An empirical model for the 11-year cosmic-ray modulation

An analysis of monthly data from nine world-wide neutron monitoring stations over the period 1965–1975 is carried out for the study of the long-term cosmic-ray modulation. In an attempt to gain insight into the relationships which exist between solar activity, high-speed solar wind streams and various terrestrial phenomena an empirical relation for the cosmic-ray modulation has been found. Accordingly the modulated cosmic-ray intensity is equal to the galactic cosmic-ray intensity corrected by a few appropriate solar, interplanetary and terrestrial activity indices which causes the disturbances in interplanetary space, multiplying with the corresponding time-lag of cosmic-ray intensity from each of these indices. This relation is well explained by a generalization of the Simpson solar wind model which has been proved by the spherically symmetric diffusion-convection theory.     

On reproduction of long-term cosmic-ray modulation as seen by neutron monitor stations

The dependence of cosmic-ray intensity on 21st solar cycle phenomena has been studied using monthly cosmic-ray values from nine world wide Neutron Monitoring Stations.For this purpose the long-term cosmic-ray modulation is modelled by treating the most appropriate source functions among various solar, interplanetary and terrestrial activity indices as the input and the cosmic-ray intensity as the output of a linear system taking into account the corresponding time-lag. In this way the modulated galactic cosmic-ray intensity has been reproduced to a certain degree as the cosmic-ray variations follow the observations with a standard deviation of ~ 10%. Still remaining short-term variations in all stations with periods of 2.7 and 3.7 months can possibly be related to the galactic origin of cosmic-rays.The Simpson solar wind model improved by the spherically symmetric diffusion-convection theory can describe our proposed method.     

Tensor anisotropy of cosmic rays

Long-termobservations of the muon intensity of galactic cosmic rays at the Nagoya (35°10′ N, 136°58′ E) and Yakutsk (62°01′ N, 129°43′ E) stations have revealed amplitude-phase annual and semiannual oscillations of the semidiurnal variation. These oscillations are attributable to the properties of the cosmic-ray anisotropy tensor that result from shielding by the interplanetary magnetic field and solar-wind shear flow. The mentioned tensor is also shown to have a north-south asymmetry.     

Time-evolution of cosmic-ray intensity modulation

Application of analyzing time-series into trigonometric series allows the investigation of cosmic-ray intensity variations in a wide periodicity range from a few months to 10 or even more years. By this technique, the amplitude and the phase of all observed fluctuations can be given. For this purpose, cosmic-ray data of five ground-based neutron-monitor stations for the time interval 1964–1985 have been analyzed.Two kinds of periodicities appeared in these data. The first one includes occurrences at periods greater than two years, as the ones of 10.41, 8.41, and 5.50 yr, which differ very little in amplitude from station to station but are similar in phase, and the second one includes periodicities smaller than two years (24, 12, 8, and 6 months) which are similar in all stations but appeared in variable time intervals.The possible origin of each observed variation due to a contribution either of cosmic-ray interaction in the upper atmosphere or to the solar dynamics is discussed.     

Multi messenger astronomy and CTA: TeV cosmic rays and electrons

Cosmic rays are a sample of solar, galactic and extragalactic matter. Their origin and properties are one of the most intriguing question in modern astrophysics. The most energetic events and active objects in the Universe: supernovae explosion, pulsars, relativistic jets, active galactic nuclei, have been proposed as sources of cosmic rays although unambiguous evidences have still to be found. Electrons, while comprising ∼1% of the cosmic radiation, have unique features providing important information regarding the origin and propagation of cosmic rays in the Galaxy that is not accessible from the study of the cosmic-ray nuclear components due to their differing energy-loss processes. In this paper we will analyse, discussing the experimental uncertainties and challenges, the most recent measurements on cosmic-ray nuclei and, in particular, electrons with energies from tens of GeV into the TeV region.     

On the link between northern fennoscandian climate and length of the quasi-eleven-year cycle in galactic cosmic-ray flux

Bidecadal fluctuations in terrestrial climate were analyzed. It was shown that this variability might arise if Earth's climate reacts to galactic cosmic-ray intensity, integrated over its full quasi-11-year cycle. It was further shown that this integral effect should also lead to an effective link between climate and the duration of the quasi-11-year cycle in cosmic ray flux. That, in turn, must result in appearance of some connection between climate and the length of the solar cycle, which is currently a topic of active debate. Analyses of temperature proxies, obtained for northern Fennoscandia, confirmed the connection of the climate in this region and the length of the cycle in galactic cosmic-ray intensity. Decadal and bidecadal variability of integrated cosmic-ray flux was quantitatively estimated.     

