the foreshock are mainly thrust, while the largest aftershock has a large strike-slip component. The seismic moment and the stress drop of the mainshock are determined to be 3.86×10²⁴ dyne-cm and 180 bars, respectively. The occurrence of these thrust events appears to correlate with the unloading of the Srinagarind reservoir. The focal depths of the largest foreshock, the main shock, and the largest aftershock are determined to be 5.4 km, 8 km, and 22.7 km, respectively, from waveform modeling and relative location showing a downward migration of hypocenters of the three largest events during the earthquake sequence. Other characteristics of this reservoir-induced earthquake sequence are also discussed.     

长江三峡工程库首区胡家坪 M_S4.1水库诱发地震研究

本文在系统收集有关资料并对地震现场进行考察的基础上,分析了2008年11月22日发生在秭归县归州镇香溪村胡家坪 M_S4.1级地震及其发生的地质-水文地质与地震活动背景条件,介绍了地震灾害. 并进一步讨论了相关的地震前兆异常、地震成因等科学问题,认为该地震是在水库水体荷载与库水下渗的共同作用下沿仙女山断裂发生的构造型水库诱发地震, 并认为震前有一定的前兆异常,这个地震的发生除了水库蓄水作用之外,可能还与汶川地震对该区应力场的影响有关.     

Characteristics of the low energy seismicity of central Apulia (southern Italy) and hazard implications

The central part of the Apulia region, in southern Italy, has been generally considered practically free from significant level of seismicity, but historical documentation, geological indicators and recent instrumental observations suggest that the activity of local minor tectonic structures could have been masked (and partly also induced) by that of major seismogenic structures located in the neighbouring regions. A revision of the central Apulia seismicity characteristics was conducted considering its space and time distribution, energy release rate and focal mechanisms, in view of possible hazard implications. To better constrain the seismicity rates inferable from the set of available historical data, special attention was paid to the declustering of a catalogue of low energy events (magnitude < 3.5) instrumentally detected in about 20 years: a new declustering procedure, useful for cases like to the one at hand, was purposely devised taking into account the peculiarity of local seismicity characteristics and the limitations of the available database. The results obtained by combining instrumental and historical data show that this area is affected by a rather sporadic seismicity, likely associated to a general tensional regime and possibly stimulated by the interaction with Apenninic and northern Apulia seismogenic activity. Even though less energetic, the local seismicity contributes to increase the moderately damaging shaking probability due to the activity of seismic sources located in the near areas, so to justify the adoption of at least a minimum level of caution in relation to the local definition of seismic protection measures.     

空间光滑地震活动性模型中光滑函数的比较研究

使用Frankel提出的基于空间光滑地震活动性模型的地震危险性分析方法,选择华南、华北、川滇3个地区的地震记录,比较分析了高斯、幂律和地震分形分布光滑函数3种光滑函数在不同地区的适用性．结果表明,使用交叉验证法可以为高斯光滑函数选取合适的相关距离c值,光滑得到的地震活动性模型能够真实反映研究区域的地震活动特征,根据活动性模型计算得出的峰值加速度(PGA)分布也符合人们对研究区域地震危险性的认识．幂律光滑函数适用于地震活动性较强的地区,且具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．光滑程度较低的幂律光滑函数不适用于地震活动性弱的地区,在该类地区应选择光滑程度较高的高斯光滑函数．地震分形分布光滑函数不适用于地震活动较强且地震活动强度差异较大的地区,其容易过分高估高震级地震对地震危险性的影响,而忽略了低震级地震对地震危险性的贡献．但对于地震活动较弱且地震活动强度差异较小的地区,可使用地震分形分布光滑函数,且同样具有容易求取光滑参数的优点．     

A 15-year-Long catalog of seismicity in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) using matched filter detection

