降雨型浅层黄土滑坡危险性评价与区划

黄土高原是我国地质灾害最为发育的地区之一,其中降雨诱发的浅层黄土滑坡又最为典型。以典型黄土地貌区-柳林县为例,应用SINMAP模型,探讨模型在黄土地区的适用性,分析了随着研究区内降雨量的增加,滑坡变形失稳区域的面积变化、分布位置和扩展趋势。研究表明,随着降雨量的增加,滑坡所处位置逐渐由稳定状态向失稳状态发展,位于失稳分区的滑坡数量逐渐增加,说明降雨对该研究区的斜坡稳定性影响较为明显。通过将模拟结果与实际发生的由降雨触发的滑坡灾害进行对比分析,可以得出SINMAP模型在黄土地区,对区域性降雨诱发浅层黄土滑坡稳定性的模拟预测有效,可以用于黄土地区浅层滑坡的稳定性评价研究。     

降雨对多年冻土区浅层滑坡失稳的影响研究

近年来青藏高原多年冻土地区降雨量呈增大趋势,导致活动层沿多年冻土层滑脱,诱发的冻土浅层滑坡灾害严重影响区域生态环境和人类活动。冻土浅层滑坡失稳是渗流、温度和应力复杂耦合的过程,明确降雨条件下多年冻土斜坡水热力响应机制,揭示降雨诱发冻土浅层滑坡失稳的机理十分关键。基于冻土水热力耦合数值模拟方法,建立了仅施加气温变化的模型一和在气温变化基础上施加强度为9 mm·d^-1、持续降雨18 d的模型二,探讨了低强度、长时间降雨对多年冻土斜坡水热力演化的影响。结果表明：夏季雨水入渗对斜坡浅层温度场产生扰动,进而影响土体冻融过程,活动层以下有形成富水层的可能。雨水入渗导致融土饱和度大幅增加,水分渗流方向由竖直向下逐渐转变为顺坡方向。极限状态下斜坡位移分布在活动层,符合冻土浅层滑坡变形特征,降雨入渗数天后活动层位移有显著增大的趋势,最大位移所在位置向坡脚转移。降雨对斜坡稳定性影响显著,雨水入渗对活动层水热力产生持续影响,斜坡安全系数最小值出现明显滞后。研究结果为青藏地区冻土浅层滑坡灾害防治提供了科学指导。     

基于降雨响应的黄土丘陵区滑坡危险性预测研究——以宝鸡市麟游县为例

极端降雨易造成群发滑坡灾害,难以作为单体预测.为预测评估黄土丘陵区不同降雨强度诱发滑坡灾害危险性,论文在区域滑坡灾害特征研究的基础上,分析降雨强度特征及滑坡分布特征.以岭南滑坡为代表分析降雨诱发黄土-丘陵区滑坡的形成机制,介绍了无限斜坡模型原理、参数选取,利用GIS空间建模与分析功能,定量完成了无降雨、25 mm、50...     

新疆伊犁加朗普特黄土滑坡泥石流降雨诱发机理

新疆伊犁谷地黄土广泛分布,黄土滑坡灾害严重,其数量占新疆全区滑坡的80%,其中大型黄土滑坡-泥石流灾害链造成的损失尤为显著。与我国西部典型黄土斜坡相比,伊犁谷地黄土斜坡具有坡体结构复杂和降雨非饱和渗流失稳的特征,黄土滑坡降雨诱发机制复杂。以新源县则克台加朗普特大型滑坡泥石流灾害为例,在建立黄土滑坡坡体结构模型的基础上,基于非饱和渗流理论,计算分析坡体非饱和渗流场变化,研究降雨诱发黄土坡体结构渗流破坏过程与机制,采用渗流-稳定性耦合计算方法,分析非饱和渗透诱发坡体结构失稳过程,揭示新疆伊犁谷地大型黄土滑坡降雨非饱和渗流失稳机理。     

融合历史降雨下斜坡稳定性观测信息的可靠度分析

降雨诱发斜坡失稳机理及可靠度分析通常忽略了现场观测信息的影响,包括斜坡在天然条件下保持稳定或经历历史降雨后保持稳定等观测信息.以无限长斜坡模型为例,采用贝叶斯更新方法基于“斜坡经历某次历史降雨后仍保持稳定”这一现场观测信息概率反分析空间变异水力和抗剪强度参数,基于蒙特卡洛模拟方法计算不同降雨历时下斜坡失效概率,对比分析忽略观测信息对斜坡失效概率估计所造成的影响.结果表明：概率反分析通过融合历史降雨下斜坡稳定性观测信息,可有效排除因抗剪强度参数空间变异性导致斜坡沿软弱层发生失稳的可能性,为客观评价降雨诱发的空间变异斜坡失效概率奠定了基础.如果忽略“斜坡经历某次历史降雨后仍保持稳定”这一观测信息会明显高估斜坡失效概率,尤其在降雨初期.本研究成果为揭示降雨诱发斜坡失稳机制提供新的视角.     

