Reconstruction of the seasonal climate of the Black Sea on the basis of available hydrological data

We analyze the seasonal variability of the climatic hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea reporduced in three numerical experiments carried out according to the model of circulation. The numerical predictions are performed for a period of 12.5 yr on the basis of the hydrological data accumulated in 1983–1995. The monthly average climatic fields of the current speed are reconstructed according to the data on the climatic fields of temperature and salinity by the method of hydrodynamic adaptation (standard). It is shown that, in prognostic calculations, the seasonal variability of temperature and salinity is qualitatively close to the “standard” dependence. At the same time, the quantitative difference between the climatic behavior of the model and the standard dependence may be significant. The annual cycle of the currents is characterized by the intensification of the Main Black-Sea Current in winter. The structure of the hydrophysical fields of the sea in the model becomes much more realistic if it is based on the actual hydrological data. Translated by Peter V. Malyshev and Dmitry V. Malyshev     

简便的水文频率计算方法

在概率分布线型确定下,水文频率计算就是根据样本资料估算其中包含的参数。计算P-Ⅲ型分布参数的方法很多,目前常采用的最简单的方法是三点法,用图解适线求参数。本文中笔者建议用二点法直接利用K值表求参数。该方法简便,且不易出错。同时又能保证适线法的精度要求。     

Inter-annual and seasonal variations in hydrological parameters and its implications on chlorophyll a distribution along the southwest coast of Bay of Bengal

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of hydrological parameters and its impact on chlorophyll distribution was studied from January 2009 to December 2011 at four coastal stations along the southwest Bay of Bengal. Statistical analysis(principal component analysis(PCA), two-way analysis of variance(ANOVA) and correlation analysis)showed the significant impact of hydrological parameters on chlorophyll distribution in the study area. The ranges of different parameters recorded were 23.8–33.8°C(SST), 4.00–36.00(salinity), 7.0–9.2(p H), 4.41–8.32 mg/L(dissolved oxygen), 0.04–2.45 μmol/L(nitrite), 0.33–16.10 μmol/L(nitrate), 0.02–2.51 μmol/L(ammonia),0.04–3.32 μmol/L(inorganic phosphate), 10.09–85.28 μmol/L(reactive silicate) and 0.04–13.8 μg/L(chlorophyll).PCA analysis carried out for different seasons found variations in the relationship between physico-chemical parameters and chlorophyll in which nitrate and chlorophyll were positively loaded at PC1(principal component1) during spring inter-monsoon and at PC2(principal component 2) during other seasons. Likewise correlation analysis also showed significant positive relationship between chlorophyll and nutrients especially with nitrate(r=0.734). Distribution of hydrobiological parameters between stations and distances was significantly varying as evidenced from the ANOVA results. The study found that the spatial and temporal distribution of chlorophyll was highly dependent on the availability of nutrients especially, nitrate in the southwest Bay of Bengal coastal waters.     

基于Linux的气象水文浮标采集系统设计及实现

为了获取海洋连续稳定的气象和水文数据,作者设计了基于Linux的气象水文浮标采集系统,多线程同时测量海面的气象参数(温度、湿度、气压和风速、风向)和海下的水文参数(不同深度的水温和盐度),监控浮标的电压、漏水和开舱状态,测量和监控原始数据自动备份到系统的数据库,通过CDMA/GPRS或卫星与岸站接收系统通信,实现采集数...     

2012年福建沿海大规模米氏凯伦藻赤潮暴发的水文气象原因探讨

本文利用ERA-Interim资料集、HYCOM全球再分析资料以及沿海各站点数据,通过分析比较2005、2011和2012年福建沿海春季(3—5月)气温、水温、风场、流场和降雨数据,探讨了2012年春季水文、气象要素的年际变化特征及其与米氏凯伦藻暴发的关系。结果表明:2012年春季暴发的大规模米氏凯伦藻赤潮极可能与初春水温偏低,晚春水温偏高,后期海水迅速升温有关:初春(3月)沿海水温偏低,抑制了东海原甲藻的前期孕育;晚春(5月)水温偏高,有利于各种藻类,特别是偏暖暴发的米氏凯伦藻的生长;3—5月海水过快的升温过程,使得米氏凯伦藻成为优势藻种。相对于气候态平均而言,2012年5月呈强北风特性,水体向岸堆积作用明显,有利于藻类在近岸的堆积聚集和种群密度的提高,为藻类的生长提供了稳定的动力环境,促进了赤潮的暴发。此外,2012年1—4月的大降雨量可能为米氏凯伦藻的生长提供了良好的生物化学环境。     

