龙陵-澜沧新生断裂带地震破裂分段与地震预测研究

龙陵 -澜沧新生断裂带的地震活动具频度高、强度大、周期短等特征 ,并以双震或震群型为主。断裂带由多条次级新生断层组成 ,呈斜列或共轭式展布 ,根据结构、规模、地震活动差异等因素把断裂带划分为 4个一级段、13个二级段 ,其中有 4个二级段又可划分出 8个三级段。历史上发生过大震、强震并有地震断层伴生的断层段为地震破裂单元 ;断裂带上晚第四纪有活动并有古地震事件 ,但无历史地震记载的地段为断层闭锁单元 ;次级断层之间的阶区或连接点为障碍体单元。从地震破裂特征分析 ,断裂带由破裂、闭锁、障碍体单元组成 ,根据地震、古地震、活断层、断层阶区的活动规律 ,断裂带可划分出 9个破裂单元、8个闭锁单元、10个障碍体单元。三者之间呈迁移、触发和转换能量的关系。根据这些关系和地震构造标志 ,对断裂带上未来可能发生大震、强震、中强震的地区分别作了预测。预测的危险区有 9个 ,其中大震区 1个 (永康 -永德地区 ) ,强震区 3个 (马站、石灰窑、酒房-勐混 ) ,中强震区 5个 (下顺江、里仁、大岗山、南明 -澜沧、勐遮     

东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁段大震危险性分析和探讨

在巴彦喀拉块体边界地震活动和构造分析的基础上,从地震活动空间图像、时间序列演化两方面对巴彦喀拉块体北边界东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁空区的大震危险性进行探讨。与以前震例进行对比发现当前甘青川交界区域已形成与共和大震前相似的平静区,活动性参数计算表明东昆仑断裂带玛曲—玛沁段有逼近的大震危险性。     

澜沧—耿马地震前的地震活动条带与空区

1988年11月6日滇西南发生了澜沧7.6级、耿马7.2级强烈地震,两震相距70公里。本文分析了大震活动的条带与空区特征。这两次地震之前既有M≥4.5地震活动条带,又有M≥3.5地震空区,条带与空区相连接。空区是震前三年多开始出现,震前半年消失的;条带是前一年多时间内形成的,条带的迅速形成深入到空区之内,促使了空区的消失。澜沧7.6级地震发生在两个条带的交汇部位,也是条带的端部、空区的边缘;耿马7.2级地震则发生在空区之内。     

祁连—海原断裂带库仑应力演化及地震危险性

祁连—海原断裂带是青藏高原东北缘重要的活动断裂带,调节着青藏高原北东向推挤作用和阿拉善地块的东西向运动.已有地震地质和数值模型结果显示,祁连—海原断裂带目前存在几个强震破裂空段且其上应力积累显著、断层闭锁程度高,2022年1月8日门源MS6.9地震即发生在祁连—海原断裂带西段的断层高闭锁、应力积累显著的破裂空段.为进一...     

华南滨海断裂带地震危险性的数学模拟

华南滨海断裂带是南海北部规模巨大的活动断裂，其地震危险性的确定将为地震几地震工程提供地质背景依据，应用二维有限元分析和正交设计法反演南海北部及其今近地区的构造应力场，探讨可能发震的危险地段。研究结果表明，滨海断裂带的某些地段，尤其是滨海断裂带被ＮＷ向断裂切割的部位有一定的地震危险性。南海北部地区最主要的地震威胁来自巴士系断裂带和珠江口盆地南缘的ＮＷＷ向断裂带，对华南滨海断理解带潜在的地震危险性不宜     

临潼-长安断裂带古地震及地震危险性评价

长安二中探槽是在地面地质调查、浅层地震和钻探的基础上开挖的,探槽中有丰富的砂土液化现象,根据液化砂脉的切割关系,判断有4次古地震事件的发生。根据探槽中地层没有明显错动和临潼-长安断裂带在晚更新世晚期和全新世早期活动较弱,以及历史上无6级以上地震活动记录的特点,本文认为4次古地震事件与临潼-长安断裂带无关,该断裂未来发生强震的危险性不大。     

