Features of seismic activation of the Middle Baikal region, 2008–2011

Scenarios for developing focal zones of strong (M _w = 5.3) earthquakes that occurred in the Middle Baikal region in 2008 and 2011 are considered. The new (submeridional and sublatitudinal) lines of destruction of the Earth’s crust in the water area of the lake are recorded. The facts of seismoactive structures forming in the surrounding mountains (to the southeast) under typical rift conditions of movements are established, which indicates that the basin of Lake Baikal is expanding and growing due to active capturing and processing of its mountain surroundings.     

Andean earthquakes triggered by the 2010 Maule,Chile (Mw 8.8) earthquake: Comparisons of geodetic,seismic and geologic constraints

The Maule, Chile, (M_w 8.8) earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered deformation events over a broad area, allowing investigation of stress redistribution within the upper crust following a mega-thrust subduction event. We explore the role that the Maule earthquake may have played in triggering shallow earthquakes in northwestern Argentina and Chile. We investigate observed ground deformation associated with the M_w 6.2 (GCMT) Salta (1450 km from the Maule hypocenter, 9 h after the Maule earthquake), M_w 5.8 Catamarca (1400 km; nine days), M_w 5.1 Mendoza (350 km; between one to five days) earthquakes, as well as eight additional earthquakes without an observed geodetic signal. We use seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations to characterize earthquake location, magnitude and focal mechanism, and characterize how the non-stationary, spatially correlated noise present in the geodetic imagery affects the accuracy of our parameter estimates. The focal mechanisms for the far-field Salta and Catamarca earthquakes are broadly consistent with regional late Cenozoic fault kinematics. We infer that dynamic stresses due to the passage of seismic waves associated with the Maule earthquake likely brought the Salta and Catamarca regions closer to failure but that the involved faults may have already been at a relatively advanced stage of their seismic cycle. The near-field Mendoza earthquake geometry is consistent with triggering related to positive static Coulomb stress changes due to the Maule earthquake but is also aligned with the South America-Nazca shortening direction. None of the earthquakes considered in this study require that the Maule earthquake reactivated faults in a sense that is inconsistent with their long-term behavior.     

Tectonic structures across the East African Rift based on the source parameters of the 20 May 1990 M7.2 Sudan earthquake

Earthquakes in Kenya are common along the Kenya Rift Valley because of the slow divergent movement of the rift and hydrothermal processes in the geothermal fields. This implies slow but continuous radiation of seismic energy, which relieves stress in the subsurface rocks. On the contrary, the NW-SE trending rift/fault zones such as the Aswa-Nyangia fault zone and the Muglad-Anza-Lamu rift zone are the likely sites of major earthquakes in Kenya and the East African region. These rift/fault zones have been the sites of a number of strong earthquakes in the past such as the M _w = 7.2 southern Sudan earthquake of 20 May 1990 and aftershocks of M _w = 6.5 and 7.1 on 24 May 1990, the 1937 M _s = 6.1 earthquake north of Lake Turkana close to the Kenya-Ethiopian border, and the 1913 M _s = 6.0 Turkana earthquake, among others. Source parameters of the 20 May 1990 southern Sudan earthquake show that this earthquake consists of only one event on a fault having strike, dip, and rake of 315°, 84°, and ?3°. The fault plane is characterized by a left-lateral strike slip fault mechanism. The focal depth for this earthquake is 12.1 km, seismic moment M _o = 7.65 × 10¹⁹ Nm, and moment magnitude, M _w = 7.19 (?7.2). The fault rupture started 15 s earlier and lasted for 17 s along a fault plane having dimensions of ?60 km × 40 km. The average fault dislocation is 1.1 m, and the stress drop, ?σ, is 1.63 MPa. The distribution of historical earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5) from southern Sudan through central Kenya generally shows a NW-SE alignment of epicenters. On a local scale in Kenya, the NW–SE alignment of epicenters is characterized by earthquakes of local magnitude M _l ≤ 4.0, except the 1928 Subukia earthquake (M _s = 6.9) in central Kenya. This NW–SE alignment of epicenters is consistent with the trend of the Aswa-Nyangia Fault Zone, from southern Sudan through central Kenya and further southwards into the Indian Ocean. We therefore conclude that the NW–SE trending rift/fault zones are sites of strong earthquakes likely to pose the greatest earthquake hazard in Kenya and the East African region in general.     