Energy losses and modulation of galactic cosmic rays

Numerical solutions of the cosmic-ray transport equation for the interplanetary region and including the effects of diffusion, convection, and energy loss, have been obtained for a galactic differential number-density spectrum of gaussian form, central kinetic energyT ₀, and a width at half height maximum of 0.1T ₀. These solutions have been used to show the redistribution in energy, and the reduction in number density, within the solar cavity. The mean energy loss is shown to be usefully approximated by the force-field potential when /T ₀1/2. The principal finding is that galactic cosmic-ray protons and helium nuclei, with kinetic energies less than about 80 MeV/nucleon, virtually, are completely excluded from near Earth by convective effects. As a result of this exclusion, it is found that it is not possible to demodulate the proton and helium-nuclei spectra, observed in 1964–65, to obtain information about low-energy galactic cosmic rays.     

Study of Cosmic-Ray Intensity Variations Associated with Anomalous,Long-Duration High-Speed Solar Wind Streams in 2003

High-speed solar wind streams (HSWS) were identified for solar cycles 22 and 23 (up to 2004). Preliminarily, HSWS were classified in three groups according to their continuous period of occurrence. In the declining phase of solar cycle 23, 2003 is found to be anomalous, showing a very large number of HSWS events of long duration (> ten days). We have studied the effect of HSWS on the cosmic-ray intensity as well as their relationship with geomagnetic disturbance index Ap on yearly, daily, and hourly bases. The yearly average of solar-wind speed was also found to be maximum in 2003. Being within the declining phase of solar activity, the occurrence of solar flares in 2003 is quite low. In particular during HSWS, no solar flares have been observed. Associations with cosmic-ray changes do not support the notion that the HSWS are usually effective in producing significant cosmic-ray decreases. Out of 12 HSWS events observed during the period 2002 (December) to 2003, four events of significant cosmic-ray decreases at all the stations have been selected for further analysis. The cosmic-ray intensity has been found to decrease during the first phase of the event (first five days of HSWS) at all three neutron-monitor stations situated at different latitudes with different cutoff rigidities. The rigidity spectra of observed decreases in cosmic-ray intensity for these four cases have been found to be significantly different than that of Fds (Forbush decrease). In two cases the spectra are softer, whereas in the other two they are harder than that of Fds. However, if the average of all four events is considered together then the spectra of the decrease in cosmic rays during HSWS exactly match that of Fds. Such a result implies that initially individual events should be considered, instead of combining them together, as was done earlier. The Ap index is also found to generally increase in the first phase of the event. However, the four events selected on the basis of cosmic-ray decrease are not always associated with enhanced values of the Ap index. As such, the significance of our study is that further detailed investigations for much longer periods and on an event-by-event basis is required to understand the effect of coronal-hole-associated HSWS.     

TWO COMPONENTS OF COSMIC-RAY MODULATION

The long-term modulation of galactic cosmic rays is investigated from 1957 up to 1992 analysing the dynamic and the quasi-stationary components, separately. It has been found that the dynamic component is characterized by the presence of two peaks at the maximum phase of each solar activity cycle. We infer that the time interval between the two peaks corresponds to a period (well-related to the polar heliomagnetic reversal) in which somewhat decreased activity occurs for intense and long-lasting solar events. In fact, a contemporary dip in the magnetic energy released from the Sun was observed, in agreement with the suggested double maximum displayed by the basic features of the 11-year solar-activity cycle (Gnevyshev, 1977, and references therein). Moreover, the dynamic component of cosmic-ray modulation often shows a multi-structured profile in both peaks of activity, fairly well-connected with the pattern of the green corona brightness. On the other hand, analysing the quasi-stationary long-term trend of cosmic-ray intensity we pick out a good relationship between periods of enhanced cosmic-ray modulation and the area expansion of coronal intensity levels. The relevance of our results for solar-terrestrial forecasting is underlined.     