郯庐断裂带江苏新沂——安徽宿松段地震危险性分析

通过对郯庐断裂带江苏新沂—安徽宿松段历史及现代地震活动性分析、地震地质调查结果及沿线跨断层水准测量结果的综合分析,认为郯庐断裂带新沂—宿松段近期地震危险性主要位于新沂—泗县一带和明光一带,其中新沂—泗县一带近期有发生MS5.0～6.0级地震的活动背景;明光一带近期有发生MS5.0级地震的活动背景。     

基于多参数组合分析海原—六盘山—宝鸡断裂带地震危险性

1 研究背景 近年来,易桂喜等(2006,2007)、武敏捷等(2013)利用以b值为主的地震活动性参数空间分布,结合历史及现今地震活动背景,分析活动断裂带现今活动习性,综合判断处于相对高应力和闭锁状态下活动断裂带的强震危险性.这种组合分析方法比单个活动性参数值能更好地反映断裂现今活动习性,且对地震样本需求不高,适用于...     

1988年澜沧—耿马地震前震源区应力状态分析

利用1973年1月1日至1988年11月5日云南区域地震台网记录的地震资料,获得了1988年澜沧—耿马地震前震源及附近区域多个地震活动性参数的空间分布图像,初步揭示了震前震源区应力状态.结果表明:澜沧—耿马地震之前,研究区地震活动性参数分布具有显著的空间不均匀性特征.澜沧7.6级地震震源区以低于0.7的异常低b值、低a值以及整个研究区最短的局部复发间隔Tl值为特征,表明震源所在断裂段在震前已处于高应力闭锁状态,具有发生大震的应力条件.     

大凉山断裂带与安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震活动性分析

通过对比分析,研究了大凉山断裂带和安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震活动性。认为在历史上安宁河-则木河断裂带的地震活动无论是频次还是强度都高于大凉山断裂带,这与活断层及古地震研究的结论是一致的。而且,地震活动性分段比较的结果显示,普格附近的空段2和冕宁附近的空段1发生强震的可能性最大,其次为西昌钝角交汇区．另外,需要注意强震前先发生中强震的可能性。     

滇西南地区南汀河断裂带三维深部电性结构及其孕震环境

南汀河断裂带为滇西南地区活动断裂体系中规模最大的一条北东向断裂,其构造活动及地震危险性一直备受关注.本文基于覆盖云南境内南汀河断裂带的大地电磁测深宽频带阵列数据,利用大地电磁三维反演解释技术,首次获得了南汀河断裂带的精细三维深部电性结构.在上地壳深度,南汀河断裂带西南段与中段的电性结构表现出沿构造走向的高导条带特征,北东段表现为高阻结构.该高阻结构可能为临沧—勐海花岗岩体的电性反映,指示南汀河断裂可能未切穿该花岗岩带.在中下地壳深度,南汀河断裂带西南段存在大范围高导层,北东段则表现为整体性的高阻地壳,因此南汀河断裂北东段可能具有发生强震的介质结构背景.南汀河断裂带西南段的耿马地震区深部呈现北东向与北北西向的"X"型高导构造样式,该高导结构以南存在一个显著高阻异常体,1988年耿马MS7.2地震以及2015年沧源MS5.5级地震均发生于该高阻体与"X"型高导条带的电性边界.青藏高原东南缘绕东构造结流入滇西地区的中下地壳流可能受到南汀河断裂北东段中下地壳高阻体的阻挡而呈分流式分布于保山地块以及澜沧江断裂以东.     

云南小江断裂带北段动态触发现象研究

论文通过分析云南小江断裂北段(26°N—27.5°N,102.3°E—103.7°E)密集地震台阵(38个地震台组成)2012-2015年的地震记录,分别用基于频谱图的人工识别及小震目录的β统计两种触发判定标准研究远震是否对研究区域内小震活动存在动态触发.发现在研究时段内发生的36个7级以上远震中,7个存在着明显的触发...     