Recent geodynamics of the Kuril subduction zone

The collected GPS/GLONASS data allow us to reveal new information on the recent geodynamics of the Kuril Island arc. The maximum deformation stress accumulates in the southern and northern parts of the study area, while a long fading transition process of postseismic motions is observed in the central segment of the Kuril arc as a result of the 2006–2007 great Simushir earthquakes of M _w = 8.3 and M _w = 8.1. We have succeeded in revealing the recent interplate coupling geometry of the Pacific and the North American lithospheric plates and also in estimating the seismic potential of different segments of the Kuril subduction zone.     

Source parameters of earthquakes in the reservoir-triggered seismic (RTS) zone of Koyna–Warna, Western India

New empirical relations are derived for source parameters of the Koyna–Warna reservoir-triggered seismic zone in Western India using spectral analysis of 38 local earthquakes in the magnitude range M _L 3.5–5.2. The data come from a seismic network operated by the CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute, India, during March 2005 to April 2012 in this region. The source parameters viz. seismic moment, source radius, corner frequency and stress drop for the various events lie in the range of 10¹³–10¹⁶ Nm, 0.1–0.4 km, 2.9–9.4 Hz and 3–26 MPa, respectively. Linear relationships are obtained among the seismic moment (M ₀), local magnitude (M _L), moment magnitude (M _w), corner frequency (fc) and stress drop (?σ). The stress drops in the Koyna–Warna region are found to increase with magnitude as well as focal depths of earthquakes. Interestingly, accurate depths derived from moment tensor inversion of earthquake waveforms show a strong correlation with the stress drops, seemingly characteristic of the Koyna–Warna region.     

Estimating tsunami potential of earthquakes in the Sumatra–Andaman region based on broadband seismograms in India

In this paper, we report that the ratio of broadband energy (0.01?C2?Hz) to high-frequency energy (0.3?C2?Hz), E _r, estimated from regional seismograms of India, might be a useful parameter in estimating tsunami potential of earthquakes in the Sumatra?CAndaman region. E _r is expected to be sensitive to the depth as well as to the source characteristics of an earthquake. Since a shallow and slow earthquake has a greater tsunamigenic potential, E _r may be a useful diagnostic parameter. We base our analysis on broadband seismograms of the great earthquakes of Sumatra?CAndaman (2004, M _w?~?9.2) and Nias (2005, M _w 8.6), 41 of their aftershocks, and the earthquakes of north Sumatra (2010, M _w 7.8) and Nicobar (2010, M _w 7.4) recorded at VISK, a station located on the east coast of India. In the analysis, we also included the two recent, great strike-slip earthquakes of north Sumatra (2012, M _w 8.6, 8.2) recorded at VISK and three south Sumatra earthquakes (2007, M _w 8.5; 2007, M _w 7.9; 2010, M _w 7.8) recorded at PALK, a station in Sri Lanka. We find that E _r is a function of depth; shallower earthquakes have higher E _r values than the deeper ones. Thus, E _r may be indicative of tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. As M _w and E _r increase so does the tsunami potential. In addition to the parameter E _r, the radiated seismic energy, E _s, may be estimated from the regional seismograms in India using empirical Green??s function technique. The technique yields reliable E _s for the great Sumatra and Nias earthquakes. E _r and E _s computed from VISK data, along with M _w and focal mechanism, may be useful in estimating tsunami potential along the east coast of India from earthquakes in the Sumatra?CAndaman region in less than ~20?min.     

Seismicity of Gujarat

Paper describes tectonics, earthquake monitoring, past and present seismicity, catalogue of earthquakes and estimated return periods of large earthquakes in Gujarat state, western India. The Gujarat region has three failed Mesozoic rifts of Kachchh, Cambay, and Narmada, with several active faults. Kachchh district of Gujarat is the only region outside Himalaya-Andaman belt that has high seismic hazard of magnitude 8 corresponding to zone V in the seismic zoning map of India. The other parts of Gujarat have seismic hazard of magnitude 6 or less. Kachchh region is considered seismically one of the most active intraplate regions of the World. It is known to have low seismicity but high hazard in view of occurrence of fewer smaller earthquakes of M????6 in a region having three devastating earthquakes that occurred during 1819 (M _w7.8), 1956 (M _w6.0) and 2001 (M _w7.7). The second in order of seismic status is Narmada rift zone that experienced a severely damaging 1970 Bharuch earthquake of M5.4 at its western end and M????6 earthquakes further east in 1927 (Son earthquake), 1938 (Satpura earthquake) and 1997 (Jabalpur earthquake). The Saurashtra Peninsula south of Kachchh has experienced seismicity of magnitude less than 6.     