We present a detailed catalog of 13 671 earthquakes in the Eastern Tennessee Seismic Zone (ETSZ) that spans January 1, 2005 to July 31, 2020. We apply a matched filter detection technique on over 15 years of continuous data, resulting in arguably the most complete catalog of seismicity in the ETSZ yet. The magnitudes of newly detected events are determined by computing the amplitude ratio between the detections and templates using a principal component fit. We also compute the b-value for the new catalog and comparatively relocate a subset of newly detected events using XCORLOC and hypoDD, which shows a more defined structure at depth. We find the greatest concentration along and to the east of the New York-Alabama Lineament, as defined by the magnetic anomaly, supporting the argument that this feature likely is related to the generation of seismicity in the ETSZ. We examine seismicity in the vicinity of the Watts Bar Reservoir, which is located about 5 ?km from the epicenter of the M_W 4.4 December 12, 2018 Decatur, Tennessee earthquake, and find possible evidence for reservoir modulated seismicity in this region. We also examine seismicity in the entire ETSZ to search for a correlation between shallow earthquakes and seasonal hydrologic changes. Our results show limited evidence for hydrologically-driven shallow seismicity due to seasonal groundwater levels in the ETSZ, which contradicts previous studies hypothesizing that most intraplate earthquakes are associated with the dynamics of hydrologic cycles.     

Induced seismicity in the Khibiny Massif (Kola Peninsula)

The topic of this paper is to review recent processes of increasing seismic activity in the Khibiny Massif in the Kcla Peninsula. It is a typical example of induced seismicity caused by rock deformation due to the extraction of more than 2·10⁹ tons of rock mass since the mid-1960s. The dependence of seismic activity on the amount of extracted ore is demonstrated. Some of the induced earthquakes coincide with large mining explosions, thus indicating a trigger mechanism. The largest earthquake, which occurred on 16 April 1989 (M _L= 4.1) could be traced along the surface for 1200 m and observed to a depth of at least 220 m. The maximum measured displacement was 15–20 cm.     

水库诱发地震时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的关系——以紫坪铺水库为例

为了解水库蓄水过程中,水库诱发地震活动的动态响应机制,本文建立了针对水库诱发地震(Reservoir-induced seismicity,RIS)定量化研究的数理模型,并以紫坪铺水库为例,对库区地质构造及水文地质结构条件、水库蓄水后库区小震活动时空演化特征进行了详细的研究.在此基础上,利用有限元方法计算了水库蓄水过程中弹性附加应力场、有效附加应力场、孔隙压力和断层稳定性的动态变化,讨论了RIS时空演化与库水加卸载及渗透过程的动态响应关系.结果表明:(1) RIS诱发机制的定量化模型可分为2个层次:一是以孔隙介质为载体的流体渗流对岩体变形和稳定性的影响,由流-固耦合形式的岩体变形与孔隙渗流模型进行描述;二是对断层相关的RIS定量研究可将水库附加水头压力沿断层面(区)的扩散与断层库仑应力变化联系起来.两种形式模型方法的结合能为RIS定量研究提供一个相对宏观的力学框架;(2) 断裂渗透结构对孔隙压力变化下断裂的力学响应具有重要的影响,研究区主干断裂可能属于一种上盘破碎带导水、下盘地层及断层核阻水的下阻上导型的渗透结构类型,不同程度的具有使地表水体向深部渗流的通道性.库区深部岩体渗透稳定性的差异在很大程度上导致了诱发地震活动对岩性条件的依赖.(3) 紫坪铺水库蓄水后,小震活动在空间分布上呈现出条带状分布、丛集分布和地震迁移的特点,小震震源深度优势分布在地下4~10 km范围内,在通济场断裂与安县—灌县断裂的深部汇聚区域震源分布最为密集.同时,小震活动主要集中发生在脆性程度高、渗透稳定性低的碳酸盐岩地层中,而在岩性较软弱、渗透稳定性高的三叠系须家河组砂泥岩和煤系地层中很少有地震发生.在水库蓄水后地震活动的时间响应特征上,水库西南侧和东北侧两个丛集区的小震活动可能属于快速响应型RIS,而都江堰小震群活动可能属于滞后响应型诱发地震活动;(4) RIS的发生与库水加卸载及渗透过程中库底岩体有效应力的变化密切相关.在以挤压为主的构造应力环境中,库体荷载作用的结果一般会使库底断层更趋向稳定,而水库附加水头压力扩散的效应则是促使断层趋向失稳,正是这个矛盾双方相互制约与平衡的动态过程,控制了断层库仑应力变化的取向,从而决定了RIS时空演化的规律.     

