Principles of Probabilistic Regional Mineral Resource Estimation

Five principal sources of uncertainty in quantitative mineral resource estimation are listed and illustrated by means of a simple example (mosaic model) and a case history study for large copper deposits in the Abitibi area of the Canadian Shield. Abitibi copper potential originally was estimated on the basis of 1968 estimates of production and reserves totalling 3.12 Mt Cu. This prognostication now could be evaluated on the basis of 2008 copper production and reserves totalling 9.50 Mt Cu. An earlier hindsight study performed on the basis of 1977 data (totalling 5.23 Mt Cu) showed seven new discoveries occurring either in the immediate vicinities of known deposits or on broad regional copper anomalies predicted from the 1968 inputs. By 1977, the global geographic distribution pattern of large copper deposits in the Abitibi area had stabilized. During the next 30 years, new copper was essentially found close to existing deposits, much of it deeper down in the Earth's crust. In this paper, uncertainties associated with copper ore tonnage are analyzed by comparison of 2008 data with 1968 data using (a) log-log plots of size versus rank, and (b) lognormal QQ-plots. Straight lines fitted by least squares on these plots show that 1968 slopes provide good estimates of 2008 slopes but 1968 intercepts are much less than 2008 intercepts. In each linear log-weight versus log-rank plot, the slope is related to fractal dimension of a Pareto frequency distribution, and in a lognormal QQ-plot it is determined by logarithmic variance. The difference between 2008 and 1968 intercepts represents the increase in copper ore production and reserves from 1968 to 2008. The Pareto model fits actual copper and massive sulphides increase over the past 40 years better than the lognormal frequency distribution model for 10 km×10 km cells on favorable environments in the Abitibi area.      

Geology and mineralization of the Tiegelongnan supergiant porphyry-epithermal Cu (Au,Ag) deposit (10 Mt) in western Tibet,China: A review

The Tiegelongnan Cu(Au,Ag)deposit in central Tibet contains more than 10 Mt of copper ranking 29 th in the world.It is characterized by typical porphyry-epithermal alteration and mineralization.In order to improve the understanding of porphyry-epithermal copper deposit in Tibet,new zircon U-Pb age and sulfur isotope data along with published data in the Tiegelongnan are presented to investigate the formation and preservation mechanism.Ore-related intrusive rocks in the Tiegelongnan including Early Cretaceous(about 120 Ma)granodiorite porphyry and diorite porphyry are closely related to the northward subduction of Bangongco-Nujiang ocean.Sulfur mainly comes from deep magma,and ore-forming fluid is affected by both magmatic and meteoric water.The metallogenic setting of Tiegelongnan is consistent with those of Andean porphyry copper deposits in South America.The cover of the Meiriqiecuo Formation volcanic rocks,Lhasa-Qiangtang collision and India-Eurasian collision have significance in the preservation and uplift of the deposit.The formation,preservation and discovery of Tiegelongnan play an important role in exploration of ancient porphyry-epithermal deposits in Tibet.     

Carbon cycle variability in tropical Atlantic across two Early Eocene hyperthermals

Early Eocene hyperthermals are geologically short-lived global warming events and represent fundamental perturbations to the global carbon cycle and the Earth’s ecosystem due to massive additions of isotopically light carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system.They serve as ancient analogs for understanding how the oceanic carbonate system and surface-ocean ecosystem would respond to ongoing and future climate change.Here,we present a continuous carbonate record across the Eocene Thermal Maximum 2(ETM2 or H1,ca.54.1 Ma)and H2(ca.54 Ma)events from an expanded section at Ocean Drilling Program Site 1258 in tropical Atlantic.The abundant calcareous nannofossils and moderate carbonate content throughout the studied interval suggest this record was deposited above the calcite compensation depth(CCD),but below the lysocline and under the influence of terrestrial dilution.An Earth system model cGENIE is used to simulate the carbon cycle dynamics across the ETM2 and H2 to offer insights on the mechanism of the rapid warming and subsequent recovery in climate and ecosystem.The model suggests moderate changes in ocean pH(0.1–0.2 unit)for the two scenarios,biogenic methane from a rechargeable methane capacitor and organic matter oxidation from thawing of the permafrost.These pH changes are consistent with a recent independent pH estimate across the ETM2 using boron isotopes.The carbon emission flux during the ETM2 is at least an order of magnitude smaller than that during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum(PETM)(0.015–0.05 Pg C yr^-1vs.0.3–1.7 Pg C yr^-1).The comparable pre-and post-event carbonate contents suggest the lysocline did not over deepen following the ETM2 at this tropical Atlantic site,indicating spatial heterogeneity in the carbonate system due to strong dilution influence from terrestrial weathering and riverine discharge at Site 1258.     