Acceleration response spectra for the earthquakes of the southwestern flank of the Baikal Rift Zone

The acceleration response spectra of earthquakes with M = 4–6.5 in the southwestern part of the Baikal Rift Zone have been studied. The absorption properties of the medium and the attenuation of seismic signals in the study area were determined. Average acceleration response spectra were obtained for regional earthquakes. A comparative analysis of the acceleration response spectra was made for earthquake focal mechanisms with different senses of motion: reverse fault, reverse slip, strike slip, and oblique slip. The effect of the sense of fault motion in the seismic source on acceleration response spectra was determined.     

The 1980, 1997 and 1998 Azores earthquakes and some seismo-tectonic implications

We have studied the focal mechanisms of the 1980, 1997 and 1998 earthquakes in the Azores region from body-wave inversion of digital GDSN (Global Digital Seismograph Network) and broadband data. For the 1980 and 1998 shocks, we have obtained strike–slip faulting, with the rupture process made up of two sub-events in both shocks, with total scalar seismic moments of 1.9 × 10¹⁹ Nm (M_w = 6.8) and 1.4 × 10¹⁸ Nm (M_w = 6.0), respectively. For the 1997 shock, we have obtained a normal faulting mechanism, with the rupture process made up of three sub-events, with a total scalar seismic moment of 7.7 × 10¹⁷ Nm (M_w = 5.9). A common characteristic of these three earthquakes was the shallow focal depth, less than 10 km, in agreement with the oceanic-type crust. From the directivity function of Rayleigh (LR) waves, we have identified the NW–SE plane as the rupture plane for the 1980 and 1998 earthquakes with the rupture propagating to the SE. Slow rupture velocity, about of 1.5 km/s, has been estimated from directivity function for the 1980 and 1998 earthquakes. From spectral analysis and body-wave inversion, fault dimensions, stress drop and average slip have been estimated. Focal mechanisms of the three earthquakes we have studied, together with focal mechanisms obtained by other authors, have been used in order to obtain a seismotectonic model for the Azores region. We have found different types of behaviour present along the region. It can be divided into two zones: Zone I, from 30°W to 27°W; Zone II, from 27°W to 23°W, with a change in the seismicity and stress direction from Zone I. In Zone I, the total seismic moment tensor obtained corresponded to left-lateral strike–slip faulting with horizontal pressure and tension axes in the E–W and N–S directions, respectively. In Zone II, the total seismic moment tensor corresponded to normal faulting, with a horizontal tension axis trending NE–SW, normal to the Terceira Ridge. The stress pattern for the whole region corresponds to horizontal extension with an average seismic slip rate of 4.4 mm/yr.     

Seismicity of the Baikal rift system from regional network observations

In the paper we report the state-of-the-art of seismicity study in the Baikal rift system and the general results obtained. At present, the regional earthquake catalog for fifty years of the permanent instrumental observations consists of over 185,000 events. The spatial distribution of the epicenters, which either gather along well-delineated belts or in discrete swarms is considered in detail for different areas of the rift system. At the same time, the hypocenters are poorly constrained making it difficult to identify the fault geometry. Clustered events like aftershock sequences or earthquake swarms are typical patterns in the region; moreover, aftershocks of M ⩾ 4.7 earthquakes make up a quarter of the whole catalog. The maximum magnitude of earthquakes recorded instrumentally is M_LH7.6 for a strike-slip event in the NE part of the Baikal rift system and M_LH6.8 for a normal fault earthquake in the central part of the rift system (Lake Baikal basin). Predominant movement type is normal faulting on NE striking faults with a left lateral strike-slip component on W–E planes. In conclusion, some shortcomings of the seismic network and data processing are pointed out.     

Process Analysis of In-situ Strain during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake—Data from the Stress Monitoring Station at Shandan

Abstract: There were huge life and property losses during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. Strain fluctuation curves were completely recorded at stress observatory stations in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and its surroundings in the process of the earthquake. This paper introduces the geological background of the Wenchuan earthquake and the profile of in-situ stress monitoring stations. In particular, data of 174 earthquakes (Ms4.0-Ms8.5) were processed and analyzed with various methods, which were recorded at the Shandan station from August 2007 to December 2008. The results were compared with other seismic data, and further analyses were done for the recoded strain seismic waves, co-seismic strain stepovers, pre-earthquake strain valleys, Earth’s free oscillations before and after the earthquake and their physical implications. During the Wenchuan earthquake, the strainmeter recorded a huge extensional strain of 70 seconds, which shows that the Wenchuan earthquake is a rupture process predominated by thrusting. Significant precursory strain anomalies were detected 48 hours, 30 hours, 8 hours and 37 minutes before the earthquake. The anomalies are very high and their forms are very similar to that of the main shock. Similar anomalies can also be found in strain curves of other shocks greater than Ms7.0, indicating that such anomalies are prevalent before a great earthquake. In this paper, it is shown that medium aftershocks (Ms5.5-6.0) can also cause Earth’s free oscillations. Study of free oscillations is of great significance to understand the internal structure of the Earth and focal mechanisms of earthquakes and to recognize slow shocks, thus providing a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of geological disasters and the prediction of future earthquakes.     