Grain-size reduction of feldspar and flow of deformed granites within the Gaoligong shear zone,southwestern Yunnan,China

Mineral deformation and rock flow mechanism in the lithosphere are related to the rheological behavior and weakening mechanism of the continent. Natural deformation behaviors of feldspars are not well understood due to the complexity of their mineral compositions, crystal structures, as well as changing deformation conditions. The refined microstructure,fabric and composition of major minerals in the deformed granitic rocks within the Gaoligong shear zone(GLGSZ), southwestern Yunnan, China, were studied. With increasing mylonitization, two fabric types of end-members have been distinguished(type-I banded granitic mylonite and type-II banded ultramylonite). The two types of deformed granitic rocks have the same mineral assemblage, but different mineral modes. The type-I banded granitic mylonite has a greater proportion of K-feldspar(mostly present as porphyroclasts)plagioclasequartz±biotite, however, the type-II banded ultramylonite has a greater proportion of fine-grained plagioclaseK-feldsparquartz±biotite. The crystallographic preferred orientation(CPO) patterns of quartz combined with two-feldspar geothermometer, confirm that the quartz grains in the type-I and type-II granitic rock have undergone high-temperature dislocation creep deformation. The K-feldspar grains in the matrix of type-II banded ultramylonite show a dominant(100) [010] slip system with dislocation creep recrystallization, while the fine-grained plagioclase grains present a weak CPO pattern with superplastic flow. The K-feldspar porphyroclasts show grain-size reduction associated with mineral composition and fabric transformation. The myrmekite formation with the fine-grained neocrystallization of plagioclase and quartz significally replaced the K-feldspar porphyroclasts. Finally, the fine-grained neocrystallization plagioclases were formed further into the high strain localized ultramylonites with superplastic flow.     

沂沭断裂带构造区光弹实验与地震危险区判定研究

在对沂沭断裂带的地质构造环境、断裂带分布特征进行详细分析的基础上,采用聚碳酸酯材料制成沂沭断裂带构造区域的地质模型,分别运用集中、2点和均布等加载方式,使用光弹实验方法模拟特定构造框架下应力、应变场的变化特征。通过对光弹实验数据的分析,在对比不同加载方式下应力积累区域和地震危险区的基础上判定沂沭断裂带构造区中的地震危险区域。     

基于波场梯度法研究安宁河—则木河断裂带速度结构

不同尺度的密集台阵为波场梯度法的发展提供了条件,与其他成像方法相比,波场梯度法在拓展应用上还相对较少.本文将波场梯度法应用于小区域的相对高频的地震波形获得高分辨率的速度结构.首先将台站数据网格化,利用网格点上波形数据得到相速度、方位角变化、几何扩散和辐射花样.研究区域为安宁河—则木河断裂带上的冕宁—西昌—越西区域,采用波场梯度法获得了该区域5~15 s Rayleigh面波的相速度,并反演出上地壳S波速度结构.结果显示沿断裂带浅层地壳的低速异常与张裂断陷沉积形成的昔格达地层特征相一致.安宁河断裂带附近有明显的高速异常,在不同深度高速异常都有着明显的变化,与研究区域花岗岩的分布相对应.不同深度高速体的分布可能与花岗岩体在上地壳的侵入有关.西昌地区上地壳的低速异常反映了较厚的沉积层.速度结构与实际地质构造基本吻合,表明利用波场梯度法可以有效地计算小区域高分辨率三维速度结构.本文将速度结构与不同深度的地质构造资料和震源分布相结合,为该研究区域上地壳的构造研究提供了可靠参考.