Geochronological and geochemical constraints on the petrogenesis of late Mesoproterozoic mafic and granitic rocks in the southwestern Yangtze Block

Late Mesoproterozoic igneous rocks in the SW Yangtze Block are important for understanding the role of it in reconstruction of the Rodinia supercontinent.In the present study,we report new geochronological,geochemical,and Nd-Hf isotopic data for the Cuoke plagioclase amphibolites and granites in the SW Yangtze Block.Geochronological results show that the plagioclase amphibolites and granites have similar late Mesoproterozoic zircon U-Pb ages of 1168-1162 Ma,constituting a bimodal igneous assemblage.The plagioclase amphibolites have high and variable TiO2 contents(1.15-4.30 wt.%)and Mg#(34-66)values,similar to the tholeiitic series.They are characterized by enrichment in LREEs and LILEs,and have OIB-like affinities with positive Nb and Ta anomalies.The plagioclase amphibolites have positive whole-rockεNd(t)(+3.2 to+4.3)and zirconεHf(t)(+4.3 to+10.7)values,indicating that they were derived from an OIB-like asthenospheric mantle source.The granites belong to the reduced peralkaline A-type series and have negativeεNd(t)value of-6.0 andεHf(t)values of-5.8 to-13.8,indicating a derivation from the partial melting of ancient mafic lower crust.In combination with the~1.05-1.02 Ga bimodal igneous assemblage in the SW Yangtze Block,we propose that the Cuoke 1168-1162 Ma igneous rocks were likely formed in a continental rift basin and argue against the existance of Grenvillian Orogen in the SW Yangtze Block during the late Mesoproterozoic.     

Analysis of prospecting polymetallic metallogenic belts by comprehensive geophysical method

This paper is based on the analysis and research on the silver-lead-zinc polymetallic ore in New Ballyhoo Banner in southern Manzhouli of Inner Mongolia.Because metal mineralization brings rock formations,the geophysical features such as low resistivity,high polarization rate and uneven distribution of magnetization,the comprehensive geophysical methods are adopted including high-precision magnetic measurement,high-power induced polarization,IP field middle gradient and controlled source audio-frequency magnetotellurics.In the survey work of multi-metal ore deposits,from surface sweeping to single point measurement,and from single point to section going deeper layer by layer,the resolution of measurement is continuously improved,and various geophysical methods support and complement each other,so explorers can successfully predict the direction,scale and volume of the metallogenic belts in conjunction with geochemical exploration,geological survey and drilling.It has provided a strong basis for completing the exploration task of predicting the reserve volume of ore bodies.The research conclusions of this exploration case have thus a high reference value in the same type of exploration work.     

利用Grapher绘制彩色渐变剖面平面图

在物探扫面工作中,有大量的剖面数据需要绘制成剖面平面图,要求寻找一个高效快速的制图方法.通过对Grapher 自动化功能的分析和实践,编制程序实现了快速绘制彩色渐变剖面平面图的需求,说明利用自动化脚本能够在获得精美图件的同时,可以极大地提高作图效率.     

冷生风化作用对边坡稳定性影响

The experiment shows that considerable influence on density rock properties are subjected by nival weathering conditions. The main parameter defining the rock suitability for solution various engineering and geological problems is its firmness limit on single axis pressing. The firmness properties of sandstone being in absolutely dry condition for Kabakta suite at the beginning of investigation was 64.7 MPa, for Nerungri suite sandstones it was 48. 7 MPa. The investigations showed how much the nival conditions of cryohypergenesis of rock sandstones in Kabakta and Nerungri suites have destructive influence in comparison with aquale and more over aerale conditions. In the aerale conditions sedimentary rock firmness of Kabakta suite decreased to 23.2 MPa, in aquale conditions to 16.5, and in the nivale conditions to 8.9 MPa. In Nerungri suite sandstones are according to 17.7 MPa, 11.1 MPa, and 6 MPa after 300 freezing and thawing cycles. The common sandstone firmness decrease of Kabakta suite was 25 %,of Nerungri suite it was 23.8%. Marlstone samples after 400 FTC decrease to 62% in the nivale conditions and to 33 % in the aerale conditions. After 3～5 years of exploitation marlstone will destruct due to structural and textural inhomogenesis up to gruss, i.e. it will not meet the requirements of durability.Judging by the results of carried out experiment it should be concluded that by cryogenic weathering the sedimentary rocks (sandstones) and rocks with schistose lithogenic texture (marlstone) are subjected to disintegration. The primary rock samples firmness considerably influences on the disintegration rate.     