Synchronous seasonal changes in the hydrological regime and weak earthquake activity in the Garm region

The distinctive annual periodicity in the week earthquake activity in the Garm region and its possible origin were described in the author’s previous papers. In this paper, an attempt is made to relate the annual earthquake periodicity to such a phenomenon as hydroseismicity. Within the framework of the study, seasonal variations in seismicity, snow height, and the water level of the Surkhob River are compared. As a result, good coincidence of the form of spring changes in snow height and seismicity has been revealed. It is important that according to averaged data, seismicity follows changes in snow height with some lag. However, a few cases in certain years have been found when the number of earthquakes began decreasing simultaneously or even a little before snow melt. It was also discovered that annual changes in the river water level and seismicity occur in opposite phase. Possible approaches to interpreting the results are discussed.     

台风影响下广州近岸及珠江口水文气象特征响应

基于海洋自动观测站实测连续的水文气象数据,对1713号台风“天鸽”和1822号台风“山竹”影响期间广州近岸及珠江口水文气象特征进行了分析,并对海洋灾害影响动力因素进行了探讨。研究结果表明：(1)在台风影响期间,各观测站风速由平时的1～4级增至7～8级,风速均在受台风七级风圈影响6～7 h左右达到最大;潮位均超红色警戒潮位,最大增水2～3 m;波高由平时的1～2级增至3～4级;余流受风速影响先降后增,台风登陆当日余流值最低,台风使余流发生转向;海表温度下降1～2℃,海表盐度增大4～12。(2)对台风的响应由快至慢为：风速、余流、波浪、潮位、水温和盐度,波浪比风速晚1 h达到峰值,最高潮位出现在台风登陆1～2 h后,水温和盐度比风速对台风的响应晚5～6 h。(3)对波浪影响较大的因素主要为台风风圈半径、强台风持续时间、台风级别、移动速度等;对风暴增水影响较大的因素为台风强度和风圈半径,天文大潮、上游流量、地形等对潮位抬升也有一定影响,此外,波浪陡增对风暴增水具有较大影响,相关系数达0.7。(4)“山竹”登陆地点较“天鸽”远74 km且非天文大潮期,但引起的灾害较“天鸽”更严重,引起的最大增...     

东亚夏季气候主要模态的年际变化及其机理

主要研究了东亚(中国和日本)夏季气候(降水和气温)主要模态的年际变化及其机理。研究发现,中国区域夏季降水和气温的大尺度年际变化间有很强的耦合:大范围多(少)雨对应大范围低(高)温。奇异值分解的第一个模态的长期变化主要反映了长江中下游地区降水逐年增加(变湿)的趋势而气温逐年降低(变冷)的趋势。在70年代中期以后,长江中下游地区降水和气温耦合变化的准两年分量明显增强。研究表明,影响长江中下游地区夏季降水和气温年际变化的大尺度环流背景异常十分相似,即主要是两个遥相关型:太平洋-日本(PJ)型和欧亚型遥相关型。与夏季东亚梅雨异常相联系的长江中下游地区降水和气温异常是中高纬度干冷空气和低纬度暖湿空气相互作用的结果。热带西太平洋海表温度异常和相关的对流活动的年际变化通过PJ型对东亚地区夏季降水和气温的年际变化产生十分显着的影响。西太平洋对流活动与北半球大气环流遥相关的相互作用有明显的季节性。PJ型不仅是夏季西太平洋对流活动与北半球夏季热带外地区500hPa高度场年际变化耦合相互作用的最重要模态,而且也是两者各自变化的一个十分重要的模态。1984年夏季北半球500hPa位势高度主振荡型分析表明存在着能量从热带西太平洋向东亚北部的PJ型的振荡传播。低纬度的影响可传播到70°N,同时也存在能量从高纬度向低纬度的传播.即从极地传播到70°N。高纬度和低纬度的影响在70°N附近汇合。     

