Variations of the Present-Day Annual and Seasonal Runoff in the Far East and Siberia with the Use of Regional Hydrological and Global Climate Models

A method of spatial calibration and verification of regional numerical physically based models of river runoff formation, incorporating runoff formation processes in the main river channel and its tributaries, was used to obtain a statistical estimate of the quality of river runoff calculation by conventional and alternative criteria focused on runoff reproduction in different phases of water regime and the characteristics of its variations. The analysis of the simulation quality of the annual and mean monthly river runoff (average runoff, standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation) at the near-mouth gages over the historical period with boundary conditions represented by data of global climate models showed the results to be satisfactory. This allows the proposed combination of climate and hydrological models to be used to study physically based regional variations of water regime under different physiographic and climatic conditions in the examined river basins with flood runoff regime (the Amur R.) and the predominant snowmelt runoff during spring flood (the Lena R.).     

Current changes in river water regime in the Don River Basin

The formation and distribution of present-day water resources under the effect of changing climate are studied. Seasonal, annual, and many-year variations in the regime of spring-flood and dry-season runoff of rivers with drainage areas from 2000 to 20000 km², reflecting the zonal landscape-climatic conditions of runoff formation, are considered. It is shown that various and often contradictory demands of water users to water supply distribution over seasons of the year result in that the entire water management complex depends on not only the total volume of water resources, but also on the water regime characteristics of rivers in different phases of hydrological year. It was established that the climate changes recorded in the recent decades radically change the pattern of space and time variations in runoff characteristics.     

Assess hydrological responses to a warming climate at the Lysina Critical Zone Observatory in Central Europe

Climate warming is having profound effects on the hydrological cycle by increasing atmospheric demand, changing water availability, and snow seasonality. Europe suffered three distinct heat waves in 2019, and 11 of the 12 hottest years ever recorded took place in the past two decades, which will potentially change seasonal streamflow patterns and long-term trends. Central Europe exhibited six dry years in a row since 2014. This study uses data from a well-documented headwater catchment in Central Europe (Lysina) to explore hydrological responses to a warming climate. We applied a lumped parameter hydrologic model Brook90 and a distributed model Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM) to simulate long-term hydrological change under future climate scenarios. Both models performed well on historic streamflow and in agreement with each other according to the catchment water budget. In addition, PIHM was able to simulate lateral groundwater redistribution within the catchment validated by the groundwater table dynamics. The long-term trends in runoff and low flow were captured by PIHM only. We applied different EURO-CORDEX models with two emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 4.5, 8.5) and found significant impacts on runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) for the period of 2071–2100. Results from both models suggested reduced runoff and increased ET, while the monthly distribution of runoff was different. We used this catchment study to understand the importance of subsurface processes in projection of hydrologic response to a warming climate.     

Effect of Permafrost Rocks on Water Resources Formation in Eastern Siberia: Case Study of Some Rivers in Eastern Siberia

The study is focused on the specific features of water resources formation in Eastern Siberia under variable climate and regional occurrence of permafrost rocks. Expert estimates are given to the effect of greenhouse gas emissions on climate evolution in this large region. Under present-day climate conditions, featuring temperature rise and some increase in precipitation as resource-forming factors, the most significant changes are shown to have taken place in the formation of water resources and regime of dry-season runoff in individual rivers of Eastern Siberia, including the Lena, Indigirka, Kolyma, etc. Present-day resources of surface water and groundwater resources in the region are mapped and the dynamics of the annual and dryseason runoff of the rivers are plotted.     

A framework for quantifying the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought in a semiarid basin of Northern China