Galactic cosmic ray modulation from 1965–1970

Numerical solutions of the cosmic-ray equation of transport within the solar cavity and including the effects of diffusion, convection, and energy losses due to adiabatic deceleration, have been used to reproduce the modulation of galactic electrons, protons and helium nuclei observed during the period 1965–1970. Kinetic energies between 10 and 10⁴ MeV/nucleon are considered. Computed and observed spectra (where data is available) are given for the years 1965, 1968, 1969 and 1970 together with the diffusion coefficients. These diffusion coefficients are assumed to be of separable form in rigidity and radial dependence, and are consistent with the available magneticfield power spectra. The force-field solutions are given for these diffusion coefficients and galactic spectra and compared with the numerical solutions. For each of the above years we have (i) determined the radial density gradients near Earth; (ii) found the mean energy losses suffered by galactic particles as they diffuse to the vicinity of the Earth's orbit; (iii) shown quantitatively the exclusion of low-energy galactic protons and helium nuclei from near Earth by convective effects; and (iv), for nuclei of a given energy near Earth, obtained their distribution in energy before entering the solar cavity. It is shown that the energy losses and convection lead to near-Earth nuclei spectra at kinetic energies ≤100 MeV/nucleon in which the differential intensity is proportional to the kinetic energy with little dependence on the form of the galactic spectrum. This dependence is in agreement with the observed spectra of all species of atomic nuclei and we argue that this provides strong observational evidence for the presence of energy losses in the propagation process; and for the exclusion of low energy galactic nuclei from near Earth.     

Radio spectral changes in the haloes of galaxies seen edge-on

Results of a Monte-Carlo study of the one-dimensional propagation of cosmic-ray electrons in the galactic photon field are presented. The effect of a galactic wind on the change of the radio spectral index with height above the galactic plane is investigated in particular. The dependence of this relation on various physical quantities is also investigated. A comparison of the model results with the spectral index-height relation on NGC 4631 and NGC 891 strongly suggest that these two galaxies have dynamic haloes.     

Acceleration of cosmic-ray electrons by large-scale galactic spiral shocks — An observational report

The hypothesis that large-scale shocks accompanying spiral density waves are the main sources of cosmic-ray electrons for whole galactic disks has been tested utilizing results of 10.7 GHz observations of spiral galaxies. It is suggested that the 10.7 GHz emission of galactic disks is largely controlled by star-forming processes, and that large-scale shocks apparently play a minor role.     

The physical significance of the unusual worldwide fluctuations of cosmic-ray intensity on July 14–15, 1961

We have examined the characteristics of the unusual worldwide fluctuations of cosmic-ray intensity on July 14–15, 1961, using corrected hourly data from global network of neutron and meson detectors. A careful study of the associated solar, interplanetary and geophysical phenomena has also been made. These investigations lead us to recognise the dominant role played by the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Inhomogeneities (IMFI) in modulating galactic cosmic-ray flux received at earth during recovery from Forbush decreases. When approaching the earth from the sunward side the IMFI's scatter galactic cosmic rays diffusing towards solar equatorial plane from higher heliolatitudes on to the interplanetary magnetic-field lines which connect to earth. When propagating past the orbit of the earth, the IMFI's set up a flow of scattered galactic cosmic-ray flux in the general direction of the earth. Most of these cosmic rays probably sink in the sun. Transient Spatial Anisotropies are thus set up in the vicinity of the earth in cosmic-ray intensity as viewed by ground-based detectors. Depending upon the relative position of the region abounding in IMFI's and the earth, these short-lived anisotropies appear either from sunward or antisun directions. Sometimes the configuration is such as to set up bidirectional anisotropies. Implications of this broad picture are discussed qualitatively.Our analysis also enables us to place constraint on the mechanism responsible for heating the solar corona over active regions, which we feel must be taken into account by all theoretical models on the subject.This research is supported in part by U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research under grant AF-AFOSR-319-66. The paper was presented at the Tenth International Conference on Cosmic Rays, Calgary, June 18–29, 1967.Now at the Dept. of Physics and Astronomy, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, N.M., U.S.A.     

Long-term modulation of the Galactic cosmic-ray fluctuation spectrum

We study the temporal behavior of the power spectra for Galactic cosmic-ray fluctuations during the last two solar cycles. We use the 5-min data for 1980–2002 corrected for the barometric effect from two widely separated high-latitude cosmic-ray stations, Tixie Bay and Oulu. The cosmicray fluctuation spectrum is shown to be subjected to a regular long-term modulation with a period of about 11 years in phase with the solar cycle, in accordance with the variations in the inertial part of the turbulence spectrum for the interplanetary magnetic field. Based on independent measurements, we confirm the previously detected cosmic-ray fluctuation power enhancement at the maximum of the 11-year solar cycle and its subsequent decrease at minimum solar activity using new, more extensive data sets. We reach the conclusion about the establishment of a new cosmic-ray modulation phenomenon that has not been described previously in scientific literature.     

Consequences of CP-violation in cosmic-ray sources

In this paper we show that CP-violation is operating in most cosmic-ray sources such as black holes, active galactic nuclei, supernova remnants, and that this leads to the in-equality of the electron—positron component of cosmic rays.Further implications of this result are also discussed.     