CMIP5气候模式模拟的北极海冰特征及其季节变化

This paper is focused on the seasonality change of Arctic sea ice extent(SIE) from 1979 to 2100 using newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5).A new approach to compare the simulation metric of Arctic SIE between observation and 31 CMIP5 models was established.The approach is based on four factors including the climatological average,linear trend of SIE,span of melting season and annual range of SIE.It is more objective and can be popularized to other comparison of models.Six good models(GFDL-CM3,CESM1-BGC,MPI-ESM-LR,ACCESS-1.0,Had GEM2-CC,and Had GEM2-AO in turn) are found which meet the criterion closely based on above approach.Based on ensemble mean of the six models,we found that the Arctic sea ice will continue declining in each season and firstly drop below 1 million km~2(defined as the ice-free state) in September 2065 under RCP4.5 scenario and in September 2053 under RCP8.5 scenario.We also study the seasonal cycle of the Arctic SIE and find out the duration of Arctic summer(melting season) will increase by about 100 days under RCP4.5 scenario and about 200 days under RCP8.5 scenario relative to current circumstance by the end of the 21 st century.Asymmetry of the Arctic SIE seasonal cycle with later freezing in fall and early melting in spring,would be more apparent in the future when the Arctic climate approaches to "tipping point",or when the ice-free Arctic Ocean appears.Annual range of SIE(seasonal melting ice extent) will increase almost linearly in the near future 30–40 years before the Arctic appears ice-free ocean,indicating the more ice melting in summer,the more ice freezing in winter,which may cause more extreme weather events in both winter and summer in the future years.     

Quasi-biennial variations in ozone and meteorological parameters over western Europe from ozonesonde data

Quasi-biennial variations in vertical profiles of ozone, temperature, air pressure, and zonal and meridional wind velocities are analyzed from ozonesonde data obtained at the western European stations of Lindenberg, Hohenpeissenberg, and Payerne. The effect of quasi-biennial variations manifests itself variously in different variables and is nonuniform in altitude. The period of quasi-biennial variations is not constant, and the values of the mean period group mainly around 2 and 2.5 years. As in the North American region, the effects of quasi-biennial variations in different parameters of the stratosphere and troposphere over western Europe are due to a combination of the effects of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial stratosphere, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The observed 2.5-year variations in stratospheric ozone are related to the equatorial QBO to a larger extent in comparison with variations in other variables. It seems likely that a determining influence on variations in stratospheric wind and temperature is exerted by the ENSO. Variations in tropospheric and stratospheric parameters with a mean period of about 2 years are due to the ENSO and NAO effects.     

Fisheries development in northeastern Asia in conjunction with changes in climate and social systems

The status and prospects of fisheries in northeastern Asia are reviewed in conjunction with climate change and social issues. This region has the biggest yield, consumption, and international trade of fisheries products in the world. Due to increasing industrialization and greenhouse gas emissions, higher rates of warming have occurred. The impacts of climate change on fisheries could be detrimental because the main fishery products are small pelagic fish whose biomass fluctuations are sensitive to climate changes. Improvements in the economies of the nations in this region offset the demand for fish products in human diets, and employment in fisheries. It is recommended that fisheries management plans consider both changes in climate and in social systems. Stocks which migrate between national jurisdictions are in need of particular attention.     

Nudging of vertical profiles of meteorological parameters in one-dimensional atmospheric model: A step towards improvements in numerical simulations

In this article, we describe a simple yet effective method for insertion of observational datasets in a mesoscale atmospheric model used in one-dimensional configuration through Nudging. To demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique, vertical profiles of meteorological parameters obtained from GLASS Sonde launches from a tiny island of Kaashidhoo in the Republic of Maldives are injected in a mesoscale atmospheric model — Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS), and model simulated parameters are compared with the available observational datasets. Analysis of one-time nudging in the model simulations over Kaashidhoo show that incorporation of this technique reasonably improves the model simulations within a time domain of +6 to +12 Hrs, while its impact on +18 Hrs simulations and beyond becomes literally null.     