降雨诱发浅层滑坡稳定性的计算模型研究

我国是一个滑坡灾害频发的国家,众多事实表明：降雨是影响边坡稳定性,导致边坡失稳的最主要和最普遍的环境因素,是浅层滑坡的触发因素。为了更好地对降雨诱发浅层滑坡进行研究,采用非饱和土VG模型与改进的Green-Ampt入渗模型对Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型进行改进,并结合无限边坡提出了一个降雨诱发浅层滑坡的简化计算模型。与以往提出的简化计算模型相比,该模型既考虑了坡面倾斜的影响,又考虑了非饱和土的特性,并可用于两种降雨形式下的边坡浅层稳定性估算,具有更广的应用范围。通过与有限元得到的结果进行比较可得：在不同降雨条件下,该计算模型得到的各项结果与数值解是接近的,安全系数计算结果是偏于安全的,因此,可将该计算模型用于降雨诱发浅层滑坡的近似估算;该计算模型公式简单,便于计算,计算效率较高。     

基于原位监测的浅层黄土斜坡水分运移规律分析

降雨诱发的浅层黄土滑坡是黄土高原重要的地质灾害类型之一.斜坡水分空间分布和变化趋势是导致斜坡失稳的重要因素,但基于此的剖面监测数据较少.依托延安黄土地质灾害野外观测基地,选择典型黄土斜坡,在坡面布设两条5m深的水分探测纵剖面,观测在降雨过程中斜坡水分的空间特征.监测结果显示:1)降雨引起的土壤含水率变化深度有限,与降雨...     

基于诱发机理的降雨型滑坡预警研究——以花岗岩风化壳二元结构斜坡为例

降雨型滑坡是我国主要的滑坡灾害类型,具有区域群集发生的特点,滑坡预警研究是防灾减灾的重要途径。传统的区域降雨型滑坡预报模型多采用统计结果建立降雨参数模型,对降雨诱发机理和斜坡失稳的力学机制考虑不足,预报可靠性和精度有限。本文以花岗岩风化壳地区某典型二元结构斜坡为原型,以实际勘查数据为基础,提取该斜坡结构特征,基于饱和-非饱和渗流理论,分析研究降雨入渗过程和斜坡失稳机制,建立典型斜坡的预警判据。1花岗岩风化壳地区典型二元结构斜坡为类土质斜坡,覆盖土层较厚,剖面上可分为两层,上层为坡积黏性土,土质松散,透水性强,下层为残积黏性土,土质相对致密,透水性较差。2采用不同降雨工况模拟分析降雨入渗过程。以50mm·d-1雨强为例,降雨持时30h以内时,降雨入渗主要集中在上层的坡积黏性土,斜坡前缘优先饱和,滑带开始出现积水现象;降雨持时40～50h时,斜坡表面降水持续入渗,在坡体后缘拉裂缝处,雨水沿着裂缝快速入渗坡体形成静水压力,增加坡体重量,增大下滑力,坡脚渗透路径短,最先饱和破坏,造成斜坡失稳。3监测斜坡不同部位（坡脚、中部、后缘）的孔隙水压力情况,随降雨入渗,斜坡土体孔隙水压力持续增大,由负趋近于零到大于零,斜坡土体由非饱和状态向饱和状态过渡,坡脚最先饱和,中部持续入渗,后缘土体饱和后,裂缝扩大致使大量雨水进入,使本已大量积水的滑带变形错动,斜坡失稳。4模拟分析得到斜坡失稳的不同降雨条件:中雨雨强（10mm·d-1）,历时约13d;大雨雨强（25mm·d-1）,历时约5d;暴雨雨强（50mm·d-1）,历时约2.2d;特大暴雨雨强（100mm·d-1）,历时约1.1d。在暴雨雨强时,降雨对该类斜坡的滞后作用约为5h。最后,建立了该类斜坡的临界降雨判据（I-D曲线）。     

蒙特卡罗模拟在区域地震滑坡灾害评价中应用

2004年10月23日,日本新泻中越地区发生史上最强地震之一,震级达到Mw6.6。这次地震诱发上千个规模大小不一、形式各样的滑坡,造成一定的灾害损失和人员伤亡。因此,为了有效地避免和减轻这方面的灾害,有必要有效地、科学地预测和评价地震诱发滑坡的空间发生规律。为此以一定的地区作为研究对象,提出了蒙特卡罗随机模拟和Newmark滑动体位移分析法在区域地震斜坡失稳概率分析中的应用。该法充分考虑到岩土参数和相关地震参数空间变异性,结合地理信息系统空间分析的优势,以网格模型为基础,分析该区斜坡滑动体位移分布规律,并以2cm为失稳临界值探讨网格斜坡破坏的概率。实例证明,所提出的模型有效地预测了滑坡发生的空间分布规律。     