Hypocenter location accuracy and seismicity distribution in the Central Apennines (Italy)

In this paper, we analyse the seismicity distribution in the CentralApennines (Italy) using the recordings of the Rete SismometricaMarchigiana (RSM). In particular, the selected events are relocated usinga 1-D model calculated by means of an inversion procedure. The robustnessof the 1-D model and the location accuracy are tested. The capability ofthe RSM to well constrain crustal and subcrustal events in the studied areais discussed. We find that in the inner side of the chain the seismicity liesin the upper crustal layers, following the structural trend of the Apenninicbelt. A W-deepening of the events is observed in the Apenninic foredeep,where the seismicity is mainly confined in the lower crust. This evidenceimplies the deepening of the brittle to ductile transition. Some well-locatedsubcrustal events are found. Their locations seem to confirm the W-dippingsubduction of the Adriatic lithosphere beneath the Apennines.     

Accounting for source location errors in the bayesian analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard

A method is presented for incorporating the uncertainties associated with hypocentral locations in the formulation of probabilistic models of the time and space distributions of the activity of potential seismic sources, as well as of the resulting seismic hazard functions at sites in their vicinity. For this purpose, a bayesian framework of analysis is adopted, where the probabilistic models considered are assumed to have known forms and uncertain parameters, the distribution of the latter being the result of an a priori assessment and its updating through the incorporation of the direct statistical information, including the uncertainty associated with the relations between the actual hypocentral locations and the reported data. This uncertainty is incorporated in the evaluation of the likelihood function of the parameters to be estimated for a given sample of recorded locations. For the purpose of illustration, the method proposed is applied to the modelling of the seismic sources near a site close to the southern coast of Mexico. The results of two alternate algorithms for the incorporation of location uncertainties are compared with those arising from neglecting those uncertainties. One of them makes use of Monte Carlo simulation, while the other is based on a closed-form analytical integration following the introduction of some simplifying assumptions. For the particular case studied, accounting for location uncertainties gives place to significant changes in the probabilistic models of the seismic sources. Deviations of the same order of magnitude can be ascribed to differences in the mathematical and/or numerical tools used in the uncertainty analysis. The resulting variability of the seismic hazard at the site of interest is less pronounced than that affecting the estimates of activity of individual seismic sources.     

与特征断层结合的地震活动空间光滑模型在衡水市活断层地震危险性评价中的应用

在衡水市活断层地震危险性评价中,应用研究区域的地震活动性数据建立恰当的分布式地震活动性空间光滑模型,并结合断层对周边地震危险性的影响,计算前磨头断裂和衡水断裂在不同超越概率下上限震级分别为6.5、6.0级的区域基岩峰值加速度。研究发现,研究区域内50年超越概率为63%的基岩峰值加速度略有增加;50年超越概率为10%、5%的基岩峰值加速度在断层附近有所增加。研究表明在较低超越概率的情况下,断层周围如深州市、冀州市和衡水市辖区的地震危险性大于其他地区;利用仪器记录资料得到的地震活动性模型并结合断层资料计算出的地震危险性结果能够反映衡水地区现今的地震活动水平和危险性水平。     

地震活动性模拟方法及太原地区地震活动性模拟

本文改进了地震活动性模拟方法,使模型可以使用GPS反演得到的断层滑动速率的结果作为应力加载,进行区域的地震活动性模拟.选取太原地区作为研究区域,模拟并分析太原地区地震活动性.计算太原地区长达20000年的理论地震目录,通过对理论地震目录进行分析发现模拟结果的震级频度关系与实际观测资料具有相似性.太原地区的震级大于6级的模拟地震在时间上表现出很强的随机性,与年平均发生率为0.0129a^-1的Poisson过程对比,当采用卡方检验进行检验时,置信水平达到99.0%;然而,单一断层的强震的时间分布与相应年平均发生率的Poisson分布并不完全相近,部分断层拟合置信水平为90%左右,部分断层置信水平接近为0.这一结果表明,用Poisson过程估计太原地区长期地震发生率是比较合理的,估计单一断层上的地震危险性不是十分合理.地震危险性模拟结果显示,太原盆地地区7级以上地震的复现周期为4000年.

