Predictions for the Aurigid Outburst of 2007 September 1

The September 2007 encounter of Earth with the 1-revolution dust trail of comet C/1911 N1 (Kiess) is the most highly anticipated dust trail crossing of a known long period comet in the next 50 years. The encounter was modeled to predict the expected peak time, duration, and peak rate of the resulting outburst of Aurigid shower meteors. The Aurigids will radiate with a speed of 67 km/s from a radiant at R.A. = 92°, Decl. = +39° (J2000) in the constellation Auriga. The expected peak time is 11:36 ± 20 min UT, 2007 September 1, and the shower is expected to peak at Zenith Hourly Rate = 200/h during a 10-min interval, being above half this value during 25 min. The meteor outburst will be visible by the naked eye from locations in Mexico, the Western provinces of Canada, and the Western United States, including Hawaii and Alaska. A concerted observing campaign is being organized. Added in proof: first impression of the shower. Prepared as a contribution to the conference proceedings of “Meteoroids 2007”, to be published in the journal “Earth, Moon, and Planets”.     

Meteor outbursts from long-period comet dust trails

Long-period comets have narrow one-revolution old dust trails that can cause meteor outbursts when encountered by Earth. To facilitate observing campaigns that will characterize and perhaps help find Earth-threatening, long-period comets from their trace of meteoric debris, we use past accounts of outbursts from 14 different showers to calculate the future dust trail positions near Earth’s orbit. We also examine known near-Earth, long-period comets and identify five potential new showers, which can be utilized to learn more about these objects. We demonstrate that it is the one-revolution trail that is responsible for meteor outbursts. A method that calculates in what year these showers are likely to return and at what hour is presented. The calculations improve on earlier approximate methods that used the Sun’s reflex motion to gauge the trail motion relative to Earth’s orbit.     

The Tajikistan superbolide of July 23, 2008. I. Trajectory,orbit, and preliminary fall data

The results of the atmospheric trajectory, radiant, heliocentric orbit, and preliminary strewn field calculations for an extremely bright slow‐moving fireball are presented. In the evening hours of July 23, 2008, a bright object entered Earth's atmosphere over Tajikistan. The fireball had a ?20.3 maximum absolute magnitude and a spectacularly long persistent dust trail remained visible over a widespread region of Tajikistan for about 28 minutes after sunset. The fireball was also recorded by a visible‐light satellite system at 14 h 45 min 25 s UT, and the dust trail was imaged by video and photocameras. A unique aspect of this event is that it was detected by two infrasound and five seismic stations too. The bolide was first recorded at a height of 38.2 km, reached its maximum brightness at a height of 35.0 km, and finished at a height of 19.6 km. The first breakup occurred under an aerodynamic pressure of approximately 1.6 MPa, similar to the values derived for breakups of the scarcely reported meteorite‐dropping bolides. The fireball's trajectory and dynamic results suggest that meteorite survival is likely. The meteoroid followed an Apollo‐like asteroid orbit comparable to those derived for previously recovered meteorites with accurately known orbits.     

Interplanetary dust dynamics: III. Dust released from P/Encke: Distribution with respect to the zodiacal cloud

Numerical simulations of the trajectories of over 200 30-μm-radius dust particles released by Comet P/Encke were designed to study the evolution and redistribution of orbital elements as the dust particles spiral in toward the Sun. The dust assumes Jupiter crossing orbits immediately after release due to radiation pressure, while the comet's orbit remains inside Jupiter's orbital path. By the time the dust particles have spiraled past Jupiter, information on their origin from P/Encke is erased from the distribution in orbital elements. The primary objective of this study is to compare the observed spatial distribution of zodiacal/interplanetary dust with that of the model cloud inside Jupiter's orbit. The observed location of the plane of maximum dust density “symmetry plane” of the zodiacal cloud is compared to a least-square-fit plane of the model cloud. A clear correlation between the two planes is found. The variation of the observed inclination and nodes with heliocentric distance agrees also, at least qualitatively, with that found in the model cloud. The hypothesis that short-period comets may have contributed in a major way to the zodiacal cloud is compatible with these results. The study is directly relevant to, and supports, Whipple's suggestion that Comet P/Encke may have been a major source to the zodiacal cloud.     