基于TRIGRS模型的浅层滑坡稳定性分析

采用基于网格的瞬态降雨入渗(TRIGRS)模型,以滑坡灾害频发的陕南安康市东部巴山东段白河县为研究区,探讨模型适用性及不同降雨条件下边坡稳定性空间分布规律。根据中国土壤分布图并结合已有研究,选取模拟所需的水土力学参数。将模拟所得研究区稳定性分布图与实际滑坡目录对比分析进行TRIGRS模型精度评估,分别模拟连阴雨和短时间强降雨两种降雨情景,探讨研究区边坡稳定性空间分布规律,结果表明:1)TRIGRS模型在模拟预测降雨诱发型浅层滑坡时,结合受试者特征ROC曲线进行精度评估,曲线下面积为0.752,说明此模型在白河县进行滑坡模拟时具有一定的合理性与准确性,能反应该地区滑坡灾害的空间分布特征;2)连阴雨情景模拟下,极不稳定区域主要集中在北部低山地貌区,以冷水镇和麻虎镇为主,随降雨历时增加向东部和南部增多,西部仓上镇、西营镇和双丰镇的极不稳定区域面积较少,能承受长时间连续性降雨。短时间强降雨对边坡稳定性的影响更为直接,极不稳定区域随降雨强度增大而增加,以冷水镇和麻虎镇为主要防范区域。结合地形分析,极陡峭区域边坡稳定性最差,无法承受持续性降雨和高强度降雨,较陡峭区域更易受到降雨历时和降雨强度的影响,而平缓区域则能承受长时间及高强度的降雨;3)TRIGRS模型根据不同降雨条件预测易发生滑坡灾害的区域,为滑坡实时预报警系统提供了新的可能方法。     

Unity of the national and the international in the socio-cultural development of the peoples of the USSR

International unity is becoming ever stronger in this country owing to an increasing similarity in the development of the cultural environment. This comprises the provision of all the country's republics with a sufficient number of schools, theatres, and other institutions and cultural information media in accordance with the needs of the population. An important part is played by the rise in ‘the general educational level, as well as the level of professional qualifications and skills. Among all the Soviet nations and nationalities, this rise being more rapid among formerly backward peoples. Prominent among the factors of internationalization is the progressive development of the nationalities’ cultural resources, while professional culture is being increasingly brought within the reach of the masses.The implementation of the nationalities policy promotes the all-round development of all Soviet nations and nationalities, their drawing together, the upsurge of the individual capabilities of every Soviet citizen.     

Report of the restudy of the defined global stratotype of the base of the Silurian System

The Global Stratotype Section and Point （GSSP） for the base of the Silurian System was defined in 1985. Since that time, a number of researchers have suggested that this section has serious deficiencies for use as a GSSP. As a result, in 2000, the Subcommission on Silurian Stratigraphy （SSS） proposed undertaking a formal restu@ of this GSSP, which was subsequently approved by the International Commission of Stratigraphy （ICS）. The result of this restudy was the formal proposal that the current GSSP, at 1.6 m above the base of the Birkhill Shale, at Dob＇s Linn, Scotland, should be maintained as the same locality and stratigraphic level, but the bios- tratigraphical definition of the boundary should be revised. The previously defined, basal Silurian grapto- lite zone, the Parakidograptus acuminatus Zone, should be subdivided into a lower Akidograptus ascensus Zone and a higher E acuminatus Zone. The base of the A. ascensus Zone, marked by the first appearance of A. ascensus, should be regarded as the biostratigraphic mark for the base of the Silurian. This proposal has now been formally approved by the SSS and ICS, and ratified by International Union of Geological Sciences. This is the first GSSP to undergo formal restudy and redefini- tion, and the proposal also included a recommended procedure for restudy of GSSPs.     

Deviation of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth

It is known from observations that the center of mass of the Moon does not coincide with the geometric center of its figure, and the line connecting these two centers is not aligned with the direction toward the center of the Earth, instead deviating toward the Southeast. This stationary deviation of the axis of the inertia ellipsoid of the Moon to the South of the direction toward the Earth is analyzed. A system of five linear differential equations describing the physical libration of the Moon in latitude is considered, and these equations are derived using a new vector method taking into account perturbations from the Earth and partly from the Sun. The characteristic equation of this system is obtained, and all five oscillation frequencies are found. Special attention is paid to the fifth (zero) frequency, for which the solution of the latitude libration equations are stationary and represents a previously unknown additional motion of the rotational axis of theMoon in a cone with a small opening angle. In contrast to the astronomical precession of the Earth, the rotation of the angular-velocity vector is in the positive direction (counter-clockwise), with the period T ₃ = 27.32 days. On this basis, this phenomenon has been named “quasi-precession.” This quasi-precession leads to a stationary inclination of the major axis of the inertia ellipsoid of theMoon to the South (for an observer on Earth), making it possible to explain one component of the observed deviation of the center of mass of the Moon from the direction toward the Earth. The opening angle of the quasiprecession cone is approximately 0.834″.     