Cenozoic Sea‐land Transition and its Petroleum Geological Significance in the Northern South China Sea

The process of Cenozoic sea-land changes in the northern South China Sea(SCS)controlled the sedimentary filling pattern and played an important role in the petroleum geological characteristics of the northern marginal sedimentary basins.Under the control of the opening process of the SCS,the northern SCS Cenozoic transgression generally showed the characteristics of early in the east and late in the west,and early in the south and late in the north.The initial transgression occurred in the Eocene in the Taixinan Basin(TXNB)of the eastern SCS,while the transgression occurred until the Pliocene in the Yinggehai Basin(YGHB)of the western SCS.International Ocean Discovery Program(IODP)expeditions(Expeditions 367/368)revealed that the initial transgression of the SCS basin occurred at approximately 34 Ma,which was the initial opening time of the SCS.The period of drastic changes in the sedimentary environment caused by large-scale transgression corresponded to the opening time of the southwestern subbasin(approximately 23 Ma),which also represented the peak of the spreading of the SCS.The sea-land transition process controls the distribution of alternating continent-marine facies,marine facies source rocks and reservoirs in the basins.The marine facies source rocks of the basins in the northern SCS have a trend of gradually becoming younger from east to west,which is consistent with the regional process of gradual transgression from east to west.Regional sea-level changes were comprehensively influenced by SCS opening and global sea-level changes.These processes led to the early development in the east and south and late development in the west and north for the carbonate platform in the SCS.Carbonate platforms form another type of"selfgenerating and self-accumulating"oil-gas reservoir in the northern SCS.The sea-land transition controlled the depositional filling patterns of different basins and laid the foundation of marine deposits for oil and gas resources.The source-reservoircap assemblage in the northern SCS was controlled horizontally by provenance supply and sedimentary environmental changes caused by sea-land transition and vertically by the tectonic evolution of the SCS and regional sea-level changes.     

《同一个地质计划》的进展与对策

《同一个地质计划（OneGeology）》最初由英国地质调查局于2006年2月提出,已得到全球地学组织的支持。到2007年底,国际地球科学联合会等10个全球学术团体与国际地学组织、2个跨国公司、2位知名人士和67个国家的地质调查局参加了该计划。《同一个地质计划》是各个国家的地质调查局贡献给国际行星地球年的、约1：100万比例尺的、可在网络上很容易取得最好世界地质图数据的计划。该计划的目标是：使可用的地质图数据能被更多的人使用,使需要的人受益,促进互操作能力的增强。《同一个地质计划》的实施,可以提升全球、大陆、行星、海洋地球科学图的编制和出版的合作能力。深化对一些地区地质问题的研究,并可作为国际地球行星年一个切实可用的成果,提升国家地质调查局的形象;运用管理地学知识的领导能力和经验,通过教育、科学、文化和交流。能够处理全球污染对社会、经济和环境的影响问题。促进全球环境保护公约的执行,减缓自然灾害,使全球经济可持续发展,人们的居住环境更安全、更繁荣。精神生活更丰富、更快乐。因此,实施该计划不仅有现实意义,更有重要而深远的政治意义。     

Geochemical Characterizations of Source and Depositional Environment of Hydrocarbons in the Lake Albert Rift Basin

Despite the upsurge in hydrocarbon exploration in the Lake Albert Rift Basin(LARB)over the past three decades,systematic characterization of hydrocarbon compositions remains lacking,leading to uncertainties in source rock and oil generation determination.We characterized crude oil compositions and oil sand samples in the northern and southern subbasins of LARB.The relative abundance of normal and branched linear alkanes,hopanes,steranes,and aromatic hydrocarbon suggest that northern and southern hydrocarbons were deposited in anoxic to suboxic lacustrine environments and share similar biological source compositions(i.e.,a mixture of plants and aquatic algae and bacteria).Relative to southern samples,northern samples show more negative δ¹³C values for oils,saturates and aromatics,indicating longer migration paths,and exhibit higher MPI-1,DNR-1 and 4-/1-MDBT ratios,indicating higher maturity.Between the two possible sets of source rocks(upper Miocene and Jurassic strata),the positive δ¹³C values of saturated hydrocarbons(average=-20.5‰)suggest that the upper Miocene lacustrine shale is the most likely candidate.Oleanane index(<5% in our samples)does not exclude either source rock possibility,and C₂₈/C₂₉ regular sterane(average=0.63)may be biased by high terrestrial inputs in a lacustrine setting.Together,our data show that northern and southern oils originate from the same source rocks but different oil kitchens.Given the similar geochemical characteristics of southern and northern oils,previous exploration successes in the northern subbasin likely suggest similar potential in the southern sector,while other elements influencing exploration success must be also evaluated.     