Comparative analysis of different vascular tone sensitivity parameters to meteorological and geomagnetic factors

Long series of daily measurements of the vascular tone parameters, such as blood pressure (BP), pulse wave velocity (PWV), and endothelial function (EF), have been performed on one volunteer for three years. The Tonocard device, which was designed for this experiment, is used. To analyze the sensitivity these parameters to geomagnetic and meteorological factors, two independent approaches have been used. One of them is based on traditional methods of mathematical statistics; the other is based on pattern-recognition theory. The results obtained using these methods are in very good agreement, both qualitatively and quantitatively. It has been found that the volunteer’s systolic blood pressure (SBP), PWV, and EF were substantially affected by a complex of meteorological factors. Sensitivity to geomagnetic activity has been found only for the PWV. It is suggested that a decrease in the elasticity of vessel walls, which is reflected by this indicator, is a more pronounced and specific human reaction to geomagnetic disturbances than regular BP changes.     

Influence of the monsoon climate on the distribution of neuston copepods in the Northeastern Indian ocean

The horizontal distribution of the near-surface (neuston) copepods of the family Pontellidae was studied on the meridional transects through the central part of the Indian ocean between 12°N and 12°S and in the Bay of Bengal in the summer monsoon period. Eleven species of neuston pontellids were found. The common species Labidocera detruncate and Pontellopsis villosa have the sane high frequencies in the central part of the ocean and in the Bay of Bengal. Some species are rarer in the Bay of Bengal than in the central part of the ocean. In contrast, other species are more frequent in the Bay of Bengal. The special traits of the distribution in the Bay of Bengal coincide with the lower salinity in the bay than in the central ocean. The distribution of some neritic species from the Bay of Bengal to the south is dependent on the intensification of the water translocation to the south in the summer. In the central part of the Indian Ocean, the distribution of the common neustonic pontellids is similar in the periods of the summer and winter monsoons. It is the result of the occupation of the region by the same equatorial water masses.     

Mediterranean functioning and sapropel formation: respective influences of climate and hydrological changes in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean

During Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Legs 160 and 161, sapropels were recovered both in the western and eastern Mediterranean. This obliges to a reassessment of the previous studies focused on sapropels from only the eastern Mediterranean, and to consider the changes which occurred in the Mediterranean climate but also in the water characteristics both in the Atlantic and in the western Mediterranean. In the North Atlantic, the position of the polar front which migrated southwards during glacial times and the melting of northern ice caps during interglacial periods, together with the convection in the Labrador and Norwegian Seas, appear essential to control the salinities of the waters facing the Strait of Gibraltar. The salinities of the surface and intermediate layers constitute the first driving force of the Mediterranean dynamics, the second driving force being the Mediterranean climate. The stagnation of deep waters leading to sapropel deposition in the western Mediterranean may be explained by a drastic weakening of the density difference between Mediterranean outflow and Atlantic intermediate waters facing the Strait of Gibraltar. This weakening was induced primarily by the salinity decrease of Atlantic surface water and secondly by a rather high salinity in the Atlantic intermediate layer, rather than by a drastic deterioration of the Mediterranean climate. This scenario probably concerns most of the sapropel events and it may be used for the knowledge of Atlantic and Mediterranean functioning over climatic changes.     

Quantifying uncertainty in extreme values of design parameters with resampling techniques

In this paper, a methodology for the selection of statistical models for describing the extreme wave heights on the basis of resampling techniques is presented. Two such techniques are evaluated: the jackknife and the bootstrap. The methods are applied to two high-quality datasets of wave measurements in the Mediterranean and one from the East Coast of the USA. The robustness of the estimates of the extreme values of wave heights at return periods important for coastal engineering design is explored further. In particular, we demonstrate how an ensemble error norm can be used to select the most appropriate extreme probability model from a choice of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). This error norm is based on the mean error norm of the optimised CDF for each resampled (replicate) data series. The resampling approach is also used to present confidence intervals of the CDF parameters. We provide a brief discussion of the sensitivity of these parameters and the suitability of each model in terms of uncertainty with resampling techniques. The advantages of resampling are outlined, and the superiority of the bootstrap over the jackknife in quantifying the uncertainty of extreme quantiles is demonstrated for these records.