     

Seismic risk assessment for the Greater Sochi area

Earthquakes, among other natural phenomena, often cause loss of life and significant economic damage. According to the statistical data of the International Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (www.cred.be), earthquakes are among the leaders in all aspects: the number of fatalities, the number of injured, and the caused economic loss. The widely accepted strategy for reducing the damage and social losses implies preventive measures in high-risk zones identified by mapping with different details. About 5% of RF territory is referred to the areas characterized by a high level of seismic hazard, where earthquakes with intensities I = 8–9 and 9–10 by the MMSK-86 scale may occur. The Caucasus is among the most hazardous and densely populated regions in the country. During the preparation to the 2014 Olympic Games, the individual seismic risk was assessed for the Greater Sochi territory including the Olympic sites. The paper analyzes the results of seismic risk monitoring, obtained in 2007 and 2013.     

Application of the stress evolutionary model along the Xiaojiang fault zone in Yunnan Province,Southeast China

The Xiaojiang fault zone constitutes part of the major Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang left lateral structure that bounds the rhombic-shaped block of Yunnan-Sichuan to the east. Long strike slip fault zones that have repeatedly accommodated intense seismic activity, constitute a basic feature of southeast China. Known historical earthquakes to have struck the study area are the 1713 Xundian of M6.8, 1725 Wanshou mountain of M6.8, the 1733 Dongchuan of M7.8, and the strongest one, the 1833 Songming of M8.0. Although instrumental record did not report events of this magnitude class, the 18th century clustering as well as the 19th century large event prompted the investigation of stress transfer along this fault zone. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic half-space, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M ≥ 6.8) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup along the major fault segments. Geological and geodetic data are used to infer the geometry of these faults and long term slip rates on them, as well as for the fault segments that slipped. Evidence is presented that the strong historical events as well as the ones of smaller magnitude that occurred during the instrumental era, are located in areas where the static stress was enhanced. By extending the calculations up to present, possible sites for future strong events are identified.     

滇西北龙蟠—乔后断裂带桃源段晚第四纪活动特征研究

根据详细的野外调查和剖面测绘成果,结合区域第四系测年结果等资料,对龙蟠—乔后断裂带桃源段新发现的桃源断裂、刀郭断裂、合江村断裂及已知的龙蟠—乔后断裂等4条主要断裂的晚第四纪活动特征进行研究。成果表明,龙蟠—乔后断裂带桃源段在晚第四纪的活动特征明显,活动强度中等,龙蟠—乔后断裂和合江村断裂属全新世活动断裂,桃源断裂和刀郭断裂属晚更新世断裂;晚更新世以来,龙蟠—乔后断裂和刀郭断裂以左旋走滑运动为主,而桃源断裂和合江村断裂则表现为正断走滑为主。这些断裂的活动性都不同程度地影响着研究区及附近区域的地震风险和构造稳定性。新的调查研究成果为深入认识龙蟠—乔后断裂带桃源段的晚第四纪活动性提供了新的资料,并可为深入理解该区的地震地质特征以及工程建设地震安全性评价等提供基础地质资料。     

Seismic risk assessment considering cumulative damage due to aftershocks

Calculating the limit state (LS) exceedance probability for a structure considering the main seismic event and the triggered aftershocks (AS) is complicated both by the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also by the cumulative damage caused by the sequence of events. Taking advantage of a methodology developed previously by the authors for post‐mainshock (MS) risk assessment, the LS probability due to a sequence of mainshock and the triggered aftershocks is calculated for a given aftershock forecasting time window. The proposed formulation takes into account both the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also the damage accumulation due to the triggered aftershocks. It is demonstrated that an existing reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame with infills subjected to the main event and the triggered sequence exceeds the near‐collapse LS. On the other hand, the structure does not reach the onset of near‐collapse LS when the effect of triggered aftershocks is not considered. It is shown, based on simplifying assumptions, that the derived formulation yields asymptotically to the same Poisson‐type functional form used when the cumulative damage is not being considered. This leads to a range of approximate solutions by substituting the fragilities calculated for intact, MS‐damaged, and MS‐plus‐one‐AS‐damaged structures in the asymptotic simplified formulation. The latter two approximate solutions provide good agreement with the derived formulation. Even when the fragility of intact structure is employed, the approximate solution (considering only the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence) leads to higher risk estimates compared with those obtained based on only the mainshock. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.