Meteor Outburst Profiles and Cometary Ejection Models

The spatial structure of meteor streams, and the activity profiles of their corresponding meteor showers, depend firstly on the distribution of meteoroid orbits soon after ejection from the parent comet nucleus, and secondly on the subsequent dynamical evolution. The latter increases in importance as more time elapses. For younger structures within streams, notably the dust trails that cause sharp meteor outbursts, it is the cometary ejection model (meteoroid production rate as a function of time through the several months of the comet’s perihelion return, and velocity distribution of the meteoroids released) that primarily determines the shape and width of the trail structure. This paper describes how a trail cross section can be calculated once an ejection model has been assumed. Such calculations, if made for a range of ejection model parameters and compared with observed parameters of storms and outbursts, can be used to constrain quantitatively the process of meteoroid ejection from the nucleus, including the mass distribution of ejected meteoroids.     

A comparison of some observations of the Galilean satellites with Sampson's tables

An analysis is made of two series of photographic observations of the Galilean satellites of Jupiter. In the comparison of theory with observation, the aim of this work is to solve for systematic errors in the observations as well as those in the theory. The observations are those made by D. Pascu with the McCormick refractor during the apparition of 1967–1968 and with the 26" refractor of the U.S. Naval Observatory in 1973. Neutral density filters were used for magnitude compensation between the planet and the satellites as well as between the satellites themselves. Preliminary positions were derived by the trail/scale method using a scale value derived from scale plates taken during the observational program. The mean error of these observations is expected to be about ±0".10. The computed positions are those supplied by the Bureau des Longitudes and are based on Sampson's theory. Both intersatellary and planet-satellite positions were used in the comparison of theory with observation. The least squares adjustment included as unknowns, corrections to the longitudes, inclinations and scale for both observation types, and an additional periodic term to account for residual phase defect for the planet-satellite coordinates. The validity of the results is discussed in terms of the unknowns introduced, the correlations between them and the reduction of the residuals.     

The relationship between the semi-major axis, mass index and age of the Leonid meteor shower

Owing to sublimation of ice, comet nuclei eject dust particles when they are near to the sun. Those particles assume velocities and then vary their orbits to ones similar to that of the comet. The most notable difference between the orbit of the parent comet and those of the particles is their semi-major axes. This difference (Δ a ) has been widely used in modern meteor shower predictions. Observational evidence of the distribution showed that it is a function of Δ a , and the age of the dust trail. However, the relation is not well known. In this paper, a simplified relation between Δ a , the mass index ( s ) and the age of the dust trail is presented, taking the instance of a recent Leonid meteor shower.     

Cometary dust trail associated with Rosetta mission target: 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

A thin, bright dust cloud, which is associated with the Rosetta mission target object (67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko), was observed after the 2002 perihelion passage. The neckline structure or dust trail nature of this cloud is controversial. In this paper, we definitively identify the dust trail and the neckline structure using a wide-field CCD camera attached to the Kiso 1.05-m Schmidt telescope. The dust trail of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko was evident as scattered sunlight in all images taken between September 9, 2002 and February 1, 2003, whereas the neckline structure became obvious only after late 2002. We compared our images with a semi-analytical dynamic model of dust grains emitted from the nucleus. A fading of the surface brightness of the dust trail near the nucleus enabled us to determine the typical maximum size of the grains. Assuming spherical compact particles with a mass density of 10³ kg m⁻³ and an albedo of 0.04, we deduced that the maximum diameter of the dust particles was approximately 1 cm. We found that the mass-loss rate of the comet at the perihelion was on or before the 1996 apparition, while the mass-loss rate averaged over the orbit reached . The result is consistent with the studies of the dust cloud emitted in the 2002/2003 return. Therefore, we can infer that the activity of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko has showed no major change over the past dozen years or so, and the largest grains are cyclically injected into the dust tube lying along the cometary orbit.     

