Simulating strong ground motion with the `k -2 ' kinematic source model: An application to the seismic hazard in the Erzincan basin, Turkey

We present a seismic hazard application of a kinematic broad-bandrupture model. This model is based on the k-square dislocation distribution concept (Herrero and Bernard, 1994).Synthetic seismograms are calculated in the far-field approximation with alayered velocity medium for the 13 March 1992 Erzincan earthquake.With a parametrization of the source constrained by other studies,the far-field contribution correctly fits the recorded strong ground motion, which presents a 0.5 to 2 Hz dominant frequency range.As the k-square model is particularly well adapted to synthetize realistic strong-motion at short distances from the fault,it is a reliable tool for calculating seismic hazard maps around active faults. We thus present a synthetic peak ground acceleration map associatedwith the 13 March 1992 activated fault, for a 60 km × 60 km regionaround the epicenter taking into account a smoothed velocity structure ofthe basin in agreement with the absence of significant site effects related to1D resonance deduced from the aftershock records study.This map is compared with several post seismic reports: macroseismicintensities, detailed distribution of damage, and soil cracking andliquefaction. Our model shows that the values of the peak acceleration andvelocity can explain the dominant spatial distributionof these effects, which concentrates in a narrow band along theactivated segment fault, and in particular at its southernextremity. These results enable us to present such maps forhypothetical future earthquake ruptures, located on the major visible orinferred active fault segments in and around the basin. The effects ofthese potential sources are analyzed in relation to the 1992 eventeffects in order to eliminate unknown site responses. We show that thesouthern part of the basin is particularly exposed because of thepresence of strike-slip faults,and that the western part of the basin would suffer a significantlyhigher strong motion levelthan during the 1992 event with the activation of moderate sizednormal faults evidenced on thesouthwestern edge of the basin.