     

基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型

采用了分布式地震活动性模型. 该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时简化了地震危险性概率分析方法. 根据破坏性地震目录建立了3个地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了华北区域内的a值分布特征,使用3种典型的衰减模型,分别计算了50年内超越概率10%, 5%和2%的地震动峰值加速度分布. 其分析结果显示了峰值加速度分布特征与我国第四代区划图大体一致,特定地震活动区（太原、 石家庄等地区）的峰值加速度略高于第四代区划图的结果,而这种峰值加速度分布特征与该地区较高的地震活动性特征是一致的. 概率危险性曲线结果表明,唐山、太原和北京等地区的潜在地震危险性比华北区域内其它城市高.      

位于构造活跃区的小湾水库地震活动特征——基于地震精定位的分析

针对我国在西南构造活跃区修建的水库蓄水与地震活动的关系,本文对蓄水已长达7年并在高水位运维多个周期的云南小湾水库,采用结合波形互相关技术的双差地震定位法对水库库区及周边地区2005年7月至2014年12月发生的M≥1.0级地震进行了精定位处理,结果显示出明显的地震成丛活动特征,库区内外的地震震源深度差别较大.对地震震源深度、地震活动与水库蓄水水位及b值分析结果表明:小湾水库蓄水后地震活动明显增多,有水库触发地震发生,触发地震主要分布在沿黑惠江(A)和澜沧江流域(B、C)的3组地震丛中,且3个区的触发地震类型均为快速响应型;在水库蓄水响应活动最明显的地震丛集区A,展现出明显的随水库蓄水水体渗透发生地震"迁移"活动的现象;但库区内也存在着与蓄水关系不大的可能属于正常构造地震的活动,而库区外的地震活动与水库蓄水没有什么相关性,很可能是属于正常的构造地震.综合断层展布、岩性分布及震源深度分析,认为水库蓄水引起的溶岩作用和渗透作用及断层活动可能是小湾水库触发地震的主控因素.     

Seismic hazard estimation based on the distributed seismicity in northern China

In this paper, we have proposed an alternative seismic hazard modeling by using distributed seismicites. The distributed seismicity model does not need delineation of seismic source zones, and simplify the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Based on the devastating earthquake catalogue, we established three seismi- city model, derived the distribution of a-value in northern China by using Gaussian smoothing function, and cal-culated peak ground acceleration distributions for this area with 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period by using three attenuation models, respectively. In general, the peak ground motion distribution patterns are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China, but in some specific seismic zones which in-clude Shanxi Province and Shijiazhuang areas, our results indicated a little bit higher peak ground motions and zonation characters which are in agreement with seismicity distribution patterns in these areas. The hazard curves have been developed for Beijing, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Tangshan, and Ji’nan, the metropolitan cities in the northern China. The results showed that Tangshan, Taiyuan, Beijing has a higher seismic hazard than that of other cities mentioned above.     

Seismic Hazard in Terms of Spectral Accelerations and Uniform Hazard Spectra in Northern Algeria

Seismic hazard in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) has been estimated for the first time in northern Algeria. For this purpose, we have used the spatially-smoothed seismicity approach. The present paper is intended to be a continuation of previous work in which we have evaluated the seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) using the same methodology. To perform these evaluations, four complete and Poissonian seismic models have been used. One of them considers earthquakes with magnitudes above M_S 6.5 in the last 300 years, that is, the most energetic seismicity in the region. Firstly, seismic hazard maps in terms of SA, at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 sec, with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, have been obtained. Therefore, uniform hazard spectra (UHS) are computed and examined in detail for twelve of the most industrial and populated cities in northern Algeria. All the reported results in this study are for rock soil and 5% of damping. It is noteworthy that, in the seismic hazard maps as well as in the UHS plots, we observe maximum SA values in the central area of the Tell. The higher values are reached in the Chleff region (previously El Asnam), specifically around the location of the destructive earthquakes of September 9, 1954 (M_S 6.8), and October 10, 1980 (M_S 7.3). These maximum values, 0.4 g and 1.0 g, are associated with periods of about 0.2 and 0.3 sec for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively.     