Evidence for the deficiency of short cosmic ray pathlengths and a physically realistic explanation — The no-near-sources model

From our recent observations of the charge and energy spectra of cosmic-ray nuclei we have constructed secondary-to-primary charge ratios at the two ends of the charge spectrum. These ratios are found to be inconsistent with thead hoc leaky-box model of cosmic-ray propagation which leads to an exponential pathlength distribution. Models for which the pathlength distribution function is deficient in short pathlengths provide a more consistent picture. Several of these models are investigated, bothad hoc and physical. The physical model considered here is one for which detailed galactic propagation parameters and boundary conditions are used and for which there exists no near sources of cosmic rays over a time interval corresponding to a few times the cosmic-ray age.     

Markov stochastic technique to determine galactic cosmic ray sources distribution

A new numerical model of particle propagation in the Galaxy has been developed, which allows the study of cosmic-ray production and propagation in 2D. The model has been used to solve cosmic ray diffusive transport equation with a complete network of nuclear interactions using the time backward Markov stochastic process by tracing the particles’ trajectories starting from the Solar System back to their sources in the Galaxy. This paper describes a further development of the model to calculate the contribution of various galactic locations to the production of certain cosmic ray nuclei observed at the Solar System.     

Simulation of the temporal variations of the galactic cosmic-ray intensity at neutron monitor energies

We show that the temporal variations of the integrated galactic cosmic-ray intensity at neutron monitor energies (approximately above 3 GeV) can be reproduced applying a semi-empirical 1-D diffusion-convection model for the cosmic-ray transport in interplanetary space. We divide the interplanetary region into `magnetic shells' and find the relative reduction that each shell causes to the cosmic-ray intensity. Then the cosmic-ray intensity at the Earth is reproduced by the successive influence of all shells between the Earth and the heliospheric termination shock. We find that the position of the termination shock does not significantly affect the cosmic-ray intensity although there are some differences between the results for a constant and a variable termination shock radius. We also reproduce the cosmic-ray intensity applying the analytical solution of the force-field approximation (Perko, 1987) and find that the results cannot fit the observed data. Our results are compared with the Climax (geomagnetic cut-off 3 GV) and Huancayo (geomagnetic cut-off 13 GV) neutron monitor measurements for almost two solar cycles (1976–1996).     

Equilibrium spectra of secondary cosmic-ray positrons in the galaxy and the spectrum of cosmic gamma-rays resulting from their annihilation

A general formula is derived for calculating the -ray spectrum resulting from the annihilation of cosmic-ray positrons. This formula is used to calculate annihilation--ray spectra from various equilibrium spectra of secondary galactic positrons. These spectra are then compared with the -ray spectra produced by other astrophysical processes.Particular attention is paid to the form of the -ray spectrum resulting from the annihilation of positrons having kinetic energies below 5 keV. It is found that for mean leakage times out of the galaxy of less than 400 million years, most of the positrons annihilating near rest come from the -decay of unstable nuclei produced in cosmic-ray p-C¹², p-N¹⁴, and p-O¹⁶ interactions, rather than from pi-meson decay. It is further found that the large majority of these positrons will annihilate from an S state of positronium and that 3/4 of these will produce a three-photon annihilation continuum rather than the two-photon line spectrum at 0.51 MeV. The results of numerical calculations of the -ray fluxes from these processes are given. It is concluded that annihilation -rays from the galactic halo may remain forever masked by a metagalactic continuum. However, an 0.51 MeV line from the disk may well be detectable. It is most reasonable to assume that this line is formed predominantly by the annihilation of the CNO -decay positrons. Under this assumption, the intensity of the line becomes a sensitive measure of the galactic cosmic-ray flux below 1000 MeV/nucleon.     

Global Heliospheric Parameters and Cosmic-Ray Modulation: An Empirical Relation for the Last Decades

We study empirical relations between the modulation of galactic cosmic rays quantified in terms of the modulation potential and the following global heliospheric parameters: the open solar magnetic flux, the tilt angle of the heliospheric current sheet, and the polarity of the heliospheric magnetic field. We show that a combination of these parameters explains the majority of the modulation potential variations during the neutron monitor era 1951 – 2005. Two empirical models are discussed: a quasi-linear model and a model assuming a power-law relation between the modulation potential and the magnetic flux. Both models describe the data fairly well. These empirical models provide a simple tool for evaluating various cosmic-ray related effects on different time scales. The models can be extended backwards in time or used for predictions, if the corresponding global heliospheric variables can be independently estimated.