The dust trail of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

We report the detection of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko's dust trail and nucleus in 24 μm Spitzer Space Telescope images taken February 2004. The dust trail is not found in optical Palomar images taken June 2003. Both the optical and infrared images show a distinct neck-line tail structure, offset from the projected orbit of the comet. We compare our observations to simulated images using a Monte Carlo approach and a dynamical model for comet dust. We estimate the trail to be at least one orbit old (6.6 years) and consist of particles of size ?100 μm. The neck-line is composed of similar sized particles, but younger in age. Together, our observations and simulations suggest grains 100 μm and larger in size dominate the total mass ejected from the comet. The radiometric effective radius of the nucleus is 1.87±0.08 km, derived from the Spitzer observation. The Rosetta spacecraft is expected to arrive at and orbit this comet in 2014. Assuming the trail is comprised solely of 1 mm radius grains, we compute a low probability (∼¹⁰⁻³) of a trail grain impacting with Rosetta during approach and orbit insertion.     

Dust Trails of 8P/Tuttle and the Unusual Outbursts of the Ursid Shower

We calculate the position of dust trails from comet 8P/Tuttle, in an effort to explain unusual Ursid meteor shower outbursts that were seen when the comet was near aphelion. Comet 8P/Tuttle is a Halley-type comet in a 13.6-year orbit, passing just outside of Earth's orbit. We find that the meteoroids tend to be trapped in the 12:14 mean motion resonance with Jupiter, while the comet librates in a slightly shorter period orbit around the 13:15 resonance. It takes 6 centuries to decrease the perihelion of the meteoroid orbits enough to intersect Earth's orbit, during which time the meteoroids and comet separate in mean anomaly by 6 years, thus explaining the 6-year lag between the comet's return and Ursid outbursts. The resonances also prevent dispersion along the comet orbit and limit viewing to only one year in each return. We identified past dust trail encounters with dust trails from 1392 (Dec. 1945) and 1378 (Dec. 1986) and predicted another outburst on 2000 December 22 at around 7:29 and 8:35 UT, respectively, from dust trails dating to the 1405 and 1392 returns. This event was observed from California using video and photographic techniques. At the same time, five Global-MS-Net stations in Finland, Japan, and Belgium counted meteors using forward meteor scatter. The outburst peaked at 8:06±07 UT, December 22, at zenith hourly rate ∼90 per hour, and the Ursid rates were above half peak intensity during 4.2 h. We find that most Ursid orbits do scatter around the anticipated positions, confirming the link with comet 8P/Tuttle and the epoch of ejection. The 1405 and 1392 dust trails appear to have contributed similar amounts to the activity profile. Some orbits provide a hint of much older debris being present as well. This work is the strongest evidence yet for the relevance of mean motion resonances in Halley-type comet dust trail evolution.     

Photographic Observations of the 1996 Leonid Fireballs in Japan

Several Leonid fireballs were successfully photographed by the Japanese Fireball Network and by other observers in Japan on 16 November, 1996. A totals of seven of these were simultaneously observed from two or more stations, from which the orbital and physical data were deduced. The radiant of these fireballs were very small, only 0.1°, similar to that of the 1991 Perseids. The 1996 Leonids showed a lower magnitude distribution index similar to those obtained in the 1961 and 1965 Leonids. All of these showers occurred before perihelion passage of the parent comet. We conclude that we have already encountered the elongated front part of the dust trail of the Leonid parent comet, where the trail is probably composed of larger dust particles. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The α-Monocerotids meteor outburst: the cross section of a comet dust trail

One minute counts obtained during the meteor outburst of α-Monocerotids on November 22, 1995, are analyzed in order to examine the possibility of filamentary structure in the stream profile. None is found. It is argued that far-comet type outbursts are due to the Earth's passage through the dust trail of a long period comet, thus offering a direct means of studying such comet dust trails. Hence, the meteor stream activity curve is the first accurate cross section of dust densities through a comet dust trail.     