Prediction of strong earthquake within the southwestern shelf of Sakhalin Island and its realization during the August 2, 2007, Nevelsk earthquake

Materials of the long- and short-term predictions of the destructive earthquake with the magnitude M _LH = 6.6 ± 0.6 within the southwestern shelf of Sakhalin Island are described. The long-term prediction was issued in December 2005 and was affirmed by the Russian Council of Experts on Earthquake Forecasting and Seismic Hazard Assessment in August 2006. The August 17(18), 2006, Gornozavodsk earthquake with a magnitude of M _w = 5.6 was the beginning of the realization of this prediction. Six days after its occurrence, the short-term prediction of a much more serious seismic event in the alarm region was prepared. One year later, the prediction of the August 2, 2007, Nevelsk earthquake with a magnitude of M _w = 6.2 (M _LH = 6.2) proved to be correct.     

Damage risk assessment of breakwaters under tsunami attack

Turkey was struck by two major events on 17 August and 12 November 1999, named Izmit (M _w = 7.4) and Düzce (M _w = 7.2) earthquakes, respectively. Rubble mound breakwaters in Izmit Bay experienced little damage, as forecasted by the new risk assessment model in which tsunami occurrence risk was included in the damage estimations. In order to determine the occurrence probability of structural damage under design conditions, including the environmental loading parameters of tsunami and storm waves, tidal range and storm surge, the Conditional Expections Monte Carlo simulation was applied in the risk assessment model developed in this study for the Esenköy Fishery Harbour, Turkey. A tsunami was not the key design parameter when compared to storm waves for the main breakwater of the harbour, however, in places with great seismic activity, the tsunami risk should be important depending on the occurrence probability and magnitude of the tsunami.     

Near-surface earthquakes in the Baltic shield, notably Sweden

A recent series of Swedish earthquakes at a focal depth not exceeding 2–3 km, the largest with I_O = V + (MSK scale) andM_L = 3.2 shows that relatively strong seismic activity can occur in the uppermost part of the Baltic Shield. During the last 15 years several near-surface earthquakes have occurred in this region, as indicated by recorded Rg-waves and/or macroseismic data. Many events are located along the coast of central Sweden, suggesting a seismic belt of minor, near-surface activity, which should be considered in connection with the radioactive waste storage in the Swedish bedrock. The appearance of Rg, common in seismic records of explosions and rockbursts, is not a sufficient discriminator between artificial events and earthquakes.     

Recognition of Strong Earthquake Prone Areas in the Altai–Sayan–Baikal Region

The locations of areas prone to strong earthquakes (M ≥ 6.0) in the Altai–Sayan–Baikal region are determined. Based on a scheme of morphostructural zoning of the region and by using the CORA-3 pattern recognition algorithm, all intersections of morphostructural lineaments are separated into two classes: the highly seismic intersections in the vicinities of which strong earthquakes can occur and low seismic in the vicinities of which only earthquakes with M < 6.0 are possible. Recognition was performed for the vectors the components of which were measured values of the geological–geophysical characteristics describing the respective intersection. The result obtained allows the zones of high seismic hazard to be identified more reliably in the region.

     

On the assessment of maximum earthquakes in the alps and adjacent areas

Strong tectonic earthquakes within the crust always occur on already existing faults, and they have the property of a shear rupture. Such earthquakes with surface-wave magnitudes M < 7 obviously have a geometric similarity. Because of this similarity and the validity of the Gutenberg and Richter's energy—magnitude relation, the expression M = 2 log₁₀ L + const., with L = focal length, is valid.The expression L_maxL^* for the maximum focal length, is also valid if L^* is the length of the rectilinear extent of the seismic line on which the maximum earthquake occurs. The bounds of L^* may be given by sharp bends and/or by traversing deep faults. Thus the maximum imaginable earthquake on a seismic line with the length L^* has the magnitude M_max = 2 log₁₀ L^* + const.For the investigated region — the Alps and adjacent areas — from the data of recent and historical strong earthquakes, it follows that M_max = 2 log₁₀ L^* + 1.7, if L^* is measured in kilometres. These limiting values lie in the centre-field of the magnitude range for maximum earthquakes, published by Shebalin in 1970. By the aid of this equation it is also possible to assess the upper limiting value of the accompanying maximum scale intensity.     