Seismic hazard assessment for the Itoiz dam site (Western Pyrenees,Spain)

This work summarises the seismic hazard analysis performed for the complete characterisation of strong ground-motion at the site of the Itoiz dam (Western Pyrenees, Spain). The hazard analysis includes the compilation of a composite catalogue from French and Spanish agencies, the definition of an original hybrid seismogenic source model (including zones and major faults) and the selection of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Hazard results are provided as hazard curves and acceleration response spectra on rock for the 1000- and 5000-year return periods, which correspond respectively to the operating basis earthquake (OBE) and safety evaluation earthquake (SEE). The impact of truncating GMPEs at a number of standard deviations (epsilon) has been found not critical here for the return periods targeted. Subsequently, an analysis of the contribution of each source to total hazard and a hazard disaggregation analysis are performed in order to establish the earthquake-source parameters for both the OBE and SEE scenarios consistently with the seismotectonics of the region. The European Strong Motion database is then searched and a selection of records is proposed for each of the scenarios. Our results suggest that seismic hazard in the region is underestimated by the official Spanish seismic hazard map included in the current version of the code (NCSE-02), which is the reference document for the definition of seismic actions for dam projects in the whole Pyrenees.     

Seismicity and Seismic Hazard in Alexandria (Egypt) and its Surroundings

— Alexandria City has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from near and distant sources, both in historical and recent times. Sometimes the source of such damages is not well known. Seismogenic zones such as the Red Sea, Gulf of Aqaba-Dead Sea Hellenic Arc, Suez-Cairo-Alexandria, Eastern-Mediterranean-Cairo-Faiyoum and the Egyptian costal area are located in the vicinity of this city. The Egyptian coastal zone has the lowest seismicity, and therefore, its tectonic setting is not well known. The 1998 Egyptian costal zone earthquake is a moderate complex source. It is composed of two subevents separated by 4 sec. The first subevent initiated at a depth of 28 km and caused a rupture of strike (347°), dip (29°) and slip (125°). The second subevent occurred at a shallower depth (24 km) and has a relatively different focal parameter (strike 334°, dip 60° and slip 60°). The available focal mechanisms strongly support the manifestation of a complex stress regime from the Hellenic Arc into the Alexandria offshore area. In the present study a numerical modeling technique is applied to estimate quantitative seismic hazard in Alexandria. In terms of seismic hazard, both local and remote earthquakes have a tremendous affect on this city. A local earthquake with magnitude M_s = 6.7 at the offshore area gives peak ground acceleration up to 300 cm/sec². The total duration of shaking expected from such an earthquake is about three seconds. The Fourier amplitude spectra of the ground acceleration reveals that the maximum energy is carried by the low frequency (1–3 Hz), part of the seismic waves. The largest response spectra at Alexandria city is within this frequency band. The computed ground accelerations due to strong earthquakes in the Hellenic Arc, Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba are very small (less than 10 cm/sec²) although with long duration (up to 3 minutes).     

Present-day seismicity of the south-eastern Elbe Fault System (NE Bohemian Massif)

The Variscan Bohemian Massif is disrupted by the NW-SE striking Elbe Fault System in its northern part. The increased tectonic activity associated with this structure is manifested by increased seismicity in the eastern part of the Sudetes. With the use of a temporary local seismic network, the total number of micro-earthquakes located in this region increased to 153 for the period 1996–2003. The local magnitudes vary between −0.6 and 1.8 and the seismic energy was often released in swarm-like sequences. Five seismic events with well-defined P-onset polarities at five or six stations enabled the estimation of focal mechanisms. The present-day activity of the WNW-ESE to NNW-SSE fault systems is discussed on the basis of source mechanisms, the alignment of the epicentres, as well as morphological and geological evidence. The majority of the recent seismic activity is concentrated in a 40–60 km wide zone of a generally NW-SE trend. This structure represents a regional zone of weakness within the SE termination of the Elbe Fault System, defined by a mesh of interconnected faults, of which many are deep-seated and highly permeable and some are associated with light to moderate historical earthquakes. Both in the areas due south and due north of this zone the present-day seismic activity is very low. The increased tectonic activity can be interpreted as a result of the abundance of suitably oriented faults and their interconnection into major fault systems, the proximity of the Outer Carpathian indentor and the Cainozoic volcanic and associated recent post-volcanic activity. The similar character of swarms and their coincidence with the post-volcanic activity in the southeastern part of the Elbe Fault System and in some focal zones of the western Bohemian seismically active area suggests that overpressurized fluids may represent a potential swarm-triggering mechanism.