The Tendencies of the Development of the Mineral-Resources Sector at the Turn of the Century

Important tendencies in development of the world mineral-resources sector at the beginning of the 21st century were an increase in production and consumption of mineral materials differentiated by types of metals and nonmetallic mineral raw materials, by countries and regions, as well as the concentration of the production of mineral raw materials in a small number of countries, and a reduction in industrial reserves of minerals in the world economy, even at the current stage of their extraction. These tendencies should be taken into account in working out a strategy for development of the Russian mineral raw-material base.     

Causes of the famine among the rural population of the Sahelian zone of the Sudan

Taking the example of W Sudan, an analysis of the climatic incidents leading to the two recent famine disasters is made. On this natural background, the human side is investigated. Focus is directed towards the fragile economic structure of the famine-prone population groups. An early-warning system for famine in the Sahelian Zone is proposed taking grain production and storage, livestock development and the relationship between the prices of livestock and grain as major indicators.     

东濮凹陷北部沙河街组三段中亚段沉积环境分析

东濮凹陷北部沙三中亚段广泛发育盐岩和烃源岩,这两个看似不能共存的物质却在这里互层共生。该时期研究区沉积特征为多盐韵律与多层烃源岩互层共生、连续沉积,单个盐韵律厚度从几米到十几米,烃源岩有机质丰度高、类型好。平面上,两者在湖盆沉积沉降中心共生;垂向上,高有机质丰度、好干酪根类型与高盐度地层具有较好的对应关系。因而成为恢复古气候和古环境的重要研究对象。通过岩石学、古生物学以及Sr/Ba、B/Ga、(V+Ni+Mn)、Fe/Mn、Sr/Cu、Mg/Ca、V/(V+Ni)、稀土元素含量和氯同位素等方法对凹陷北部沙三中亚段的沉积环境进行研究。结果表明,凹陷北部沙三中亚段为深水沉积的还原环境,古盐度较高,达到半咸水-咸水沉积;微量元素和孢粉化石特征表明研究区沙三中亚段为温暖潮湿的环境。     

On the consistency of proposed models for the Pyrenees with the structure of the eastern parts of the belt

The structure of the eastern Pyrenees consists mainly of south-directed thrusts involving basement and cover rocks. An antiformal stack developed by the piling up of basement thrust sheets which outcrop in the Axial zone. These structures account for a thin-skinned thrust model rather than a vertical fault model in which the Axial zone would be essentially autochthonous, and the North-Pyrenean fault the axial plane of a fan thrust system. New data from the Eastern Pyrenees and the thin-skinned model suggest that(1) the structure east of the Pedraforca nappe is similar to that of the Central Pyrenees; (2) the cover rocks of the South-Pyrenean units and of the Axial zone-after restoration—built up a northwards-thickening prism consistent with the existence of a unique Pyrenean sedimentary basin during Mesozoic time; (3) the Axial zone is only a complex antiformal stack developed as a part of South-Pyrenean system related to the Paleogene thrusting-tectonics. The Axial zone palaeogeographic area had no special meaning during Mesozoic time.     

The Importance of the Precipitation and the Susceptibility of the Slopes for the Triggering of Landslides Along the Roads

In order to characterise the influence of the heavyrains on the observed landslides during the 1996–1997hydrological cycle, rainfall records for the last 100years are analysed from 104 stations in easternAndalusia. Regarding the amounts of rain recordedbetween October 1996 and March 1997 in the 104stations studied, 31 presented new all-time records;15 presented values that were 80–100% of thepre-1995 record; 49 stations, 80–50%; and 9stations, < 50%. A map has been devised of thesusceptibility of the materials through which thesouth-eastern Andalusian road network crosses,together with an inventory of the damage caused byinstability phenomena on banks and cuttings of theroad network during the winter of 1996–1997. Therelationships between the rainfall during the studyperiod, the damage caused to the road network and thesusceptibility of the materials affected are analysed.The results indicate that there is a clearcorrespondence between the rainfall recorded and thesusceptibility of the materials with the inventorieddamage. It is concluded that the widespread seriousdamage caused in early 1997 to the roads andsurrounding areas in the Alpujarra region and thecoast of the Province of Granada was mainly caused bythe extraordinarily heavy rains. However, considerablyless damage was observed where the susceptibility ofthe terrain is low, thus highlighting the extremeusefulness of terrain-susceptibility maps for riskprevention and territorial planning.