Climate change and human activities are two major driving forces affecting the hydrologic cycle, which further influence the stationarity of the hydrologic regime. Hydrological drought is a substantial negative deviation from the normal hydrologic conditions affected by these two phenomena. In this study, we propose a framework for quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought. First, trend analysis and change‐point test are performed to determine variations of hydrological variables. After that, the fixed runoff threshold level method (TLM) and the standardized runoff index (SRI) are used to verify whether the traditional assessment methods for hydrological drought are applicable in a changing environment. Finally, two improved drought assessment methods, the variable TLM and the SRI based on parameter transplantation are employed to quantify the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought based on the reconstructed natural runoff series obtained using the variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model. The results of a case study on the typical semiarid Laohahe basin in North China show that the stationarity of the hydrological processes in the basin is destroyed by human activities (an obvious change‐point for runoff series is identified in 1979). The traditional hydrological drought assessment methods can no longer be applied to the period of 1980–2015. In contrast, the proposed separation framework is able to quantify the contributions of climate change and human activities to hydrological drought during the above period. Their ranges of contributions to hydrological drought calculated by the variable TLM method are 20.6–41.2% and 58.8–79.4%, and the results determined by the SRI based on parameter transplantation method are 15.3–45.3% and 54.7–84.7%, respectively. It is concluded that human activities have a dominant effect on hydrological drought in the study region. The novelty of the study is twofold. First, the proposed method is demonstrated to be efficient in quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on hydrological drought. Second, the findings of this study can be used for hydrological drought assessment and water resource management in water‐stressed regions under nonstationary conditions.     

Hydrological responses to rainfall events including the extratropical cyclone Gloria in two contrasting Mediterranean headwaters in Spain; the perennial font del Regàs and the intermittent Fuirosos

Catchment hydrological responses to precipitation inputs, particularly during exceptionally large storms, are complex and variable, and our understanding of the associated runoff generation processes during those events is limited. Hydrological monitoring of climatically and hydrologically distinct catchments can help to improve this understanding by shedding light on the interplay between antecedent soil moisture conditions, hydrological connectivity, and rainfall event characteristics. This knowledge is urgently needed considering that both the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events are increasing worldwide as a consequence of climate change. In autumn 2018, we installed water level sensors to monitor stream water and near-stream groundwater levels at two Mediterranean forest headwater catchments with contrasting hydrological regimes: Font del Regàs (sub-humid climate, perennial flow regime) and Fuirosos (semi-arid climate, intermittent flow regime). Both catchments are located in northeastern Spain, where the extratropical cyclone Gloria hit in January 2020 and left in ca. 65 h outstanding accumulated rainfalls of 424 mm in Font del Regàs and 230 mm in Fuirosos. During rainfall events of low mean intensity, hydrological responses to precipitation inputs at the semi-arid Fuirosos were more delayed and more variable than at the sub-humid Font del Regàs. We explain these divergences by differences in antecedent soil moisture conditions and associated differences in catchment hydrological connectivity between the two catchments, which in this case are likely driven by differences in local climate rather than by differences in local topography. In contrast, during events of moderate and high mean rainfall intensities, including the storm Gloria, precipitation inputs and hydrological responses correlated similarly in the two catchments. We explain this convergence by rapid development of hydrological connectivity independently of antecedent soil moisture conditions. The data set presented here is unique and contributes to our mechanistic understanding on how streams respond to rainfall events and exceptionally large storms in catchments with contrasting flow regimes.     

Modelling hydrological response to different land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Zamu River basin of northwest China

Changes in climate and land use can significantly influence the hydrological cycle and hence affect water resources. Understanding the impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow can facilitate development of sustainable water resources strategies. This study investigates the flow variation of the Zamu River, an inland river in the arid area of northwest China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool distributed hydrological model. Three different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios were considered on the basis of measured climate data and land‐use cover, and then these data were input into the hydrological model. Based on the sensitivity analysis, model calibration and verification, the hydrological response to different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios was simulated. The results indicate that the runoff varied with different land‐use type, and the runoff of the mountain reaches of the catchment increased when grassland area increased and forestland decreased. The simulated runoff increased with increased precipitation, but the mean temperature increase decreased the runoff under the same precipitation condition. Application of grey correlation analysis showed that precipitation and temperature play a critical role in the runoff of the Zamu River basin. Sensitivity analysis of runoff to precipitation and temperature by considering the 1990s land use and climate conditions was also undertaken. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine

Abstract

The runoff regime of glacierized headwater catchments in the Alps is essentially characterized by snow and ice melt. High Alpine drainage basins influence distant downstream catchments of the Rhine River basin. In particular, during the summer months, low-flow conditions are probable with strongly reduced snow and ice melt under climate change conditions. This study attempts to quantify present and future contributions from snow and ice melt to summer runoff at different spatial scales. For the small Silvretta catchment (103 km²) in the Swiss Alps, with a glacierization of 7%, the HBV model and the glacio-hydrological model GERM are applied for calculating future runoff based on different regional climate scenarios. We evaluate the importance of snow and ice melt in the runoff regime. Comparison of the models indicates that the HBV model strongly overestimates the future contribution of glacier melt to runoff, as glaciers are considered as static components. Furthermore, we provide estimates of the current meltwater contribution of glaciers for several catchments downstream on the River Rhine during the month of August. Snow and ice melt processes have a significant direct impact on summer runoff, not only for high mountain catchments, but also for large transboundary basins. A future shift in the hydrological regime and the disappearance of glaciers might favour low-flow conditions during summer along the Rhine.

Citation Junghans, N., Cullmann, J. & Huss, M. (2011) Evaluating the effect of snow and ice melt in an Alpine headwater catchment and further downstream in the River Rhine. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 981–993.     

Quantifying the impact of no-till on runoff in southern Brazil at hillslope and catchment scales

No-till (NT) is a conservation system that improves the hydrological regime of agricultural slopes by providing greater surface protection and benefits to the physical and hydrological properties of soils. However, the isolated use of NT is not enough to control runoff and its associated degradation processes. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the runoff of agricultural slopes under NT under different runoff control conditions by monitoring 63 rainfall events in two 2.4-ha zero-order catchments and 27 rainfall events in four 0.6-ha macroplots. The catchments are paired and similar in terms of the type of soil and relief, but different regarding the presence of terraces. The macroplots have different soil and crop management systems. By using monitoring techniques, the hyetographs and hydrographs revealed the influence of the different types of management on the catchments and macroplots and allowed rainfall characteristics, runoff volume, runoff coefficients, water infiltration, peak runoff, response times, and curve number to be analysed. The terraces positively affected the NT and controlled runoff and related variables, in addition to infiltration significantly increasing and runoff reducing in the terraced catchment. All the hydrological information assessed pointed to the positive effects provided by the presence of the terraces. The results in the macroplots showed that high amounts of phytomass and/or chiselling do not control runoff and its correlated variables in medium and high magnitude events. The study concludes by underlining the need for additional measures to control runoff (terraces), even in areas under NT and with high phytomass production. Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of monitoring at the catchment scale to better understand the hydrological behaviour of agricultural areas and provide the necessary parameters to effectively control runoff.     

Assessing Amur Water Regime Variations in the XXI Century with Two Methods Used to Specify Climate Projections in River Runoff Formation Model

A regional numerical physico-mathematical model of river runoff formation is used to study the possibility to assess long-term variations of water regime characteristics in the Amur R. in the XXI century. Two methods were used to specify climate projections as boundary conditions in the hydrological model: (1) based on the results of calculations with an ensemble of global climate models of CMI5 project, (2) based on data obtained by linear transformation of series of actual meteorological observations with the use of normal annual climate parameters calculated by climate models. The results of numerical experiments were used to analyze the sensitivity of the anomaly of Amur normal annual runoff to changes in the climate normals of air temperature and precipitation. The anomalies of normal annual runoff were shown to respond similarly (within the accuracy of sensitivity coefficient estimates) to changes in the appropriate climate normals, whatever the way of specifying climate projections.     

The role of climate change and human interventions in affecting watershed runoff responses

Identifying the role of the two main driving factors—climate change and human interventions—in influencing runoff processes is essential for sustainable water resources management. For this purpose, runoff regime change detection methods were used to divide the available hydroclimatic variables into a baseline and a disturbed period. We applied hydrological modelling and the climate elasticity of runoff method to determine the contribution of climate change and human interventions to changes in runoff. The hydrological model, SWAT, was calibrated during the baseline period and used to simulate the naturalized runoff pattern for the disturbed period. Significant changes in runoff in the study watershed were detected from 1982, suggesting that human interventions play a dominant role in influencing runoff. The combined effects of climate change and human interventions resulted in a 41.3 mm (23.9%) decrease in runoff during the disturbed period, contributing about 40% and 60% to the total runoff change, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of changes in land cover dynamics in the watershed over the past four decades supported these changes in runoff. Contrary to other decades, the discrepancy between naturalized and observed runoff was small in the 2010s, likely due to increased baseflow as a result of storage and/or release of excess water during the dry season. This study contributes to our understanding of how climate change and human interventions affect hydrological responses of watersheds, which is important for future sustainable water management and drought adaptation.     