Aerosol plume after the Chelyabinsk bolide

In this work, the bolide is studied as an atmospheric event causing significant release of meteoritic dust into the stratosphere. Ground-based pictures taken by eyewitnesses and images from the Japan geostationary satellite MTSAT-2 are used as a database. The analysis of the ground-based pictures allows the altitude of the main burst to be estimated as 22.9 ± 1.6 km. It is shown that the top of the cloud formed due to the main burst rose to 11 km for about 60–80 s due to convection, which provides an estimate of the maximum vertical velocity of 130–180 m/s. According to calculations, the upper part of the trail is affected by a strong wind drift and is located at an altitude of >53 km, in the mesosphere. The MTSAT-2 data show that the mesospheric part of the trail traveled southwestward, while the stratospheric part, northeastward, with velocities higher than 100 km/h.     

Settling and growth of dust particles in a laminar phase of a low-mass solar nebula

It is considered that some vertical convection as well as possible turbulence in an early phase of solar nebula soon terminates owing to diminution of the temperature dependence of dust opacity due to rapid growth of dust particles. We reexamine settling and growth of dust particles in the subsequent laminar phase of the solar nebula in detail, treating a dust layer as a two-component fluid composed of the dust and the gas. We obtain analytic expressions for the settling path, the growing size, and the settling time. The settling process is divided into two phases, i.e., an early gas-dominant phase and a later dust-dominant phase. So far, only the former phase, where the particle path finally turns from vertical to radial, has been investigated. In the latter phase, dust particles drag the gas, rather than the gas does dust particles. Consequently, the particle path turns from radial to vertical. Dust particles grow most appreciably and rapidly in a radially sweeping phase. The final radii of dust particles at the onset of gravitational instability of the dust layer are 20, 5.9, and 0.60 cm in the Earth's, Jupiter's, and Neptune's zones, respectively. These values are much smaller than those obtained previously by S.J. Weidenschilling [1980, Icarus44, 172–189] and Y. Nakagawa et al. [1981, Icarus45, 517–528]. The total settling times are 1.9 × 10³, 4.6 × 10³, and 2.8 × 10⁴ years in the above-mentioned three zones, respectively. These are somewhat smaller than those obtained by the previous studies. Most of the settling time is spent in the early vertically settling phase.     

A survey of debris trails from short-period comets

We observed 34 comets using the 24 μm camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope. Each image contains the nucleus and covers at least ¹⁰⁶ km of each comet's orbit. Debris trails due to mm-sized or larger particles were found along the orbits of 27 comets; 4 comets had small-particle dust tails and a viewing geometry that made debris trails impossible to distinguish; and only 3 had no debris trail despite favorable observing conditions. There are now 30 Jupiter-family comets with known debris trails, of which 22 are reported in this paper for the first time. The detection rate is >80%, indicating that debris trails are a generic feature of short-period comets. By comparison to orbital calculations for particles of a range of sizes ejected over 2 yr prior to observation, we find that particles comprising 4 debris trails are typically mm-sized while the remainder of the debris trails require particles larger than this. The lower-limit masses of the debris trails are typically ¹⁰¹¹ g, and the median mass loss rate is 2 kg/s. The mass-loss rate in trail particles is comparable to that inferred from OH production rates and larger than that inferred from visible-light scattering in comae.     

The dust trail of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko between 2004 and 2006

We report on observations of the dust trail of Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko (CG) in visible light with the Wide Field Imager at the ESO/MPG 2.2 m telescope at 4.7 AU before aphelion, and at with the MIPS instrument on board the Spitzer Space Telescope at 5.7 AU both before and after aphelion. The comet did not appear to be active during our observations. Our images probe large dust grains emitted from the comet that have a radiation pressure parameter β<0.01. We compare our observations with simulated images generated with a dynamical model of the cometary dust environment and constrain the emission speeds, size distribution, production rate and geometric albedo of the dust. We achieve the best fit to our data with a differential size distribution exponent of −4.1, and emission speeds for a β=0.01 particle of 25 m/s at perihelion and 2 m/s at 3 AU. The dust production rate in our model is on the order of 1000 kg/s at perihelion and 1 kg/s at 3 AU, and we require a dust geometric albedo between 0.022 and 0.044. The production rates of large (>) particles required to reproduce the brightness of the trail are sufficient to also account for the coma brightness observed while the comet was inside 3 AU, and we infer that the cross-section in the coma of CG may be dominated by grains of the order of .     