Re-Os同位素体系在蛇绿岩应用研究中的进展

Re-Os不同于由亲石元素构成的同位素体系，在原始上地幔（PUN）部分熔融过程中，母体Re是中等不相容元素，优先进入熔体相，子体Os是强相容元素，富集在残留相中，是研究蛇绿岩的极好示踪剂。在蛇绿岩应用研究中已经取得了4个方面的进展：（1）明确了熔体相的Re／Os和^187Os／^188Os比值高，而残留相的低；（2）铬铁矿中铂族元素矿物（PGM）的Re亏损年龄（TRD）证实了蛇绿岩中复杂的超镁铁岩体是多阶段部分熔融的产物；（3）现代大洋橄榄岩和玄武岩的Re-Os同位素研究表明熔体相和残留相的^187Os／^188Os比值在高于亏损地幔值（DMM）的部分是一致的，而低于DMM的存在不一致性，为研究蛇绿岩中熔体相与残留相是否存在“耦合”关系提供了新的制约因素；（4）揭示了蛇绿岩地幔橄榄岩中含有古大陆岩石圈地幔，这是前所未知的。虽然取得了不少进展，但是由于Re-Os同位素体系用于蛇绿岩研究的时间较短，尚存在一些问题，如显生宙蛇绿岩地幔橄榄岩的定年问题，有待进一步深化研究。     

基于破坏概率的滑坡稳定性分析

综述了概率分析法的基本原理和实施方法,并运用Monte carlo模拟对滑坡的破坏概率进行了模拟分析。在探讨具体工程实例的基础上,提出了计算机处理滑坡稳定性的程序设计方法。实践表明,滑坡的破坏概率分析是滑坡稳定性评价的有效手段之一。      

基于小波的被动声纳降噪研究

基于小波的降噪理论,研究了水下舰船辐射噪声的被动声纳降噪问题。通过对船辐射噪声的建模和仿真,分析对比了不同方法对舰船辐射噪声信号降噪的效果,并利用各种小波基和采用不同阈值条件下对信号进行降噪处理的效果。该研究在分析对比的基础上,进行小波包软阈值去噪并且取得了较好的效果,对被动声纳降噪提供了较好的应用前景。     

基于概率方法的滑坡稳定性分析

本文概述了滑坡破坏概率分析的基本原理.以三峡库区的龙王庙滑坡为例,论述了地下水对滑坡的作用,进行了滑坡的破坏概率分析,分析结果表明,该滑坡在库水位骤降初期有较高的破坏概率,必须进行治理.     

地下水在弱膨胀性土边坡稳定中的影响

地下水是影响边坡稳定一个重要因素,主要体现为内、外两个方面的影响。经常考虑的地下水对边坡地层重度、强度等方面的影响属于内的方面;地下水还可能对边坡岩土体产生如浮托力、静水压力、动水压力、渗透力等附加力属于外的方面。通过对一弱膨胀性土边坡失稳各阶段、各影响因素下的分析,阐述了地下水在弱膨胀性土边坡稳定分析中内、外方面的不利影响。并得出结论：在边坡稳定分析时,仅考虑地下水对地层重度、抗剪强度等指标的影响,其分析结果偏于不安全;尤其是边坡地层为弱膨胀性土时,浸水后强度大幅下降,应采用浸水试验指标进行边坡稳定性复核;其次还应考虑地下水渗流排泄对边坡产生的附加荷载。     

孔隙压力对碳酸盐岩储层声学特性的影响研究

与传统的砂岩、泥岩不同,缝洞型碳酸盐岩具有较强的非均质性及各向异性,因此利用传统的方法对其进行孔隙压力预测尤为困难。利用声学信息进行孔隙压力预测是一种有效的预测方法,研究孔隙压力对碳酸盐岩储层声学特性的影响,具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。通过对孔洞发育程度不同的缝洞型碳酸盐岩进行不同孔隙压力下的声学实验测试,在实验的基础上,分析了不同孔隙流体压力条件下岩心的声波时差、衰减系数、时频特性,得到了孔隙压力与不同类型碳酸盐岩纵横波时差及衰减系数之间的关系;探讨了孔隙压力对不同类型碳酸盐岩纵横波在时域及频域上的影响。此研究为利用声学特性对碳酸盐岩储层孔隙压力预测提供了借鉴。     