Estimation of maximum magnitude (M max ): Impending large earthquakes in northeast region,India

In the present study, the cumulative seismic energy released by earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5) for a period of 1897 to 2009 is analyzed for northeast (NE) India. For this purpose, a homogenized earthquake catalogue in moment magnitude (M _w ) has been prepared. Based on the geology, tectonics and seismicity, the study region is divided into three source zones namely, 1: Arakan-Yoma Zone (AYZ), 2: Himalayan Zone (HZ) and 3: Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ). The maximum magnitude (M _max ) for each source zone is estimated using Tsuboi’s energy blocked model. As per the energy blocked model, the supply of energy for potential earthquakes in an area is remarkably uniform with respect to time and the difference between the supply energy and cumulative energy released for a span of time, is a good indicator of energy blocked and can be utilized for the estimation of maximum magnitude (M _max ) earthquakes. The proposed process provides a more consistent model of gradual accumulation of strain and non-uniform release through large earthquakes can be applied in the assessment of seismic hazard. Energy blocked for source zone 1, zone 2 and zone 3 regions is 1.35×10¹⁷ Joules, 4.25×10¹⁷ Joules and 7.25×10¹⁷ Joules respectively and will act as a supply for potential earthquakes in due course of time. The estimated M _max for each source zone AYZ, HZ, and SPZ are 8.2, 8.6, and 8.7 respectively. M _max obtained from this model is well comparable with the results of previous workers from NE region.     

Thermal infrared anomalies as a precursor of strong earthquakes in the distant future

Satellite thermal infrared images contain valuable earthquake precursor information. Past studies concluded that such information appeared only a few days or dozens of days before an earthquake would occur. In our study, though, we observed that the time intervals between the thermal infrared precursor and an earthquake??s occurrence can be up to 10?years. An infrared image can also synchronously indicate the locations of additional future earthquakes with different epicenters within a region. The shape, area, intensity, and movement of thermal infrared anomaly areas are a combination of all the future strong earthquakes within a region. These distant future earthquakes are generally located near the edges, endpoints, or corners of the main structure, fine structures or periphery structures of a thermal infrared anomaly area and play a role in confining the anomaly area. There have not been any exceptions among the strong earthquakes we analyzed, which have included the 2011 Japan M _w 9 event, the 2010 Yushu M _S 7.1 event, the 2008 Wenchuan M _S 8 event, and many other strong events following the 2004 Sumatra M _S 9 event. Surprisingly, some of the earthquakes can outline an area of elevated temperature observed many months ago. If we can roughly locate these potential epicenters through the analysis of thermal infrared images and combining the analysis with other information, and then dynamically monitor them, it may be easier to observe the precursor of an earthquake and predict its occurrence.     

Characteristics of ring seismicity in different depth ranges before large and great earthquakes in the Sumatra region

Characteristics of the seismicity in depth ranges 0–33 and 34–70 km before ten large and great (M _w = 7.0−9.0) earthquakes of 2000–2008 in the Sumatra region are studied, as are those in the seismic gap zones where no large earthquakes have occurred since at least 1935. Ring seismicity structures are revealed in both depth ranges. It is shown that the epicenters of the main seismic events lie, as a rule, close to regions of overlap or in close proximity to “shallow” and “deep” rings. Correlation dependences of ring sizes and threshold earthquakes magnitudes on energy of the main seismic event in the ring seismicity regions are obtained. Identification of ring structures in the seismic gap zones (in the regions of Central and South Sumatra) suggests active processes of large earthquake preparation proceed in the region. The probable magnitudes of imminent seismic events are estimated from the data on the seismicity ring sizes.     

Spectral source parameters for weak local earthquakes in the Pannonian basin

Dynamic source parameters are estimated from P-wave displacement spectra for 18 local earthquakes (1.2 < M_L < 3.7) that occurred in two seismically active regions of Hungary between 1995 and 2004. Although the geological setting of the two areas is quite different, their source parameters cannot be distinguished. The source dimensions range from 200 to 900 m, the seismic moment from 6.3x10¹¹ to 3.48×10¹⁴ Nm, the stress drop from 0.13 to 6.86 bar, and the average displacement is less than 1 cm for all events. The scaling relationship between seismic moment and stress drop indicates a decrease in stress drop with decreasing seismic moment. A linear relationship of M _w = 0.71 M _L + 0.92 is obtained between local magnitude and moment magnitude.