EVIDENCE OF HIGH COSMIC DUST CONCENTRATIONS IN LATE PLEISTOCENE POLAR ICE (20,000–14,000 YEARS BP)

Dust filtered from the lower portion of the Camp Century ice core (77°10'N, 61°08'W) has been analyzed for the presence of the cosmic dust indicators iridium and nickel using the neutron activation analysis technique. This study was carried out to test the hypothesis that the climatic change toward the end of the Last Ice Age was triggered by an incursion of nebular material into the Solar System. The analytical results are consistent with this hypothesis. Concentrations of Ir and Ni in the ice were one to two orders of magnitude higher during the latter portion of the Last Ice Age (19,700-14,200 years BP) as compared with current levels. Ir and Ni levels in 6 out of 8 samples suggest a total cosmic dust influx rate of about 0.5?3 times 10⁷ tons/yr to the Earth's surface as compared with about 1?7 x× 10⁵ tons/yr for the current influx. Elemental concentrations in 6 of the 8 dust samples ranged from 6? 96 ppb for Ir and < 60 to 3200 ppm for Ni. It is concluded that a major fraction of this invading dust would have been of submicron size in which case the concentration of light scattering particles would have been sufficient to significantly alter the light transmission properties of the Solar System and substantially affect the Earth's climate. These results mark the first time that cosmic dust deposition rates have been estimated for prehistoric times using the polar ice record.     

Real-Time Flux Density Measurements of the 2011 Draconid Meteor Outburst

During the 2011 outburst of the Draconid meteor shower, members of the Video Meteor Network of the International Meteor Organization provided, for the first time, fully automated flux density measurements in the optical domain. The data set revealed a primary maximum at 20:09 UT ± 5 min on 8 October 2011 (195.036° solar longitude) with an equivalent meteoroid flux density of (118 ± 10) × 10^?3/km²/h at a meteor limiting magnitude of +6.5, which is thought to be caused by the 1900 dust trail. We also find that the outburst had a full width at half maximum of 80 min, a mean radiant position of α = 262.2°, δ = +56.2° (±1.3°) and geocentric velocity of v_geo = 17.4 km/s (±0.5 km/s). Finally, our data set appears to be consistent with a small sub-maximum at 19:34 UT ±7 min (195.036° solar longitude) which has earlier been reported by radio observations and may be attributed to the 1907 dust trail. We plan to implement automated real-time flux density measurements for all known meteor showers on a regular basis soon.     

小行星(469219) Kamo`oalewa轨道的确定与误差分析

作为一颗与地球共轨道的小行星,(469219)Kamo'oalewa是一个具有很高研究价值的近地小天体,也是中国首次小行星探测计划的目标天体之一.针对其轨道特性,建立了兼顾太阳、地球和月球非球形引力作用的小行星动力学模型.并在该模型的基础上,利用国际小行星中心(Minor Planet Center,MPC)提供的2004|2018年间的光学观测数据对该小行星的轨道进行确定.拟合后观测残差的均方根误差约为0:2″(与美国喷气推进实验室的Horizons在线历表系统相当),其中2004年期间数据的观测残差有所改进.最后,对小行星(469219)Kamo'oalewa的轨道误差进行了详细分析,并预报了2020-2025年期间该小行星的轨道误差.     

Meteor Showers Originated from 73P/Schwassmann–Wachmann

The nucleus of the Comet 73P/Schwassmann–Wachmann had been split into many fragments at least past two returns. Since the related dense dust trail has been detected in the space infrared observation, the strong activity of the meteor shower is highly expected in the future. We applied the so-called dust-trail theory to this interesting object, and obtained several results on the future encounter with the dust trail. In this paper we introduce our results on the forecasts.