Model estimates of runoff in the closed,semiarid Estancia basin,central New Mexico,USA

Abstract

The 5000 km² topographically closed Estancia basin in central New Mexico has been the focus of several palaeoclimatic studies based on changes in the level of late Pleistocene Lake Estancia. A large, unknown volume of surface runoff and groundwater from adjacent mountains contributed to the hydrological balance during highstands and lowstands. The US Department of Agriculture hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and the US Geological Survey groundwater flow model MODFLOW, with the LAK2 package, were used in this study to estimate runoff and water balance under present climate. A Geographic Information Systems (GIS) interface was used for SWAT, digitized data were applied for soils and vegetation, and limited streamflow data were used to obtain an approximate calibration for the model. Simulated streamflow is generally within 30% of observed values, and simulated runoff for the entire basin is about 8% of the annual inflow volume needed to support lowstands of the former Lake Estancia. Results from the combined models suggest application to other palaeoclimate investigations in semiarid lake basins.     

Changes in the long-term hydrological regimes and the impacts of human activities in the main Wei River,China

ABSTRACT

Under the combined influence of climate changes and human activities, the hydrological regime of the Wei River shows remarkable variations which have caused many issues in the Wei River in recent decades, such as a lack of freshwater, water pollution, disastrous flooding and channel sedimentation. Hence, hydrological regime changes and potential human-induced impacts have been drawing increasing attention from local government and hydrologists. This study investigates hydrological regime changes in the natural and measured runoff series at four hydrological stations on the main Wei River and quantifies features of their long-term change by analysing their historical annual and seasonal runoff data using several approaches, i.e., continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet, wavelet coherence, trend-free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall test and detrended fluctuation analysis. By contrasting two different analysis results between natural and measured river runoff series, the impacts of human activities on the long-term hydrological regime were investigated via the changes of spatio-temporal distribution in dominant periods, the trends and long-range memory of river runoff. The results show : (a) that periodic properties of the streamflow changes are the result of climate, referring to precipitation changes in particular, while human activities play a minor role; (b) a significant decreasing trend can be observed in the natural streamflow series along the entire main stream of the Wei River and the more serious decrease emerging in measured flow should result from human-induced influences in recent decades; and (c) continuous decreasing streamflow in the Wei River will trigger serious shortages of freshwater in the future, which may challenge the sustainability and safety of water resources development in the river basin, and should be paid great attention before 2020.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor K. Hamed     

GCM-related uncertainty in river flow projections at the threshold for “dangerous” climate change: the Kalu Ganga river,Sri Lanka

The Kalu Ganga catchment is one of the largest in Sri Lanka, and is home to 5% of the national population. A first assessment is provided here of the sensitivity of Kalu Ganga runoff to a 2°C increase in global mean temperature – the supposed threshold for “dangerous” climate change. Runoff is simulated using the HBV-Light hydrological model and scenario data from seven general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation is the strongest cause of change in runoff. Substantial inter-GCM differences in scenario precipitation lead to uncertainty in the direction of change in mean annual runoff from the baseline (range ?25% to +19%). Scenario monthly runoff ranges from ?41% to +124% of the baseline values at its most extreme (March); June is the only month with a consistent direction of change (range ?17% to ?65%) – thus indicating that climate change may lead to a substantially different hydrological regime in the Kalu Ganga catchment.     

Regime of water balance components of the Caspian Sea

The results of studying the hydrological regime of the Caspian Sea and its basin climate in observation period 1945–2010 are generalized. The results of analysis of the regime of precipitation, air temperature in the Caspian Sea basin and its level, as well as Volga runoff in periods of Caspian Sea level rise and drop are given. The conformity in variations of the trends in Caspian Sea level its basin climate is demonstrated, and the direction of further studies is substantiated.     