中德合作三江源区和甜水海地区多年冻土退化过程科学考察和研究进展

为准确了解青藏高原多年冻土退化过程及其环境效应,中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所和德国海德堡大学环境物理研究所共同组成科研小组,先后对我国三江源区、西昆仑甜水海地区进行了多年冻土退化过程的前期勘察研究工作.首次在人烟稀少的玉树-不冻泉沿线等地建立了3个长期综合观测研究站.在技术手段上,除应用常规的坑探、水土取样、水分现场观测、地面调查外,主要应用了最新的双天线、多回路探地雷达勘测技术,对不同地貌条件下的活动层结构特征、上限附近冻土结构、冷生组构等诸多方面进行了快速勘察,同时还进行了水分场分布规律、盐份迁移过程的初步研究.研究结果表明:地表景观特征对热质迁移规律、地温场具有重要影响;青藏高原新疆甜水海地区的低温(<-4℃)冻土与高原东部和腹地的高温(>-1℃)冻土在地质背景和地下冰发育情况等方面有所区别;甜水海地区生态环境在过去30多年的时间里已发生重大改变:地表植被发生大面积退化,地表普遍发生不同程度盐渍化;在该地区发现大量小型冻胀丘、石环等冰缘现象的存在.探地雷达勘察结果显示,地表地貌单元、植被分布、地表水分条件的变化均对多年冻土上限变化和地下冰的赋存产生重要影响.     

矿山地质灾害危险性评估中几个问题的商榷

笔者认为,为了合理、有效地开发利用矿产资源,在进行矿山地质灾害危险性评估过程中不要采用“禁采区”,建议采用围护带;在现行“规范”规定的基础上应根据各个矿山的具体情况可适当扩大围护带宽度,但不宜超过30m;在计算煤(矿)层顶板安全厚度的系数取值时,应考虑煤(矿)层倾角和围护等级;只有考虑了这些因素获得的地质灾害危险性评估结论,才具有适用性,才能真正为矿山设计和进行地质灾害防治工作提供科学依据。     

洞庭湖萎缩对湖内洪水影响

为了更好地理解湖泊萎缩对湖内洪水过程的影响,在假定洞庭湖将继续萎缩的前提下,通过建立荆江-洞庭湖水动力模型,定量分析洞庭湖萎缩对湖内洪水的影响。研究结果表明,湖内水位及洪峰流量随湖泊面积的萎缩而增加,洪峰水位到达时刻随着湖泊萎缩而提前。若遇1996年型洪水,洞庭湖面积若从目前的2 670 km2减小至1 380 km2时,西洞庭湖及南洞庭湖内最高水位将抬高2.0 m左右,东洞庭湖水位将抬升0.4 m左右,城陵矶站点洪峰水位到达时刻将提前约11 h,洪峰流量增加约4 800 m3/s。因此,若洞庭湖湖泊面积在目前基础上（面积2 670 km2）继续萎缩,湖区特别是西洞庭湖及南洞庭湖将面临更为严峻的洪水灾害。虽然湖泊萎缩对西洞庭湖与南洞庭湖内水面坡降影响较小,但东洞庭湖内水位同时受湖泊萎缩及长江来流的影响,水面坡降发生较大变化,在距离蔡家洲80~110 km（鹿角站附近）河段水面坡降出现大幅增大。     

青藏高原东缘活动断裂地质灾害效应研究

活动断裂的地质灾害效应是工程地质与地质灾害领域研究的重要内容。本文以第四纪以来构造活动最强烈的青藏高原东缘为例,阐述了活动断裂地质灾害效应的主要表现形式,包括:(1)活动断裂对地形地貌和岩体结构的影响;(2)断裂剧烈活动(地震)诱发地质灾害;(3)断裂蠕滑作用对斜坡应力场和稳定性的影响;(4)断裂活动是地质灾害链的源头,为地质灾害提供物源。上述表现形式及灾害成因机理和分布规律是活动构造区地质灾害防治中需要关注的关键问题。根据青藏高原东缘典型地质灾害案例研究提出,内外动力耦合作用成灾机理是未来地质灾害研究方向,将为活动构造区地质灾害早期识别和防灾减灾提供理论依据。