Regularities in the Formation of Groundwater Level Regime in Moscow Region

The need to study and take into account regularities in the formation of groundwater regime and runoff, especially in the context of current climate changes, is demonstrated. Typical plots of groundwater level regime, the dependence of the amplitudes of their variations and the major statistical parameters on the depth to groundwater, and histograms of the occurrence time of extreme positions of its level are shown. Long-term trends in precipitation and groundwater levels are established and their statistical significance is estimated. The presence of cyclicity in groundwater level regime is analyzed.__________Translated from Vodnye Resursy, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2005, pp. 399–405.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Yakimova.     

Hydrological response of a medium-sized mountainous catchment to climate changes

Abstract

The long term hydrological response of a medium-sized mountainous catchment to climate changes has been examined, The climate changes were represented by a set of hypothetical scenarios of temperature increases coupled with precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes. Snow accumulation and ablation, plus runoff from the study catchment (the Mesochora catchment in central Greece) were simulated under present (historical) and altered climate conditions using the US National Weather Service snowmelt and soil moisture accounting models. The results of this research obtained through alternative scenarios suggest strongly that all the hypothetical climate change scenarios would cause major decreases in winter snow accumulation and hence increases in winter runoff, as well as decreases in spring and summer runoff. The simulated changes in annual runoff were minor compared with the changes in the monthly distribution of runoff. Attendant changes in the monthly distribution of soil moisture and actual evapotranspiration would also occur. Such hydrological results would have significant implications on future water resources design and management.     

Assessment of the impact of climate change on the flow regime of the Han River basin using indicators of hydrologic alteration

Most natural disasters are caused by water‐/climate‐related hazards, such as floods, droughts, typhoons, and landslides. In the last few years, great attention has been paid to climate change, and especially the impact of climate change on water resources and the natural disasters that have been an important issue in many countries. As climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, the number of water‐related disasters is expected to rise. In this regard, this study intends to analyse the changes in extreme weather events and the associated flow regime in both the past and the future. Given trend analysis, spatially coherent and statistically significant changes in the extreme events of temperature and rainfall were identified. A weather generator based on the non‐stationary Markov chain model was applied to produce a daily climate change scenario for the Han River basin for a period of 2001–2090. The weather generator mainly utilizes the climate change SRES A2 scenario driven by input from the regional climate model. Following this, the SLURP model, which is a semi‐distributed hydrological model, was applied to produce a long‐term daily runoff ensemble series. Finally, the indicator of hydrologic alteration was applied to carry out a quantitative analysis and assessment of the impact of climate change on runoff, the river flow regime, and the aquatic ecosystem. It was found that the runoff is expected to decrease in May and July, while no significant changes occur in June. In comparison with historical evidence, the runoff is expected to increase from August to April. A remarkable increase, which is about 40%, in runoff was identified in September. The amount of the minimum discharge over various durations tended to increase when compared to the present hydrological condition. A detailed comparison for discharge and its associated characteristics was discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing possible changes in Selenga R. water regime in the XXI century based on a runoff formation model

The runoff of the Selenga R., the largest tributary of Lake Baikal, in recent two decades corresponds to a low-water period. Such decrease can be due to the global climate processes, which have an effect on the amounts of precipitation onto and evaporation from Selenga drainage basin, which is located in arid climate zone. The adaptation of Ecomag software complex to simulating river runoff in the Selenga Basin based on global databases (relief, soils, vegetation, and weather information) is described. The model was calibrated and verified, and the statistical estimates of calculation efficiency were constructed. The obtained model of runoff formation in the Selenga Basin was used to assess the possible changes in the climate and water regime in the XXI century with the use of data of global climate models under different scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Throughout the XXI century, the Selenga R. runoff may decrease by 10–40%, depending on the forecasted climate conditions.     

Variations in submarine groundwater runoff as a possible cause of decomposition of marine methane-hydrates in the Artcic

The formation conditions and the dynamics of groundwater in the upper hydrodynamic zone of the northern coast of European Russia, which discharge directly into the Barents and White seas, are analyzed. The normal annual water, ionic, and thermal runoff and the anticipated submarine groundwater runoff into the Arctic Ocean are evaluated. The stability of marine arctic methane-hydrates under the observed and anticipated climate changes is analyzed. A physical substantiation is given to the concept of climate-determined increase in submarine groundwater discharge as a possible cause of the intensification of arctic methane hydrate decomposition, which does not contradict empirical data.